12 Paper No.
98-1216
Probabilistic Method of Asphalt Binder
Selection Based on Pavement Temperature
ERLAND O. LUKANEN, CHUNHUA HAN, AND EUGENE L. SKOK, JR.
The Strategic Highway Research Program, conducted in the United States
and Canada from 1987 to 1992, included a significant asphaltic concrete
study. The study included a new grading method for asphalt binders, per-
formance grading, resulting in what is termed PG asphalt. The grade selec-
tion process is based on air temperature distribution. Since 1994, the
Long-Term Pavement Performance program has established a seasonal
monitoring program that consists of a number of sites with air and pave-
ment temperature sensors and a data logger that records the air and pave-
ment temperatures hourly. These data are now available for prediction of
the extreme temperatures that are needed for the selection of the appro-
priate PG asphalt binder. On the basis of the review of the recent pave-
ment temperature studies and statistical analysis of the pavement
temperature data available, an empirical prediction model has been devel-
oped from the original data set and validated from the expanded data set.
The model is compared with existing prediction relationships including
the heat flow model. Pavement prediction data and climatic data on high
and low temperature from weather stations are used to calculate the prob-
ability that a specific asphalt temperature will be exceeded. Variations
both in prediction and in annual maximum or minimum air temperature
are assumed to be independent and considered in the calculation. The reli-
ability contours for a given PG grade are presented as a convenient tool to
the asphalt binder selection.
The Strategic Highway Research Program (SHRP) included a sig-
nificant asphaltic concrete study (1). That study resulted in a new
approach to asphalt mix design called Superpave. This included a
new grading method for asphalt binders (2). The asphalt binders,
under Superpave, are graded by a method that is called performance
grading (PG), resulting in what is termed PG asphalt. PG is a two-
number system intended to ensure that the proper binder is used to
resist rutting under hot temperatures and to resist thermal cracking
at cold temperatures. Local climatic data are used to determine the
expected temperatures of the asphalt for the hottest and coldest
times of the year. A PG asphalt binder is selected to span these two
values. The work performed to date on grade selection is based on
air temperature distribution. The air temperatures, in turn, are used
to estimate the high temperature at 20 mm below the pavement sur-
face and the low surface temperature. Because limited data were
available regarding the pavement temperatures, the relationship
between air and pavement temperatures was developed from heat
flow models.
In the past 3 years, the Long-Term Pavement Performance
(LTPP) program, developed under SHRP and continued by the
Federal Highway Administration (FHWA), has established a sea-
E. O. Lukanen and C. Han, Braun Intertec Corporation, 6875 Washington
Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55439. E. L. Skok, Minnesota Asphalt
Pavement Association, 900 Long Lake Road, Suite 202, New Brighton,
MN 55112.
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 1609
sonal monitoring program (SMP), consisting of a number of sites
around the United States and Canada, to evaluate the seasonal
response of pavements. These sites include air and pavement tem-
perature sensors and a data logger that records the air and pavement
temperatures hourly. These data now are available and can be used
to refine the heat flow models to predict more accurately the
extreme temperatures that are needed for Superpave and the selec-
tion of the appropriate PG asphalt, or they can be used to develop
simple regression equations that relate the 7-day average high
(maximum) air temperature to the 7-day average high (maximum)
pavement temperature and relate the minimum air temperatures to
the minimum pavement temperatures.
Many state departments of transportation are in the process of imple-
menting the Superpave mix design. Cost is one of the concerns regard-
ing the implementation. Both asphaltic cement and the aggregate costs
may be higher for Superpave than for the normal agency mix designs
because the specifications may limit the sources or increase process-
ing costs. In the case of the binder, the PG requirements may either
require that the asphalt be modified or limit the crude oil sources. In
either case, the asphalt cost may increase. Preliminary estimates in
Minnesota indicate that the increase may be as much as 30 percent
(personal communication). The Minnesota Asphalt Pavement Associ-
ation (MAPA) has noted that previously there were 13 crude sources
from which asphalt could be made; however, only 3 sources can meet
the specifications without modifiers.
Implementation of Superpave has raised questions regarding
pavement temperatures among agencies, including Minnesota’s.
Minnesota adapted the PG method of grading asphalt binders
effective January 1, 1997. The new criteria required PG 52-34
north and east of I-94 and PG 58-28 south and west of I-94, includ-
ing I-94. Generally it was thought that neither of these two grades
would require the use of modifiers. However, as described, after
the PG criteria were adapted, concerns developed regarding the
availability of asphalt that meets the specifications; not all asphalt
previously supplied would meet the new PG criteria, limiting the
supply.
Given the adaptation of the new grading procedure, other questions
arose, including:
• What would be the appropriate PG requirement for underlying
asphalt layers, including binder and base courses?
• What is the appropriate binder to use for hot mix asphalt
recycling?
Neither of these issues has been actively investigated during the
development of the Superpave system of asphalt mix design. The
present study was intended to answer these questions.
Lukanen et al.
SUPERPAVE PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE
OR HEAT FLOW MODEL
A mix design computer program, Superpave Software, was developed
for Superpave. Superpave Software uses heat flow models to calcu-
late the pavement temperatures from a weather database that has been
developed for Superpave. The software is being evaluated and is not
available for general release; some flaws have been identified in the
temperature routines in the program.
The selection of PG asphalt without the benefit of Superpave
Software requires a transfer model to calculate typical pavement
temperatures from the air temperature data. A SHRP report pre-
sents regression equations to predict the pavement temperatures
from air temperatures, based on results obtained from the heat flow
model (2).
The equations include a model to predict the maximum surface
temperature from the air temperature and the latitude as follows:
Ts (max) = Ta (max) − 0.00618Φ 2 + 0.2289Φ + 24.4 (1)
where
Ts(max) = maximum surface temperature (°C),
Ta(max) = maximum air temperature (°C), and
Φ = latitude (degrees).
A second equation was developed for the maximum temperature
for calculating the temperature at depth, as follows:
Td (max) = [Ts (max) + 17.8][1 − 2.48 E10 −3 d
+ 1.1E10 −5 d 2 − 2.4 E10 −8 d 3 ] − 17.8 (2)
where
Td(max) = maximum temperature at depth (°C),
Ts(max) = maximum surface temperature (°C), and
d = depth from surface (mm).
Because the high temperature of the PG asphalt is based on the
temperature at a 20-mm depth, the equation simplifies to
T20(max) = 0.955Ts (max) − 0.8 (3)
The minimum surface temperature was defined as the minimum
air temperature.
Ts (min) = Ta (min) (4)
An additional equation was offered to calculate the minimum
temperature at depth as follows:
Td (min) = Ts (min) + 5.1E10 −2 d − 6.3E10 −5 d 2 (5)
The idea of determining the appropriate temperature for underly-
ing asphalt layers has been presented (2) but has not received much
attention.
NEW PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE STUDIES
Three key factors contributed to the new interest in pavement
temperatures:
Paper No. 98-1216 13
• The announcement by many agencies that they were planning
to implement Superpave over the next few years, including the
adoption of the PG asphalt binders.
• A general concern in the frost-belt area that the minimum air
temperature was not a realistic expression of the minimum pavement
temperature.
• Economics. The adaptation of the PG selection criteria would
require modified asphalt or would restrict the overall supply of un-
modified asphalt that could meet the grading criteria. The need for
modifiers can significantly increase the cost of the binder and a
restricted supply also would result in some increase, although not
as much as expected for a modified asphalt.
Several years had passed since the SMP data became available
and there was no indication that the data were being used to evalu-
ate the pavement temperature models for the selection of PG asphalt.
MAPA decided to proceed with such a study when indications
developed that the new Minnesota PG criteria may result in an
increase in asphalt prices (3).
Soon after this project began, the authors discovered two studies
that were underway to address these issues, one by Warren D.
Robertson in Canada (4) and one by Alaeddin Mohseni in Maryland
(5). Robertson used data from Canadian sites at which temperature
instrumentation was installed. In Robertson’s study, the LTPP SMP
sites were not selected because he was not aware that suitable data
were being collected. Mohseni was performing a study for FHWA
using the SMP data. His study was for an expert task group that had
been formed by the FHWA to provide input into the binder selec-
tion process. Mohseni had the same basic database that the authors
had from the first round seasonal testing. Because Mohseni’s efforts
were independent from those of the authors, the authors developed
an analysis data set different from Mohseni’s. In the authors’ study,
only single maximum and minimum values were selected for each
season available, whereas Mohseni selected several for each season
to increase the size of the data.
The benefit of three independent temperature studies is that
these studies serve as checks on each other. All three studies had
similar results and all three represented significant changes from
the Superpave temperature selection criteria.
PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE DATA
Since the completion of the temperature selection work for Super-
pave, the LTPP program developed the SMP. The SMP was estab-
lished to monitor environmental effects on about 48 asphalt
sections located throughout the United States and Canada. The geo-
graphical distribution of the SMP sites, shown in Figure 1, results
in a good representation of the range of environmental conditions
in the United States and Canada. Each SMP site is instrumented to
record, among other things, weather data and pavement and soil
temperature data. The temperature data is read every minute and
the average hourly temperature is recorded on a data logger. The
temperature data that are of interest are the air temperature and the
temperatures within the asphalt. A temperature probe containing
three temperature sensors is installed in the asphalt so that the top
sensor is about 25 mm below the surface and the bottom sensor is
25 mm above the bottom of the asphalt. A sensor at the center of
the probe records the mid-depth asphalt temperature. The probe is
a thin cylindrical rod that is placed in a saw cut at the instrumenta-
tion location. The probe is 305 mm long to meet the placement
14 Paper No. 98-1216
FIGURE 1 Location of LTPP SMP sites included in original
analyzed data.
criteria for the thickest asphalt in the study. For thin pavements, the
probe is placed at an angle so that the ends are 25 mm from the
asphalt surface and bottom.
Two data sets were developed from the SMP data. The data used
in the study were taken from the original field data files created by the
monthly downloads from the data loggers at each of the SMP sites
(personal communication). QuickBASIC filter programs were writ-
ten to scan the data and extract the 7-day average high (maximum)
air temperature and the corresponding pavement temperatures for
each of the thermistors in the asphalt. A scan also was made to extract
the minimum air temperature at the site and the corresponding mini-
mum pavement temperatures for each of the thermistors. The pave-
ment temperature response typically lagged behind the air temperature
by several hours.
TEMPERATURE PREDICTION OF ASPHALT
LAYER WITH SMP DATA
The two data sets developed consist of the maximum or minimum air
temperature, corresponding pavement temperatures and thermistor
depths, and latitude. Initial correlation matrices developed from the
data sets as shown in Tables 1 and 2 showed very high correlation
between the latitude and the maximum and minimum air and pave-
TABLE 1 Correlation Matrix for Maximum Air Temperature Data Set
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 1609
ment temperatures, as expected. The 25 sites and one summer season
and two winter seasons did not provide enough data to significantly
separate the role of air temperature and latitude in the prediction of
pavement temperatures. It is expected that as the data set grows, there
will be sufficient data to develop better models. Sixteen additional
SMP sites were monitored the second summer and following winter,
and three more are yet to be instrumented. The final number of asphalt
SMP sites will be 44. Of the 16 additional sites, 15 have been used to
validate the models developed based on the original 25 sites. If other
sites, such as Mn/ROAD and the sites used by Robertson, are added,
the data set should be fully adequate for the development of predic-
tion models. This does not mean that the models developed to date are
not adequate; in fact, they represent a significant improvement over
the models used previously. Nevertheless, further improvement is
possible. The model sets developed by Han, Mohseni, and Robertson
are described below.
Han’s Models
The data used by Mohseni were analyzed by Chunhua Han to develop
and evaluate models that relate the 7-day average high (maximum)
air temperatures to the 7-day average high (maximum) temperature
within the asphalt concrete and the coldest (minimum) air tempera-
ture to the temperature within the asphalt concrete pavement (3).
These models were slightly different from those developed by
Mohseni but they provided similar results. The temperatures pre-
dicted by Mohseni and Han result in essentially the same PG. Han’s
equations are as follows:
Td (max) = 0.52 + 6.225Φ − 0.15Φ 2 + 0.0011Φ 3
+ 0.28Ta (max) − 8.37 LN ( d + 40) (6)
The R-squared for this equation is 0.875 on 70 data points and
the standard error of the estimate is 2.2°C. It is interesting to note
that the temperature is so strongly correlated to latitude and depth
that the air temperature is the least significant of the independent
variables.
Td (min) = − 0.14 − 1.7Φ + 0.06Φ 2 − 0.0007Φ 3
+ 0.69 * Ta (min) + 4.12 LN ( d + 100) (7)
The R-squared for this above equation is 0.948 on 71 data points
and the standard error of the estimate is 2.6°C. For the minimum
pavement temperature, the air is the most significant independent
variable.
Lukanen et al. Paper No. 98-1216 15

TABLE 2 Correlation Matrix for Minimum Air Temperature Data Set

Mohseni’s Models
Part of the SHRP asphalt study was the collection of historic weather
data from all the reporting stations in the United States and Canada.
These data were distributed in 1994 with the SHRP Superpave
Binder Selection Program, Version 1.0 (6). Mohseni also has devel-
oped a database of the SMP temperature data and, from that data,
has developed models to predict the high and low temperatures as
a function of air temperature, depth, and latitude. Mohseni pre-
sented his findings at the January 1997 Data Analysis Working
Group meeting in Washington, D.C. The equations presented by
Mohseni are as follows:
Robertson’s equation has a very good fit with a standard error
of the estimate of 1.5°C. No other independent variables were
included. Latitude was not a factor because the sites generally were
above 45 degrees latitude and the results are less sensitive at those
latitudes. His equation corresponds to about 47 degrees latitude on
Han’s equation, as shown in Figure 2, which perhaps is somewhat
south of the average latitude of his sites. Note that the positions of
the lines are most appropriate in the −40°C to −50°C range because
the higher minimum temperatures are not common between 45 and
50 degrees latitude in North America. Northern latitudes in Europe,
particularly those affected by the Gulf Stream, may have a different
temperature response.

Td (max) = 54.32 + 0.77585Ta (max) − 0.002468Φ 2

− 15.137 Log( d + 25) (8)
The R-squared for this equation is 0.76 on 309 data points and the
standard error of the estimate is 3.0°C.
Td (min) = −1.56 + 0.71819Ta (min) − 0.003966Φ 2
+ 6.264 Log( d + 25) (9)
The R-squared for this equation is 0.96 on 411 data points and the
standard error of the estimate is 2.1°C.
VALIDATION AND COMPARISON
OF PREDICTION MODELS
As discussed, 15 additional SMP sites have become available and
have been used to validate the models developed based on the orig-
inal data sets. The new data set is from a monitoring period of two
summers and one winter. The annual maximum of 7-day daily max-
imum averages and the annual minimum of daily minimums for air

Robertson’s Models

Robertson undertook a study to investigate the relationship between

the minimum air temperatures and the minimum pavement surface
temperatures. The Canadian Strategic Research Program (C-SHRP)
considered the low air temperature originally proposed by SHRP to
be much too severe. Earlier research by C-SHRP prompted FHWA
to modify the low temperature requirements in an interim guideline
for determining the low temperature requirements.
Robertson reviewed the LTPP SMP data for the study but found
only daily high and low temperatures for the air and pavement,
which was inadequate for his work. As described earlier, hourly data
exist but probably were not made available to Robertson at the time
of the request. Data from eight non-LTPP sites within Canada were
available that had hourly air and pavement temperatures. Robertson
collected that data and developed a simple relationship between
the minimum air temperature and minimum surface temperature as
follows:

TS = 0.749TA (10)

where TS is the minimum pavement surface temperature (°C) and TA

is the minimum air temperature (°C). FIGURE 2 Comparison of Han and Robertson data.
16 Paper No. 98-1216
and pavement were determined. For each site only one annual max-
imum and minimum are selected to expand the original data set. The
resulting new equations follow.
Td (max) = 0.47 + 5.717Φ − 0.1276Φ 2 + 0.0008121Φ 3
+ 0.3078Ta (max) − 8.602 LN ( d + 40) (11)
The R-squared for this equation is 0.81 on 113 data points and the
standard error of the estimate is 2.7°C. It is interesting to note that the
temperature still is correlated strongly to latitude and depth and that
the air temperature is the least significant of the independent variables.
Td (min) = − 0.15 − 1.9Φ + 0.06Φ 2 − 0.0007Φ 3
+ 0.59 p Ta (min) + 5.2 LN ( d + 100) (12)
The R-squared for this equation is 0.946 on 113 data points and the
standard error of the estimate is 2.4°C. For the minimum pavement
temperature, the air is the most significant independent variable.
The model developed based on the expanded data set is slightly
different from that of the original data set in functional form
and fitting statistics. The model is compared with Mohseni’s and
SHRP’s in the prediction of the maximum pavement temperature
because the predictions from all the models are similar. In Figures
3 and 4, the maximum pavement temperatures at the depth of 25 mm
from three models are plotted against the maximum air temperature
for 35- and 40-degree latitude, respectively. Han’s shows the flat-
test slope and SHRP’s, the steepest. Because air temperature and
latitude are so strongly related in the data used in Han’s and Mohseni’s
models, only temperatures that are typical of the latitude should
be used.
In Figure 5, the pavement temperature profiles from three models
are presented with a given latitude of 40 degrees and maximum air
temperature of 35°C. Again, Han’s predicts the coldest profile and
Mohseni’s and SHRP’s are warmer. The variation of the maximum
pavement temperature at the depth of 25 mm with the latitude (and
FIGURE 3 Maximum pavement temperature at 25-mm depth
as function of maximum air temperature for 35-degree latitude.
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 1609
FIGURE 4 Maximum pavement temperature at 25-mm depth
as function of maximum air temperature for 40-degree latitude.
air temperature typical of the latitude) is presented in Figure 6, as
predicted by three models. Han’s is lower than the other two at the
lower latitudes.
SELECTION OF PAVEMENT TEMPERATURE
ON BASIS OF LTPP SMP
The development of the models on the basis of the SMP provides a
means of estimating pavement temperatures based on temperature
measurements of in-service pavements. The pavement temperatures
then can be used to select the appropriate PG asphalt. The models
also can provide a means of selecting a PG asphalt for non-wear
courses including the binder and the base. The majority of the ton-
nage on high-volume projects is in the asphalt base. The selection
of a performance graded asphalt, based on current criteria that do
not consider temperatures at depth, may result in the use of asphalt
that is more costly than needed for binder and base layers.
APPLICATION OF MODELS TO MINNESOTA
WEATHER STATION DATA
The data from the Minnesota weather stations were loaded into a
spreadsheet and an estimate of the PG required, based on the predicted
maximum and minimum temperatures, was calculated. The maxi-
mum pavement temperature at a 20-mm depth and the minimum
pavement surface temperatures are predicted by the various models
(3). Mohseni’s models currently are the preferred models because
they have been presented to the FHWA’s expert task group on PG
binders.
Temperatures at depth also were calculated on the basis of the
models. Applying Mohseni’s relationships indicates that there is a
substantial temperature change with depth. For each of the weather
stations in Minnesota, the temperatures were calculated for 50-mm,
 FIGURE 5 Profile of maximum pavement temperatures.

FIGURE 6 Maximum pavement temperature at 25-mm depth as function of

latitude.
18 Paper No. 98-1216
100-mm, and 150-mm depths on the basis of the average air tem-
perature and the 98th percentile. Table 3 shows the statewide aver-
age of the in-depth temperatures. Han’s model, as discussed above,
provided similar results.
The 50-mm depth is 13 mm below the surface of a typical binder
course in Minnesota (37-mm wear course). As shown in Table 3,
depth has a greater impact on the maximum pavement temperature
than on the minimum pavement temperature. These data indicate
that the potential for rutting diminishes with depth, even without
accounting for the lower stress at depth.
EVALUATING RELIABILITY OF PG BINDERS
The established grading for PG binders steps at 6-degree increments
for the maximum and minimum temperatures. Climatic conditions
may result in large areas that are marginal for a particular grading
but do not quite meet the selection criteria at 98 percent reliability.
To develop a better understanding of how the climatic variations
within Minnesota affect reliability, calculations were made to deter-
mine the reliability of a specific maximum or minimum temperature
at all of the weather stations.
To handle the reliability issue, Robertson adds the 0.749nσ and
nSEE to the equation to determine the surface temperature at the
chosen reliability and its corresponding n. For instance, for 98 per-
cent, the n is equal to 2.06. If the standard deviation of the minimum
air temperature is 3 degrees, then the 98th percentile would be
2.06(0.749 × 3 + 1.5) = 7.7 degrees colder than the 50th percentile
temperature. A more appropriate approach, as discussed below, to
calculate the reliability is to use the following calculation process:
2.06[(0.749 × 3)2 + 1.52]1/2 = 5.6 degrees. A 2-degree difference
would make a difference on about a third (2°/6°) of the projects.
Robertson’s equation that includes reliability actually is equivalent
to an n of 2.86 or a reliability of 99.8 percent.
The calculation of the reliability of a certain PG asphalt binder
first assumes that the maximum and minimum air temperatures are
normally distributed and that the residuals of the prediction model
also are distributed normally. It also is assumed that the variation
in annual maxima is independent of the variation in predication. The
combined standard deviation of the pavement temperatures calcu-
lated with one of the models discussed is calculated by the following
equation:
σ pvm't = σ air
2
+ σ 2reg (13)
where
σpvm’t = standard deviation of pavement temperature,
σair = standard deviation of air temperature, and
σreg = standard error of estimate of model.
TABLE 3 Average Pavement Temperatures, Based on Mohseni’s Models
TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 1609
An average maximum air temperature of 37°C with a standard devi-
ation of 3°C results in the air and pavement temperature distributions
and the reliability of a PG 58 is shown in Figure 7.
This reliability analysis resulted in four tables (surface and depths
of 50 mm, 100 mm, and 150 mm) of reliability for maximum tem-
perature grades of 46°C, 52°C, 58°C, and 64°C and for the mini-
mum temperature grades of −22°C, −28°C, −34°C, and −40°C. To
illustrate the reliability distributions throughout the state, contour
maps were generated from the data in some of these tables. Contour
maps were generated for the wear course requirements and for sev-
eral PG binders at various depths. Two of the contour maps are pre-
sented in Figures 8 and 9 and clearly show the effect of pavement
depth on reliability. Different PG grades may be selected for asphalt
in different depths to meet the required reliability level.
CONCLUSIONS
An empirical model is a statistical solution that provides practi-
cal predictions of pavement temperature. The empirical model
developed focuses on three main factors—extreme air temperatures,
temperature profiles in the pavement, and latitude—and is practically
simple in use. The wide data range from the LTPP SMP sites used
for model development makes the model applicable in much of North
America.
The distribution of the annual maximum and minimum temper-
atures over many years is independent of the errors associated with
predicting the maximum and minimum pavement temperatures.
The combined standard deviation of the maximum or minimum
pavement temperature is the square root of the sum of squares of
maximum or minimum air temperature standard deviation and the
standard error of the estimate of the model.
The regional reliability contour for a given PG grade selection is
a direct and convenient tool for asphalt binder selection. There is a
great potential for the application of reliability contours based on the
probabilistic method at the state and regional levels.
The pavement temperatures within the base and binder layers do
not require the same PG grade of asphalt. It may be possible to select
lower-cost asphalt binders for binder and base layers.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
The authors gratefully acknowledge financial support from the Min-
nesota Asphalt Pavement Association. The authors also thank David
S. Holt for providing valuable guidance and comments. Permission
from the Minnesota Asphalt Pavement Association to allow the
authors to publish the results is appreciated.
FIGURE 7 Distribution of maximum air and pavement temperatures and
probability temperature will not exceed 58°C.

FIGURE 8 PG 52 reliability contours in Minnesota.

20 Paper No. 98-1216 TRANSPORTATION RESEARCH RECORD 1609

FIGURE 9 PG 52 reliability contours at 50-mm depth in Minnesota.

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Research Council, Washington, D.C., 1986.
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2. Superior Performing Asphalt Pavements (Superpave): The Product of
Working Group Meeting, Washington, D.C., January 1997.
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6. Mohseni, A. SHRP Superpave Binder Selection Program, Version 1.0.
way Research Program, National Research Council, Washington,
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D.C., 1994.
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