Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 24

MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

MA2040 Final Exam


* Required

1. Email address *

2. Roll Number *

Instructions
1. First and foremost enjoy the exam. Do not get unnecessarily stressed.
2. The purpose of this final is to test your understanding so that a grade can be assigned at an appropriate time.
3. All questions are compulsory.
4. All questions are multiple choice with only one correct answer.
5. In case of any doubt, do not panic please. Send an email to sivaambi@iitm.ac.in. I will be available on email from 10
AM to 2 PM and 7 PM to 12 midnight on August 22.
6. Also at the same time, do not email and ask some trivial doubts/clarifications. Kindly understand the limitations of
online communication. Email only if there is a serious error or some incomplete information without which you cannot
obtain the answer.
7. You can refer your course notes, textbook, assignments, probability tables, etc.
8. The exam closes at 1 AM on August 23rd but please treat 11:59 PM on August 22 as a hard deadline to avoid
undesirable consequences.
9. You can edit your answers even after you submit (of course before 1 AM on August 23rd)
10. You can also turn in a written solution. In this case, please write the entire question and the final answer (not the
option order since the option order is randomized for each individual). You can take a photo of your answers and email it
to sivaambi@iitm.ac.in.
11. You can always take an in class exam at a later point of time (in case you screw up something in this exam). So give
this exam in a relaxed manner.

P(A)=0.55, P(B^c) = 0.35, and P(A U B) = 0.75.

1 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

3. Value of P(A|B) is *

Mark only one oval.

9/13

4/13

9/11

2/11

None of the other options

A box contains 'n+2' coins: 'n' fair coins and two fake coins. One of the fake coin has both
sides as heads, while the other fake coin had both sides as tails. A coin is picked at
random from the box (all 'n+2' coins are equally likely to be chosen) and tossed.

4. Probability of getting a head is *

Mark only one oval.

1/2

2/3

n/(n+2)

2/n

None of the other options

5. If a head comes up, then the probability that the coin is a fake is *

Mark only one oval.

1/2

1/(n+2)

1/n

2/(n+2)

n/(n+2)

None of the other options

On a rainy day, exactly five men attend a meeting together and each one leaves their
umbrella outside the board room. After the meeting gets done, the umbrellas get mixed

2 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

up and each one leaves with one umbrella.

6. What is the probability that none of them return with their original umbrella? *

Mark only one oval.

45/120

51/120

44/120

1/120

None of the other options

Let p = 0.02 denote a probability of a wicket falling in each delivery of a cricket test
match. (Assume that the outcome of each delivery is independent of other outcomes and
the probability of a wicket falling doesn’t depend on whether it is the first wicket or
second wicket or so on.)

7. What is the probability of a wicket to fall in the 10th delivery of the match? *

Mark only one oval.

0.02

0.02*0.98^9

C(10,1)*0.02*0.98^9

None of the other options

8. What is the probability of the first wicket to fall in the 10th delivery of the match? *

Mark only one oval.

C(10,1)*0.02*0.98^9

0.02*0.98^9

0.02

0.98

None of the other options

3 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

9. What is the probability of a team getting all-out inside a session of the test match (i.e., all
the 10 wickets falling within 30 overs, i.e., 180 deliveries)? You may assume that this is the
first innings of a test match and the batting team is not intended on declaring in its first
innings. *

Mark only one oval.

0.00362

0.00212

0.00251

0.00472

None of the other options

10. What is the expected number of deliveries for a team to lose 5 wickets? *

Mark only one oval.

200

300

50

250

500

None of the other options

11. How many deliveries will the 9th partnership last on an average? *

Mark only one oval.

10

450

50

250

None of the other options

Consider a Markov chain on 8 states labelled from 1 to 8. The entries in its probability
transition matrix P are given below. P_{i,j} is the i^{th} row and j^{th} column of the matrix P.

4 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

P_{1,2} = P_{2,3} = P_{3,4} = P_{4,5} = P_{5,6} = P_{6,7} = P_{7,8} = P_{8,8} = p P_{1,1} = P_{2,1} =
P_{3,2} = P_{7,6} = P_{8,7} = P_{6,6} = 1-p P_{4,6} = P_{5,7} = p/2 P_{4,3} = P_{5,5} = 1-3p/2 All
the other P_{i,j}'s are zeros.

12. Identify the transient states *

Mark only one oval.

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8

1,2,3,4,5

1,2,3

4,5

1,3,5,7

None of the other options

13. Identify the recurrent states *

Mark only one oval.

1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8

1,2,3,4,5

6,7,8

1,3,5,7

2,4,6,8

None of the other options

In the year 2021, at the end of the IPL league stage, CSK tops the list followed by MI,
followed by KKR and SRH. These four teams qualify for the playoffs and the playoff
matchups are as shown in Figure below. Assume that at the playoff stage all teams are
evenly matched, i.e., the probability of winning or losing by a team in each match in the
playoff is 0.5. The qualification process is shown in the image here: https://rb.gy/ang2o1

5 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

14. Probability of CSK winning the final is *

Mark only one oval.

3/4

1/2

1/4

3/8

None of the other options

15. Probability of CSK meeting MI in the final again is *

Mark only one oval.

1/6

1/4

1/2

3/8

None of the other options

16. Probability of MI meeting SRH in the final is *

Mark only one oval.

1/6

1/4

3/8

1/3

None of the other options

6 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

17. Probability of KKR winning the final is *

Mark only one oval.

1/4

1/8

1/6

1/3

None of the other options

An archer shoots an arrow at a target that is a disc of radius 'r'. He is equally likely to hit
any point of the target. Let 'X' be the distance of his hit from the center.

18. The cumulative distribution function of 'X' is *

Mark only one oval.

x^2/r^2 for x in (0,r)

x/r for x in (0,r)

1 for x in (0,r)

None of the other options

19. The probability density function (pdf) of 'X' is *

Mark only one oval.

1 for x in (0,r)

2x/r for x in (0,r)

3x^2/r^2 for x in (0,r)

None of the other options

7 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

20. The mean value of 'X' is *

Mark only one oval.

2r/3

r/2

3r/4

r/3

None of the other options

21. The variance of 'X' is *

Mark only one oval.

r^2/18

r^2/2

2r^2/9

r^2/9

None of the other options

22. The median of the random variable 'X' is *

Mark only one oval.

r/2

r/sqrt(2)

r/sqrt(3)

2r/3

3r/4

None of the other options

Annual average rainfall in a city is modelled as a normal random variable with mean '100
cms' and standard deviation '20 cms'. We say that rainfall in a particular year is adequate if
it is at least '70 cms'.

8 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

23. What is the probability that the rainfall in a particular year is adequate? *

Mark only one oval.

0.93319

0.06681

0.97725

0.98865

None of the other options

24. Assuming that the rainfall in any year is independent of rainfall in any other year, what is
the probability that in a given stretch of 5 years at least 3 years will have adequate
rainfall? *

Mark only one oval.

0.9973

0.0363

0.9637

0.9773

None of the other options

If the weather is good (which happens with a probability 0.9), a student walks from his
hostel to class at a speed of 5 kmph. Else, the student takes his bicycle from his hostel to
class at a speed of 15 kmph. Let the distance between his hostel and class is 2 kms, and 'T'
denote the time (in minutes) he takes.

25. The expected value of his speed in kmph is *

Mark only one oval.

10

12

None of the other options

9 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

26. The variance of his speed in kmph^2 is *

Mark only one oval.

45

25

15

36

None of the other options

27. The expected value of 'T' in minutes is *

Mark only one oval.

22.4

None of the other options

20

25

30

15

28. The variance of 'T' in minute^2 is *

Mark only one oval.

23.04

524.8

501.76

30

None of the other options

A random sample 'X_i', where 'i' goes from 1 to n, is obtained from a uniform distribution
defined over the interval [0,T], where 'T' is unknown.

10 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

29. The maximum likelihood estimator of 'T' given the sample 'X_i' is *

Mark only one oval.

min X_i

max X_i

(X_1+X_2+...+X_n)/n

sqrt(X_1^2+X_2^2+...+X_n^2)/n

None of the other options

30. The variance of the above maximum likelihood estimator is *

Mark only one oval.

n/((n+2)(n+1)^2)T^2

nT^2/(n+2)

n^2T^2/(n+2)^2

None of the other options

31. We define a new estimator of 'T' as 2*(X_1+X_2+...+X_n)/n. The bias and variance of the
estimator are *

Mark only one oval.

0 and T^2/3

0 and T^2

T and T^2/3

T and T^2/2

None of the other options

Consider a Markov Chain on 10 states labelled from 1 to 10. The non-zero entries in its
probability transition matrix 'P' are given next. (P_{i,j} denotes the entry in the i^{th} row
and j^{th} column of the matrix P) P_{1,1}, P_{1,2}, P_{1,9}, P_{2,1}, P_{2,2}, P_{2,3}, P_{3,4},
P_{3,6}, P_{3,7}, P_{4,5}, P_{5,4}, P_{5,5}, P_{6,8}, P_{7,8}, P_{8,6}, P_{8,7}, P_{9,10}, P_{10,9}. All
the other P_{i,j}'s are zeros. Answer the following questions for the above Markov Chain.

11 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

32. List all states that are accessible from state 3 *

Mark only one oval.

4,5

6,7,8

4,5,6,7,8

1,2

1,2,4,5,6,7,8

1,2,6,7,8

1,2,4,5

33. List all the transient states *

Mark only one oval.

1,2,3

6,7,8,4,5

1,2,3,4,5

4,5

None of the other options

34. What is/are the periodic recurrent classes? *

Mark only one oval.

9,10 and 6,7,8

9,10

6,7,8

1,2,3 and 6,7,8

4,5, and 9,10

None of the other options

12 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

35. What is/are their periods? (list them in the same order as above) *

Mark only one oval.

2 and 2

2 and 3

3 and 2

None of the other options

36. What is/are the aperiodic (non-periodic) recurrent classes? *

Mark only one oval.

4,5

1,2,3,4,5

6,7,8

4,5 and 6,7,8

9,10 and 6,7,8

9, 10 and 4,5

None of the other options

The average yield strength of a certain alloy is required to be not less than 150 ksi. Ten
specimens were drawn at random from a large lot and the following yield strengths in ksi
were reported. 145, 142, 151, 153, 138, 131, 146, 153, 131, 150 It is known that the yield
strength of the lot is normally distributed, but the mean and variance are not known.

13 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

37. The 95% confidence interval for the mean yield strength of the entire lot is *

Mark only one oval.

(138.81,149.19)

(138.02,149.98)

(139.15,148.85)

(139.75,148.25)

None of the other options

38. If a hypothesis testing is done at a 5% level of significance, what is the critical value
based on which the decision will be made? *

Mark only one oval.

139.15

139.75

138.02

138.81

None of the other options

At any given moment, some percentage of employees in a company will not be


productively working. A supervisor believes this figure to be in excess of 20%, and wishes
to construct a hypothesis test to demonstrate the belief. He or she also believes that a
25% figure represents an unacceptable level of idleness. To check this he decides to spy
on randomly chosen 'n' employees. You may assume that the fraction of employees not
working productively is normally distributed. The supervisor would like to arrive at the
decision based on hypothesis testing.

14 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

39. If the supervisor wants the probability of not detecting the latter level of idleness as 0.1
and the level of significance at 0.05, then the value of n is *

Mark only one oval.

178

225

147

25

None of the other options

40. Critical value based on which the supervisor makes the decision is *

Mark only one oval.

178

225

147

25

None of the other options

There are 10 people waiting in a queue in front of two ATMs (Automated Teller Machine),
which is currently being used by two customers (i.e., each ATM is being used by one
customer and in total there are 10 customers). As soon as one of the ATM is available, the
person at the beginning of the queue starts using the ATM that is available. The time
taken by the ATM is exponentially distributed with a processing rate of 1 customer a
minute.

15 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

41. If there are no more customers arriving to use the ATM, what is the probability that the
last person (i.e., the 10^{th} person in the queue) will be the penultimate person to
leave? *

Mark only one oval.

1/10

1/2

exp(-1)/10

exp(-1)/2

None of the other options

A counter at the passport office on an average takes 105 seconds per person with a
standard deviation of 20 seconds.

42. What is the probability that the passport office takes within 3 hours to process 100
people? (HINT: Use the Central Limit Theorem.) *

Mark only one oval.

0.9332

0.9642

0.9012

0.9528

None of the other options

A coin, displaying 0 and 1 on both sides, and a four sided dice, displaying 1,2,3,4 on its four
faces are tied together by a string and tossed/rolled. Let 'X' denote the number displayed
on the coin and 'Y' denote the number displayed on the dice. The joint probability mass
function is shown here. https://rb.gy/83ko3o

16 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

43. Value of 'q' is *

Mark only one oval.

1/20

1/10

1/5

1/25

1/15

None of the other options

44. Probability 'X' takes the value zero, i.e., P(X=0) is *

Mark only one oval.

11/20

3/20

9/20

17/20

None of the other options

45. Probability that 'Y' takes a value 3 given that 'X' takes a value 1, i.e., P(Y=3|X=1) is *

Mark only one oval.

5/20

5/9

4/20

4/9

4/11

None of the other options

17 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

46. Expected value of 'X' given that 'Y' is 2, E(X | Y=2) is *

Mark only one oval.

2/5

3/5

3/20

2/20

None of the other options

47. Variance of 'Y' is *

Mark only one oval.

0.84

7.6

6.76

1.96

None of the other options

Let 'X' be a random variable, whose probability density function is given by f_X(x) = k/x^4
for x >=1 and is zero for x<1. ('k' is a constant)

48. Value of 'k' is *

Mark only one oval.

None of the other options

18 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

49. Cumulative distribution function (CDF) is *

Mark only one oval.

1-1/x^2 for x>=1

1-1/x^3 for x>=1

1-1/x for x>=1

1 for x>=1

None of the other options

50. Expected value is *

Mark only one oval.

1.5

4.5

None of the other options

51. Variance is *

Mark only one oval.

0.75

2.25

None of the other options

19 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

52. Probability that the random variable, 'X', takes a value less than 2 is *

Mark only one oval.

7/8

3/4

1/2

None of the other options

A fair coin is tossed thrice. 'A' be the event that a head occurs on each of the first two
tosses, 'B' be the event that a tail occurs on the third toss and 'C' be the event that exactly
two tails occur in the three tosses.

53. Probability of 'B' and 'C' happening together is *

Mark only one oval.

1/4

1/2

1/8

3/4

3/8

None of the other options

54. Probability of 'A' happening along with 'B' not happening is *

Mark only one oval.

1/4

1/2

1/8

3/4

3/8

None of the other options

20 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

55. Probability of both 'A' and 'C' not happening is *

Mark only one oval.

1/4

1/2

1/8

3/4

3/8

None of the other options

A candidate can appear for a competitive exam at-most thrice till he clears it. Probability
of him passing the exam in a given attempt is 'p', independent of other attempts. Let 'X'
be the number of attempts.

56. Probability of X=1 is *

Mark only one oval.

1-p

p(1-p)

None of the other options

p(1-p)^2

(1-p)^2

57. Probability of X=2 is *

Mark only one oval.

p(1-p)

(1-p)

p(1-p)^2

(1-p)^2

None of the other options

21 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

58. Probability of X=3 is *

Mark only one oval.

1-p

p(1-p)

p(1-p)^2

(1-p)^2

None of the other options

59. Probability that he clears the exam is *

Mark only one oval.

3p-3p^2+p^3

1-p^3

(1-p)^3

p^3

None of the other options

60. Expected number of attempts is *

Mark only one oval.

p^2-2p+3

3p^3-8p^2+6p

p^3-3p^2+3p

None of the other options

p^2-3p+2

3p^2-8p+6

Let 'X' be the annual household income in Lakhs. It is given that the mean annual income

22 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

of a household is 2 lakh.

61. Upper bound on the P(X>=5) using Markov inequality is *

Mark only one oval.

0.4

0.2

0.6

0.8

0.25

None of the other options

62. If standard deviation is 0.4 lakhs, P(X>=5) using Chebyshev inequality is *

Mark only one oval.

16/900

25/900

4/900

9/900

1/900

36/900

None of the other options

Probability density function of a random variable 'X' is f_X(x) = a exp(-a x) with x>=0. Let
y=sqrt(x).

23 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm
MA2040 Final Exam https://docs.google.com/forms/u/0/d/1fedTLuYicKo6xmQC4_...

63. The probability density function for 'Y', i.e., f_Y(y) is *

Mark only one oval.

2ayexp(-ay^2)

ayexp(-ay^2)

2yexp(-ay^2)

aexp(-ay^2)

None of the other options

2aexp(-ay^2)

64. E(Y^2) is *

Mark only one oval.

1/a

1/a^2

2/a

a^2

2a

None of the other options

This content is neither created nor endorsed by Google.

24 of 24 21/08/20, 11:00 pm

Вам также может понравиться