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Health Statistics 4
From data to policy: good practices and cautionary tales
Carla AbouZahr, Sam Adjei, Churnrurtai Kanchanachitra
Summary
Sound statistics are a key component of evidence. However, many institutional, political, and practical barriers Lancet 2007; 369: 1039–46
impede effective use of data to inform policy. In the fourth paper in this Series on health statistics, we look at the This is the fourth in a Series of
relation between health statistics and policymaking at country and global levels. We propose a fourfold framework to four papers on health statistics
help the transition from data to policy. Good practices include: (1) reconciling statistics from different sources; Health Metrics Network, World
Health Organization,
(2) fostering communication and transparency, including reaching out to the media for dissemination; (3) promoting
27 Avenue Appia, 1211 Geneva
country ownership of data and statistical analyses; and (4) addressing conflicts of interest, including those arising 27, Switzerland
when workers responsible for attainment of health goals are also charged with measurement and monitoring of (C AbouZahr MSc);
progress. Further investments are needed not only in primary data collection across a full range of sources but also Initiative for Maternal
Mortality Programme
in building capacity in countries to analyse, interpret, and present statistics effectively in ways that are meaningful
Assessment, University of
and useful for policymaking. Aberdeen, Aberdeen, UK
(S Adjei MD); and Institute for
Statistics have been described as the eyes of policymakers,1 many forms: research, economic, and statistical Population and Social
Research, Mahidol University,
yet health policymakers too often find themselves unable modelling; cost-benefit analyses; stakeholder opinion;
Bangkok, Thailand
to see clearly through the fog of competing, confusing, and public perceptions and beliefs. The important feature (C Kanchanachitra MD)
misleading, or missing data. In this Series, researchers is use of rigorous techniques to develop and maintain a Correspondence to:
have tackled the vexed issue of why, at a time of robust evidence base from which to develop policy Carla AbouZahr
unprecedented global interest and investment in health, options. Sound statistics underpin evidence-based policy, abouzahrc@who.int
provision of clear answers to simple questions—such as although they are rarely sufficient. In addition to
who dies from what cause and whether things are getting statistical data, provision of a solid analysis that sets
better or worse—is proving so hard. First, Boerma and information in context is important, as is understanding
Stansfield2 pointed to evolving complexity in health of stakeholder perceptions that could give rise to different
challenges, inveighed against epidemics of indicators, analyses of the same dataset. Here, we will focus on the
and suggested strategies to address the supply-demand systematic and rigorous use of statistics to inform
imbalance. In the second paper, Murray3 posited advocacy, programme design, and policy choice,
standards of good practice for health statistics and forecasting, monitoring, and assessment.6
critiqued well-meaning initiatives, such as the In public health, the underlying assumption is that
Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), which end up good data will lead to better decisions, which will result
distorting statistical processes. Third, Walker and in enhanced population health. This idea is the basic
colleagues4 took the user viewpoint and issued the classic premise of the Health Metrics Network and is implicit in For the Health Metrics Network
warning—caveat emptor. efforts by other groups to augment availability and quality see http://www.healthmetrics
network.org
In this fourth and final paper in the Series, we look at of health statistics, such as the Harvard Initiative for
how these global processes are perceived, interpreted, Global Health or the Initiative for Maternal Mortality
and modified at country level. How do national Programme Assessment.7–10 However, the assumption of
decision-makers manage the health statistics maelstrom, a linear relation between evidence and policy has been
navigating the stormy waters between their country’s justifiably questioned.11 In practice, no necessary linear
needs and global demands, advocacy and objectivity, sequence exists from good data to better health.
so-called empirical and modelled estimates, and Various types of data are obtained at different levels of
disease-specific and health-system perspectives? We the health system, to be used by several actors for many
recommend a fourfold schema of good practices to reasons. Providers generate and use information in the
stimulate better use of statistics to inform national context of patients’ care; managers need data to enhance
policymaking. Our approach is directed mainly at workers efficiency and effectiveness; planners rely on statistics for
whose role is to translate data into information for policy operational decisions; and policymakers use information
action, at both country and global levels. for prioritisation and resource allocation (figure 1). At the
level of clinical practice, good quality of care is greatly
The rocky path from data to policy facilitated in the presence of well-kept records of patients’
Evidence-based policymaking has been defined as a characteristics and providers’ responses. Yet good clinical
“rigorous approach that gathers, critically appraises and record-keeping remains far from universal.12 As we move
uses high quality research evidence to inform policy up the health-system pyramid, the link between data and
making and profession practice”.5 Evidence can take decisions seems more tenuous, and many factors come
sometimes arise because of the potential for endless country reports contain a wealth of raw data served in
debates about validity and appropriateness of statistical formats unpalatable or incomprehensible to policy-
methods used. makers. Presentation of complex information in simple
A report to the UN statistical commission expressed charts and maps is a well-tested route to enhancing use
concern at the extent of “significantly modified or of data for decision-making. In Thailand, efforts to better
imputed data” for reporting on progress towards MDGs.34 present and disseminate findings have been led by the
Imputed data are perceived to be unhelpful for analysis Health Information System Development Office, which
at country level. This issue is more than simply about produces analytical summaries of important health topics
data quality but is an indication of the nature of such as geographical differences in mortality.39
measurement in complex arenas such as health. Information can be conveyed directly to policymakers
Measurement is always subject to error, and when several or indirectly through secondary audiences, such as
techniques are used to obtain data for the same variable, academics, researchers, health professionals, parliament-
differences inevitably arise, as shown by debates on arians, or advocacy groups, who are in a position to affect
statistics of prevalence of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa.35 policymakers. Communication channels include semi-
Discrepancies in prevalence estimates derived from nars, peer-reviewed journals, special events, national and
antenatal surveillance and household surveys can result international meetings, and policy briefs.
in confusion and loss of credibility if not presented The media can be both friend and foe in translating
carefully to policymakers and the public. Reconciliation health information into formats for policymakers and for
of statistical values arising from different sources and civil society. Examples of misinterpretation of health
measurement techniques should be a standard part of all statistics by the media are numerous and the line between
analysis, presentation, and dissemination endeavours. appropriate public information and the creation of panic
Capacity for such reconciliation needs to be built at and so-called trial by media can be a fine one.40 Failure to
country level rather than monopolised by development distinguish cases of diarrhoea from cholera caused panic
partners. in South Africa, for example.41 On the other hand, the
public can be reassured when media reporting is timely
Information communication and accurate.42 Some countries have set standards and
Even when data have been gathered and summarised to guidelines for information dissemination, including
high standards, further analysis—of what is both reported relations with the media.43 Statistics Canada relies on
and missing—is usually needed before the information media coverage to inform the public of the findings of its
can be disseminated and communicated to non-technical many surveys and related programmes and, in the case
audiences and used as the basis for policymaking.36 Data of the census, the actual census-taking. Policies have
should be presented and assessed not for their empirical been elaborated to guide this ongoing relation.44
worth alone but in formats that emphasise relations to
past trends, current policy, and fiscal considerations. Country ownership
Much reporting falls far short of this standard. Even If a country’s policymakers are to use data for
when collection procedures are well-established and decision-making then they need to feel that the statistics
annual reports available—containing many tables and in question are actually theirs—that they have a part to
charts (as in Uganda37 and Cambodia38 for example)—there play in changing the situation.14 Scientific criteria alone
is generally little in terms of verbal summary or are rarely sufficient to persuade policymakers who have
interpretation to guide attention to the essentials. Many to account for overall policy context, stakeholder
perceptions, and societal values. One of the difficulties
with global estimation efforts is that they sometimes fail
Panel: Good practice recommendations to generate ownership on the part of those in a position
• Reconcile data from different sources rather than relying to effect change at a country level. Ownership means
on only one source of information. Dependence on single more than passive consultation from technical experts to
sources increases risk of making decisions based on national focal points. In developing estimates of HIV
statistics that are incomplete or biased. prevalence, a proactive approach has been taken to
• Foster transparency in the way data are obtained, ensure country involvement. The estimation and
analysed, and presented, and make effective use of the projection package and spectrum AIDS modules,
media for dissemination of information. developed with support from WHO and UNAIDS, are
• Promote country ownership of statistics and reduce used by countries themselves to generate prevalence
disputes between national authorities and global agencies. estimates and mortality projections based on sentinel
• Explicitly recognise and address conflicts of interest of surveillance data. This approach has helped greatly, not
stakeholders, especially of those responsible for advocacy only to ensure acceptance of the results but also to
and fundraising for specific health initiatives and those in strengthen basic data collection because all countries
charge of overall health policy. receive training and capacity building on a regular basis.
However, the process is costly and time-consuming and
can be perceived as diverting resources away from the monitoring and assessment from service provision,
delivery of interventions. creating the Health Systems Research Institute in 1992,
By contrast with HIV estimates, those for maternal with the mandate to assess health system and policy and to
mortality were developed by WHO, UNICEF, and the report on progress towards national health goals.50 The
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) with little institute is made up of widely respected senior academics
country involvement.45 Although the estimates had a and is legally independent of government, having its own
positive effect in terms of drawing attention to a hitherto governing board, although it receives government funding.
neglected issue, many countries objected strenuously to In Ghana in 2003, a research, statistics, and information
the estimates, and policymakers disavowed their use. management division was established, designed to be
However, these statistics did stimulate attention to independent of other corporate interests within the
empirical data collection. For example, Thailand ministry of health or Ghanaian health services.23 The
undertook a systematic review of data for maternal intention was to ensure separation of information
mortality and noted that, depending on source and collection and processing functions from management
methods, estimates of maternal mortality could vary by a functions, thus preserving independence and integrity of
factor of three.46 all management functions and enhancing the credibility of
Good examples of enhancing ownership are emerging monitoring and assessment. In practice, issues related to
from the move to decentralisation and district-level precise demarcation of roles and responsibilities between
autonomy.47 When data gathered at district level can be the government units dealing with health information are
analysed and managed effectively, and a direct link is still to be resolved. These examples are illustrative of
made to decision making (in particular, resource continuing tensions between people who provide services
allocation), the sense of ownership is raised and and those who monitor performance.
evidence-based decisionmaking is fostered. This process Such debates are by no means confined to the national
requires skills to be built at local level, not only in data setting, but can be equally potent at regional and global
collection but also in data handling, management, levels. For example, Murray and colleagues51 have
analysis, and report writing. The Tanzania Essential criticised WHO for being constitutionally incapable of
Health Interventions Project31 links data producers, maintaining objectivity and integrity in the face of
district managers, and policymakers through district-level country pressures and of being driven to manipulate data
estimates of burden of disease (based on local mortality to meet the needs of disease-focused advocacy and
data) and district health expenditures. programming.
Future investments should be thought through care- 15 Centers for Disease Control, Division of Epidemiology and
fully to avoid further fragmentation of national health Surveillance Capacity Development, Coordinating Office for Global
Health. Data for decision making. http://www.cdc.gov/descd/ddm/
information systems along disease-focused lines. (accessed March 30, 2006).
Investments should be used to build up a country’s 16 Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.
capacity across a full range of data sources, not only Statistics, knowledge, policy: an OECD world forum to strengthen
the nexus between statistics and policy making. http://euclid.ucc.
routine service data and population-based sample surveys ie/pages/CASI06/Giovanini.doc (accessed Jan 25, 2007).
but also comprehensive civil registration systems with 17 Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, McKinsey & Company. Global
accurate and timely noting of births, deaths, and causes health partnerships: assessing country consequences. Paper
presented at the 3rd High-Level Forum on the Health MDGs; Paris,
of death. Increased investment needs to be directed into France; Nov 14–15, 2005. http://www.hlfhealthmdgs.org/
regular health accounts so that policymakers can track Documents/GatesGHPNov2005.pdf (accessed Jan 26, 2007).
resource allocation alongside health outcomes. 18 High-Level Forum on the Health MDGs. Best practice principles for
global health partnership activities at country level: report of the
Investment in building capacity in countries is equally working group on global health partnerships. Paper presented at
important for enhanced analysis and interpretation of the 3rd High-Level Forum on the Health MDGs; Paris, France;
existing data. Production and use of better health statistics Nov 14–15, 2005. http://www.hlfhealthmdgs.org/Documents/
GlobalHealthPartnerships.pdf (accessed Jan 26, 2007).
needs a comprehensive strategic approach, aimed at 19 Development Assistance Committee of the Organisation for
generation of better data now and at growth of sustainable Economic Cooperation and Development. The Paris declaration on
statistical capacity for the future. The sometimes aid effectiveness. Paris: Organisation for Economic Cooperation and
Development, 2005. http://www.oecd.org/document/18/0,2340,en_
piecemeal efforts of the past have produced statistics but 2649_3236398_35401554_1_1_1_1,00.html (accessed March 1, 2007).
not the capacity to replicate them in the future.1 To quote 20 Health Systems Trust. Health management information systems.
Kenya’s minister for planning and national development: http://www.hst.org.za/generic/89 (accessed Jan 26, 2007).
“An essential component of any development planning is 21 The Information Centre. The Information Centre for health and
social care (The IC): our services. http://www.icservices.nhs.uk/
data. Without data, a country’s efforts to plan for future servicecat/services.asp (accessed Jan 26, 2007).
growth and welfare of its people cannot be grounded in 22 United Nations Statistics Division. Millennium Development Goals
reality and therefore may be severely flawed.”1 Indicators. http://mdgs.un.org/unsd/mdg/default.aspx (accessed
Jan 26, 2007).
Conflict of interest statement 23 Ghana Ministry of Health. Appraisal of the Information,
We declare that we have no conflict of interest. Monitoring and Evaluation (IME) system for the health sector: a
report for the Annual Health Sector Review 2003. Accra: Ministry of
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