Centre for Management Studies

MBA-Executive Semester-II (2020)

Subject: Operations Management (Assignment No. E4)
Paper Code: MBA (Exec) CP- 206
Name: Amit Singh Bagri
Roll No. 19MBE068

Ans.1 Three Point Moving Average:-

Tabular Presentation
Week Actual Reams Used Average 3 Forecast @ 0.1 Error @ 0.1 Forecast @ 0.2 Error @ 0.2
1 132
2 163
3 171 147.50 147.50
4 148 155.33 145.15 2.85 152.20 4.20
5 135 160.67 144.87 9.87 151.36 16.36
6 162 151.33 145.85 16.15 148.09 13.91
7 107 148.33 144.24 37.24 150.87 43.87
8 144 134.67 147.96 3.96 142.10 1.90
9 127 137.67 148.36 21.36 142.48 15.48
10 193 126.00 150.49 42.51 139.38 53.62
11 142 154.67 146.24 4.24 150.11 8.11
12 163 154.00 146.67 16.33 148.48 14.52
13 152 166.00 145.03 6.97 151.39 0.61
14 170 152.33 144.34 25.66 151.51 18.49
15 131 161.67 141.77 10.77 155.21 24.21
16 153 151.00 142.85 10.15 150.37 2.63
17 137 151.33 141.83 4.83 150.89 13.89
18 172 140.33 142.31 29.69 148.11 23.89
19 122 154.00 139.34 17.34 152.89 30.89
20 142 143.67 141.08 0.92 146.71 4.71
21 189 145.33 140.99 48.01 145.77 43.23
22 138 151.00 136.19 1.81 154.42 16.42
23 161 156.33 136.00 25.00 151.13 9.87
24 133 162.67 133.50 0.50 153.11 20.11
25 133.55 149.09
TOTAL 336.17 285.19
MAD 16.01 18.14
Standard Deviation 20.01 22.67
With the forecast of 133/149 in week 25,
95% level of confidence that the actual
value will lie between: 93.53 173.57 103.74 194.43
With the forecast of 133/149 in week 25,
99.7% level of confidence that the actual
value will lie between: 73.52 193.58 81.07 217.10
Graphical Presentation

Interpretations on 3-point moving average:-

1. On the basis of 3 point moving average, it is clearly visible that Mad is comparatively lower
for Alpha 0.1 against alpha 0.2.
2. Standard Deviation is 16.01 when α=0.1 & 18.14 when α=0.2
3. Forecast using higher value of ὰ responds more rapidly to changes. If error (actual value –
forecast value) is large then ὰ needs to be large to allow the forecast to be large, & vice
versa.
4. I have also calculated the possible value of week 25;
(a) For α=0.1
With the forecast of 133.55 in week 25, 95% level of confidence that the actual value will lie
between 93.53 & 173.5
With the forecast of 133.55 in week 25, 99.7% level of confidence that the actual value will lie
between 73.52 & 193.58

(b) For α=0.2

With the forecast of 149.09 in week 25, 95% level of confidence that the actual value will lie
between 103.74 & 194.43
With the forecast of 149.09 in week 25, 99.7% level of confidence that the actual value will lie
between 81.07 & 217.10
Nine Point Moving Average:-

Tabular Presentation
Week Actual Reams Used Average 9 Forecast @ α=0.1 Error @ α=0.1 Forecast @ α=0.2 Error @ α=0.2
1 132
2 163
3 171
4 148
5 135
6 162
7 107
8 144
9 127 145.25 145.25
10 193 143.22 143.43 49.58 141.60 51.40
11 142 150.00 148.38 6.38 151.88 9.88
12 163 147.67 147.74 15.26 149.90 13.10
13 152 146.78 149.27 2.73 152.52 0.52
14 170 147.22 149.54 20.46 152.42 17.58
15 131 151.11 151.59 20.59 155.93 24.93
16 153 147.67 149.53 3.47 150.95 2.05
17 137 152.78 149.88 12.88 151.36 14.36
18 172 152.00 148.59 23.41 148.49 23.51
19 122 157.00 150.93 28.93 153.19 31.19
20 142 149.11 148.04 6.04 146.95 4.95
21 189 149.11 147.43 41.57 145.96 43.04
22 138 152.00 151.59 13.59 154.57 16.57
23 161 150.44 150.23 10.77 151.26 9.74
24 133 149.44 151.31 18.31 153.20 20.20
25 149.48 149.16
TOTAL 273.95 283.04
MAD 18.26 18.87
Standard Deviation 22.83 23.59
With the forecast of 149 in week 25, 95%
level of confidence that the actual value will
lie between: 103.82 195.14 101.99 196.34
With the forecast of 149 in week 25, 99.7%
level of confidence that the actual value will
lie between: 80.99 217.96 78.40 219.92
Graphical Presentation

9-POINT MOVING AVERAGE GRAPH

Actual Reams Used Forecast @ α=0.1 Forecast @ α=0.2 Linear (Forecast @ α=0.2)

250
NUMBERS OF REAMS

200

150

100

50

0
123456789101112131415161718192021222324
WEEK

Interpretations on 9-point moving average:-

1 On the basis of 9 point moving average, it is clearly visible that Mad is comparatively lower
for Alpha 0.1 against alpha 0.2.
2 Standard Deviation is 22.83 when α=0.1 & 23.59 when α=0.2
3 Forecast using higher value of ὰ responds more rapidly to changes. If error (actual value –
forecast value) is large then ὰ needs to be large to allow the forecast to be large, & vice
versa.
4 I have also calculated the possible value of week 25;
(a) For α=0.1
With the forecast of 149.48 in week 25, 95% level of confidence that the actual value will lie
between 103.82 & 195.14
With the forecast of 149.48 in week 25, 99.7% level of confidence that the actual value will lie
between 80.99 & 217.96
(b) For α=0.2
With the forecast of 149.16 in week 25, 95% level of confidence that the actual value will lie
between 101.99 & 196.34
With the forecast of 149.16 in week 25, 99.7% level of confidence that the actual value will lie
between 78.40 & 219.92

Conclusion:
The difference between the 3-point & 9-point moving averages can be seen clearly. Both
averages damp down the random variation in the requirement. The 9-point average, because
it involved an average over a larger number of values, will tend to be more ‘stable’, but
equally will be slow to react to actual changes in level of requirement. The 3-point average
will respond more rapidly to actual changes, but is likely to be unduly influenced by random
variations.
Ans.2 (a)
Motion & Time Study: - When doing business, every organization should know about the
competitiveness in market and also the fact that right perception on it can give a company an
opportunity to improve the quality of products and services. Compromising on quality can be a
huge mistake for any company and can lead it into a state of jeopardy in the market.
Manufacturing forms a huge part of any organization and hence it is obvious to pay extra
attention to various manufacturing tools a company uses to reduce it costs and minimize
production of waste as much as possible. The goal of a company is usually to eradicate seven
types of wastes-transportation, defects, motion, inventory, incorrect processing and
overproduction. To help fulfil this very goal, the time and motion study is applied.

Usually, there are three types of work in an industry-

Value added: It is the type of work for which the customer is willing to pay and it adds value to
the product.
Non value added: Customer doesn't pay for it but it is an essential step in manufacturing
process. It should be minimized.
Waste: It is the type of work which doesn’t add value to the product. A customer is not willing
to pay for it and it is no essential in manufacturing process either. It should be completely
avoided.

Time and motion study provides techniques to analyse an operation or task, measuring which
activities add value and how to eliminate or minimize the ones which do not add value at all.
Through this technique, it is easy to calculate its capacity and increase its efficiency and
productivity giving the company a competitive edge by lowering its production costs and
offering maximised quality at a considerable low price to the customer.

Time study was essentially used mainly for determining time standards, and earlier, a greater
use was made of time study rather than motion study.

It was not until 1930s that the objective of finding better and simpler methods of getting job
done was proposed. This was followed by a period during which motion study and time study
were used together and hence, the combined term motion and time study came into use.

The purpose of the motion and time study is to improve the effectiveness and the overall
productivity of the work place.
Motion and time study is composed of mainly four parts:
1. Developing the Preferred Work Method Design.
Every business and industrial organisation is concerned with the creation of goods and
services. In a manufacturing plant, for example, the production process might include the
acquisition of raw materials, the overall fabrication and the delivery of the final product.
While designing such a manufacturing process, the entire system consisting of every
individual operation is taken into consideration. An important objective of the Method
design is to design a system, or a set of operations which give the most optimized solution.

2. Standardizing the Operation.

The process of standardization follows soon after a proper design has been decided in the
initial step. The work is broken down into specific jobs or relevant operations which are
elaborated extensively. These could be the size, shape, and quality of material, required
tools, or any piece of equipment must be specified.

3. Determining the Time Standard

Motion and time study is used to calculate the standard number of minutes that a qualified
and properly trained worker should take to perform a specific task when working at a
normal pace. This time standard may be used for planning and scheduling work, or for cost
estimation of the labour involved. The most common method of measuring work is known
as the stop watch time study. The operation to be studied is divided into smaller elements,
each of which is timed with a stop watch. A time value is selected for each of these
elements, and the times are added together to get the total selected time for performing
the whole operation. The working speed of the operator during the time study is calculated
by the observer, and the said time is adjusted by this rating factor so that a qualified
worker, operating at a normal pace, can do the work in the specified time. This adjusted
time is called the normal time.

4. Training the Operator.

Even a deliberately intricate plan for doing a work is of no value if it can’t be put into effect.
It is necessary to train the operator to perform the work in the specified manner. In such
cases, a supervisor is appointed to train the operator and a specified written standard
practice is used for assistance. When large numbers of workers are trained for a single
operation; the training is carried out in a separate training department.
Ans.2 (b)
Ergonomics originates from two Greek words, Ergo meaning work and Nomoi meaning Natural
Laws. Ergonomics quite simply put means to work by natural laws. It is basically a discipline that
involves modifying the work environment in such a way that it perfectly fits the person in it. It
deals with coming up with innovative designs which deals with people and the environment
around them. When this principle is applied correctly, it can significantly reduce the amount of
fatigue and muscular discomfort one may face during work hours. Since work nowadays mostly
involves working in front of a computer, it can cause some repetitive stress injuries in certain
parts of one's body, i.e., wrists, fingers, back, shoulders, neck etc. Hence the main goal of
Ergonomics is to reduce this to a considerable level and make the working hours for an
individual more comfortable.

Covid-19 has forced almost everyone to be confined inside their homes. This has significantly
changed the conventional work place culture because, now suddenly, everyone ought to work
from home instead. Even though, the idea of working from home might seem happening at first
but it can lead to some serious health issues.

Since our interaction with outer world is almost negligible these days, it can limit our daily
requirement of physical movement and make us more lethargic, which happens to be a direct
enemy of working. Ergonomics can prove to be efficient in following ways-

1) Correct posture
Work these days include sitting for hours in front of a computer screen or a laptop.
Sitting in one position for quite a long time can be hazardous to back posture and can
cause back muscle pain. In such cases, it is important to have correct posture. Make sure
to have a desk chair which has lumbar support. If one has a regular chair, it is advisable
to put a small cushion behind to support the lower back. Also, while working on a
keyboard, a person’s wrist should be properly aligned with the shoulders so that it could
prevent wrist pains.

2) Quiet place
Since working from home can be very distracting, it is advisable to work in a usually
quieter place. This would significantly lower one’s interaction with the distracting
elements present at home and also will help to increase focus.

3) Eye care
Looking at the monitor for quite a long time without any breaks can prove to be lethal
for one’s eye sight. It is advisable to take small breaks and to reduce the strain on the
eyes and focus on a distant object for some time. Also, it is important to make sure that
your monitor is at the right level with your eyes.
 4) Hydrate
Dehydration can cause severe headaches and can restrict a person from working with
full potential. Therefore, it is important to take water breaks from time to time while
working. Water is a natural refreshing drink and revitalizes both body and mind alike.

5) Exercise
Working while sitting at one place for a long period of time can cause back pains. It is
important to take small breaks in between to do relaxing stretching exercises to ease up
back muscles to improve the overall posture of the body.

Redo Question 2 of Assignment E2

A. (a) I would select below two factors for Factor X & Y respectively.

Factor X: - Competition and Neighbors - Levels of competitions vary by nation and region. In some
areas, retailers will face much stiffer competition than in other areas. Normally, the more industrialized
a nation is, the higher the level of competition that exists between its borders. One of the
environmental influences on the success or failure of a retail establishment is how the retailer is able to
handle the competitive advantages of its competition. A retailer must be knowledgeable concerning
both direct and indirect competitors in the marketplace, what goods and services they provide, and their
image in the mind of the consumer population. Sometimes a retailer may decide to go head to head
with a competitor when the reasons are not entirely clear.

Factor Y: - Demographic Characteristics - Demography is the study of population characteristics that are
used to describe consumers. Retailers can obtain information about the consumer’s age, gender,
income, education, family characteristics, occupation, and many other items. These demographic
variables may be used to select market segments, which become the target markets for the retailer.
Demographics aid retailers in identifying and targeting potential customers in certain geographic
locations. Retailers are able to track many consumer trends by analyzing changes in demographics.
Demographics provide retailers with information to help locate and describe customers. Linking
demographics to behavioral and lifestyle characteristics helps retailers find out exactly who their
consumers are. Retailers who target certain specific demographics characteristics should make sure that
those characteristics exist in enough abundance to justify locations in new countries or regions.