6 – 10 November 2016

Barcelona, Spain
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The Cloud Computing Scenario:

Cloud — The Last 10
and the Next 10 Years

Milind Govekar

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express written permission of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates. © 2016 Gartner, Inc. and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved. Gartner and ITxpo are registered trademarks of Gartner, Inc. or its affiliates.
 Ten Years Today Ten Years
Ago From Now
Exploration Discovery Exploitation

We are moving from "cloud-maybe" to "cloud-first"

1
to "cloud-only" — whether we like it or not!
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Cloud's Contribution in the Last 10 Years
What Cloud Brought What Cloud Wrought
Efficiency Availability Modernization
Risk Consumerization
Scale Opex Debate
"Flip" to Digital
Consistency Automation
Self-Service

Choice Continuous Integration

Improvement New Vendor Landscape

Governance Citizen Behavior
Agility
Layered Strategy DevOps

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Growth in IT Spending on Public Cloud Services,
2013-2019
Billions of Dollars
350
11
300
9 43
250 8 34 7
6 62
6 27
200 5 54
5 21
4 5 45
16 56
150 3 12 4 38 51
3 31 47
9 2 27
22 43
100 39
38
35
119 134
50 90 105
69 79
59
0
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Cloud Advertising Cloud Business Process Services (BPaaS) Cloud Application Services (SaaS)
Cloud Application Infrastructure Services (PaaS) Cloud System Infrastructure Services (IaaS) Cloud Management and Security Services

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Assessing Where Users Are With Cloud Computing, 2016

Anger
2%
Resisters
10%
Adventurers
Denial
Self-
Bargaining Service

Depression

Acceptance Mainstream Pragmatists

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Source: Gartner Inquiry
4 CONFIDENTIAL DashboardI
AND PROPRIETARY
58%
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30%
The Top Three Reasons for Using or Considering Using
Public Cloud Services
30%
First most important
Cloud Thinking
25%
Has Become
More Strategic
20%

15%

10%

5%

0%
Agility Innovation Cost savings Application Executive Standardization IT modernization
development mandate
North America (n = 146) Latin America (n = 98) Western Europe (n = 121) Asia/Pacific (n = 133)

[Q14] Q14. What are the top three reasons for using or considering using public cloud services?
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2016: Cloud Internet of Things
Is the Modern Connectivity
Baseline for … and Scale

Machine
Learning
API
Economy
App
Delivery
Big Data
Digital
Media Social
Interaction
BizApps "Flip" B2B Hubs
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6 to Digital
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Best Practices
 Build a layered strategy for each
 There Is No Single Cloud level of cloud capabilities
Strategy
 Avoid "lift and shift" where possible
 Redesign, Not Redeploy  Enterprisewide cloud migrations
 One Workload at a Time usually fail
 Become or use brokers
 Coordinate the Uncontrollable as intermediaries
 Focus on Outcomes  The only "right" service is the one
with business value
 Hybrid Cloud Works
 Expect hybrid to be the norm
for years

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Cloud Computing … Has Evolved to a Cloud-First
Assumption 15%
Aggregate
40%
Govern
Cloud-Washing
35% 10%
Integrate Customize
User Vendor

Adoption
Public Private
($206 Bn., (—)
16% CAGR)
26 - 30%
Growth
IT LOB
8%
CAGR
BPaaS
(Process Emphasis
Hybrid
Services)
18%
CAGR
SaaS Tactical Strategic
(Software
as a Service)
18% Top Emphasis
CAGR Private
PaaS PaaS Cloud
(Platform (Platform Initiative Cloud Cloud
as a Service) 72% as a Service)
adoption First Last
32% X Mn.
CAGR VMs?
IaaS IaaS
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Primary Drivers Behind Cloud-First Strategies

Source: 2016 Gartner Cloud Survey

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Cloud in the Mainstream — Cloud First and More

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All Enterprise Vendors Are Engaged in Cloud Computing
Hardware Open Software
Source

Beware!
With more
perspectives comes
both opportunity
and confusion.

Service Personal
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Providers CSP
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The Cloud Spectrum Shows the Way

A spectrum of cloud choices shows that cloud extends

to encompass some aspects of the past and sets
the stage for future.
Do not assume that "cloud" means one thing …
it can mean many things in different contexts.

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 Automated Globally Future Computing Models
Time-Shared Networked
Calculation Distributed (Discontinuous Part of Spectrum)

-4 -3 -2 -1 0 3 n

Precloud Cloud Types Postcloud

Type 0: Type 1: Type 2: Type 3:
Cloud-Enabling Cloud-Inspired Pure-Cloud Cloud-Enhanced
Technology for Standardization-Shared Efficiency (Through Elasticity) Platform for Innovation
Service Delivery Hardware Agility (Through CI/CD) and Business

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The Value and Challenges in a Cloud Spectrum
Type 0: Type 1: Type 2: Type 3:
Cloud-Enabling Cloud-Inspired Pure-Cloud Cloud-Enhanced
Value Supporting those who seek Supporting those who require Supporting those who seek Supporting those who seek
Proposition to deliver cloud services as a a higher degree high agility, continuous to deliver or consume new
provider through homegrown of control, touch, isolation, integration/delivery, solutions using public cloud
implementation. responsibility and innovation, and hyperscale- services as a defacto utility
customization while gaining provider-driven self-service providing a low-cost mass
virtualization, standardization without the need for availability and scalability
and automation. ownership or control of mechanism.
underlying systems.

Challenge Not at all cloud services and Often promoted as same as Higher cost of operating Focus shifts away from
subject to technology pure cloud, but with inability existing application systems underlying cloud
obsolescence, lack of to provide for true hyperscale without recoding and lower mechanisms and toward new
standard implementations (millions of VMs), full self- support than cloud inspired models of business that are
and inclusion of traditional service, ultrarapid offerings for customization, not well understood in all
licensing shortcomings. provisioning and provider high performance, cases. Continued fear of
variety, and speed of transparency and enterprise- cloud outages renders these
innovation. driven ownership and solutions vulnerable to cloud
responsibility for success. failures in mass.

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2016: Cloud Will Be
the Baseline for…

Everything
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 Cloud Is the
Baseline

Cloud Blends Into

the Background

Everything Else
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Is Built on It
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Example: IoT Ecosystems Dependent
on Cloud Computing
Key Areas Representative Companies
Standards
 IT Bodies
Services  IoT
 OT

 Communications
Infrastructure  Data Center

 Security
Software  Middleware
 Industry-Specific

IoT Endpoints  Industry-Specific

 Processing
Semiconductor  Communications
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 Sensors
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Three Cloud Futures to Consider
Pervasive "Event- By 2020, event-driven generic

1 Driven, Automatic-
Response" Functions
cloud services will automatically
respond to 10% of data
transformation requests.

2 Virtually Free By 2022, over 30% of cloud IaaS

and PaaS capabilities will be
"Hypercomputer" delivered for free.

Quantum Platform
3
By 2026, 90% of all quantum
computing processes will be
delivered in the public cloud.

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Architecture Changes With Pervasive
Automatic Functions
Function 1:
"Event-driven, automatic
Image Translate response (EDAR)" design
Function 2: means assuming parts of your
Allocate Cost Function 3: application architecture will be
Reconcile
Customer ID "disconnected" functions.

Function 4: By 2020, "event-driven,

Function N: Transfer Money automatic-response"
Verify Bioscan
functions will be continuously
available and 10 times more
numerous than apps
in an app store.
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Virtually Free Leads to Freedom for Businesses

Freedom: "Citizens" design,

develop, integrate and
interact through the cloud.

By 2026, business manager

independence from IT
managers will increase
tenfold due to availability of
"the cloud" as a virtually
free "hypercomputer."
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IT Departments: Change Now!

Stop Doing It All Yourselves! Broker Internal and

External Services
Empower Customers
Through Self-Service
Delegate Responsibility
Where It Makes Sense
Free Yourself to Learn:
"Quantum" Is Coming
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Within 10 Years, Certain Key Distinctions in Cloud
Computing Will Practically Cease to Exist
Private vs. Public Cloud? IaaS vs. PaaS vs. SaaS?
Integrated Integrated
IaaS and PaaS PaaS and SaaS
Dedicated
Virtual Private
Reserved aPaaS bpmPaaS iPaaS xPaaS Compute Storage

Local
Innovation PaaS Framework
On-Premises
Hosted
Brokered
IaaS

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Be Prepared for Blurring of Roles, Decision Rights
and Authority Around and Through the Cloud
Social Workplace
networking Email applications

Consumer Mobile Collaboration Hosted

Business
Technology systems and
applications
Governance
Dashboard BI
services Technology
Media Performance
players Reliability Business
and risk processes
Meters and
sensors
Cloud
Security
Business
applications
Budget and
asset Back-office
management applications
Operational HVAC
control Networking "Traditional"
Asset
Technology systems
Energy analysis Production IT
management information
systems management

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Cloud: The Next Ten Years
IaaS PaaS SaaS

Cost Low/Free Low/Free Increasing

Risk Minimal Moderate Moderate
Data Sensitivity Low Low High
Geography Pervasive Pervasive Pervasive
Adoption Utility Utility Specialty
Hybrid Normal N/A N/A
Strategy Tactical Strategic Strategic

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 DC Hosting Cloud Sourcing Utility

Cloud Computing Is Now a Primary Option,

Not Just a Secondary Possibility.

The Future of Cloud Computing Will Be

an Exploitable Utility for All.
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Recommendations for the Future

 Cloud services have become primary options for acquisition and deployment.
 The movement to thinking cloud-first is leading to more cloud-ready designs
when needed.
 No cloud strategy will be correct without a balancing practical versus pure adoption.
 Private, hybrid and public cloud are all growing in a multistrategy world.
 A visible cloud spectrum can help align cloud models with value for each customer.
 Balance security concerns with privacy realities.
 Seeking cloud brokerages — or becoming one yourself. Few large enterprises
will outsource brokerage completely.
 The cloud value chain is a chain of ecosystems.
 Future cloud spending will align with cloud growth.

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Recommended Gartner Research

 Become a Cloud Enabler by Following Our Eight Steps to Hybrid IT

Thomas J. Bittman (G00259266)
 2014 Strategic Road Map for Business Process Innovation
in Hybrid IT
Michele Cantara and Daryl C. Plummer (G00248340)
 Hybrid IT: How Internal and External Cloud Services Are
Transforming IT
Chris Howard, Drue Reeves, Anne Thomas and Others (G00231796)
 Developing Your SaaS Governance Framework
Jay Heiser (G00274895)
For more information, stop by Gartner Research Zone.
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Recommended Gartner Research

 A Public Cloud Risk Model: Accepting Cloud Risk Is OK, Ignoring

Cloud Risk Is Tragic
Paul E. Proctor, Daryl C. Plummer and Jay Heiser (G00261246)
 Everything You Know About SaaS Security Is Wrong
Jay Heiser (G00299746)
 Hybrid IT: Delivering IT as a Provider and a Trusted Broker
Thomas J. Bittman, Ed Anderson and Drue Reeves (G00245906)

For more information, stop by Gartner Research Zone.

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