Glossary

assumption An estimated value or input to a spreadsheet model.

assumption cell A value cell in a spreadsheet model that has been defined
as a probability distribution.

CDF Cumulative distribution function that represents the probability that

a variable will fall at or below a given value.

certainty bands In a trend chart, a graphic depiction of a particular cer-

tainty range for each forecast.

certainty level The percentage of values in the certainty range compared

to the number of values in the entire range.

certainty range The linear distance for the set of values between the cer-
tainty grabbers on the forecast chart.

coefficient of variability also coefficient of variance or coefficient of

variation A measure of relative variation that relates the standard
deviation to the mean. Results can be represented in percentages for
comparison purposes.

continuous probability distribution A probability distribution that de-

scribes a set of uninterrupted values over a range. In contrast to the
Discrete distribution, the Continuous distribution assumes there are an
infinite number of possible values.

correlation In Crystal Ball, a dependency that exists between assumption

cells.

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correlation coefficient A number between −1 and 1 that specifies math-
ematically the degree of positive or negative correlation between as-
sumption cells. A correlation of 1 indicates a perfect positive correla-
tion, −1 indicates a perfect negative correlation, and 0 indicates there
is no correlation.

cumulative frequency distribution A chart that shows the number or

proportion (or percentage) of values less than or equal to a given
amount.

decision variable A Crystal Ball variable in your model that you can con-
trol.

deterministic model Another name for a spreadsheet model which yields

single-valued results.

discrete probability distribution A probability distribution that describes

distinct values, usually integers, with no intermediate values. In con-
trast, the Continuous distribution assumes there are an infinite number
of possible values.

display range The linear distance for the set of values displayed on the
forecast chart.

dominant A relationship between distributions in which one distribution’s

values for all percentile levels are higher than another’s. (see also Sub-
ordinate)

entire range The linear distance from the minimum forecast value to the
maximum forecast value.

forecast A statistical summary of the assumptions in a spreadsheet model,

output graphically or numerically.

forecast cell A formula cell that has been defined as a forecast and refers
either directly or indirectly to assumption cells.

forecast definition The forecast name and parameters assigned to a cell in

a Crystal Ball dialog.

forecast formula A formula that has been defined as a forecast cell.

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forecast value also trial A value calculated by the forecast formula during
an iteration. These values are kept in a list for each forecast, and are
summarized graphically in the forecast chart and numerically in the
descriptive statistics.

formula cell A cell that contains a mathematical formula.

frequency also frequency count The number of times a value recurs in a

group interval.

frequency distribution A chart that graphically summarizes a list of val-

ues by subdividing them into groups and displaying their frequency
counts.

goodness-of-fit A set of mathematical tests performed to find the best fit

between a standard probability distribution and a data set.

grabber also certainty grabber and truncation grabber A control that

lets you use the mouse to change values and settings.

group interval A subrange of a distribution that allows similar values to

be grouped together and given a frequency count.

iteration also trial A three-step process in which Crystal Ball generates

random numbers for assumption cells, recalculates the spreadsheet model(s),
and displays the results in a Forecast Chart.

kurtosis The measure of the degree of peakedness of a curve. The higher

the kurtosis, the closer the points of the curve lie to the mode of the
curve. A normal distribution curve has a kurtosis of 3.

Latin hypercube sampling In Crystal Ball, a sampling method that di-

vides an assumption’s probability distribution into intervals of equal
probability. The number of intervals corresponds to the Minimum Sam-
ple Size option available in the Run Preferences dialog. A random num-
ber is then generated for each interval. Compared with conventional
Monte Carlo sampling, Latin hypercube sampling is more precise be-
cause the entire range of the distribution is sampled in a more even,
consistent manner. The increased accuracy of this method comes at
the expense of added memory requirements to hold the full Latin hy-
percube sample for each assumption.

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mean The familiar arithmetic average of a set of numerical observations:
the sum of the observations divided by the number of observations.

mean standard error The Standard Deviation of the distribution of pos-

sible sample means. This statistic gives one indication of how accurate
the simulation is.

median The value midway (in terms of order) between the smallest possible
value and the largest possible value.

mode That value which, if it exists, occurs most often in a data set. In
a continuous probability distribution, the mode is the number on the
horizontal axis lying beneath the highest point on the pdf curve. In
a discrete probability distribution, the mode is the value having the
greatest probability of occurrence.

model sensitivity The overall effect that a change in an assumption cell

produces in a forecast cell. This effect is solely determined by the
formulas in the spreadsheet model.

Monte Carlo simulation A system which uses random numbers to mea-

sure the effects of uncertainty in a spreadsheet model.

PDF Probability density function that represents the probability that an

infinitely small variable interval will fall at a given value.

probabilistic model A system whose output is a distribution of possible

values. In Crystal Ball, this system includes a spreadsheet model (con-
taining mathematical relationships), probability distributions, and a
mechanism for determining the combined effect of the probability dis-
tributions on the model’s output (Monte Carlo Simulation).

probability (Classical Theory) The likelihood of an event.

Probability Distribution also Distribution A set of all possible events

and their associated probabilities.

random number A mathematically selected value which is generated (by

a formula or selected from a table) to conform to a probability distri-
bution.

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random number generator A method implemented in a computer pro-
gram that is capable of producing a series of independent, random
numbers.

range The difference between the largest and smallest values in a data set.

rank correlation also Spearman’s rank correlation A method whereby

Crystal Ball replaces assumption values with their ranking from lowest
value to highest value using the integers 1 to N prior to computing the
correlation coefficient. This method allows the distribution types to be
ignored when correlating assumptions.

relative probability also relative frequency A value, not necessarily be-

tween 0 and 1, that indicates probability when used in a proportion.

reverse cumulative frequency distribution A chart that shows the num-

ber or proportion (or percentage) of values greater than or equal to a
given amount.

risk The uncertainty or variability in the outcome of some event or decision.

seed value The first number in a sequence of random numbers. A given

seed value produces the same sequence of random numbers every time
you run a simulation.

sensitivity The amount of uncertainty in a forecast cell that is a result of

both the uncertainty (probability distribution) and model sensitivity
of an assumption cell.

sensitivity analysis The computation of a forecast cell’s sensitivity with

respect to the assumption cells.

skewed An asymmetrical distribution.

skewed, negatively A distribution in which most of the values occur at

the upper end of the range.

skewed, positively A distribution in which most of the values occur at the

lower end of the range.

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skewness The measure of the degree of deviation of a curve from the norm
of a asymmetric distribution. The greater the degree of skewness, the
more points of the curve lie to either side of the peak of the curve. A
normal distribution curve, having no skewness, is symmetrical.

spreadsheet model Any spreadsheet that represents an actual or hypo-

thetical system or set of relationships.

standard deviation The square root of the variance for a distribution. A

measurement of the variability of a distribution, i.e., the dispersion of
values around the mean.

subordinate A relationship between distributions in which one distribu-

tion’s values for all percentile levels are lower than another’s. (see also
Dominant)

trial also iteration A three-step process in which Crystal Ball generates

random numbers for assumption cells, recalculates the spreadsheet model(s),
and displays the results in a Forecast Chart.

trial as used to describe a parameter in certain probability distributions The

number of times a given experiment is repeated.

value cell A cell that contains a simple numeric value.

variable A quantity that can assume any one of a set of values and is usually
referenced by a formula.

variance The square of the standard deviation; i.e., the average of the
squares of the deviations of a number of observations from their mean
value. Variance can also be defined as a measure of the dispersion, or
spread, of a set of values about a mean. When values are close to the
mean, the variance is small. When values are widely scattered about
the mean, the variance is larger.

virtual memory Memory which uses your hard drive space to store infor-
mation after you run out of random access memory. Virtual memory
supplements your random access memory.