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Highlights
Online news agencies to attract tax
Sensex surges 350 points on new tax slabs
Rationalising tax criteria on gaming software
No hike in service tax
Corporate surcharge down from 10 per cent to 7.5 per cent
Liquor prices set to go up
Prices of gold, silver, precious stones set to rise
Makers of mobile accessories to get tax breaks
No taxes on transportation of pulses
Prices to go up for cars, cement, fuel, cigarettes, air conditioners, TVs, steel
To restore 7.5 per cent duty on petrol and diesel
Raise excise duty on all non smoking tobacco
Uproar over hike in fuel prices in Lok Sabha
To restore 5 per cent duty on crude petroleum
Fuel prices likely to go up
Central exicse duty on petrol and diesel raised to Rs 1 per litre
Rollback in excise duty to 10 per cent
Govt announces partial rollback in excise duty
Excise on large cars, SUVs and MUVs raised to 22 per cent
Presumptive tax limit raised to Rs 60 lakh
Investment linked deduction benefit for two star hotels
Deduction of Rs 20,000 towards infrastructure bonds
Reduce current surcharge on companies to 7.5 per cent
Income above 8 lakh - 30 per cent tax
Income from 5 lakh to 8 lakh - 20 per cent tax
Income between 1.6 lakh to 5 lakh - 10 per cent tax
No tax on income up to Rs 1.6 lakh
IT department to notify Saral 2 forms
Net market borrowing pegged at Rs 3.45 lakh crore
IT return forms to be more user friendly
Govt to bring subsidy related liability into fiscal accounting
Borrowing plan to be decided in consultation with RBI
FY 10 budget deficit seen at 6.9 per cent of GDP
FY 13 fiscal deficit target at 4.1 per cent
Fy 12 fiscal deficit target at 4.8 per cent
Govt to set up National Mission of Delivery of Justice
Gross tax receipts seen at Rs 7.46 lakh crore in FY'11
Fiscal deficit target of 5.5 per cent in FY11
15 per cent increase in plan expenditure
Defence Capex rasied to Rs 60000 crore for FY'11
Allocation for defence raised to 1.47 lakh crore
UIDA to roll out first set of IDs by end of 2010
Allocation of Rs 1900 crore to Unique Identity Project
Allocation to minority welfare ministry Rs 2600 crore
Govt to contribute Rs 1000 per month for pension security
Home loans up to Rs 20 lakh to get 1 per cent subvention up to March 2011
Allocated RS 66,100 crore for rural development
Social Security Fund to have a corpus of Rs 1000 crore
National Social Security Fund for unorganised sector
Extend interest subvention for housing loans up to Rs Rs 10 lakh
To allocate Rs 10,000 crore to Indira Aawas Yojana
Rs 1200 crore assistance for drought in Bundelkhand
To allocate 48000 crore for Bharat Nirman
Allocation to NREGA raised to Rs 41,000 crore
To allocate 22,300 crore allocation for health ministry
Social sector spending at 1.38 lakh crore for FY11
25 pc of plan allocation for development of rural infrastructure
To increase plan allocation for education to 31600 crore
Rs 300 crore of Krishi Vikas Yojna
Body for macro supervision of big companies
Annual health survey to be conducted in rural areas in 2011
Govt ready with draft food securty bill
To provide one time grant to Tirupur exports
Competitive bidding for coal block for power sector
Allocation for power sector Rs 5130 crore in FY11
Allocation for road infrastructure raised to 19,894 crore
Rs 1.73 lakh crore or 46 per cent of the plan allocation for infrastructure
Oil ministry to consider Parikh report in due time
Crop loan interest subvention for timely repayment raised to 2 per cent
Period of repayment of farm loan waiver extended to June 30
Farm credit target raised to Rs 3.75 lakh crores for FY11
Govt to take a firm view on opening up retail trade
More captial for rural banks
Govt to provide credit support to farmers
RBI will give addtional licenses to private banks
Challenge is to make growth inclusive
FDI regime has been simplified by the government
India received more FDIs last FY
Disinvestment target Rs 25000 crore this year
Good and Services Tax to be in place next year
Valuation of listed PSUs has increased greatly
Listing of PSUs will ensure corporate governance
Govt will implement direct tax code by April 1, 2010
Process to make a simple taxation system
Need to make growth broad-based
Gradual phasing out of fiscal stimulus
With economy recovering, need to review public spending
Bad monsoon affected food prices adversely
Food inflation should come down in 2010-11: Pranab
Export figures for January have been encouraging: Pranab
Hope to breach 10% growth mark in the near future: Pranab
Manufacturing has been a growth driver: Pranab
Growth registered a strong rebound in the second quarter: Pranab
Govt must deliever to lesser privileged sector: Pranab
Economy stabilised in first quarter of 2009-10: Pranab
We have to sustain food security in rural areas: Pranab
Modernisation of PDS a priority for the govt: Pranab
Our task is to quickly revert to high GDP growth path: Pranab
Challenge to make development more inclusive: Pranab
Indian economy is in far better position now: Pranab
Pranab Mukherjee begins Budget speech
Pranab Mukherjee reaches Parliament
Banks raise deposit rates ahead of budget.
Mukherjee is scheduled to begin his budget speech at 11 am.
Budget is expected to slash the deficit as the economy rebounds.
Government borrowing was forecast to rise by another 2.2 per cent.
Investors were hoping FM will also be firm on keeping borrowing in check.
Calls for fiscal discipline are urgent as inflation is forecast to reach 10 pc in coming weeks.
Mukherjee may also unveil plans to address shortfalls in food production and distribution.
Budget may include initiatives to address India's chronic infrastructure deficit.
The Survey said Indian economy is well on a recovery track and is expected to expand by
8.25-8.75 percent in 2010-11 and even exceed 9 percent the year after.
Survey Highlights
Growth
Economy seen growing 8.25-8.75 % in 2010-11
Economy expected to return to 9% growth in medium term
India FY11 growth seen 100 bps more than FY10
Medeum term prospects of economic growth “really strong”
India could be fastest growing economy in next four years
Expect GDP growth to breach 9% mark in 2011-12
Risk of second dip recession in advanced nations
India seems to be returning to pre-crisis growth rate
India medium, long-term growth prospects excellent
No reason why India can’t achieve double-digit growth
Clear Sign of recovery in industrial output
Largely contained risk to growth from poor monsoon
Food Prices
Food subsidy must be given directly to households
Food coupons must replace existing PDS system
Must identify poor for effective food coupon system
Possible to switch to food coupons system by 2012
India has ample stocks of wheat, rice
Wheat prices may moderate on hope of better harvest
Vegetable prices started to ease on rabi crop arrival
Food suibsidy must be given directly to households
Food coupons must replace existing PDS systems
Inflation
Concern of higher than expected inflation in coming months
Rapidly rising food inflation cause for concern
WPI inflation in FY10 out of sync with trend in previous years
Near-term supply pressure driving inflation outlook
WPI inflation expected to stabilize due to government steps
Signs food, fuel inflation spreading to other items
Current petroleum prices not viable in long run
Inflation largely due to supply-side bottlenecks
Supply crunch in some commodities on poor monsoon
Poor rain prevented seasonal food price fall post October
Hype about khariff failure exacerbated WPI expectation
Base effect, mild manufacturing WPI helped recovery
Divergence between WPI, CPI inflation rates declining
Food inflation may have peaked in December, seen easing
What, rice price rise on inflationary expectations
Low demand causing price moderation in mining FY10
Agriculture
Agriculture sector continues to be cause of concern
Need policy initiatives to raise farm growth to 4%
Likely to end FY10 with sufficient wheat stocks
Fear of pulses shortage may be causing price spurt
Higher sowing area of pulses may tame prices
Local sugar supply shortage causing price surge
Global sugar price rise likely on big imports by India
High inflation in milk from coarse cereals, oil cakes
FCI should be allowed to keep flexible buffer norms
Need to improve govt strategy for food releases
Govt shouldn’t have any dealing with fertiliser companies
Fertiliser companies should be allowed pricing freedom
Provide fertiliser subsidy to farmers
Introduce coupon system to subsidise fertilisers
Hype about kharif failure encouraged hoarding
Delay in release of imported sugar aided price rise
High food grain stock putting stress on fiscal health
Efficient stock management needs urgent attention
Govt food grain stocks adequate to meet PDS needs
FY10 farm GDP fall seen only 0.2% despite poor rains
Apr-Dec rice, wheat off take 35.8 mln tn, up 43% on ry
High MSP has potential to raise open market prices
Support price benefit to small farmers doubtful
Balancing needs to small farmers, consumers a challenge
Govt wheat buy cost seen 1,504.39 rupee/100 kg FY10
Govt rice buy cost seen 1,893.71 rupee/100 kg 2009-10
Wheat open market sale scheme helped stabilise price
Fall in sugar output put pressure on prices
2009-10 sugar output seen 16 mn tones
2009-10 edible oil import seen 10.1 mn tones
India 2009-10 edible oil supply seen 18.3 mn tones
India 2009-10 edible oil requirement seen 13.8 mln tn
Apr-Dec farm futures volume 38% of commodity trade
Kharif crop output loss may be partly made up in rabi
Grain yield increase not enough to meet rising demand
Research, better farm methods key to high crop yield
Need to focus on states with low crop productivity
Output, yield of pulses, oilseeds a growing concern
Scope of pulses import limited to tight global supply
Falling private investment in agriculture a concern
Cheap, timely credit must to up private investment in farming
Research on high yield seeds must to counter drought
Food security, stock management priority areas
Multi-cropping, raising yield key to higher output
2009-10 kharif grain area 66.8 mln ha, gown 4.6 mln on yr
Fertiliser use at 128.6 kg/ha in 2008-09
Oct-Dec post monsoon rains 8% above normal
NAFED oilseed buy 64,802 tn till Jan 4 on govt account
2009-10 coffee output seen 290,000 tn, up 10.6% on yr
Coconut palm insurance scheme to continue FY
Industry
Industry sector “revival” evident post economic slowdown
Indian industrial outlook “bright” in medium term
Downward trend in IIP growth stands reversed
Growth in capital goods segment below pre-2007 level
Growth in consumer durables aiding industrial revival
Textile exports continue to lag
Fertilizer output hit by raw material availability
Local steel industry revived from global slowdown
Local steel outlook for 2010 remains positive
Local steel demand back on “stable footing”
Local steel demand seen up on real estate, auto growth
FDI inflow in farm sector services grew highest in 2009-10
Services sector attracted highest FDI inflow FY 10
Govt mulling overseas urea, ammonia projects
Contribution of food products in manufacturing WPI seen down
Capacity addition in power, road sectors “lagging”
Infrastructure impediment hampering industry growth
Fiscal Policies
Indian economy has shown ‘V’-shaped recovery
Broad-base revival gives room for gradual stimulus cut
Fundamentals justify optimism for India in long run
Consider Finance Ministry panel suggestion to shape FY11 fiscal goals
Job losses seem to have reversed in recent months
Expect domestic oil output to grow on new discoveries
Food market condition, improved capital flow encouraging
Manufacturing sector showing buoyancy in recent months
Too early to say if buoyancy in manufacturing a trend
Seen substantial pick-up in corporate earnings, margin
Pace, shape of global recovery remains uncertain
Global recovery losing steam on stimulus cut
Transmission of monetary policy remains sluggish
Higher government borrowing raised banks’ SLR investments
Saving, investment rate good for medium term growth
Savings rate expected to rise further
Government should promote transparency in commodity futures
Impact of current subsidy system questionable
Monetary
RBI policy stance transmission to real sector critical
Fiscal rectitude important for Indian economy
Need to monitor credit flow to productive sectors
Need to ensure medium, long-term growth on even keel
RBI policy aims at expanding credit at viable rates
RBI stance aimed at steady growth via credit quality
States Market Borrowing Rs 106000 cr up to Jan 15
Money market mostly orderly in FY 10 on high liquidity
CBLO volumes over 80% of total money market volume FY 10
Liquidity condition remained comfortable in 2010
RBI’s Rs 57000 cr OMO buys FY 10 aided liquidity
Monetary easing main theme of liquidity management FY 10
RBI actively held apt liquidity via OMO, LAF, MSS FY 10
Banking
Growth in bank credit remained low in FY 10
Public sector banks better than private in credit growth
Growth in food credit low so far in FY 10
Need more transparency in micro-finance functioning
Computerisation of banking sector in completion stage
Rise in risk appetite increased capital inflows in 2009
Financial Institutions
Need to extend NPS to central, state autonomous bodies
Pension reforms made significant progress in India
Challenge to expand distribution network of NPS
Pension reforms to facilitate long-term savings
Interdependence of corporate, MFs rising concern
Markets
Govt intervention in markets should be minimal
Govt shouldn’t impose outright commodity futures ban
Equity market showed signs of recovery after April
Regulatory steps taken to make markets sound, stable
Seen revival in secondary market following stimulus
Volumes in currency futures on BSE not significant
Trading volumes in interest rate futures low
Retail investor participation limited in corporate debt market
Retail investor participation limited in mutual funds
Miscellaneous
Unique identity system to come into0 effect in 2012
Labour law reforms can improve Labour demand