Survey of Likely General Election Voters

Kentucky Statewide
Conducted October 19 - 20, 2020
n=640 | ±3.87%
 1. How likely are you to vote in the November 3rd general elections for President and Congress
out of the following options?

Freq. %
Definitely voting 630 98.4%
Probably voting 10 1.6%
Probably not voting 0 0.0%
Total 640 100.0%

2. How do you plan to participate in the November 3rd election, or what method did you already
use to vote?
Freq. %
Will vote in-person on Election Day 157 24.5%
Will vote by mail 39 6.1%
Already voted by mail 143 22.3%
Will vote early in-person 162 25.4%
Already voted early in-person 123 19.2%
Unsure 16 2.5%
Total 640 100.0%

3. If the November elections were held today, and you had to make a choice, would you be
voting for the Republican or Democratic candidate for Congress?

Freq. %
Republican candidate 350 54.6%
Definitely the Republican candidate 325 50.8%
Probably the Republican candidate 24 3.8%

Democratic candidate 250 39.0%

Probably the Democratic candidate 23 3.6%
Definitely the Democratic candidate 226 35.4%

Unsure 41 6.4%
Total 640 100.0%

4 - 6. Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of:

Very No
Fav Very Unfav NHO NET Fav
Unfav opinion
53.7% 40.3% 40.8% 28.9% 4.6% 0.9%
Andy Beshear 13.0%
344 258 261 185 30 6
49.5% 30.4% 47.7% 39.5% 2.4% 0.5%
Mitch McConnell 1.8%
317 195 305 253 15 3
Amy McGrath 41.0% 24.6% 53.2% 42.4% 4.5% 1.3% -12.2%

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 262 157 340 271 29 8

Thinking about the upcoming general elections on November 3rd...

7. If the general election for United States Senate was held today, and you had to make a
choice, who would you vote for?

Freq. %
Republican Mitch McConnell 322 50.2%
Democrat Amy McGrath 255 39.9%
Libertarian Brad Barron 32 5.0%
Undecided 31 4.9%
Total 640 100.0%

Thinking about the coronavirus pandemic…

8. Generally speaking, would you say that you are more concerned about the public health or
economic impact of COVID-19?

Freq. %
Public health impact 298 46.6%
Definitely the public health impact 236 36.8%
Probably the public health impact 63 9.8%

Economic impact 300 46.9%

Probably the economic impact 98 15.3%
Definitely the economic impact 202 31.6%

Unsure 41 6.4%
Total 640 100.0%

9. Generally speaking, would you say you support or oppose giving parents control over a
portion of the tax dollars designated for their child’s education when their child’s school is
closed for in-person learning?

Freq. %
Support 353 55.2%
Strongly support 218 34.0%
Somewhat support 135 21.1%

Neither support nor oppose 95 14.9%

Oppose 129 20.2%

Somewhat oppose 56 8.8%
Strongly oppose 73 11.4%

Unsure 62 9.7%

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 Total 640 100.0%

10. Are you female or male?

Freq. %
Female 343 53.7%
Male 297 46.3%
Total 640 100.0%

11. What age range do you fall within?

Freq. %
Under 50 250 39.1%
18 – 34 105 16.4%
35 – 49 145 22.7%

50 and Over 390 60.9%

50 – 64 192 30.0%
65 or older 198 30.9%
Total 640 100.0%

12. How are you registered to vote in Kentucky? You may consider yourself of a different party,
but what does your voter registration card show?

Freq. %
Republican 308 48.2%
Democrat 269 42.0%
Other 48 7.6%
Unsure 14 2.3%
Total 640 100.0%

13. General Election X/4 (1/4, 2/4, 3/4, 4/4)

Freq. %
0 of 4 42 6.5%
1 of 4 71 11.0%
2 of 4 106 16.5%
3 of 4 90 14.1%
4 of 4 332 51.9%
Total 640 100.0%

14. Geo - DMA

Freq. %
Pad/Cape Gir/Har 41 6.4%
Bowling Green 33 5.2%
Charleston/Huntn 35 5.5%
Cincinnati 70 10.9%
Evansville 24 3.7%

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 Knoxville 7 1.1%
Lexington 195 30.5%
Louisville 203 31.8%
Nashville 24 3.8%
Tri-Cities Tn/Va 8 1.2%
Total 640 100.0%
15. Geo - Congressional District

Freq. %
West 210 32.8%
1 96 15.0%
2 113 17.7%

North 223 34.8%

3 102 15.9%
4 121 19.0%

East 207 32.4%

5 85 13.3%
6 123 19.2%
Total 640 100.0%

16. Age + Gender

Freq. %
F 18 - 34 55 8.5%
F 35 - 49 78 12.3%
F 50 - 64 102 15.9%
F 65+ 109 17.0%
M 18 - 34 50 7.9%
M 35 - 49 67 10.5%
M 50 - 64 90 14.1%
M 65+ 89 13.9%
Total 640 100.0%
17. Retirement Age (<65 vs. 65+) + Income

Freq. %
<65 <$50k 90 14.1%
<65 $50k-$99k 219 34.2%
<65 $100k+ 128 19.9%
65+ <$50k 74 11.6%
65+ $50k-$99k 79 12.3%
65+ $100k+ 41 6.4%
Unknown 10 1.5%
Total 640 100.0%

18. Ballot Drop Off-ers

Freq. %
Yes 17 2.7%
No 623 97.3%
Total 640 100.0%

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19. Party from File
Freq. %
Republican 293 45.8%
Democratic 311 48.6%
Other 36 5.6%
Total 640 100.0%
20. Race
Freq. %
White 550 86.0%
Black 41 6.4%
Hispanic/Latino 14 2.3%
Asian 8 1.2%
Other 7 1.1%
Unknown 20 3.1%
Total 640 100.0%

21. Income
Freq. %
<$50k 164 25.7%
$50k-$99k 297 46.5%
$100k+ 168 26.3%
Unknown 10 1.5%
Total 640 100.0%

22. Generation
Freq. %
Gen Z 15 2.4%
Millennials 143 22.4%
Gen X 135 21.2%
Boomers 265 41.5%
Traditionalists 81 12.6%
Total 640 100.0%
23. White Working Class
Freq. %
Yes 143 22.4%
No 497 77.6%
Total 640 100.0%

24. White College Degree

Freq. %
White College
142 22.1%
Degree
Other 498 77.9%
Total 640 100.0%

25. Education
Freq. %
Bachelor's degree or higher 170 26.6%
Some college 113 17.6%
High school or less 171 26.8%
Unknown 185 29.0%
Total 640 100.0%

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26. Education + Gender
Freq. %
Female College degree 83 12.9%
Female No degree 151 23.6%
Female Unknown 110 17.1%
Male College degree 87 13.7%
Male No degree 133 20.8%
Male Unknown 76 11.9%
Total 640 100.0%

27. Partisanship + Age

Freq. %
Republican 18 – 34 39 6.1%
Republican 35 – 49 49 7.7%
Republican 50 – 64 114 17.8%
Republican 65 or older 106 16.6%
Democrat 18 – 34 47 7.4%
Democrat 35 – 49 76 11.9%
Democrat 50 – 64 66 10.3%
Democrat 65 or older 80 12.5%
Other 18 – 34 16 2.6%
Other 35 – 49 16 2.5%
Other 50 – 64 11 1.7%
Other 65 or older 5 0.8%
Unsure 14 2.3%
Total 640 100.0%

28. Partisanship + Gender

Freq. %
Republican Female 150 23.5%
Republican Male 158 24.7%
Democrat Female 162 25.3%
Democrat Male 107 16.7%
Other Female 22 3.4%
Other Male 26 4.1%
Unsure 14 2.3%
Total 640 100.0%

METHODOLOGY
This probabilistic survey was conducted October 19 – 20, 2020, with 640 likely general election voters. It has a
margin of error of ±3.87%. Known registered voters were interviewed via live phones, IVR, and SMS invitation.
This survey was weighted to likely general election voter universe.

ABOUT THE FIRM

Cygnal is an award-winning national public opinion and predictive analytics firm that pioneered multi-mode
polling, peer-to-peer text collection, and Political Emotive Analysis. Cygnal was recently named the #1
Republican private pollster by Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight, as well as the #1 most accurate polling and research
firm in the country for 2018 by The New York Times. Its team members have worked in 47 states and countries
on more than 1,100 corporate, public affairs, and political campaigns.

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