Case Analysis Study about:

Issues between Iran and U.S.A.

Submitted by:

Ira Mhae Villasoto

Submitted to:

Ms. Rosemarie L. Santos

February 2020
 Case Study: Tension between Iran and the United States

Few nations have relationships as troubled as Iran and the US.

Today, whether it comes to international terrorism, nuclear proliferation, fossil fuels, the United
Nations or the Middle East Process, there are few global issues where the strained relation
between the US and Iran are not clearly felt. As a result, there are few instances where cultural
diplomacy is more desperately needed.

In this regard, it has become absolutely vital to arrive at a clear understanding of the relations
between these two nations. What follows is a case study of precisely that. The study will begin with
a brief summary of the past and present relations of Iran and the US including attempts to reach a
dialogue. The case study will the conclude with an analysis of the situation and some suggestions
for future endeavors.

It is a war with an origin story that dates all the way back to 1953. That’s when the Iranians believe
America truly picked this fight. For, in 1953, the US staged coup d’etat in Iran to take down a
popular, secular and nationalist prime minister, only to put an indulgent monarch, known as the
Shah, in charge. It’s that American coup that led to the 1979 revolution that placed an ayatollah on
the throne and the rule of the mullahs still in power today. The very same mullahs that the now-
dead General Soleimani served.

When the Iranians revolted against the Shah, they overran the US Embassy in Tehran, taking
dozens of American diplomats and Marines hostage, parading them on international television, as
seen in the 2012 Hollywood movie “Argo.” That is when this war began. Not with this drone strike.
In 1983, Iran blew up a Marine barracks at the US Embassy in Beirut, killing dozens. President
Ronald Reagan abandoned Lebanon and it appeared Iran has chased the US out of the region.
That same year an Iraqi man called Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis car-bombed the US Embassy in
Kuwait. Though he escaped, with Iran’s help, he was sentenced to death in absentia in Kuwait for
the bombing. It’s believed he then went on to help hijack passenger planes

Western intelligence agencies also accuse him of involvement in the hijacking of a Kuwaiti airliner
in 1984 and the attempted assassination of a Kuwaiti prince. The one who was in the same convoy
when the drone missile struck was the same car bomber, al-Muhandis. Al-Muhandis, also known
as Jamal Jafaar Mohammed, was twice elected to the democratic Iraqi Parliament the US created
after the fall of the dictator Saddam Hussein. He was Soleimani’s number one man in Iraq. In
Parliament. Right under the noses of the US military. It was CNN who revealed as-Muhandis’
identity. At first, an unwitting US government did not believe CNN. But when the US government
checked, and confirmed the bomber of their embassy was, in fact, in parliament, al-Muhandis fled
Baghdad for the border crossing to Iran. Al-Muhandis was there to greet Soleimani on Friday at
Baghdad airport in Iraq—a country the Iranian general virtually ran and controlled. Solemani’s
plane had just landed and he was with al-Muhandis in the convoy leaving the airport when the
drone struck killing them both.

Analysis
Practically, these are acts of war, though there’s no formal war declaration. First, the U.S. took out
an Iranian military leader in a third country and now Iran has struck U.S. troops. Javad Zariff, the
Iranian Foreign Minister, said, “Iran took and concluded proportionate measures in self defence
under Article 51 of the UN Charter targeting base from which cowardly armed attack against our
citizens and senior officials were launched.”
The Article allows states take action in self-defence when they are under attack. Mr. Zariff has
added that Iran doesn’t seek “escalation or war, but will defend ourself against any aggression”.
The Iranian response was expected. The call for revenge was reverberating throughout the
procession rallies of Soleimani. A mosque in Shia, holy city of Qom in Iran had unfurled a red flag
indicating that war was coming. There are several scenarios that could lead the conflict to an all-
out war. First, if Mr. Trump orders air strikes inside Iran, it would trigger further military response
from Iran and the conflict will immediately spiral out of control. Second, even if Mr. Trump steps
back from further retaliation, Iran could target U.S. troops inside Iraq through its proxies such as
the Badr Brigade and Kataib Hezbollah. That will drag the U.S. into a deeper conflict. Third, Shia
militias operate with relative autonomy. Tehran may not be micromanaging them. Infuriated by the
loss of their commander, they could act without authorization from Tehran against U.S. troops in
Iraq, which could trigger a harsher response from the U.S. against Iran. Dragging both countries
into war. In the event of a war, the U.S. can carry out devastating air strikes inside Iran, while Iran
could trigger multiple conflicts in the region through its proxies.
 Attributes

Political

Politically, Iran has been the most dynamic and controversial experiment in blending Islam and
democracy- and the experiment is far from over. It continues to play out in the domestic political
crisis ignited by the disputed 2009 presidential election. The outcome of its experiment could affect
the wider Islamic world as profoundly as its revolution.

Economic

The conflict between Iran and the United States will lead to fluctuations in currency and stock
markets and an immediate rise in the price of oil and gold, the Commerce Ministry has warned.
Pimchanok Vonkorpon, director-general of the ministry’s Trade Policy and Strategy Office, issued
the warning in the wake of the U.S. assassination of Iranian top general Qasem Soleimani.

Social

In this attribute, people from U.S. and Iran were threatened for the possible war. Some articles and
resources states that there were people who migrated to other country to ensure their safety. Here
in the Philippines, the Government sent two battalions of soldiers, along with air and naval assets,
to assist in the repatriation of Filipino workers in Iraq and Iran. The Philippine Embassy in Iraq has
issued Alert Level 4, calling for evacuation or mandatory repatriation in the country.

Cultural

U.S. President Donald Trump backed away from his threats to target Iranian cultural sites if Iran
retaliates against the United States for killing one of its top generals. Targeting cultural sites is a
war crime. Trump tweeted that the U.S.had 52 Iranian sites, including ones that are very important
to Iranian culture, it could attack if Iran attacks Americans or U.S. assets. Targeting cultural sites
with military action is considered a war crime under international law, including a UN Security
Council resolution supported by the Trump administration in 2017 and the 1954 Hague Convention
for the Protection of Cultural Property.
Exhibit
References:

https://www.gisresportsonline.com/56,i.html

https://www.thehindu.com/news/international/analysis-what-is-next-in-iran-us-
conflict/article30510865.ece/amp/

https://businessmirror.com.ph/2019/06/27/global-implications-of-us-iran-conflict/

https://www.max-security.com/security-blog/implications-of-recent-escalation-in-us-iran-tensions-iran-
analysis/

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221484501930280X

https://bangkokpost/business/1829204/iarm-us-conflict-will-hurt-global-economy-govt

https://bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-24316661

https://japantimes.co.jp/news/2020/01/18/asia-pacific/us-iran-tensions-china-economy/

https://news.stanford.edu/2020/01/08/future-u-s-iran-relations/