Canada

Federal Vote Intentions

Canadians’ attitudes about COVID-19
Alert App, the potential second wave,
and mask wearing
17th August 2020
METHODOLOGY
The analysis in this report is based on results of a
survey conducted between August 11th-12th, 2020
among a sample of 1594 adults, 18 years of age or
older, living in Canada. The survey was conducted
using automated telephone interviews (Smart IVR).
Respondents were interviewed on both landlines
and cellular phones. The survey is intended to
represent the voting population of Canada.
The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research
and was sponsored by iPolitics.
The sampling frame was derived from both a
national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commerically available
sources and random digit dialing. The part of the
survey that dialed from the directory was conducted
as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces. In
the case of random digit dials, respondents were
asked the additional question of what region of the
country they resided in.
The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.5% and is
accurate 19 times out of 20.
(full methodology appears at the end of this report)
ABOUT MAINSTREET
Founded in 2010, Mainstreet Research is recognized
as one of Canada’s top public opinion and market
research firms. Since our founding, we have been
providing actionable and data-driven insights to
our clients to help them make their most important
evidence-based strategic decisions.
Mainstreet has an impressive track record in
accurately forecasting election results in Canada and
the United States and has become a trusted source
for comprehensive market research, analysis and
advice. Our insights are found in major media outlets
across the country.
Mainstreet Research is a proud corporate member
of MRIA, WAPOR and AAPOR and exceeds all
Canadian and international standards for market
research and public opinion research.
CONTACT INFORMATION
In Ottawa:
Quito Maggi, President and CEO
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto:
Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
Summary of Findings
• The Liberals have widened their lead over the Conservatives since May, thanks to
a small dip in Conservative support.
• Among decided and leaning voters, the Liberals led by Justin Trudeau have
43.2% support, while the Conservatives led by Andrew Scheer have 27.4%, the NDP
led by Jagmeet Singh has 14.1%. In comparison, the Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-
Francois Blanchet has 5.7% nationally, with 24.4% in Quebec. The Greens led by Jo-
Ann Roberts has 4.8%.
• The same regional differences that we have noticed in our previous polling
remain. The Liberals have substantial leads east in Manitoba, and this month they take
the lead in British Columbia.
• That said, the Conservatives still maintain a healthy lead in Alberta and the
Prairies.
• Another change from last month is that the Liberals also lead the Conservatives
among men and 18-34s.

• The poll also asked Canadians whether they felt that Black Canadians and
Indigenous peoples are treated less fairly than white Canadians in terms of dealing
with the police, the criminal justice system, and employment practices.
• We see significant differences between perceptions in how Black Canadians are
treated and Indigenous peoples are treated, with Canadians thinking that Indigenous
Canadians are treated worse.
• 66.1% of respondents think that Indigenous peoples are treated less fairly than
white Canadians by the police, and 62.2% think that Black Canadians are treated less
fairly.
• That said, it is an even split when it comes to treatment from the criminal justice
system and hiring, equal pay, and promotions. This is no surprise, given that the police
are under significant scrutiny right now, less so than the courts and employment
practices.
• The most significant differences in perception exist in federal vote intention. CPC
voters do not think that Black Canadians and Indigenous peoples are treated worse in
overwhelming numbers.
• Bloc voters feel the same about the treatment from the criminal justice system
and hiring, etc., but they think that both Indigenous peoples and Black Canadians are
treated less fairly by the police.
All Voters
If an election were held today, which party would you vote for?

13.1%

1.2%
1.9%
4% 36.2%

13.1%
All Voters

5.3%
Decided and Leaning
All Voters
25.3%

8%1.5%
2.1%
1.9%
5.2%
Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois
2.5% NDP, Green People's Party Another Party
5%
Undecided
15.6%
36.9%

41.3%
9.5%

All Voters
Decided and Leaning
5.5%
6.2%

30%
28.9%

Liberals Conservatives Bloc Québécois NDP Greens

Liberal Conservative Bloc Québécois

People's Party NDP, Party GreenUndecided
Another People's Party Another Party
 Have you installed the COVID-19 alert app that was
recently released by Health Canada?

19.8% 20.8%

19.8% 20.8%

10.3%
10.3%

49.1%
49.1%

Installed The App Haven’t Installed But Intend To Still Thinking About Installing

Installed The App Haven’t Installed

Haven’t ButAnd
Installed Intend To To Still Thinking About Installing
Don’t Intend

Haven’t Installed And Don’t Intend To

Do you have any privacy concerns about the COVID-19

app?
9.7%

9.7%

15.2%

15.2%

45.8%
45.8%

9.4% 9.4%

19.9%
19.9%

No Concerns Few Concerns Some Concerns Many Concerns Not sure

No Concerns Few Concerns Some Concerns Many Concerns Not sure

What are your thoughts about a potential second wave of
COVID-19?
12.7%

12.7%
31.6%

31.6%

24.3%
24.3%

31.4%
31.4%

Less Severe As Severe More Severe There Will Not Be A Second Wave

Less Severe As Severe More Severe There Will Not Be A Second Wave

Are you wearing a mask while conducting your daily

business?
4.9%

4.9%

22.2%

22.2%

72.9%
72.9%

Yes No Won't say

Yes No Won't say

Breakout Tables
If the federal election were held today, which party would you vote for?
(All Voters)
Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 36.2% 32.7% 39.6% 26.2% 34.4% 42.8% 43.4% 26.2% 21.1% 22.9% 40.4% 42.4% 48.9%
Conservative, Scheer 25.3% 29.5% 21.1% 25.6% 27.9% 23.2% 24.5% 29.4% 52% 33.6% 24.1% 11.8% 17.7%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 5.3% 6% 4.5% 2.7% 4.4% 6.8% 7.8% - - - - 22.5% -
NDP, Singh 13.1% 11.5% 14.8% 23.2% 11.4% 9.6% 6.1% 20.8% 12.1% 11.9% 13.5% 8.6% 14.5%
Green, Roberts 4% 3.6% 4.4% 5.3% 4.7% 2.6% 3.2% 7.5% 2.1% 3% 4% 3.1% 3.9%
People's Party, Bernier 1.9% 2.4% 1.4% 1% 3.3% 2.2% 0.7% 2.2% 2.7% 3.8% 1.8% 1% 1.3%
Another Party 1.2% 1.9% 0.5% 1.8% 1.2% 1.2% 0.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1% 1% 1% 1.3%
Undecided 13.1% 12.3% 13.8% 14.3% 12.6% 11.6% 14% 12% 8.7% 23.6% 15.1% 9.6% 12.6%
Unweighted Frequency 1594 819 775 244 419 446 485 338 301 92 477 300 86
Weighted Frequency 1594 789 805 433 399 439 313 217 180 104 611 372 109

(Leaning Voters With Undecided Totals)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 38.9% 35.2% 42.5% 28.8% 36.8% 45.5% 46.6% 28.5% 22.1% 27.6% 43.8% 44.6% 50.7%
Conservative, Scheer 27.2% 31.6% 23% 27.8% 29.4% 25.3% 26.4% 30.7% 53.6% 37.5% 26.7% 12.6% 20.1%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 5.3% 6% 4.5% 2.7% 4.4% 6.8% 7.8% - - - - 22.5% -
NDP, Singh 14.7% 12.6% 16.8% 25.9% 12.4% 10.8% 7.1% 22.7% 13.5% 14% 15.6% 9.3% 14.5%
Green, Roberts 4.9% 5% 4.8% 6.8% 5.3% 3.5% 3.8% 7.9% 2.1% 4.6% 5.7% 3.8% 3.9%
People's Party, Bernier 2% 2.4% 1.6% 1% 3.3% 2.5% 1% 2.2% 2.7% 3.8% 2% 1.2% 1.3%
Another Party 1.3% 2% 0.5% 1.8% 1.2% 1.4% 0.5% 2.1% 1.3% 1.9% 1% 1% 1.3%
Undecided 5.7% 5.2% 6.3% 5.2% 7% 4.2% 6.9% 5.9% 4.7% 10.6% 5.2% 4.9% 8.3%
Unweighted Frequency 1594 819 775 244 419 446 485 338 301 92 477 300 86
Weighted Frequency 1594 789 805 433 399 439 313 217 180 104 611 372 109

(Decided And Leaning Voters)

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Liberal, Trudeau 41.3% 37.1% 45.3% 30.3% 39.6% 47.4% 50.1% 30.4% 23.2% 31% 46.2% 46.9% 55.2%
Conservative, Scheer 28.9% 33.4% 24.6% 29.4% 31.6% 26.4% 28.4% 32.6% 56.3% 41.8% 28.1% 13.3% 22%
Bloc Québécois, Blanchet 5.5% 6.3% 4.7% 2.8% 4.7% 7.1% 8.3% - - - - 23.6% -
NDP, Singh 15.6% 13.3% 17.9% 27.4% 13.4% 11.4% 7.6% 24.2% 14.2% 15.6% 16.4% 9.8% 15.7%
Green, Roberts 5.2% 5.3% 5.2% 7.1% 5.7% 3.7% 4.1% 8.4% 2.2% 5.2% 6% 3.9% 4.2%
People's Party, Bernier 2.1% 2.5% 1.8% 1.1% 3.6% 2.6% 1.1% 2.3% 2.8% 4.3% 2.1% 1.3% 1.4%
Another Party 1.5% 2.1% 0.6% 1.9% 1.4% 1.4% 0.5% 2.2% 1.4% 2.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.4%
Unweighted Frequency 1502 779 723 231 390 427 454 320 286 82 453 283 78
Weighted Frequency 1502 744 758 418 376 414 295 205 170 96 576 351 103
 Have you installed the COVID-19 alert app?
18- 35- 50-
Total Male Female 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
34 49 64
Installed The App 20.8% 21% 20.6% 26.2% 22.4% 17.8% 15.2% 12% 8.3% 11.6% 34.1% 12.6% 21%
Haven’t Installed But Intend To 49.1% 47.8% 50.3% 43.8% 47.6% 55.1% 49.9% 47.4% 50.6% 62.9% 38% 65.1% 43.9%
Still Thinking About Installing 10.3% 10% 10.6% 10% 8.2% 11.5% 11.7% 15.7% 13% 12.9% 9.5% 6.4% 10.2%
Haven’t Installed And Don’t Intend
19.8% 21.2% 18.5% 20% 21.7% 15.6% 23.1% 25% 28.1% 12.6% 18.4% 15.9% 24.8%
To
Unweighted Frequency 1594 819 775 244 419 446 485 338 301 92 477 300 86
Weighted Frequency 1594 789 805 433 399 439 313 217 180 104 611 372 109

Do you have any privacy concerns about the COVID-19 app?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
No Concerns 45.8% 45.8% 45.9% 49.8% 42% 44.5% 47% 39.5% 32% 41.8% 46.9% 53% 54.4%
Few Concerns 19.9% 19.3% 20.5% 19% 19.4% 22.2% 18.8% 19.4% 19.7% 20.7% 22.4% 16.2% 19.8%
Some Concerns 9.4% 9.6% 9.1% 8.2% 10.1% 9.4% 10.1% 9.5% 9.1% 14.4% 8.5% 10.8% 5%
Many Concerns 15.2% 16.9% 13.5% 16.5% 18.3% 15.7% 8.6% 17.6% 28.8% 13.7% 14.4% 9.5% 13.5%
Not sure 9.7% 8.4% 10.9% 6.5% 10.2% 8.3% 15.5% 14.1% 10.5% 9.4% 7.8% 10.5% 7.4%
Unweighted Frequency 1594 819 775 244 419 446 485 338 301 92 477 300 86
Weighted Frequency 1594 789 805 433 399 439 313 217 180 104 611 372 109

What are your thoughts about a potential second wave of COVID-19?

18- 35- 50-
Total Male Female 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
34 49 64
Less Severe 31.6% 34.3% 29% 31.2% 27.9% 34.3% 33.3% 20% 23.2% 15.2% 35.9% 40.3% 30.6%
As Severe 31.4% 29.3% 33.4% 28.7% 32.8% 28.7% 37.1% 36.3% 26.7% 33.1% 33.9% 27.9% 25.2%
More Severe 24.3% 22.6% 26.1% 25.4% 25% 26.2% 19.4% 32.3% 30.5% 39.9% 19.5% 17.8% 32.8%
There Will Not Be A Second
12.7% 13.9% 11.5% 14.7% 14.3% 10.9% 10.2% 11.4% 19.7% 11.8% 10.7% 14% 11.3%
Wave
Unweighted Frequency 1594 819 775 244 419 446 485 338 301 92 477 300 86
Weighted Frequency 1594 789 805 433 399 439 313 217 180 104 611 372 109

Are you wearing a mask while conducting your daily business?

Total Male Female 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ BC Alberta Prairies Ontario Quebec Atlantic
Yes 72.9% 67.2% 78.6% 71.3% 69.4% 73.9% 78.4% 62% 62.4% 49.6% 87% 71.2% 61.2%
No 22.2% 27.3% 17.2% 22.1% 25.7% 21.8% 18.4% 27.7% 29.6% 40.5% 9.8% 26.5% 36.4%
Won't say 4.9% 5.6% 4.2% 6.5% 5% 4.3% 3.2% 10.3% 8% 9.9% 3.2% 2.3% 2.4%
Unweighted Frequency 1594 819 775 244 419 446 485 338 301 92 477 300 86
Weighted Frequency 1594 789 805 433 399 439 313 217 180 104 611 372 109
Questionnaire
If the federal election were held today, You have not installed the app and have no
which party would you vote for? intention to do so
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau
Conservative Party of Canada led by Andrew Do you have any privacy concerns about
Scheer the COVID-19 app?
Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois No privacy concerns
Blanchet (Quebec only) Few privacy concerns
New Democratic Party of Canada led by Some privacy concerns
Jagmeet Singh Many privacy concerns
Green Party of Canada led by Jo-Ann Not Sure
Roberts
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime What are your thoughts about a potential
Bernier second wave of COVID-19?
Another Party The second wave will be less severe than the
Undecided first wave
The second wave will be as severe as the first
And which party are you leaning towards? wave
(only asked of those who said they were The second wave will be more severe than
undecided) the first wave
Liberal Party of Canada led by Justin Trudeau there will not be a second wave
Conservative Party of Canada led by Andrew
Scheer Are you wearing a mask while conducting
Bloc Quebecois led by Yves-Francois your daily business?
Blanchet (Quebec only) Yes
New Democratic Party of Canada led by No
Jagmeet Singh Won’t Say
Green Party of Canada led by Jo-Ann
Roberts What is your gender?
People’s Party of Canada led by Maxime Male
Bernier Female
Another Party
Undecided What is your age group?
18 to 34 years of age
We would now like to ask you some 35 to 49 years of age
questions about the COVID-19 art app. 50 to 64 years of age
65 years of age or older
Q3: Have you installed the COVID-19 alert
app that was recently released by Health
Canada?
You have installed the app
You have not yet installed the app, but you
intend to do so soon
You are still thinking about installing the app
Methodology
The analysis in this report is based on results of a survey conducted on August 11th and 12th,
2020, among a sample of 1594 adults, 18 years of age or older, living in Canada. The survey was
conducted using Interactive Voice Recording. Respondents were interviewed on both landlines
and cellular phones. The survey is intended to represent the voting population of Canada.

The survey was conducted by Mainstreet Research and was sponsored by iPolitics.

The sampling frame was derived from both a national telephone directory compiled by Mainstreet
Research from various commercially available sources and random digit dialing. The survey
that dialed from the directory was conducted as a stratified dial of the ten Canadian provinces.
In the case of random digit dials, respondents were asked the additional question of what region
of the country they resided in. Respondents were dialed at random.

At least two attempts were made to complete an interview at every sampled telephone number.
The calls were staggered over different times of day and two days to maximize the chances of
making contact with a potential respondent. Interviewing was also spread as evenly as possible
across the field period.

The questionnaire used in this survey is available in this report and online at www.
mainstreetresearch.ca. If a question is asked of a subset of the sample a descriptive note is
added in parenthesis preceding the question.

The sample was weighted by population parameters from the Canada 2016 Census for adults
18 years of age or older in Canada. The population parameters used for weighting are age,
gender, and region.

The margin of error for this poll is +/- 2.5% at the 95% confidence level.

Totals may not add up 100% due to rounding.

In addition to sampling error, one should bear in mind that the wording of questions and practical
difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of opinion polls.
Moreover, all sample surveys and polls may be subject to other sources of error, including, but
not limited to coverage error, and measurement error.