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Instructions
1. First and foremost enjoy the exam. Do not get unnecessarily stressed.
2. The purpose of this final is to test your understanding so that a grade can be assigned at an appropriate time.
3. All questions are compulsory.
4. All questions are multiple choice with only one correct answer.
5. In case of any doubt, do not panic please. Send an email to sivaambi@iitm.ac.in. I will be available on email from 10
AM to 2 PM and 7 PM to 12 midnight on August 22.
6. Also at the same time, do not email and ask some trivial doubts/clarifications. Kindly understand the limitations of
online communication. Email only if there is a serious error or some incomplete information without which you cannot
obtain the answer.
7. You can refer your course notes, textbook, assignments, probability tables, etc.
8. The exam closes at 1 AM on August 23rd but please treat 11:59 PM on August 22 as a hard deadline to avoid
undesirable consequences.
9. You can edit your answers even after you submit (of course before 1 AM on August 23rd)
10. You can also turn in a written solution. In this case, please write the entire question and the final answer (not the
option order since the option order is randomized for each individual). You can take a photo of your answers and email it
to sivaambi@iitm.ac.in.
11. You can always take an in class exam at a later point of time (in case you screw up something in this exam). So give
this exam in a relaxed manner.
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3. Value of P(A|B) is *
9/13
4/13
9/11
2/11
A box contains 'n+2' coins: 'n' fair coins and two fake coins. One of the fake coin has both
sides as heads, while the other fake coin had both sides as tails. A coin is picked at
random from the box (all 'n+2' coins are equally likely to be chosen) and tossed.
1/2
2/3
n/(n+2)
2/n
5. If a head comes up, then the probability that the coin is a fake is *
1/2
1/(n+2)
1/n
2/(n+2)
n/(n+2)
On a rainy day, exactly five men attend a meeting together and each one leaves their
umbrella outside the board room. After the meeting gets done, the umbrellas get mixed
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6. What is the probability that none of them return with their original umbrella? *
45/120
51/120
44/120
1/120
Let p = 0.02 denote a probability of a wicket falling in each delivery of a cricket test
match. (Assume that the outcome of each delivery is independent of other outcomes and
the probability of a wicket falling doesn’t depend on whether it is the first wicket or
second wicket or so on.)
7. What is the probability of a wicket to fall in the 10th delivery of the match? *
0.02
0.02*0.98^9
C(10,1)*0.02*0.98^9
8. What is the probability of the first wicket to fall in the 10th delivery of the match? *
C(10,1)*0.02*0.98^9
0.02*0.98^9
0.02
0.98
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9. What is the probability of a team getting all-out inside a session of the test match (i.e., all
the 10 wickets falling within 30 overs, i.e., 180 deliveries)? You may assume that this is the
first innings of a test match and the batting team is not intended on declaring in its first
innings. *
0.00362
0.00212
0.00251
0.00472
10. What is the expected number of deliveries for a team to lose 5 wickets? *
200
300
50
250
500
11. How many deliveries will the 9th partnership last on an average? *
10
450
50
250
Consider a Markov chain on 8 states labelled from 1 to 8. The entries in its probability
transition matrix P are given below. P_{i,j} is the i^{th} row and j^{th} column of the matrix P.
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P_{1,2} = P_{2,3} = P_{3,4} = P_{4,5} = P_{5,6} = P_{6,7} = P_{7,8} = P_{8,8} = p P_{1,1} = P_{2,1} =
P_{3,2} = P_{7,6} = P_{8,7} = P_{6,6} = 1-p P_{4,6} = P_{5,7} = p/2 P_{4,3} = P_{5,5} = 1-3p/2 All
the other P_{i,j}'s are zeros.
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
1,2,3,4,5
1,2,3
4,5
1,3,5,7
1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8
1,2,3,4,5
6,7,8
1,3,5,7
2,4,6,8
In the year 2021, at the end of the IPL league stage, CSK tops the list followed by MI,
followed by KKR and SRH. These four teams qualify for the playoffs and the playoff
matchups are as shown in Figure below. Assume that at the playoff stage all teams are
evenly matched, i.e., the probability of winning or losing by a team in each match in the
playoff is 0.5. The qualification process is shown in the image here: https://rb.gy/ang2o1
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3/4
1/2
1/4
3/8
1/6
1/4
1/2
3/8
1/6
1/4
3/8
1/3
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1/4
1/8
1/6
1/3
An archer shoots an arrow at a target that is a disc of radius 'r'. He is equally likely to hit
any point of the target. Let 'X' be the distance of his hit from the center.
1 for x in (0,r)
1 for x in (0,r)
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2r/3
r/2
3r/4
r/3
r^2/18
r^2/2
2r^2/9
r^2/9
r/2
r/sqrt(2)
r/sqrt(3)
2r/3
3r/4
Annual average rainfall in a city is modelled as a normal random variable with mean '100
cms' and standard deviation '20 cms'. We say that rainfall in a particular year is adequate if
it is at least '70 cms'.
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MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...
23. What is the probability that the rainfall in a particular year is adequate? *
0.93319
0.06681
0.97725
0.98865
24. Assuming that the rainfall in any year is independent of rainfall in any other year, what is
the probability that in a given stretch of 5 years at least 3 years will have adequate
rainfall? *
0.9973
0.0363
0.9637
0.9773
If the weather is good (which happens with a probability 0.9), a student walks from his
hostel to class at a speed of 5 kmph. Else, the student takes his bicycle from his hostel to
class at a speed of 15 kmph. Let the distance between his hostel and class is 2 kms, and 'T'
denote the time (in minutes) he takes.
10
12
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45
25
15
36
22.4
20
25
30
15
23.04
524.8
501.76
30
A random sample 'X_i', where 'i' goes from 1 to n, is obtained from a uniform distribution
defined over the interval [0,T], where 'T' is unknown.
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29. The maximum likelihood estimator of 'T' given the sample 'X_i' is *
min X_i
max X_i
(X_1+X_2+...+X_n)/n
sqrt(X_1^2+X_2^2+...+X_n^2)/n
n/((n+2)(n+1)^2)T^2
nT^2/(n+2)
n^2T^2/(n+2)^2
31. We define a new estimator of 'T' as 2*(X_1+X_2+...+X_n)/n. The bias and variance of the
estimator are *
0 and T^2/3
0 and T^2
T and T^2/3
T and T^2/2
Consider a Markov Chain on 10 states labelled from 1 to 10. The non-zero entries in its
probability transition matrix 'P' are given next. (P_{i,j} denotes the entry in the i^{th} row
and j^{th} column of the matrix P) P_{1,1}, P_{1,2}, P_{1,9}, P_{2,1}, P_{2,2}, P_{2,3}, P_{3,4},
P_{3,6}, P_{3,7}, P_{4,5}, P_{5,4}, P_{5,5}, P_{6,8}, P_{7,8}, P_{8,6}, P_{8,7}, P_{9,10}, P_{10,9}. All
the other P_{i,j}'s are zeros. Answer the following questions for the above Markov Chain.
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4,5
6,7,8
4,5,6,7,8
1,2
1,2,4,5,6,7,8
1,2,6,7,8
1,2,4,5
1,2,3
6,7,8,4,5
1,2,3,4,5
4,5
9,10
6,7,8
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35. What is/are their periods? (list them in the same order as above) *
2 and 2
2 and 3
3 and 2
4,5
1,2,3,4,5
6,7,8
9, 10 and 4,5
The average yield strength of a certain alloy is required to be not less than 150 ksi. Ten
specimens were drawn at random from a large lot and the following yield strengths in ksi
were reported. 145, 142, 151, 153, 138, 131, 146, 153, 131, 150 It is known that the yield
strength of the lot is normally distributed, but the mean and variance are not known.
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37. The 95% confidence interval for the mean yield strength of the entire lot is *
(138.81,149.19)
(138.02,149.98)
(139.15,148.85)
(139.75,148.25)
38. If a hypothesis testing is done at a 5% level of significance, what is the critical value
based on which the decision will be made? *
139.15
139.75
138.02
138.81
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39. If the supervisor wants the probability of not detecting the latter level of idleness as 0.1
and the level of significance at 0.05, then the value of n is *
178
225
147
25
40. Critical value based on which the supervisor makes the decision is *
178
225
147
25
There are 10 people waiting in a queue in front of two ATMs (Automated Teller Machine),
which is currently being used by two customers (i.e., each ATM is being used by one
customer and in total there are 10 customers). As soon as one of the ATM is available, the
person at the beginning of the queue starts using the ATM that is available. The time
taken by the ATM is exponentially distributed with a processing rate of 1 customer a
minute.
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41. If there are no more customers arriving to use the ATM, what is the probability that the
last person (i.e., the 10^{th} person in the queue) will be the penultimate person to
leave? *
1/10
1/2
exp(-1)/10
exp(-1)/2
A counter at the passport office on an average takes 105 seconds per person with a
standard deviation of 20 seconds.
42. What is the probability that the passport office takes within 3 hours to process 100
people? (HINT: Use the Central Limit Theorem.) *
0.9332
0.9642
0.9012
0.9528
A coin, displaying 0 and 1 on both sides, and a four sided dice, displaying 1,2,3,4 on its four
faces are tied together by a string and tossed/rolled. Let 'X' denote the number displayed
on the coin and 'Y' denote the number displayed on the dice. The joint probability mass
function is shown here. https://rb.gy/83ko3o
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1/20
1/10
1/5
1/25
1/15
11/20
3/20
9/20
17/20
45. Probability that 'Y' takes a value 3 given that 'X' takes a value 1, i.e., P(Y=3|X=1) is *
5/20
5/9
4/20
4/9
4/11
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2/5
3/5
3/20
2/20
0.84
7.6
6.76
1.96
Let 'X' be a random variable, whose probability density function is given by f_X(x) = k/x^4
for x >=1 and is zero for x<1. ('k' is a constant)
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1 for x>=1
1.5
4.5
51. Variance is *
0.75
2.25
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52. Probability that the random variable, 'X', takes a value less than 2 is *
7/8
3/4
1/2
A fair coin is tossed thrice. 'A' be the event that a head occurs on each of the first two
tosses, 'B' be the event that a tail occurs on the third toss and 'C' be the event that exactly
two tails occur in the three tosses.
1/4
1/2
1/8
3/4
3/8
1/4
1/2
1/8
3/4
3/8
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1/4
1/2
1/8
3/4
3/8
A candidate can appear for a competitive exam at-most thrice till he clears it. Probability
of him passing the exam in a given attempt is 'p', independent of other attempts. Let 'X'
be the number of attempts.
1-p
p(1-p)
p(1-p)^2
(1-p)^2
p(1-p)
(1-p)
p(1-p)^2
(1-p)^2
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1-p
p(1-p)
p(1-p)^2
(1-p)^2
3p-3p^2+p^3
1-p^3
(1-p)^3
p^3
p^2-2p+3
3p^3-8p^2+6p
p^3-3p^2+3p
p^2-3p+2
3p^2-8p+6
Let 'X' be the annual household income in Lakhs. It is given that the mean annual income
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of a household is 2 lakh.
0.4
0.2
0.6
0.8
0.25
16/900
25/900
4/900
9/900
1/900
36/900
Probability density function of a random variable 'X' is f_X(x) = a exp(-a x) with x>=0. Let
y=sqrt(x).
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2ayexp(-ay^2)
ayexp(-ay^2)
2yexp(-ay^2)
aexp(-ay^2)
2aexp(-ay^2)
64. E(Y^2) is *
1/a
1/a^2
2/a
a^2
2a
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