Life after START: U.S. – Russian Nuclear Reduction effects

Co-sponsored by the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center and the Carnegie Nuclear Policy Program
and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Thursday, January 27, 2011

Rodolfo L. Velazquez

How likely is a nuclear rivalry between India and Pakistan on the one hand and China and India on the
other? The overall sentiment in the conference concerning a nuclear rivalry between India and Pakistan
is one of alarm and concern. China's decision to sell two civilian power reactors to Pakistan, whose
proliferation record raise well-founded concern in the global community, and most importantly in South
Asia. When and if China's proposed deal goes through, it will stoke the already tense Pakistani-Indian
rivalry and damage future relations. If these happen, the community at large will suffer in South
Asia. How does the START treaty factor into this? Well, using the START template as a starting point, the
most viable and unifying option is to peacefully broker an agreement during the upcoming U.N. summit,
between the Pakistani/Chinese/Indian states that would help ease the escalating emotions surrounding
nuclear development and how the U.S. and Russia are trying to move away from nuclear proliferation in
order to reduce the role and importance of nuclear weapons, thus achieving a more secure and stable
global environment without the ever-looming threat of nuclear fallout.

During the conference there were several viewpoints on a missile-rich China surrounding the rapid
build-up of armaments in Asia, but chief amongst them was George Perkovich's, from the Carnegie
Endowment for International Peace. Is China’s growing arsenal of accurate nuclear and non-nuclear,
ground-launched ballistic and cruise missiles posing a threat serious enough to warrant dedicated
diplomacy? Mr. Perkovich believes that China's push in its defense program and consequently, the
massive influx and production of armaments and sophisticated military technology, are of the most
serious nature. He believes that as China continues to grow in power it will use its rapidly-improving
military capabilities to deter and influence, a threat that will potentially hinder and damage U.S. foreign
influence. It is essential, then, to continue our diplomatic relations with China to try and curb their
military armament build-up which would give them long-range precision strike capabilities with ballistic
and cruise missiles. One of the more heated topics discussed during the conference, "Realizing Ronald
Reagan’s Other Dream: Eliminating Nuclear-Capable Ground-launched Missiles," addressed U.S. foreign
policy concerning the threat that ground-launched missiles pose, and how China's focus and
development in this area is cause for alarm and more importantly, action.

The model which India and Pakistan will follow in regards to their nuclear proliferation, and
consequently, China, will serve as a comparison for U.S. - Russian relations concerning the Strategic
Arms Reduction Treaty. The New Start Treaty's success (or failure) will factor considerably on modern
nuclear policy in Southwest Asia, and the Middle-East. Victor Gilinsky, former Commissioner of the U.S.
Nuclear Regulatory Commission, believes Russia’s dependence upon China as the primary source for
sustenance and trade in the Far East, will deter Russia from publicly calling China out on issues
concerning military security and armament. Russia realizes that it must maintain good relations with
both the U.S. and China, and that it must be very careful on issues where the U.S. and China disagree, in
order to avoid damaging relations with either country. If competition between China, Pakistan, and India
escalate, Russia will be forced to pick its side and in a potentially polarized situation where it is the U.S.
and allies vs. China and North Korea/Pakistan.

What new arms control approaches might be taken to address these emerging threats? Serving as the
primary model for the global community, the United States' ability to successfully negotiate with its
former Cold War enemy to achieve a “new strategic relationship based on mutual trust, openness,
predictability, and cooperation, desiring to bring their respective nuclear postures into alignment with
this new relationship, and endeavoring to reduce further the role and importance of nuclear weapons”
will prove tantamount to bringing stability to the Middle East and Asia as growing tensions over nuclear
capability are beginning to escalate to dangerous levels. Thus, the New START accord’s approach will lay
down the groundwork for future negotiations amongst the transatlantic community, and help bring
peace, security, and cooperation that will lead to a more unified community.