Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Carlyle A. Thayer
Mekong-U.S. Partnership
September 19, 2020

We request your assessment of the new Mekong-U.S. Partnership.

Q1. What is the U.S. motivation behind the Mekong-US Partnership? What are its
origins, roles, and significance.? Will China be excluded from this initiative?
ANSWER: The Mekong-U.S. Partnership grew out of the Lower Mekong Initiative (see
below). It held its first meeting on 11 September this year. The Mekong-U.S.
Partnership’s aim is to expand programs that were carried out under the Lower
Mekong Initiative by achieving three main goals: (1) to build regional capacity to
increase transparency, good governance, and sustainable development; (2) to
strengthen public and private connectivity between the United States and Cambodia,
Laos, Myanmar, Thailand and Vietnam; (3) and to identify and find solutions for key
regional challenges by working with international partners. The U.S. made an initial
pledge of $153 million to fund joint projects.
Many programs to be undertaken by the Mekong-U.S. Partnership are structured
multilaterally among six states, the United States, Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand
and Vietnam.
The U.S. also will execute some of its initiatives through the Mekong River Commission
(MRC) which has experienced staff and long-standing programs. The MRC has four
members (Cambodia, Laos, Thailand and Vietnam) and two dialogue partners (China
and Myanmar).
Q2. What are the difference between the Partnership and Mekong Lower Initiative?
ANSWER: The Mekong-U.S. Partnership replaces the Lower Mekong Initiative (2009-
2020) as the main form of U.S. engagement with the five riparian states on the Lower
Mekong. The LMI had two main pillars: (1) Water, Food and Environment and (2)
Human Development and Connectivity. Over the last eleven years the U.S. provided
$3.5 billion in assistance in six areas: health, economic growth, peace and security,
human rights and governance, education and social services, and humanitarian
assistance.
The Mekong-U.S. Partnership will provide funding for seven areas: (1) emergency
health to combat COVID-19, (2) upgrading energy systems, (3) law enforcement and
justice, (4) energy infrastructure and energy markets, (5) regional governance through
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increased transparency, east-west connectivity, women’s economic empowerment,

and water security (6) disaster relief exercises and (7) policy dialogues.
The U.S. has three main motivations in creating the Mekong-U.S. Partnership: (1) to
address emerging challenges in the Lower Mekong such as pandemic response,
transboundary water management, and cyber security; (2) to increase U.S.
engagement with the five Lower Mekong states as part of a larger strategy of U.S.
engagement with ASEAN; and (3) to counter China’s influence and provide an
alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
Q3. How have Lower Mekong countries responded to the Mekong-U.S. Partnership
and Washington’s pledge to cooperate and provide support?
ANSWER: Because of the long-standing and broad nature of U.S. assistance to the LMI,
the Mekong-U.S. Partnership has been welcomed by all five riparian states because it
expands on past cooperation and addresses key priorities set by ASEAN including
connectivity and sustainable development.
Q4. What is the current situation along the Upper Mekong River in terms of dam
construction and the impact on the Lower Mekong and Mekong Basin?
ANSWER: Since the 1990s, China has constructed a cascade of eleven major dams on
the Upper Mekong, including five dams built in the last three years. China’s water
management during widespread severe drought last year became a matter of
controversy and point of contention between China and the United States.
In April 2020, Alan Basist (Eyes on Earth Inc.) and Claude Williams (Global
Environmental Satellite Applications, Inc.) published a U.S.-funded research report
that concluded, “The five dams built since 2017 are compounding the alteration of
natural river flow as the reservoirs are filled and water is released… The severe lack of
water in the Lower Mekong during the wet season of 2019 is largely influenced by the
restriction of water flowing from the Upper Mekong during that time.”1
This document is widely referred to as the Eyes on Earth report.
Geng Shuang, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, dismissed the
Eyes on Earth report as “groundless” and argued that China did not limit the flow of
water even though it too suffered severe drought last year.
The Mekong River Commission (MRC) responded by issuing a report that assessed the
Eyes on Earth report “does not provide robust scientific evidence that the storing of
water in Chinese reservoirs caused the exceptionally low flows in the LMB [Lower
Mekong Basin] at Vientiane in 2019 and 2020.”2

1
Alan Basist and Claude Williams, Monitoring the Quantity of Water Flowing Through the Mekong Basin
Through Natural (Unimpeded) Conditions (Bangkok: Sustainable Infrastructure Partnership, April 10,
2020., p. 18. https://www.pactworld.org/library/monitoring-quantity-water-flowing-through-upper-
mekong-basin-under-natural-unimpeded.
2
Mekong River Commission, Understanding the Mekong River’s hydrological conditions: A brief
commentary note on “Monitoring the Quantity of Water Flowing Through the Upper Mekong Basin
Under Natural (Unimpeded) Conditions” study by Alan Basist and Claude Williams (2020), April 2020, p.
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The MRC report determined “that the 2019 drought was due to very low rainfall during
the wet season with a delayed arrival and earlier departure of monsoon rains and an
El Nino event that created an abnormally higher temperature and higher
evapotranspiration.”3 The report concluded that “water infrastructures in the Lower
Mekong tributaries – where some 73 out of 150 planned dams have been installed
over the last 55 years – could have various degrees of impact on the flow.”4
At the launch of the Mekong-U.S. Partnership, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo
accused the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) with threatening “the Mekong’s natural
environments and economic autonomy.” He directly charged China with exacerbating
the historic drought in 2019 by withholding water upstream. Pompeo called on the
Lower Mekong countries “to hold the CCP accountable to its pledge to share its water
data. That data should be public. It should be released year-round… [and] shared
through the Mekong River Commission.”

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Mekong-U.S. Partnership,” Thayer Consultancy

Background Brief, September 19, 2020. All background briefs are posted on
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4. http://www.mrcmekong.org/assets/Publications/Understanding-Mekong-River-hydrological-
conditions_2020.pdf
3
Ibid. p. 2.
4
Ibid., p. 3.