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Л.И. БОРИСОВА

Хрестоматия
по переводу

Английский язы к

МОСКВА
НВИ-ТЕЗАУРУС
2004
 выложено группой vk.com/create_your_english
УДК 802.0
Б Б К81.2 Англ
Б 82

Рецензент:
академик Международной академии информатизации,
доктор филологических наук, профессор В.Д. Ившин

Борисова Л.И.
Б 82 Хрестоматия по переводу (английский язык).: Уч. пос.
- М.: НВИ-ТЕЗАУРУС, 2004. - 68 с.
ISBN 5-89191-062-4

Учебное пособие содержит тексты, предназначенные для использования в

процессе обучения переводу в высших учебных заведениях. Переводческий
анализ и разбор текстов поможет учащимся закрепить умения и навыки, необ­
ходимые для овладения переводческим мастерством.

Все права по изданию и тиражированию данной книги принадлежат изда­

телю.

УДК 802.0
Б БК81.2 Англ

ISBN 5-89191-062-4 © Борисова Л.И., 2004

© НВИ., 2004
 Предисловие

В книгу включаются тексты на перевод, относящиеся к различ­

ным областям знания и деятельности человека - экономике, народ­
ному хозяйству, производству, науке, здравоохранению, генетике,
охране окружающей среды, политике, переводческой деятельности
и лингвистике. Овладение этими текстами в переводческом аспекте
позволит учащимся закрепить знания, полученные в курсах перево-
доведения, а также углубить умения и навыки перевода информа­
тивных текстов с английского языка на русский. Тексты отражают
новейшую терминологию из указанных сфер человеческой деятель­
ности, а также лексические, грамматические и стилистические сред­
ства, типичные для газетно-публицистического стиля речи совре­
менного английского языка, передача которых в переводах на рус­
ский язык вызывает большие затруднения. Перевод учащимися
этих текстов с последующим анализом и разбором переводческих
явлений, сопоставлением вариантов перевода и выбором наиболее
приемлемых из них позволит приобрести и усовершенствовать
практические умения и навыки переводческой работы, необходи­
мые в профессиональной подготовке переводческих кадров.

Основные методические рекомендации

для работы с текстами
Тексты, включенные в хрестоматию, рассчитаны на следующий
режим проработки и усвоения: самостоятельный письменный пере­
вод учащимися дома с использованием соответствующего перево­
дческого инструментария (словарей, справочников, пособий и пр.) и
последующий разбор переводов в аудитории с преподавателем с
анализом вариантов перевода и обсуждением переводческих реше­
ний.
При работе с текстами учащийся должен следовать таким ме­
тодическим рекомендациям:
Внимательно прочесть текст с начала и до конца.
Выбрать и отметить себе наиболее сложные языковые явления,
передача которых на русский язык сопряжена со значительными
трудностями и потребует обращения к различным словарям, спра­
вочникам, литературе по теме переводимого материала и прочему
рабочему аппарату переводчика.
Особое внимание уделить встретившимся в тексте статей тер­
минам и терминологическим сочетаниям, поскольку термин являет­
ся носителем огромной информации и ошибка при передаче терми­
на может привести к существенным смысловым искажениям текста.
При подборе эквивалентов для терминов следует использовать со­
3
ответствующие специальные терминологические словари, а также
учитывать имеющийся контекст.
Приступить к выполнению письменного перевода текста, тща­
тельно анализируя соответствующие лексические, грамматические
и стилистические средства оригинала и синтезируя их на языке пе­
ревода в виде функциональных соответствий (эквивалентов).
Выполнить полный письменный перевод английского текста,
передавая по возможности точно его содержание с ориентацией на
стилистические нормы русского информативного текста. В процессе
анализа текста осуществить переводческое членение английского
текста, выделить единицы перевода и наиболее оптимально вос­
произвести на русский язык все выделенные элементы текста с уче­
том микро- и макроконтекста переводимого материала.
Отработать все переводные эквиваленты, учитывая имеющие­
ся фоновые знания в области лингвистики и практического владе­
ния языком, информацию современных переводных словарей и
другого переводческого инструментария, экстралингвистическую
информацию, привлекая знания основ теории и методики перевода,
а также переводческую эрудицию.
Проработать перевод заголовка текста с учетом информации
всего переведенного текста, а также рекомендаций по переводу
этой структурной части текста.
Осуществить переводческое редактирование переведенного
материала, анализируя и сопоставляя варианты перевода и прихо­
дя к наиболее оптимальному переводческому решению.
Произвести оценку качества сделанного перевода, проводя
критический разбор и анализ принятых переводческих решений.

Текст 1

CURRENCY AND PRICE REFORM IN RUSSIA

The establishment of a free market economy depends on the estab­

lishment of a stable currency with relatively stable money values (prices)
as a medium of exchange. Without a stable currency and prices indi­
viduals will be hesitant to convert goods and services into cash, resulting
in falling trade leading to falling demands and less production.
As the market depends on stable currency and prices, stable cur­
rency and prices can be established only when all the conditions for a
free market economy are met. In the absence of free market conditions.

4
 the freeing of prices leads to inordinate increases in prices due to short­
age of supply and monopolistic control by industries. If at some stage
during a transition from a highly regulated to a free market system prices
are freed from bureaucratic control before all the essential conditions for
free competition exist, prices rise dramatically and spiraling inflation en­
sues. This has recently occurred in Russia.
From this perspective, the inflation is a symptom of a deeper prob­
lem resulting from the continued existence of constraints on competition.
These constraints may be in the form of legal barriers to entry and exit,
control over raw materials or retail distribution networks, monopolistic
domination of industries, or restrictions on purchase and sale of private
property. But once it is let loose, the symptom, inflation, becomes an ad­
ditional factor preventing the market from establishing itself, like the fever
resulting from infection which caused it and must be treated first.
If free and stable prices can only be established under conditions of
free competition, then it is impossible to demand them as a prerequisite
to introduction of an unregulated market. On the other hand, if the with­
drawal of introduction of controls on the free market can only be safely
established under conditions of stable prices, than some means are
needed of reconciling these two a priori conditions.
Conditions in Russia are not conducive for creating a free market
economy. The free market is based on complete freedom of production,
distribution and consumption. It cannot be introduced in a society in
which government insists on controlling and interfering in the economy.
The market is governed by free will, not by decree. Also, it cannot be
introduced in a society in which the people expect and demand the ad­
vantages of subsidized, command economy prices alongside the ad­
vantages of ample supply, which the market economy generates.
Nowhere does the free market exist in a pure and full sense. In
every country the government interferes with the functioning of the mar­
ket in the light of the country’s social goals. This tampering with the mar­
ket, influences the relative value of various goods and services and
overall value of the currency. The market can bear a certain degree of
interference and still continue to function. Beyond a certain limit, it
breaks down and the currency loses its value.
Russia started out with a command system in which the level of in­
terference is so high that it prevented the market from functioning effec­
tively. It has introduced many reforms to achieve greater freedom, in­
cluding freeing of most prices. Yet the reforms have not yet reached the
point at which there is sufficient freedom for the market to function effec­
tively. As a result, prices have risen to unrealistic levels and interest
rates are exorbitant.
Without rationalizing prices, life will become impossible both for pro­
ducers and consumers. Yet a proper rationalizing of prices demands
5
 creating free market conditions that do not exist today. The question is
weather there is a strategy that can be employed during this transition
period that will foster a smooth and rapid transition? We propose a rem­
edy.
In spite of monopoly conditions and government interference,
the free market may already exist and function in some areas fairly well.
These areas do not require assistance. In other industries the continued
existence of monopoly or regulation results in prices that are artificially
high. In these areas, the first step is to identify the factors that constrain
free competition and to eliminate them as far as possible. Once done,
there will still be a gap between current prices and what would exist un­
der a truly free market. That gap can be measured to determine true
market prices in the manner employed to determine the pricing by water,
power, telephone and other utility companies in the USA. Approximate
market prices can be introduced as administered prices during a transi­
tion period in which competitive conditions are established. Once true
prices have prevailed for some time, even if some constraints continue to
exist, lifting of the administered prices is unlikely to result in a return to
the higher monopolistic prices.
In its origin, money has no inherent value of its own. Its value is
only as a medium of exchange. In addition, it has acquired value arising
from its capacities for preservation, investment and lending. Under free
market conditions, money has no other value. However, in a market
subject to regulation and interference by government this value of cur­
rency is distorted. Constraints on production and fixed prices create an
artificial currency ,/alue.
The difference between the prices prevailing under regulated
conditions and the prices that would prevail under free market conditions
is one measure of the artificial currency value of the economy. The
greater the difference, the higher the artificial value accorded to the cur­
rency, the higher the prices and the lower the actual domestic purchas­
ing power of the currency. This value is directly influenced by actions of
the government to control production, limit distribution, print more
money, determine interest rates, etc. Up to a limit, these actions have
moderate impact on the currency value. Beyond a limit, they destabilize
and destroy its value. It should be possible to measure the artificial value
of any currency as the average of the price distortions to all major goods
and services. Once this value is ascertained, it can be utilized to esti­
mate the level of price distortion in the economy due to interference and
to determine appropriate “market equivalent” prices for goods and serv­
ices.
Assuming that prices in Russia during the transition period are ar­
tificially high due to constraints on free competition and that the level of
6
 constraints exceeds the tolerable limit for the functioning of a free market
economy, the first step would be to reduce the constraints as far as pos­
sible so that prices gravitate downward toward their free market level.
Once this is done, it should be possible for economists to esti­
mate the difference between prevailing and free market prices and to
arrive at a set of administered prices that approximate free market con­
ditions. If these prices are introduced and maintained for a period of
time, they become a standard for “real” prices. The operation of the
economy with a set of real market prices will help rectify the imbalances
and distortions that have crept in and enable the economy to stabilize.
During the interim period efforts should be made to remove re­
maining constraints to competition. If prices are then set free at the ap­
propriate point in the process, the removing of administered prices
should not result in any major fluctuation in prices.
Russia is attempting at a rapid transition from a command econ­
omy to a market economy and has taken significant steps in that direc­
tion. However, the structural impediments to change are extremely great.
Monopolistic conditions exist in most industries. Nearly all property re­
mains in the hands of the state. There are considerable barriers to es­
tablishing new enterprises, expanding production, transporting and dis­
tributing products. It could take years to remove all the major obstacles
to free competition.
Meanwhile, the government has moved vigorously to free prices for
almost all commodities. Under the present non-competitive conditions,
this has resulted in soaring prices and spiraling inflation. Inflation is an
additional destabilizing factor that further confuses and impedes devel­
opment of the free market. Sky-high prices are likely to persist until the
structural impediments to competition are brought down to a tolerable
level in which market forces can act to establish an equilibrium.
The first phase of market reforms has caused a major dislocation of
the economy as well as extreme pains to the population. So great is the
disturbance that the government is under considerable pressure to slow
or backtrack on its present course. Since the barriers to competition
cannot be eliminated in the short term, there is little hope for relief from
the present predicament, unless an alternative strategy for the transition
is adopted. The question is whether any alternative strategy can resolve
the dilemma. Our conclusion is that it can.
If it is conceded that the basic cause of the inflationary spiral is the
residue of the old command structures of industry and trade, then the
highest priority must be given to replacing these structures with those of
a market economy. Freeing of prices will only be successful when it is
accompanied by proportionate introduction of other attributes of the free
market - private property, free entry and exit from industry, free flow of
 goods, control of monopolistic concerns, etc. Since most prices have
already been freed prematurely, the highest priority should be given to
measures for political deregulation of the economy.
Political deregulation can only partially create conditions needed for
the free market to operate. The implementation of appropriate measures
and the response of the economy to them will take time. Even if fully im­
plemented, these measures are unlikely to meet the minimum conditions
required for the market to function effectively. In this case inflation and
instability will continue, the economy will continue to collapse and the
market may never get established.
Granted that market conditions cannot be fully introduced in the
short term, during the interim period prices need to be stabilized in some
way. Some control on prices will have to remain in force until the market
establishes itself. After exhausting the available opportunities for political
deregulation, economic deregulation of prices should be utilized to move
the economy further in the right direction and establish a stable currency.
It should be possible to determine the minimum distance the
economy still has to travel toward deregulation in order for the market to
function and to calculate the price levels that would naturally be obtained
at the point. Administered prices for essential factors could then be intro­
duced to force prices down toward their free market level. This action
would help counter-inflation, stabilize prices and approximate market
conditions, thereby helping the market come into existence.
A team of leading economists can evolve a package of appropri­
ate prices. If the government is convinced that the policy is sound, it can
be projected to the people. In view of the great havoc being caused by
the price spiral, it is likely to be received sympathetically and eventually
accepted.
This approach would only involve controlling key prices during an
interim period. During that period all efforts would be taken to create all
essential market conditions. Prices would be adjusted and eventually
released at the point when the market is functional and controls are no
longer needed.
Garry Jacobs, Robert McFariane, Moscow News

8
 Текст 2

LESSONS OF THE ECONOMIC TRANSITION IN RUSSIA

The speed and magnitude of the transition to democratic, market

economies taking place throughout Eastern Europe and especially in
Russia are unprecedented in the history of the world. Past experience
and present economic doctrine are inadequate guidance for this pio­
neering venture. No one knows the steps for a smooth transition, be­
cause it has never been done before. The only obvious truths are to
avoid unrealistic expectations, simplistic and doctrinaire solutions, or
premature loss of faith. Nevertheless, several lessons are already ap­
parent.
Russia has demonstrated a pronounced capacity for creative and
original adaptation and social innovation in the past, though it has been
taken to an extreme and followed insistently even when it led in the
wrong direction. Now the opposing tendency of pure imitation has come
to the surface. This is likely to be no more successful or acceptable than
its opposite. The country must seek and find a middle way.
It is not uncommon for newcomers to any philosophy or field of en­
deavour to accept its premises and concepts with a faith and a zeal that
the old-timers and experienced practitioners in the field lack. That is the
attitude with which the Russia government, its economic experts and the
general public have embraced Western economic doctrines of market
economy during the first phase of the reforms which is now drawing to a
close. This is natural.
What is surprising is the zeal with which some Western economists
and international institutions have advocated extreme free market prac­
tices which had been discredited and abandoned in the West long ago.
Not a single major Western power today permits domestic and interna­
tional market forces to freely determine prices and production levels for
agricultural products, yet this is precisely the advice that Russia has
been pressured to adopt. Agricultural subsidies and price controls have
been and continue to be an important factor in the West - determining
the price of milk in San Francisco and the supply of rice in Tokyo.
The policies which have supported the most successful recent de­
velopment initiatives of nations around the world, especially in Japan and
the newly industrialized nations of the Pacific Rim, do not support the
argument for unregulated free market forces. It is not the wisdom of the
free market that enabled these nations to grow so rapidly. They com­
bined freedom for entrepreneurial initiative, private property and market
prices with carefully crafted industrial policies and tightly controlled for­
eign trade and investment. They utilized import tariffs, export incentives,
9
 tax relief and other mechanisms to guide development of their domestic
economies.
Historically, the free market evolved over centuries in conditions of
surplus production and stable currency - neither of which exists in Rus­
sia today. Efforts to accelerate the development of the market will have
to first of all meet the political, legal, social and economic conditions
historically required for its creation And these conditions must be met
simultaneously.
Market reforms may be implemented partially and stepwise, but they
cannot be implemented in an unbalanced or piecemeal fashion. The en­
tire package of free market practices must go together, otherwise they
do not work. Freeing pricing without first regulating or dismantling mo­
nopolies, promoting privatization of land and enterprises, ensuring free
flow of goods and establishing wholesale markets and multiple distribu­
tion outlets lead to speculation, soaring prices, hoarding and falling pro­
duction. Progress on all these fronts must proceed hand in hand.
Market reforms cannot be implemented in the old ways of the com­
mand economy. No one can create a market by decree. In the new po­
litical climate, reforms will be successful only in the measure they are
understood and accepted by the population. The December 1991 decree
on land reforms met with serious opposition from the employees on state
and collective farms - the very people wno were intended to benefit most
from the decrees - because few understood the real advantages of the
change. As a result the course of implementation had to be modified and
much of its original benefit lost.
The nation has been so preoccupied with "reengineering" its eco­
nomic and political system and with meeting the conditions to attract for­
eign aid and investment that it has overlooked the many essential and
practical steps needed to implement the reforms on the ground. Even if
the government were able to get all the laws and economic policies
"right" the first time, there is no assurance that the actual impact on the
people would have been less harsh than it has been. While laws and
policies are necessary conditions for reform, but they are not sufficient to
spur economic growth. Macro level policy measures have to be comple­
mented and supported by parallel efforts at the micro level to educate
the population about the new economic system, to create awareness of
commercial opportunities, to impart appropriate business and managerial
skills, to build up new social institutions and to encourage and promote
new enterprises. In most rural districts, a single banking institution is re­
sponsible for meeting all the diverse needs of the population. In the en­
tire city of Moscow there is not a single wholesale market for food. There
is no agricultural extension system to transfer new technology from the
lab to the land, no system for consumer credit, no agency in charge of
10
 promoting small business development. All these and countless others
are needed to take advantage of the more favourable macro environ­
ment that is emerging.
In a command economy, a few people at the top receive most of the
information and take most of the decisions while the rest of the popula­
tion carry them out. In contrast, the market is based on millions of deci­
sions taken every day by millions of individuals in fields, factories and
retail stores around the country. Information plays a critical role in the
function of the market. All these decision makers require timely access to
reliable sources of information. The shortage of reliable information and
of institutions to disseminate it is another major constraint to the devel­
opment of the market in Russia.
Finally, the prospect or lure of foreign aid has itself become an im­
pediment to successful transition. In the 1950s, the Soviet Union man­
aged to recover from the horrendous destruction it suffered during World
War II and to embark on a period of rapid industrial growth without any
external assistance. But today without having passed through the rav­
ages of war, the country desperately seeks foreign support and feels
helpless without it. It is right that the world community generously sup­
ports successful completion of the reform process in Russia, the country
which has ushered the world into a new era of peace. But it is also right
for the country to recognize the enormuus untapped potentials which it
possesses - human, natural and productive - rather than be distracted
by the prospect of a large influx of foreign capital. Experience elsewhere
shows that foreign aid rarely comes when it is really needed and never
comes unconditionally. Countries that help themselves find others eager
to help them after the fact. No country on earth possesses greater natu­
ral or human endowments than Russia. This is enough to guarantee the
ultimate success of the transition.
The International Commission on Peace and Food is an interna­
tional non-govemmental organization with 30 members from 20 different
nations working to promote effective military conversion and economic
development strategies The Commission is involved in several projects
in Russia intended to accelerate the country's economic transition, to
offer an alternative strategy for agrarian reform to establish model micro­
level district development programs, to identify untapped domestic re­
sources and to create an effective system for dissemination of commer­
cial information in rural areas.
Garry Jacobs, Robert McFanane, Moscow News

11
 Текст 3

ESPECIALLY DISMAL A T DOWNTURNS

History shows that upbeat forecasts are unreliable.

So don’t be complacement.
"We’re at a stage in the control of the economy where
most recessions are the result of shocks”

By nearly all measures, the economy is cruising through cloudless

skies. Inflation is low, interest rates are steady, stock prises are hitting
new hights, the Index of Leading Economic Indicators has risen at a solid
5,5% annual rate during the last six months. And only 20% of econo­
mists polled by the Blue Chip Economic Indicators see any chance of
recession at all before 1998.
So everybody can relax, right? Not so fast. Whether they do their
forecasts using large-scale computer models or on the back of an enve­
lope, economists can do a good job predicting growth most of the time.
But when it comes to calling recessions, their track record is miserable.
Over the past 25 years, economic forecasters have missed four of the
past five recessions. That includes the most recent downturn, which be­
gan in July, 1990. Economists are "usually late in making the c a ll," says
David S. Wyss, director of research at DRI/McGraw-HilL. Sure, downtur-
nes are often triggered L>y outside shocks, such as the oil-price jumps of
the 1970s or the 1990 Iraqi invasion of Kuwait. Such events are inher­
ently unpredictable by even the best forecasters. But after the shock hits,
economists often have trouble incorporating the bad news into their
models or into their thinking. Moreover, economic forecasting techniques
have not kept up with an increasingly global and inter-connected world.
Academic economists have almost abandoned the field, while the com­
mercial forecasters who use large-scale computer models do not have
the resources needed to conduct long-term research.
Even when the U.S. economy was more insulated from global
forces, economists had a tough time calling downturns. Go back to the
late 1960s, at the end of a long period of sustained growth much like the
current one. In Deceber, 1968, leading economists put the probability of
recession in the coming year at less than 15% Unfortunately, they did
not foresee that a combination of defence cuts and tight money would
push the economy down into recession by the end of 1969.
The batting average of economists got even worse once the U.S.
started getting battered by outside surprises such as the OPEC oil em­
bargo of 1973 and the ensuing price increases which led to an unantici­

12
 pated sharp recession in America. The onset of the 1981-82 downturn
also fooled most economic forecasters. And the recession of 1990 ar­
rived with barely any warning. "No model predicted that recession at all,"
says Ray C. Fair, a Yale University professor whose forecasting model is
now available on the World Wide Web (fairmodel.econ.yale.edu).
Forecasters defend themselves by arguing that recessions are un­
predictable for good reason. A potential downturn that develops slowly -
say, because consumers are becoming overextended or inventories are
reaching excess levels - can be anticipated and defused by a nimble
and well-informed Federal Reserve, especially under an inveterate data
hawk such as Alan Greenspan. As a result, recessions happen only
when the policy-makers - and the forecasters - are surprised by events,
"We're at a stage in the control of the economy where most recessions
are the result of shocks", says Wyss. "That's very hard to forecasts".
But much of the blame for the inability of models to forecast reces­
sions must rest on academic economists. In the 1950s and 1960s, eco­
nomic forecasting models were at the leading edge of academic re­
search. The first major computer macroeconomic model was created by
Lawrence R. Klein, who later won the Nobel prize in economics for his
work. Top economists believed that macroeconomic models could en­
able economists to make predictions about the future path of the econ­
omy, just as physicists make predictions about the behavior of subatomic
particles.
ACADEMIC STEPCHILD. Today, despire the obvious importance of
better predictions, macroeconomic forecasting is an academic stepchild.
With a few exceptions, "you just don't have new research going on,” says
Michael R. Donihue of Colby College, who organizes a regular meeting
of the leading economic-model makers.
The downfall of the macro models started with their failure to
predict the recession of 1973-75 and the stagnation that followed. "There
was great disillusionment when it turned out that these models didn't de­
liver science," notes Christopher A. Sims, an economist at Yale.
Around the same time, academic economists became distrustful of
the entire notion of large-scale macro models. The body blow to the
models came from the University of Chicago's Robert E. Lucas Jr., the
winner of last year's Nobel prize in economics. He argued that the be­
havior of consumers and businesses depends on their expectations
about government monetary and fiscal policy. As a result, major shifts in
policy - such as a big tax cut - could bring about changes in behavior
that would be missed by the macro models, since they are not able to
track expectations. The "Lucas critique," as it came to be known, dis­
couraged a whole generation of economists from having anything to do
with forecasting. Says Joel Prakken, chairman of Macroeconomic Advis-
 ers, a St. Louis forecasting firm: "There is a segment of the profession
who thinks macromodeling is a defunct exercise."
The few attempts by academic econon lists in recent years to find
better forecasting techniques have generally fallen short. In the late
1980s, two high-powered econometricians, James H. Stock of Harvard
University and Mark W. Watson of Princeton University, came up with a
new "recession index" that they hoped would better predict downturns.
The problem? In its first big test, the new index completely missed the
downturn of 1990.
Forecasters and academics agree, however, that there are ways to
improve recession predictions. At the top of the wish list is a better model
of the international economy. Most macro models are focused on the
U.S., even thcugn most recessionary shocks in recent years have come
from overseas. Could a military flareup between China and Taiwan lead
to a recession in the U.S.? What would be the effect of a violent civil war
in Russia on the American economy? The existing macro models do not
include the equations needed to answer these questions. Moreover, the
necessary economic data on investment and trade flows is either faulty
or does not exist. "We underrate the importance of what is happening
overseas," say^ WybS.
Today's forecasting models also have difficulty dealing with changes
in consumer and business attitudes. Economists missed the recession of
1990 in part because they did not expect the invasion to depress con­
sumer confidence as sharply as it did. Especially little is known about
small-business attitudes, which are closely tied to entrepreneurial and
job-creation activity. That’s why forecasters cannot predict whether the
economy could shrug off another stoke market crash, as it did in 1987, or
whether a collapse in stock prices would cause businesses and con­
sumers to become more cautious and lead to a recession. "Understand­
ing exactly what's driving expectations is an awfully tough problem", says
Frederic S. Mishkin, research director for the Federal Reserve Bank of
New York.
Certainly the economy is strong enough that there's no reason to
expect a recession in the next few months. But the experience of the
past quarter century shows that wnen the next recession comes,
whether next year or next century, it's sure to be a surprise - especially
to economists.
Michael J Mandel, Business Week

14
 Текст 4

SAMSUNG MOVE INTO CARS STARTS WAVE OF PROTEST

SEOUL - Automobile workers threatened Tuesday to strike if the

government approved Samsung Co.'s application to enter the passen-
ger-car market.
Presidents of South Korea's six carmakers, fearing competition from
Samsung would hurt their business, made an impassioned appeal to
prevent the entry of the prospective new rival.
The ministry is due to decide on Samsung's application, which it
made Monday, within 20 days. Analysts said it was almost certain to be
approved.
"If the government accepts Samsung's application to import tech­
nology despite our plea, all car-industry workers are ready to go on a full-
scale strike," said Bae Bum Sik, chief of an association of automotive
workers that has about 100,000 members in 70 companies.
Mr. Bae said increased competition would lead to "deteriorating
earnings, which will eventually threaten our job security and our life­
style."
He said a rally was planned for Wednesday outside government
buildings near Seoul to press a demand to block the Samsung move and
that a delegation would visit the Blue House, the presidential residence,
to make a direct appeal to President Kim Young Sam.
About 25,000 employees of Kia Motors Corp., the strongest oppo­
nent of Samsung's entry, held a peaceful protest Tuesday.
Presidents of the six current carmakers also made a plea in a front­
page advertisement published in most South Korean newspapers to
block Samsung's plans.
International Herald Tribune

Текст 5

JAPANESE DEMAND FOR FOREIGN CARS

GROWS AS CHOICES WIDEN

TOKYO - Imports of foreign-made vehicles in Japan surged 67 per­

cent in November, the Japan Automobile Importers Association said
Tuesday.

15
 A total of 26,121 passenger cars and trucks were sold last month,
up from 15,636 in November 1993. Sales of foreign cars in Japan have
been rising for 13 month as a result of lower prices, a greater choice of
vehicles and wider acceptance among Japanese consumers. Of the total
imports 24,930 passenger cars were sold in November, up 66 percent
from a year earlier.
Takayuki Shimosaka, a spokesman for the association, said more
Japanese dealers were selling a greater variety of imported vehicles.
Honda Motor Co.'s dealer network, for instance, distributes vehicles
made by Chrysler Corp.
Lower retail prices because of the yen’s appreciation against the
dollar, low-interest loan campa.gns and the popularity of Japanese cars
produced overseas were among other factors contributing to sales.
Mercedes-Benz AG led all importers in November. Honda was close
behind. Sales of cars from Ford Motor Co., which led US auto compa­
nies, more than tripled from a year earlier, to 1,325 units.
Among all imported vehicles, 6,724 were Japanese-brand cars pro­
duced abroad, the association said.
Despite the increase, imports still made up only 6.1 percent of all
new cars sold in Japan in November, as foreign car dealers said barriers
to doing business in Japan continued to make progress slow.
International Herald Tribune

Текст 6

HOW MUCH DOES THAT JOB PAY?

Money - it's a difficult subject to discuss. But try talking about it with
a total stranger, who at the same time, is sizing you up, seeing if you can
make it as part of the team. Here's the scenario: The interview is going
well. The gentleman in the expensive, black power suit and small note­
book sitting across from you seems genuinely impressed with your job
skills. You are relaxed. The answers to his questions pour easily from
your mouth. You somehow know that he's interested. Your experience
seems to fit perfectly with their expectation. Until... that small blunder.
You just couldn't help it. You needed to know: "So tell me please, how
much does this position pay?" The interviewer recoils, and answers in a
vague, we-will-discuss-that-later way, leaving you smarting from a ques­
tion you thought was appropriate. This is your life - what’s wrong with
knowing your potential income? The only thing wrong with it is that hu­

16
 man resource managers think that (1) you should already have an idea
about what a position pays, and (2) they want to judge you for your skills
and potentials, leaving money talk for a little later.
"Motorola's approach is not to discuss salaries during preselection,"
says Human Resource Manager Alla Gridasova, "If (the candidate)
doesn’t touch the topic, it might not happen until the second, third or
fourth interview." She doesn't broach the topic until the company is pre­
paring a job offer or a draft contract. Svetlana Motenko, human re­
sources supervisor for Conoco, agrees with holding off on money dis­
cussions until later. "Personally, I don't like a candidate being curious
about the salary in the first interview. It shouldn't be the main drjving
point; it decreases the first impression if (the candidate) asks."
Though most human resource managers recommended not dis­
cussing salary expectations during an initial meeting, it is not a fixed rule.
Often it depends on the aggressiveness of the company and type of po­
sition you are going after. Mitti Laamanen, area-manager for Dow Jones
Telerate in Eastern Europe, takes another approach: "Why not. You
should have a wish or request about what kind of salary you expect for a
job," he says. "If you are professional, then know what you want to do
and know how much money to expect from a job," says Laamanen.
"Those who don't know these things in an interview will be put in another
pile - perhaps the interesting pile - but we're looking for a person who
knows what they want."
But whether you wait or not, know the salary range before going into
an interview. Recruiting agencies are often advised about the salary
range for each position and candidates should be informed before ap­
plying for a particular job. Especially if you are applying for a job through
an agency, human resource managers advise you to discuss salary at a
second or third interview - otherwise, you will appear too interested in
the money and less in the position. "I could understand that it is a differ­
ent situation if a person answers a blind ad, or an ad in the paper,"
Motenko says. Salary ranges may be very wide, depending on the com­
pany, the level of the position, and the skills of the applicant. Do the
homework before the interview and call agencies or scour the newspa­
pers. Have at least a general idea about the pay ranges because human
resource managers will most likely have an idea about the pay ranges
for your previous jobs.
That's right. When human resource managers look at your resume,
they will already have an idea about your current salary and the salary
you may expect. Human resource departments, especially in larger
firms, have access to information about salaries in almost every position
in the market. Many firms, both Russian and Western, conduct surveys
among companies operating in Russia, collecting data about salary lev­
17
 els for all positions. The results of these surveys are then distributed to
the human resource departments of the companies that took part. Mo­
torola's Gridasova says she was involved in nine of those surveys this
year, noting that Motorola also has access to an internal industry survey.
"We have a lot of data, and a good picture of what employees are paid
for a job," says Gridasova. These surveys are more than just numbers
and titles. "They evaluate jobs of different origins, from engineers to of­
fice managers," says Motenko of Conoco.
But once the topic is addressed, how should you steer through the
numbers game? The first step is to know that salaries are discussed in
terms of gross earnings, and it is critical that candidates know the differ­
ence between gross and net figures. Human resources managers will go
into detail about the differences if necessary, but it is better if the candi­
date understands the figures for negotiating. Gross salary is the amount
made before taxes, while net is the amount after taxes have been de­
ducted. For example, if a company offers you $3,000 a month, then ex­
pect this pay, minus all appropriate taxes that the company will deduct
before you receive the paycheck. Taxes range from 12 to 35 percent,
depending on the level of .ncome.
Also, human resource managers say candidates should be willing to
discuss both fixed and non-fixed incomes. This means that a portion of
salary may be based upon commission or expected sales levels and
could vary from month to month.
Other topics that should be addressed in addition to salary figures
are company benefit packages. These will often include medical insur­
ance, access to a sports complex, free lunches or a lunch stipend, trans­
portation to and from the nearest metro for companies situated incon­
veniently, or possible free company products (it could be food, maga­
zines, or other goods produced by the company). Companies may also
institute annual incentive plans for certain offices or positions, in which
target goals of sales must be met to receive a bonus salary. Others
things to consider or ask about include stock option plans, a pension
fund, even loans for houses or education.
But what if you request an amount over the salary range offered by
a position? "II someonn wants more than (the range) - if we see that the
person is superior - then maybe we will reevaluate," says Laamanen of
Dow Jones Telerate. Companies will have a predetermined salary range
for a position, but they can be flexible if they find the person they want.
Depending on how high it is above the predetermined amount, it may
knock you out of consideration. If you know what you are worth, or what
range you require, then don't back down for the sake of getting the job.
"It's strange if you do that. Either your expectation is unrealistic or you
don't know what you want", says Laamanen.
18
 But what if you go under the range possible for a particular position,
will the company think that you are underqualified and not worthy of the
job? Human resource managers agree that if a potential candidate states
an amount lower than the available range, if they are qualified for the job,
then they will receive a surprising raise if accepted for the position. "If (a
candidate's) expectations are low, we don’t take advantage of it. We
don't make any conclusions. Different companies have different sala­
ries,” says Motenko of Conoco. "It's always easier to deal with a happy
employee with a significant increase versus an employee used to work­
ing for a good salary and then not getting the monetary benefits from
changing jobs," she says.
Salary levels can rise, depending on your skills. So don't be shy in-
justifying the higher salary level with your GAAP training or proven mar­
keting skills. Most companies recognize the differences in the Russian
educational system as compared with the West, and are most ofter
looking for people with potential.
Laamanen puts it simply: "If you don't know it in an interview, then
how do you know it in a job." He stresses tour things for a successful
candidate: (1) have a good CV, (2) understand the earnings, (3) look for
the right job, and (4) be professional in an interview.
Know what you are going after and know how much it pays. And be
a little patient before bringing up the subject. Prove yourself as a suc­
cessful candidate, then money issues will be easier to discuss.
Ash!e,gh Morris, The Career Forum

Текст 7

THE QUIET PATH TO TECHNOLOGICAL PREEMINENCE

The U.S. government is relying on ambitious research projects to

spur commercial competitiveness. Instead it should speed the commer­
cialization of new technologies wherever they may be developed

Alarmed by the continuing erosion of America's position in world

markets, the U.S. government has embarked on ambitious research and
development projects thought to have important commercial applica­
tions. Although neither the Reagan nor the Bush administration has an­

19
 nounced it as such, the initiatives of the past three years amount to a
major change in direction: policymakers otherwise devoted to the free
market are pursuing what is in effect a targeted industrial policy for high
technologies. Some of the prujects may be motivated more by political
considerations or the interests of pure science than by commercial re­
quirements. Nevertheless, each has been justified to the public in terms
of the nation's competitive needs.
In January, 1987, for example, the Reagan administration approved
a $4.4-billion plan for a superconducting particle accelerator; a White
House official deemed the project "critical" to the nation's future competi­
tiveness and predicted that American companies would benefit from its
spin-offs. Later in the year the president announced a "superconductivity
initiative" aimed at developing practical applications for superconducting
mateiials and called the technology "absolutely essential to our future
competitiveness."
Early in 1988, warning that Japanese supercomputers were already
on the market "with better performance than expected," the White House
unveiled a five-year, billion-dollar "high-performance computing strat­
egy." The administration also announced that the Defense Advanced
Research Projects Agency (DARPA) would contribute $1U0 million a
year to SEMATECH, a joint research venture by leading U.S. semicon­
ductor makers.
Soon thereafter, initial construction contracts were awarded for the
space station, buttressed by claims that the orbiting laboratory would be
"vital to enhancing the nation's international competitiveness in the dec­
ades ahead."
This year has been marked by a sudden focus on high-definition
television: DARPA has proposed a two-year, $30-million research pro­
gram to develop the technology, and the Bush administration is consid­
ering plans to grant antitrust immunities and tax breaks to American
firms that produce HDTV equipment.
This high-visibility strategy for restoring U.S. technological promi­
nence appears to require not only ever-greater government expenditures
on the research and development of new technologies but also special
incentives to boost private-sector research and development spending in
areas not covered by such projects. Some policymakers are urging in­
creased tax credits for research and development to spur commercial
R&D spending. They point out that the portion of the gross national
product devoted to research and development is lower today than it was
20 years ago and that commercial R&D makes up a smaller part of
America's GNP than it does in either West Germany or Japan.
The alarm expressed by U S. policymakers over the nation's loss of
competitiveness in global high-technology markets is not misplaced. The
20
 U.S. share of the world semiconductor market, for example, dropped
from 50 percent in 1984 to 37 percent in 1988 while Japan's share rose
to more than 45 percent. American companies have virtually stopped
selling dynamic random-access memory chips on the open market, and
American makers of semiconductor-manufacturing equipment are clos­
ing shop. Japan is taking over these fields. America's share of the world
market for the consumer electronics products that incorporate a large
fraction of semiconductors - products such as videocassette recorders,
motor-driven 35-mm autofocus cameras and compact disk players - has
dropped to about 5 percent since 1Я75; Japan's share has risen from
about 10 percent to more than 25 percent. No U.S. company manufac­
tures fax machines, for which the world market grew to $3 billion in 1988;
again Japanese companies are in the forefront. Japan now dominates
the numerically controlled machine-tool industry. Japanese companies
are far ahead of American ones in the commercialization of hjgh-
definition television. Recent government studies warn that Japan is also
ahead of the U.S. in applying superconducting materials.
In 1986 America's trade balance in high-technology' goods such as
semiconductors and communications equipment turned negative for the
first time since data have been collected on high-technology trade. In
1987 and 1988, despite a sharp drop in the value of the dollar with re­
spect to foreign currencies, the U.S. posted only a modost surplus in
high-technology trade. This poor performance has been caused partly by
Americans' desire for imported goods of all kinds but mainly by a loss of
competitiveness in world markets.
Will the new path of ambitious research and development projects
restore America's technological lead? It seems doubtful. The U.S. al­
ready leads the world in the quantity and quality of its research and de­
velopment, but this lead has not yielded commercially competitive prod­
ucts. America's research universities, taken as a whole, are the best in
the world. The research laboratories of America's largest corporations
are unrivaled. American researchers write more than a third of all scien­
tific and technical articles published around the globe, and they receive
more U.S. patents than the rest of the world combined. Total spending
on research and development in the U.S. is significantly higher than that
in any other country and still three times the R&D spending in Japan.
There is no reason to suppose that more spending on research and
development - even spending targeted to specific technologies - will
result in commercial success. The problem lies in the inability of Ameri­
can companies (or, more accurately, the U.S.-based portions of what are
fast becoming global technology firms) to transform discoveries quickly
into high-quality products and into processes for designing, manufactur­
ing, marketing and distributing such products. The fruits of research and
21
development - new data, insights, inventions, prototypes - are easily
disseminated across national borders. Increasingly the winners in the
competitive race are the companies and nations that make use of those
fruits most rapidly and comprehensively.
Robert B. Reich, Scientific American

Текст 8

AMERICANS WIN OPTION ON BUDVAR

PRAGUE - Anheuser-Busch, America's biggest brewing company,

will get first chance at buying part of Czech state brewer Budvar NP,
makers of the European brand of Budweiser beer, a government official
has said.
Anheuser-Busch Companies Inc. and Budvar have been locked in a
protracted row over who has the right to use the "Budweiser" trademark,
the flagship brand of both brewers.
Anheuser-Busch "has become the first official partner for the discus­
sions (on Budvar's privatization). "If we do not reach agreement, then
there will be others," said Deputy Privatization Minister Roman Ceska.
European breweries such as Heineken of the Netherlands and
Carlsberg of Denmark have frequently been mentioned by analysts as
potential suitors for Budvar.
Ceska said Anheuser-Busch would be sole negotiator for a minority
stake in the brewery, located in Ceske Budejovice (known as Budweis in
German), 140 kilometers south of Prague.
He added there was no exact time framework or deadline for the
talks.
Anheuser-Busch has not been able to sell the American Budweiser
brand in Europe and Budvar has been prevented from selling the Czech
version in North America because of mutually exclusive threats of
trademark infringement, which has been put off by an agreed moratorium
on legal action.
The Moscow Times

22
 Текст 9

HEALTH CHALLENGE: GETTING BASIC

CARE TO THE URBAN POOR
NEW YORK - Two weeks ago, Earn Lloyd staggered into the Mon-
tefiore Medical Center emergency room nearly comatose, nearly blind
and barely able to walk.
Doctors discovered he had severe diabetes, which kept him in the
hospital for the next 10 days. But Mr. Lloyd's rr.ore serious medical
problem was the lack of a decent general doctor, which for him and hun­
dreds of thousands of others in New York's poorer neighborhoods turns
treatable outpatient diseases like diabetes into life-threatening condi­
tions.
In wide stretches of inner-city New York, there are only a handful of
doctors, and virtually none who offer patients a reasonable standard of
primary care.
The severe shortage will make President Bill Clinton's health-
careplan, or any alternative, difficult to achieve in these areas that most
need help.
The president proposes to guarantee coverage for all, and plans to
enroll the poorest in health-maintenance organizations. But unless there
is a dramatic improvement in the quantity and quality of inner-city doc­
tors, policy experts say, many patients will still head to the emergency
room for their care.
"I don't care what kind of health care card you're carrying, it won't
help you if the doctors and facilities aren't there," said Ronda Kotelchuck,
executive director of Primary Care Development Corp in New York, a
new organization to finance the building of clinics in underserved areas.
The number of doctors willing and eager to practice in the poorest
neighborhoods, always inadequate, has dwindled to practically nothing in
recent years because of low Medicaid reimbursement rates, the threat of
violence and the shifting focus of medical education away from general
doctoring and toward specialty training.
A 1990 survey by the Community Service Society of New York
found 701 doctors serving a population of 1.7 million people in parts of
Harlem, Brooklyn and the South Bronx. But only 28 doctors - or 3.9 per­
cent - met minimum federal standards for decent primary care.
Many did not accept Medicaid, were open less than 20 hours a
week, did not provide after-hour coverage in case of emergencies, and
did not have admitting privileges at a hospital
"The snapshot was bleak, and there was a concentration of older
physicians who were nearing retirement, so we have every expectation
23
 that the situation has gotten worse," said David Jones, the society's
president. The society is a nonprofit organization that is concerned with
issues like the health and housing of the city's neediest.
For patients like Mr. Lloyd, the lack of reasonable primary care
means that coughs are neglected until they become pneumonia, and
chronic conditions like asthma, diabetes and hypertension - which are
generally controlled under the supervision of an attentive doctor - go
untreated until patients are so sick that they need an ambulance.
Mr. Lloyd said he dutifully kept his monthly appointments at a grimy
storefront clinic - even though the doctor there never spent more than
eight or nine minutes with him and never examined him before refilling
prescriptions for pain and high blood pressure.
And when he fell desperately ill on a Saturday, he had no other
choice but to use an emergency room. The clinic is closed on nights and
weekends, and his doctor is not affiliated with any hospital.
"I heard the doctor there was O.K.," Mr. Lloyd said. "He took my
Medicaid card. So I went there".
Still there are some signs of hope. The expectation of increased
federal and state payments for taking care of the poor has prompted a
spurt of clinic-building in areas where there were formerly none.
And state and proposed federal measures have initiated a huge in­
flux of poor patients into health-maintenance organizations, where they
are generally required to have a fixed primary care doctor; a 1991 New
York State law requires that half of all Medicaid patients receive their
health care through these organizations by 1996.
So hospitals, which have for years taken care of these patients in
their clinics and emergency rooms are opening primary clinics in low-
income communities, at least in part, to protect their Medicaid revenues.
Elisabeth Rosenthal, International Herald Tribune

Текст 10

HEART DISEASE: AN ALTERNATIVE TO TRANSPLANT

WASHINGTON - For the many people who wait futilely each year
for heart transplants, researchers are looking at a new option: an ex­
perimental operation that wraps the failing heart with a back muscle that
contracts to help boost the heart's ability to pump blood.
Known as cardiomyoplasty, the procedure is undergoing evaluation
at five medical centers.

24
 "It is a very interesting new technique that may have some use,”
said Sidney Levitsky, chief of cardiothoracic surgery at the New England
Deaconess Hospital in Boston and a member of the American Heart As­
sociation's Council of Cardiovascular Surgery. In certain patients with
heart failure, "it may be the solution for the transplant problem," he said.
Now, doctors report that death rates range from 0 to 20 percent
within one month of surgery at the different hospitals involved.
Many of the deaths are attributed to a range of problems that reflect
other underlying heart conditions not corrected by the surgery, including
irregular heartbeats and ventricular problems. Some patients-have also
died from other illnesses, including pneumonia.
George McGovern, the surgeon who first performed the operation at
Allegheny General, said about 50 percent of the patients there have sur­
vived for five years after surgery.
In comparison, approximately 60 to 85 percent of hearttransplant
patients survive one year after surgery.
The concept of cardiomyoplasty has been discussed by physicians
for more than 50 years. But there were two major hurdles to overcome.
The first was how to condition a skeletal muscle not to tire during 24
hours of daily contraction. Wayne State University thoracic surgeon Larry
Stephenson developed the technique using electrical current to over­
come this obstacle.
The second was how to get a large enough contraction to boost the
heart's production. Standard pacemakers produced small contractions,
not enough to help the failing heart. But a researcher. Rav C.-J. Chiu, at
McGill University in Montreal developed what is called a burst pace­
maker to stimulate the back muscle.
One of the patients to benefit from the surgery was 74-year-old
Reaugh Bonn, a retired business executive who developed congestive
heart failure suddenly in 1988.
Despite extensive treatment, Mr. Bonn continued to deteriorate. His
age disqualified him for a heart transplant.
"It was terribly discouraging," he said from his home in Vancouver,
Washington. "The only story that I really got out of any doctor was that
there was no cure and that I would progressively go downhill until it was
all over.
Then Mr. Bonn read an item about cardiomyoplasiy in a tabloid
newspaper and sought out the operation.
On July II, 1991, Mr. Bonn became the first patient to undergo car­
diomyoplasty at St. Vincent Hospital and Medical Center in Portland,
Oregon. He spent 11 days recovering in the hospital, two and a half of

25
them in the intensive-care unit, before being discharged. "The day I got
out of the hospital I went home, took a nap and then went out to dinner
with my wife," he said.
Sally Squires, International Herald Tribune

Текст 11

GENETICALLY ENGINEERED PRIZE FISH CAUSE CONCERN

SCIENTISTS are genetically engineering "trophy" fish to make them

bigger than ever for competition anglers. But the experiments have be­
come caught in a wrangle over the ethics of such manipulation.
Angling authorities are concerned over the ultimate size of artificially
produced catches and environmentalists fear the effect on natural eco­
systems of the ones that get away.
Scientists say the most serious risk is that genetically engineered
fish might be more competitive than natural fish, upsetting balances be­
tween predator and prey populations.
So far, results of only a couple of field trials have been published.
Research has concentrated on adding cenes to enhance growth by lift­
ing controls on growth hormones. Similar work on pigs and cows pro­
duced unexpected side effects, including rheumatism.
Genetic manipulation in fish is even less predictable, since little is
known about their molecular make-up, according to Dr David Penman, a
research fellow at Stirling University's Institute of Aquaculture.
"All this work is very much at the basic research, or speculation
stage," he said, "but the technology is there, or almost there."
Exploration by the fishing industry includes the possibility of giving
Atlantic salmon "anti-freeze” genes from cold-tolerant fish to extend their
range into colder waters.
Other scientists are working on fish with delayed breeding seasons
that allow them to get fatter earlier.
Dr Penman has been commissioned by the Department of the Envi­
ronment to produce a report on transgenic fish, due for publication next
spring. He said the main brake on commercial interest was consumer
acceptability and ethical concerns. "People are not so worried about
eating engineered plants, but when it comes to animals that is a Dit dif­
ferent."
The Independent

26
 Текст 12

GENE GENIES

The increased commercial use of genetic engineering

techniques has major ecological risks unless statutory
safeguards are introduced.
Economic pressures could encourage some environmentally
irresponsible uses of genetic engineering.

FOR most people genetic engineering or manipulation is not only a

mystery, but a rather remote subject.
But genetic manipulation is a very important and developing aspect
of biotechnology, a science that is evolving rapidly.
So far the products of genetic engineering have been chemicals,
often indistinguishable from materials appearing naturally.
But in the past few years plans have evolved for the release into the
environment of organisms where there has been genetic intervention to
change the characteristics of the organisms.
This new-found ability to move genes around between species at
will raises a number of profound questions, both moral and ecological.
The way is being opened now in Britain for large-scale commercial
release of genetically engineered organisms in the near future.
That has come with the recent recommendations of the Royal
Commission report Deliberate Release of Genetically Engineered Or­
ganisms.
In fact the evidence provided by that report has offered powerful
support for the independent body UK Genestics Forum's call for a partial
moratorium on release.

Concern
The forum is a group of concerned scientists, academics, environ­
mentalists, consumer representatives and animal welfarists.
The members of its core group are drawn from such organisations
as the Institute for European Environmental Policy, Imperial and King's
Colleges of the University of London, the universities of Leeds and Man­
chester, the London Food Commission, the Pesticides Trust and Oxfam.
So the concern of the forum on the issue should not be treated
lightly.
Britain from the outset has had the Advisory Committee on Genetic
Manipulation which considers all proposals to produce genetically engi­
neered organisms.

27
 The commission recommends that there be a new committee em­
powered by legislation to license all plans to release engineered organ­
isms into the environment.
The commission also believes that there should be a proper proce­
dure for monitoring the environmental effects of such releases.
It also asks that information about the intentions of researchers and
commercial producers should be made publicly available.
While the genetics forum welcomes the commission's discussion of
the risks and uncertainties surrounding deliberate release, it suggests
that the commission appears to ignore the thrust of its own evidence by
opening the way to large-scale release.
The forum is concerned that no proposals have been made to re­
store public representation on the proposed release committee.
It also believes that deliberate release cannot be regulated solely on
the basis of its ecological risks.
It reiterates its call for a public biotechnology commissjon to be con­
stituted.
This, it says, is the only mechanism able to take account of the
broad range of issues raised by genetic engineering and enable a public
voice to be heard on them.

Potential
The forum states that the new biotechnologies, including the use of
genetically engineered organism in the environment, are predicted to
have a major economic impact over the next 50 years.
It argues that some see biotechnology as an environmental panacea
"because of its perceived potential to treat chemical pollution and to sub­
stitute for other environmentally unsustainable technologies."
But in fact it says that it is hard to imagine a technology of such
power that could not have social implications.
It instances as an example the use of advanced enzyme technology.
Enzymes are biological catalysts that speed chemical reactions.
They can be used to enable high fructose syrup to be substituted for
cane-derived sucrose as a sweetener.
This has resulted in a serious reduction of sugar cane exports from
several Third World countries with adverse effects on export income.

Impacts
The forum believes that despite the evidence, the potential of bio­
technology for negative economic and social impacts is not being seri­
ously considered.
Regulatory approaches appear currently to be inadequate to tackle
these implications of the technology.

28
 Biotechnology has moved rapidly from the research laboratory to its
industrial phase. "It has become big business," the forum points out.
Since the 70s around 600 specialist biotechnology firms have been
founded and many of the world's largest transnational corporations in the
agrochemical food processing and pharmaceutical sectors have spent
large sums of money to develop biotechnology, it notes.
It goes on to examine one company, Monsanto, which has already
invested one billion US dollars in biotechnology research, which it must
recoup in sales.
It goes on to warn that a number of major industrial powers in the
East and West are seeking to create or maintain a lead in this new sci­
ence.
It is concerned that economic and political pressures could combine
to result in a relaxation of regulatory procedures for assessing the envi­
ronmental risks of deliberate releases.
It refers spec.fically to the US where calls for exempting specific or­
ganisms or traits from regulatory control or from case-by-case scrutiny
hai/e already been made oy industry with some success.

Warning
The forum says: "We do not accept that advances in ecological and
geneuc research will inevitably reduce the need for a case-by-case sys­
tem of regulation".
It makes a further chilling warning when it expresses concern "that
another result of economic pressures will be to encourage some envi­
ronmentally irresponsible uses of genetic engineering.
"The development of herbicide resistant crops is one example".
The danger is that herbicide resistant crops could lead to an increase in
the use of herbicides.
The forum says that at least 15 major chemical multinationals are
working on herbicide resistance.
They are attracted by the simple genetic mechanism involved for
many chemicals, by the economic potential of such crops in industrial­
ized countries, and by the potential correlation between such products
and herbicides produced by the same companies.
The forum goes on to look at the uncertainties involved in genetic
engineering, saying that it carries with it inherent risks.
"While some undesired or unanticipated effects may be detected in
the laboratory or during initial trials, others may be too subtle or may only
be expressed as a result of exposure to particular environmental factors,
which may not be faced during testing."

29
 It then points out that the potential for a genetically engineered or­
ganism to persist in the environment cannot be adequately tested in the
laboratory nor can it be predicted for all environmental conditions.
This factor is important for, as the forum points out, genetically engi­
neered organisms which persist in the environment are more likely to
cause ecological damage by disturbing ecological balances.
There are various ways in which ecological disruption could be
caused by the introduction of genetically engineered organisms into the
environment.
A new pest could be created, harm could he caused to non-target
species and biological communities could be disrupted through competi­
tion or interference or a range of other mechanisms for interaction.
Ecological systems such as nutrient cycling could also be altered
adversely.
For example, a microbe with enhanced ability to degrade lignin or
cellulose could change the rate at which carbon is cycled in the environ­
ment.
The forum draws the conclusion that genetic engineering does have
the potential to deliver goods and services with minimal environmental
impact.
But it is not, and should not, be viewed as a panacea.
It concludes that the government and industry are displaying a lack
of will to accept the responsibilities imposed upon them by the broad
range of social, economic and ethical questions raised by genetic engi­
neering.
Colin Williams, Morning Star

Текст 13

THE AGE OF GENES

The winsome, sable-haired 4-year-old didn't even know she was

making history, or care. By the time of the injection last year, she had
been poked and prodded so often that she could not be bothered to take
her eyes off the cartoon she was watching on TV.
The injection marked the first human trial of gene therapy, a revolu­
tionary means of treating a disease by giving a patient new genes. The
girl suffers from an extremely rare, inherited disorder in which faulty
genes have crippled her immune system, leaving her vulnerable to the
slightest infection or illness. To treat it, her doctors removed immune

30
 cells from her blood, fitted them with a new gene, and reinjected them
into her body. Today, four months after her last dose of the ground­
breaking therapy, the girl's immune system appears to be fending off in­
fections normally.
In the nearly 40 years since James Watson and Francis Crick eluci­
dated the twisting structure of DNA, scientists have probed deeply the
workings of the molecule that governs all living cells. Just in the last
month, researchers have announced the discovery of at least four new
human genes responsible for ailments ranging from deafness to sterility.
And while finding a new gene is only a step toward vanquishing a dis­
ease, says Nobel laureate David Baltimore, president of Rockefeller Uni­
versity, "every disease we know about is either being attacked with ge­
netics or is being illuminated through genetics."
Experiments with gene therapy represent a giant step into the medi­
cine of the future.
Yet for all the good molecular medicine will do, the ethical dilemmas
are grave. The advances bring closer the day wl ten parents can endow
children not only with health but also with genes for height, good balance
or lofty intelligence. Of more immediate concern is the possibility that
health insurers, employers and the government will gain access to ge­
netic information and unfairly discriminate against people on the basis of
their genes.
Charlene Grable, U.S. News & World Report

Текст 14

BUGS SHED LIGHT ON THE OZONE

Meriel Jones examines the use of bacteria to

measure UV rays hitting the planet's surface

ONE vital aspect of depletion of the ozone layer is its effect on the
planet's surface. Concern is now focusing on the increased levels of ul­
traviolet light, but there are difficulties in measuring it. The key thing is to
be able to assess its biological activity, not just the amount in cold physi­
cal terms.
Ultraviolet is the technical term for light in quite a wide band at the
blue end of the spectrum, and it is not all the same when it comes to liv­
ing creatures. Some regions produce suntans, while other parts cause
serious damage to tissues.

31
 In hospitals, operating theatres can be bathed with lethal wave­
lengths of this light to kill germs floating around before an operation.
Researchers know they need a system based on some living or­
ganism to measure what type of UV is reaching the ground and have
experimented with several systems. A group of Germans, working at the
Institute for Aerospace Medicine in Cologne, has come up with a system
that worked well in the laboratory and which the scientists are now test­
ing in Antarctica.
Lothar Quintern and his colleagues are exploiting a group of bacte­
ria which have the unique ability to change into a dormant form called a
spore if the cell starts to run out of food. It is a protective mechanism and
the resting spores can withstand more extreme conditions than the
growing cells while waiting for the cue to switch back to normal growth.
UV light of the right wavelengths will still kill them.
The scientists stuck a thin layer of millions of these tiny spores on to
a polyester film to use as a living UV monitor. To find out the effects of
light all they had to do was see how well the spores responded to their
usual growth triggers. This involved soaking the film in a solution of nu­
trients for a few hours to give the spores the opportunity to resume
growth.
After this, the film could be developed with a blue dye where its in­
tensity was related to the number of growing cells. If the spores no
longer grew, researchers assumed the light had done something nasty to
them.
Their laboratory experiments, using beams of pure UV light, gave
them confidence that the spores were responding in a predictable way.
Shorter wavelength UV light put the spores out of action faster, but even
the milder regions did harm.
In fact, the pattern of damage resembled the way DNA absorbs
light, which scientists know is one reason why UV light can be so lethal.
DNA absorbs this energetic short wavelength light, causing chemical
reactions that can irreversibly damage it. Once its DNA is changed, the
cell is mutated and will probably die. The Germans' biofilm may help
them monitor the effects of the "ozone hole" as well as giving a deeper
insight into why it should be taken so senously.
Meriel Jones, Photochemistry and Photobiology

32
 Текст 15

CUM А ТЕ AND THE RISE OF MAN

The history of human evolution holds sobering lessons
for those gathering at this week's Earth Summit

1. When global warming finally came, it struck with a vengeance. In

some regions temperatures rose several degrees in less than a century.
Sea levels shot up nearly 400 feet, flooding coastal settlements and
forcing people to migrate inland. Deserts spread throughout the world as
vegetation shifted drastically in North America, Europe and Asia. After
driving many of the animals around them to near extinction, people were
forced to abandon their old way of life for a radically new survival strat­
egy that resulted in widespread starvation and disease. The adaptation
was farming; the global warming crisis that gave rise to it happened
more than 10.000 years ago.
Earth scientists are in the midst of a revolution in understanding how
climate has changed in the past - and how those changes have trans­
formed human existence. Researchers have begun to piece together an
illuminating picture of the powerful geological and astronomical forces
that have conspired to change the planet's environment from hot to cold,
wet to dry and back again over a time period stretching back hundreds of
millions of years.
Most important, scientists are beginning to realize that the gyrations
of this climatic dance have had a major impact on the evolution of the
human species. New research now suggests that climate shifts have
played a key role in nearly every significant turning point in human evo­
lution. from the dawn of primates some 65 million years ago to human
ancestors rising up to walk on two legs, from the prodigious expansion of
the human brain to the rise of agriculture. Indeed, the human saga has
not been merely touched by global climate change, some scientists ar­
gue, it has in some instances been driven by it. Among other things, the
findings demonstrate that dramatic climate change is nothing new for
planet Earth. The benign global environment that has existed over the
past 10.000 years - during which agriculture, writing, cities and most
other features of civilization appeared - is a mere blip in a much larger
pattern of widely varying climate over the eons. In fact, the pattern of
climate chance in the past reveals that Earth's climate will almost cer­
tainly go through dramatic changes in the future - even without the influ­
ence of human activity.
At the same time, the research provides little comfort for those who
would like to believe the Earth is a self-regulating machine that can un­

33
 failingly absorb the impact of any human activity. Over Earth's history,
tiny alterations in the positions of the continents, the flow of air currents
and other influences on the world's weather sometimes cascaded into
huge changes in global climate. If the study of prehistory is any guide, a
large shift in climate is likely to bring a fundamental change in the nature
of human life.
If not for a dramatic climate shift some 65 million years ago, most of
the animals on Earth today - including humans - would probably not
even be here. Scientists have long suspected that a giant meteor col­
lided with the Earth at that point in time, sending huge clouds of climate-
altering dust into the atmosphere. The recent discovery in the Caribbean
of tiny nuggets of glass whose chemical makeup suggests that they were
formed in the heat of such a cosmic collision lends new support to the
theory.
2. Breadfruit in Greenland. Scientists find evidence that in the
heyday of the dinosaurs, 100 million years ago, the world was 10 to 14
degrees warmer than it is today. Breadfruit trees grew in what is now
Greenland and dinosaurs wandered an ice-free Antarctica. In the wake
of the meteor's impact, dinosaurs vanished in massive numbers, leaving
the world wide open for colonization by mammals, including a small,
shrew like creature that was the ancient ancestor of humans.
Most shifts in Earth's climate have not been so sudden or dramatic.
But even slowly changing environments have had an enormous influ­
ence on the evolution of the human species. After the demise of the di­
nosaurs, for instance, the Earth continued to grow cooler for tens of mil­
lions of years. The cooling resulted from the slow absorption into the
Earth of atmospheric carbon dioxide through the weathering of rock,
suggests Yale University's Robert Berner, who recently used computer
modeling to show how carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere have
changed over the past 600 million years. Because carbon dioxide traps
heat to create the so-called greenhouse effect, over time the reduction in
CO 2 in the Earth's atmosphere made the global temperature drop sev­
eral degrees.
This gradual cooling helped set the stage for a crucial phase of hu­
man evolution: the beginning of upright walking. Ever since Darwin, an­
thropologists have speculated that our ancestors rose onto two legs in
order to free their hands for some uniquely human activity, such as
making tools. But Peter Rodman and Henry McHenry of the University of
California at Davis argue instead that the first bipeds were trying to
maintain their apelike lifestyle amid environmental change.
New evidence indicates that the Earth's cooling climate caused the
dense forests that blanketed Africa to break up into clumps of trees

34
 separated by open patches of grassy savanna. Geochemist Thure Cer-
ling of the University of Utah has pioneered a technique that measures
tiny amounts of carbon left behind in the soil as plants died. Grasses
leave a different chemical "signature" in the soil than do trees. By ana­
lyzing the composition of ancient soils, Cerling has discovered that
grasses began to appear and spread in Africa about 7 million years ago.
The African environment’s gradual shift to a patchwork of forests
and plains made walking on two legs an ideal way for human ancestors
to move about, Rodman and McHenry contend. Analyzing how much
energy various animals use as they walk, the researchers calculated that
walking upright is a more efficient way to travel long distances than is
walking on the feet and knuckles in the manner of chimps and gorillas.
They conclude that our ancestors rose up on two legs not in order to
make tools - which do not appear in the archaeological record until more
than a million years later - but because walking was simply an easier
way for the tree-loving creatures to travel from one clump of forest to an­
other.
One of Earth's most dramatic climatic shifts coincided almost exactly
with the most important turn in human evolution: the emergence of the
first large-brained primate. An analysis of the chemical makeup of sea-
shells taken from the deep sea floor suggests that about 2.5 million
years ago, Earth's temperature dipped suddenly and dramatically. The
rapid cooling appears to have been global in scope: For the first time in
Earth's history, an icecap formed at the North Pole, and the continents
became drier and dustier.
3. Himalayan highs. One cause of the cold snap may have been
the skyward thrusting of the Himalaya Mountains, which began rising
when the Indian subcontinent collided with Asia some 40 million years
before. Using a computer simulation of the flow of air currents around the
world, William Ruddiman of Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty
Geological Observatory and John Kutzbach of the University of Wiscon­
sin found that by 2.5 million years ago, the Himalayas' peaks lowered
high enough to alter the flow of major air currents in the Northern Hemi­
sphere, significantly shifting weather patterns.
The drying of Africa opened the way for new kinds of life to emerge,
Yale University paleontologist Elisabeth Vrba points out that African fos­
sils from several species of animals indicate a dramatic change at pre­
cisely the same time as the climate shift. Many kinds of antelopes that
made their home in woody environments, for example, suddenly disap­
peared about 2.5 million years ago and were replaced by new types of
antelopes that lived in more open, grassy landscapes. Similarly, various
rodent species that thrived in wet environments became extinct and were
replaced by new kinds of rodents that thrived in drier climates.
35
 Vrba argues that this "pulse" of climate change 2.5 million years ago
also created conditions that caused ancient human forebears to undergo
a burst of biological innovation, "Our ancestors behaved like perfect
rnammals," says Vrba. The fossil record shows that at about that time,
the species of human ancestor that had existed for more than a million
years disappeared, and three or possibly four new upright primates
emerged. One of these, a creature that chipped stones to make tools, is
the first to be called homo.
With the onset of cooler temperatures some 2.5 million years ago,
Earth suddenly entered a whole new pattern of cyclical climate change
that acted as an "evolutionary pump," causing the brains of ancient hu-
pians to grow larger and larger. Before that landmark, large shifts in
Earth's climate typically were the result of geologic processes that took
place over millions of years. After 2,5 million years ago, however, the
global climate pattern suddenly became much more sensitive to minor
perturbations in Earth's orbit and in the tilt of E arth's axis as it circled the
sun.
4. Glacial cycles. These astronomical cycles have caused Earth's
climate to fluctuate rapidly between long periods of cold lasting 50,000 to
80.000 years and shorter periods of warmth lasting, on average, about
10.000 years. During the colder periods, the Earth has been locked in
ice, with glaciers extending far into Europe, Asia and North America, sea
levels falling dramatically and the land masses near the equator becom­
ing cooler and drier, in the warmer, "interglacial" periods - the Earth js in
one today - the glaciers retreat and the climate becomes more temper­
ate. Earth has undergone at least 15 such cycles since about 1.6 million
years ago, and if this climate pattern holds, another chilly plunge into
glaciation is due to arrive within 2,000 years or so.
Some scientists suggest that these rapid shifts between warm and
cold were the driving force behind the human species' ballooning brain.
The periods of warm, wet climate caused a population boom among our
ancestors, argues neuroscientist William Calvin of the University of
Washington. Then a new bout of cold weather would arrive, bringing
harsh conditions that would winnow out all but the most intelligent crea­
tures. When the "boom times" came again, these brainier human an­
cestors would grow in number, increasing their percentage in the overall
population. The last time the Earth was as warm as it is today began
about 125,000 years ago - a period that lasted roughly 10,000 years
before another cold snap set in. Intriguingly, the first fossils of Homo
sapiens - anatomically modern humans - come from about this time.
Even after modern humans had established themselves throughout
much of the world some 30,000 years ago, the waxing and waning of
Earth's glaciers continued to have a major impact on how they con­
36
 ducted their lives. As the world was plunged into a harsher climate, hu­
man societies appear to have responded with increasing complexity.
Some researchers believe that the magnificent artwork that graces the
cave walls of Europe, for instance, was part of a spiritual or religious re­
action to the difficult conditions caused when the huge glaciers reached
their southernmost point 18,000 years ago.
Though the rise of agriculture is sometimes depicted as an "inven­
tion" that was a pivotal step forward in human progress, it was more
likely a last-ditch effort for survival in a rapidly deteriorating environment
caused when the giaciers bogan to recede again 15,000 years ago, ar­
gues anthropologist Ofer Bar-Yosef of Harvard University. It was then
that the human race got its first real taste of global warming. Sea levels
rose nearly 400 feet in some areas, cutting off Alaska from Siberia and
New Guinea from Australia. The tundra that had covered much of
Europe, Asia and North America was replaced by forest and grass,
leaving the climate much like today's.
The changes wrought by global warming were acutely felt in the Le­
vant, an area in the Middle East now occupied by Israel, Syria, Lebanon
and Jordan. Some 15,000 years ago, the Levant, was a lush hill country
filled with a bounty of plants and animals, making it easy for humans to
hunt and gather the food they needed to thrive. But as the world became
warmer, the region experienced repeated droughts, and vegetation
shifted northward. One group of hunter-gatherers who lived in the Le­
vant, the Natufians, became increasingly hemmed in by the mountains to
the north and spreading deserts to the south and east. According to Bar-
Yosef, the Natufians responded to their ever diminishing range by aban­
doning their wandering ways and settling down, though they continued to
hunt and gather food.
Bar-Yosefs theory is buttressed by new research by Daniel Lieber-
man of Harvard University, who examined the patterns of growth in the
fossilized teeth of gazelles at sites in the Levant. Lieberman found that
sites made by the Natufians' immediate predecessors contain the re­
mains of gazelles that were killed in only a single season, such as the
spring or fall. At Natufian sites, however, the gazelle remains are from
animals that were killed year-round, indicating that the Natufians were
living at a permanent camp. It is at about this time also that fossils of the
"house" mouse began to appear at Natufian sites.
4. A time to sow. Just as the Natufians were adjusting to a new
sedentary life in their drier environment, however, they suddenly were hit
by another bout of climate change, this time to much cooler tempera­
tures. Scientists are still unsure why, but about 11,000 years ago the
Earth's climate returned to a glacial climate ror пеачу 1,000 years. The
environment in the Levant quickly grew cooler, changing the plant and
37
 animal life, and the Natufians found themselves with a tough choice,
says Bar-Yosef: They had to either begin moving again or find a new
source of food. The Natufians started cultivating grains to survive.
The Natufian's shift to agriculture required no grand technological
breakthroughs, argues Bar-Yosef. Despite their hunting-and-gathering
lifestyle, the ancient people of the Levant appear to have been familiar
for millenniums with cereals and grains: Scientists recently unearthed
grains of wild barley at a newly discovered archaeological site in Israel
that dates back 19,000 years.
The rapid swings of climate that occurred between 13,000 and
10,000 years ago - and the shift to agriculture that resulted from them -
must have created a wrenching change in how people lived. After all,
people had been hunting and gathering for as long as modern humans
had walked the Earth. Research by Mark Cohen, an anthropologist at the
State University of New York at Pittsburgh, suggests that the first farm­
ers suffered malnutrition, vitamin deficiencies and a host of new dis­
eases that arose because of their sedentary ways. Social life changed,
too, since people could no longer simply walk away from disputes and so
had to devise new social strategies for resolving conflicts. The increasing
reliance on stored goods meant that for the first time people had posses­
sions that could be stolen, creating the need for defensive walls and mili­
tia.
5. Out of Eden. One of the epic "origin" tales to come out of the re­
gion - the biblical book of Genesis - speaks of humans being expelled
from a garden of plenty and being punished by having to "eat the herb of
the field" and "in the sweat of thy face ... eat bread." Yet for all of the
troubles that farming at first caused the Natufians and their descendants,
they had no choice but to adopt it, says Bar-Yosef. And once they did,
there was no turning back: Farming produces more food per acre than
hunting and gathering, and the sedentary life led to a population boom
that could then be supported only by tilling the earth. As the world began
to warm again about 10,000 years ago, the Natufian sites suddenly bal­
looned to nearly 25 times their previous size.
A yearning to return to an Eden-like existence seems to be an un­
spoken theme among some environmentalists, who see modern human
civilization as a blight on Earth's landscape. But as the new findings on
climate and human evolution demonstrate, there was no point in time
when humans and Mother Nature lived in perfect harmony. From walking
on two legs to making the first stone tools, from harnessing fire to settling
down in farming villages, humans have always had to change their ways
to cope with changing climate.
Whether the Earth's climate will shift dramatically in the near future
as a result of human activities remains uncertain. But if the new research
38
on climate and human evolution reveals anything, it is that if Earth's cli­
mate does radically change, the way humans live is likely to change in
radical ways, too.
U. S. News & World Report

Текст 16

INTERPRETING: PERILS OF PALAVER

PARIS - When a Japanese sucks in his breath and tells a West­

erner that "your proposal is very interesting and we will consider it care­
fully" - meaning, in a word, "no!" - what is the honest interpreter to say?
The answer is that the professional interpreter is duty bound to re­
port the words of the Japanese as faithfully as possible. But according to
Gisela Siebourg, who regularly interprets for Chancellor Helmut Kohl of
Germany, it would also be legitimate for the interpreter to draw his or her
client aside after the conversation and explain the complexities of Japa­
nese double-speak.
It would depend nn the degree of trust between client and inter­
preter, she said.
This illustrates the need for the interpreter to be taken into the cli­
ent's confidence, Siebourg said. It also indicates the qualities required of
an interpreter - the discretion of a priest in the confessional and the
mental subtlety of a professional diplomat. Rule number one for the in­
terpreter, she said, is never to repeat outside a meeting what was
learned in it.
Siebourg is president of the International Association of Conference
Interpreters - set up in Paris in 1953 with 60 members, and now includ­
ing 2,200 members - which is holding its triannual assembly here this
week.
The association, which has worked since its inception to raise the
standing of the interpreter's calling, thinks a lot about such ethical issues,
as well as seeking better working conditions for its members.
The profession is at least as old as the Book of Genesis in which
Joseph outwitted his brothers by, as the book says, speaking "unto them
by an interpreter.” But the modern practice of simultaneous interpretation
through headphones dates only from the postwar Nuremburg trials and
the formation of the United Nations.
Before that, even in the League of Nations, speakers had to pause
at intervals to allow the interpretation - a process known as consecutive

39
 interpretation. This is still the method most often used in tete-a-tete con­
versations.
The method is not suitable for large modem conferences at which
several languages are used simultaneously. The nine official languages
of the European Community, for example, allow for 72 permutations, re­
quiring teams of at least 27 interpreters, each capable of speaking three
or four languages.
Interpreting often is, but ought not to be, confused with translating.
The translator has time and a battery of dictionaries at his or her com­
mand in order to find the precise wora. The interpreter, by contrast, has
to get across the right meaning rather than the exact wording without a
second's hesitation. This often requires a deep knowleage of culture as
well as language, an ability to understand expression as well as content.
Diplomats such as Fore.gn Minister Tariq Aziz of Iraq, who speaks
excellent English, often work through interpreters either to conceal pre­
cise meaning or to give themselves time to think, Siebourg said. In such
cases, the interpreter must be careful not to go beyond the speakers'
words, even if they make apparently little sense. As Confucius put it, "If
language is not in axordance with the truth of things, affairs cannot be
carried on to success."
Being used as part of a negotiating ploy again points to the need for
the interpreter to be taken into the diplomat's confidence. The interpret­
ers' association always tells clients that "if you are not prepared to trust
an interpreter with confidential information, don't use one." The failure to
provide in advance background information and specialized terminology
involved in complex negotiations makes the interpreters' job all the more
difficult, Siebourg said.
For the first time, the association - speaking either in English or
French, its two working languages - is discussing improved contacts
with colleagues in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe now that the
East is opening up. One difficulty is that the East European languages
often contain no terminology to describe many of the private market
terms used in the West.
Soviet interpreters also have the practice of working from their own
language into a foreign language, while most Western interpreters, Sie­
bourg said, prefer to work from a foreign language into their mother
tongue.
This avoids the kind of gaffes that can occur with less than intimate
knowledge of a language. When Jimmy Carter visited Warsaw in De­
cember 1977, for example, he made the mistake of using a Polish­
speaking American as interpreter rather than an English-speaking Pole,
Siebourg said.

40
 The result is that the interpreter, a State Department contract em­
ployee, spoke about sexual lust rather than desire and rephrased Car­
ter's "when I left the United States" into "when I abandoned the United
States.” The embarrassment was long remembered.
Barry James, International Herald Tribune

Текст 17

,
EUPHEMISMS A CHALLENGED MARKET

WASHINGTON - Lets say you're trying to peddle some fake flow­

ers. Do you call yourself a fake-flower peddler? Of course not; you're a
floral marketer, artificial-flower division. Now you look at yuur product -
sometimes quite beautiful, petals made of silk or whatever - and you ask
yourself, "Why artificial?" That's a word that turns buyers off. You brood
about that, and come up with a fresh-as-a-d aisy answer: You’ll create a
market for permanent flowers. That not only lends longevity to your pro­
duce, but it also knocks the noxious weeds turned out in hothouses and
pesticide-ridden, inorganic, fertilizer-driven gardens as temporary flow­
ers.
That's the art, or racket, of euphemism, from the Greek eu-, “good,”
and pheme, "speech." And ifs been gaining speed ever since environ­
mentalists were able to transform the damn jungle into the glorious rain
forest (where you can get wetlands fever).
Some objects of green wrath, lumbermen and fishermen, counter­
attacked with euphemisms of their own. "The timber industry speaks of
harvesting trees on public lands, the fishing industry of harvesting fish
from the ocean," grumps Ray Sawhill of New York. "My understanding is
that in order to harvest you have to have first reaped." Maybe he means
sown; at any rate, if you have planted the trees, or raised the fish from
caviar, you could then harvest them, although "harvest" is not a term that
goes well outside the vegetable world.
No newspaper can be held responsible, however, for the prose pret-
tification in its advertising. If you're appealing to a snooty clientele, you
hate to use the word sa/e; nice stores don't have sales. If it's cheap but it
hasn't been marked down you call it a special purchase. Or, if you're the
Artium Gallery on Fifth Avenue, "Join us for our current anniversary ex­
hibition o f master jewelers and receive a 10 percent accommodation."
Even the most innocent words, when they take on a taint, are
quickly euphemized. The Miss America contest, eager to shed any hint

41
 of royalism, now forbids the use of reign to denote the period in which
here-she-comes holds the title; her once-reign is now "a year of service."
No longer need Shakespeare's Edmund, in "King Lear," cry, "Now,
gods, stand up for bastards!" As Ben Wattenberg has written of those
born on the wrong side of the blanket: "It was once called bastardy. Then
illegitim acy. Then out-of-wedlok birth. And now, frequently, wholly sani­
tized, nor/m arital birth." (He left out love child.)
"Do you do euphemisms?" writes Ben Bradlee, The Washington
Post's vice president at-large. (In my view, the hyphen makes the words
mean "not confined to a specific assignment"; without the hyphen, it
would mean "sought after by the police,") He cited a broadcast by Peter
Jennings of ABC when Yasser Arafat's plane was missing: "if something
has befallen him in a terminal way..."
Because the word lying is off-putting to some, we have seen some
prettification under oath. Oliver North denied lying to Congress, but ad­
mitted he had "provided input which differed radically from the truth." And
Roger Le Locataire notes from Ponders End London, that British officials
caught telling half-truths or otherwise deceiving the court admit they
have been economical with the truth.
In politics, the Clinton administration has made it linguistic policy to
refer to the taxes necessitated by its health plan as premiums, which
most people associate with insurance policies. Others say that if the
payment is mandatory, it’s a tax, which has become a political dirty word.
Almost as dirty as guns. When Richard Nixon came out with "Guns
are an abomination," advocates for unrestricted sale of the things that
shoot bullets searched for a euphemism. A reader of a Minneapolis, city
magazine, Mpls. St. Paul, wrote to the editor to assert that "thousands
have saved themselves, contrary to the myth of the danger of a home-
protection weapon." Jason Zweig of Forbes magazine objects to this
euphemism: "I don't think it can transform a gun into a mom-and-apple-
pie product. You can call a bullet a criminal-impairment projectile, but
that will never blind the mind's eye to the ferocious furrowing of metal
through flesh and bone."
William Safire, International Herald Tribune

42
 Текст 18

A WELCOME FOR FOREIGN INVESTORS

Whether they make light bulbs, cars or cookies, many international

manufacturing companies have moved into Hungary since 1990. Hun­
gary was the first former communist country in Eastern Europe to estab­
lish the legal framework necessary for a free-market system. This cre­
ated confidence among major international companies, which have now
poured more than $7 billion into the country, making Hungary the re-
ceipient of half c f all the foreign investment that has come into Eastern
Europe.
The giant U.S. corporation General Electric led the way. Toward the
end of 1989, GE began negotiating for the purchase of Tungsram, the
state-owned electric light bulb manufacturer. GE then set about restruc­
turing the company, investing heavily in a new plant, improving efficiency
through intensive staff training and, inevitably, cutting jobs.
Since 1990, GE has invested over $600 million in Tungsram. (This
was the largest foreign investment in Hungary unlil the Magyarcom con­
sortium of Ameritech and Deutsche Bundespost Telekom took a 30.2
percent stake in Matav, the Hungarian Telephone Company.)
Tungsram's work force shrank from over 18,000 to just 9,500, but the
company started to recruit about 1,000 new workers in 1994. GE closed
two plants in England and one in Austria this year and shifted production
to Hungary. After four hard years, Tungsram has turned serious losses
into a small profit, and the 1994 figures are expected to show further im­
provements.

Car manufacturing
The automotive industry has moved into Hungary in force. Previ­
ously, Hungary was known for its heavy engineering, producing trucks
and coaches. Now Ford, Suzuki, General Motors and, most recently,
Audi have all set up manufacturing operations, taking advantage of the
availability of skilled workers.
These early birds won large tax concessions from the government,
incli ding 100 percent tax holidays for five years (with all profits rein­
vested in the country), and a 60 percent tax break for a further five years.
Hunguard is a division of the Michigan-based Guardian Industries.
In 1988, this glass manufacturer set up a joint venture with the Hungar­
ian Glass Works in Oroshaza, southern Hungary. The plant uses float
glass technology to make precision panes for architectural use, mirrors,
picture frames and the automotive industry. Altogether, Guardian has

43
injected $70 million in capital into the plant, buying out the joint venture
partner.
"There is very good potential in Hungary," says Rolf Stub, Hun-
guard's finance director. "With a good capital base, there is good oppor­
tunity to grow a successful business."

Capital needed
Mr. Stub points out that the high cost of borrowing means high
capitalisation is vital to carry a company througn difficult times. Hunguard
exports up to 75 percent of its output, and Hungary's central position
within Europe and good transport links have helped cut costs and im­
prove competitiveness against other European glass makers.
Beginnmg in 1995, companies will have a further incentive to set up
in Hungary. The corporate tax rate in Hungary will be one of the lowest in
Europe. The tax law has not actually reached the statute books, but cor­
poration tax is due to be halved from its present 36 percent rate to 18
percent. There will be a 25 percent with holding tax on profits that are
repatriated.
Andre Friedmann, tax partner at KPMG in Budapest, points out that
the large number of tax treaties Hungary has W ith other countries often
reduces this tax. "Companies based in, say, tne U.K., that own moie
than 25 percent of a company in Hungary wiK pay just 5 percent on prof­
its taken out of the country,” says Mr. Friedmann.
Lucy Hooker, International Herald Tribune

Текст 19
KOREA EXECUTIVES GUILTY OF BRIBERY
SEOUL - Three prominent South Korean industrialists were con­
victed Tuesday of bribery charges by a Seoul criminal court, but their
sentences were suspended because of their "contributions" to the coun­
try's economy.
Kim Woo Choong, chairman of Daewoo Group Corp., Choi Won
Suk, chairman of Dang Ah Construction Industrial Co., and Park Ki Suk,
chairman of Samsung Engineerihg & Construction Co., were convicted
of bribing a former head of state-run company to win construction con­
tracts. They were placed on probation for two years.
But the court gave a three-year prison sentence to Ahn Byung Wha,
former chief of Korea Electric Power Corp., who received $875 million in
bribes while awarding contracts for a $2 billion power plant.
International Herald Tribune
44
 Текст 20

TCI AND SUMITOMO FORM CABLE VENTURE

Tele-Communications Inc. said it haa formed a joint venture with

Sumitomo Corp. to create the first cable television in Japan that could
also provide cable telephone services, Bloomberg Business News re­
ported.
Tele-Communications said the venture, to be called Jupiter Tele­
communications, would manage and operate cable television systems.
As soon as Jupiter receives regulatory approval, it also plans to provide
cable telephone service. Sumitomo will own 60 percent of the venture.
International Herald Tribune

Текст 21

MORE BAD NEWS FOR JAPAN'S ECONOMY

TOKYO - Casting fresh doubt on the Japanese economy's pros­
pects for quick recovery, the government reported Tuesday that the na­
tions economy shrank at a 2.0 percent annual rate in the second quarter
of this year.
The report of the contraction in the gross national product, the
broadest measure of a nation's output of goods and services, coincided
with an announcement that Japan's trade surplus expanded 7.5 percent
in August to $7.54 billion.
The numbers added to a string of indicators in recent weeks that
portray an economy slipping into lower gear, increasingly at risk of the
wrath of trading partners and further appreciation of the yen. They also
underscore the power of deflationary pressures weighing down the
economy after the speculative excesses of the 1980s, and raise suspi­
cions about whether a long-awaited pump-pnming package due on
Thursday can do more than prevent a more pronounced decline.
"It's hard to put these numbers in a positive light," Peter Morgan,
senior economist at Merlin Lynch in Japan, told Bloomberg Business
News. "With GNP contracting and the trade surplus rising, everything's
going the wrong way."
The economic stimulation program, expected to boast a headline
figure of up to 6 trillion yen ($56.6 billion), will earmark funds for public
works spending and low-interest loans to help home buyers and small

45
 companies. The spending will be coupled with plans to deregulate the
economy, promote imports and pass on the benefits of the strong yen to
consumers. Prime Minister Morihiro Hosokawa, who will hold his first
summit meeting with President Bill Clinton later this month, will point to
the program as strong medicine to revive the languid Japanese econ­
omy.
Private-sector economists, however, say the real impact of the pro­
gram will be a fraction of the advertised figure, perhaps as little as 1 tril­
lion yen.
"The package will provide a safety net and probably prevent a
deeper slide, but it's mostly just announcement effect," said Mineko Sa-
saki-Smith, chief economist in Tokyo for Morgan Stanley & Co. "It won't
be sufficient to convince the Americans that things will change."
Doubts about the forthcoming program are wide-spread. This is in
part because spending packages over the past 13 months, which
pumped a purported 23.9 trillion yen into the economy, have failed to
offset the strong deflationary pressures set on by the bursting of Japan's
economic bubble three years ago.
The annualised 2.0 percent contraction in GNP for the April-June
quarter reinforced the perception that Japan's economy had moved into
a lower gear. The Economic Planning Agency blamed sluggishness in
consumer spending and capital investment and a slowdown in exports
due to the high yen.
"The economy is dragging at rock bottom," the agency's deputy
minister, Tsutomu Tanaka, said. B jt he said the government held to its
scenario that the economy would recover over the next six months.
Private-sector economists disagreed, saying gross national product
in the July-September quarter was likely to contract further, postponing
hopes of recovery until mid-1994. "It's a continuous, prolonged reces­
sion, made worse by the recent strengthening of the yen," Ms. Sasaki-
Smith said She predicted that Japan's GNP would register no growth in
the fiscal year through next March.
The political risks of the slowdown were reinforced as the Finance
Ministry reported that Japan's trade surplus rose 7.5 percent in August,
compared with August 1992, to $7.54 billion.
Sleven Brull, International Herald Tribune

46
 Текст 22

INDEX OF WELL-BEING HITS A 20-YEAR LOW

NEW YORK - Increases in child abuse and child poverty have
driven the nation's social well-being to its lowest point in two decades,
according to a study released Monday by social scientists at Fordham
University.
The scientists also evaluated Americans' confidence in their quality
of life, and they said it was strikingly low. The seventh annual report,
"The Index of Social Health," tries to monitor the well-being of American
society by examining statistics from reports by the Census Bureau on 16
major social problems, including teenage suicide, unemployment, drug
abuse, the high-school dropout rate and the lack of affordable housing.
Aided by a computer model, the researchers use the statistics from
the 16 categories to reach a single figure between 0 to 100, which they
call the index of social health.
The first year for which the scientists measured social health, 1970,
had an index of 75, which the researchers said was above average. But
in 1991, the most recent year for which complete data was available, the
index was 36, down from 42 in 1990 and less than half the highest index
rating of 79 in 1972.
The 1991 figure is "awful," said Marc L. Miringoff, the author of the
study and the director of the Fordham University Institute for Innovation
in Social Policy in Tarrytown, New York.
"These results reveal as much about what is happening to us as the
economic indicators that we watch closely every day," he said.
Two major reasons for the drop, Mr. Miringoff said, are that child
abuse reached its worst recorded level and that the number of children
living in poverty reached its worst level since 1983.
Also eroding society's health was a decline in average weekly earn­
ings, he said. "The decline in the economy has much to do with the de­
cline in our social health," Mr. Miringoff said
A new feature of the report, the Index of Social Confidence, polled
1,200 Americans to show how they evaluate national performance in ar­
eas that shape the quality of life: education, health care, safety, occupa­
tion and living standard.
The result was a confidence index of 34, which Mr. Miringoff called
disturbingly low. He said the respondents to the survey saw serious
problems in the nation's social well-being and were pessimistic about the
future.
International Herald Tribune

47
 Текст 23

RUSSIA SCANS THE STARS AND ,

THE FUTURE IS MOSTLY BAD

Astrology Booms in Russia

MOSCOW - In Russia, astrologers do not sugarcoat the news.

"Today is a largely dangerous day," one recent, typical horoscope
warned from the pages of the newspaper Kommersant.
"You may end up broke," one warning goes. "This day is entirely
unsuitable for undertakings of any sort."
The next day may not be any better: "Fraud, cheating and crooked
deals are only a small fraction of the troubles that threaten to disrupt all
your plans today," another Kommersant chart began.
Banned in Soviet days as beneath the dignity of scientific Marxism,
astrology has caught on in a big way in the new Russia. Russians may
hear their future on the radio, see it on television, call for a personalised
account by telephone or read it in almost any newspaper or magazine.
Even in the official government newspaper Rossiskie Vesti, there is
a horoscope devoted entirely to health: 'Your health reserves are low," it
warned one day. "You may have problems with your spine," it added. Or,
"It would be best to refrain from sexual relations. Diseases beginning
today may last a long time."
Even when the signs are auspicious, Russian astrologers can find a
downside.
"A growing energy field during this week will be a stimulus for ac­
tion," the astrologer of Moskovsky Komsomolets predicted recently. "But
if you don't surrender to its influence, the result may be a serious dis­
ease or nervous breakdown."
It is no oecret, of course, that Americans love happy endings - to
the point of childishness, many Russians say - while Russians enjoy
wallowing in the trough of despondency. No one curls up with a bowl of
popcorn and "The Brothers Karamazov" to cheer up.
Neither is there any question that many Russians' lives are exceed­
ingly troubled.
If you fight for the communal toilet every morning, get splattered by
street slush every day and scrimp on sugar for your tea each evening,
you may justifiably feel sceptical of a rosy horoscope
But the difference in astrological approach raises questions: Are the
planets really so different over the Western Hemisphere? Are American
astrologers lying to spare their readers pain? Or could it be that Rus-

48
sians are unhappy, at least in part, because they read their horoscopes
too faithfully?
"It can be pretty pessimistic," acknowledged Yelena Myasnikova,
chief editor of the Russian edition of Cosmopolitan.
In the current issue of that magazine, for example, Tamara Globa
listed the "fortunate" days in November and December, a total of 12, and
the "negative" days, 28 in all. "We're not very happy about that, because
we want Cosmopolitan to be a very optimistic magazine," Ms. Myasnik­
ova said. "But when you're dealing with a famous person, a real authority
in the field, of course it's very difficult to say: 'Don't write what you really
think. Write that everything will turn out O .K .'"
Ms. Globa appears to be in no danger of that. "November is the
hardest month," she warned Aquarians. "It will bring the loss of friends
and protectors, hostility and deceit, and problems with your parents. Be
careful about your health.”
Valery Ledovskikh, the pen name of the astrologer who writes
weekly in Kommersant, Russia's leading business newspaper, would
have his readers simply wait for another day.
"All attempts to interfere with the natural course of events and to
change it for the better will lead to no good results," he wrote on one re­
cent gloomy day.
"The only thing you can do," he added, "is tighten up security on
your delivery trucks."
International Herald Tribune

Текст 24

TUNGUSKA COMES DOWN TO EARTH

Few natural events this century have excited as much popular sci­
entific interest as the gigantic explosion that rocked the Siberian taiga
near the Tunguska river on the morning of 30 June 1908. Second only to
the Loch Ness monster and Bigfoot in the popular science press, the
Tunguska explosion has moved otherwise reputable scientists to pro­
pose explanations ranging from antimatter meteorites to mini black holes
to near-critical fissionable masses. One theory popular in 1930s Russia
attributed it to the explosion of a nuclear powered (!) spacecraft. And the
UFO explanation seems prevalent in some quarters even today. How­
ever, serious scientific study has been converging on a more prosaic
explanation wrapped up by Chyba and colleagues.

49
 At its simplest, this explanation holds that the Tunguska explosion
was caused by the fall of a large meteorite that broke up and deposited
its energy in atmospheric blast waves before reaching the ground. The
essentials of this picture were established by L.A. Kulik, who made the
first on-site investigations of the explosion in the years 1927-30. Kulik
attributed some boggy depressions near the explosion site to meteorite
impacts, a proposal that was later discredited. No impact crater or large
meteorite fragments were ever found at Tunguska.
Kulik's work was refined by E.L. Krinov, who proposed that the ex­
plosion was created by a comet. The idea of a cometary impactor was
strongly supported by more recent work, although the density of the re­
quired comet is very small, 0,01-0,001 g cm-3. Compared to the density
of roughly 0,6-1,0 g cm-3 reported for comet Hailey. This would make
the Tunguska object decidedly unusual. However, Chris Chyba, Paul
Thomas and Kevin Zahnle now argue that a full consideration of the dy­
namics of a meteorite traversing the atmosphere shows that the Tun­
guska explosion is fully compatible with the entry of a roughly 30-m di­
ameter meteorite of the common stony class.
H.J. Melosh, Monthly Nature

The 1908 Tunguska Explosion: Atmospheric Disruption of a

Stony Asteroid
The explosion over Tunguska, Central Siberia, in 1908 released 10
to 20 megatons (high explosive equivalent) of energy at an altitude of
about 10 km. This event represents a typical fate for stony asteroids tens
of meters in radius entering the Earth's atmosphere at common hyper­
sonic velocities. Comets and carbonaceous asteroids of the appropriate
energy disrupt too high, whereas typical iron objects reach and crater the
terrestrial surface.

Light Nights over Eurasia

Widespread "light nights" were observed over Eurasia for the first
few nights after the Tunguska event. The Tungliska explosion may have
lofted enough material high enough to account for the European "light
nights".
Ch. F. Chyba, Paul J. Thomas & Kevin J. Zahnle, Monthly Nature

50
 Текст 25

CHANGING YOUR GENES

"Biology is destiny." Though the years have been unkind to Sigmund

Freud's thought, that notion sounds fresher now than when he said it. In
the 1950s the threads of destiny were given form when Crick and Wat­
son elucidated the double-helix structure of DNA. In the 1960s the lan­
guage of genes, in which the messages stored on DNA are written, was
translated, biology, and much else, began to change. Genes are blamed
for everything from cancer to alcoholism. People worry about being
made ineligible for jobs because of disease susceptibilities they never
knew they had; fetuses are aborted because of faults in their genes;
criminals are defined by the bar-codes of their genetic fingerprints.
At first glance, genetic therapy - the nascent art of giving sick peo­
ple new genes to alleviate their illness - looks like the apotheosis of this
trend towards reducing human life to a few short sequences of DNA. But
although its advent means people will be talking in the language of
genes even more than they already do, the way they talk will change.
They will not be passively reading out the immutable genetic lore passed
down from generation to generation. They will not be receiving orders;
they will be giving them The birth of genetic therapy marks the begin­
ning of an age in which man has the power to take control of his genes
and make of them what he will.

New promises, new threats, old answers

At the moment, gene therapy is a small field on the fringes of medi­
cine and biotechnology. Genes carry descriptions of proteins, the mole­
cules that do most of the body's work; if someone is missing a gene,
they will be missing a protein, and may thus suffer a deficiency or dis­
ease. If a gene or set of genes runs amok, cancer can result. The gene-
therapists aim to provide the body with genes to make good its deficien­
cies and problems. If their field had grown as fast as the stacks of ethical
reports and regulatory procedures that surround it, it would already be
big business. As it is, after years of discussion, it is only now starting to
blossom. Therapies are being tried on people around the world (though
in tiny numbers) and new ways of delivering genes are being devised. A
torrent of raw material for tomorrow's therapies is flowing from the hu­
man genome programme, which plans to have a description of every
gene and every scrap of DNA found in the body by the early years of the
next century.
Many hear echoes of eugenics at every mention of the gene, and
look at this progress with fear. Present research, though, provides no

51
 cause for alarm, just an occasion for the routine caution with which all
medical advances must be treated. From one point of view, gene thera­
pies are transplants; from another, they are just drug treatments with the
added twist that the drug is being made inside the body. There already
exist sets of rules for trying out drugs. The question of the drug's prove­
nance is of secondary importance, as long as its manufacture can be
shown to be sate. Experimental gene therapy has satisfied regulators on
that count, so far.
"So far", though, is only the beginning. Beyond today's gene ther­
apy, which is a specialized form of medicine not that dissimilar to others,
lie far more controversial possibilities: changing genes for non-medical
reasons, and changing genes wholesale in such a way that the new
genes are passed on from generation to generation. At present, thera­
pists aim at genes that are clearly villains, and the therapies last at most
as long as the patient, and often only as long as a transient set of cells.
But what of genes that might make a good body better, rather than make
a bad one good? Should people be able to retrofit themselves with extra
neurotransmitters, to enhance various mental powers? Or to change the
colour of their skin? Or to help them run faster, or lift heavier weights?
Yes, they should. Within some limits, people have a right to make
what they want of their lives. The limits should disallow alterations clearly
likely to cause harm to others. Even if the technology allowed it, people
should not be allowed to become psychopaths at will, or to alter their
metabolism so that they are permanently enraged. Deciding which al­
terations sit in this forbidden category would have to be done case by
case, and in some cases the toss may be passionately argued. But so it
is with all constrains on freedom. Minimal constraint is as good a princi­
ple in genetic law as in any other.
People may make unwise choices. Though that could cause them
grief, it will be remediable. That which can be done, can be undone;
people need no more be slaves to genes they have chosen than to
genes they were born with. To keep that element of choice, however,
one thing must be out of bounds. No one should have his genes
changed without his informed consent; to force genetic change on an­
other without his consent is a violation of his person, a crime as severe
as rape or grievous bodily harm. There may be subtle social pressures to
choose certain traits; but there is often social pressure for all sorts of
things, and it does not deny the subject free will.
Some will object, in the names of God and nature Religious beliefs
may strongly influence people's decisions about what, if any, engineering
they undergo. They should not be allowed to limit the freedoms of unbe­
lievers. In that it uses natural processes for human ends, gene therapy is
as natural, or as unnatural, as most medicine. But even the artificial car­
52
 ries no moral stigma. The limits imposed by nature are practical, not
moral. The body does not have infinite capacities - gains in one ability
usually mean losses in others. Natural selection always seeks to fit the
balance of abilities to a given environment, and abilities it has optimized
may prove hard to enhance. Substantial improvements in human intel­
lect, for example, may not be possible using genes alone.
All this refers to the engineering of cells in the bulk of the body, "so­
matic" cells which pass no genes to the next generation. But to influence
the early development of embryos, or to create radically different types of
person, requires a different approach, one that puts new genes into all
cells - including the eggs and sperm, whence they can launch them­
selves into the next generation. This sort of "germ-line" therapy, with its
long-term effects, brings to mind specters of master races and Unter-
menschen that limited cell therapy does not.
One response to these worries, used by many scientists in the field,
is to say that germ-line therapy is not an option. Prospective patients
may disagree. Some conditions, which do their nasty work on small em­
bryos, may for all practical purposes be treatable only by using germ-line
therapy. As yet, no therapy for such conditions has been devised. If it is,
it should not necessarily be ruled out; but it would be right to regulate it
far more closely than regular, somatic-cell therapy. Germ-line therapy
would be similar to major surgery on an unborn child incapable of in­
formed consent. In such cases, it is commonly accepted that the parents
are justified in acting in the child's interests. If they can show they are
undeniably doing so, there similarly seems no ground for denying the
gene therapy. But that undeniable interest will have to be the avoidance
of a clear blight that would prevent the child, if not treated, from ever be­
ing able to take a similar decision about its future.
If somatic-cell therapy becomes common, if biological understanding
becomes far more profound and if people show an abiding interest in
transforming themselves, then a less conservative approach may prevail
- not least because people would know that a child with genes foisted on
it by its parents might be able to change them itself, come the time. In
such a world, changing children may look less worrying; or it may look
unnecessary. Not all change is genetic. Surgery can transform people
too, as many transsexuals will testify; increasing intelligence may be
easier with prosthetic computers than with rewired brains. The proper
goal is to allow people as much choice as possible about what they do.
To this end, making genes instruments of such freedom, rather than lim­
its upon it, is a great step forward. With apologies to Freud, biology will
be best when it is a matter of choice.
The Economist

53
 Текст 26

IN DEFENSE OF THE ATMOSPHERE

Global warming is an environmental threat unlike any the world has

faced. While human activities during the past century have damaged a
long list of natural systems, most of these problems are local or regional
in scope and can be reversed in years or decades if sufficient efforts is
exerted. Changes to the earth’s atmosphere, on the other hand, are
glooal and irreversible not only in our lifetimes but in our children's and
grandchildren's as well.
Coping effectively with global warming will force society to move
rapidly into uncharted terrain, reversing powerful trends that have domi­
nated the industrial age. This challenge cannot be met without a strong
commitment on the part of both individuals and governments. Among the
unprecedented policy changes that have now become urgent are a cur­
tailment of chlorofluorocarbon production, a reversal of deforestation in
tropical countries, enactment of a carbon tax on fossil fuels, and a new
commitment to greater energy efficiency and the development of renew­
able energy sources. Rich industrial countries such as the United States,
which have caused most of the warming so far, should logically take the
lead in adopting national programs to slow it. The biggest challenge,
however, is at the international level. Slowing global warming will require
that countr.es strengthen international environmental institutions and en­
act strong new treaties, working together as a world community as never
before.
Lending urgency to the problem is the fact that chemical composi­
tion of the earth's atmosphere, normally stable for millennia, is already
substantially different than it was just a century and a half ago. While
nitrogen and oxygen are still the main constituents, several more com­
plex gases are building steadily: carbon dioxide is up 25 percent, nitrous
oxide 19 percent, and methane 100 percent. Chlorofluorocarbons, a
class of synthetic chemicals not normally found in the atmosphere, have
added further to this warm blanket of gases that allow sunlight in but trap
the resulting heat. Scientists estimate that the resulting greenhouse ef­
fect is equivalent to the heat produced by one Christmas tree light - ra­
diating approximately one watt of energy each - on every square meter
of the earth's surface.
Global average temperatures are now about 0.6 degrees Celsius
warmer than they were a century ago. There is as yet no conclusive
proof linking this recent heating to the greenhouse effect, but circum­
stantial evidence has convinced many scientists that this is the cause.
Scientists are more concerned, however, about the much faster warming
54
 that is predicted by a half dozen computer models - reaching 2.5-5.5
degrees Celsius late in the next century. The difference between the
warming of the past century and that expected in coming decades is like
that between a mild day in April and a late-summer scorcher.
Some have suggested that "greenhouse effect" and "global warm­
ing" are mild terms for a coming era that may be marked by heat waves
that make some regions virtually uninhabitable. Frequent droughts could
plague areas of North America and Asia, imperiling their ability to meet
food needs. More violent weather is projected for other regions. Many
forests could be at risk as climate zones suddenly shift. And many low-
lying areas with dense population or extensive agriculture will be threat­
ened by rising seas.
Considerable change in the earth’s climate is now unavoidable, but
societies still have the choice of an accelerating, cataclysmic warming or
to act to slow it to a more manageable rate. Self-interested voices have
recently argued for more research before any action to stabilize the cli­
mate. While it is true tnat climate change is a young science, many as­
pects of which are uncertain, tnis is no excuse for years of delay. If hu­
manity waits until detailed regional climate predictions are possible, it will
be too late to avert disaster.
Societies already invest in many areas, such as defense programs,
to protect against an uncertain but potentially disastrous threat. Similarly,
investing in strategies to slow global warming is a sort of insurance pol­
icy - against catastrophes that have far greater odds of occurring than
most of the events for which we commonly buy insurance. Many of these
strategies have the additional attraction of being economical investments
in their own right, cutting energy bills and air pollution at the same time
as they help stabilize the climate.
The world energy system is responsible for more than half of the
greenhouse effect, releasing not only 21 billion tons of carbon dioxide to
the atmosphere annually but substantial quantities of two other important
greenhouse gases as well - methane and nitrous oxide. Carbon-
containing fossil fuels provide almost four-fifths of the world's energy,
and their use continues to grow 3 percent annually. Reversing this trend
and moving the world gradually away from its massive dependence on
fossil fuels are essential to stabilizing the climate. In fact, global warming
has emerged as the most important limit facing the world's energy sys­
tem; if the use of fossil fuels continues to grow, the earth will become
uninhabitable long before all of its fuel reserves are exhausted.
A plan to improve energy efficiency is the essential centerpiece of
any workable strategy to limit production of the energy-related green­
house gases. Only improved efficiency has the potential to get societies
off the fossil fuel arowth path in the near term. Meanwhile, an immediate
55
 start on a transition to renewable energy sources will allow the world to
switch ultimately to clean and sustainable power supplies, such as solar,
wind, and geothermal.
There are two other key elements of a credible global warming ac­
tion plan. The first is reversing the destruction of the world’s tropical for­
ests. Deforestation contributes about 20 percent of the carbon dioxide
being added to the atmosphere and is increasing. Turning this trend
around is an enormous challenge that not only will help stabilize the cli­
mate but help many developing countries attain sustainable economies.
The second element is eliminating the production and use of chloro-
fluorocarbons (CFCs) within the next decade.
These specialized chemicals account for one-quarter of the green­
house problem, and they can be eliminated with relatively minor adjust­
ments. In the United States, the world leader in the use of CFCs, they
account for about 40 percent of its contribution to global warming. Be­
cause CFC emissions are growing faster than those of any other green­
house gas, and because they can be eliminated rapidly and completely,
they deserve immediate attention by policymakers.
The most fundamental challenge presented by global warming is to
society’s ability to confront a common threat. This raises complex equity
issues, since the contribution of individual countries to the problem var­
ies widely, as do their stakes in a solution. Overall, the industrial market
countries are responsible for about 46 percent of the problem, the For­
mer Soviet Union and Eastern Europe for 19 percent, and developing
nations (with four-fifths of the world population) for 35 percent. The rich
industrial countries have caused most of the damage to the global at­
mosphere so far, and thus have a clear responsibility to take the lead in
formulating solutions. A few are already considering unilateral actions,
but most are not. Leadership on the part of the world's largest green­
house gas producers - the United States, the Former Soviet Union,
China, Brazil, and Japan - is essential if a global strategy is to be suc­
cessful.
While developing countries burn only a small fraction of the world's
fossil fuels, some contribute heavily to global warming through defores­
tation. (Brazil, for example, is the fourth largest emitter of carbon diox­
ide). A long-term response to global warming should include developing
countries, but they will need financial assistance from industrial nations
in slowing deforestation, harnessing alternative energy sources, and
obtaining substitute chemicals and appropriate technologies to eliminate
CFC emissions.
International negotiations to slow global warming have begun, but
they are moving too slowly. While some smaller nations have proposed
bold and innovative strategies, the economic and environmental super­
56
powers are still formulating their positions. That, however, will not be
enough. It is important that a "Law of the Atmosphere" be more than a
vague statement of intentions. To be effective, a global warming treaty
will have to lay out stringent goals, cutting worldwide carbon emissions
by at least 10 percent by the year 2000, en route to eventually reducing
emissions by more than half. In addition, specific national goals are
needed, recognizing each country's contribution to the problem and abil­
ity to respond. Finally, the international community will have to establish
guidelines and provide support for climate stabilization programs (such
as improved energy efficiency and reforestation), but allowing individual
nations some flexibility in meeting their targets.
While the challenge is a daunting one, climate change is a problem
with which humanity still has the ability to cope. But time is short if we
are to avoid a cataclysmic warming.
Flavin Christopher, Worldwatch Paper

Текст 27

THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

The director of NASA's Institute for Space Studies James Hansen
had a simple message: "Global warming has begun.” As evidence he
presented not just the atmospheric models that for years have predicted
climate change, but also a series of global average temperatures going
back to 1880 that show a rise of 0.6 degrees Celsius. And the decade of
the nineties, as Hansen pointed out, is by far the warmest ever recorded.
The date was June 23, 1998, and human-induced global warming had
finally emerged as a worldwide threat and public concern that policy­
makers could no longer ignore. Although much of the key data had been
developed and even published in preceding years, Hansen's testimony
was more definitive. A sober government scientist was publicly stating
his conclusion that human-induced greenhouse warming is a reality with
which modem societies must cope.
Against the background of a persistent North American drought and
unusually mild European weather, shock waves emanated quickly from
Capitol Hill. Hundreds of reports soon followed in magazines and on
television programs around the world. Opinion polls soon showed that
climate change had become an issue of major public concern. Since
Hansen's testimony, debate has raged in the scientific community and
popular press about some of the details of his conclusions. While signifi­
57
 cant, these differences among scientists have tended to obscure a more
important point. Hansen brought to public attention what is now a strong
and largely undisputed consensus of atmospheric scientists: global tem­
peratures are almost certain to warm rapidly during the coming decades,
posing a serious threat to societies and ecosystems throughout the
world.
The earth's climate is the product of a delicate balance of energy in­
puts, chemical processes, and physical phenomena. On Venus, a hu­
man being's blood would boil. On Mars, a person would instantly freeze
to death. This difference in temperature is largely due to the varying
compositions of each planet's atmosphere. All three receive huge quan­
tities of solar energy, but the amount that is radiated back into space in
the form of heat depends on the composition of their atmospheres.
Some gases, such as carbon dioxide and methane, tend to absorb this
heat in the same way that glass traps heat in a greenhouse, allowing
temperatures to build up. The scorching heat of Venus is the product of
an atmosphere composed largely of carbon dioxide. Earth, on the other
hand, has a nitrogen and oxygen-based atmosphere, only 0.03 percent
of which is carbon dioxide. This share has varied only by 40 percent over
the past several million years, allowing a relatively stable climate condu­
cive to life.
The notion that human activities might disrupt this delicate balance
was first proposed by the Swedish chemist Svante Arrhenius in 1896.
Coal and other carbon-based fuels such as oil and natural gas release
carbon dioxide during their combustion. Arrhenius theorized that the
rapid increase in the use of coal in Europe since the Industrial Revolution
would increase carbon dioxide concentrations and cause a gradual rise
in global temperatures. The chemist’s theory stirred little interest for six
decades, since no one was sure whether carbon dioxide concentrations
were actually increasing.
Finally, in 1957 a study by Institution of Oceanography in California
suggested that half the carbon dioxide released by industrial processes
was being permanently trapped in the atmosphere. Humanity, stated the
study, was "engaged in a great geophysical experiment." Still, solid evi­
dence was needed. Charles Keeling, a young graduate student, set up a
measuring station on the Hawaiian volcano of Mauna Loa to test the
relatively clean air of the mid-Pacific. Keeling has measured an increase
in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration of 11 percent since 1958 -
from 315 parts per million to 351. Measurements taken from air bubbles
trapped in glacial ice suggest that the concentration prior to the Industrial
Revolution was only about 280 parts per million. We now know that the
increase in carbon dioxide concentration in the last 30 years exceeds

58
 that in the previous two centuries, and the gas has reached its highest
level in 160,000 years.
Since the sixties, satellite reconnaissance, improved understanding
of the oceans, and more sophisticated computer models have greatly
broadened understanding of the complex forces at work in the world's
climate. The advent of powerful computers provided an important
breakthrough, allowing scientists to build models that simulate the phe­
nomena that make up the global climate. Among the most complex com­
puter models ever developed, they had by the early eighties helped es­
tablish a consensus on the amount of warming that could be expected if
carbon dioxide buildup continues for the next hundred years.
Scientists detected increases in other, even more potent green­
house gases, notably CFCs, methane, and nitrous oxide. These stem
from a broad range of sources, such as swamps, fertilizer, landfills, rice
paddies, and industrial processes. Although each of these gases exists
in the atmosphere in far smaller quantities than does carbon dioxide,
their greater heat-absorbing properties mean that together they now
have nearly as much greenhouse potential, in effect doubling the rate of
projected climate change. The concentration of two of these gases is
growing even more rapidly than carbon dioxide: 1 percent annually in the
case of methane and 5 percent or more annually for CFCs.
While there are still many refinements that scientists hope to make
to these climate models, their basic conclusions now appear solid. The
heat-trapping properties of the various greenhouse gases have been
empirically verified, and their buildup in the atmosphere documented.
Moreover, data on the atmospheres and surface temperatures of Venus
and Mars have confirmed the role of these gases in determining plane­
tary temperatures. Finally, in reconstructing the earth's climatic history,
researches have found that ice ages coincide with periods of low carbon
dioxide concentration and warm periods with higher concentrations.
One of the largest areas of uncertainty in today's climate models is
the impact of clouds, which will tend to increase in quantity as tempera­
tures rise, accelerating evaporation from the oceans. Some, such as
high-altitude cirrus clouds, tend to have a significant greenhouse effect,
trapping heat radiated from the earth. Other clouds, such as the strato-
cumulus ones that cover about one-third of the ocean, have a predomi­
nantly cooling effect, reflecting a great deal of sunlight back into space.
Extensive research on clouds is now under way, and scientists hope
soon to incorporate more realistic cloud effects into their climate models.
Meanwhile, the current consensus is that clouds will not significantly
slow greenhouse warming.
Another weakness of the climate models is that they do not yet in­
corporate the oceans. The total carbon dioxide content of the oceans is
59
 estimated at 39 trillion tons, over 50 times as much as in the atmos­
phere. About 100 billion tons pass in and out of the oceans each year, of
which a total of about 3 billion tons is retained, acting to moderate the
buildup in the atmosphere. It is possible that over time the surface wa­
ters of the oceans will become more saturated with carbon dioxide, ac­
celerating the increase in the atmosphere. However, definitive proof of
this hypotheses must await a better understanding of the oceanic carbon
cycle.
The oceans also have a large thermal inertia, which gives them a
critical role in determining weather patterns and moderating climate
swings. Scientists believe, for example, that the oceans are responsible
for a lag of at least 20 years between the time greenhouse gases reach
a particular concentration in the atmosphere and the full increase in tem­
peratures. Beyond this inertia, the oceans have other effects on climate.
Scientists believe that as the role of the oceans is better understood, it
will become easier to predict regional climate changes. The first inte­
grated atmospheric/oceanic models are already beginning to emerge. A
recent study by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scien­
tists, for example, suggests that the Southern Hemisphere may warm
more slowly than the Northern Hemisphere, which would decrease the
rate of sea level rise.
A further concern is the fact that there are a number of ways in
which global warming could feed on itself, creating positive feed-backs
that accelerate climate change. Richard Houghton and George Wood-
well of the Woods Research Center have hypothesized that the death of
large areas of northern boreal forest could release additional carbon di­
oxide, exacerbating the greenhouse effect. In addition, the warming
could accelerate the rate of decay of organic matter in soil, causing the
release of carbon dioxide and methane. There is some risk that global
warming could accelerate faster than predicted by the models.
The science of global atmospheric change is still in its infancy. After
the newfound political attention of last year, it seems likely to mature
rapidly. Around the world, governments are pouring millions of dollars
into expanding their climate science programs. The United States, for
example, is planning to spend $191 millions on global change research
in 1999. Major attention will now go to more thorough satellite monitor­
ing, accumulation of oceanic data, and the building of more realistic cli­
mate models. Francis Bretherton of the University of Wisconsin has
identified another critical area that needs improvement: "Our knowledge
is weakest in everything to do with the biology, particularly the way biol­
ogy works on a continental scale."
It seems unlikely, however, that complete certainty will ever be
achieved. Policymakers would do well to remember that meteorologists,
60
 during a period of rapid advancement in the sixties, thought they would
soon be capable of making detailed forecasts weeks in advance. But
even with the advent of satellite monitoring and powerful computers, ac­
curate weather predictions have never extended beyond two days. Cli­
mate forecasts thus must continue to rely on probabilities and guess­
work.
Whether the world has already experienced human-induced climate
change remains a question. Two scientific teams have assembled tem­
perature measurements taken around the world during the past century.
These prove that the planet is in fact warmer than it was a century ago,
but the reasons for the rather erratic increases are less certain. Natural
phenomena such as variations in the sun's energy output, volcanic erup­
tions, and the shifting of ocean currents have caused fluctuations in the
earth's climate in the past. Climate science is not yet able to explain de­
finitively the cause of ice ages or even the minor cooling that occurred
between 1940 and 1965.
While few scientists concur with Hansen's statement that there is a
99-percent probability that the warming of the past century is a conse­
quence of the greenhouse effect, they do agree that it is the most likely
explanation. Stanley Grotch of the Lawrence Livermore National Labo­
ratory said, "If there a secret ballot on the question, most scientists
would say the greenhouse warming is probably here." Recent observa­
tions that substantiate global warming theory include the gradual cooling
of the upper atmosphere while the lower atmosphere warms, tempera­
tures at higher latitudes increasing faster than at the equator, and rising
ocean temperatures.
Stephen Schneider, a leading climate scientist at the National Cen­
ter for Atmospheric Research in Colorado, believes that while an exact
probability cannot be determined, the recent warming in all likelihood is
caused by the greenhouse effect and that another decade or two of
warming will deliver the definitive proof. Schneider said that there are
"legitimate scientific issues, and until they are resolved there will be sub­
stantial question about the detailed nature of climatic change. But these
uncertainties do not call into question the relatively high probability for
unprecedented climate change into the next century,"
What most worries Schneider and other scientists is the rapid rate of
climate change that now appears imminent. The four most sophisticated
climate models now in use suggest that when the heat-trapping effect of
greenhouse gas accumulation reaches twice pre-industrial levels (some
time between the years 2030 and 2050), the global average temperature
will be 1.0-3.1 degrees Celsius higher than in recent years. A few dec­
ades latter, this effective doubling of greenhouse gas concentration will
lead to an increase of 2.5-5.5 degrees, or warmer than the earth has
61
 been for millions of years. Given the climatic momentum, it will continue
to get hotter for years even if the emission of greenhouse gases is reined
in.
These projections imply a warming 10 to 50 times as fast as that
experienced during the past century. The coldest average temperature of
the last ice age (which took thousands of years to develop) is estimated
at just 5 degrees lower than today's. Human beings may cause as much
change in less than a century. While the warming could be less than 2.5
degrees, positive feed-backs could cause temperature increases to ex­
ceed 5.5 degrees. The models predict that global warming will follow an
exponential curve. More warming is expected in the late nineties, and
after the year 2000 it will increase even faster. If the spurt in global tem­
peratures that began about 1970 continues, scientists believe that by the
late nineties the climate may have changed.
Even these figures may understate the regional impacts of climate
change. Atmospheric models suggest that high and mid-latitudes are
likely to experience a warming that is greater than the global average,
while tropical regions experience less. The chances of a summer heat
wave in Dallas, Texas, could go from 30 percent today to 68 percent by
mid-century. Indeed, the extreme heat and dryness experienced by
North America and China during the summer of 1988 are foretastes of
what may be in the nineties and beyond.
Some observers have argued that there will be an offsetting mixture
of positive and negative effects, allowing people to readily cope with any
changes. However, this ignores the extraordinary rate of change that is
projected. Such rates of warming are likely to overwhelm the ability of
natural systems and human societies to respond. Indeed, global warm­
ing can be compared only to nuclear war for its potential to disrupt a
wide range of human and natural systems.
World agriculture is particularly vulnerable to the effects of climate
change. The models suggest that the major grain growing regions of
North America and central China will become substantially hotter and
drier. Less rain is likely to fall in these areas, winter snow packs will be
smaller, and remaining moisture will evaporate quickly as a result of
more intense summer heat. While increased carbon dioxide in the air
does act as a fertilizer, it is unlikely to offset the impact of declining
moisture. The U.S. cornbelt could shrink, since corn is dependent on
substantial moisture and its pollination is impeded by high temperatures
during the 10-day fertilization period. A study by scientists at Utah State
University suggests that the cropping area in the U.S. Great Plains could
decline by much as a third.
While such declines could in theory be offset by expanding agricul­
ture in Canada and Siberia as temperatures warm, these regions have
62
 poor soils that would take centuries before they reach the productivity of
current agricultural land. In a world in which rapidly expanding population
is already creating a tight food situation, global warming is likely to cause
rising food prices, putting the lives of millions in jeopardy. A study by
Anne and Paul Ehrlich of Stanford University suggests that even if food
production keeps pace with demand, a more erratic and drought-prone
climate could cause two serious depletions of grain stocks each decade,
resulting in the loss of 50-400 million lives.
Many arid and semi-arid regions are likely to confront water short­
ages as the global temperature increases. Diminished winter snowfall
and earlier spring runoff would reduce the amount of water that can be
trapped in aquifers and reservoirs. In California, for example, there is
substantial risk of more frequent and severe droughts that could disrupt
the state's agriculture and force changes in household water use.
Biological diversity, already reduced by various human activities, is
another likely casualty of global warming. Loss of forests, wetlands, and
even the polar tundra could irrevocably damage complex ecosystems
that have existed for millennia. Many species are unable to migrate rap­
idly enough to cope with climate change at the rate projected; since spe­
cies are tied together by a web of interdependencies, it is possible that
whole ecosystems could unravel.
Forests, for example, are adapted to a narrow temperature and
moisture range. At northern temperate latitudes, a temperature increase
of 4 degrees Celsius translates into a shift in vegetation zones of 400-
640 kilometers. Trees and their associated ecosystems simply cannot
migrate that far in a few decades. Scientists studying the valuable conif­
erous forests of the U.S. Pacific Northwest, for example, note that the
range of the Douglas fir, the mainstay of the forest products industry,
could be severely limited. The species requires substantial soil moisture,
which could decline precipitously with the projected warming. David
Sandburg of the U.S. National Forest Service said that "watershed and
timber management practices have to change because, within one rota­
tion of trees, there's going to be a vastly different climate and ecosys­
tem."
Ecologist Margaret Davis has examined the impact of global warm­
ing on the forests of the eastern United States. The models suggest a
northward shift of growing conditions of 500-1,000 kilometers by mid­
century, giving Maine the climate of Georgia. In the Southeast it is ex­
pected that important species such as beech and maple will within a few
decades become incapable of reproduction. Some decades later, large
standing trees will become so stressed that they will fall prey to disease
and insect infestation. Eventually, fires will finish off the weakened for­
ests. Without massive and costly efforts to introduce and nurture sub­
63
 tropical species, vast areas could become virtual wasteland. And as long
as the climate continues to change, human efforts to restore the forest
may be doomed.
Sea level rise is another threat. As the water in the ocean warms, it
will expand. In addition, the heating at the poles may reduce the amount
of water trapped in glaciers and ice caps. By the end of the next century,
the seas may be up by 1-2 meters. Large areas of wetlands that nourish
the world's fisheries would also be destroyed. Such an increase would
threaten many coastal cities. In Charleston, South Carolina, for example,
it is estimated that the cost of adapting to the sea level rise projected for
mid-century could reach $400 million. Protecting the entire U.S. East
Coast could cost more than $300 billion by 2100.
Not all countries can afford such an investment. At some point lead­
ers will have to decide whether to invest heavily in dikes and other
structures, or to abandon low-lying areas entirely. Most at risk are Third
World countries, particularly in Asia, where millions of people live and
farm on river deltas and flood plains. Without heavy investments in dikes
and sea walls to protect rice paddies from saltwater intrusion, for exam­
ple, such a rise would markedly reduce harvests. It has been estimated
that in Bangladesh, sea level rise and subsidence caused by human ac­
tivities could by 2050 flood up to 18 percent of the nation's land area,
displacing over 17 million people. Millions of lives could be lost in a mat­
ter of days when tropical storms made stronger by a warming ocean
overwhelm areas that have been getting gradually closer to the sea.
In the United States, a government-sponsored study has assessed
the combined impacts of climate change on the cities of Cleveland, Mi­
ami, and New York. While there are a few minor benefits possible, such
as lower snow removal costs and heating bills, many billions of dollars
will likely have to be spent on improving already inadequate water supply
systems, since demand will increase and supplies degrade as the cli­
mate warms. In New York, for example, the island of Manhattan is just
four feet above sea level, and salt water could move far up the Hudson
River, while more severe droughts limit the amount of water available
from upstate watersheds. In Miami, which was originally reclaimed from
the sea, even extensive diking will not preserve the city's porous fresh­
water aquifer. Flooding will become more frequent, and billions of dollars
will have to be spent developing new water supplies. Air-conditioning
costs in the city will increase enormously.
One of the greatest dangers of climate change is its unpredictability.
Climate models mainly forecast averages. But in the game of climate
change, it is not the averages that kill, it is the extremes. More severe
heat waves, droughts, and tropical storms are among the dangerous
events likely to be common in a warmer world. In densely populated
coastal areas, a single severe storm could kill thousands of people. In
many developing countries, two or three droughts in a row could leave
millions starving.
When air pollution and solid waste disposal first commanded atten­
tion in the seventies, analysts were able to point to short-term solutions
to the problem and come up with 10-year action plans. One of the most
disturbing things about global warming is that even as we discover its
implications and debate strategies to reduce them, some climate change
has become inevitable due to the enormous changes already made in
the earth's atmosphere. Any further warming that we commit the planet
to will also, in the near term, be irreversible. This fact has convinced
most atmospheric scientists that enough evidence is in place to justify an
end to this uncontrolled experiment with the biosphere. The U S. Na­
tional Academy of Sciences is just one among many groups to state that
the time for government action has arrived.
Flavin Christopher, Worldwatch Paper

65
 Содержание
Предисловие............................................................................................ 3
Основные методические рекомендации для работы с текстами 3
Текст 1. CURRENCY AND PRICE REFORM IN RUSSIA................... 4
Текст 2. LESSONS OF THE ECONOMIC TRANSITION IN RUSSIA 9
Текст 3. ESPECIALLY DISMAL A T DOWNTURNS.............................. 12
Текст 4. SAMSUNG MOVE INTO CARS STARTS WAVE OF
PROTEST................................................................................. 15
Текст 5. JAPANESE DEMAND FOR FOREIGN CARS GRO WS AS
CHOICES W IDEN.................................................................... 15
Текст 6. HOW MUCH DOES THAT JOB P A Y ?................................... 16
Текст 7. THE QUIET PA TH TO TECHNOLOGICAL PREEMINENCE 19
Текст 8. AMERICANS WIN OPTION ON BUDVAR............................ 22
Текст 9. HEALTH CHALLENGE: GETTING BASIC CARE TO THE
URBAN PO O R......................................................................... 23
Текст 10. HEART DISEASE: AN ALTERNATIVE TO TRANSPLANT... 24
Текст 11. GENETICALLY ENGINEERED PRIZE FISH CAUSE
CONCERN............................................................................... 26
Текст 12. GENE GENIES........................................................................ 27
Текст 13. THE AGE OF GENES............................................................. 30
Текст 14. BUGS SHED LIGHT ON THE OZONE................................... 31
Текст 15. CUM A ТЕ AND THE RISE OF M A N ....................................... 33
Текст 16. INTERPRETING: PERILS OF PALA VER ............................. 39
Текст 17. EUPHEMISMS, A CHALLENGED M ARKET........................ 41
Текст 18. A WELCOME FOR FOREIGN INVESTORS........................ 43
Текст 19. KOREA EXECUTIVES GUILTY OF BRIBERY.................... 44
Текст 20. TCI AND SUMITOMO FORM CABLE VENTURE................ 45
Текст 21. MORE BAD NEWS FOR JAPAN'S ECONOMY.................... 45
Текст 22. INDEX OF WELL-BEING HITS A 20-YEAR LOW ................. 47
Текст 23. RUSSIA SCANS THE STARS, AND THE FUTURE IS
MOSTLY B A D .......................................................................... 48
Текст 24. TUNGUSKA COMES DOWN TO EARTH............................ 49
Текст 25. CHANGING YOUR GENES................................................... 51
Текст 26. IN DEFENSE OF THE ATMOSPHERE................................ 54
Текст 27. THE THREA T OF CUM A ТЕ CHANGE................................. 57

66
 работ и зв е с тн о го у ч е н о го

В издательском объединении НВИ-ТЕЗАУРУС вышли в свет в 2003

году и готовятся к изданию и выйдут в 2004 году следующие работы
известного специалиста в области научно-технического перевода
(англ. яз.) д .ф .н ., п р о ф . Б о р и с о в о й Л .И .:
2003
1. Ложные друзья переводчика.
2. Хрестоматия по переводу (английский язык): Тексты для
перевода с английского языка на русский.
2004
3. Литература по общему и специальному переводу (1932-2002):
справочник, (совместно с к.ф.н. Парфеновой Т.А.)
4. Научно-технический перевод: общетеоретические и лингво­
методические проблемы.
5. Особенности и трудности англо-русского научно-техническо-
го перевода: общенаучная лексика.
6. Лексические закономерности перевода научно-технической
литературы с английского языка на русский.
7. Англо-русский и русско-английский словарь-справочник
общенаучных неологизмов.
8. Перевод научно-технических терминов.
9. Лексические особенности англо-русского научно-техническо-
го перевода.
10. Проблемы эквивалентности в переводе.
11. Англо-русский словарь общенаучной лексики.
12. Пособия по научно-техническому переводу: Методологичес­
кий обзор.
13. Учебная экспериментальная программа по курсу “Теория и
практика научно-технического перевода (английский язык)
14. Теория и практика научно-технического перевода: Хресто­
матия по переводу.
15. Особенности перевода общенаучной лексики с русского
языка на английский.

67
 Учебное издание

Борисова Любовь Ивановна

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