land degradation & development

Land Degrad. Develop. 28: 2418–2431 (2017)

Published online 31 August 2017 in Wiley Online Library (wileyonlinelibrary.com) DOI: 10.1002/ldr.2775

SPATIAL MONITORING OF DESERTIFICATION EXTENT IN WESTERN IRAQ

USING LANDSAT IMAGES AND GIS
Qayssar Mahmood Ajaj1, Biswajeet Pradhan1,2,3* , Abbas Mohammed Noori1, Mustafa Neamah Jebur1
1
Department of Civil Engineering, Geospatial Information Science Research Center (GISRC), Universiti Putra Malaysia, UPM, 43400, Serdang, Selangor,
Malaysia
2
School of Systems, Management and Leadership, Faculty of Engineering and Information Technology, University of Technology Sydney, Ultimo, New South
Wales, Australia
3
Department of Energy and Mineral Resources Engineering, Choongmu-gwan, Sejong University, Seoul, Korea

Received 14 January 2017; Revised 10 July 2017; Accepted 23 July 2017

ABSTRACT
Desertification refers to land degradation in arid, semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas caused by various factors, including climatic variations
and human activities. In recent decades, sandstorms have increased significantly in Western Iraq, which primarily increased desert lands.
Proper management is required to control and to monitor the phenomena, as well as to calculate the desertified areas caused by desertifica-
tion. The study area covered 50,861.854 km2 in Western Iraq. Landsat-5 TM, Landsat-7 ETM+, and Landsat-8 OLI data for 1990, 2002, and
2014 were used. Maximum likelihood algorithm was used to classify the images. Change detection results were discussed in two terms:
short-term (1990–2002) and (2002–2014) and long-term (1990–2014) analysis. Change detection analysis from 1990 to 2014 showed that
desert area increased to 2286.7308 km2, becoming a new source of dust storms. Hazard occurrence probability was studied on September
and October 2014. The desertification amount decreased from 1990 to 2002 and increased significantly from 2002 to 2014. Sandstorms have
recently been considered a hazardous phenomenon affecting the human population, the vegetation, and the ecosystem in Iraq. Copyright ©
2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

key words: desertification; sandstorm; GIS; remote sensing; hazard assessment

INTRODUCTION Vogt et al. (2011) commonly used indicators including

biophysical (land cover change, biodiversity, soil fertility),
The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification
economic (declining crop yields, fodder production, house-
defines ‘desertification’ as the land degradation in arid,
hold income, market efficiency), social (rural–urban migra-
semi-arid, and dry sub-humid areas resulting from various
tion increase, population structural changes, social
factors, including climatic variations and human activities.
solidarity decline, health deterioration, unemployment rate
Land degradation refers to the reduction or loss of biological
increase), and political (weakened state power,
or economic productivity and complexity in croplands, pas-
immigration-related conflicts) (Ibrahim, 1993). Monitoring
tures, and woodlands. Desertification mainly occurs in dry-
involves the acquisition of information through field sur-
lands (Kassas, 1995; Sivakumar, 2007), although it affects
veys, available records, and remote sensing (Vogt et al.,
various environments, climates, and societies. Previously,
2011). In a recent paper, Zhang et al., (2016) demonstrated
Cerdà & Lavée (1999) selected two sites to study the impact
that aeolian environments are major distinction between
of grazing on soil under different climatic conditions.
desert–oasis transitional area and desert.
Puigdefábregas et al. (1998) explained that desertification
In a more recent work, Shoba & Ramakrishnan (2016) used
is triggered by the synergetic effects of climatic and socio-
geostatistical model with four factors (i.e. temperature, wind,
economic driving forces on the conditions of land and water
rainfall, and human induced) for assessing the land degrada-
resources through associated changes in land use patterns.
tion and desertification. According to Adger et al. (2001),
The definition of desertification implies an interaction of
over 250 million people are directly affected by desertifica-
natural event (drought) and human activity systems (re-
tion, and some one billion people in over 100 countries are
source usage), which create resources and possibly hazards,
at risk. Thus, continued observation is required to monitor
such as environmental stress situations. Most studies on de-
the high year-to-year variability of dryland ecosystem
sertification have focused on soil erosion, which is consid-
conditions. Remote sensing is currently the most successful
ered as an index of the relationship between the climate,
approach for detecting the long-term desertification process
water balance, and biotic forms and the human land systems.
and vegetation changes (Shoba & Ramakrishnan, 2016).
The identification of suitable indicators for monitoring desert-
*Correspondence to: Biswajeet Pradhan, Department of Civil Engineering, ification at local, regional, and global scales is crucial (Reed
Geospatial Information Science Research Center (GISRC), Universiti Putra
Malaysia, 43400, UPM, Serdang, Malaysia. et al., 2013). Recently, various studies have been published
E-mail: biswajeet24@gmail.com;biswajeet@lycos.com (Salvati et al., 2013; Symeonakis et al., 2014; Miao et al.,

Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

 SPATIAL MONITORING OF DESERTIFICATION
2015; Torres et al., 2015; Xu et al., 2015; Yan & Cai, 2015;
Eskandari et al., 2016; Li et al., 2016; Sadeghravesh et al.,
2016; Shoba & Ramakrishnan, 2016; Zhang et al., 2016).
The early detection of land degradation, particularly at
low intensities, represents a major limitation on the usability
of degradation early warning and monitoring systems. The
land degradation monitoring community can also benefit
from the experiences of deforestation observation projects,
which have acknowledged the importance of local stake-
holders and end-users for efficient development (Foody &
Boyd, 2013; Asner, 2014). The use of volunteered informa-
tion and photographs to validate land cover maps can be
valuable as additional data source in regions with limited
long-term field data. Desertification monitoring is meaning-
less when not integrated with local end-users. The traditional
top-down approach of researchers in developing products
leads to a lack of connection between the intended users
and the design procedure, which can make it unsuitable in
managing various local issues (Asner, 2014). Yang, (2002)
provided accurate and timely geospatial information to illus-
trate the land use/cover dynamics of metropolitan areas.
GIS and remote sensing are excellent tools to monitor, de-
tect, and analyze changes in land use and cover (Manonmani
& Suganya, 2010). One of the major applications of the
remotely sensed data obtained from Earth-orbiting satellites
is change detection, made possible by repetitive coverage
with short intervals and consistent image quality. Change
detection is the process of detecting changes over time.
Multidate imagery is required for change detection, as each
image shows land use and cover at specific times. Change de-
tection is a practical illustration of the relationship between
humans and the environment, which helps improve environ-
mental resource management (Lu et al., 2004). Detecting
land cover changes using remote sensing techniques strongly
depends on the spatial, spectral, and temporal characteristics
of the sensors used (Burnett & Blaschke, 2003). Images are
usually classified by per-pixel methods, such as the maxi-
mum likelihood classifier (supervised classification), in
which the spectral information of each pixel is used to
generate land cover classes. In contrast to pixel-based
classification methods that classify individual pixels directly,
object-based classification first aggregates image pixels into
spectrally homogenous image objects using an image seg-
mentation algorithm and then classifies the individual objects
(Liu and Xia, 2010). The advantages of object-based classifi-
cation over the traditional pixel-based approach are well doc-
umented. However, the potential limitations of object-based
classification remain less explored. Regarding the object-
based classification, two types of errors often exist in image
segmentation including over-segmentation and under-
segmentation, which cannot be seen in pixel-based technique
(Jawak et al., 2015). Computational cost of Object Based
Image Analysis (OBIA) is high compared to pixel based,
and users themselves have to decide the attributes to be con-
sidered depending on the application (Hussain et al., 2013).
This research primarily aims to monitor the extent of desert-
ification in a new source area of dust storms in Western Iraq
Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
2419
along the strip adjoining the west desert region. Additionally,
it also aims to analyze the impact of hazard of sandstorm on
health, plantation, visibility, and roads using GIS.
METHODOLOGY
The overall methodologies are illustrated in Figure 1.
Study Area
The study area is located in Western Iraq, within longitude
42°200 00″ E to 45°300 00″ E and latitude 31°000 00″ N to
35°000 00″ N, covering 50,861.854 km2 (Figure 2). This area
lies in the North Temperate Zone, where weather is charac-
terized by very low humidity for most of the year. Summer
is characterized by rising temperatures accompanied by de-
creased relative humidity and northwest and northern dry
winds, which shift dust storms, increase wind speed, and
stop the rainfall in Iraq and the emergence of hurricanes in
the Mediterranean. Furthermore, the Western Headwind
arrived after blowing toward Europe and then dried up
Iraq. In addition, the high temperature hampered the conden-
sation, even as raindrops evaporate before reaching the
ground. This area was selected because it faces the winds
first and contains the greatest area of desert in Iraq.
Data Used
Three images of Landsat-5 TM, Landsat-7 ETM+, and
Landsat-8 OLI for 1990, 2002, and 2014 within WRS-2
(path 169 row 36, path 169 row 37, path 168 row 36, path
168 row 37, and path 168 row 38) data sets were selected,
respectively, using three different Landsat Satellite images
due to the unavailability of one satellite for whole period
of the study, at very near anniversary acquisition data.
Landsat-5 TM sensors have a spatial resolution of
30 × 30 m and a spectral resolution of seven bands, includ-
ing visible bands (blue, green, and red), near-infrared and
middle-infrared, and thermal bands. The temporal and radio-
metric resolutions are 16 days and 8 bits, respectively.
Landsat-7 ETM+ has similar orbit and resolution character-
istics to Landsat-5 TM. In some editions, Landsat-7 ETM+
has an eighth band (panchromatic band) with a 15-m spatial
resolution that can be used in pan sharpening to reduce the
multispectral resolution ETM+ from 30 to 15 m (USGS,
2004). Landsat-8 OLI sensor has two additional bands in
the multispectral bands than Landsat-7 ETM+, including
deep-blue coastal/aerosol and shortwave-infrared cirrus
bands with a spatial resolution of 30 × 30 m, a temporal
resolution of 16 days, and a radiometric resolution of 12bits.
Maximum Likelihood Algorithm
The maximum likelihood classifier is among the most pop-
ular classification methods in remote sensing, in which a
pixel with the maximum likelihood is classified into the cor-
responding class (Mather & Tso, 2016). This method, based
on Bayesian probability theory, calculates the means and
variances of the classes and uses them to find probabilities
(Perumal & Bhaskaran, 2010). The method is extremely
LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT, 28: 2418–2431 (2017)
2420
Figure 1. Location map of the study area in the western part of Iraq. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
precise, as well as complex and time consuming (Xu &
Wei, 2012).
This classification type can be successful if it produces
complete and correct spectral classes. Classes should be
made through normal probability distributions. If a class is
multimodal and unresolved, the classification is inefficient
(Gevara, 2016). However, maximum likelihood classifica-
tion is disadvantaged with the large number necessary for
its process, particularly when numerous classes should be
generated or classification should be accomplished for many
bands. This requires more computation time than other
methods.
Change Detection Analysis
Satellites provide digital images of geographic areas within
a pre-defined interval, which renders the monitoring and de-
tection of urban and environmental changes at different
times possible. Change detection (CD) analysis describes
and quantifies the differences between images of one scene
at various times (Sundarakumar et al., 2012). Change detec-
tion is the most favored process for monitoring and manag-
ing environmental changes, as it quantitatively analyzes the
spatial distribution of desertification-prone areas. Change
detection uses images from sensors, including satellite imag-
ery and aerial photographs, which are highly trusted sources
for monitoring changes in a study area.
Classification is the common approach used in all applica-
tions. Before using object-based classification, analysts
classify each pixel of the image as a separate observation
Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Q. M. AJAJ ET AL.
regardless of its spatial context. However, pixel-based
classification has numerous limitations, as reported in the
numerous articles comparing pixel-based and object-based
classification. Pixel-based classification achieves low
change detection accuracy and does not independently dis-
sect image data. The method is also limited in terms of ad-
dressing location, scale, neighborhood, and distance issues.
Hence, there is an ongoing shift toward object orientation
(Gamanya et al., 2009).
Dust Storm Impact Assessment
We considered the increasingly desertified area as a new
source of sandstorms. Land use and cover change have po-
tentially massive effects on the global rates of wind erosion
and dust emission (Neff et al., 2008). These aeolian sedi-
ment transport processes collectively influence climate,
ecosystem dynamics, and land productivity. Dust emissions
from disturbed surfaces can affect air quality, human health,
and transportation systems (Sharratt & Lauer, 2006; Sprigg
et al., 2014). Moreover, wind erosion can moderate the
effectiveness of climate change mitigation and adaptation
strategies.
Wind erosion processes
The three processes of wind erosion are surface creep, salta-
tion, and suspension. In a wind erosion event, surface creep
occurs among large particles that are 0.5 to 2 mm in diame-
ter. These particles roll across the soil surface, causing them
to collide with and dislodge other particles. Surface creep
LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT, 28: 2418–2431 (2017)
 SPATIAL MONITORING OF DESERTIFICATION 2421

Figure 2. The overall flow chart of methodology in this research. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

wind erosion results in the movement of larger particles at
only several meters.
Saltation occurs among middle-sized soil particles that are
0.05 to 0.5 mm in diameter. Such particles are sufficiently
light to be lifted off the surface but too heavy to become
suspended. These particles move through a series of low
bounces over the surface, causing abrasion on the soil surface
and attrition (breaking of particles into smaller particles).
Suspension occurs among tiny particles less than 0.1 mm
in diameter, which can be moved into the air by saltation,
which forms dust storms when taken further upward by tur-
bulence. These particles include very fine grains of sand,
clay particles, and organic matter. However, not all
surface-ejected dust is carried in the air indefinitely. Larger
dust particles (0.05 to 0.1 mm) may be dropped within
2 km of the erosion site. Particles on the order of 0.01 mm
may travel hundreds of kilometers, and 0.001-mm-sized
particles may travel thousands of kilometers (Lyles, 1988).
Particle size and settling velocity
The relation between particle size and wind velocity is vital.
Particles that can travel great distances typically have diam-
eters of less than 20 μm. These particles fall at a speed of
about 100 mm/s, or roughly 4 in/s. Particles larger than
20 μm in diameter fall disproportionately faster: 50-μm par-
ticles fall at about 500 mm/s, or half a meter per second. Par-
ticles smaller than 20 μm settle very slowly. Ten micrometer
particles fall at only 30 mm/s. Smaller particles fall even
more slowly: 2-μm particles fall at only 1 mm per second.
The finest clay particles settle so slowly that they may be

Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT, 28: 2418–2431 (2017)
2422
transported across oceans without settling. Relating these
sizes to the real world, clay particles have diameters less
than 2 μm, silt particles range from 2 to 50 μm, and sand-
size particles are greater than 75 μm. Appropriate source re-
gions for dust storms have fine-grained soils. The threshold
wind velocity (15 cm above ground surface) that can lift and
transport dust grains 0.05 to 0.1 mm in diameter ranged from
3.5 to 4.0 m/s (Gillette, 1999; Squires, 2001).
Parameters for Estimating the Affected Area
Wind speed
The wind speed parameter was downloaded NASA satellite
data for 19 stations distributed inside and around the study
area (Figure 3).
Wind direction
The wind direction of the study area was determined
through the Natural Earth website. The GEOS-5 data used
on this site was provided by the Global Modeling and As-
similation Office at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center
through the online data portal in the NASA Center for
Climate Simulation. The general direction of the wind in
September and October was mostly northwest and west
and occasionally, southwest. Visual data were sourced from
the referenced website.
Sand particle sizes
As mentioned in the preceding texts, the main sand sizes
were grouped into three types: suspension particles, which
are less than 0.1 mm in diameter, saltation particles, which
range from 0.05 to 0.5 mm in diameter, and surface creep,
which are large particles with 0.5- to 2-mm diameter.
ArcGIS provides powerful tools for comprehensive, raster-
based spatial analysis. In this study, the distances from the
Figure 3. Stations distribution of NASA meteorological data. [Colour
figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Q. M. AJAJ ET AL.
source are distributed based on the sand particles involved.
Figure 4 illustrates the distribution of the distances.
The spatial analyst extension employs one of several in-
terpolation tools to create a surface grid in ArcGIS. Interpo-
lation predicts the values of cells at locations that lack
sample points. Furthermore, interpolation is based on the
principle of spatial autocorrelation or spatial dependents,
which measure the degree of relationship dependence be-
tween near and distant objects.
This paper used the spline interpolation method to inter-
polate or make a surface-to-wind speed parameter for
September and October 2014 downloaded from the NASA
satellite data using the RETScreen Plus program. The
downloaded data are illustrated in Table I. The spline es-
timate values are derived using a mathematical function
that minimizes the overall surface curvature resulting in
a smooth surface that passes the input points. Conceptu-
ally, it is similar to bending a sheet of rubber so that it
passes through the points as the total surface curvature is
minimized. Moreover, it can predict ridges and valleys in
the data and is the best method for representing the
smoothly varying surfaces of phenomena such as
temperature.
The two spline variations are regularized and tension. A
regularized spline incorporates the first (slope), second (rate
of change in slope), and third derivatives (rate of change in
the second derivative) into its minimization calculations. Al-
though a tension spline uses only first and second deriva-
tives, it includes more points in the spline calculations,
which usually creates smoother surfaces but increases com-
putation time.
Wind direction
As previously mentioned, wind direction was obtained from
the Natural Earth website (GEOS-5 data) and the MODIS
Figure 4. Sand source distance analysis map. [Colour figure can be viewed
at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
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 SPATIAL MONITORING OF DESERTIFICATION 2423

Table I. Wind speed (source: NASA) data for September and Wind speed and distance analysis layers were used for raster
October 2014 calculation.
Station name September 2014 October 2014 This study considered four criteria for sandstorm suscep-
tibility: health, plantation, visibility, and roads. The closest
Wind speed (m/s) Wind speed (m/s) region to a sandstorm includes all types of sand particles;
Abo kamal 3.47 3.56 hence, roads are covered by creep particles; furthermore,
Al-Hay 3.07 3.22 plantation and heath are affected by saltation, and visibility
AMARA 4.53 3.58 is very low. The second region from the source of a sand-
Baghdad 3.07 3.22 storm is affected by saltation particles, but not much by
Hadithah 3.88 3.59
Hit 3.28 3.40 suspended particles; hence, most detrimental effects are ob-
Karbalā 3.07 3.22 served on plantation and health, rather than on visibility and
Khanaqen 3.42 2.80 roads. The third region from the source is the least affected
Kirkuk 3.79 3.28 across the four criteria as it is mostly affected by suspended
Kut 3.07 3.22 particles alone. Finally, the fourth region is the most affected
Mandali 3.52 3.01
Najaf 3.07 3.22 in terms of health, the second in plantation and visibility,
Nasirya 3.52 3.01 and the least affected in roads. In summary, the health
Ramadi 3.44 3.80 criteria are most affected in the fourth region, followed in
Rawah 3.88 3.59 descending order by the first, second, and third regions.
Rutba 3.47 3.56 Visibility, plantation, and road criteria indicated the same
Samaraa 3.42 2.80
Samāwah 3.07 3.22 order in effectiveness as the first region, followed in
Tuz 3.42 2.80 descending order by the second, fourth, and third regions.
The criteria were then classified, and the range was
applied. The four maps helped ascertain the criteria for
products. This study determined the area most affected by September and October. The analytic hierarchy process
wind direction on September and October 2014. method was applied to weigh the criteria following the exper-
iment and analysis and to predict overall susceptibility for
Susceptibility Analysis each month. Tables II and III show the results of the analytic
September and October each used spline interpolation and hierarchy process pairwise comparison matrix and the normal-
distance analysis for raster calculation. The Raster Calculator ized matrix, as well as the consistency ration of the criteria.
is a powerful tool for multiple tasks, including mathematical
calculations using operators and functions, selection queries,
RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
or Map Algebra syntax. Inputs can be raster datasets or raster
layers, coverages, shape files, tables, constants, and numbers. 1990 Classification Results
Figure 5(a) shows the spatial distribution of four land cover,
whereas Figure 6(a) and (c) displays the percentage of the
Table II. Analytic hierarchy process pairwise comparison matrix four land cover classes and area in square kilometer. The
Pairwise comparison matrix dominant class is sand, which represents approximately
78.93% of the study area or 40,146.82 km2. In contrast,
Criteria Health Plantation Visibility Roads the urban class covers the smallest area of approximately
Health 1.000 1.800 2.200 3.000 298.026 km2, which represents 0.6% of the study area.
Plantation 0.556 1.000 2.000 3.000 Vegetation has the second highest percentage of the study
Visibility 0.455 0.500 1.000 3.000 area at approximately 12.5% or 6358.26 km2. The same
Roads 0.333 0.333 0.333 1.000 figure shows rivers and lakes covering 7.97% of the study
Summation 2.343 3.633 5.533 10.000
area or 4058.04 km2.

Table III. Analytic hierarchy process normalized matrix and consistency ratio

Normalized comparison matrix

Criteria Health Plantation Visibility Roads Weight Products Ratio

Health 0.427 0.495 0.398 0.300 0.405 1.676 4.138
Plantation 0.237 0.275 0.361 0.300 0.293 1.220 4.158
Visibility 0.194 0.138 0.181 0.300 0.203 0.830 4.085
Roads 0.142 0.092 0.060 0.100 0.099 0.399 4.049
Summation 1.00 CI= 0.036
CI/RI= 0.040

Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT, 28: 2418–2431 (2017)
2424 Q. M. AJAJ ET AL.

Figure 5. Classified maps of land cover using maximum likelihood classification algorithm in (a) 1990, (b) 2002, and (c) 2014. [Colour figure can be viewed at
wileyonlinelibrary.com]

2002 Classification Results
Figure 5(b) shows their spatial distribution. Figure 6(a) and
(c) displays the percentage of the four land cover classes
and area in square kilometer. The dominant class is sand,
which covers 78.87% of the study area or 40,115.88 km2.
The urban class covers the smallest area at 353.1204 km2
or 0.7% of the study area. Vegetation is the second most
prevalent class in the study area, covering 14.6% or
7427.25 km2. Rivers and lakes cover 5.83% of the study
area or 2964.88 km2.

Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT, 28: 2418–2431 (2017)
 SPATIAL MONITORING OF DESERTIFICATION
Figure 6. The (a) land cover classes and (b) percentages of study area in three epochs. [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
2014 Classification Results
Figure 5(c) shows their spatial distribution, while Figure 6
(a) and (c) displays the percentage of the four land cover
classes and area in square kilometer. The dominate class is
sand, which covers 83% of the study area or
42,206.46 km2. In contrast, the urban class covers the
smallest area at 384.4404 km2 or 0.75% of the study area.
Vegetation was the second most prevalent class at 10.91%
of the study area or 5549.35 km2. Rivers and lakes cover
5.34% of the study area or approximately 2720.95 km2.
The overall accuracy assessment and kappa coefficient are
illustrated in Table IV.
Change Detection Outcomes
Change detection is discussed in short and long-term change
detection analyses (Figure 7(a)–(c)).
Short-term change detection analysis
The short-term change detection is shown in 1990–2002
and 2002–2014 (Figure 7(a) and (b)). Changes during
the aforementioned periods were identified and analyzed
based on the outputs of Figures 7 and 8 and the details
in Tables V and VI. The driving forces of the changes
were also identified based on the analysis results. Sand
class decreased from 40,147 to 40,116 km2 in the first
period, converting mostly to vegetation and water classes.
This sand reduction is attributed to the government-
supported irrigation development during this period. In
the second period, this decline was followed by a notable
increase of 2100 km2, which was attributed to negligence
of agricultural land following the 2003 war, in which 8%
of sand classes were converted from vegetation class in
addition to the climate effect. The urban class notably
Table IV. Classification accuracies of the satellite images for 1990, 2002, and 2014
1990
Classes Producer’s acc. % User’s acc. %
Sand 94.85 83.53
Water 95.07 95.95
Vegetation 91.68 95.76
Urban 80.45 96.07
Overall accuracy 90.8697%
Kappa coefficient 0.8751
Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
2425
increased during the two periods with net change per-
centages of 18 and 9%, respectively. This increase was
noted in areas close to the river because of the residen-
tial expansion and increasing population growth rates,
especially in main cities located in the study area. In
contrast, water class decreased during the two periods
of study by 30 and 9%, respectively, because of unstable
water policies, particularly regarding the water content of
the lakes. Furthermore, vegetation increased and de-
creased slightly in the aforementioned periods. During
the first period, vegetation increased by 17% because of
the development of irrigation systems used to convert
around 7% of sand to planted areas. In contrast, during
the second period, the vegetation area deteriorated by ap-
proximately 25% because of the neglect of agriculture,
the dependence on agricultural imports, and of the reduc-
tion in precipitation.
Long-term change detection analysis
The 24-year period was examined to understand the long-
term changes in the study area (Figure 7(c)).Table VII
shows the significant changes that occurred during the
studied period. Sand increased by about 5% for a net
change of approximately 2100 km2, which is considerable
compared with other classes. This result was attributed to
various reasons, including, but not limited to, the reduc-
tion of precipitation, the neglect of agriculture lands fol-
lowing the 2003 war, and the changes in climate. Urban
class increased from 298 to 384 km2 because of the con-
tinuous increases in population rates and living income. In
contrast, water and vegetation classes decreased during
the studied periods. Vegetation decreased by about
810 km2 because approximately 27% of vegetation area
2002 2014
Producer’s acc. % User’s acc. % Producer’s acc. % User’s acc. %
91.54 90.17 94.85 83.53
97.86 100 95.07 95.95
100 99.70 91.68 95.76
85.33 86.26 80.45 96.07
94.2598% 91.4915%
0.9213 0.8818
LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT, 28: 2418–2431 (2017)
2426 Q. M. AJAJ ET AL.

Figure 7. Spatial pattern of land use and land cover changes during (a) 1990–2002, (b) 2002–2014, and (c) 1990–2014. [Colour figure can be viewed at
wileyonlinelibrary.com]

Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT, 28: 2418–2431 (2017)
 SPATIAL MONITORING OF DESERTIFICATION 2427

Figure 8. Susceptibility criteria for September 2014 for (a) health, (b) plantation, (c) visibility, and (d) roads. [Colour figure can be viewed at
wileyonlinelibrary.com]

Table V. The confusion matrix of change area between 1990 and 2002

2002 Classes 1990

Sand Water Urban Vegetation Class total

2 2 2 2 2
Area (km ) Area (km ) Area (km ) Area (km ) Area (km ) Area (km2)

Sand 36,914.7996 2925.7776 254.2788 37.2987 36,914.7996

Water 1053.4338 117.9324 4.6287 2881.0431 1053.4338
Urban 210.1635 48.8376 38.9808 0.0387 210.1635
Vegetation 1926.0018 4331.7801 55.1997 44.2836 1926.0018
Class total 40,132.15 40,132.15 40,132.15 40,132.15 40,132.15

was converted to sand area. Furthermore, irrigation sys- reduction. Furthermore, 37.7% of water bodies were con-
tems were used less following the 2003 war. Additionally, verted to sand. This reduction was attributed to water
water decreased from 4058 to 2721 km2, a record of 32% policies and reduced precipitation.

Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT, 28: 2418–2431 (2017)
2428 Q. M. AJAJ ET AL.

Table VI. The confusion matrix of change area during 2002–2014

2014 Classes 2002

Sand Water Urban Vegetation Class total
2 2 2 2 2
Area (km ) Area (km ) Area (km ) Area (km ) Area (km ) Area (km2)

Sand 40,115.88 1557.978 255.0996 366.2901 37936.51

Water 2964.884 119.1816 0.4293 2266.329 578.9439
Urban 353.1204 33.8274 70.857 1.3707 247.0653
Vegetation 7427.251 3838.354 58.0545 86.9562 3443.886
Class total 40,115.88 1557.978 255.0996 366.2901 37936.51

Table VII. The confusion matrix of change area during 1990–2014

2014 Classes 1990

Sand Water Urban Vegetation Class total

Area (km2) Area (km2) Area (km2) Area (km2) Area (km2) Area (km2)
Sand 40,132.16 1763.267 278.1981 279.1692 37,811.52
Water 4057.038 163.404 1.0053 2361.728 1530.901
Urban 298.0206 63.5571 50.9571 0.5976 182.9088
Vegetation 6357.265 3557.5 54.2025 77.4252 2668.137
Class total 40,132.16 1763.267 278.1981 279.1692 37,811.52

vehicles. The second most susceptible regions (orange

Sandstorm Susceptibility of the Area color) for plantation, visibility, and roads are shown in
Susceptibility criteria in September 2014 Figure 8(b)–(d), respectively. These regions are largely
In this study, the four criteria affected by sandstorms are affected by saltation and some suspended sand particles.
health, plantations, visibility, and roads. Figure 8(a) and The susceptibilities of plantation, visibility, and roads in
(b) shows the susceptibility of health and plantations in the third region (green color) are low given the low effect
September 2014. For health, the red color represents a of sandstorms. The last region, which is the farthest area
very high susceptibility in that region because the from the source and represented by the color yellow, is
suspended sand caused respiratory diseases, such as moderately susceptible, as particles fall on it, affecting
asthma and lung damage, as well as eye inflammation. plantation, visibility, and roads.
Dust may also contain toxic metals, such as arsenic and
mercury, which are very harmful to human beings. The
second degree of health is represented by the color orange,
which indicates the high susceptibility in areas near sand-
storm sources, which are affected by all types of sand par-
ticles. The third degree of health susceptibility is marked
by the color yellow, which are regions whereby saltation
and suspended particles are far too dense for humans.
The green color in the map represents low susceptibility
of health, which is found in regions where small amounts
of suspended sand particles fall, as shown in Figure 8(a).
The effect of sandstorms on plantation in September
2014 is the same as the effect on visibility and roads.
The color red in Figure 8(b) shows the extremely high
susceptibility of plantations in that area, as the region is
close to the source of sandstorms and is directly affected
by all sand particle sizes, which cover plantations.
Figure 8(c) shows that visibility in the region closest to
the source of sandstorms is highly susceptible, reaching
as low as several meters. Roads in the same region are
especially susceptible to creep and saltation sand particles, Figure 9. The overall susceptibility for September 2014. [Colour figure can
which can cover the roads and prevent the movement of be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]

Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT, 28: 2418–2431 (2017)
 SPATIAL MONITORING OF DESERTIFICATION 2429

Overall susceptibility criteria in September 2014 Susceptibility criteria in October 2014

Figure 9 illustrates the overall susceptibility to sandstorms
of health, plantation, visibility, and roads in September
2014 as 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1, respectively. The map con-
tains three degrees of susceptibility: very high, high, and
low. The color red represents an extremely high susceptibil-
ity of the combined criteria and is distributed in the first and
last regions relative to the sandstorm source area. The color
orange denotes the high susceptibility of the combined
criteria and lies in the second region, far from the sandstorm
source. The green color depicts low susceptibility of the
criteria and dominates the third region far from the sand-
storm source. The blank or white area is unaffected by the
new source of sandstorms, but may be affected by other
sandstorm sources. This area suffers from sandstorms origi-
nating from the Iraq desert, as well as outside its boundaries.
Figure 10(a) shows the susceptibility of health to sandstorms
in October 2014. Red areas, distributed in the middle north
and south of the study area, are highly susceptible. Orange
areas, adjoining the boundary of the source area, are also
highly susceptible. The yellow area near the source area
yet farther than the highly susceptible areas is moderately
susceptible. The green area experiences low susceptibility
and is in the north, certain parts of the middle, and east of
the study area.
Figure 10(b) shows the susceptibility of plantations to
sandstorms in October 2014. The red area, which adjoins
the boundary of the source area, is highly susceptible. The
orange area, which is farther from the source area than the
red area, is highly susceptible. The yellow area in the south
and middle north parts of the affected area is moderately

Figure 10. Susceptibility criteria for October 2014 for (a) health, (b) plantation, (c) visibility, and (d) roads. [Colour figure can be viewed at
wileyonlinelibrary.com]

Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. LAND DEGRADATION & DEVELOPMENT, 28: 2418–2431 (2017)
2430
Figure 11. The overall susceptibility for October 2014. [Colour figure can
be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]
susceptible. The green and least susceptible area is in the
north, some parts of the middle, and east of the affected area.
Figure 10(c) shows that the susceptibility of visibility to
sandstorms in October 2014 is similar to that of plantations.
The red area, adjoining the boundary of the source area, is
highly susceptible. The orange area, just beyond the red
area, is also highly susceptible. The yellow, moderately sus-
ceptible area is in the south and middle north parts of the af-
fected area. The green and least susceptible area is in the
north, some parts of the middle, and east of the affected area.
Figure 10(d) illustrates the susceptibility of roads to sand-
storms in October 2014, which is similar to the susceptibility
of plantations and visibility during the same period.
Overall susceptibility criteria in October 2014
Figure 11 illustrates that the overall susceptibility to sand-
storms of health, plantations, visibility, and roads is 0.4,
0.3, 0.2, and 0.1, respectively, in October 2014. The map
contains three degrees of susceptibility: very high, high,
and low. The color red represents very high susceptibility
of the combined criteria and is distributed in the region
adjoining the sandstorm source area and the middle of the
affected area. The south and middle north of the affected
area were also dominated by very high susceptibility. The
color orange denotes the high susceptibility of the combined
criteria and is very small, to the point of being unrecogniz-
able on the map. The color green represents areas with low
susceptibility of the criteria and is found mainly in the north,
middle, and east parts of the affected area. The blank or
white area is the area unaffected by this new source of sand-
storms relative to the wind direction of the region, but
suffers from sandstorms originating in the desert and outside
the boundaries of Iraq.
This research aimed to demonstrate the different methods
of using spectral and spatial attributes for extracting land
Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Q. M. AJAJ ET AL.
cover of sand, urban, water bodies, and vegetation and to
use the results in post-classification change detection analy-
sis. Landsat images from 1990, 2002, and 2014 were ac-
quired for West Iraq, which adjoins the West desert of the
country, and were classified using pixel-oriented maximum
likelihood and support vector machine classifiers. The study
area was affected by desertification in 1990–2014. Before
1990, the region was significantly stable; however, changes
in climatic conditions and war affected the land cover,
thereby increasing desertification.
CONCLUSION
Change detection analysis results showed the detected
changes in land cover classes, particularly in environmental
desertification. Landsat images were utilized to monitor the
extent of desertification from 1990 to 2014. Maximum like-
lihood algorithm was used to classify the images for four
main classes: sand, vegetation, water, and urban, under An-
derson Scheme Level 1. Hence, remote sensing can be
employed for monitoring land cover. GIS is an effective
technique for analyzing the hazards of sandstorms in desert
areas. Hazards can be identified based on the wind speeds
and the physical properties of sand. The processing involves
many factors such as wind speed, wind direction, and phys-
ical properties of sand particles for specific time which is
September and October 2014. This is because the sandstorm
mostly occurs in these months. The affected area has been
classified into many strips depending on the health, planta-
tion, visibility, and road factors of the hazard. Although this
study achieved its objectives, its results suffered a number of
limitations. First, the satellite imagery sensors did not have
high spatial resolution, making it necessary to use the open
source Landsat data. Second, the classification land cover re-
sults were affected by the data resolution, which affected the
change detection analysis results. Finally, the meteorologi-
cal data were very weak in the sandstorm samples, which
decreased the validity of the study.
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