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JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP.

PHP 150.00
Industry: Travel & Leisure Analysis of 20-Jun-2020
Sector: Restaurants & Bars Closing price of 19-Jun-2020

An increasingly favourable environment allows JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. to

improve to medium

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Travel & Leisure - Restaurants & Bars

JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP.

PHY4466S1007 | JFC | Philippines Analysis of 20-Jun-2020 Closing Price of 19-Jun-2020 PHP 150.00

JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. active in the sector Restaurants & Bars, Global Evaluation
belongs to the industry group Travel & Leisure.

Its market capitalization of USD 3.29 bn. ranks it among mid-cap stocks.

During the last 12 months this stock has reached a high of PHP 288.00
and a low of PHP 95.00; its current price of PHP 150.00 places it 47.9%
under its 52 week high and 57.9% over its 52 week low.

Performance since June 18, 2019: JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP.: -46.8%,

Travel & Leisure: -8.7%, PSE: -20.3%
Negative Slightly Neutral Slightly Positive
negative positive

Company Name Price Perf Mkt Cap Stars Sensitivity LT LT Div 4wk Rel Global
YtD in $bn P/E Growth Perf Evaluation

JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. 150.00 -30.6% 3.29 28.0 37.1% 0.7% -6.5%

Travel & Leisure (PA) 283.00 -14.7% 418.96 17.3 41.4% 1.6% 1.0%

PSE 6,315.00 -19.2% 158.69 13.3 11.7% 2.0% 13.7%

The four-week relative performance against the reference index PSE is -6.5%.
Comparison June 18, 2019 - June 19, 2020 The technical trend must be shaded by this underperformance, a sign that the
investors are more interested in other stocks.
20%
The four-week relative performance of its reference group Travel & Leisure is
positive.
0%
Dividend
-20%
The 12-month indicated dividend yield is 0.7%. This estimated dividend
represents 20.4% of the estimated earnings. Consequently, the dividend is easily
covered, and very likely to prove sustainable.
-40%

-60%
Summary of the Fundamental and Technical Analysis
1. The positive earnings revisions trend favors the stock, particularly in an
-80%
Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 environment which is being negatively revised.
JFC PSE TRL@PA
2. In terms of valuation, the stock has very good potential.
3. The technical trend is positive in a positive environment.
4. The stock showed a relative underperformance over four weeks in a
generally positive environment Travel & Leisure.
Fundamental and Technical Analysis
Price Level Analysis
In order to assess whether JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. is currently fairly priced,
Checklist
we can combine Peter Lynch's broadly accepted methodology, comparing the Global Evaluation Upgrade from slightly negative to neutral
projected earnings growth and dividends to the estimated PE ratio, with historic the 19-Jun-2020.
multiples. Based on this,
Interest Strong interest since 16-Jun-2020.
- JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. appears fundamentally very undervalued
compared to its theoretical fair price. Earnings Rev Trend Analysts positive since 16-Jun-2020
- its valuation is comparable to the Pacific Travel & Leisure aggregate.
The fundamental price potential for JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. looks good, and Valuation Rating Strongly undervalued
in line with the average of its industry group.
MT Tech Trend Trend positive since 09-Jun-2020
Earnings Revisions 4wk Rel Perf [!] Under pressure (vs. PSE)
JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. is moderately followed by financial analysts, as over
the last three months an average of 8 analysts provided earnings estimate Sensitivity Increase from moderate to high the 17-
forecasts up until the year 2022. Mar-2020.
Currently, these analysts are positively revising their earnings growth estimates
by 3.1% compared with seven weeks ago. This positive pressure on the growth
expectations has been apparent since June 16, 2020 when the stock closed at
the price of PHP 142.50 and confirms the positive technical trend.
The positioning of JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. vs. its reference sector Travel &
Leisure accentuates that the clearly positive trend of earnings revisions creates
a positive perception of the stock, because its environment is - on the contrary
- being negatively revised.

Technical Trend and relative Performance

The stock has been in a medium-term up trend, which started on June 9, 2020,
at a price of PHP 138.90. Its adjusted technical reverse point is PHP 129.04, or
14.0% under the current price.

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JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. - Sector and/or Group Comparison

Company Name Symbol Market Price Perf Mkt Cap Stars Sensitivity LT LT Div Global
YtD in $bn P/E Growth Evaluation

JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. JFC PH 150.00 -30.6% 3.29 28.1 37.1% 0.7%

BLOOMBERRY RESORTS CORP. BLOOM PH 7.66 -32.2% 1.68 12.2 49.8% 1.5%

MCDONALD S CORP. MCD US 186.56 -5.6% 138.72 24.7 20.9% 2.7%

STARBUCKS CORP. SBUX US 75.40 -14.2% 88.09 32.4 99.7% 2.1%

CHIPOTLE MEXN.GRILL INCO CMG US 1,010.83 20.8% 28.19 59.8 59.4% 0.0%

RSTR.BNS.INTL.INCO. QSR CA 73.39 -11.3% 28.02 22.0 17.4% 3.6%

YUM! BRANDS INCO. YUM US 88.26 -12.4% 26.57 22.0 16.7% 2.1%

COMPASS GROUP PLC. CPG GB 1,179.00 -37.6% 26.00 19.6 38.1% 1.4%

HAIDILAO INHL.LTD. 6862 HK 34.80 11.2% 23.80 31.6 50.6% 0.5%

YUM CHINA HOLDINGS INCO. YUMC US 51.31 6.9% 19.31 20.7 24.3% 0.9%

DOMINO'S PIZZA INCO. DPZ US 378.41 28.8% 14.80 26.9 19.1% 0.9%

Price & Sensitivity Evolution Sensitivity Profile

300 Bear Market Factor

250

Bad News Factor

200

150
1 month volatility
100

50
Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 12 months volatility

Share Price MT Technical Trend

Beta

Aug-19 Oct-19 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20

Low Moderate High

JFC PSE PSE (Average stocks)

Sensitivity Analysis
Beta, Correlation and Volatility
Beta is often used as a measure of sensitivity. Where a Beta is greater than 100,
the stock is more volatile and therefore more sensitive. A Beta of 1.32 indicates
that for 1% of index variation, JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. varies on average by
1.32%. But a Beta analysis coupled with the correlation gives a more relevant
assessment.
Conclusion
At the analysis date of June 19, 2020, the impression that the fundamental
and technical elements (valuation, earnings revisions, group benchmarking,
technical factors) give is positive.
Moreover, the combination of the different criteria of sensitivity appreciation
leads to a qualification of highly sensitive.

Correlation is the degree of similarity in which a stock fluctuates in relation to its By combining the positive fundamental and technical analysis, with the high
reference index. JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. has a correlation rate of 0.65. This sensitivity, the general evaluation seems medium.
indicates that 65% of the stock's movements are explained by index variations.
JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. is strongly correlated to PSE.

The volatility is also used as a sensitivity factor. The 1 month annualized volatility
of JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. is : 83.5%, that of the index PSE is 36.7% and that
Key Figures
of the world aggregate for the group Travel & Leisure is 46.1%. By comparison, Annualized estimate for current year to 2022
the average volatility of the stocks that make up the reference index is clearly
lower at 55.2%. Estimated PE (LT PE) for 2022 28.0

Sensitivity to Bear Markets Projected earnings growth (LT Growth) 37.1%

The Bear Market Factor measures the behavior of JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. in
Dividend (Ex Date: 22-Apr-2020) PHP 0.62
declining markets. JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. has the tendency to amplify drops
of the PSE index by 0.90%. The sensitivity to bear markets is above average. Number of analysts 8

Sensitivity to Bad News First analysis date 10-Jun-2002

The Bad News Factor measures negative swings of a stock in rising markets.
In the case of specific pressure, JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. is only moderately
sanctioned by the market in most of the times. When the stock goes down in a
rising environment, its average deviation is -3.79%.

Summary of the Sensitivity Analysis

By comparing with other stocks, the sensitivity of JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. is
considered high and this since March 17, 2020.

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JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. - 5 Year History

Price Changes June 19, 2015 - June 19, 2020 Expected Dividend Yield 2015 - 2020

375 3.00%

300 2.25%

1.50%
225

0.75%
150

0.00%
75 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20

Share Price Volatility channel JFC TRL@PA

The volatility channel shows a stock's average fluctuations over the last 5 years.
During this period, the high of PHP 325.00 was reached on January 2019 and
the low of PHP 95.00 in the month of March 2020.
The price development is generally in the volatility channel whose upper and
lower limits are presented here. Crossing one of these limits is an exceptional
situation accompanied by strong increases in short-term volatility.
The 12-month indicative dividend yield is 0.7%, less than the 1.6% average of
the industry group of JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP..
Reminder, this estimated dividend represents 20.4% of the estimated earnings.
It is thus largely covered, and its payment looks very sustainable.
The last estimation of the expected dividend is close to the historical average
of 1.0%.

Comparative LTPE June 19, 2015 - June 19, 2020 Performance vs Volatility
40 40% CMG
DPZ

35
20% YUMC
6862
30
0%

25 MCD SBUX

YUM QSR
-20%
20
BLOOM
CPG
15 -40%
JFC

10
Dec-15 Jun-16 Dec-16 Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 -60%
30.0% 37.5% 45.0% 52.5% 60.0%
JFC TRL@PA Median

While the projected forward PE of the stock JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. is 28.05,
the PE of the group Travel & Leisure is slightly lower (17.26); this indicates that
the stock is trading at a large premium when compared to its own group.
On the other hand, historically speaking, this stock is currently trading below its
median of 28.49.
The vertical axis measures the performance since June 18, 2019 of the 10 stocks
presented in the table on page 2, while the horizontal axis measures the 12 month
annualized volatility.
The bubbles are sized according to market capitalization, and their colors indicate
the overall rating (Global Valuation).

Comparison June 19, 2015 - June 19, 2020

-11% -2% 3% 30% 25% 36% 15% -13% -11% -26% 5% 16% -31% -19% -15%
75%

50%

25%

0%

-25%

-50%

-75%
Aug-15 Mar-16 Oct-16 May-17 Dec-17 Jul-18 Feb-19 Sep-19 Apr-20 Nov-20

JFC PSE TRL@PA

On a 5 year moving average, the performance of the stock JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. is -23.9%, vs. -16.9% for the PSE and 19.9% for the group Travel & Leisure
(TRL@PA).

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JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. - Financial Ratios 2019

Return on Equity Earnings Before Interest & Taxes

20% 15%

15%
10%

10%

5%
5%

0% 0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

JFC TRL@PA JFC TRL@PA

The return on equity, or ratio between profits and available equity, varies greatly
from industry to industry. The historical average return on equity of JOLLIBEE
FOODS CORP. is 16%. This is above the industry average of 11%, indicating an
efficient use of sharholder capital.
The last publicized return on equity of 12% is below the long term average of 16%.
The average historical operating margin (EBIT) of JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP.
has been at 7%. This is below the industry average. The competitors achieved
an on average EBIT margin of 12%.
The last reported 7% are near the historical average of 7%.

Equity on Assets Book Value / Price

50% 50%

40% 40%

30% 30%

20% 20%

10% 10%

0% 0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

JFC TRL@PA JFC TRL@PA

The graph shows the share of own funds in relation to the total assets. The higher
the value, the more conservative the company's finances. JOLLIBEE FOODS
CORP. has an average equity ratio of 43%, therefore comparable to the industry
average of 45%.
The current capital share of 29% is below the historical average of 43%.
The book value of the company is shown in relation to the stock's value. The
larger the ratio, the more asset value is obtained relative to the market price.
The average value of JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP. is with 16% below the industry
average of 42%.
With 22% the current value is above the historical average of 16%.

Balance Sheet 2017 2018 2019 Annual Statement 2017 2018 2019
31-Dec 31-Dec 31-Dec 31-Dec 31-Dec 31-Dec
Currency 'mio PHP PHP PHP Currency 'mio PHP PHP PHP
Cash & Short Term Invest 22,521 24,169 23,022 13% Total Revenue 131,577 161,199 179,626 100%
Receivables 4,017 4,863 5,906 3% 76%
Cost 103,350 128,522 137,381
Inventories 6,836 8,812 9,966 5% 16%
Gross Income 23,481 26,762 28,772
Total Current Assets 37,141 42,738 45,619 25%
General Cost & Administration 15,417 17,385 20,416 11%
Properties & Equipment 20,894 26,694 75,500 41% 8%
Amortization 4,745 5,915 13,473
Intangible 15,730 31,911 50,288 28% 4%
Operating Income 6,670 7,816 6,501
Total Assets 85,875 109,529 182,827 100%
Research & Development - - -
Net Income Before Extra Items 7,109 8,330 6,432 4%
Account Payable 10,878 13,095 14,576 8%
Net Income Before Taxes 9,028 11,466 12,647 7%
Short Term Debt 1,216 5,193 32,633 18%
Dividend 0 0 0 0%
Total Current Liabilities 26,695 34,185 67,680 37%
Net Income 7,109 8,330 6,432 4%

Long Term Debt 14,901 21,372 59,450 33%

Total Liabilities 85,875 109,529 182,827 100%

Key Figures Ratios

Book Value 37.53 44.55 47.51 Current Ratio 1.4 1.3 0.7
Shares Outstanding ('000) 1,086,621 1,085,534 1,107,177 Long Term Debt 17.4% 19.5% 32.5%
NB of Employees 12,309 14,644 16,690 Revenues on Assets 153.2% 147.2% 98.2%
Cash Flow on Revenues 9.0% 8.8% 11.1%

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Glossary - Equities

Global Evaluation ago, the analysts have now revised and raised their estimates by 2.8%. On the contrary, a
negative number means that the earnings would have been revised lower.
The rating results from several factors : fundamental and technical analysis, measure of
sensitivity and benchmark trend. G/PE Ratio
The synthesis is rated on a 5 level scale: In order to establish our Valuation Rating, we calculate the estimated growth of future earnings
- (LT Growth) plus dividend in %, divided by the estimated future PE ratio (Long Term P/E).
: Positive
LT PE
-
: Slightly positive This is the relationship between the price (P) and the estimated long-term future earnings.
- LT Growth
: Neutral
This is the estimated annual growth rate of future earnings, normally projected over the next
-
: Slightly negative two to three years.
- MT Tech Trend
: Negative
The synthesis for the Indices and Industries is rated on a 3 level scale: Positive, Neutral and The MT Tech Trend indicates the current trend, positive or negative , and the Tech
Negative. Reverse indicates up to which price this trend will remain valid.
When a price falls to 1.75% above or below the Tech Reverse, the MT Tech Trend is
Number of Stocks
considered neutral .
The number of stocks in the index that can be analyzed.
Once the price breaks out of the +1.75% neutral zone, the MT Tech Trend will change to
Mkt Cap in $bn positive.
This number represents the Market Capitalization in USD bn. It is calculated by multiplying a The symbol indicates that the previous MT Tech Trend was positive.
firm's share price by the number of outstanding shares. For reasons of comparison, all results
are in USD. The symbol indicates that the previous MT Tech Trend was negative.

Valuation Rating 4wk (Rel) Perf.

Our Valuation Rating indicates if a stock is "expensive" or "cheap" relative to its growth This figure measures the performance of a stock relative to its national or regional index
potential. This is used to determine whether or not the investor is paying a premium for (compared to four weeks ago). As for an Index, it measures the net performance over 4 weeks.
anticipated growth. Bad News Factor
To estimate a stock's value relative to its current price, our Valuation Rating combines: To determine the "Bad News Factor" we analyze a stock's declines in rising markets. In this
- stock price purely objective analysis, the actual reasons for a stock's behavior are not important. If a stock
- projected earnings price falls while its relative index goes up, it can be assumed that the stock's performance
- projected earnings growth has been affected by bad news - hence the name, "Bad News Factor".
- dividends Here a stock's movements are measured on a bi-weekly basis, during a sliding 52 week
We establish our rating by combining these elements. period. Every time a stock drops while its reference index rises, the difference is calculated
There are five ratings, ranging from strongly undervalued to strongly overvalued . in %, integrated into a yearly average and expressed in basis points.
The higher the "Bad News Factor," the more a stock has proven to be sensitive to bad news.
Stars
The lower the "Bad News Factor," the less the stock has proven to be sensitive to bad news.
theScreener.com's star rating system is designed to enable you to identify high-quality stocks
quickly and easily. Bear Market Factor
In this easy-to-use rating system, stars are earned for each element specified below: To determine the "Bear Market Factor" we analyze a stock's price movements in declining
- Earnings Rev Trend markets.
=
This is the analysis of the movements, in a bi-weekly intervals, during a sliding 52 week period.
- Valuation Rating , , = The higher the "Bear Market Factor," the greater the probability a stock would drop when its
- MT Tech Trend = relative index drops.
- 4 week Relative Performance > 1% = A "Bear Market Factor" that is strongly negative means the stock has been more resistant
Therefore, a stock can earn a maximum of four stars. to losses in declining markets.
The lowest rating a stock can have is no stars. Sensitivity
Once a stock has earned a star, it will keep it until: Stock price developments are generally volatile and contain high risks that can result in a total
- Earnings Rev Trend becomes negative loss. Based on a their historical behaviour, stocks are classified by sensitivity level. These
- Valuation Rating becomes negative , sensitivity levels have to be considered solely in relative historical comparison to other stocks.
Please note that even “Low Sensitivity” stocks are equities and therefore high risk investments
- MT Tech Trend becomes negative
that can lose up to all of their value, and that past performance is no indication of current or
- 4 week Relative Performance drops below -1% (<-1%) future performance.
Div "Sensitivity" is determined by measuring the "Bear Market Factor" and the "Bad News Factor"
against its benchmark.
This is the dividend in % for the next 12 months.
There are three grades of sensitivity levels:
Even if the same number is shown, the dividend value can appear in one of four colors,
- Low Sensitivity: The sensitivity indicators fall below the world reference average.
depending on the earnings coverage:
- Moderate Sensitivity: The sensitivity indicators are situated higher than the world reference
- 0%, no dividend
average, but lower than standard deviation.
- 4%, the dividends are covered (between 0% and 40% of earnings)
- High Sensitivity: The sensitivity indicators are at levels higher than standard deviation.
- 4%, the dividends represent between 40% and 70% of earnings
- 4%, the dividends are higher than 70% of earnings, which implies that the dividend Volatility 12 M
coverage is not guaranteed. Volatility measures the magnitude of upwards and downwards movements of a stock or index.
Earnings Rev. Trend The volatility 12 M shows the average volatility over the last 12 months.

The symbol shows that compared with their earnings revisions of seven weeks ago, the % of Stocks in Uptrend
This is the percentage of stocks in a given list that have a positive Medium Term Technical
analysts have now raised their estimates (7wk EPS Rev; > 1%); the symbol indicates that
Trend. If, for example, the aggregate of Technology / World, (which is made up of 458 stocks)
compared with their earnings revisions of seven weeks ago, the analysts have now lowered
has 8% "of stocks in Uptrend," it means that 38 of the stocks within that aggregate have a
their estimates (7wk EPS Rev < -1%).
positive Medium Term Technical Trend.
When the earnings revisions (7wk EPS Rev) fall between +1% and -1%, the trend is
Beta
considered to be neutral .
Beta is often used as a measure of sensitivity. Where a Beta is greater than 100, the stock
The symbol indicates that the last significant revisions have been trending positive. is more volatile than its reference index.
The symbol indicates that the last significant revisions have been negative. Correlation
7wk EPS Rev Correlation is the degree of similarity in which a stock fluctuates in relation to its reference
This is an abbreviation for 7 week Earnings Per Share Revision. This column indicates the index.
value of these revised earnings. A figure of 2.8 signifies that compared with seven weeks

Disclaimer:
This report is provided for your personal information only, and does not constitute or contain any solicitation, financial advice, or offer to buy or sell any kind of securities. This report was based on sources
that we consider reliable, but we do not warrant the accuracy and exhaustiveness of the information, opinions and quotes provided. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
More information: www.thescreener.com/en/wc/methodology.htm
Earnings forecasts provided by REFINITIV.

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