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Will any expenses you incur from producing the product be in dollars or some other
currency?
Assessing Country Factors That Will Affect the Demand for Your Product
1. Identify the factors that can affect the balance of trade between the United
States and the country that you targeted for your business. Explain how each
of these factors may affect the demand for your product.
2. Which of these factors is likely to be most important in affecting the demand
for your product?
Determine whether the product you plan to sell is already one of the main exports to
that country.
Review the import controls set by that country's government. Determine whether
your business would be affected by trade regulations.
What key factors likely affect the value of the foreign currency of concern over time?
1. How can your business be affected if the Fed attempts to strengthen the
dollar in the foreign exchange market?
2. If the Fed decides to weaken the dollar, how will your business be affected?
3. How can indirect central bank intervention affect your business even if there
is no impact on exchange rates?
Go to www.bis.org/cbanks.htm to access the Web site link for the central bank in
your target country. Determine whether this central bank intervenes to control its
currency in the foreign exchange market.
1. Obtain a quotation for the spot rate of the foreign currency (that you will
receive from your business) from the bank where you intend to conduct your
foreign exchange transactions. Then, obtain a quotation for the spot rate of
the foreign currency from another bank. Does it appear that the spot rates
are aligned across locations at a given point in time?
2. Obtain a quotation for the one-year forward rate of the foreign currency from
the bank where you intend to conduct your foreign exchange transactions.
Then, use a business periodical to determine the prevailing one-year interest
rates in the United States and the foreign country of concern. Does it appear
that interest rate parity exists?
3. Review the data on forward rates from The Wall Street Journal or another
source to determine whether the foreign currency of concern typically exhibits
a discount or a premium. Then review data on interest rates to compare the
foreign country of concern and the U.S. interest rates. Does it appear that the
forward rate of the foreign currency exhibits a premium (discount) when its
interest rate is lower (higher) than the U.S. interest rate, as suggested by
interest rate parity?
Use The Wall Street Journal or another data source to record the interest rate
differential between the interest rate of the foreign country in which you plan to do
business and the U.S. rate over the last five or so quarters. Then, review the
exchange rate percentage change in the foreign currency of concern over each of
those corresponding quarters to determine whether the international Fisher effect
(IFE) appears to hold over those quarters for that currency.
Use a business periodical or the Internet to determine how the value of the foreign
currency of concern has changed in each of the last five weeks. Does it appear that
there is a trend over the last five weeks? What is the mean percent-age change over
these weeks? If you believed that the currency's value would continue following the
recent trend, would it appreciate or depreciate in the near future?
Explain how your business could ensure payment for the products that you are
exporting to a foreign country.
1. Given that your business has receivables in a foreign currency, you may want
to consider financing in that same foreign currency to offset the exposure.
Compare the recent interest rate of the foreign currency of concern to the
U.S. interest rate: Is the foreign interest rate typically higher or lower than
the U.S. interest rate? Would you use financing in that currency to offset
receivables? Explain.
Explain how you could use foreign financing for your business in a manner that
would reduce your exposure to exchange rate risk. Be specific.