Yalem Proposal, Keleta PDF

SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY AND OPTIMAL ALLOCATION: CASE
OF KELETA CATCHMENT, AWASH RIVER BASIN, ETHIOPIA
MSc. PROPOSAL
YALEMSEW TEFERA
APRIL, 2019
ARBA MINCH, ETHIOPIA
SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY AND OPTIMAL ALLOCATION:
CASE OF KELETA CATCHMENT AWASH RIVER BASIN, ETHIOPIA.
YALEMSEW TEFERA
A PROPOSAL SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF HYDRAULIC AND WATER

RESOURCES ENGINEERING, ARBAMINCH WATER TECHNOLOGY INSTITUTE,
SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES, ARBAMINCH UNIVERSITY IN PARTIAL
FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE
IN HYDRAULIC ENGINEERING.
APRIL, 2019
ARBA MINCH, ETHIOPIA
ADVISOR’S PROPOSAL APPROVAL SHEET
This is to certify that the thesis proposal entitled ‘Surface water Availability and Optimal
Allocation’ has been developed by Yalemsew Tefera ID. No PRAMIT/2034/10, under my
supervision. Therefore, I recommend that the student’s proposal can be presented for review and
open oral presentation.
Dr. Kedir Mohammed _______________________ ______________________
Principal Advisor Signature date

SCHOOL OF GRADUATE STUDIES
ARBA MINCH UNIVERSITY
PROPOSAL APPROVAL SHEET
We the examiners’ board approve that this thesis proposal entitled with
“Surface Water Availability and Optimal Allocation: Case of keleta catchment
Awash River Basin.” has passed through the defense and review process and
hence can submit the thesis proposal to the department.
Submitted by:-
Yalemsew Tefera
Signature Date
Approved By:-
Chair Person Signature Date
_______________________
Internal Examiner
Signature Date
Dr. Kedir Mohammed
Principal advisor
Signature Date
PG coordinate/SGS
Signature Date
Department head __________________ _______________

Signature Date
TABLE OF CONTENTS
LIST OF ABBRIVIATIONS .................................................................................................................... iii
1. INTRODUCTION................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. Background ........................................................................................................................................ 1
1.2. Statement of the Problem ................................................................................................................... 2
1.3. Objective ............................................................................................................................................ 3
1.3.1. General Objective ....................................................................................................................... 3
1.3.2. Specific Objective ....................................................................................................................... 3
1.4. Research Questions ............................................................................................................................ 3
1.5. Significance of the Study ................................................................................................................... 3
1.6. Scope of Study ................................................................................................................................... 4
2. LETRATURE REVIEW ........................................................................................................................ 5
2.1. Water Resources ................................................................................................................................ 5
2.2. Over View of Surface Water .............................................................................................................. 5
2.3. Integrated Water Resources Management ......................................................................................... 7
2.4. Optimum Water Allocation................................................................................................................ 7
2.5. Hydrological Models ......................................................................................................................... 8
2.5.1. Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) ............................ 8
2.5.2. The Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS) ................................................................ 9
2.5.3. Window Version of Snow Melt Runoff Model (WinSRM) ...................................................... 10
2.5.4. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) ............................................................................... 10
2.5.5. Modell selection ........................................................................................................................ 11
2.6. Hydraulic Model for Water Allocation and Demand ....................................................................... 12
2.6.1. Allocating Qualified Tool (AQUATOOL) ............................................................................... 12
2.6.2. Modular Simulation Model (MODSIM) ................................................................................... 13
2.6.3 River Basin Simulation Model (RIBASIM) .............................................................................. 13
2.6.4. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP).................................................................................. 14
2.6.5. Model selection for Demand and Allocation ............................................................................ 14
3. MATERIALS AND METHODS ......................................................................................................... 16
3.1. Description of the Study Area .......................................................................................................... 16
3.1.1. Climate ...................................................................................................................................... 17
3.1.2. Soil ............................................................................................................................................ 18
3.1.3. Land Use Land Cover ............................................................................................................... 18
AWTI Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, M.Sc. Proposal Page i
3.1.4. Hydrology and Drainage ........................................................................................................... 19
3.2. Data Collection Methods and Data Analysis ................................................................................... 19
3.3. Surface Water Availability and Optimum Allocation ...................................................................... 21
4. EXPECTED OUTCOME ..................................................................................................................... 24
5. WORK PLAN........................................................................................................................................ 25
6 FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS ......................................................................................................... 26
7. REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................................... 27
AWTI Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, M.Sc. Proposal Page ii
LIST OF ABBRIVIATIONS
IWRM Integrated water resources management
HEC-HMS Hydrologic Engineering center -Hydrologic modelling System
WEAP Water Evaluation and planning
FAO Food and Agricultural Organization
DSS Decision Supporting System
GIS Geographic Information System
RIBASIM River Basin simulation model
SCS Soil conservation service
PRMS Precipitation runoff modelling system
HRU Hydrologic response unit
WinSRM Window Version of Snow Melt Runoff Model
SWAT Soil and Water Assessment Tool
DEM Digital Elevation Model
AQUATOOL Allocating Qualified Tool
USACE US Army Corps of Engineers
MODSIM Modular simulation Model
a.m.s l Above mean see level
AWTI Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, M.Sc. Proposal Page iii
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. Background
Determining water availability of catchment have significant advantage for sustainable resource
utilization and integrated water resources management (Hoff et al., 2011). Effective water
resources development is widely recognized as it is crucial for sustainable economic growth and
poverty reduction in developing countries. Even though one of the significant natural resource is
water it is still quite difficult to manage. According to shibani, et al. (2019) the population
growth and economic growth in any area exert considerable pressure on the natural resources
system. In many basins of the world increasing water demand is leading to the over
exploitation of limited water resources and frequent and more pronounced periods of extreme
water scarcity. Regardless of wide acceptance of the principles of Integrated Water Resources
Management (IWRM), which calls for a diverse quality approach to resolving water
management issues, responses still focus narrowly on supply side management, or the hydraulic
mission, which includes large-scale infrastructure projects, such as dams, reservoirs and water
transfers (Hoff et al., 2011).
Biswas (2004) state that surface water is one of the important resources used for economic
development of a country and function of ecosystem. Almost every sector of a nation’s
economy uses water information for planning, development or operational purposes. Solution to
water problems depend not only on water availability but also integrated water resources
management. Integrated water resources management (IWRM) is a key solution of any water
related problems. It is important to give attention to the development of IWRM and water
efficiency measures because working on IWRM increases the water resources potential,
decrease scarcity, and leads to have better environment for the ecology and enhance economic
factors (Mark and Tushaar, 2014).
Ethiopia has abundant surface water resources that can be used for different purposes. There are
12 major river/drainage basins seven of which are transboundary. The total annual runoff from
these basins is estimated at about 111 billion cubic meters (MoWR, 2001). Successful
understanding of any water resources activity is essential to a country like Ethiopia for the
AWTI Department of Hydraulic and Water Resources Engineering, M.Sc. Proposal Page 1
development of the national economy. The appropriate planning, design, construction and
operation of water resource uses are therefore, essential.
Determining the water resource potential and their analogous users in a given river locally,
nationally or globally is a most important tool to implement the integrated water resource
management approach efficiently. The potential and availability of surface waters, currently the
government of Ethiopia is undertaking large investment on water resource investigation and
development for various uses. This would help to increase the productivity of micro dams, to
improve means of the traditional irrigation management system, to enhance potable water
supply of the country (Nata, 2006).
The major water demands at Keleta catchment are irrigation demand, water supply demand, and
livestock demand even though there are a number of irrigations (traditional and modern system
irrigation), and water supply schemes there are a significant water loss in the system at
diversions and through distributions system. On the other hand, most of irrigation system
mainly traditional irrigation schemes over utilize catchments water. This study is going to
determine the surface water availability of the catchment and deal how to optimally allocate the
available water for all demands.
1.2. Statement of the Problem
Biswas (2004) state that water problem varies significantly from place to place, season to
season and also year to year. Solutions for water problem are not only availability of water,
there are also other factors such as water management process, development and management
practices, appropriate implementation of existing legal frameworks are some ways to solve
water problems.
Any water resource development work should be integrated with watershed management and
demand-supply has to be balanced based on the available water resource (Mark and Tushaar,
2014). Keleta River is one of the rivers that found in Oromia region near Huruta town, that
contribute a major flow to the upper Awash river basin. Even though there are a number of
irrigation and water supply projects at the catchment there is no optimal allocation system and
the river water availability is not determined, thus it is relevant to determine the surface water
availability and optimum allocation for all demands. On the other hand, the integrated water
resources management work at the catchment is not sufficient for sustainable utilization of
water resources. Thus, this study will have a significant importance and contribution to the
national effort on implementing IWRM in parallel with utilization.
1.3. Objective
1.3.1. General Objective
The general objective of the study is to quantify the surface water availability of Keleta
catchment and optimum water allocation for demand.
1.3.2. Specific Objective
The specific objectives of the study are
✓ To estimate the surface water availability of the catchment.

✓ To identify water demands of various users as a function of time.
✓ To set optimal water allocation system and water use planning.
✓ To evaluate the relationship between available surface water and water demands.
1.4. Research Questions
✓ How much surface water is available in Keleta catchment?

✓ How much water is required for current demand and future demand?
✓ Is there sufficient surface water available for the demand? (i.e. demand and availability
relationship)
✓ How optimal water allocation can be attained for demand?
1.5. Significance of the Study
Due to unbalance utilization of water resource, water scarcity has increased globally and
frequent raising of conflict between users is becoming common. Water allocation plans and
agreements have taken on increasing significance in resolving international, regional as well as
local conflicts over access to water.
The study is significant that it will analyze water availability, demand growth and how to
control utilization of the water (i.e. over and under utilization) in the catchment to solve
conflicts among different users by developing optimization system. The study will help
different users for effective utilization and optimum allocation of the water in the catchment. It
will also have a contribution to policy makers, stake holders and to fill knowledge gap.
1.6. Scope of Study
The study will focus on water availability and optimum allocation for demand (considering both
current and future demand). The study area will be limited to Keleta catchment which is one of
the major tributaries of Awash river basin (Upper Awash). It will analyze only the existing
surface water availability of the catchment for current and future demand. This study will use
hydrology model (HEC-HMS) for water availability assessment and hydraulic model, water
evaluation and planning (WEAP) to evaluate the impact on available water resource towards the
demand and development, to develop optimum water allocation.
2. LETRATURE REVIEW
2.1. Water Resources
Water is a naturally circulating resource that is constantly recharged. Even though stock of
water in natural and artificial reservoir are important to increase the availability of water
resources the main concern of assessment of water resource should be the flow of water.
Though there is a lot of water on earth current global withdrawals are large and it still more than
two billion people live in highly water-stressed areas because of the uneven distribution of
renewable fresh water resource in time and space (Oki & Kanae, 2006). Water is always in
motion, passing from one state to another and from one location to another that’s why rational
planning and management is a complex task under best circumstance (Biswas, 2004).
Most commonly it is explained that there is a lot of water on earth but only 2.5% is fresh water
because most of this water is stored in glacier and deep ground water only small amount of
water is easily accessible. Only about 2000 km3 amount of water stored in all the rivers in the
world which is much less than annual water abstraction of 3800 km3/s. About 45,500 km3/s of
annual discharge of water availability will flow from the continent to seas through rivers (Oki &
Kanae, 2006).
According to Giordanoa and shah (2014), Integrated water resources management is a key for
any water related problems to have sustainable water resources development. It is important to
give attention to the development of IWRM and water efficiency measures because working on
IWRM increases the water resources potential, decrease scarcity, and leads to have better
environment for the ecology and enhance economic factors
2.2. Over View of Surface Water
Surface water is a water either flows or stored over the surface of the ground.it may be available
in the form of lakes, streams, rivers, oceans, canals, ponds. It is the outcome of overland run off
of rain water and flow of water from sprigs that found at bottom of mountains in the form of
streams. Nata (2006) state that the availability of water greatly determines the spatial pattern of
Earth’s terrestrial biomes (forest, grasslands and deserts); it covers 71 % of the Earth’s surface
providing habitat for fresh and saltwater ecosystems; water is a major controlling element of the
Earth’s climate, and it is water that is largely responsible for sculpting the Earth’s surface into
the infinitely complex associations of erosional and depositional landforms.
Surface water is very important for numerous purposes, for instance it serves for sustainable
environment, for ecology, for productive agriculture, for industry and for public purpose.
Therefore, surface water resource treatment is a key aspect of water resource assessment. Since
information of water resource is very important for every development sector and due to the
case, that water problems are not the same over time and space it is important to make a
comprehensive assessment of surface water Availability of rivers in order to manage the
resources for both ecology and to utilize the potential of the river efficiently by build well-
organized infrastructure (Sok & Oeurng, 2016).
The geographical location of Ethiopia and its nature with favorable Environmental condition
supplies a relatively higher amount of rainfall in the region. Much of the water, however, flows
across the borders being carried away by the transboundary rivers to the neighboring countries.
Although Ethiopia’s water resource is large, very little of it has been developed for agriculture,
hydropower, industry, water supply and other purposes (Nata, 2006). Constantly increasing
population in countries increases the pressure on irrigated agriculture to produce more food, and
pure water supply especially in view of the two to three times greater productivity of irrigated
agriculture than rain fed agriculture. Hence, there is a need to work towards making available
water supplies for irrigation more efficient and productive (Berhe et al., 2013).
During the previous several decades irrigation water demand increment has been met by
developing new sources of water. However, the technical, economic and environmental costs
related with the continued development of new sources make this approach undesirable for fully
meeting future growth demand (Berhe et al., 2013). Humans are now an intimate part of the
water cycle and highly determine the availability of water resources. Feedbacks to the
atmosphere and changes in runoff associated with widespread land conversion and management
also are critical (Vorosmarty, 2002).
2.3. Integrated Water Resources Management
The ideas of integrated water resources management are a call to think of water holistically, in
order to manage it across sectors, and to ensure wide participation in decision making to stop
fragmentary approaches to water management and high-handed development decisions made
for the benefit of a single user group (Giordanoa and Shah, 2014). The first recommendation of
the UN-Water survey was not related to the solution of any particular water problem; it was,
rather, that “countries, particularly those that are lagging behind, need to prioritize the
development of IWRM and water efficiency measures, with the help of supporting agencies”
(UN-Water, 2008).
With approximately one-fifth of the world’s population living under conditions of water
scarcity, IWRM is and will remain a globally relevant concept (FAO, 2013) We face daunting
water management challenges as demand hits the limits of supply, intersectoral competition
increases, water quality declines and aquatic ecosystems come under threat. The concept of
integrated water resources management (IWRM) provides ideas to help us consider how we can
best make social choices about water allocation and access as well as the sustainability of water
resources and the infrastructure we use to manage those resources (Giordanoa and Shah, 2014).
2.4. Optimum Water Allocation
The concept of a suitable water allocation policy assumes an increasing relevance in the context
of growing scarcity and competing uses of water. Simulation models and decision support
system can play an important role in providing alternative options to allocate water resources
for various uses under different possible ways (Berhe et al., 2013) The largest portion of river
water abstraction and water consumption from rivers, lakes and aquifers is for the purpose of
irrigation (Rost, 2008). The amount of water transported from distant regions involved in
irrigation i.e., the amount of water withdrawn and consumed in excess of locally accessible,
surface-near supplies is highly uncertain, thus it is crucial to quantify not only the overall
amount of water extraction and consumption but also the nonrenewable and newly introduced
fractions within a common, consistent framework (Rost, 2008).
The conflict of gaining optimum benefit from available water resources and at the same time
preventing damages caused by the development of water resources is being experienced in most
of river basins in Africa, this is due to uncoordinated water resource development in upstream
areas are seriously affecting middle and downstream areas (Sobowale et al., 2010). One of the
applications of decision support system (DSS) in water resources management is to help
optimally allocate limited water for various uses (Berhe et al., 2013).
2.5. Hydrological Models
Models application in hydrological studies has become very necessary tool for understanding of
the natural processes occurring at the watershed scale. A number of computer-based hydrologic
models have been developed and available for applications in hydrologic modeling and water
resources studies (Dhami and Pandey, 2013)
Accurate understanding of rainfall-runoff modeling is an important precondition for flood

management, and serves various purposes such as overall assessment of the catchment response
as a part of strategic and master planning to detailed network and supportive elements design.
The biggest challenge facing modelers is choosing a rainfall-runoff model which can correctly
simulate a wide range of floods (Laouacheria & Mansouri, 2015). Here some comparison is
made between some hydrological models and select HEC-HMS for determination of water
availability of Keleta catchment.
2.5.1. Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS)
HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System) is hydrologic

modeling software developed by US Army Corps of Engineers Hydrologic Engineering Center.
HEC-HMS model adopts a concept of semi-distributed modeling by using sub catchments and
channel routing components. It includes many of the well-known and well applicable
hydrologic methods to be used to simulate rainfall-runoff processes in river basins (USACE-
HEC 2010 as cited in, Laouacheria & Mansouri, 2015).
Laouacheria & Mansouri (2015) state that Basin model in HEC-HMS is set up for each sub
basin using two hydrologic elements: Sub basin and junction. The Sub basin element handles
the infiltration loss and rainfall runoff transformation process. The Junction element handles the
observed flow data. Among the available hydrologic methods (USACE-HEC 2010) the initial
and the constant loss method is used to handle the infiltration loss. Besides the spatial
distribution of the rainfall, the temporal distribution pattern has always been a major problem in
hydrologic studies
HEC-HMS includes a soil moisture accounting algorithm, thus qualifying it for consideration.
Input data for HEC-HMS is generated with HEC-GeoHMS which incorporates spatial analyst
and other features of Arc-GIS. Digital Elevation model Data was used in HEC-GeoHMS for
generating drainage paths and sub basins along with other features such as sub basin slope and
area, drainage path slopes, and longest flow paths of sub basin. These parameters were then
used as input for HEC-HMS. Then model will generate runoff by precipitation. Soil
Conservation Service (SCS) curve number can be used for the precipitation loss calculations.
The curve number for each sub basin can be generated with the land use and soil type data.
While runoff transformation from precipitation can be conducted using SCS unit hydrograph
method (Dhami & Pandey, 2013).
2.5.2. The Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS)
The Precipitation Run off Modeling System of the deterministic, distributed parameter, physical
process hydrologic model used to simulate and evaluate the watershed response of various
combinations of climate and land use. Response to normal and extreme rainfall and snowmelt
can be simulated to evaluate changes in water-balance relations, streamﬂow regimes, soil-
moisture relations, and groundwater recharge (Markstrom et al., 2015).
Distributed-parameter capabilities are given by partitioning a watershed into different

hydrologic response units (HRUs) based on the physical attributes of the watershed such as
land-surface elevation, slope and aspect, vegetation type, soil type, and spatiotemporal climate
patterns. The physical attributes and hydrologic response of each HRU are assumed to be
homogeneous. A water balance and an energy balance are determined daily for each HRU. The
sum of the responses of all HRUs, weighted on a unit-area basis, produces the daily watershed
response in the most basic configuration (Markstrom et.al, 2015)
The model is well suited for simulating streamflow and its hydrologic components from
snowmelt dominated basins. Every component of the hydrologic cycle is expressed in the form
of known physical laws or empirical relationships that have some physical interpretation depend
on measurable watershed characteristics PRMS can function either as a lumped or distributed
parameter type model and simulates both mean daily flows and storm flow hydrograph (Dhami
& pandey, 2013)
2.5.3. Window Version of Snow Melt Runoff Model (WinSRM)
WinSRM is the windows version of the Snow melt Runoff Model (SRM) which is a degree-day
(i.e. snow melting per 1oC increase in daily air temperature) based deterministic conceptual
model developed to simulate and forecast daily stream flow in mountainous basins where snow
melt is a major runoff component and has also been applied to evaluate the effect of changed
climate on seasonal snow cover and runoff (Martinec et al., 2008). SRM uses snow cover
information and meteorological data (daily precipitation and daily average temperature) as input
variables and elevation bands for spatial discretization (Dhami & Pandey, 2013).
It has great contribution for regions where water resources derived from snow and glacier melt
are a subject of intense disputes and potential conflict, we present the distinction between
methods of snowmelt runoff modeling and water resource accounting. Whereas conceptual and
physically-based hydrologic models have been developed to estimate the contribution of melt
water from mountain snowpack for water resource management (Kult & Keuser, 2012).
2.5.4. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)
The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is a physically-based continuous-time,
conceptual, long-term, distributed watershed scale hydrologic model developed by USDA’s
Agricultural Research Service (ARS), designed to predict the impact of land management
practices on the hydrology, sediment and contaminant transport in large, complex catchment. It
has capabilities of simulating surface runoff, percolation, return flow, pesticide fate and
transport, irrigation, groundwater flow, pond and reservoir storage, channel routing, plant water
use and other supporting processes from small, medium and large watersheds. It can be applied
to a large ungauged rural watershed with more than 100 numbers of sub watersheds (Dhami &
Pandey, 2013). It is a physically based semi-distributed hydrologic model operating on a daily
time step and uses a modified Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS CN) method to
calculate runoff, Using the SCS CN methodology, the model allows the user to quantify the
relative impact of management, soil, climate, and vegetation changes at the sub watershed level
(Baker & Miller, 2013).Due to heterogeneity of catchments a number of metrological stations
are required to present the spacial variation in the hydro metrological characteristics in the area.
The lack of adequate number of observation stations affects the model result.
2.5.5. Modell selection
Hydrological processes simulated by a model is the first question to answer whether model has
capability to produce the required output or not. All the models included mentioned above are
distributed parameter and physically-based. For instance, WinSRM simulates only average daily
discharge at the basin outlet. Dhami & Pandey (2013) state that Input data required to run a
model is another important criterion for the selection and application of any hydrologic model.
Lack of required data to run the model is a major constraint felt (especially in developing world)
for successful application of any model. SWAT model requires extensive data and it’s difficult
to apply if there is lack of full data. It also uses daily precipitation as input and curve number
equation to daily based without considering intensity. The other important criteria for selection
of model are spatial and temporal scale. All the models above are distributed parameter,
continuous time scale models but HEC HMS and PRMS model can simulate storm events also.
PRMS can be applied either as a lumped or distributed parameter type model. It is suitable for
coupling with other models but it may subject to computational instability problem due to its
governing equations requiring numerical approximation for their solutions. WinSRM is robust,
computationally efficient and accurate model for simulating snow dominated watersheds. HEC-
HMS is promising model for providing multiple options to simulate hydrologic processes, it
doesn’t need extensive data (Dhami & Pandey, 2013). The following table shows the spatial and
temporal scale of some models.
Table 1 Spatial temporal scale of the selected hydrological model
Model Spatial scale Time scale Computational time

set up
PRMS Watershed Event & Continuous Minutely, Daily
SWAT Flexible Continuous daily
WinSRM Flexible; any size Continuous daily
HEC-HMS Flexible Event & Continuous Minutely, Hourly,
Daily
Source: Dhami and Pandey (2013)
considering mentioned above requirements HEC-HMS is promising model for providing

multiple options to simulate hydrologic processes therefore HEC-HMS is selected for
determining availability of keleta catchment.
2.6. Hydraulic Model for Water Allocation and Demand
A large variety of generic simulation models within interactive graphics-based interfaces has
been developed by public and private organizations. They all are designed for study of water
related planning and management cases in water systems and for satisfaction of those at
different levels of planning and decision-making process (Assaf et al., 2008).
Generic simulation models provide information to improve water system management and
planning processes. Specially under scarce water conditions, simulation models provide an
efficient way to predict source-demand interactions and the impacts of rule modifications, over
time and space, in order to set appropriate drought mitigation measures. Appropriate
intervention can reduce the impact of water scarcity, resulting in mitigating economic, social,
and environmental consequences of droughts in actual systems (Sechi & Sulis, 2010). Some
Generic Simulation Models for Water Resource Systems are compared bellow.
2.6.1. Allocating Qualified Tool (AQUATOOL)
AQUATOOL model was designed for operational management and planning stages of decision-
making in complex basins comprising multiple reservoirs, aquifers and demand centers (Sulis &
Sechi, 2013).
The decision support systems (DSS) consists a number of modules, among which a simulation
module one is SimWin. The simulation in SimWin is made on a monthly basis and it allows
adequately shaping the nonlinear processes as evaporation and infiltration. SimWin
distinguishes five types of oriented connections that allow the user to reproduce losses of water,
hydraulic connections between nodes, reservoirs and aquifers and flow limitation based on
elevation. The optimization of the flow network attempts to minimize several target functions
on reservoirs, demands and rivers subjected to the restrictions of mass conservation and to
physical capacities for an effective use of all SimWin features, good skills and experience in
resource modelling is required (Sechi & Sulis, 2010).
2.6.2. Modular Simulation Model (MODSIM)
MODSIM simulates water allocation in the system at each time step through sequential solution
of a network flow optimization problem where nonlinearities (i.e. evaporation, groundwater
return flows, channel losses etc.) are assessed within a successive approximations solution
procedure. Reservoir balancing routines that allow division of reservoir storage into several
operational zones can be used to control spatial distribution of available reservoir storage.
Additionally, operating rules on reservoir regulation and demand allocation can be conditioned
on user defined hydrologic state variables. It has been linked with MODFLOW for the analysis
of the conjunctive use of groundwater and surface resources. MODSIM can be applied in an
implicit stochastic optimization framework where optimal rules for integrated operation are
obtained using the generalized dynamic programming software package CSUDP. The use of the
main module requires moderate training, whereas external modules are quite hard to be used
without skills in modelling (Sechi & Sulis, 2010).
2.6.3 River Basin Simulation Model (RIBASIM)
RIBASIM is a generic model package for simulating the behavior of river basins under various
hydrological conditions. Different scenarios can be easily compared based on user-defined
objectives through the powerful graphical interface. The analysis of water demand is extensive
(i.e., based on demographic, economic, crop water requirements aspects), and the current and
future demands at different horizons can be compared.
RIBASIM provides fixed operating rules based on target storage volumes and multiple zoning.
The model particularly addresses the hydrological and hydrographical description of the river-
basins and links the hydrological water inputs at various locations with the specific water-users
in the supply system. It allows the user to define operating/planning scenarios where each
scenario is characterized by a particular operating rule and/or water supply projection. While it
is intuitive and easy to use, it requires significant data to perform detailed analysis (Sulis &
Sechi, 2013).
2.6.4. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)
According to sulis & sechi (2013) WEAP model simulations are constructed as a set of
scenarios with different simulation time steps. These demand scenarios are applied
deterministically to a linear programming allocation algorithm where each demand and source
is assigned a user-defined priority. The linear program solves the water allocation problem by
trying to maximize satisfaction of demand subject to supply preferences and demand priorities
while using reservoir operating policies to minimize the distance to ideal conditions. The water
allocation problem is solved at each time step using an iterative, computationally expensive
approach. Traditional target storage levels, multiple zones, and reduced releases by a buffer
coefficient are implemented in WEAP. Supply balancing within demand centers with the same
priority is assured by that approach.
The model integrates some physical hydrological processes with the management of demands
and infrastructure to allow for multiple scenario analyses, including alternative climate
scenarios and changing anthropogenic stressors. The first objective of the water management
analysis in WEAP is the analysis of water demand configuration. WEAP requires significant
data and a moderate amount of experience for a detailed analysis (Sulis & Sechi, 2013)
2.6.5. Model selection for Demand and Allocation
According to Sulis & Sechi (2013) there are a number of generic simulation models for instance
AQUATOOL, MODSIM and WEAP are models where optimization methods are developed on
the single time period and results used as an efficient mechanism for performing simulations,
whereas RIBASIM is simulation-only model based on a more conventional if-then approach.
For the model AQUATOOL, the simulation and management of the surface system are made at
once, solving a conservative flow network optimization problem for each month in the
simulation period. Though in MODFLOW model water is allocated according to physical,
hydrological, and institutional aspects, is not a simple task as it requires an extensive calibration
phase. WEAP, a standard linear program, it is used to solve the water allocation problem at
every time step, understanding values of previous time steps. Its objective is to maximize
satisfaction of demand based on supply preferences and demand priorities, thus in addition to
mentioned information it is easily understandable and suitable therefore I prefer WEAP model
for study of water demand and allocation in my study area.
3. MATERIALS AND METHODS
3.1. Description of the Study Area
Keleta catchment is found in Arsi Zone, Oromia national regional state central Ethiopia and
forms the upper part of the Awash River drainage system. It is located between 7° 53′ 49′′ to
8° 17′ 01′′ N latitude and 39° 14′ 34′′ to 39° 32′ 40′′ E longitude, at a distance of 200 km
East of Addis Ababa, capital city of Ethiopia. The stream is a major tributary of Awash
River and the catchment area covers 850 km2 of land. The topography of the catchment is
undulating with hills, mountains, plateaus, and river valleys. (Bekele et al., 2018) state that
the altitude ranges from 1583 m a.s.l north of hututa town to 4199 m a.s.l at chilalo
mountain. The slope gradient varies from flat lands on the valley bottom to very steep slopes
on the surrounding mountain ranges. Figure 1 bellow shows the location of keleta
catchment.
Figure 1 Location and of study area
3.1.1. Climate
The climate in the study area is characterized as semi-arid in the downstream part and wet
sub-humid in the upstream (Tibebe & Bewket, 2011). Meteorological records from Huruta
station (2044 m.a.s.l; 8° 08′ N and 39° 20′ E) indicate that the mean annual rainfall of the
area is around 890 mm, while the mean annual maximum and minimum temperatures are
23.8 and 8.6 °C, respectively.
There are three main seasons characterize the study area: The first one is the long rainy
season in summer, which lasts from June to September. the ‘summer’ rain represents 50-
70% of the average yearly total. The second is the dry period (called ‘bega’), which extends
between October and February that occasional rains during this period bring 10-20% of the
yearly average. The ‘bega’ season is known as the main harvest season in the area. The third
season, which is locally known as ‘belg’ is of a ‘small rain’ season accounting for 20-30%
of the annual amount, and stays from March to May. As per the climate of the watershed,
from dry semi-arid in the lower part to wet Sub humid in the upper part is identified. The
average annual rainfall is ranging from 680.53 mm to 930.60 mm and the mean maximum
and minimum temperature ranges from 23.08 0C to 30.85 0C and from 10.280C to 15.490C
(Tibebe & Bewket, 2011)
3.1.2. Soil
There are different types of soil in the catchment area the major soil types in the area are,
Chromic Luvisol, Chromic Vertisol, Eutric Cambisol, Eutric Gleysol, Eutric Nitosol, Eutric
Regosol, Vitric Andosol, and Lithosol. Chromic Vertisol, Lithosol and Eutric Cambisol
cover more than 60 % of the watershed. Chromic Vertisol covers 29.14%, Lithosol accounts
23.03% and Eutric Cambisol accounts 20.23%. Most of the upper part of the watershed is
covered with Luvisol and Nitosol, this is because of the humid environment which is the
result of highly weathering. The middle part of the watershed is dominated by Lithosol and
Vertisol with some Regosol. Lithosol and Regosol are characterized by not mature type of
soil and can occur on steep slope. The lower part soil in the watershed is mostly covered by
Andosol and Cambisol (Tibebe & Bewket,2011).
3.1.3. Land Use Land Cover
The catchment is characterized by different land use land cover, about 73 per cent of the
total area is cultivated land. Eight major land use and land cover types are identified in the
watershed these are, cultivated land, mixed shrub and cultivated land, grassland, shrub land
with exposed rocks, forests, mixed forest and cultivated land, afro-alpine with grassland and
settlement. There are two urban settlements, namely Sire and Huruta, in the Catchment. The
farming system is a mixed crop-livestock system that is carried on a subsistence scale.
Barley, wheat, maize, tef (Eragrostis tef), haricot bean and sorghum are the important crops
cultivated (Tibebe & Bewket, 2011).
3.1.4. Hydrology and Drainage
The catchment is characterized by the high surface water resources potential. This is due to
high rainfall in the area. The relief of the area makes a plenty of streams to be occurred.
Some of the biggest streams that are occurred in the area are Boru and Wedecha from the
Western, Chancho from Eastern and Bedessa in middle. The catchment is bounded by the
Arsi Highlands, specifically, the Chilalo Mountain. There is no inlet source in the watershed
and only one outlet through which the keleta river is joined the main channel of the Awash
River (Tibebe & Bewket, 2011).
3.2. Data Collection Methods and Data Analysis

Data required and sources
Table 2 data source and description
No data description Source

1 Spatial data (DEM, watershed delineation, stream processing
soil & LULC data) and determining availability
MOWR
2 Precipitation data Daily rainfall data is Required for runoff
analysis ENMA
3 River flow data Required for surface water availability
analysis
MOWR
4 Irrigation water It is needed for analysis of irrigation Water & energy bureau
demand data water requirement of the region and
Agricultural office of
the area
5 Livestock data For analysis of Livestock water demand Agricultural office of
the area
6 Water supply data Required to analyze urban and rural Water supply office of
water demand the area
7 Census For analysis of number of populations Central Statistics
with per capital demand agency
Checking the Availability of Metrological Data/Rainfall/
Rainfall data is one of important data to be collected from the national meteorological
services agency for Keleta river station and should be checked first before used in the
analysis process. The rainfall data will be checked with the following methods.
1. Filling of missed rainfall data
Record at many rain gauge stations may consist of short breaks due to many reasons such as
absence of the observer, instrumental failures, error of observer etc. It is better to estimate
these missing records and fill the gaps. There are a number of methods that used for
estimating missing rainfall data such as arithmetic mean method, normal-ratio method and
distance power method and the like.
Among those methods the arithmetic mean method will be used because it provides good
result with three station data than others and its simplicity to use. However, this method is
applicable if the normal annual precipitations at the adjacent stations are within 10% of the
normal rainfall of the station under consideration. If not other methods of missing rainfall
data filling will be used based on data available.
2. Checking the homogeneity for rainfall stations
Homogeneity is important concern to perceive variability of rainfall data. The homogeneity

of the selected base gauging stations average monthly rainfall record will be checked. It will
be done by determining non-dimensional rainfall and plot it against monthly rainfall of the
station. The non-dimensional value of the monthly precipitation of each station can be
computed by
Pi, av
Pi = ∗ 100
Pav
Pi: -non dimensional value of precipitation for the month in a station i.
Pi, av: -is over years average monthly precipitation for the station i.
Pav: -is over year’s Average yearly precipitation of the station
3. Checking the consistency of rainfall data
The trend of precipitation records at a station may change through time due to different
factors such as change in physical environment and wind pattern. A double mass curve
technique will be used to test the consistency and accuracy of rainfall records at all stations.
Rainfall data will be checked for consistency by comparing data for a single station with
that of a pattern composed of the data from several other stations in the area.
3.3. Surface Water Availability and Optimum Allocation
The first Specific objective of this study will be to determine the surface water availability of
the catchment by simulating rainfall run off process. Data required to achieve surface water
availability determination are DEM data, metrological data, hydrological data, soil data, land
use data to achieve this specific objective the following procedures will be held.
The input data for HEC-HMS will be generated with HEC-GeoHMS which incorporates spatial
analyst and other features of Arc-GIS. DEM will be required to start processing of watershed
delineation and it will used in HEC-GeoHMS for generating drainage paths and sub catchment
along with other features such as sub catchment slope, sub catchment area and drainage path
slope of sub catchment. These parameters and time series precipitation for estimating
catchments average rainfall data will then be used as input for HEC-HMS. Then Using HEC-
HMS simulation model river flow of the catchment will be simulated. After simulation is
accomplished the next step will be determination of sensitive parameters analysis, in order to
reduce parameters and time of calibration. Model calibration will then be done to match
simulated runoff and observed runoff. Finally, the calibrated model will be validated and the
model run will be performed. The surface water availability of the catchment will be
determined.
The other specific objective is to determine demand, this objective will help to analyze either
the available water is sufficient or not for both current and future demand, for instance to
determine irrigation water requirement Cropwat 8.0 software will be used, thus crop data will be
collected from agricultural office of the area, agro-hydrological parameters such as soil water
capacity, crop coefficients etc. will be taken from FAO database, the irrigated land and crop
type will be obtained from water and energy bureau of the region and agricultural office of the
area as well as field assessment. The other demand is water supply demand, it will be analyzed
by collecting demographic data and per capital demand from CSA. The livestock demand will
be analyzed by collecting livestock data from agricultural office of the area. The following
scenarios will be used to achieve the demand.
1, Base line water demand: -The base line water demand will be done using current available
data of livestock data, water supply demand data, Irrigation demand data (i.e. it is current
demand)
2, Reference scenario: - This will be performed by extending trend of the base line water
demand in to the future.
3, scenario 1: -In this scenario I will try to see, what will happen (on availability) when the
planed irrigation expansion projects and traditional irrigations will be changed to modern to
increase the irrigation efficiency.
4, Scenario 2: - This is a water demand increment scenario. There are proposed water supply
schemes due to the standard of living the per capital demand will increase so what will be the
availability during this scenario.
Hence to achieve the third specific objective availability and demand will be inputs for WEAP
model and Optimal water allocation for demands will be done. Finally, the relationship between
available surface water and water demands will be analyzed and remedial measures will be
identified if there will be unmet demand. Figure 2 below shows the general framework of the
study that shows the process of the study to achieve the mentioned objectives.
Data
collection
Land use Metrologi DEM Observed Water

& Soil data cal data flow data demand
data
Preprocessing of Watershed
Metrological data delineation
(HEC-GeoHMS)
Hydrological
simulation
(HEC-HMS)
Sensitivity
analysis
Model
calibration
Model
validation
Run model by keeping

sensitive parameters
Result
(Availability)
Optimal allocation
(WEAP)
Figure 2 General frame work (own source)
4. EXPECTED OUTCOME
This study is expected to contribute a lot to the endeavor and alleviating different problems
occurring in the catchment by determining the total surface water availability of catchment and
make optimal water allocation for the water demand. The expected out come of this study are
the following.
• The total surface water availability of catchment.

• The water demands.
• The optimal water allocation system for demand.
• The relation between demand and availability.
5. WORK PLAN
Table 3 Time Break down
Months
No
Activities
May June July August September October
Literature review
1
Data collection
2
Data organizing analysis

3 & encoding
Mode developing &

4 Running
Data analysis&
5 interpretation
Thesis writing
6
7 Compiling & Submitting
6 FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS
Table 4 Financial requirement
1) Transportation and per diem cost

Number of items Unit Quantity Unit Total cost
cost(Birr) (Birr)
Transport for data collection Lump
sum - - 2000.00
Per diem Field 6 500 3,000.00
days
2) Material cost
1.Printing paper Pcs 5 120 600.00
2.Laptop computer Number 1 10,000 12,000.00
3.Purchasing relevant
materials (journals, books, Lump - 7000 7,000.00
note book, pens) sum
3) Service cost
1.Photocopying Lump sump
- 0.50 1000.00
2.Communication Lump sum - - 1000.00
3.Internet Services Lump sum - - 1000.00
4.printing the materials Lump sum - 1.00 1000.00
Total
cost 28,600.00
7. REFERENCES
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SURFACE WATER AVAILABILITY AND OPTIMAL ALLOCATION: CASE

OF KELETA CATCHMENT, AWASH RIVER BASIN, ETHIOPIA

CASE OF KELETA CATCHMENT AWASH RIVER BASIN, ETHIOPIA.

A PROPOSAL SUBMITTED TO THE DEPARTMENT OF HYDRAULIC AND WATER

Dr. Kedir Mohammed _______________________ ______________________

Principal Advisor Signature date

Chair Person Signature Date

Department head __________________ _______________

IWRM Integrated water resources management

HEC-HMS Hydrologic Engineering center -Hydrologic modelling System

WEAP Water Evaluation and planning

FAO Food and Agricultural Organization

DSS Decision Supporting System

GIS Geographic Information System

RIBASIM River Basin simulation model

SCS Soil conservation service

PRMS Precipitation runoff modelling system

HRU Hydrologic response unit

WinSRM Window Version of Snow Melt Runoff Model

SWAT Soil and Water Assessment Tool

DEM Digital Elevation Model

AQUATOOL Allocating Qualified Tool

USACE US Army Corps of Engineers

MODSIM Modular simulation Model

a.m.s l Above mean see level

1.2. Statement of the Problem

1.3.1. General Objective

1.3.2. Specific Objective

The specific objectives of the study are

✓ To estimate the surface water availability of the catchment.

1.4. Research Questions

✓ How much surface water is available in Keleta catchment?

1.5. Significance of the Study

1.6. Scope of Study

2.1. Water Resources

2.2. Over View of Surface Water

2.4. Optimum Water Allocation

2.5. Hydrological Models

Accurate understanding of rainfall-runoff modeling is an important precondition for flood

2.5.1. Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS)

HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System) is hydrologic

2.5.2. The Precipitation Runoff Modelling System (PRMS)

Distributed-parameter capabilities are given by partitioning a watershed into different

2.5.3. Window Version of Snow Melt Runoff Model (WinSRM)

2.5.4. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)

2.5.5. Modell selection

Model Spatial scale Time scale Computational time

considering mentioned above requirements HEC-HMS is promising model for providing

2.6. Hydraulic Model for Water Allocation and Demand

2.6.1. Allocating Qualified Tool (AQUATOOL)

2.6.2. Modular Simulation Model (MODSIM)

2.6.3 River Basin Simulation Model (RIBASIM)

2.6.4. Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP)

2.6.5. Model selection for Demand and Allocation

3.1. Description of the Study Area

3.1.3. Land Use Land Cover

3.1.4. Hydrology and Drainage

3.2. Data Collection Methods and Data Analysis

Table 2 data source and description

No data description Source

1. Filling of missed rainfall data

2. Checking the homogeneity for rainfall stations

Homogeneity is important concern to perceive variability of rainfall data. The homogeneity

Dr. Kedir Mohammed _

Department head ____ _