A Ray of Hope For The Asset Market: Energy - Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
September 30, 2018
Stephen Richardson A Ray of Hope for the Asset Market

212-446-5639
Flowing following the revision cycle into Energy, sustainability could lift
stephen.richardson@evercoreisi.com
Dealflow
Todd Firestone
212-446-6023 E&Ps outperformed last week as the push / pull of basin and asset preferences
todd.firestone@evercoreisi.com was overshadowed by the absolute move in commodity price. With forward
Daniel Juck strips $5/bbl+ higher (for both WTI & Brent) in 2019 than consensus, the
212-446-9468 magnitude of forward estimate revisions should not be underestimated. The
daniel.juck@evercoreisi.com rising tide is helping even the laggard ships while the market continues to
Eric Boyes grapple with fears of inland crude oversupply against waterborne strength.
212-446-9466 Interesting to us was a steady stream of HY credit transactions in what looks to
eric.boyes@evercoreisi.com be a buoyant market for those looking to term out / lower fixed charges despite
the move higher in benchmark rates. Capital inflows and credit availability got
Table of Contents us thinking about the upstream asset market and previous periods of oil price
Section Page exuberance. See within where we outline a set up that could be positive for
Model Updates 2
deal flow in general (assets, corporate M&A, and funding markets) with specific
Will a Rotation into Energy drive an Inflection in M&A? 3 benefits for the E&Ps.
The Week in Review: North American E&P 8
Ratings & Thesis 9
Equity market leading. Will asset markets follow? Energy continues to
Evercore ISI Commodity Outlook 15 attract broader investor interest against a bullish backdrop for the commodity
Crude Oil 16 and attractive valuations for equities that have yet to fully adjust to this new
NGLs 22 reality. The strengthening of pricing (Brent front month up nearly $10/bbl since
Natural Gas 24 the end of July) is stimulating equity market interest and equity strength should
STEO 28 be expected to rouse what has been a dormant asset market, in our view. To
Rig Count 29 be clear, we are not advocating for equity issuances to support accelerated
Commitments of Traders - CFTC 31
development / more drilling activity and believe here the market will (rightly so)
E&P Sector Thesis 32
EVR ISI & Cons. Estimates, Short Interest, Equity Perf 33
remain skeptical. We are suggesting a window of opportunity for those looking
Commodity Hedges 36 at portfolio moves, asset acquisitions / divestitures, and funding requirements.
Executive Compensation Snapshot 45 Previous periods of relatively easy access to capital markets have tended to
Evercore ISI E&P Events Calendar correlate with increased transactional activity while forward commodity
expectations have acted as a key driver of receptivity for both debt and equity
QEP Resources Inc. Oct 2-3
NDR in Boston with CEO Chuck Stanley, VP Finance Bill Buese
markets. While equity issuances are lower yoy (three vs. eight last year) and
& IR team
dramatically lower vs. 2016, debt markets remain open with investment grade
issues pricing <200bps and even lower quality issues pricing competitively (we
Marathon Oil Corp. Oct 4-5
remain firmly focused on CRC’s 2016 Term Loan and financing opportunities).
NDR in San Francisco and Los Angeles with EVP/CFO
The read-across for the asset market likely translates into a larger opportunity
Dane Whitehead & VP IR Guy Baber
set after what was a disappointing 1H18 (failed sales in DJ, Bakken, delays in
Apache Corporation Nov 19-20 Eagle Ford). See within for details and an updated look at deals to watch
NDR in Boston & Mid-Atlantic with CEO John Christmann
across our coverage group.
& CFO Steve Riney
We expanded our mid-cap Permian coverage last week by initiating on
MTDR. We found plenty of fans in our discussions of the company with an
established beat and raise track record (16 consecutive quarters) and data
Revision Cycle Setting Up for 2019 suggests well performance amongst the top tier in the Permian. That said,
100% $100
MTDR runs an organic growth (leasehold acquisition + drilling) model that has
80%
Net positive EBITDA revisions seen debt-adjusted share metrics lag peers and modestly higher well costs (on
a per 1000 ft lateral basis) which pressure margins / returns. While there are
60%
potential value events on the horizon (non-core asset sales, midstream
Revisions (Up-Down / # Estimates)
$80
40%
monetization), we elected to initiate at In Line ($38/shr PT) looking for a key
20%
debate or value dislocation before getting involved (see our note for details).
$/bbl
0% $60
-20% Where we stand? Robust oil prices are driving estimates higher and
-40%
valuations lower for those who can capture recent strength in waterborne and
-60%
$40
global benchmarks. Despite concerns surrounding the fate of inland crudes
-80%
(such as WTI) a rising tide is helping all boats in E&P. With little concern
Net negative EBITDA revisions surrounding service cost inflation, market focus is rightly on those E&Ps who
-100% $20
can maintain & extend capital efficient growth programs and increasingly
Nov-15
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focused on the 2019+ outlook. We like a combination of risked growth +

Net Revisions (Up-Down / # Estimates) WTI (RHS) leverage to global crude prices amongst our focus names. Top ideas include
Based on large cap coverage group (APA, APC, DVN, EOG, MRO, NBL) MRO, APC, ECA, PE, and WPX.
Please see the analyst certification and important disclosures on page 47 of this report. Evercore ISI and affiliates do and seek to do business
with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the
objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
© 2018. Evercore Group L.L.C. All rights reserved.
Model and PT Changes
Chesapeake Energy CHK priced a $1.25 Bn senior notes offering on September 26th consisting of $850 mm in 7.00% notes due 2024
CHK and $400 mm in 7.50% notes due 2026. The company intends to use net proceeds from the offering to repay its
2021 secured 8.50% term loan which had $1.233 Bn of borrowings outstanding as of the end of 2Q. We have
updated the debt schedule within our model accordingly and estimate the new debt structure will result in
annualized interest savings of ~$15 mm. We maintain our In Line rating and $6/shr PT.
2
Will a Rotation into Energy drive an Inflection in M&A?
Fund flows into energy have the potential to drive an uptick in transactional activity.
Recent flows into energy likely drive questioning of the timing of an inflection for energy
deals and a read-through for the asset market. Historically, periods following increased
capital availability have seen a rise in the number of assets transacting. Indeed, post the
most recent commodity downturn virtually the entire space recapitalized debt and equity in
some amount, with a corresponding rise in both the number of asset deals and values.
While investors in the upstream tend to assimilate deferred commodity (forward NYMEX)
in establishing share price valuations, recent rotation into energy suggests sentiment may
be shifting for longer term, non-specialist investors, particularly those names with
defendable theses (Permian transportation answers, Brent-linked pricing exposure, NGL
leverage, efficiencies control, etc.). In our view, if the broader energy spectrum
increasingly receives interest, look for the impacts to be reflected in more robust capital
markets with the asset market likely following.
Figure 1: Energy Receiving Interest from a Broader Figure 2: Equities Have Discounted Deferred Commodity
Investor Base? even as Prompt Pricing has Rallied
4%
$65 $80
3% $60 $75
2.1%
2% 1.7%
$55 $70
1.2%
1% 0.7% 0.6%
$50 $65
WTI ($/bbl)
Price ($/shr)
0%
-0.1% $45 $60
-1%
-0.8%
$40 $55
-2% -1.4%
-2.1% -2.3% $35 $50
-3% -2.5% -2.6%
-4% $30 $45
$25 $40
Jul-17
May-18
Jul-18
Oct-17
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
Jun-17
Aug-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
S&P 500 WoW Sector Performance S&P 500 MoM Sector Performance
XOP WTI (1mo) WTI (60mo) Brent (1mo)
As of 9/23/2018
Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research Source: Bloomberg LP, FactSet, Evercore ISI Research
A period of increased transactional activity likely emerges in a strengthened equity

market. While the entire industry sought to manage a new low cost operating model
following the collapse of crude prices in 2015, 2016 saw essentially a complete
recapitalization of the sector with ~$40bn of equity issued in CAL16 vs. $20bn in 2014/15
and compared to $<$5bn in YTD18 and ~$10bn in 2017. Transaction activity surged with
balance sheets able to accommodate deals. The increased transaction activity was partly
driven by the emergence of the Delaware basin as the next best L48 ‘resource’ play,
however, that was not the only driver as previous periods of increased A&D activity
tended to follow periods of strong equity capital markets.
3
Figure 3: Asset Market Activity ('Shale' Era post-2007)
20
Bull market/top of commodity cycle Period of higher commodity
18 Portfolio rationalization expectations/open capital markets
16
14
Asset Deal Value (>$100mm)
12
10
0
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
Asset Market Deal Values
Source: 1Derrick, Evercore ISI Research
Higher commodity expectations look to drive a better market for secondaries. 2018
has seen a materially lower number of public equity issuances with three deals vs. eight in
last year. Commodity expectations certainly played a role. Investors assimilated a much
more bullish forward commodity expectations last with a forward curve in contango vs.
most of 2018. Certainly, the continued rise of the near month part of the curve (Figure 6)
has the potential to impact a change in sentiment.
Figure 4: Equity Issuance Across the Space (2008-2018) Figure 5: Recent Offerings (2017 vs 2018)
$40,000 Trade Offer Offer Shares Offered % Proceeds
Ticker Date Type Price (mm) Dilution ($mm)
$35,000 BRY 7/26/2018 IPO $14.00 13.0 - $183

NAM E&P Equity Offerings ($mm)
CPE 5/25/2018 Follow-on $11.80 25.3 13% $299

$30,000
MTDR 5/15/2018 Follow-on $32.76 7.0 6% $229
$25,000
OAS 12/12/2017 Follow-on $9.55 32.0 13% $306
$20,000
CRC 11/17/2017 Follow-on $14.58 6.0 16% $87
$15,000 MTDR 10/5/2017 Follow-on $26.35 7.9 8% $209
FANG 8/10/2017 Follow-on $92.60 3.0 3% $278

$10,000
PE 2/8/2017 Follow-on $31.00 41.4 20% $1,283
$5,000
WPX 1/13/2017 Follow-on $13.35 51.7 15% $690
$0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
PE 1/11/2017 Follow-on $35.00 25.3 14% $886
YTD
JAG 1/27/2017 IPO $15.00 31.6 - $474
Source: Bloomberg LP, Evercore ISI Research Source: Bloomberg LP, Evercore ISI Research
4
Figure 6: Brent Moving to Contango in mid-2017 Figure 7: Near-term Brent Moving Higher
$60 $80
$55 $75
Brent $/bbl
Brent $/bbl
$50 $70
$45 $65
$40 $60
Jun-17 Dec-17 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 Dec-19 Jun-20 Dec-20 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 Oct-20
6/27/2017 -1 Month -2 Months -3 Months 9/21/2018 -1 mo -2 mo -3 mo
Debt markets remain receptive as with continued interest new issuances. Credit
markets have shown resiliency post the commodity downturn relative to major disruptions
to the market in 1Q16 where all paper (not just high yield) traded at highly elevated
spreads. January 2016 saw spreads increase from ~200-300 bps to over 2000 bps within
a period of days. Shown below in Figure 8, as crude reached $30/bbl, spreads began to
explode, similar to the period of the 2008/09 Financial Crisis. Spreads returned to
relatively normal levels (faster than commodity recovered) later in 1Q16, similar to recent
issues. Recent investment grade issues have seen pricing <200 bps with lower quality
offerings still under 500 bps.
Figure 8: High Yield Energy Pricing has Remained Closer Figure 9: Recent Upstream Debt Issuances (investment
to Longer term Averages post the Commodity Downturn grade highlighted)
Duration Proceeds S&P
22.00 $0
Date Ticker Coupon Maturity (yrs) Spread ($MM) Rating
20.00 $15
9/26/2018 AREX 7.000 11/1/2026 8 405 600 NR
9/25/2018 CHK 7.500 10/1/2026 8 441 400 B
ICE BAML US HY Energy YTM (%)
18.00 $30
9/25/2018 CHK 7.000 10/1/2024 6 396 850 B
8/14/2018 APA 4.375 10/15/2028 10 150 1,000 BBB
WTI $/bbl (Inverted)
16.00 $45
8/7/2018 MTDR 5.875 9/15/2026 8 292 750 B+

14.00 $60
8/6/2018 SM 6.625 1/15/2027 8 370 500 BB-
12.00 $75 6/14/2018 CXO 4.300 8/15/2028 10 140 1,000 BBB-
10.00 $90 5/18/2018 EPE 7.750 5/15/2026 7 469 1,000 NR

5/9/2018 WPX 5.750 6/1/2026 8 276 500 BB-
8.00 $105
4/30/2018 OAS 6.250 5/1/2026 8 331 400 B+
6.00 $120 4/25/2018 JAG 5.875 5/1/2026 8 287 500 B
2/28/2018 OXY 4.200 3/15/2048 30 110 1,000 A
4.00 $135
2/7/2018 SN 7.250 2/15/2023 5 495 500 B
2.00 $150
2/2/2018 BRY 7.000 2/15/2026 8 417 400 B
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18
1/18/2018 XOG 5.625 2/1/2026 8 304 750 B
ICE BAML US HY Energy (LHS) WTI (RHS)
Anticipating a change in the asset market… A number of lower quality deals remain
outstanding in the marketplace (lower working/revenue interest, lower quality
rock/disadvantaged lease position, etc…). We would highlight mineral interest deals have
shown relatively more interest and more closed transactions over the previous 12 months
(as mineral prices in across all resource plays have risen driven by the number of sponsor
backed teams in the market and deals in anticipated future development areas. While the
supply of higher quality sale packages may be lacking in the marketplace, stronger equity
capital markets likely enable relatively lower quality producers to transact. Our asset
market basin highlights include:
5
Permian: Likely to see more mineral interest packages with an opportunity for larger
holders to consolidate positions. Packages with midstream solutions likely receive a
premium. There are few ‘franchise’ assets remaining and those deals left will likely
continue with the recent past of smaller bolt-on/lateral extension transactions that remain
strategic for the acquirer.
Williston: With better pricing (and transportation relative to the Permian) we expect
higher profile/quality deals to transact in the Bakken over the next 6-12 months. While
recent marketed deals have failed to close, we see the basin being viewed more positively
as advantaged pricing/quality of product begins to be viewed more positively. Investors
are also looking to whether sponsor-backed privates in the basin acquire to grow or sell.
Anadarko: We see relatively little left of size to transact with the core of the basin spoken
for. Incremental deal activity likely occurs in the MERGE play.
EagleFord: Potential to see incrementally more deals coming to market with the potential
for more non-operated assets testing the market as well as packages currently marketed
(MTDR, APA/E.Texas, and PVAC). Several deals highlighted 2018 YTD, the BHP sale
(successful sale to BP) and PXD’s position (partner’s sale).
DJ: We see generally lower deal activity in the basin driven by relatively consolidated
ownership, combined with continued election cycle headwinds and Cushing-linked pricing.
Assets which generally were expected to transact, but haven’t (we would note
WLL/Redtail asset) may see increased interest in a stronger commodity/capital markets
environment.
Figure 10: Anticipated Deals (EVR ISI Coverage)

Seller Asset Net Acres Comments
NFX
Arkoma production guided at just under ~80 mmcfpd in 2018, down slightly y/y. $3k/flowing implies ~$250-$300mm incl. some
Arkoma Unk
limited undeveloped value.
QEP
Retained Haynesville gathering system on QEPM separation from E&P entity (as volumes were declining). We believe ~$7mm
Midstream N/A in EBITDA in Haynesville in 2016 but likely growing to ~$30-35mm by 2019 with QEP’s re-frac program. Including estimated
Permian midstream EBITDA, we would peg midstream EBITDA at ~$70mm in 2019. ~$500-$800mm at ~8-10x est. EBITDA.
Produces 10 mboe/d on ~65-70k net acres; we would note the apparent ‘disconnect’ between private and public market
Bakken Fort Berthold ~65,000
valuations for PDPs versus PUDs as evidenced by HK and WLL Bakken asset sales. ~$500mm at $50k/flowing boe.
Produces ~40 mboe/d on ~30k net acres; generally regarded as advantaged development economics versus Ft Berthold
Bakken South Antelope ~30,900
position in part due to timing / permitting issues on reservation acreage, but some debate surrounding inventory depth.
CLR
Merge assets located in the south central Oklahoma and currently producing minimal amount (50 boe/d) with 85% WI. The deal
Non-core ~25,000
could potentially be valued at more than $325 mm (~ $13K/acre).
PXD
Announced plans to divest Eagle Ford and other non-core assets producing in aggregate ~50 mboed at 4Q17 results, including
PXD's interest in the S TX Eagle Ford (~27 mboed in 4Q17, ~30% oil) plus acreage in Sinor Nest Wilcox field. PXD also plans
Eagle Ford, other non-core Unk to divest West Panhandle asset. After selling 10,200 net acres on March 27th, 2018, PXD's acreage position in the Eagle Ford
Shale will be approximately 59,000 net acres, all of which is held by production. As previously announced, the remaining Eagle
Ford Shale acreage position is also being divested.
OAS
OAS sold ~4.4 mboepd of net production and ~65k net acres of non-core assets in the Williston Basin for $283 mm across two
separate agreements. The sold assets include the company's Foreman Butte position and certain non-operated acreage
Bakken non-core Unk
positions. OAS originally targeted $500 mm in proceeds and will continue to evaluate additional non-core properties for potential
divestment as it optimizes its portfolio. The company anticipates to sell non core assets only (with no or limited PDP volumes).
CXO
Following the RSPP acquisition, CEO Tim Leach indicated that he expects active portfolio management in the period following
Post RSPP clean-up Unk the deal with 2 assets for sale. Firstly, CXO has begun marketing 3,800 net (10,900 gross) acres in its Halff East area in Upton
Cty with 800 boed flowing. Secondly, the Big Chief area in the Southern Delaware Basin is another possibility for divestiture.
DVN
While discussions surrounding a possible large scale basin were hinted at by DVN more recently, company's Canadian asset
Canada N/A (Jackfish, Pike and Bonnyville)seems to remain in focus of these talks despite the recent ENLK sale. If achieved , we see a
~$5 Bn deal potential on the table.
In May during one of the industry conferences, DVN indicated that they are looking for a potential buyer for their non-core / non
Barnett (Western Wise) ~100,000
contiguous part of the Delaware asset. DVN expects the transaction amount to be in the $900 - $1,000 mm range.
Central basin platform Unk Data rooms are expected to open in 4Q18
Covers ~39,000 net leasehold acres (100% HBP) and ~27,000 net mineral acres, across ~120,000 gross acre with net
Midland CO2 ~39,000
Production during April 8.2 MBOE/d (84% oil, 13% NGL, 3% gas).
Rockies CO2 ~30,200 Combined net production of 4,013 boe/d as of August 1, 2018 (81% oil) from 134 active producers and 4,000 producing wells
FANG
Following the EGN acquisition, FANG alluded to possibly divesting Central basin platform / Howard Cty non core assets
Post EGN clean-up Unk
currently in EGN's portfolio. Currently in our models, we are seeing a potential ~ $880mm valuation of these assets.
MTDR
On Sept 12, 2018, after announcing the BLM auction acquisition, MTDR alluded to the fact that it may finance these
Non Delaware Basin assets Unk
transactions with the divestiture of portions or all of its non-Delaware basin assets (Eagle Ford & Haynesville basin).
Source: 1Derrick, Company Data, Evercore ISI Research
6
Less challenged corporate valuations tend to act as a double edged sword with
shares less powerful as acquisition currency but more attractive to qualified
acquirers. Periods of lower valuations have tended to correspond with relatively more
corporate deals. Below we show historical forward multiples and corporate deal counts.
We would note the period of the commodity bull market (2011-2014) showed relatively
less challenged valuations and relatively higher deal counts, similar to 2H17. Certainly,
other factors contribute to factors driving corporate transactions with less challenged
valuations tend to lead to more lucrative consolidation of smaller pure play E&P’s in our
view where synergistic assets can be acquired at more palatable valuations.
Figure 11: Corporate Deal Count & Forward Multiples

7 Periods of lower valuations tend to lead to 12.0x
more corporate deals transacting
6 11.0x
Corporate Deal Count (>$100mm)
10.0x
5
9.0x
4
8.0x
3
7.0x
2
6.0x
1 5.0x
0 4.0x
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
4Q07
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
1Q10
2Q10
3Q10
4Q10
1Q11
2Q11
3Q11
4Q11
1Q12
2Q12
3Q12
4Q12
1Q13
2Q13
3Q13
4Q13
1Q14
2Q14
3Q14
4Q14
1Q15
2Q15
3Q15
4Q15
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2Q17
3Q17
4Q17
1Q18
2Q18
3Q18
Corporate Deal Count Forward EV/EBITDA E&P Universe
Source: 1Derrick, FactSet, Evercore ISI Research
7
This Week in Review: North American E&P
Figure 12: E&P Coverage Performance (WoW) PE (Outperform): announced the appointment of David
CRC, 22.6%
Dell’Osso as Executive VP – COO. Dell’Osso will succeed
BRY, 10.1%
Matt Gallagher, the current President of PE and previously
CLR, 9.7% announced President and CEO. Dell’Osso will be responsible
WLL, 9.5% for company-wide development, production and engineering
OAS, 9.3% functions. Prior to joining the company and for the past 13
WPX, 9.1% years, Dell’Osso worked at SWN where he served in a variety
CXO, 6.9% of functions with growing responsibility in E&P, midstream and
EOG, 6.8% commercial teams.
MRO, 6.5%
EGN, 5.4% CPE (In Line): entered into a second amendment of its
FANG, 5.2% revolving credit facility increasing the borrowing base from
APC, 4.3% $825 mm to $1.1 Bn and increasing aggregate elected
WTI, 3.8% commitments from $650 mm to $850 mm. As of June 30th
APA, 3.7%
there were no outstanding borrowings on the credit facility.
ECA, 3.6%
NBL, 2.4% RDS.A (Terreson – Outperform): The press reported that the
QEP, 2.1% company is set to announce a positive decision on its $31 Bn
CPE, 2.0% LNG plant in BC, Canada, as early as next week. LNG
CNQ, 1.9% Canada which is backed by RDS.A, KOGAS, MSBHF, PTR
XOP, 1.9%
and Petronas can become the largest Canadian infrastructure
MTDR, 1.6%
project, and the largest LNG terminal in years, if approved and
PE, 1.6%
will be able to export ~ 26 mm tons of LNG, mostly to Asia.
CHK, 1.1%
PXD, 1.0%
RDS.A has mentioned in their last appearance that a decision
NGAS, 0.8%
on the project will be issued by YE2018, whereas BC has set a
XEC, 0.6% Nov. 30 deadline for a final decision if the project is to claim as
SP50, -0.5% much as C$6 billion in tax breaks and savings.
JAG, -0.6%
NFX, -0.7%
CVX (Terreson - Outperform): The press reported CVX has
XNG, -0.9%
received an expression of interest from a potential buyer for its
SU, -0.9%
interest in Rosebank development in the North Sea (operating
DVN, -1.5% 40% CVX, 40% SU and 20% Siccar Point Energy with silent
RRC, -2.9% interests). Rosebank field, located 80 miles northwest of
COG, -3.0% Shetland Islands in WD of ~3,600 ft, is progressing towards
AR, -7.2% development and is expected to contain more than 300
EQT, -8.3% Mmboe of potential recoverable resources. If FIDed in 2019,
SWN, -11.1% first production could be seen in 2024, rising to 100 mboe/d at
-20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% peak production. CVX is in process to reduce its European
Source: FactSet, Evercore ISI Research portfolio and more recently has announced the sale of its
Danish Upstream business to TOT.
Weekly E&P Performance: XOP increased 1.9% last week TOT (N/R): announced a major gas discovery on the
while the S&P 500 decreased 0.5%. Year-to-date XOP Glendronach prospect located offshore U.K. West of Shetland
performance continues to outpace the S&P 500 (+16.4% vs Islands. The well was drilled to a final depth of 4,312 meters
+9.0%). WTI finished higher 3.8% this week as OPEC’s and encountered a gas column of 42 meters of net pay in
decision not to add incremental supply to the market last quality reservoir. Preliminary tests confirm good reservoir
weekend, several pointers leading to believe that some quality, permeability and well production deliverability, with
OPEC members are running at all-time highs and declining recoverable resources estimated at about one trillion cubic feet
Iranian exports let the commodity market into the bull (1 tcf).
territory. The DOE reported US crude oil inventories CVE.CN (N/R): has entered into several 3 years agreements
increased by 1.85 mm barrels (vs -1.1 mm consensus) while with major rail companies to move ~100 mbpd of crude by rail
US gasoline inventories increased 1.53 mm barrels (vs +0.35 to various destinations in the USGC. These agreements
consensus). US crude exports increased to 2,640 mmbpd involve moving heavy crude with CN from CVE’s Bruderheim
last week, up 273 mbpd w/w. The BH US oil rig count Energy Terminal starting in 4Q18 and with CP through USD
decreased 3 rig last week to 863 and currently stands up 113 Partners’ terminal in Hardisty, AB, in 2Q19, both ramping
rigs yoy. Natural gas prices surged 0.8% higher this week to through 2019. The company expects all in costs to transport oil
highs not seen since Jan, starting off strong on forecasts for a from AB to the GoM coast in the mid to high teens, as per its
cold Oct elevating heating demand. EIA reported a working previous estimates. CVE continues to have further
gas storage build of +46 Bcf, slightly below consensus (+61 conversations with transportation companies to move
Bcf) and below the 5yr average build (+81 Bcf). E&P stocks additional volumes by rail if the terms are favourable.
within our coverage universe ended the week 2.8% higher on
average.
8
Ratings & Investment Thesis
Figure 13: Outperform Rated Coverage
Outperform Rated Stocks
Large Caps Ticker Rating Target Price Δ% to Price Target Investment Thesis
A shift to a more shareholder friendly approach to capital management was notable in 2H17, completing $3 Bn in buybacks YTD and maintaining a flat-$50/bbl (WTI + Brent) spending
Anadarko Petroleum APC Outperform $78 balance (incl. midstream). While leverage to advantaged priced barrels in the N-T is a tailwind, Permian infrastructure adds should support a 2H beat and raise cycle that differentiates
relative to a peer group likely to be moderating growth expectations.
With a more concentrated asset position than ever before, the promise at DVN is one of efficiencies as the Delaware and Anadarko basin programs hit their stride in 2018.
Management is saying the right things about adopting a more value (vs. volume) conscious approach to operations and the market will be looking for follow through. Portfolio change
Devon Energy DVN Outperform $50
worth watching as DVN pursues non-core asset divestitures ( ~$5Bn target by year end, $4.4 Bn YTD, with a $4 Bn buyback + debt reduction announced) with questions concerning
the role of certain assets (Eagle Ford, Canada) in the portfolio.
Best in class upstream operator now focused on moving an expanded Permian core (Delaware basin) to development. A big hill to climb in 2H18 as EOG has adopted a view that value
EOG Resources Inc. EOG Outperform $136 maximization (and higher ROCE) can be secured via the drill-bit. While free cash flow is directed towards the balance sheet + dividend growth, we wonder if a slower growth / higher
TSR value proposition is not on the horizon.
MRO remains one of the most levered E&Ps to higher commodity prices, and management executed by cutting costs, and executing on large-scale portfolio changes (Canada exit,
Marathon Oil Corp. MRO Outperform $24 Permian acquisitions). While execution has been top tier, expect management to continue to evaluate buy vs. build (2018 has seen a more greenfield exploration focus) in order to
replenish / extend resource life.
The next leg of significant volume + margin growth from major projects is at hand with Leviathan (40% WI, late-19 startup) in the eastern Med, offering a 2020+ free cash flow story.
Noble Energy NBL Outperform $42 The challenge nearer term is Permian growth in 2018 offset by declines elsewhere. Debt reduction and share buybacks (a 3 year, $750 mm buyback announced) are expected use of
proceeds from asset sales + free cash over plan horizon.
Mid-Caps Ticker Rating Target Price Δ% to Price Target Investment Thesis
Our view of value is driven by a discrete asset (California conventional) where resource certainty and a re-set cost structure offer visibility in regards to future cash flows. Free cash will
Berry Petroleum BRY Outperform $18 be a function of commodity price (Brent linkage) and modest (read achievable) near-term volume growth expectations. With low financial gearing and free cash, the opportunity here is
to build a unique yield + growth play with leverage to improving global crude dynamics. Follow through and defining a prudent path to increase liquidity over time will be key.
The XEC story has lost its way with an investor base that traditionally deferred to a sound approach to capital allocation and prudent capitalization. 2018 has seen capital efficiency
Cimarex Energy XEC Outperform $115 disappoint and the oil growth trajectory shift to later in the year before confirmed. Further, the stock has become the epicenter of fears surrounding NG bottlenecks in the Delaware
basin despite efforts to secure firm sales agreements and hedge local basis.
Best expression of oil leverage in the equity market. Low costs and execution on the development plan has seen leverage concerns recede and the benefits of higher oil price drop to
Continental Resources CLR Outperform $67 the bottom line at CLR. Clarity on the use of free cash (de-leveraging the balance sheet) and confidence in execution means the market's willingness to pay has outstripped our
NAV/SOTP framework. Expect the discount to NAV here to remain narrow.
CRC is a balance workout story where debt reduction (both absolute level & cost) will drive equity value moving forward. A low decline, free cash generative, Brent levered asset base is
California Resources CRC Outperform $55 the underlying. The business has been resized in the downcycle and management has taken a pragmatic and equity friendly approach to loosening the constraints of the balance
sheet. Higher commodity price, prudent portfolio moves, and potential further JVs are all levers to support equity accretion.
We view the acquisition of RSPP as transformative on a multi-year view. Marrying CXO's prudent stewardship of shareholder capital and track record of value creation with what we
Concho Resources CXO Outperform $180 view as one of the best assets in North America (RSPP's N. Delaware) should differentiate. The stock will need to clear deal uncertainty and related noise by early 3Q and we expect
more clarity on forward development plan, potential portfolio pruning, and better clarity on 2019+ exposed to in basin crude pricing that has the market concerned.
An early 2018 upgrade as we saw an opportunity to play relative value as the market wanted for 'what's next' after 2+ years of execution to plan (margin uplift, cash flow growth). ECA
Encana Corporation ECA Outperform $16 is adopting a 'big company' approach to resource development and the Permian (top-tier midstream / downstream solutions) and Montney (staged condensate growth with visibility
through 2021) constitute the core.
EQT is working through the separation process, and despite the complexity of the contemplated transactions we remain of the view that EQT represents a unique TSR story in E&P
EQT Corp. EQT Outperform $60
(FCF and growth mix) underpinned by relative scale and competitive cost structure versus Appalachian peers.
Look for the focus to shift from in basin pricing exposure + forward volume growth to the integration of the announced transaction with EGN. FANG has made a host of promises in
Diamondback Energy FANG Outperform $138 regards to deal efficiencies and beyond a 4Q18 close the market will look for follow through on drilling & complete costs, but also tangible evidence that FANG is extracting value from
the go forward entity. Still one of the best managed operators in the upstream with a keen understanding of the buy vs. drill trade off.
Management transition and operational missteps (scaling up the business) is in the rearview. Ahead, JAG is building the organization required to execute within the core areas and
Jagged Peak Energy JAG Outperform $16 determining the right development plan in Big Tex (Pecos) will be a determinant of value in 2018+. We see valuation downside insulated by acreage value in the core (Whiskey River /
Cochise).
Low cost NG producer with the transportation challenges of Northeast PA well understood by the market. Recent regulatory approvals and steady progress sourcing in-basin demand
Cabot Oil & Gas Corp COG Outperform $30 provide confidence on the growth outlook (2.0 bcf/d of incremental capacity expected excluding Constitution). The next catalyst will likely be clarity on the use of free cash and post-
Atlantic Sunrise ISD (mid-year) proving out the durability of price certainty / contracts for the market.
Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research
9
Figure 14: In Line Rated Coverage
In Line Rated Stocks
Large Caps Ticker Rating Target Price Δ% to Price Target Investment Thesis
The investment view continues to hinge on Alpine High. Rewarded through the downcycle as one of the only E&Ps under coverage with no equity dilution and maintaining dividend,
Apache Corp. APA In Line $50 focus has shifted to scaling and de-risking Alpine High (both at the field level and in the equity), particularly with respect to assimilating value of Altus (APA 71% stake) in the
consolidated entity. Brent levered free-cash generative assets in the International support exposure to an improving commodity backdrop.
Mid-Caps Ticker Rating Target Price Δ% to Price Target Investment Thesis

Appalachia Basin incumbent with multi-year visibility on production and cash flow, with a ~$1+ Bn hedge book insulating the funding outlook. Upside from liquids portfolio is supported
Antero Resources AR In Line $22 by improving capital efficiency (long laterals / enhanced completions). We prefer more direct exposure to Appalachia pricing (AR long firm transport in 2018/19) while we suspect the
market continues to struggle with the SOTP at AR and which part of the structure offers the most attractive value proposition (AR vs. AM vs. AMGP).
CHK continues to chip away at absolute debt levels and the transition to a higher margin commodity mix. The question is if CHK can generate enough flexibility to transition 'from
Chesapeake Energy CHK In Line $6
defense to offense.' Notwithstanding efforts by management, the forward margin and growth profile remains mid-tier within the group.
Making its case amongst the mid-sized Permian pure plays. CPE has put the operational challenges of 2017 behind and now stepping up as a consolidator in core areas. Underlying
Callon Petroleum CPE In Line $14
acreage value and the margin outlook should insulate the downside.
Energen Corporation EGN In Line $72 EGN announced a merger agreement with FANG, in an all stock transaction. We expect transaction close in 4Q18. Our FANG estimates reflect combined FANG/EGN.
MTDR has amassed an attractive northern Delaware Basin asset base with top tier well performance and a history of consistent execution. Higher well costs (normalized for lateral
Matador Resources MTDR In Line $38 length) relative to peers and shorter laterals challenge margins and debt-adjusted per share metrics have lagged peers. Potential non-core asset sales and midstream monetization are
value events on the horizon.
We believe the market has increasingly acknowledged the value and potential in the Anadarko basin, and 2018 will be important for results from downspacing pilots and ability to meet
Newfield Exploration Co. NFX In Line $38
and / or exceed STACK targets. The debate centers on the achievability of 2019 oil targets and the transition to a more predictable trajectory from the Anadarko basin.
OAS continues to deliver operationally against an improved commodity and Bakken takeaway backdrop. Minor divestitures and higher commodity price have helped the de-leveraging
plan and balance sheet repair is no longer a focus for the stock. Completion enhancements have bettered the Bakken cost curve and measured development in the Delaware now
Oasis Petroleum Corp. OAS In Line $16
looks prudent in hindsight given basin takeaway concerns. OMP buildout remains a tailwind supporting differentials, attracting 3rd party revenues, and with potential for an accelerated
drop down in late 2018.
Transitioning to a pure play Permian producer, the value of the non-core will remain a swing on NAV (and potential for de-leveraging). In the Permian we see a good ~40k net acre core
QEP Resources QEP In Line $12
position of the Midland and the early adoption of multi-well pad development ahead of peers setting up the pure play transition.
Dominant Marcellus leaseholder with a track record of delivery. Market concerns over the asset quality of the N Louisiana assets, financial leverage, and a challenged margin outlook
Range Resources RRC In Line $22
for Appalachia have all weighed on the stock.
SWN has addressed looming midstream liabilities and leverage concerns while continuing to expand operations in SW Marcellus. With the Fayetteville deal announced, focus now
Southwestern Energy SWN In Line $6 shifts to the extent sale proceeds will accelerate delevering and how much capex will be required to meet 2020 growth targets. Our expectation is for measured growth in 2H18 as the
company spends within cash flow and grows into midstream commitments in SW PA to support margins.
Significant debt reduction through equitization and divestitures have set a foundation for a return to growth from the Bakken. While the DJ exit has been indefinitely postponed, we
Whiting Petroleum WLL In Line $50 would not be surprised to see additional bolt-ons within core areas of the Bakken. YTD performance has been a catch up and the market's thirst for unencumbered crude leverage in
the equity market.
Canadian Senior (C$)Ticker Rating Target Price Δ% to Price Target Investment Thesis
CNQ has established a track record as one of the most disciplined and prudent capital allocators in the global upstream. Growth via organic project development and major
acquisitions (a prime mover in the consolidation of the oil sands) the business has maintained these values while scaling up to 1+ mmboe/d of current production. We see downside
Canadian Natural Resources
CNQ-TSE In Line $50
well insulated by a ~10% free cash flow yield on our 2019e, and 3% dividend yield. While the 'wall' of free cash is on the horizon (~10% FCFY over the next 3 years on EVR ISI deck),
we lack conviction on what (beyond valuation) drives the next leg of relative performance.
10
E&P Comparables
Figure 15: Trading Comparables - EVR ISI Deck
9/28/2018 52-week % Below EV/DACF EV / EBITDA Production Growth
Ticker Price Rating PT high (%) PT Market CapAdj TEV Div Yld 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Large Cap
Apache Corporation APA $47.67 In Line $50 $49.59 5% 18,353 27,073 2.1% 8.1x 7.3x 6.7x 7.0x 6.8x 6.1x 3.0% 12.2% 11.1%
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation APC $67.41 Outperform $78 $76.70 16% 34,042 39,242 1.5% 7.1x 5.3x 5.1x 6.2x 5.8x 5.4x -1.2% 9.9% 10.5%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $39.94 Outperform $50 $46.54 25% 15,415 19,970 0.8% 8.3x 6.1x 5.0x 7.1x 5.8x 4.6x -2.6% 3.5% 9.4%
EOG Resources, Inc. EOG $127.57 Outperform $136 $131.60 7% 73,849 79,275 0.6% 9.9x 8.7x 7.2x 9.7x 8.3x 6.8x 17.8% 15.9% 13.0%
Marathon Oil Corporation MRO $23.28 Outperform $24 $23.67 3% 19,621 23,454 0.9% 7.8x 6.6x 5.9x 7.0x 6.4x 5.8x 7.0% 5.9% 5.8%
Noble Energy, Inc. NBL $31.19 Outperform $42 $37.76 35% 15,096 19,715 1.4% 8.4x 6.9x 5.1x 7.8x 6.6x 4.6x -7.8% 7.8% 29.7%
Average 8.3x 6.8x 5.8x 7.5x 6.6x 5.5x
Permian
Callon Petroleum Company CPE $11.99 In Line $14 $14.65 17% 2,732 3,781 0.0% 9.3x 6.6x 4.8x 9.5x 6.6x 4.9x 41.3% 40.0% 26.0%
Concho Resources Inc. CXO $152.75 Outperform $180 $163.11 18% 30,348 32,663 0.0% 13.0x 8.1x 5.5x 13.1x 8.2x 5.7x 36.4% 36.7% 24.5%
Energen Corporation EGN $86.17 In Line $72 $87.88 -16% 8,396 9,224 0.0% 9.6x 6.6x 4.7x 10.0x 6.7x 4.8x 32.2% 26.4% 28.3%
Diamondback Energy, Inc. FANG $135.19 Outperform $138 $138.25 2% 22,195 22,780 0.3% 14.6x 7.3x 5.0x 17.4x 7.5x 5.2x 72.5% 106.1% 27.0%
Jagged Peak Energy, Inc. JAG $13.83 Outperform $16 $16.55 16% 2,946 3,312 0.0% 8.2x 6.3x 4.7x 8.2x 6.2x 4.6x 97.3% 30.8% 27.9%
Matador Resources Company MTDR $33.05 In Line $38 $35.22 15% 3,847 3,957 0.0% 8.4x 6.6x 5.4x 8.8x 6.5x 5.3x 31.1% 14.2% 18.0%
Parsley Energy, Inc. Class A PE $29.25 Outperform $36 $33.43 23% 9,272 11,250 0.0% 9.1x 6.6x 5.0x 8.9x 6.8x 5.2x 60.8% 30.3% 27.5%
Pioneer Natural Resources Company PXD $174.19 Outperform $250 $213.40 44% 29,786 31,025 0.2% 9.5x 7.6x 6.9x 9.8x 7.5x 6.5x 15.6% 2.8% 11.8%
Cimarex Energy Co. XEC $92.94 Outperform $115 $130.16 24% 8,869 9,946 0.6% 6.7x 5.7x 4.6x 6.5x 5.6x 4.5x 13.9% 12.4% 13.4%
Average 9.8x 6.8x 5.2x 10.3x 6.9x 5.2x
Natural Gas
Antero Resources Corporation AR $17.71 In Line $22 $22.69 24% 5,614 5,832 0.0% 4.7x 4.2x 3.0x 5.1x 4.3x 3.0x 17.7% 24.7% 18.3%
Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation COG $22.52 Outperform $30 $29.57 33% 10,204 10,988 1.1% 8.3x 5.8x 5.0x 9.5x 5.7x 4.6x 10.6% 35.9% 15.1%
EQT Corporation EQT $44.23 Outperform $60 $66.03 36% 11,716 10,100 0.3% 4.2x 3.8x 3.3x 4.0x 3.4x 3.0x 68.5% 13.0% 9.2%
Range Resources Corporation RRC $16.99 In Line $22 $20.65 29% 4,178 8,487 0.5% 6.9x 5.9x 4.8x 7.1x 5.9x 4.8x 10.3% 9.8% 11.8%
Southwestern Energy Company SWN $5.11 In Line $6 $6.72 17% 2,890 5,123 0.0% 4.4x 4.9x 5.3x 4.8x 4.0x 4.3x 6.2% -17.6% 14.6%
Average 5.7x 5.2x 4.5x 6.6x 5.0x 4.2x
Diversified Mid Cap E&P
Berry Petroleum Corporation BRY $17.62 Outperform $18 $17.64 2% 1,433 1,887 2.8% 16.3x 5.4x 5.3x 6.0x 4.5x 4.5x 4.8% 19.1% 11.7%
Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK $4.49 In Line $6 $5.60 34% 4,081 15,166 0.0% 5.4x 5.8x 5.5x 5.1x 5.8x 5.5x -7.1% -14.3% 3.0%
Continental Resources, Inc. CLR $68.28 Outperform $67 $69.91 -2% 25,676 31,713 0.0% 8.8x 7.2x 5.9x 8.7x 7.1x 5.8x 22.1% 17.6% 16.1%
California Resources Corp CRC $48.53 Outperform $55 $49.36 13% 2,347 8,259 0.0% 13.6x 8.4x 9.3x 8.4x 7.7x 8.5x 2.5% 5.5% 3.0%
Encana Corporation ECA $13.11 Outperform $16 $14.31 22% 12,586 16,448 0.5% 6.6x 5.5x 4.5x 6.2x 4.8x 4.1x 16.3% 22.8% 7.3%
Newfield Exploration Company NFX $28.83 In Line $38 $35.20 32% 5,795 7,991 0.0% 4.5x 3.6x 2.9x 4.9x 3.6x 2.9x 22.9% 15.2% 12.4%
Oasis Petroleum Inc. OAS $14.18 In Line $16 $14.33 13% 4,439 6,850 0.0% 5.8x 5.2x 4.6x 6.5x 5.2x 4.6x 26.5% 19.7% 15.1%
QEP Resources QEP $11.32 In Line $12 $13.77 6% 2,683 4,876 0.0% 6.1x 4.4x 3.1x 3.8x 4.3x 3.1x -3.7% 0.0% 8.8%
Whiting Petroleum Corporation WLL $53.04 In Line $50 $56.47 -6% 4,881 7,642 0.0% 5.6x 4.7x 4.1x 5.4x 5.0x 4.4x 9.7% 5.9% 4.1%
WPX Energy, Inc. Class A WPX $20.12 Outperform $26 $20.37 29% 8,446 10,646 0.0% 9.2x 6.3x 5.2x 9.3x 6.2x 5.1x 13.8% 31.1% 15.8%
Average 8.2x 5.7x 5.0x 6.4x 5.4x 4.8x
Canadian Senior C$
Suncor Energy Inc. SU-TSE $49.98 Outperform $58 $55.47 16% 82,017 98,180 2.9% 11.5x 7.5x 6.8x 7.4x 6.1x 5.6x 7.5% 12.5% 1.3%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ-TSE $42.20 In Line $50 $49.08 18% 52,012 73,227 3.0% 8.5x 7.3x 5.9x 6.9x 5.9x 4.9x 14.6% 6.2% 6.5%
Average 10.2x 7.6x 5.9x 9.0x 6.5x 5.4x
EVR ISI E&P Assumptions 2016A 2017A 2018 2019 2020+

WTI Crude ($/bbl) $43.33 $50.81 $61.00 $66.00 $65.00
Brent Crude ($/bbl) $44.38 $54.33 $65.00 $70.00 $65.00
Henry Hub Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) $2.46 $3.11 $2.96 $3.00 $3.00
Adjustments
-Enterprise values include cash benefit of hedge book (PV @ 10%); EBITDAX and DACF estimates exclude hedges; multiples based on forward EV (PF balance sheets)
-APA: EV adj for non-controlling Egypt interest and EBITDAX and DACF net of estimated non-controlling Egypt interest
-APC: EV adj for WGP and APC-owned midstream asset market implied value (20% tax effected); EBITDAX, DACF adj for midstream contribution (pure E&P valuation)
-NBL: EV adj for NBLX, CONE and TMRP.IL market implied value (20% tax effected); EBITDAX, DACF adj for midstream contribution
-FANG: EV adjusted for market implied value of VNOM ownership; EBITDAX, DACF adj as per midstream contribution;
-PE: EV disregards minority interest, which accounts for B class shares which we include in F.D. share count
-AR: EV adj for AM market implied value (10% tax effected); EBITDAX, DACF adj for AM gathering and compression EBITDA
-EQT: EV adj for EQGP and EQM market implied value and anticipated MVP debt (10% tax/liquidity affected); EBITDAX, DACF adj for midstream cash flow contribution.
-OAS: EV adj for OMP implied value; EBITDAX, DACF adj for midstream contribution
11
Figure 16: Operating Comparables - EVR ISI Deck
9/28/2018
Gas Hedged
Capitalization (2Q18) Prod. Stream (FY17) Reserves (YE17) Enterprise Value Per Crude Hedged Prod. Prod.
Ticker Price Rating PT ND/Cap ND/NTM EBITDA ND/PDP Oil NGLs Gas MBOE % PUDs R/P Adj. BOE BOE BOE/D 2016 2017 2018 2019 2016 2017 2018 2019
Large Cap
Matador Resources Company MTDR $47.67 In Line $50 21% 0.9x $6.27 55% 0% 45% 153 52% 10.8x $183.95 $177.21 $682.37 0% 55% 47% 18% 0% 60% 33% 0%
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation APC $67.41 Outperform $78 55% 1.7x $12.40 53% 15% 33% 1,497 18% 6.1x $30.34 $26.20 $54.14 26% 26% 50% 0% 8% 59% 49% 0%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $39.94 Outperform $50 50% 3.1x $5.42 45% 18% 37% 2,218 6% 11.2x $11.34 $9.01 $35.27 23% 59% 64% 41% 21% 56% 52% 38%
EOG Resources, Inc. EOG $127.57 Outperform $136 23% 0.7x $3.98 55% 15% 30% 2,529 35% 11.4x $36.70 $31.35 $130.44 9% 5% 34% 0% 0% 6% 1% 0%
Marathon Oil Corporation MRO $23.28 Outperform $24 22% 1.3x $4.24 50% 14% 35% 1,475 39% 10.2x $21.83 $15.90 $62.13 34% 67% 59% 26% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Noble Energy, Inc. NBL $31.19 Outperform $42 39% 2.5x $7.04 34% 17% 49% 1,966 54% 14.1x $14.00 $10.03 $53.51 37% 38% 71% 37% 3% 15% 13% 0%
Average
Permian
Callon Petroleum Company CPE $11.99 In Line $14 15% 1.0x $7.41 78% 0% 22% 137 42% 16.4x $32.58 $27.61 $148.12 26% 71% 72% 43% 14% 37% 38% 9%
Concho Resources Inc. CXO $152.75 Outperform $180 19% 0.7x $3.94 62% 0% 38% 828 25% 11.8x $42.61 $39.43 $171.56 69% 82% 83% 49% 23% 39% 36% 11%
Energen Corporation EGN $86.17 In Line $72 19% 0.7x $3.26 61% 19% 20% 444 41% 16.0x $25.45 $20.77 $120.73 57% 63% 56% 47% 25% 54% 20% 0%
Diamondback Energy, Inc. FANG $135.19 Outperform $138 28% 1.0x $11.49 74% 14% 12% 335 42% 11.6x $71.28 $67.93 $269.46 18% 63% 47% 28% 0% 47% 33% 0%
Jagged Peak Energy, Inc. JAG $13.83 Outperform $16 28% 0.8x $11.16 80% 10% 10% 33 66% 16.4x $116.18 $98.89 $183.68 12% 67% 67% 63% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Matador Resources Company MTDR $33.05 In Line $38 28% 0.8x $6.27 55% 0% 45% 106 57% 10.4x $47.15 $37.42 $100.26 0% 55% 47% 18% 0% 60% 33% 0%
Parsley Energy, Inc. Class A PE $29.25 Outperform $36 37% 1.5x $11.08 66% 18% 16% 416 47% 16.8x $32.25 $27.02 $160.63 82% 67% 92% 34% 0% 28% 16% 0%
Pioneer Natural Resources Company PXD $174.19 Outperform $250 8% 0.3x $1.22 58% 20% 22% 978 7% 9.8x $33.29 $31.73 $112.23 85% 90% 83% 31% 74% 69% 40% 0%
Cimarex Energy Co. XEC $92.94 Outperform $115 25% 0.7x $2.33 30% 25% 45% 562 17% 8.1x $19.38 $17.69 $52.43 19% 39% 48% 24% 6% 42% 2% 0%
Average
Natural Gas
Antero Resources Corporation AR $17.71 In Line $22 39% 2.4x $3.70 2% 26% 72% 2,687 50% 19.6x $3.40 $2.17 $15.54 0% 11% 70% 0% 117% 107% 105% 100%
Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation COG $22.52 Outperform $30 21% 1.0x $0.76 4% 0% 96% 1,621 36% 14.2x $7.95 $6.78 $35.94 34% 41% 0% 0% 7% 13% 33% 0%
EQT Corporation EQT $44.23 Outperform $60 31% 1.9x $4.16 1% 12% 87% 3,574 49% 24.2x $4.40 $2.83 $23.34 0% 0% 0% 0% 42% 79% 51% 33%
Range Resources Corporation RRC $16.99 In Line $22 42% 3.7x $3.02 4% 29% 67% 2,544 47% 20.8x $4.54 $3.34 $25.06 67% 58% 25% 17% 85% 73% 85% 50%
Southwestern Energy Company SWN $5.11 In Line $6 61% 3.4x $2.68 2% 10% 89% 2,463 37% 16.5x $3.98 $2.08 $15.55 0% 0% 0% 0% 34% 81% 91% 77%
Average

Berry Petroleum Corporation BRY $17.62 Outperform $18 36% 1.4x $5.60 78% 2% 20% 141 39% 14.7x $13.35 $13.35 $63.68 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 41% 0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0% 0%
Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK $4.49 In Line $6 126% 4.4x $7.19 17% 10% 73% 1,912 42% 9.5x $10.53 $7.93 $28.95 74% 70% 82% 11% 66% 76% 71% 13%
Continental Resources, Inc. CLR $68.28 Outperform $67 51% 1.6x $8.01 57% 0% 43% 1,331 60% 15.0x $28.70 $23.83 $131.98 0% 0% 0% 0% 10% 44% 64% 0%
California Resources Corp CRC $48.53 Outperform $55 117% 5.4x $11.45 64% 12% 24% 648 23% 13.7x $18.68 $12.74 $59.76 0% 0% 19% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Encana Corporation ECA $13.11 Outperform $16 36% 1.3x $9.47 24% 17% 59% 2,067 47% 18.1x $10.43 $7.96 $51.28 73% 66% 106% 65% 95% 80% 102% 94%
Newfield Exploration Company NFX $28.83 In Line $38 53% 1.3x $5.21 40% 21% 39% 638 35% 11.5x $16.92 $12.53 $52.25 109% 88% 72% 0% 8% 62% 59% 0%
Oasis Petroleum Inc. OAS $14.18 In Line $16 44% 2.5x $13.65 78% 0% 22% 312 42% 12.9x $25.12 $21.94 $100.72 73% 61% 72% 33% 0% 0% 0% 0%
QEP Resources QEP $11.32 In Line $12 44% 2.8x $10.50 37% 10% 53% 685 0% 12.9x $7.12 $7.12 $33.52 45% 65% 69% 37% 62% 59% 64% 36%
Whiting Petroleum Corporation WLL $53.04 In Line $50 41% 2.2x $7.01 68% 16% 16% 619 44% 14.4x $17.24 $12.35 $62.78 59% 58% 71% 11% 0% 0% 0% 0%
WPX Energy, Inc. Class A WPX $20.12 Outperform $26 34% 1.6x $9.21 56% 13% 32% 436 46% 10.9x $29.15 $24.41 $102.26 72% 74% 71% 41% 107% 89% 93% 24%
Average
Canadian Senior C$
Suncor Energy Inc. SU-TSE $49.98 Outperform $58 25% 1.2x $6.48 100% 0% 0% 7,788 68% 31.1x $19.50 $12.61 $142.95 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 0%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited
CNQ-TSE $42.20 In Line $50 43% 2.3x $2.84 65% 0% 35% 8,784 31% 25.0x $14.44 $8.34 $106.62 0% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.0% 0%
Average
12
Figure 17: Trading Comparables - $55 WTI / $2.75 NYMEX pricing
9/28/2018 52-week % below EV/DACF EV/EBITDA Production Growth
Ticker Price Rating $55 NAV high (%) Curr Price Market Cap Adj TEV Div Yld 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
Large Cap
Apache Corporation APA $47.67 In Line $33 $49.59 -31% 18,353 27,073 2.1% 8.8x 9.2x 8.8x 7.5x 8.8x 8.2x 3.0% 12.2% 11.1%
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation APC $67.41 Outperform $58 $76.70 -14% 34,042 39,169 1.5% 8.0x 7.0x 6.6x 7.0x 7.0x 6.4x -1.2% 9.9% 10.5%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN $39.94 Outperform $31 $46.54 -22% 15,415 19,691 0.8% 9.7x 8.7x 7.2x 8.1x 8.1x 6.7x -2.6% 3.5% 9.4%
EOG Resources, Inc. EOG $127.57 Outperform $101 $131.60 -21% 73,849 79,275 0.6% 10.9x 11.2x 9.4x 10.8x 10.6x 9.0x 17.8% 15.9% 13.0%
Marathon Oil Corporation MRO $23.28 Outperform $15 $23.67 -36% 19,621 23,454 0.9% 8.9x 9.0x 8.4x 7.9x 8.7x 8.1x 7.0% 5.9% 5.8%
Noble Energy, Inc. NBL $31.19 Outperform $28 $37.76 -10% 15,096 20,472 1.4% 9.2x 8.6x 6.4x 8.6x 8.4x 5.9x -7.8% 7.8% 29.7%
Average 9.3x 8.9x 7.8x 8.3x 8.6x 7.4x
Permian
Callon Petroleum Company CPE $11.99 In Line $8 $14.65 -33% 2,732 3,795 0.0% 10.1x 8.1x 6.2x 10.3x 8.2x 6.2x 41.3% 40.0% 26.0%
Concho Resources Inc. CXO $152.75 Outperform $123 $163.11 -19% 30,348 34,410 0.0% 14.5x 10.2x 7.1x 14.6x 10.3x 7.3x 36.4% 36.7% 24.5%
Energen Corporation EGN $86.17 In Line $62 $87.88 -28% 8,396 9,224 0.0% 10.6x 8.5x 6.2x 11.0x 8.7x 6.3x 32.2% 26.4% 28.3%
Diamondback Energy, Inc. FANG $135.19 Outperform $138 $138.25 2% 22,195 22,630 0.3% 16.2x 9.4x 6.5x 19.8x 9.8x 6.9x 72.5% 106.1% 27.0%
Jagged Peak Energy, Inc. JAG $13.83 Outperform $10 $16.55 -28% 2,946 3,215 0.0% 8.8x 7.9x 6.0x 8.7x 7.8x 5.9x 97.3% 30.8% 27.9%
Parsley Energy, Inc. Class A PE $29.25 Outperform $21 $33.43 -28% 9,272 11,246 0.0% 10.2x 8.4x 7.0x 9.8x 8.9x 7.3x 60.8% 30.3% 27.5%
Pioneer Natural Resources Company PXD $174.19 Outperform $179 $213.40 3% 29,786 30,879 0.2% 10.4x 10.2x 9.5x 10.8x 10.2x 9.2x 15.6% 2.8% 11.8%
Cimarex Energy Co. XEC $92.94 Outperform $79 $130.16 -15% 8,869 9,672 0.6% 7.3x 7.4x 6.1x 7.1x 7.3x 6.1x 13.9% 12.4% 13.4%
Average 10.7x 8.6x 6.8x 11.3x 8.7x 6.8x
Natural Gas
Antero Resources Corporation AR $17.71 In Line $16 $22.69 -10% 5,614 5,665 0.0% 4.0x 4.5x 3.0x 5.3x 4.6x 3.1x 17.7% 24.7% 18.3%
Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation COG $22.52 Outperform $23 $29.57 2% 10,204 10,977 1.1% 9.1x 6.8x 6.0x 10.5x 6.6x 5.5x 10.6% 35.9% 15.1%
EQT Corporation EQT $44.23 Outperform $50 $66.03 13% 11,716 9,898 0.3% 4.6x 4.7x 4.3x 4.4x 4.1x 3.8x 68.5% 13.0% 9.2%
Range Resources Corporation RRC $16.99 In Line $12 $20.65 -29% 4,178 9,017 0.5% 4.5x 8.0x 6.7x 8.2x 8.0x 6.7x 10.3% 9.8% 11.8%
Southwestern Energy Company SWN $5.11 In Line $3 $6.72 -41% 2,932 6,998 0.0% 6.9x 6.5x 6.7x 7.5x 5.3x 5.5x 7.2% 6.7% 8.5%
Average 6.1x 6.4x 5.6x 7.9x 6.1x 5.2x

Berry Petroleum Corporation BRY $17.62 Outperform $12 $17.64 -32% 1,433 1,887 2.7% 11.9x 7.2x 6.6x 6.8x 6.2x 5.7x 4.8% 19.1% 11.7%
Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK $4.49 In Line $6 $5.60 34% 4,081 15,165 0.0% 6.0x 7.8x 6.7x 5.6x 7.8x 6.7x -7.1% -14.3% 3.0%
Continental Resources, Inc. CLR $68.28 Outperform $47 $69.91 -31% 25,676 31,713 0.0% 9.7x 9.0x 7.5x 9.5x 8.8x 7.4x 22.1% 17.6% 16.1%
California Resources Corp CRC $48.53 In Line $15 $49.36 -69% 634 6,546 0.0% 8.6x 10.4x 10.7x 7.8x 9.3x 9.6x 2.5% 5.5% 3.0%
Encana Corporation ECA $13.11 Outperform $11 $14.31 -18% 12,586 16,448 0.5% 8.1x 7.9x 6.7x 7.5x 6.9x 6.0x 16.3% 22.8% 7.3%
Newfield Exploration Company NFX $28.83 In Line $24 $35.20 -17% 5,795 7,922 0.0% 5.1x 4.8x 4.1x 5.5x 4.9x 4.1x 22.9% 15.2% 12.4%
Oasis Petroleum Inc. OAS $14.18 In Line $11 $14.33 -22% 4,439 6,850 0.0% 6.4x 6.7x 6.2x 7.2x 6.7x 6.1x 26.5% 19.7% 15.1%
QEP Resources, Inc. QEP $11.32 In Line $9 $13.77 -20% 2,683 5,328 0.0% 6.3x 5.5x 4.2x 4.2x 5.9x 4.4x -3.7% 0.0% 8.8%
Whiting Petroleum Corporation WLL $53.04 In Line $26 $56.47 -51% 4,881 7,642 0.0% 6.2x 6.3x 5.8x 6.0x 6.3x 5.7x 9.7% 5.9% 4.1%
WPX Energy, Inc. Class A WPX $20.12 Outperform $18 $20.37 -11% 8,446 10,797 0.0% 10.4x 7.9x 6.9x 10.5x 7.9x 6.8x 13.8% 31.1% 15.8%
Average 7.5x 7.5x 6.6x 7.1x 7.2x 6.3x
Canadian Senior C$
Suncor Energy Inc. SU-TSE $49.98 Outperform $39 $55.47 -22% 82,017 98,180 2.9% 11.7x 7.8x 7.4x 7.5x 6.4x 6.1x 7.5% 12.5% 1.3%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ-TSE $42.20 In Line $32 $49.08 -24% 52,012 73,227 3.0% 9.0x 8.9x 8.6x 7.3x 7.1x 6.8x 14.6% 6.2% 6.5%
Average 12.5x 25.7x 27.5x 167.5x 8.8x 8.7x
13
E&P Stock Performance
Figure 18: E&P Universe Performance
52-Week 52-Week % Below % Above Last 3 Last 6 Last 12
9/28/2018
Ticker Last Price High Low 52W-HI 52W-LO Last Week Last Month Months Months Months 2017 2018 YTD
Indices
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration & Production ETF XOP 43.29 45 31 (4.8%) 39.7% 1.9% 2.7% 0.6% 25.5% 26.0% (10.2%) 16.4%
Alerian MLP AMZ 274.82 305 232 (9.9%) 18.5% (1.3%) (4.7%) 5.1% 16.2% (3.1%) (13.0%) (0.1%)
S&P 500 SP50 2913.98 2941 2508 (0.9%) 16.2% (0.5%) 0.6% 7.9% 11.5% 16.2% 19.4% 9.0%
Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund XLE 75.74 79 64 (4.6%) 17.5% 0.9% 0.9% 0.2% 12.5% 10.7% (4.1%) 4.8%
PHLX Oil Service Index OSX 149.48 172 125 (13.3%) 19.1% 1.3% 2.0% (3.8%) 10.5% 5.5% (18.6%) (0.0%)
Large Caps
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation APC-US 67.41 77 47 (12.1%) 44.2% 4.3% 4.4% (9.3%) 10.9% 37.4% (23.1%) 25.7%
EOG Resources, Inc. EOG-US 127.57 132 95 (3.1%) 34.5% 6.8% 7.5% 2.9% 20.0% 31.1% 6.7% 18.2%
Apache Corporation APA-US 47.67 50 34 (3.9%) 41.9% 3.7% 8.9% 3.9% 27.2% 3.0% (33.5%) 12.9%
Marathon Oil Corporation MRO-US 23.28 24 13 (1.6%) 78.0% 6.5% 11.5% 9.7% 47.2% 69.6% (2.2%) 37.5%
Devon Energy Corporation DVN-US 39.94 47 30 (14.2%) 33.9% (1.5%) (6.9%) (8.1%) 26.0% 7.5% (9.3%) (3.5%)
Noble Energy, Inc. NBL-US 31.19 38 24 (17.4%) 28.4% 2.4% 2.7% (12.7%) 3.2% 10.2% (23.4%) 7.0%
ConocoPhillips COP-US 77.40 79 49 (1.6%) 58.9% 1.5% 6.3% 12.6% 30.9% 54.1% 9.5% 41.0%
Hess Corporation HES-US 71.58 74 40 (3.4%) 77.8% 1.5% 8.2% 9.2% 43.5% 52.5% (23.8%) 50.8%
Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY-US 82.17 88 62 (6.3%) 31.5% 3.2% 2.4% (1.9%) 24.8% 26.0% 3.4% 11.6%
Bakken
Oasis Petroleum Inc. OAS-US 14.18 14 7 (1.0%) 94.0% 9.3% 7.9% 5.7% 74.8% 54.0% (44.5%) 68.6%
Whiting Petroleum Corporation WLL-US 53.04 56 19 (6.1%) 185.8% 9.5% 8.6% (0.9%) 61.1% 131.0% (44.9%) 100.3%
Continental Resources, Inc. CLR-US 68.28 70 36 (2.3%) 89.4% 9.7% 3.5% 1.6% 19.2% 73.1% 2.8% 28.9%
Permian
Approach Resources Inc. AREX-US 2.23 4 2 (47.0%) 14.1% 2.3% 2.8% (12.9%) (11.2%) (15.2%) (11.6%) (24.7%)
Concho Resources Inc. CXO-US 152.75 163 124 (6.4%) 23.6% 6.9% 10.3% 10.9% (2.7%) 15.5% 13.3% 1.7%
Energen Corporation EGN-US 86.17 88 48 (1.9%) 80.2% 5.4% 10.4% 20.6% 47.8% 58.9% (0.2%) 49.7%
Diamondback Energy, Inc. FANG-US 135.19 138 96 (2.2%) 41.3% 5.2% 10.2% 3.9% 4.7% 39.5% 24.9% 7.1%
Jagged Peak Energy JAG-US 13.83 17 11 (16.4%) 31.1% (0.6%) 7.4% 5.2% 11.8% (0.9%) N/A (12.4%)
Laredo Petroleum, Inc. LPI-US 8.17 13 7 (37.2%) 10.3% (7.2%) (3.5%) (13.4%) (4.8%) (38.5%) (25.0%) (23.0%)
Matador Resources Company MTDR-US 33.05 35 24 (6.2%) 37.5% 1.6% 1.4% 9.9% 16.7% 20.8% 20.8% 6.2%
Parsley Energy, Inc. Class A PE-US 29.25 33 21 (12.5%) 38.5% 1.6% 1.5% (3.4%) 8.6% 12.7% (16.5%) (0.6%)
Pioneer Natural Resources Company PXD-US 174.19 213 140 (18.4%) 24.1% 1.0% (1.8%) (9.7%) 1.4% 16.5% (4.0%) 0.8%
Cimarex Energy Co. XEC-US 92.94 130 81 (28.6%) 15.4% 0.6% 10.4% (7.5%) (0.7%) (19.5%) (10.2%) (23.8%)
Callon Petroleum Company CPE-US 11.99 15 10 (18.2%) 23.0% 2.0% 5.2% 7.5% (0.3%) 8.2% (20.9%) (1.3%)
Centennial Resource Development, Inc. Class A CDEV-US 21.85 22 16 (1.3%) 38.5% 4.9% 15.6% 15.9% 24.8% 13.9% 0.4% 10.4%
DJ Basin
Bonanza Creek Energy Inc BCEI-US 29.78 40 24 (26.3%) 25.9% (0.7%) (7.1%) (17.0%) 11.7% (9.2%) (75.8%) 7.9%
HighPoint Resources Corp. HPR-US 4.88 8 4 (35.8%) 20.5% (5.8%) (4.5%) (21.8%) (0.2%) 7.0% (26.6%) (4.9%)
PDC Energy Inc PDCE-US 48.96 66 41 (26.0%) 19.0% 0.2% (8.9%) (19.7%) (0.1%) (2.3%) (29.0%) (5.0%)
SRC Energy Inc SRCI-US 8.89 13 8 (33.3%) 14.6% (0.3%) (7.9%) (20.3%) (2.8%) (4.4%) (4.3%) 4.2%
Extraction Oil & Gas, Inc. XOG-US 11.29 17 10 (35.2%) 12.5% 2.5% (2.7%) (24.6%) (1.5%) (26.2%) (28.6%) (21.1%)
Marcellus / Utica
Antero Resources Corporation AR-US 17.71 23 16 (21.9%) 8.6% (7.2%) (4.3%) (16.0%) (7.9%) (13.0%) (19.7%) (6.8%)
CNX Resources Corporation CNX-US 14.31 18 12 (22.1%) 22.4% (2.1%) (8.9%) (17.1%) (7.5%) 1.3% (3.8%) (2.2%)
Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation COG-US 22.52 30 21 (23.8%) 4.8% (3.0%) (6.1%) (3.7%) (5.3%) (16.1%) 22.4% (21.3%)
EQT Corporation EQT-US 44.23 66 44 (33.0%) 1.2% (8.3%) (11.5%) (19.5%) (6.8%) (32.2%) (13.0%) (22.3%)
Gulfport Energy Corporation GPOR-US 10.41 15 8 (31.0%) 28.4% (11.5%) (11.1%) (14.5%) 13.0% (29.5%) (41.0%) (18.4%)
National Fuel Gas Company NFG-US 56.06 60 48 (6.4%) 16.0% (0.3%) 0.1% 5.1% 10.3% (2.6%) (3.1%) 2.1%
Range Resources Corporation RRC-US 16.99 21 12 (17.7%) 42.4% (2.9%) 3.1% 2.0% 18.8% (16.8%) (50.3%) (0.4%)
Southwestern Energy Company SWN-US 5.11 7 3 (23.9%) 49.4% (11.1%) (9.7%) (4.7%) 19.4% (18.9%) (48.4%) (8.4%)
Diversified Mid Caps

Carrizo Oil & Gas, Inc. CRZO-US 25.20 32 13 (20.2%) 86.7% (1.6%) 5.5% (11.1%) 62.1% 46.1% (43.0%) 18.4%
Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK-US 4.49 6 3 (19.8%) 77.5% 1.1% (1.5%) (13.0%) 52.2% 1.6% (43.6%) 13.4%
Denbury Resources Inc. DNR-US 6.20 6 1 (2.9%) 496.2% 10.9% 15.9% 27.0% 134.8% 352.6% (39.9%) 180.5%
EP Energy Corp. Class A EPE-US 2.34 4 1 (33.1%) 85.0% 13.0% 34.5% (27.8%) 68.3% (33.3%) (64.0%) (0.8%)
Kosmos Energy Ltd. KOS-US 9.35 10 5 (3.9%) 81.6% (1.7%) 7.5% 17.0% 52.5% 15.0% (2.3%) 36.5%
Murphy Oil Corporation MUR-US 33.34 36 24 (7.3%) 36.7% 3.7% 6.8% (1.5%) 29.6% 21.5% (0.3%) 7.4%
Newfield Exploration Company NFX-US 28.83 35 23 (18.1%) 26.9% (0.7%) 3.4% (6.0%) 21.8% (3.2%) (22.1%) (8.6%)
QEP Resources, Inc. QEP-US 11.32 14 7 (17.8%) 60.8% 2.1% 12.4% (7.5%) 20.6% 33.3% (48.0%) 18.3%
SM Energy Company SM-US 31.53 32 16 (2.7%) 95.7% (0.0%) 3.9% 18.4% 71.5% 68.0% (36.0%) 42.8%
Integrateds
Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM-US 85.02 89 72 (4.8%) 17.8% (0.2%) 5.7% 4.1% 15.4% 4.4% (7.3%) 1.6%
Royal Dutch Shell Plc Class B RDSB-LON 26.89 28 22 (5.5%) 22.6% 2.8% 2.9% (1.5%) 16.6% 18.4% 6.6% 7.2%
Chevron Corporation CVX-US 122.28 134 108 (8.7%) 13.2% 0.9% 1.6% (3.0%) 6.6% 4.1% 6.4% (2.3%)
Total SA FP-FR 55.84 56 43 (0.8%) 29.6% 1.7% 0.8% 6.4% 21.2% 23.8% (5.5%) 21.3%
Repsol SA REP-ES 17.17 18 14 (2.0%) 25.6% 4.2% 3.7% 2.1% 19.4% 10.2% 9.9% 16.4%
Eni S.p.A. ENI-IT 16.28 17 13 (3.6%) 23.2% (0.2%) (0.9%) 2.7% 14.7% 16.9% (10.8%) 18.0%
BP p.l.c. BP-LON 5.89 6 5 (1.3%) 30.2% 3.9% 4.5% 1.2% 24.0% 24.6% 2.6% 12.7%
United States (Small-Cap)

Comstock Resources, Inc. CRK-US 8.38 12 4 (32.0%) 109.0% (6.4%) (12.2%) (20.8%) 11.0% 37.6% (14.1%) (0.9%)
Halcon Resources Corp HK-US 4.47 9 4 (50.7%) 25.6% (2.4%) 5.2% 2.5% (4.7%) (38.0%) (19.0%) (41.0%)
Jones Energy, Inc. Class A JONE-US 6.00 40 4 (85.0%) 48.5% 25.3% (3.4%) (14.3%) (65.3%) (84.2%) (76.1%) (72.7%)
Lilis Energy, Inc. LLEX-US 4.90 6 3 (22.2%) 58.1% (3.7%) (3.4%) (8.9%) 39.2% 9.6% 64.8% (4.1%)
Northern Oil and Gas, Inc. NOG-US 4.00 4 1 (2.4%) 538.1% 8.4% 16.3% 38.4% 124.7% 312.5% (25.5%) 95.1%
Resolute Energy Corporation REN-US 37.81 39 25 (2.1%) 48.5% 5.3% 21.2% 12.4% 15.0% 25.2% (23.6%) 20.1%
Ring Energy, Inc. REI-US 9.91 17 10 (42.9%) 1.5% (10.6%) (13.5%) (24.6%) (30.2%) (29.7%) 7.0% (28.7%)
Sanchez Energy Corporation SN-US 2.30 6 2 (62.8%) 0.9% (10.9%) (15.4%) (48.4%) (25.1%) (53.6%) (41.2%) (56.7%)
W&T Offshore, Inc. WTI-US 9.64 10 3 (2.0%) 271.5% 24.9% 41.6% 36.0% 126.8% 180.2% 19.5% 191.2%
Canadian (Seniors)
Suncor Energy Inc. SU-CA 49.98 55 40 (9.9%) 23.4% (1.0%) (7.7%) (6.3%) 12.5% 15.3% 5.1% 8.3%
Imperial Oil Limited IMO-CA 41.80 45 33 (6.9%) 25.0% 2.6% 0.6% (3.8%) 23.2% 4.8% (16.0%) 6.6%
Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ-CA 42.20 49 37 (14.0%) 14.4% 0.7% (8.6%) (8.1%) 6.8% (1.3%) 5.0% (6.1%)
Husky Energy Inc. HSE-CA 22.68 23 15 (1.3%) 50.3% 4.4% 3.5% 9.9% 27.6% 44.5% 9.0% 27.8%
Encana Corporation ECA-CA 16.93 19 12 (8.7%) 36.9% 3.7% 0.0% (5.0%) 18.1% 14.9% 6.4% 1.0%
Canadian (Intermediates)
Crescent Point Energy Corp. CPG-CA 8.22 12 7 (30.4%) 23.4% 1.6% (4.1%) (16.4%) (9.5%) (20.6%) (47.5%) (14.2%)
ARC Resources Ltd. ARX-CA 14.40 18 12 (21.5%) 21.2% 5.6% (4.3%) 5.6% 3.1% (18.8%) (36.2%) (2.4%)
MEG Energy Corp. MEG-CA 8.03 12 4 (30.2%) 87.6% 6.1% (2.9%) (25.9%) 76.5% 42.9% (44.3%) 56.2%
Vermilion Energy Inc. VET-CA 42.56 50 39 (15.7%) 8.0% 0.9% 1.8% (10.1%) 5.3% (6.4%) (19.1%) (6.8%)
Kelt Exploration Ltd. KEL-CA 8.41 10 6 (16.0%) 32.4% 4.7% (11.4%) (7.9%) 23.3% 18.1% 6.2% 17.0%
Tourmaline Oil Corp. TOU-CA 22.74 27 18 (16.6%) 27.9% 8.3% 3.4% (3.5%) 4.9% (13.9%) (36.6%) (0.2%)
Obsidian Energy Ltd OBE-CA 1.21 2 1 (34.6%) 14.2% (3.2%) (13.6%) (18.8%) 0.0% (8.3%) (34.2%) (22.4%)
Baytex Energy Corp. BTE-CA 3.75 6 3 (39.8%) 27.1% 8.4% (13.0%) (15.7%) 4.2% (2.1%) (42.5%) (0.5%)
Enerplus Corporation ERF-CA 15.95 18 11 (11.6%) 51.2% 3.7% (3.6%) (4.8%) 10.2% 29.3% (3.4%) 29.6%
Bonavista Energy Corporation BNP-CA 1.49 3 1 (51.5%) 34.2% 12.9% (1.3%) 0.0% 24.2% (53.1%) (53.2%) (33.8%)
Pengrowth Energy Corporation PGF-CA 1.12 2 1 (26.3%) 45.5% 17.9% 21.7% 20.4% 34.9% (17.6%) (48.2%) 12.0%
Seven Generations Energy Ltd. Class A VII-CA 15.40 21 14 (27.5%) 13.1% 3.1% (6.2%) 7.7% (2.2%) (24.1%) (43.2%) (13.4%)
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. AAV-Ca 3.60 8 3 (54.7%) 15.8% 9.8% (10.0%) (16.3%) (7.0%) (55.3%) (40.8%) (33.3%)
Source: FactSet, Evercore ISI Research
14
Evercore ISI Commodity Outlook
Figure 19: EVR ISI Commodity Forecast
2016 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018 2019 Thereafter
EVR ISI WTI ($/bbl) $43.33 $50.81 $62.89 $67.93 $61.00 $66.00 $61.00 $66.00 $66.00
Consensus $43.33 $50.81 $62.89 $65.00 $69.00 $67.75 $67.00 $65.53 $65.53
Forward Curve $43.33 $50.81 $62.89 $67.93 $69.60 $70.09 $67.63 $70.77 $70.77
EVR ISI Brent ($/bbl) $44.38 $54.33 $67.03 $74.55 $65.00 $70.00 $65.00 $70.00 $65.00
Consensus $44.38 $54.33 $67.03 $70.00 $75.00 $74.00 $73.20 $72.75 $72.75
Forward Curve $44.38 $54.33 $67.03 $74.55 $77.40 $77.80 $74.19 $79.55 $79.55
EVR ISI Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) $2.46 $3.11 $3.00 $2.80 $2.95 $3.10 $2.96 $3.00 $3.00
Consensus $2.46 $3.11 $3.00 $2.80 $2.85 $3.02 $2.93 $2.80 $2.99
Forward Curve $2.46 $3.11 $3.00 $2.80 $2.87 $2.97 $2.91 $2.82 $2.82
Figure 20: EVR WTI vs Consensus & Futures Figure 21: EVR Natural Gas vs Consensus & Futures
$75.00 $3.50
$70.00
$3.25
$65.00
$3.00
$60.00
$55.00 $2.75
$50.00
$2.50
$45.00
$2.25
$40.00
EVR ISI Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) Consensus Forward Curve

EVR ISI WTI ($/bbl) Consensus Forward Curve
Figure 22: NYMEX WTI Strip over time Figure 23: NYMEX Natural Gas Strip over time
$75 $4.00
$70
$65 $3.50
$60
$55 $3.00
$/mmbtu
$/bbl
$50
$45
$2.50
$40
9/28/2018 9/28/2018
$35
1 year ago $2.00
$30 1 year ago
6 months ago
$25 2 years ago
1 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 $1.50
Contract Month # 1 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84
Contract Month #
15
Commodities: Domestic Crude Oil
Figure 24: Select North American Crude Differentials (Price, Differential to WTI)
WCS
$38.35
Syncrude $34.90
$58.25 Bakken
$71.50
$15.00
$1.75
WTI $73.25
WTI Midland
$66.00
$7.25
Mars Blend LLS

$78.35 - $81.25
$5.10 -$8.00
Source: Bloomberg LP, Evercore ISI Research
Figure 25: Crude Oil Prices Figure 26: Front Month vs 12 Month WTI
This Week 2018 YTD Avg 2Q18 Avg 2017 Average $120
(US$/bbl ) 28-Sep-18 Price Price Price
Global Benchm ar k s
WTI Cushing $73.25 $67.03 $68.10 $51.03 $100
Dated Brent $83.02 $72.45 $74.66 $54.58
Tapis $83.46 $74.13 $76.73 $55.58 $80
Dubai Fateh $79.99 $69.99 $72.25 $53.08
Futur es
$/bbl
$60
NYMEX front month $73.52 $66.97 $68.07 $51.08
NYMEX Crude 12 Month Strip $70.53 $62.51 $63.31 $52.03
ICE Brent front month $82.72 $67.03 $68.10 $51.03 $40
Nor th Am Spot Cr udes
LLS St James $81.25 $71.15 $73.08 $54.27
$20
Syncrude Sw eet $58.25 $64.30 $64.89 $52.37
Alaska N Slope $81.75 $73.20 $75.05 $54.16
WTI Midland $66.00 $59.48 $59.85 $50.67 $0
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
WTS Midland $65.75 $58.92 $59.38 $50.06

Mars Blend $78.35 $67.79 $69.59 $50.90
Venezuela $0.00 $63.76 $64.32 $46.66
NYMEX Crude Front Month NYMEX Crude 12 Month Strip
Mx Maya $74.21 $62.15 $62.32 $47.27
Western CA Select $38.35 $42.85 $49.57 $38.27
Clearbrook (Minnesota) $71.50 $66.14 $67.94 $51.30
16
Crude Supply
Figure 27: Lower 48 Production Figure 28: Canada Production
12,000 $120 5,000 $120
4,500
10,000 $100 $100
4,000
8,000 $80 3,500

$80
3,000
6,000 $60 2,500 $60
2,000
4,000 $40 $40
1,500
2,000 $20 1,000

$20
500
0 $0 0 $0
Lower 48 prod (mbbls/d) WTI Crude ($/bbl) CAD Crude Oil (mbbls/d) Western CA Select ($/bbl)
Source: EIA, Bloomberg LP, Evercore ISI Research Source: EIA, Bloomberg LP, Evercore ISI Research
Figure 29: IEA Non-OPEC Supply Revision History Figure 30: IEA US Supply Revision History
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19
2.5
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
2
2
1.5
Non-OPEC YoY Growth (mb/d)
1.5
US YoY Growth (mb/d)
1
1
0.5 0.5
0 0
-0.5
-0.5
-1
-1
-1.5
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Month IEA Forecast Was Made Month IEA Forecast Was Made
Source: IEA, Evercore ISI Research Source: IEA, Evercore ISI Research
Figure 31: Weekly Petroleum rail car loadings Figure 32: IEA Global Crude Demand Revision History
18,000
2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18
2
16,000
Carloads / Intermodal Units (thousands)
Global YoY Demand Growth (mb/d)
14,000
1.5
12,000
10,000
1
8,000
6,000
4,000
0.5
5yr max 5yr min
5yr avg ('13-'17) 2017
2,000
2018
0 0
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan Feb Mar Mar / Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Apr
Month IEA Forecast Was Made
Source: AAR, Evercore ISI Research Source: IEA, Evercore ISI Research
17
Global Crude Inventories
Figure 33: US Crude Stocks Figure 34: PADD 3 Stocks
550
525
300
500
280
475
260
450
425 240
Mmbbls
Mmbbls
400 220
375
200
350
180
325
160
300
Max '13-17 Min '13-'17 5Yr Avg. 2017 2018
275 140 Max '13-17 Min '13-'17 5Yr Avg.
2017 2018
250 120
Oct
Dec
Mar
May
Jan
Jun
Aug
Sep
Feb
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mar
Apr
May
Jan
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Feb
Figure 35: OECD Total Crude Oil Stocks Figure 36: Non OECD Total Crude Oil Stocks
1,280 3,200
1,240
3,100
1,200
3,000
1,160
1,120 2,900
Mmbbls
Mmbbls
1,080
2,800
1,040
1,000 2,700
Max '13-'17 Min '13-'17
960 5Yr Avg. 2017
Max '13-'17 Min '13-'17 2,600
5Yr Avg. 2017 2018
920
2018
2,500
880
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mar
Jan
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Feb
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mar
Apr
May
Jan
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Feb
18
Regional Differentials vs Cushing
Figure 37: WTI less Brent Figure 38: WCS less Cushing
$4 $0
$2 ($5)
$0
($10)
($2)
($4) ($15)
($6) ($20)
$/bbl
$/bbl
($8) ($25)
($10) ($30)
($12)
WTI - Brent ($35)
($14)
($40) WCS - Cushing
($16)
($18) ($45)
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Figure 39: Brent less Dubai Figure 40: Midland less Cushing
$6 $5
Brent - Dubai
$5 $0
$4 ($5)
$/bbl
$/bbl
$3 ($10)
$2 ($15)
$1 ($20) Midland - Cushing
$0 ($25)
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Figure 41: Cushing less Maya Figure 42: Clearbrook less Cushing
$30 $10
$25 Cushing - Maya Clearbrook - Cushing
$5
$20
$0
$15
$10 ($5)
$/bbl
$/bbl
$5 ($10)
$0 ($15)
($5)
($20)
($10)
($15) ($25)
($20) ($30)
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
19
Brent and WTI Term Structure
Figure 43: Short-Dated WTI (2nd Month – Near Month) Figure 44: Long-Dated WTI (12th Month – Near Month)
$8 $25
Contango Contango
$20
$6
$15
$4
$10
$2 $5
$0
$0
-$5
-$2
-$10
-$4
Backwardation -$15
Backwardation
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2nd vs. 1st 12th vs. 1st
Figure 45: Short-Dated Brent (2nd Month – Near Month) Figure 46: Long-Dated Brent (12th Month – Near Month)
$4 $20
Contango Contango
$3 $15
$2 $10
$1 $5
$0 $0
-$1 -$5
-$2 -$10
-$3
Backwardation -$15
Backwardation
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2nd vs. 1st 12th vs. 1st
20
Lower 48 Oil/Liquids Wellhead Economics
Figure 47: Single Well Breakeven Prices for Major Lower 48 Oil Plays
$50
$45
Breakeven Oil Price (10% IRR)
$40
$35
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Source: Company Data, 1Derrick, Evercore ISI Research
Figure 48: Single Well NPVs for Major Lower 48 Oil Plays
$10
$8
NPV($mm)
$6
$4
$2
$0
NPV @ $50/bbl and $2.75/mmbtu NPV @ $60/bbl and $3/mmbtu
21
Commodities: Domestic NGLs
Figure 49: Mont Belvieu to WTI ratio Figure 50: NGL component pricing
75% $3.00
Pentane
Mt Belvieu to WTI ratio Isobutane
Avg (2012-YTD) $2.50 Butane
65%
Propane
Ethane
$2.00
55%
$/gallon
$1.50
45%
$1.00
35%
$0.50
25%
$0.00
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Figure 51: Table of NGL component pricing Figure 52: Henry Hub Mont Belvieu Frac Spread
$60
This Week 2018 YTD Avg 2Q18 Avg 2017 Average
(US$gal l on) 28-Sep-18 Price Price Price
$50
NGL com ponent Pr icing
Pentane $1.55 $1.50 $1.54 $1.15 $40
$/bbl
Ethane $0.53 $0.32 $0.29 $0.25

Butane $1.25 $1.06 $1.00 $0.92 $30
Isobutane $1.50 $1.15 $1.21 $0.91
Propane $1.06 $0.91 $0.88 $0.76 $20
$10
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Figure 53: DOE Ethane / Ethylene Stocks Figure 54: DOE Propane / Propylene Stocks
70,000 110,000
100,000
60,000
90,000
50,000
80,000
40,000 70,000
30,000 60,000
50,000
20,000
Max '13-'17 Min '13-'17 40,000 Max '13-'17 Min '13-'17
5Yr Avg. 2017
10,000 5Yr Avg. 2017
2018 30,000 2018
0 20,000
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mar
Apr
May
Jan
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Feb
Oct
Nov
Dec
Mar
Apr
May
Jan
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Feb
22
Figure 55: Current NYMEX Strip Pricing, NGL Barrel Components ($/gallon)
2016A 2017A 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018 2019 Thereafter

Ethane $0.20 $0.25 $0.24 $0.26 $0.28 $0.29 $0.27 $0.30 $0.31
Propane $0.48 $0.77 $0.95 $0.80 $0.79 $0.80 $0.84 $0.74 $0.72
Butane $0.65 $0.92 $1.00 $0.91 $0.91 $0.93 $0.94 $0.86 $0.81
Isobutane $0.68 $0.91 $1.01 $0.92 $0.92 $0.94 $0.95 $0.87 $0.91
Natural Gasoline $0.95 $1.13 $1.30 $1.27 $1.26 $1.26 $1.27 $1.22 $1.16
Figure 56: Change in Ethane NYMEX Strip Figure 57: Change in Propane NYMEX Strip
$0.40 $1.50
$1.00
$/gal
$/gal
$0.30
$0.50
9/28/2018 9/28/2018
6 months ago 6 months ago
1 year ago 1 year ago
$0.20 $0.00
2018 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021
Figure 58: Change in Butane NYMEX Strip Figure 59: Change in Isobutane NYMEX Strip
$1.50 $1.50
$1.00 $1.00
$/gal
$/gal
$0.50 $0.50
9/28/2018 9/28/2018
6 months ago 6 months ago
1 year ago 1 year ago
$0.00 $0.00
2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
23
Commodities: Domestic Natural Gas
Figure 60: Major Natural Gas Hubs
AECO
$1.68
-$1.45
Dom inion
South
$1.31
Opal -$1.82
PG&E $2.05 TETCO M2
Citygate $2.11
-$1.08 TN Zone 4 TETCO M3
$3.26 -$1.02
- Marcellus $1.45 New York
$0.13
$1.70 -$1.68 City Gate
-$1.43 $1.45
El Paso TCO -$1.68
San Juan Pool
SoCal SoCal NY
$1.76 $2.72
Citygate Border Transco 6
-$1.37 -$0.41
$2.00 $2.30 $2.30
-$1.13 -$0.83 -$0.83
El Paso
Perm ian
$1.09
-$2.04 Henry Hub
$3.13
Figure 61: Natural Gas Prices Figure 62: Marcellus Pricing

This Week 2018 YTD Avg 2Q18 Avg 2017 Average
(US$/m m btu) 28-Sep-18 Price Price Price
Futures 4.50
NYMEX NG Front Month $3.00 $2.85 $2.85 $3.02
NYMEX NG 12 Month Strip $2.81 $2.85 $2.88 $3.12 4.00
North Am Markets
Henry Hub $3.13 $2.90 $2.85 #NAME? 3.50
NY Transco 6 $2.30 $3.37 $2.67 $2.72

3.00
New York City Gate $1.45 $3.22 $2.35 $2.26
North East Average $2.32 $3.73 $2.73 $2.74
2.50
$/mmbtu
Dominion/ Appalachia $1.31 $2.85 $2.85 $3.02

Chicago City Gate $2.77 $2.72 $2.63 $2.85 2.00
Daw n Ontario, Canada $2.77 $2.69 $2.61 $2.85
Midcon Average $2.67 $2.63 $2.55 $2.82 1.50
PGE Citygate $3.26 $2.91 $2.84 $3.21
Cal Border Average $2.89 $2.63 $2.48 $3.00 1.00
SOCAL Border $2.30 $2.38 $2.20 $2.78
Permian Basin $1.09 $1.81 $1.66 $2.54 0.50
AECO Canada $1.68 $1.11 $0.96 $1.63

0.00
San Juan Basin $1.76 $2.09 $1.90 $2.58
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Rockies Opal $2.05 $2.24 $1.97 $2.65

Appalachian Markets
TETCO M2 $2.11 $2.39 $2.26 $2.02
Henry Hub Tennessee Zone 4 Marcellus Dominion south TETCO M2
TETCO M3 $1.45 $3.22 $2.35 $2.26
TCO Pool $2.72 $2.66 $2.65 $2.76
TN Zone 4 - Marcellus $1.70 $2.08 $1.53 $1.91
Dominion South $1.31 $2.38 $2.31 $2.03
24
Regional Differentials to NYMEX (Henry Hub)
Figure 63: Henry Hub less NY Transco Zone 6 Figure 64: Henry Hub less TETCO M3
$50 $47.00
NY Transco 6 $42.00 TETCO M3
$40
$37.00
$30 $32.00
$27.00
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
$20 $22.00
$17.00
$10
$12.00
$7.00
$0
$2.00
($10) ($3.00)
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Figure 65: Henry Hub less Waha Figure 66: Henry Hub less Dominion
$1.50 $0.50
$1.25 Waha Hub Dominion/ Appalachia
$1.00 $0.00
$0.75
($0.50)
$0.50
$0.25
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
($1.00)
$0.00
($0.25) ($1.50)
($0.50)
($2.00)
($0.75)
($1.00) ($2.50)
($1.25)
($1.50) ($3.00)
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Average includes El Paso, Gas transmission NW and PG&E City Gate

Figure 67: Henry Hub less San Juan Figure 68: Henry Hub less AECO
$1.25
San Juan Basin $2.75 AECO Canada
$0.75
$1.75
$0.25 $0.75
$/mmbtu
$/mmbtu
($0.25)
($0.25)
($1.25)
($0.75)
($2.25)
($1.25) ($3.25)
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
25
Natural Gas Supply / Demand
Figure 69: US Working Gas Storage Figure 70: Natural Gas Injection (Withdrawal)
4,500 200
4,000
100
3,500
0
3,000
(Bcf)
2,500 (100)
(Bcf)
2,000 5yr max (200)

5yr min 5 yr Avg
1,500
5yr avg (300) 2017
1,000
2017 2018
500 (400)
2018 Jan Feb Mar Mar / Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Apr
0
Jan Feb Mar Mar / Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Apr
Figure 71: US Natural Gas Injection (Withdrawal) Figure 72: Gas Storage Deviation from Price
Bloomberg $7.00
Consensus 2018 2017 5Yr. Avg
90 Nymex Front Month ($/mmbtu)
80 $6.00
80
70 $5.00
62.65
60 58 $4.00
Bcf
50 46
$3.00
40
30
$2.00
Current Value
20 $1.00
10
$0.00
0 (1,000) (500) 0 500 1,000
Week of Sep 21 Gas Storage Deviation from Seasonal Norm (Bcf)
Figure 73: US Dry Natural Gas Production Figure 74: Northeast Natural Gas Production
80 30 40%
Northeast
35%
25 % of US production
75
30%
20
25%
70
15 20%
Bcf/d
Bcf/d
65 15%
10
10%
60 5
5%
55
0%
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Source: EIA, Evercore ISI Research Source: Bentek, EIA, Evercore ISI Research
26
North American Natural Gas Wellhead Economics
Figure 75: Single Well Breakeven Prices for Major North American Natural Gas Plays
$5.00
$4.00
NYMEX ($/mmcf)
$3.00
$2.00
$1.00
$0.00
10% AT IRR ($3.0/Mmcf, $60/bbl)
Assumes 10% IRR and flat WTI price of $50/bbl

Figure 76: Single Well NPVs for Major North American Natural Gas Plays
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
IRR at $50/$3 IRR at EVRISI
Assumes $60/bbl WTI and $3.00/mmbtu Henry Hub

27
EIA STEO
Figure 77: EIA STEO
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 2019
Supply (billion cubic feet per day)
Total Dry Gas Production 71.2 72.0 74.0 77.0 73.5 78.5 80.4 82.0 82.9 80.9 83.9 84.5 84.8 85.3 84.6
LNG Gross Imports 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
LNG Gross Exports 1.6 1.8 1.7 2.6 1.9 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 2.9 4.2 4.5 5.7 6.6 5.2
Pipeline Gross Imports 8.9 7.8 7.7 8.1 8.1 8.7 7.6 7.1 7.6 7.8 8.2 7.3 7.3 8.0 7.7
Pipeline Gross Exports 7.2 6.5 6.4 6.8 6.7 7.0 6.1 6.9 8.0 7.0 8.9 8.2 8.1 8.7 8.5
Supplemental Gaseous Fuels 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Net Inventory Withdrawals 13.6 -9.0 -7.2 5.7 0.8 18.2 -8.8 -8.5 2.3 0.8 15.8 -10.5 -7.8 4.1 0.4
Total Supply 85.3 62.8 66.7 81.7 74.1 96.3 70.6 71.0 81.9 79.9 95.3 69.0 70.9 82.6 79.4
Balancing Item 0.7 0.2 0.2 -0.9 0.1 0.9 0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.1 1.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3
Total Primary Supply 86.0 63.0 66.9 80.9 74.2 97.1 70.8 70.4 81.1 79.9 96.5 68.9 70.9 82.7 79.7
Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)

Residential 22.1 6.6 3.6 16.2 12.1 25.7 8.0 3.4 15.8 13.2 25.3 7.2 3.4 15.5 12.8
Commercial 13.5 5.8 4.5 11.0 8.7 15.3 6.6 4.5 9.9 9.1 14.7 6.1 4.5 9.8 8.8
Industrial 23.0 20.5 20.3 22.8 21.6 24.3 21.8 20.8 23.4 22.6 23.9 21.5 20.9 23.8 22.5
Electric Power 20.9 24.0 32.2 24.0 25.3 24.5 27.6 34.8 24.8 27.9 24.8 26.9 34.7 25.8 28.1
Lease and Plant Fuel 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.4 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.1
Pipeline and Distribution Use 2.2 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.9 2.5 1.8 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.6 1.9 2.1 2.5 2.3
Vehicle Use 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Total Consumption 86.0 63.0 66.9 80.9 74.2 97.1 70.8 70.4 81.1 79.9 96.5 68.9 70.9 82.7 79.7
Source: EIA, Evercore ISI Research
28
Rig Count Data
Figure 78: Hz Oil vs Crude Futures Strip Figure 79: Big Three Hz Oil Rigs
$120 1,200 WTI ($/bbl) Eagle Ford hz oil rigs
$110 Permian hz oil rigs Bakken hz oil rigs
1,000 450 $120
$100 400
$100
$90 800 350
300 $80
Rig Count
$80
WTI $/bbl
Rigs
$/bbl
600 250
$70 $60
200
$60 400 150 $40
$50 100
200 $20
12-Month Crude Futures Strip (LHS) 50
$40
Total US hz Oil rigs 0 $0
$30 0
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
Feb-13
Feb-14
Feb-15
Feb-16
Feb-17
Feb-18
Aug-12
Nov-12
Aug-13
Nov-13
Aug-14
Nov-14
Aug-15
Nov-15
Aug-16
Nov-16
Aug-17
Nov-17
Aug-18
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Source: Baker Hughes, Bloomberg LP, Evercore ISI Research Source: Baker Hughes, Bloomberg LP, Evercore ISI Research
Figure 80: Baker Hughes Horizontal Oil Rig Count

Week over week 9/14/2018 9/28/2018 Delta
Total hz oil 769 768 (1)
Permian hz oil 434 435 1
Eagle Ford hz oil 68 69 1
Bakken hz oil 53 52 (1)
Last Rig Peak to Current 10/24/2014 9/28/2018 Delta

Total hz oil 1110 768 (342)
Eagle Ford hz oil 187 69 (118)
Bakken hz oil 175 52 (123)
Last Rig Trough to Current 5/13/2016 9/28/2018 Delta

Total hz oil 248 768 520
Bakken hz oil 24 52 28
Year over year 9/16/2016 9/28/2018 Delta

Total hz oil 325 768 443
Bakken hz oil 26 52 26
Source: Baker Hughes, Bloomberg LP, Evercore ISI Research
Figure 81: Hz Gas vs Gas Futures Strip Figure 82: Marcellus & Utica Hz Gas Rigs
700 140 Utica hz gas rigs Marc hz gas rigs
$5 600 120
500 100
$4 400 80
Rig Count
Rigs
$/mmbtu
300 60
$3 200 40
12-Month Natural Gas Futures Strip (LHS) 100 20

Total US hz Gas rigs
$2 0 0
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Apr-12
Oct-12
Apr-13
Oct-13
Apr-14
Oct-14
Apr-15
Oct-15
Apr-16
Oct-16
Apr-17
Oct-17
Apr-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
May-12
May-13
May-14
May-15
May-16
May-17
May-18
Jan-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Sep-15
Jan-16
Sep-16
Jan-17
Sep-17
Jan-18
Sep-18
Source: Baker Hughes, Bloomberg LP, Evercore ISI Research Source: Baker Hughes, Bloomberg LP, Evercore ISI Research
29
Figure 83: Rig Data by Operator
9/21 4 Weeks Beginning of
Ticker Current Prior   Ago   End of Q2'18   2017 2018 Beg of Q3'18
APA 19 15 4 27% 15 4 27% 15 4 27% 10 18 17

APC 9 6 3 50% 11 -2 -18% 9 0 0% 16 16 10
CHK 20 19 1 5% 17 3 18% 16 4 25% 10 10 17
DVN 19 19 0 0% 17 2 12% 17 2 12% 12 21 18
EOG 37 36 1 3% 40 -3 -8% 39 -2 -5% 14 30 43
ECA 6 6 0 0% 7 -1 -14% 6 0 0% 9 6 5
MRO 17 15 2 13% 17 0 0% 15 2 13% 9 19 14
NBL 5 5 0 0% 4 1 25% 3 2 67% 4 5 3
BRY 1 1 0 0% 1 0 0% 0 1 N/A N/A N/A 0

CLR 24 26 -2 -8% 24 0 0% 21 3 14% 18 15 21
CRC 5 4 1 25% 5 0 0% 1 4 400% 3 3 3
CXO 28 25 3 12% 29 -1 -3% 22 6 27% 17 20 23
CPE 6 7 -1 -14% 6 0 0% 5 1 20% 1 4 5
EGN 10 10 0 0% 10 0 0% 10 0 0% 5 6 11
FANG 15 15 0 0% 15 0 0% 13 2 15% 2 11 14
JAG 4 4 0 0% 4 0 0% 5 -1 -20% 2 6 5
OAS 4 3 1 33% 4 0 0% 3 1 33% 2 4 3
PE 15 15 0 0% 14 1 7% 16 -1 -6% 9 14 16
PXD 23 23 0 0% 22 1 5% 20 3 15% 16 23 23
WLL 3 5 -2 -40% 4 -1 -25% 4 -1 -25% 4 3 4
XEC 12 12 0 0% 13 -1 -8% 11 1 9% 11 14 12
AR 3 3 0 0% 3 0 0% 2 1 50% 4 5 4
COG 4 4 0 0% 5 -1 -20% 3 1 33% 3 3 4
EQT 6 6 0 0% 4 2 50% 5 1 20% 8 4 5
RRC 4 4 0 0% 3 1 33% 4 0 0% 1 6 4
SWN 4 4 0 0% 4 0 0% 4 0 0% 3 5 3
BRY 1 1 0 0% 1 0 N/A 0 1 N/A 6 0 0

NFX 12 8 4 50% 11 1 9% 10 2 20% 7 8 10
WPX 5 5 0 0% 3 2 67% 6 -1 -17% 7 7 5
XOM 56 54 2 4% 51 5 10% 46 10 22% 17 23 48

CVX 22 23 -1 -4% 22 0 0% 20 2 10% 12 18 19
COP 17 15 2 13% 16 1 6% 14 3 21% 13 19 16
BP 5 5 0 0% 6 -1 -17% 8 -3 -38% 7 11 7
RDS 5 5 0 0% 6 -1 -17% 7 -2 -29% 7 5 7
OXY 14 15 -1 -7% 16 -2 -13% 14 0 0% 7 14 16
HES 6 6 0 0% 5 1 20% 5 1 20% 2 4 4
ECR 2 2 0 0% 2 0 0% 2 0 0% 1 2 2
EPE 4 5 -1 N/A 4 0 N/A 4 0 0% 4 4 4
MUR 1 1 0 0% 1 0 0% 0 1 N/A 3 2 1
BHP 5 5 0 0% 5 0 0% 5 0 0% 3 9 5
PDCE 3 2 1 50% 2 1 50% 2 1 50% 3 3 2
BCEI 2 2 0 0% 2 0 0% 1 1 100% 1 1 1
BBG 0 0 0 N/A 0 0 N/A 0 0 N/A 1 2 0
GPOR 3 3 0 0% 3 0 0% 5 -2 -40% 6 8 5
CRC 5 4 1 25% 5 0 0% 1 4 400% 0 3 3
QEP 4 3 1 33% 4 0 0% 4 0 0% 5 7 4
SM 6 7 -1 -14% 7 -1 -14% 9 -3 -33% 5 9 9
Total 481 463 18 3.9% 470 11 2.3% 432 49 8.1% 310 430 455
% of US Land Rig Count 48% 47% 47%
Source: RigData, Bloomberg LP, Evercore ISI Research
30
CFTC Commitment of Traders
Figure 84: Distillate - CFTC Net Speculative Position Figure 85: RBOB - CFTC Net Speculative
100,000 $140,000
Distillate Net Long (Short) RBOB Reg Gasoline Net Long (Short)
80,000 $120,000
60,000 $100,000
40,000 $80,000
20,000 $60,000
0 $40,000
(20,000) $20,000
$-
(40,000)
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Figure 86: Crude Oil - CFTC Speculative Position Figure 87: Natural Gas - CFTC Speculative Position
1,100,000 $125 $700,000 $7
900,000
$500,000 $6
Front Month NG ($/mmbtu)

Front Month Crude ($/bbl)
$100
700,000
$300,000 $5
500,000 $75
Position (mmbtu)
$100,000 $4
Position (bbl)
300,000
$50 $(100,000) $3
100,000
-100,000 $(300,000) $2
$25
-300,000 $(500,000) $1
-500,000 $0 $(700,000) -$1

Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Jan-12
Jan-13
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Jan-18
Jul-12
Jul-13
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Jul-17
Jul-18
Crude Oil Spec Short Crude Oil Spec Long Natural Gas Spec Short Natural Gas Spec Long
Crude Oil Spec Net Front Month Crude (LHS $/bbl)
Natural Gas Spec Net Front Month Nat Gas (LHS $/mmbtu)
Figure 88: Overall CFTC Positions

CRUDE OIL M ARKETS POSITIONS
(bbl ) This Week 2018 YTD Avg 2Q18 Avg Seq. Q.
28-Sep-18 Growth/Decline
Large traders Crude Long Spec 647,214 618,441 774,652 -20%
Crude Short Spec 87,129 93,724 121,698 -23%
Commercial Traders Crude Long Spec 700,707 611,219 805,778 -24%
Crude Short Spec 1,296,897 1,161,022 1,490,001 -22%
Small Traders Crude Long Spec 102,535 89,701 116,395 -23%
Crude Short Spec 66,430 64,615 85,126 -24%
Total Contract Crude Long Spec 1,450,456 1,319,361 1,696,825 -22%
Crude Short Spec 1,450,456 1,319,361 1,696,825 -22%
NATURAL GAS M ARKETS POSITIONS

(mmbtu) This Week 2018 YTD Avg 2Q18 Avg Seq. Q.
28-Sep-18 Growth/Decline
Large traders Crude Long Spec 319,017 270,260 339,123 -20%
Crude Short Spec 357,657 341,226 420,306 -19%
Commercial Traders Crude Long Spec 624,445 458,291 563,657 -19%
Crude Short Spec 619,018 412,247 515,046 -20%
Small Traders Crude Long Spec 66,596 55,363 67,739 -18%
Crude Short Spec 33,383 30,441 35,167 -13%
Total Crude Long Spec 1,010,058 783,914 970,518 -19%
Crude Short Spec 1,010,058 783,914 970,518 -19%
31
E&P Sector Investment Thesis
We take a constructive view of the sector, yet selective in regards to stock selection.
Focus on the E&Ps with the resource base to participate. The winners of the next cycle will
be the resource growth franchises that can deliver volume growth to the addressable market
(for both oil & gas) at the highest returns.
Financial flexibility. Balance sheet strength provides the ability to withstand challenged
fundamentals (particularly if the cycle proves short and volatile) and protect asset value. The
lower cost businesses that were able to maintain operating momentum through the trough have
immeasurable advantages relative to peers who were forced to pull back and suspend activity.
Margins. The debate surrounding mid-cycle margins remains valid, particularly with the
increase in service cost inflation expectations. Upstream margins likely peaked (ex-commodity
price) in 4Q16 with expectations for higher costs (both capital and operating) for 2018. Growth
continues to be one of the only insulators in regards to service cost inflation. Basins where the
resource is continuing to improve (incremental well results better than the last) provide
important operating leverage in E&P. The Permian & Anadarko basins are the focus points of
this improvement.
Returns. We want to own the stocks where an incremental dollar of cash flow (or financial
capacity) will be invested at the highest possible return, driving 2017+ volume (and cash flow)
growth. The maturation of the onshore only (shale) business model and the prospect for self-
funded growth in 2018+ suggests shareholder returns (considering more growth is unlikely to
be rewarded by the market) are likely on the rise. The shifting of the E&P business model to a
more balanced return and growth model hold interesting valuation implications for the sector.
Figure 89: Energy Sector YTD Figure 90: EV/NTM EBITDA (consensus estimates)
14.0x
S&P 500 / R&M 19.8%

12.0x
Crude Oil 19.4%
SPDR S&P Oil & Gas E&P ETF 16.4% 10.0x
S&P 500 9.0%

8.0x
Energy Select 4.8%

6.0x
Natural Gas 3.5%
S&P 500 / Integrated 1.0% 4.0x
S&P TSX Capped / Energy 0.1% SMID Cap 6.0x

2.0x
Large Cap 6.0x
PHLX Oil Service Fixed 0.0% Universe 6.0x
0.0x
Alerian MLP -0.1%
-5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Large Cap avg SMID Cap avg Universe avg
Source: FactSet, Evercore ISI Research Source: FactSet, Evercore ISI Research
Figure 91: Lower 48 Quarterly Deal Value ($/flowing boe)

$60 $120,000
$50 $100,000
$40 $80,000
$30 $60,000
$20 $40,000
$10 $20,000
$0 $0
Deal Value ($Bn) [LHS] M&A $/Boed
Source: PLS, Company Data, Evercore ISI Research
32
Evercore ISI and Consensus Estimates
Figure 92: Cash Flow per Share - EVR ISI vs consensus estimates
Large-Caps 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017a 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018e
APA $1.71 $1.68 $1.62 $1.95 $6.96 $1.95 $2.43 $2.30 $2.65 $9.33
Consensus $1.71 $1.68 $1.62 $1.95 $6.96 $1.95 $2.43 $2.49 $2.58 $9.46
Difference ($0.20) $0.07 ($0.13)
APC $1.45 $2.22 $1.25 $2.64 $7.56 $2.68 $2.85 $2.99 $3.36 $11.87
Consensus $1.45 $2.22 $1.25 $2.64 $7.56 $2.68 $2.85 $3.44 $3.71 $12.67
Difference ($0.45) ($0.35) ($0.80)
CHK $0.42 $0.32 $0.36 $0.54 $1.64 $0.55 $0.47 $0.42 $0.36 $1.79
Consensus $0.42 $0.32 $0.36 $0.54 $1.64 $0.55 $0.47 $0.45 $0.41 $1.88
Difference ($0.03) ($0.06) ($0.09)
DVN $1.46 $1.26 $1.38 $1.52 $5.62 $1.44 $1.13 $1.61 $1.90 $6.08
Consensus $1.46 $1.26 $1.38 $1.52 $5.62 $1.44 $1.13 $1.52 $1.73 $5.82
Difference $0.09 $0.17 $0.26
ECA $0.29 $0.36 $0.28 $0.46 $1.38 $0.41 $0.61 $0.38 $0.92 $2.32
Consensus $0.28 $0.35 $0.28 $0.45 $1.37 $0.41 $0.61 $0.51 $0.65 $2.19
Difference ($0.13) $0.26 $0.13
EOG $1.84 $1.80 $1.96 $2.66 $8.26 $3.01 $3.47 $3.34 $3.89 $13.70
Consensus $1.84 $1.80 $1.96 $2.93 $8.52 $3.01 $3.47 $3.59 $3.68 $13.75
Difference ($0.26) $0.21 ($0.05)
NBL $1.14 $1.03 $1.00 $1.39 $4.56 $1.16 $1.24 $1.25 $1.30 $4.96
Consensus $1.14 $1.03 $1.00 $1.39 $4.56 $1.16 $1.24 $1.34 $1.39 $5.13
Difference ($0.09) ($0.08) ($0.17)
Oil Growth 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017a 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018e
CPE $0.26 $0.27 $0.29 $0.42 $1.24 $0.44 $0.47 $0.43 $0.53 $1.87
Consensus $0.26 $0.27 $0.29 $0.42 $1.24 $0.44 $0.47 $0.46 $0.55 $1.92
Difference ($0.03) ($0.02) ($0.06)
PXD $2.72 $2.59 $3.04 $4.37 $12.72 $4.54 $4.43 $4.57 $4.34 $17.88
Consensus $2.72 $2.59 $3.04 $4.37 $12.72 $4.54 $4.43 $4.70 $5.02 $18.68
Difference ($0.13) ($0.68) ($0.81)
CXO $2.75 $2.81 $2.87 $3.27 $11.69 $3.58 $3.81 $3.27 $3.32 $13.97
Consensus $2.75 $2.81 $2.87 $3.27 $11.69 $3.58 $3.81 $3.47 $3.88 $14.74
Difference ($0.21) ($0.56) ($0.77)
XEC $2.78 $2.85 $2.89 $3.67 $12.20 $3.88 $3.61 $3.30 $4.07 $14.86
Consensus $2.78 $2.85 $2.89 $3.67 $12.20 $3.88 $3.61 $3.59 $4.24 $15.32
Difference ($0.29) ($0.17) ($0.46)
CLR $1.12 $1.11 $1.30 $2.09 $5.62 $2.15 $2.19 $1.98 $2.51 $8.83
Consensus $1.12 $1.11 $1.30 $2.09 $5.62 $2.15 $2.19 $2.36 $2.58 $9.27
Difference ($0.38) ($0.07) ($0.45)
MTDR $0.63 $0.66 $0.84 $1.01 $3.14 $1.10 $1.15 $1.03 $1.08 $4.36
Consensus $0.63 $0.66 $0.84 $1.01 $3.14 $1.10 $1.15 $1.09 $1.10 $4.44
Difference ($0.07) ($0.02) ($0.09)
OAS $0.50 $0.45 $0.57 $0.81 $2.34 $0.73 $0.67 $0.68 $0.78 $2.85
Consensus $0.50 $0.45 $0.57 $0.81 $2.34 $0.73 $0.67 $0.71 $0.76 $2.86
Difference ($0.03) $0.02 ($0.01)
WLL $1.99 $1.48 $1.68 $2.69 $7.85 $3.00 $2.91 $2.71 $3.01 $11.63
Consensus $1.99 $1.48 $1.68 $2.69 $7.85 $3.00 $2.91 $3.10 $3.30 $12.31
Difference ($0.39) ($0.29) ($0.68)
JAG $0.12 $0.18 $0.25 $0.36 $0.92 $0.39 $0.54 $0.48 $0.51 $1.91
Consensus $0.12 $0.18 $0.25 $0.36 $0.92 $0.39 $0.54 $0.48 $0.50 $1.91
Difference ($0.00) $0.01 $0.00
EGN $1.00 $1.40 $1.70 $2.87 $6.98 $2.50 $2.38 $2.54 $2.89 $10.31
Consensus $1.00 $1.40 $1.70 $2.87 $6.98 $2.50 $2.38 $2.55 $2.87 $10.30
Difference ($0.00) $0.01 $0.01
FANG $1.91 $2.17 $2.34 $2.78 $9.20 $3.37 $4.31 $3.03 $3.67 $14.37
Consensus $1.91 $2.17 $2.34 $2.78 $9.20 $3.37 $4.31 $3.70 $3.93 $15.30
Difference ($0.67) ($0.26) ($0.93)
PE $0.51 $0.57 $0.52 $0.62 $2.21 $0.86 $1.11 $1.06 $1.26 $4.28
Consensus $0.51 $0.57 $0.52 $0.62 $2.21 $0.86 $1.11 $1.10 $1.18 $4.25
Difference ($0.04) $0.08 $0.03
Natural Gas Growth & Diversified 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017a 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018e
AR $0.92 $0.78 $1.75 $1.13 $4.58 $1.45 $1.05 $1.24 $1.55 $5.29
Consensus $0.92 $0.78 $1.75 $1.13 $4.58 $1.45 $1.05 $1.28 $1.53 $5.31
Difference ($0.04) $0.02 ($0.02)
BRY NA NA NA NA NA $0.82 $0.26 $0.81 $0.93 $2.82
Consensus NA NA NA NA NA $0.82 $0.26 $0.92 $1.01 $3.01
Difference ($0.11) ($0.07) ($0.19)
COG $0.59 $0.55 $0.45 $0.51 $2.09 $0.61 $0.44 $0.67 $0.88 $2.61
Consensus $0.59 $0.55 $0.45 $0.51 $2.09 $0.60 $0.44 $0.60 $0.78 $2.42
Difference $0.07 $0.10 $0.18
CRC $2.63 $0.84 $1.91 $1.65 $7.03 $3.70 $2.76 $5.43 $5.97 $17.85
Consensus $2.63 $0.84 $1.91 $1.65 $7.03 $3.70 $2.76 $3.29 $3.14 $12.88
Difference $2.14 $2.83 $4.97
EQT $2.29 $1.66 $1.65 $2.73 $8.32 $3.29 $2.64 $3.01 $3.56 $12.50
Consensus $2.29 $1.66 $1.65 $2.73 $8.32 $3.29 $2.64 $2.74 $2.99 $11.67
Difference $0.27 $0.57 $0.83
RRC $1.04 $0.78 $0.80 $1.06 $3.68 $1.31 $0.92 $0.91 $1.08 $4.22
Consensus $1.04 $0.78 $0.80 $1.06 $3.68 $1.31 $0.92 $0.97 $1.05 $4.25
Difference ($0.06) $0.03 ($0.03)
SWN $0.58 $0.47 $0.45 $0.57 $2.06 $0.60 $0.46 $0.44 $0.55 $2.05
Consensus $0.58 $0.47 $0.45 $0.57 $2.06 $0.60 $0.46 $0.50 $0.52 $2.08
Difference ($0.06) $0.03 ($0.03)
NFX $1.21 $1.05 $1.17 $1.55 $4.98 $1.57 $1.88 $1.88 $2.06 $7.38
Consensus $1.21 $1.05 $1.17 $1.55 $4.98 $1.57 $1.88 $1.79 $1.88 $7.12
Difference $0.09 $0.18 $0.27
QEP $0.71 $0.64 $0.65 $0.58 $2.58 $0.56 $0.82 $0.99 $0.95 $3.32
Consensus $0.71 $0.64 $0.65 $0.58 $2.58 $0.56 $0.82 $0.97 $0.90 $3.24
Difference $0.02 $0.06 $0.08
WPX $0.22 $0.28 $0.42 $0.50 $1.42 $0.45 $0.63 $0.62 $0.71 $2.41
Consensus $0.22 $0.28 $0.42 $0.50 $1.42 $0.45 $0.63 $0.66 $0.76 $2.50
Difference ($0.04) ($0.05) ($0.09)
Canadian Senior (C$) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017a 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018e
SU-TSE $1.21 $1.00 $1.52 $1.80 $5.53 $1.26 $1.71 $1.58 $2.26 $6.81
Consensus $1.21 $1.00 $1.52 $1.80 $5.53 $1.26 $1.71 $1.85 $2.04 $6.86
Difference ($0.27) $0.22 ($0.05)
CNQ-TSE $1.46 $1.47 $1.46 $1.82 $6.21 $1.88 $2.19 $1.41 $1.97 $7.45
Consensus $1.46 $1.47 $1.46 $1.82 $6.21 $1.88 $2.19 $2.16 $2.35 $8.58
Difference ($0.74) ($0.38) ($1.13)
Source: Company Data, FactSet, Evercore ISI Research
33
Figure 93: Production - EVR ISI vs consensus estimates
Large-Caps 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017a 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018e
APA 481 460 448 440 457 440 464 483 497 471
Consensus 481 460 448 440 457 440 464 473 496 468
Difference 9 1 3
APC 795 631 626 637 672 643 637 682 695 664
Consensus 795 631 626 637 672 643 637 682 710 668
Difference (0) (15) (4)
CHK 528 528 542 593 548 554 530 529 426 510
Consensus 528 528 542 593 548 554 530 528 442 513
Difference 1 (16) (3)
DVN 563 536 527 548 543 544 541 526 507 529
Consensus 563 536 527 548 543 544 541 534 548 540
ECA 318 316 284 335 313 324 338 375 420 364
Consensus 318 316 284 335 313 324 338 375 425 366
EOG 571 604 598 662 609 660 702 741 766 717
Consensus 571 604 598 662 609 660 702 737 772 718
NBL 382 408 355 380 381 370 346 342 346 351
Consensus 382 408 355 380 381 370 346 342 348 351
Difference 1 (2) 0
Oil Growth 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017a 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018e
CPE 20 22 23 27 23 27 29 33 41 32
Consensus 20 22 23 27 23 27 29 33 39 32
Difference 0 2 1
PXD 249 259 276 305 272 312 328 322 297 315
Consensus 249 259 276 305 272 312 328 317 322 318
CXO 181 185 193 211 193 228 229 284 310 263
Consensus 181 185 193 211 193 228 229 284 309 263
Difference (0) 1 (0)
XEC 177 193 191 201 190 206 211 217 232 217
Consensus 177 193 191 201 190 206 211 213 238 217
CLR 214 226 243 287 242 287 284 293 319 296
Consensus 214 226 243 287 243 287 284 296 314 295
Difference (3) 5 1
MTDR 33 37 42 44 39 45 53 52 54 51
Consensus 33 37 42 44 39 45 53 53 54 51
OAS 63 62 66 73 66 77 79 86 93 84
% Liquids 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Consensus 63 62 66 73 66 77 79 86 92 83
Difference 0 1 0
WLL 117 113 114 128 118 127 126 131 134 130
Consensus 117 113 114 128 118 127 126 130 136 130
JAG 10 15 19 24 17 28 35 35 36 33
Consensus 10 15 19 24 17 28 35 34 36 33
Difference 1 0 0
EGN 53 73 81 97 76 93 97 100 112 101
Consensus 53 73 81 97 76 93 97 101 113 101
FANG 62 77 85 93 79 103 113 122 208 136
Consensus 62 77 85 93 79 103 113 121 135 118
Difference 1 72 18
PE 55 65 72 80 68 93 108 114 121 109
Consensus 55 65 72 80 68 93 108 114 122 109
Natural Gas Growth & Diversified 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017a 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018e
AR 357 367 386 391 375 396 420 458 493 442
Consensus 357 367 386 391 376 396 420 455 502 444
BRY N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 26 26 28 30 28
Consensus N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 26 26 28 29 27
Difference (0) 0 0
COG 315 317 307 313 313 314 316 354 401 346
Consensus 315 317 307 313 313 314 316 359 406 349
CRC 132 129 128 126 129 123 134 136 137 132
Consensus 132 129 128 126 129 123 134 136 136 133
EQT 352 363 372 533 405 661 664 684 719 682
Consensus 352 363 372 533 405 661 664 680 728 685
NFX 146 150 162 170 157 177 187 193 195 188
Consensus 146 150 162 170 152 177 187 194 195 190
RRC 322 324 331 362 335 365 367 370 375 369
Consensus 322 324 331 362 335 365 367 371 380 370
SWN 378 407 420 431 409 419 429 451 439 434
Consensus 378 407 420 431 409 419 429 452 445 434
Difference (1) (6) 1
QEP 145 152 154 131 146 130 155 145 131 140
Consensus 145 152 154 131 146 130 155 147 133 141
WPX 90 106 112 131 110 103 125 130 141 125
Consensus 90 106 112 131 110 103 125 132 144 126
Canadian Senior (C$) 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017a 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018e
SU-TSE 725 541 740 736 685 689 662 730 869 738
Consensus 725 539 737 736 685 689 662 754 861 742
CNQ-TSE 877 913 1,037 1,020 962 1,124 1,050 1,056 1,172 1,101
ConsenCNQs 877 913 1,036 1,020 962 1,124 1,050 1,056 1,139 1,094
Difference (0) 33 6
Source: Company Data, FactSet, Evercore ISI Research
34
Figure 94: Equity YTD Performance Figure 95: Short Interest
CRC, 143%
BRY, 98% CPE, 11.8
WLL, 94% JAG, 11.0
OAS, 65%
MTDR, 8.7
EGN, 46%
AR, 8.5
WPX, 41%
RRC, 7.8
MRO, 34%
CLR, 26% OAS, 6.8
APC, 23% COG, 6.0
WTI, 19% NBL, 5.6
EOG, 17% EQT, 5.3
XOP, 13% CRC, 5.3
QEP, 13%
CLR, 5.1
CHK, 10%
CHK, 5.0
SP50, 8%
APA, 8%
FANG, 4.4
AVG, 7% WLL, 4.3
SU-TSE, 7% EOG, 4.3
FANG, 6% QEP, 4.0
MTDR, 5% XEC, 3.8
NBL, 3%
CXO, 3.5
PXD, 1%
NFX, 3.2
CXO, 1%
SWN, 3.1
NGAS, 0%
PE, -4% PE, 2.7
CPE, -4% SU-TSE, 2.7
ECA, -4% WPX, 2.4
XNG, -5% PXD, 2.3
RRC, -5% APC, 2.3
DVN, -5%
DVN, 1.8
CNQ-TSE, -8%
MRO, 1.5
AR, -10%
NFX, -12%
BRY, 1.1
JAG, -12% EGN, 1.1
SWN, -14% CNQ-TSE, 1.0
COG, -22% ECA, 1.0
EQT, -25%
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0
-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% Coverage Ratio (days)
Price Performance YTD
Source: FactSet, Evercore ISI Research Source: FactSet, Evercore ISI Research
35
Commodity Hedges
Figure 96: Oil Hedged by Operator 2018 Figure 97: Oil Hedged by Operator 2019
ECA CXO
PE
EGN
CXO
PXD CPE
CHK WPX
NFX
DVN
OAS
WPX NBL
CPE QEP
WLL
OAS
NBL
AR PE
QEP PXD
DVN
FANG
MRO
EGN MRO
Avg 54% XEC
APC
Avg 21%
FANG
XEC RRC
BRY CHK
EOG
WLL
RRC
APA NFX
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research
Figure 98: Natural Gas Hedged by Operator 2018 Figure 99: Natural Gas Hedged by Operator 2019
AR
AR
ECA
WPX
SWN ECA
RRC
CHK SWN
CLR
QEP RRC
NFX
DVN DVN
EQT
APC
QEP
Avg 42%
PXD
EQT
CPE
CXO
FANG WPX 24%
APA
EGN Avg
PE
NBL CHK
COG
XEC CPE
EOG
BRY
CXO
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research
36
Figure 100: E&P Coverage Oil Hedge Summary
2017 2018 2019 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
Apache Corporation APA
% Hedged (total liquids production) 16% 15% - 27% 21% 22% 22% - - - -
Crude oil hedged volume (mmbbl) 16.8 17.0 - 7.1 5.8 6.4 6.4 - - - -
% Hedged (total crude production) 22% 19% - 33% 26% 28% 28% - - - -
Hedged Realization ($/bbl) $52.62 $54.79 - $57.25 $58.14 $63.29 $68.29 $61.00 $56.00 $66.00 $76.00
Swap Summary vol (mbpd) - 13.5 - 27.0 27.0 - - - - - -
Fixed price ($/bbl) - $52.71 - $52.71 $52.71 - - - - - -
Collar Summary vol (mbpd) - 13.5 - 27.0 27.0 - - - - - -
Ceiling price ($/bbl) - $57.48 - $57.48 $57.48 - - - - - -
Floor price ($/bbl) - $47.22 - $47.22 $47.22 - - - - - -
Hedge Price ($/bbl) - $57.48 - $57.48 $57.48 - - - - - -
Three-Way Collar vol (mbpd) - 4.6 - 18.5 - - - - - - -
Ceiling price ($/bbl) - $60.03 - $60.03 - - - - - - -
Floor price ($/bbl) - $57.00 - $57.00 - - - - - - -
Short Put Price ($/bbl) - $45.00 - $45.00 - - - - - - -
Hedge Price ($/bbl) - $60.03 - $60.03 - - - - - - -
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation APC
% Hedged (total liquids production) 20% 40% - 41% 42% 39% 38% 17% 17% 16% 16%
Crude oil hedged volume (mmbbl) 33.2 70.1 - 17.3 17.5 17.7 17.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 8.0
% Hedged (total crude production) 26% 50% - 52% 53% 49% 48% 21% 21% 21% 21%
Three-Way Collar vol - Brent (mbpd) 23.0 - - - - - - 30.0 30.0 30.0 30.0
Ceiling price ($/bbl) $62.64 - - - - - - $78.22 $78.22 $78.22 $78.22
Floor price ($/bbl) $50.00 - - - - - - $60.00 $60.00 $60.00 $60.00
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $40.00 - - - - - - $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00
Three-Way Collar vol - NYMEX (mbpd) 68.0 - - - - - - 57.0 57.0 57.0 57.0
Ceiling price ($/bbl) $58.84 - - - - - - $70.22 $70.22 $70.22 $70.22
Floor price ($/bbl) $50.00 - - - - - - $55.00 $55.00 $55.00 $55.00
Short Put Price ($/bbl) $40.00 - - - - - - $45.00 $45.00 $45.00 $45.00
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $51.74 - - - - - - $61.00 $56.00 $66.00 $70.22
Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK
% Hedged (total liquids production) 43% 52% 8% - - - - - - - -
Crude oil hedged volume (mmbbl) 23.0 26.3 3.7 - - - - - - - -
% Hedged (total crude production) 70% 82% 11% - - - - - - - -
Hedged Realization ($/bbl) $38.10 $49.81 $59.44 - - - - - - - -
Swap Summary vol (mbpd) 63.0 67.2 10.1 - - - - - - - -
Fixed price ($/bbl) $50.19 $53.36 $59.44 - - - - - - - -
Callon Petroleum CPE
Crude oil hedged volume (mmbbl) 4.7 6.5 5.3 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.8 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4
Daily hedged volume (mbpd) 12.8 17.7 14.5 16.2 15.5 19.5 19.5 14.0 14.0 15.0 15.0
% Hedged (total crude production) 71% 71% 42% 79% 71% 77% 62% 44% 42% 43% 40%
Hedged Realization ($/bbl) $50.50 $58.35 $63.48 $57.71 $57.78 $58.77 $58.93 $62.43 $59.20 $64.47 $67.80
Swap Summary vol (mbpd) 3.0 5.6 - 5.6 5.0 6.0 6.0 - - - -
Fixed price ($/bbl) $49.13 $51.85 - $51.78 $51.42 $52.07 $52.07 - - - -
Collar Summary vol (mbpd) 3.7 1.0 - 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 - - - -
Ceiling price ($/bbl) $58.19 $60.44 - $60.50 $60.25 $60.50 $60.50 - - - -
Floor price ($/bbl) $47.50 $50.00 - $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 - - - -
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $50.81 $60.44 - $60.50 $60.25 $60.50 $60.50 - - - -
Three-Way Collar vol (mbpd) - 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.5 9.0 9.0 10.0 10.0
Ceiling price ($/bbl) - $60.86 $63.70 $60.86 $60.86 $60.86 $60.86 $63.71 $63.71 $63.70 $63.70
Floor price ($/bbl) - $48.95 $53.94 $48.95 $48.95 $48.95 $48.95 $53.89 $53.89 $54.00 $54.00
Short Put Price ($/bbl) - $39.21 $43.95 $39.21 $39.21 $39.21 $39.21 $43.89 $43.89 $44.00 $44.00
Hedge Price ($/bbl) - $60.86 $61.10 $60.86 $60.86 $60.86 $60.86 $61.00 $56.00 $63.70 $63.70
Put vol (mbpd) 1.0 1.5 5.0 - - 3.0 3.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0
Fixed price ($/bbl) $50.00 $65.00 $65.00 - - $65.00 $65.00 $65.00 $65.00 $65.00 $65.00
Hedge price ($/bbl) $49.34 $65.50 $68.00 - - $65.00 $66.00 $65.00 $65.00 $66.00 $76.00
Concho Resources Inc. CXO
Swap Summary vol (mbpd) 97.3 128.0 105.3 122.7 125.9 136.7 126.8 105.3 105.3 105.3 105.3
Fixed price ($/bbl) $53.72 $55.27 $55.48 $53.01 $54.50 $56.76 $56.63 $55.48 $55.48 $55.48 $55.48
Collar Summary vol (mbpd) - 6.2 12.9 - - 13.2 11.5 12.9 12.9 12.9 12.9
Ceiling price ($/bbl) - $60.10 $63.83 - - $60.10 $60.11 $63.83 $63.83 $63.83 $63.83
Floor price ($/bbl) - $46.42 $55.96 - - $46.33 $46.52 $55.96 $55.96 $55.96 $55.96
Hedge Price ($/bbl) - $60.10 $61.17 - - $60.10 $60.11 $61.00 $56.00 $63.83 $63.83
Three-Way Collar vol (mbpd) - 6.9 - - - 14.3 13.3 - - - -
Ceiling price ($/bbl) - $60.75 - - - $60.56 $60.96 - - - -
Floor price ($/bbl) - $47.89 - - - $47.79 $48.00 - - - -
Short Put Price ($/bbl) - $37.89 - - - $37.79 $38.00 - - - -
Hedge Price ($/bbl) - $60.75 - - - $60.56 $60.96 - - - -
37
Figure 101: E&P Coverage Oil Hedge Summary (cont’d)
2017 2018 2019 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
Devon Energy Corporation DVN
% Hedged (total liquids production) 42% 46% 29% 29% 48% 53% 51% 30% 29% 30% 28%
Fixed price ($/bbl) $54.13 $56.58 $58.95 $52.13 $56.25 $57.96 $57.96 $58.95 $58.95 $58.95 $58.95
Collar Summary vol (mbpd) 67.4 86.3 65.8 51.9 92.9 100.2 100.2 65.8 65.8 65.8 65.8
Ceiling price ($/bbl) $57.65 $61.44 $62.60 $56.06 $61.45 $62.83 $62.83 $62.60 $62.60 $62.60 $62.60
Floor price ($/bbl) $45.69 $50.98 $52.60 $46.06 $51.02 $52.23 $52.23 $52.60 $52.60 $52.60 $52.60
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $51.09 $60.91 $60.55 $56.06 $61.45 $61.00 $62.83 $61.00 $56.00 $62.60 $62.60
Encana Corporation ECA
Fixed price ($/bbl) $51.87 $54.16 $61.03 $53.28 $55.53 $53.56 $54.19 $61.46 $61.46 $60.31 $60.31
Floor price ($/bbl) $46.22 $45.00 - $45.00 $45.00 $45.00 $45.00 - - - -
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $51.70 $57.08 - $57.08 $57.08 $57.08 $57.08 - - - -
Three-Way Collar vol (mbpd) 21.3 16.0 42.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 42.0 42.0 42.0 42.0
Floor price ($/bbl) $49.84 $47.17 $59.11 $47.17 $47.17 $47.17 $47.17 $59.11 $59.11 $59.11 $59.11
Short Put Price ($/bbl) $39.28 $36.88 $48.21 $36.88 $36.88 $36.88 $36.88 $48.21 $48.21 $48.21 $48.21
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $51.57 $54.49 $63.62 $54.49 $54.49 $54.49 $54.49 $61.00 $59.11 $66.00 $68.38
Energen Corporation EGN
Swap Summary vol (mbpd) 16.4 3.8 20.7 - 4.0 5.2 5.9 21.0 20.8 20.5 20.5
Fixed price ($/bbl) $49.77 $60.24 $61.14 - $60.17 $60.28 $60.25 $61.14 $61.14 $61.14 $61.14
Floor price ($/bbl) $45.00 $45.47 $45.94 $45.47 $45.47 $45.47 $45.47 $45.94 $45.94 $45.94 $45.94
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $50.81 $60.04 $60.08 $60.04 $60.04 $60.04 $60.04 $61.00 $56.00 $61.65 $61.65
EOG Resources, Inc. EOG
% Hedged (total liquids production) 4% 26% - - - - - - - - -
Crude oil hedged volume (mmbbl) 6.4 48.9 - - - - - - - - -
% Hedged (total crude production) 5% 34% - - - - - - - - -
Hedged Realization ($/bbl) $50.04 $60.04 - - - - - - - - -
Swap Summary vol (mbpd) 17.5 134.0 - - - - - - - - -
Fixed price ($/bbl) $50.04 $60.04 - - - - - - - - -
Diamondback Energy FANG
Fixed price ($/bbl) $52.82 $53.90 $60.60 $51.70 $51.90 $54.27 $56.60 $61.67 $60.13 $60.08 $60.21
Collar Summary vol (mbpd) 15.5 1.5 - 6.0 - - - - - - -
Ceiling price ($/bbl) $55.80 $56.34 - $56.34 - - - - - - -
Floor price ($/bbl) $46.45 $47.00 - $47.00 - - - - - - -
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $51.01 $56.34 - $56.34 - - - - - - -
Three-Way Collar vol (mbpd) - - 5.0 - - - - 10.0 10.0 - -
Ceiling price ($/bbl) - - $70.24 - - - - $70.76 $69.71 - -
Floor price ($/bbl) - - $55.00 - - - - $55.00 $55.00 - -
Short Put Price ($/bbl) - - $45.00 - - - - $45.00 $45.00 - -
Hedge Price ($/bbl) - - $58.50 - - - - $61.00 $56.00 - -
Marathon Oil Corporation MRO
Call Volume (mbpd) 35.0 - - - - - - - - - -
Fixed price ($/bbl) $61.91 - - - - - - - - - -
Hedge price ($/bbl) $50.81 - - - - - - - - - -
38
2017 2018 2019 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
Noble Energy, Inc. NBL
Fixed price ($/bbl) $53.61 $59.76 $58.23 $57.24 $59.72 $60.26 $60.26 $58.23 $58.23 $58.23 $58.23
Floor price ($/bbl) $40.69 $50.38 - $50.38 $50.38 $50.38 $50.38 - - - -
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $49.90 $58.46 - $58.46 $58.46 $58.46 $58.46 - - - -
Floor price ($/bbl) $47.71 $52.50 $60.00 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $60.00 $60.00 $60.00 $60.00
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $50.81 $64.46 $64.94 $62.89 $67.93 $61.00 $66.00 $61.00 $60.00 $66.00 $72.75
Oasis Petroleum Inc. OAS
Fixed price ($/bbl) $49.30 $52.77 $53.47 $52.31 $52.80 $53.00 $53.00 $53.47 $53.47 $53.47 $53.47
Floor price ($/bbl) $45.65 $48.67 $52.50 $48.67 $48.67 $48.67 $48.67 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50 $52.50
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $50.29 $53.07 $63.56 $53.07 $53.07 $53.07 $53.07 $61.00 $56.00 $66.00 $71.25
Three-Way Collar vol (mbpd) 4.5 - 10.0 - - - - 11.0 11.0 9.0 9.0
Ceiling price ($/bbl) $59.94 - $68.62 - - - - $69.29 $69.29 $67.80 $67.80
Floor price ($/bbl) $45.83 - $51.00 - - - - $51.36 $51.36 $50.56 $50.56
Short Put Price ($/bbl) $31.67 - $40.50 - - - - $40.91 $40.91 $40.00 $40.00
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $50.52 - $62.28 - - - - $61.00 $56.00 $66.00 $67.80
Newfield Exploration Company NFX
% Hedged (total liquids production) 59% 47% - 55% 49% 49% 37% 29% 26% 20% 13%
Crude oil hedged volume (mmbbl) 21.1 20.7 - 5.4 5.6 5.5 4.2 3.3 3.0 2.5 1.7
% Hedged (total crude production) 88% 72% - 80% 74% 76% 58% 46% 41% 32% 21%
Swap Summary vol (mbpd) 34.1 37.0 - 9.0 47.0 63.5 28.5 - - - -
Fixed price ($/bbl) $53.44 $55.68 - $52.56 $54.90 $56.59 $55.92 - - - -
Collar Summary vol (mbpd) - 3.5 - - 14.0 - - - - - -
Ceiling price ($/bbl) - $56.70 - - $56.70 - - - - - -
Floor price ($/bbl) - $50.59 - - $50.59 - - - - - -
Hedge Price ($/bbl) - $56.70 - - $56.70 - - - - - -
Three-Way Collar vol (mbpd) 5.8 18.0 - 51.0 - - 21.0 36.5 33.5 27.0 19.0
Ceiling price ($/bbl) $95.59 $56.41 - $56.33 - - $56.60 $57.02 $57.04 $57.26 $57.32
Floor price ($/bbl) $90.00 $48.69 - $48.84 - - $48.34 $50.53 $50.51 $50.69 $50.71
Short Put Price ($/bbl) $75.00 $39.68 - $39.76 - - $39.47 $40.47 $40.48 $40.80 $40.82
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $65.16 $56.41 - $56.33 - - $56.60 $57.02 $56.00 $57.26 $57.32
Parsley Energy PE
Swap Summary vol (mbpd) 0.6 - - - - - - - - - -
Fixed price ($/bbl) $54.37 - - - - - - - - - -
Collar Summary vol (mbpd) 2.4 2.3 - - 3.0 3.0 3.0 - - - -
Ceiling price ($/bbl) $59.27 $61.31 - - $61.31 $61.31 $61.31 - - - -
Floor price ($/bbl) $46.79 $45.67 - - $45.67 $45.67 $45.67 - - - -
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $51.14 $61.21 - - $61.31 $61.00 $61.31 - - - -
Three-Way Collar vol (mbpd) - 38.7 9.0 43.3 49.5 31.0 31.0 8.3 8.2 9.8 9.8
Ceiling price ($/bbl) - $70.45 $80.36 $65.67 $68.11 $75.65 $75.65 $80.40 $80.40 $80.33 $80.33
Floor price ($/bbl) - $50.22 $50.45 $50.77 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.00 $50.83 $50.83
Short Put Price ($/bbl) - $40.05 $40.45 $40.19 $40.00 $40.00 $40.00 $40.00 $40.00 $40.83 $40.83
Hedge Price ($/bbl) - $64.75 $65.28 $62.89 $67.93 $61.00 $66.00 $61.00 $56.00 $66.00 $76.00
39
2017 2018 2019 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
Pioneer Natural Resources Company PXD
Swap Summary vol (mbpd) - - - - - - - - - - -
Fixed price ($/bbl) - - - - - - - - - - -
Floor price ($/bbl) $50.00 $45.00 - $45.00 $45.00 $45.00 $45.00 - - - -
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $51.74 $58.05 - $58.05 $58.05 $58.05 $58.05 - - - -
Floor price ($/bbl) $49.25 $47.36 $52.69 $47.42 $47.42 $47.34 $47.26 $52.69 $52.69 $52.69 $52.69
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $51.43 $57.72 $59.56 $57.79 $57.79 $57.70 $57.62 $60.74 $56.00 $60.74 $60.74
QEP Resources QEP
Fixed price ($/bbl) $51.48 $52.44 $52.66 $52.37 $52.48 $52.46 $52.46 $52.66 $52.66 $52.66 $52.66
Whiting Petroleum Corporation WLL
% Hedged (total liquids production) 47% 57% 9% 58% 58% 56% 55% 18% 18% - -
Crude oil hedged volume (mmbbl) 16.9 22.5 3.7 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 1.8 1.8 - -
Daily hedged volume (mbpd) 46.4 61.7 10.0 61.7 61.7 61.7 61.7 20.0 20.0 - -
% Hedged (total crude production) 58% 71% 11% 72% 73% 70% 69% 22% 22% - -
Hedged Realization ($/bbl) $51.31 $58.26 $58.50 $58.26 $58.26 $58.26 $58.26 $61.00 $56.00 - -
Swap Summary vol (mbpd) - 13.3 - 13.3 13.3 13.3 13.3 - - - -
Fixed price ($/bbl) - $61.74 - $61.74 $61.74 $61.74 $61.74 - - - -
Collar Summary vol (mbpd) 8.3 - 10.0 - - - - 20.0 20.0 - -
Ceiling price ($/bbl) $70.44 - $71.80 - - - - $71.80 $71.80 - -
Floor price ($/bbl) $53.00 - $50.00 - - - - $50.00 $50.00 - -
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $53.56 - $58.50 - - - - $61.00 $56.00 - -
Three-Way Collar vol (mbpd) 38.1 48.3 - 48.3 48.3 48.3 48.3 - - - -
Floor price ($/bbl) $45.10 $47.07 - $47.07 $47.07 $47.07 $47.07 - - - -
Short Put Price ($/bbl) $34.88 $37.07 - $37.07 $37.07 $37.07 $37.07 - - - -
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $50.82 $57.30 - $57.30 $57.30 $57.30 $57.30 - - - -
WPX Energy, Inc. Class A WPX
Fixed price ($/bbl) $50.52 $52.80 $53.49 $52.72 $52.82 $52.82 $52.82 $53.49 $53.49 $53.49 $53.49
Cimarex Energy Co. XEC
Floor price ($/bbl) $44.90 $49.04 $53.60 $47.28 $47.97 $49.80 $51.03 $51.83 $51.83 $53.50 $57.00
Hedge Price ($/bbl) $50.62 $59.27 $62.68 $56.33 $58.35 $60.49 $61.74 $63.77 $63.08 $62.37 $61.62
Range Resources Corporation RRC
Crude hedged volume (mmbbl) 2.8 3.3 2.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6
Fixed price ($/bbl) $56.20 $53.30 $54.57 $53.42 $53.35 $53.20 $53.20 $54.57 $54.57 $54.57 $54.57
Berry Petroleum Corp BRY
Crude hedged volume (mmbbl) 0.0 3.3 0.0 0.0 1.4 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
% Hedged (total liquids production) NM 40% 0% 0% 70% 46% 44% 40% 38% 36% 34%
% Hedged (total crude production) NM 41% 0% 0% 71% 46% 45% 41% 39% 36% 34%
Swap Summary vol (mbpd) - 9.1 - - 15.4 10.5 10.5 2.4 2.5 2.5 2.4
Fixed price ($/bbl) - $65.37 - - $52.04 $75.13 $75.13 $75.66 $75.66 $75.66 $75.66
40
Figure 104: E&P Coverage Natural Gas Hedge Summary
2017 2018 2019 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
Apache Corporation APA
Total hedged volume (bcf) 6.2 89.7 0.0 16.5 39.6 16.8 16.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
% Hedged (total gas production) 2% 25% 0% 21% 47% 18% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hedged realization ($/mcf) $3.36 $2.69 $0.00 $2.96 $2.85 $2.28 $2.43 $3.15 $2.85 $2.90 $3.10
Hedge Impact ($ millions) 2.5 13.0 0.0 4.8 10.4 0.2 (2.4) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Swap Summary (vol (mmcf/d) 16.9 245.8 0.0 183.3 435.0 182.5 182.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hedge price ($/mcf) $3.4 $2.7 $0.0 $3.0 $2.9 $2.3 $2.4 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Anadarko Petroleum Corporation APC
Three-Way Collar Summary
Volume (mmcfpd) 769.5 250.0 0.0 250.0 250.0 250.0 250.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ceiling price ($/mcf) $3.62 $3.62 $0.00 $3.54 $3.54 $3.54 $3.54 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Floor price ($/mcf) $2.81 $2.81 $0.00 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Short Put Price ($/mcf) $2.06 $2.06 $0.00 $2.00 $2.00 $2.00 $2.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $2.96 $3.02 $0.00 $3.00 $2.80 $2.95 $3.10 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Chesapeake Energy Corporation CHK
Hedged realization ($/mcf) 2.8 2.8 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Swap Summary (vol (mmcf/d) 1,706.3 1,459.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hedge price ($/mcf) $3.05 $3.11 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Collar Summary vol (mmcf/d) 129.1 128.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Floor price ($/mcf) $3.13 $3.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $3.28 $3.03 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Callon Petroleum CPE
Hedged realization ($/mcf) 3.2 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0
Hedge price ($/mcf) $3.39 $2.92 $0.00 $2.95 $2.91 $2.91 $2.91 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Devon Energy Corporation DVN
Hedge Impact ($ millions) 216.1 107.0 (16.3) 11.2 0.3 (5.1) (7.5) (0.7) (1.6) (6.2) (7.8)
Hedge price ($/mcf) $3.20 $2.97 $2.81 $3.06 $2.96 $2.91 $2.91 $2.81 $2.81 $2.81 $2.81
Floor price ($/mcf) $3.01 $2.80 $2.64 $2.94 $2.77 $2.76 $2.76 $2.64 $2.64 $2.64 $2.64
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $3.06 $3.03 $2.95 $2.94 $2.95 $3.09 $3.09 $2.85 $2.90 $3.03 $3.03
EOG Resources, Inc. EOG
Hedge Impact ($ millions) 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hedge price ($/mcf) $3.10 $3.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Collar Summary
Volume (mmcfpd) 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Floor price ($/mcf) $3.20 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $3.21 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Encana Corporation ECA
Hedge Impact ($ millions) 27.7 23.4 67.3 4.2 20.2 7.0 (8.0) 18.5 53.1 6.4 (10.7)
Swap Summary (vol (mmcf/d) 391.3 962.0 699.0 673.0 1,007.0 1,084.0 1,084.0 699.0 699.0 699.0 699.0
Hedge price ($/mcf) $3.12 $3.03 $2.72 $3.07 $3.02 $3.02 $3.02 $2.72 $2.72 $2.72 $2.72
Floor price ($/mcf) $1.82 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $1.84 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Three-Way Collar Summary vol (mmcfd) 300.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Floor price ($/mcf) $2.75 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $2.92 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
41
Figure 105: E&P Coverage Natural Gas Hedge Summary (cont’d)
2017 2018 2019 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
Marathon Oil Corporation MRO
Hedge price ($/mcf) 2.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Collar Summary
Volume (mmcfpd) 0.0 0.0 0.0 200.0 160.0 160.0 160.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Floor price ($/mcf) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.08 $3.00 $3.00 $3.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $3.08 $3.00 $3.00 $3.10 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Noble Energy, Inc. NBL
Hedge Impact ($ millions) ($0.6) $0.9 $0.0 $0.0 $0.9 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0 $0.0
Hedge price ($/mcf) $2.92 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Floor price ($/mcf) $2.93 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $3.04 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Floor price ($/mcf) $2.94 $2.88 $0.00 $2.88 $2.88 $2.88 $2.88 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $3.07 $2.98 $0.00 $3.00 $2.88 $2.95 $3.10 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Continental Resources, Inc. CLR
Hedge Impact ($ millions) 28.0 (10.5) 0.0 1.8 4.6 (4.1) (12.8) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hedge price ($/mcf) $3.39 $2.89 $0.00 $3.28 $2.88 $2.88 $2.88 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Floor price ($/mcf) $2.48 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $2.97 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Concho Resources Inc. CXO
Hedge Impact ($ millions) (0.5) 4.4 (5.5) 0.9 4.2 1.2 (1.8) (2.4) (0.3) (0.6) (2.1)
Hedge price ($/mcf) $3.09 $3.02 $2.81 $3.05 $3.03 $3.01 $3.00 $2.81 $2.81 $2.81 $2.81
Energen Corporation EGN
Hedge Impact ($ millions) 3.9 (7.4) 0.0 0.5 (2.2) (2.6) (3.1) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hedge price ($/mcf) $3.29 $2.14 $0.00 $3.56 $1.98 $1.98 $1.98 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Collar Summary
Oasis Petroleum Inc. OAS
Hedge Impact ($ millions) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 (0.3) (0.1) 0.1 0.0 0.0
Swap Summary
Volume (mmcfpd) 0.0 28.9 3.7 22.7 23.0 35.0 35.0 7.5 7.5 0.0 0.0
Hedge price ($/mcf) 0.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0
42
2017 2018 2019 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
Pioneer Natural Resources Company PXD
Hedge Impact ($ millions) 0.7 5.0 0.0 3.6 1.8 0.5 (0.9) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hedge price ($/mcf) $0.00 $3.07 $0.00 $3.41 $3.00 $3.00 $3.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Floor price ($/mcf) $2.95 $2.91 $0.00 $3.15 $2.75 $2.75 $2.75 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $3.09 $3.03 $0.00 $3.15 $2.80 $2.95 $3.10 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Cimarex Energy Co. XEC
Hedge Impact ($ millions) 7.5 2.5 0.0 (2.1) (5.0) (13.1) (12.1) (13.0) (7.8) (7.9) (4.6)
Hedge price ($/mcf) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Collar Summary
Volume (mmcfpd) 215.7 220.0 0.0 220.0 230.0 240.0 190.0 170.0 170.0 120.0 60.0
Floor price ($/mcf) $2.58 $2.21 $0.00 $2.55 $2.26 $2.04 $1.95 $1.89 $1.89 $1.70 $1.63
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $3.02 $2.50 $0.00 $2.89 $2.56 $2.30 $2.21 $2.16 $2.15 $1.98 $1.94
Parsley Energy PE
Hedge price ($/mcf) 3.4 3.5 0.0 3.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Three-Way Collar Summary 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Volume (mmcfpd) 15.6 14.9 0.0 35.0 8.2 8.2 8.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ceiling price ($/mcf) 4.0 4.1 0.0 4.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Floor price ($/mcf) 2.8 3.1 0.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Short Put Price ($/mcf) 2.4 2.7 0.0 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hedge Price ($/mcf) 3.1 3.1 0.0 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Antero Resources Corporation AR
Swap Summary (vol (mmcf/d) 1,737.5 2,002.5 2,330.0 2,002.5 2,002.5 2,002.5 2,002.5 2,330.0 2,330.0 2,330.0 2,330.0
Hedge price ($/mcf) $3.58 $3.50 $3.50 $3.60 $3.42 $3.45 $3.53 $3.50 $3.50 $3.50 $3.50
Cabot Oil & Gas Corporation COG
Hedge Impact ($ millions) 8.7 (0.2) 0.0 (0.8) 4.3 0.2 (4.0) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hedge price ($/mcf) $3.23 $2.93 $0.00 $2.93 $2.93 $2.93 $2.93 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Collar Summary
Volume (mmcfpd) 97.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Ceiling price ($/mcf) 3.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Floor price ($/mcf) 3.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hedge Price ($/mcf) 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
43
2017 2018 2019 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19
Range Resources Corporation RRC
Hedge Impact ($ millions) 50.0 48.2 (51.5) 42.8 18.1 3.7 (16.4) (24.0) (1.5) (5.4) (20.7)
Swap Summary (vol (mmcf/d) 727.1 1,247.7 832.5 1,100.8 1,170.0 1,346.8 1,373.3 832.5 832.5 832.5 832.5
Hedge price ($/mcf) $3.18 $3.07 $2.83 $3.41 $2.97 $2.98 $2.97 $2.83 $2.83 $2.83 $2.83
Floor price ($/mcf) $3.75 $4.05 $0.00 $3.40 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $3.75 $4.05 $0.00 $3.40 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Southwestern Energy Company SWN
Hedge Impact ($ millions) (11.7) 27.3 22.8 (1.3) 22.6 10.7 (4.7) (5.8) 14.2 10.1 (2.7)
Hedge price ($/mcf) $3.07 $2.97 $2.93 $2.98 $2.97 $2.96 $2.96 $2.93 $2.93 $2.93 $2.93
Collar Summary
Volume (mmcfpd) 283.2 41.9 147.2 80.6 22.0 32.6 32.6 147.2 147.2 147.2 147.2
Floor price ($/mcf) $2.94 $2.93 $2.80 $2.96 $2.90 $2.90 $2.90 $2.80 $2.80 $2.80 $2.80
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $3.11 $3.00 $2.93 $3.00 $2.90 $2.95 $3.10 $2.98 $2.85 $2.90 $2.98
Volume (mmcfpd) 348.6 773.2 369.4 758.3 780.2 777.2 777.2 369.4 369.4 369.4 369.4
Floor price ($/mcf) $2.97 $2.96 $2.93 $2.97 $2.93 $2.97 $2.97 $2.93 $2.93 $2.93 $2.93
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $3.11 $3.00 $3.03 $3.00 $2.93 $2.97 $3.10 $3.15 $2.93 $2.93 $3.10
Collar Summary
Volume (mmcfpd) 22.0 22.0 22.0 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3
Floor price ($/mcf) $3.35 $3.35 $3.35 $3.35 $3.35 $3.35 $3.35 $3.35 $3.35 $3.35 $3.35
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $3.42 $3.42 $3.42 $3.55 $3.55 $3.55 $3.55 $3.55 $3.55 $3.55 $3.55
Newfield Exploration Company NFX
Hedge Impact ($ millions) (11.8) 4.4 0.0 2.5 3.7 0.4 (2.2) (0.2) 0.1 0.0 (0.2)
Hedge price ($/mcf) $2.73 $2.98 $0.00 $3.00 $2.99 $2.97 $2.99 $2.91 $2.91 $2.91 $2.91
Floor price ($/mcf) $2.81 $3.08 $0.00 $3.14 $2.90 $2.90 $2.88 $3.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $3.07 $3.12 $0.00 $3.14 $2.90 $2.95 $3.10 $3.15 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
QEP Resources QEP
Hedge Impact ($ millions) (27.6) 2.2 (0.6) (0.3) 3.6 1.1 (2.2) (3.1) 0.1 (0.4) (2.6)
Hedge price ($/mcf) $2.74 $3.00 $2.86 $2.99 $3.00 $3.00 $3.00 $2.86 $2.86 $2.86 $2.86
Floor price ($/mcf) $2.50 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
Hedge Price ($/mcf) $3.19 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00 $0.00
WPX Energy, Inc. Class A WPX
Hedge Impact ($ millions) (5.4) 1.3 (2.3) (0.1) 2.2 0.5 (1.3) (1.2) 0.1 (0.1) (1.0)
Hedge price ($/mcf) $3.02 $2.99 $2.87 $2.99 $2.99 $2.99 $2.99 $2.87 $2.87 $2.87 $2.87
44
Evercore ISI and Consensus Estimates
Figure 108: CEO Ownership, Compensation & Change of Control
77% 74%
$17.3 $2.1 $0.4 $0.3
100.0 30%
90.0
25%
80.0
70.0
20%
% Insider Ownership
60.0
CEO Ownership ($M)
50.0 15%
40.0
10%
30.0
20.0
5%
10.0
0.0 0%
Company CLR HES PE AR CXO COG EOG CNQ-CAJAG PXD FANG XEC EQT NBL APC DVN OAS WPX EGN RRC SU-CAOXY MRO CHK QEP APA WLL COP NFX SWN CPE ECA
2017 CEO Awarded Comp ($M) $12.3 $13.5 $5.6 $9.9 $11.4 $12.4 $10.6 $7.1 $4.6 $10.9 $9.3 $11.1 $8.3 $7.9 $20.1 $14.2 $6.8 $9.1 $6.9 $6.5 $11.9 $14.6 $10.6 $11.1 $7.2 $20.5 $5.2 $25.0 $12.1 $8.7 $3.8 $9.8
Disclosed CEO Chg of Control ($M) $34.1 $25.6 $25.3 $13.9 $40.8 $40.7 $41.2 $16.1 N/A $21.5 $49.1 $39.2 $11.7 $13.8 $43.1 $41.6 $18.4 $24.3 $24.7 $11.7 $16.0 $22.4 $31.3 $25.8 $14.1 $28.6 $9.7 $53.0 $22.4 $15.5 $8.7 $59.0
Chg of Control / Annual Comp ratio 2.8 1.9 4.5 1.4 3.6 3.3 3.9 2.3 N/A 2.0 5.3 3.5 1.4 1.7 2.1 2.9 2.7 2.7 3.6 1.8 1.4 1.5 3.0 2.3 1.9 1.4 1.9 2.1 1.9 1.8 2.3 6.0
Figure 109: CEO Incentive Data by Category
Awarded CEO Disclosed CEO Disclosed CEO

E&Ps Compensation Ownership Change of Control
(2017) (Mkt Value) (2017)
Large Cap
APA John J. Christmann, IV, MBA $20.5 $10.1 $28.6
APC Robert A. Walker, MBA $20.1 $19.8 $43.1
CNQ-CA Laut Steve W* $7.1 $81.2 $16.1
COP Ryan M. Lance $25.0 $7.9 $53.0
DVN David A. Hager, MBA $14.2 $22.4 $41.6
EOG William R. Thomas $10.6 $83.9 $41.2
HES John B. Hess, MBA $13.5 $2,335.0 $25.6
MRO Lee M. Tillman, PhD $10.6 $15.2 $31.3
NBL David L. Stover $7.9 $22.1 $13.8
OXY Vicki A. Hollub $14.6 $13.7 $22.4
SU-CA Steven Walter Williams* $11.9 $17.0 $16.0
Average $14.4 $261.1 $31.7
Permian
CPE Joseph C. Gatto, Jr., MBA $3.8 $2.1 $8.7
CXO Timothy A. Leach, MBA $11.4 $115.3 $40.8
EGN James T. McManus, II, CPA $6.9 $24.5 $24.7
FANG Travis D. Stice $9.3 $37.7 $49.1
JAG Joseph N. Jaggers** $4.6 $68.8 N/A
PE Bryan Sheffield $5.6 $923.7 $25.3
PXD Timothy L. Dove, MBA $10.9 $48.7 $21.5
XEC Thomas E. Jorden $11.1 $32.7 $39.2
Average $8.4 $156.7 $29.9
Natural Gas
AR Paul M. Rady $9.9 $302.6 $13.9
COG Dan O. Dinges $12.4 $90.1 $40.7
EQT David L. Porges, MBA $8.3 $28.4 $11.7
RRC Jeffrey L. Ventura $6.5 $17.7 $11.7
SWN William J. Way, MBA $8.7 $3.0 $15.5
Average $9.2 $88.3 $18.7
Diversified Mid-Cap
CHK Robert Douglas Lawler, MBA $11.1 $13.4 $25.8
CLR Harold G. Hamm $12.3 $18,776.6 $34.1
ECA Douglas James Suttles $9.8 $1.1 $59.0
NFX Lee K. Boothby, MBA $12.1 $3.7 $22.4
OAS Thomas B. Nusz $6.8 $23.4 $18.4
QEP Charles B. Stanley $7.2 $9.9 $14.1
WLL Bradley J. Holly $5.2 $9.2 $9.7
WPX Richard E. Muncrief $9.1 $22.4 $24.3
Average $9.2 $2,357.4 $26.0
* Amounts were adjusted using 0.8 FX USD/CAD
**Joseph Jaggers retired from the CEO of JAG, PE’s CEO shares are inclusive of A and B type shares.
45
Company Changes Estimates
Rating Target Price Current Year Next Year
Symbol Company Price Curr Prev Curr Prev Curr Prev Curr Prev
CHK Chesapeake $4.49 - IL IL - $6.00 $6.00 - $0.74 $0.74 - $0.96 $0.96
Energy
EQT EQT $44.23 - OP OP - $60.00 $65.00 - ($2.11) ($2.11) - $8.14 $8.14
OAS Oasis $14.18 - IL IL - $16.00 $16.00 - $0.46 $0.46 - $0.99 $0.99
46
TIMESTAMP
(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)
Time of dissemination: September 30 2018 11:52
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The analysts, Daniel Walk, Daniel Juck, Eric Boyes, Stephen Richardson, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report attest to
the following: (1) that the views and opinions rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or
issuers; and (2) that no part of the research analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in
this research report.
DISCLOSURES
This report is approved and/or distributed by Evercore Group LLC ("Evercore Group"), a U.S. licensed broker-dealer regulated by the Financial
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In Line- the total forecasted return is expected to be in line with the expected total return of the analyst's universe
Underperform- the total forecasted return is expected to be less than the expected total return of the analyst's universe
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Historical Ratings Definitions
Prior to March 2, 2017, Evercore lSI's recommendations were based on a stock's total forecasted return over the next 12 months:
Buy- the total forecasted return is expected to be greater than 10%
47
Hold- the total forecasted return is expected to be greater than or equal to 0% and less than or equal to 10%
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Prior to October 10, 2014, the ratings system of lSI Group LLC and lSI UK which was based on a 12-month risk adjusted total return:
Strong Buy- Return > 20%
Buy- Return 10% to 20%
Neutral - Return 0% to 10%
Cautious- Return -10% to 0%
Sell- Return< -10%
For disclosure purposes, lSI Group and lSI UK ratings were viewed as follows: Strong Buy and Buy equate to Buy, Neutral equates to Hold, and
Cautious and Sell equate to Sell.
Evercore Group:
Prior to October 10, 2014, the rating system of Evercore Group was based on a stock's expected total return relative to the analyst's coverage
universe over the following 12 months. Stocks under coverage were divided into three categories:
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Equal-Weight- the stock is expected to perform in line with the average total return of the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months.
Underweight -the stock is expected to underperform the average total return of the analyst's coverage universe over the next 12 months.
Suspended- the company rating, target price and earnings estimates have been temporarily suspended.
For disclosure purposes, Evercore Group's prior "Overweight," "Equal-Weight" and "Underweight" ratings were viewed as "Buy," "Hold" and
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Long- the stock is a positive holding in the model portfolio; the total forecasted return is expected to be greater than 0%.
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Stocks included in the model portfolio will be weighted from 0 to 100% for Long and 0 to -100% for Short. A stock's weight in the portfolio reflects
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FlNRA requires that members who use a ratings system with terms other than "Buy," "Hold/Neutral" and "Sell," to equate their own
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Evercore lSI rating (as of 09/30/2018)
Coverage Universe Investment Banking Services I Past 12 Months

Ratings Count Pct. Ratings Count Pct.
Buy 294 45 Buy 184 63
Hold 295 45 Hold 159 54
Sell 36 5 Sell 20 56
Coverage 30 5 Coverage Suspended 18 60
Suspended Rating Suspended 0 0
Rating Suspended 4 1
Issuer-Specific Disclosures (as of September 30, 2018)
48
Evercore ISI or an affiliate expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from these subject companies
Chesapeake Energy and Oasis within the next three months.
Price Charts
Ratings Key
B Buy OP Outperform L Long CS Coverage Suspended
H Hold IL In Line NP No Position RS Rating Suspended
S Sell UP Underperform S Short
GENERAL DISCLOSURES
This report is approved and/or distributed by Evercore Group L.L.C. (“Evercore Group”), a U.S. licensed broker-dealer regulated by the Financial
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49
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© 2018. Evercore Group L.L.C. All rights reserved.
50

A Ray of Hope For The Asset Market: Energy - Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

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A Ray of Hope For The Asset Market: Energy - Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

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Energy | Oil & Gas Exploration & Production

September 30, 2018

Stephen Richardson A Ray of Hope for the Asset Market

focused on the 2019+ outlook. We like a combination of risked growth +

-4% $30 $45

A period of increased transactional activity likely emerges in a strengthened equity

Source: 1Derrick, Evercore ISI Research

$35,000 BRY 7/26/2018 IPO $14.00 13.0 - $183

CPE 5/25/2018 Follow-on $11.80 25.3 13% $299

$15,000 MTDR 10/5/2017 Follow-on $26.35 7.9 8% $209

FANG 8/10/2017 Follow-on $92.60 3.0 3% $278

8/7/2018 MTDR 5.875 9/15/2026 8 292 750 B+

10.00 $90 5/18/2018 EPE 7.750 5/15/2026 7 469 1,000 NR

Figure 10: Anticipated Deals (EVR ISI Coverage)

Source: 1Derrick, Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

Figure 11: Corporate Deal Count & Forward Multiples

Source: 1Derrick, FactSet, Evercore ISI Research

Mid-Caps Ticker Rating Target Price Δ% to Price Target Investment Thesis

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

Mid-Caps Ticker Rating Target Price Δ% to Price Target Investment Thesis

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

EVR ISI E&P Assumptions 2016A 2017A 2018 2019 2020+

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

Diversified Mid Cap E&P

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

Diversified Mid Cap E&P

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

Diversified Mid Caps

United States (Small-Cap)

Source: FactSet, Evercore ISI Research

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

EVR ISI Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) Consensus Forward Curve

Mars Blend LLS

Source: Bloomberg LP, Evercore ISI Research

WTS Midland $65.75 $58.92 $59.38 $50.06

8,000 $80 3,500

2,000 $20 1,000

Global YoY Demand Growth (mb/d)

Month IEA Forecast Was Made

$1 ($20) Midland - Cushing

2nd vs. 1st 12th vs. 1st

Source: Company Data, 1Derrick, Evercore ISI Research

NPV @ $50/bbl and $2.75/mmbtu NPV @ $60/bbl and $3/mmbtu

Source: Company Data, 1Derrick, Evercore ISI Research

Ethane $0.53 $0.32 $0.29 $0.25

2016A 2017A 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018 2019 Thereafter

Source: Company Data, Evercore ISI Research

Source: Bloomberg LP, Evercore ISI Research

Figure 61: Natural Gas Prices Figure 62: Marcellus Pricing

NY Transco 6 $2.30 $3.37 $2.67 $2.72

Dominion/ Appalachia $1.31 $2.85 $2.85 $3.02

AECO Canada $1.68 $1.11 $0.96 $1.63

Rockies Opal $2.05 $2.24 $1.97 $2.65

Average includes El Paso, Gas transmission NW and PG&E City Gate

2,000 5yr max (200)

10% AT IRR ($3.0/Mmcf, $60/bbl)

Assumes 10% IRR and flat WTI price of $50/bbl

IRR at $50/$3 IRR at EVRISI

Assumes $60/bbl WTI and $3.00/mmbtu Henry Hub

Consumption (billion cubic feet per day)

Source: EIA, Evercore ISI Research

Figure 80: Baker Hughes Horizontal Oil Rig Count

Last Rig Peak to Current 10/24/2014 9/28/2018 Delta