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 CIRED 2020 Berlin Workshop Berlin, 4 - 5 June 2020

Paper 265

Smart Meter-Driven Estimation of PV Hosting Capacity

Andreas T. Procopiou 1, Michael Z. Liu* 1, Luis F. Ochoa 1
Tom Langstaff 2 and Justin Harding 2
1
Department of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia
2
AusNet Services, Melbourne, Australia
*andreasprocopiou@ieee.org

r
Keywords: DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS, PV HOSTING CAPACITY, SMART METERS, ANALYTICS

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Abstract
As residential solar PV continues to grow around the world, voltage rise issues are expected to occur on the very infrastructure
they are connected to: the low-voltage (LV) networks. To avoid connection requests being unnecessarily delayed or even
rejected, distribution companies need to adequately assess the extent to which LV networks can host solar PV. This paper
proposes a smart meter-driven methodology to quickly estimate the hosting capacity of LV networks without the need of

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complex and detailed network studies or the adoption of generic assumptions. Using smart meter data, a simple -yet practical-
univariate regression model is trained to estimate the average (diversified) active power per customer that can lead to voltages
outside the upper statutory limit. This value, in turn, can be used to calculate the additional PV capacity that can be hosted by
the LV network. The proposed methodology is adopted considering smart meter data produced from realistic simulations of
progressive PV penetrations on a real Australian HV feeder supplying 79 LV networks. Findings show that the proposed
analytical technique provides adequate estimations of hosting capacity, making it a faster and simpler alternative to model-based
approaches.
ed
1 Introduction capacity that can be hosted by the LV network. To understand
what the HC estimation might mean across customers, the
As solar PV penetrations continue to grow around the world, estimated diversified active power per customer is presented
significant technical challenges (i.e., voltage rise, asset including prediction limits to cater for uncertainties.
congestion) are expected to occur on the very infrastructure
they are connected to: the low-voltage (LV) and medium- The performance of the proposed methodology is assessed on
voltage (MV) networks [1, 2]. As such, many Distribution a real Australian MV-LV feeder considering hybrid smart
pt

Network Operators (DNOs) have adopted simple approaches
to estimate PV penetration limits (e.g., percentage of the
capacity of the distribution transformer, number of PV
installations, etc.).
ce
meter data from a 5-year horizon with progressive PV
penetrations. For the later, actual anonymized demand and
irradiance profiles were used to run unbalanced, time-series
power flows for multiple days to extract customer voltages.

Whilst, in principle, the use of a PV penetration limit is a 2. Smart Meter-Driven Hosting Capacity
sensible approach to swiftly deal with many connection A flowchart of the methodology proposed is present in Fig. 1
requests, the lack of advanced planning approaches has led and its main steps are descripted in this section.
DNOs to adopt values that might under or overestimate their
actual hosting capacity (HC), particularly due to voltage issues
in LV networks [3]. This, in turn, becomes a barrier for the
2.1. Methodology
widespread adoption of solar PV as it can create delays, Smart meter database. The daily smart meter data (i.e., P, Q,
Ac

increase cost, and could undermine the consumer V) from all customers (indexed 𝑖𝑖) in a given LV network are
attractiveness of the technology. extracted from the smart meter database.

This paper proposes a methodology based on smart meter data
to quickly estimate the HC of LV networks without the need
of complex and detailed network studies or the adoption of
generic assumptions. Leveraging historical smart meter data of
a given LV network (i.e., active/reactive power, voltage), a
simple -yet practical- univariate regression model is trained to
estimate the average (diversified) active power per customer
that can lead to voltages outside the upper statutory limit. This
value, in turn, can be used to calculate the additional PV
Data Processing. The smart meter data are then analyzed and
cleaned from missing and inconsistent values. Once cleaned,
the maximum voltage recorded for each day is identified and
the corresponding active powers (same timestamp) are added
up. Finally, a new dataset is produced containing the maximum
voltage and the aggregated power for each day.
Model Production. The new dataset is used to train a
supervised (i.e., gradient decent) univariate regression model

1
 CIRED 2020 Berlin Workshop
Clean of Data
𝑃𝑖,𝑡, 𝑄𝑖,𝑡 , 𝑉𝑖,𝑡 Identify daily max voltages
Calculate aggregated active
Aggregated P
power (P) corresponding to
Smart Meter Data daily maximum voltages
Database
Fig. 1 Smart Meter-Driven Hosting Capacity Estimation Flow chart
99% Prediction
Upper Limit
Confidence
Band
Smart
Meter
Data
Model
99% Prediction
Lower Limit
Performance
HC Estimations
Importing Exporting
Fig. 2 HC Estimation Model demonstration example
i.e., 𝑦 = 𝑎𝑥 + 𝑐, where 𝑦 is the dependant variable (i.e.,
maximum voltage), 𝑥 is the dependant variable (i.e.,
aggregated active power) and 𝑐 is the y-axis intercept. First,
the dataset is split in two subsets: the training (75% of dataset)
and test (15% of dataset) subsets. The training subset is used
ed
to train the model by adopting a gradient decent optimization
algorithm to find the minimum of the loss function (i.e., mean
square error of each predicted value of 𝑦 and 𝑥). Once the
training is finished, the test subset is used to evaluate the 𝑅2
performance of the trained model. 𝑅2 is a statistical measure
that describes the percentage (0 to 100%) of the dependent
variable variation been explained (correctly predicted) by the
pt
trained model. In general, the higher the 𝑅2 , the better the
model can predict the dependant variable (i.e., maximum
voltage) given an independent variable (i.e., active power).
HC Estimation. Once the model is produced, the HC of the
ce
LV network can be estimated by relating the aggregated active
power (or diversified per customer) to the voltage considered
to be the maximum acceptable voltage by the DNO (e.g., upper
statutory limit).
2.2. HC Estimation Model Demonstration
Ac
Fig. 2 presents an example of the HC Estimation Model. For
simplicity and demonstration purposes, the model was trained
using a limited volume of smart meter data.
The Y-axis corresponds to the daily maximum voltage (p.u.)
of all customers in the LV network while the X-axis
corresponds to the diversified imports/exports (kW) in the
corresponding LV network. The diversified imports/exports
(kW) correspond to the LV network aggregated active power
(i.e., net demand) divided by the total number of customers
connected to the LV network. While the model, in effect,
estimates the aggregated active power, this is presented as a
diversified value (per customer) in order to understand what
Berlin, 4 - 5 June 2020
Paper 265
Prepare Data
Training & Test Sets Estimated
Max V Hosting
Train Model
& Capacity
using training dataset
Evaluate Model HC Estimation Model
using test dataset
r
the HC estimation might mean across customers. It is
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important to highlight that a positive value here represents
power exports (i.e., demand lower than PV generation hence
reverse power flow) and a negative value represents power
imports (i.e., demand higher than PV generation).
The Model corresponds to the trained regression fit (𝑦 = 𝑎𝑥 +
𝑐), that allows estimating the maximum voltage (𝑦) in the LV
Pa
network for a given value of diversified active power (𝑥) and
its performance is denoted with the 𝑅2 . In general, the higher
the 𝑅2 , the better the model can predict a dependant variable
(i.e., maximum voltage) given an independent variable (i.e.,
aggregated active power). While this metric provides an
overall value of the model performance, other metrics (i.e.,
prediction limits, confidence band) should also be considered
to understand the level of estimation accuracy. As such the HC
estimation model provides also the 99% estimation prediction
limits (dashed grey lines). In other words, the estimated
maximum voltage has a 99% probability to lie between the
upper and lower prediction limits. Similarly, the confidence
band provides the 99% confidence level of the estimated
maximum voltages which in other words means that in
average, the maximum voltage considering different scenarios
(generation, demand) will be within this band. In other words,
the smaller the band, the more accurate is the trained model.
In terms of the HC estimations, the estimation model provides
three values, and these correspond to the:
• 𝑋ℎ𝑐−𝑚𝑜𝑑𝑒𝑙 , HC directly estimated by the model.
• 𝑋ℎ𝑐−99ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ , HC considering the upper prediction limit.
• 𝑋ℎ𝑐−99𝑙𝑜𝑤 , HC considering the lower prediction limit.
The 𝑋ℎ𝑐−99ℎ𝑖𝑔ℎ and 𝑋ℎ𝑐−99𝑙𝑜𝑤 can be considered as the range
of possible HC estimations with the former representing a
conservative estimation while the latter a more optimistic one.
3. Case Study
The performance of the proposed methodology is assessed
considering a large hybrid smart meter dataset of more than
4600+ residential customers from a 5-year horizon with
progressive PV penetrations. For the later, actual anonymized
demand (P, Q) and irradiance profiles were used to run
unbalanced, time-series power flows for multiple days to
extract customer voltages, V.
3.1. Real Australian HV Feeder
A real 22kV MV feeder, shown in Fig. 3, with 79 residential,
underground LV networks (circles) from Victoria, Australia,
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 CIRED 2020 Berlin Workshop Berlin, 4 - 5 June 2020

Paper 265

r
Fig. 3 MV-LV Network Topology

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Table 1 HC based on Smart Meter Data
Diversified Aggregated Penetration
kW kW (%)
Hosting Capacity 2.52 347 60
Fig. 4 HC Estimation at different PV penetrations
First Voltage Violation

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2.27 313 57
(worst case)
owned and operated by the DNO AusNet Services [4], is used
in the case study. For simplicity, the voltage at the head of the
HV feeder is considered to be constant at 22 kV (1.0 pu) which
corresponds to the voltage target setting used by the on-load
tap changers (OLTCs) at the substation. All LV transformer
off-load taps are assumed to be at position 2 (effectively
transforming to 420 V), leading to ~1.05p.u. of voltage on the
secondary side of the LV transformer assuming no-load
ed
conditions.
3.2. Hybrid Smart Meter Data
To create a realistic smart meter database for all residential
customers, detailed time-series power flow simulations were
performed for a duration of 5 years where the penetration of
pt
Considering all smart meter data in one of the largest LV
networks (500kVA transformer, supplying 138 customers), on
average, the HC found to be 320kW of exports (2.32kW
diversified), and this value is used to assess the performance
of the HC estimation model. Additionally, for comparison
purposes, the aggregated power of the first voltage violation
(i.e., 313kW-aggregated/2.27kW-diversified exports) is
considered understand the extent to which the model’s
prediction limits cover potential outliers (i.e., worst-case
scenario). These are also shown in Table 1.
Fig. 4, presents the HC estimation models constructed at
different penetration levels (10 to 70%, steps of 10%). For
example, for a given X% penetration level, the model is
constructed with all smart meter data from day 1 (0%) until the
day were X% of customers have a solar PV. This process is
trying to emulate real-life case scenarios where the user (e.g.,

solar PV (% of houses with PV) was progressively increasing

DNO) can use all available smart meter data (in a given LV
from 0 to 100% throughout the years. A random PV uptake is
network) until the current day (i.e., representing an X%
considered that allows emulating the evolution of PV system
penetration level) to construct the Smart Meter-Driven HC
integration and capturing their seasonal effects on the network,
Estimation Model. For clarity and additional information, all
in a progressive and realistic manner.
smart meter data points shown in Fig. 4 are colour-coded based
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on their distance from the LV transformer. This allows

At the end of the time-series power flow simulations, a set of
understanding where each maximum voltage point is located
87,600 P, Q and V points is created for each residential
within the network.
customer, representing 5-years’ (i.e., 30-min resolution) worth
of smart meter data measurements (P, Q and V). For simplicity
As it can be observed, the magnitude of the daily maximum
and ease of referencing, these data were timestamped in the
voltage is increasing with the penetration levels and around
form of YYYY-MM-DD HH:MM:SS and given a range
60% of PV penetration level, the total aggregated power is
Ac

between 2018-01-01 00:00:00 to 2022-12-30 23:30:00. In

total, the database of the hybrid smart meter data produced for
this case study consists of almost 1 billion data points (3Gb+).
3.3. Results – Individual LV Network
To assess the performance of the proposed methodology, the
estimation model is constructed at different penetration levels
of solar PV and the corresponding HC (i.e., amount of
aggregated/diversified kW leading to 1.1 of maximum
voltage) of the LV network is estimated to understand the
extent to which penetration level the proposed HC estimation
methodology can provide meaningful results.
leading to voltages that violate the upper statutory limit (i.e.,
1.1 p.u.). Considering the location (i.e., colour of data points)
of the maximum voltage , Fig. 4 shows that this is varying
through the days as new PV system are installed in different
locations within the network (i.e., random uptake). For
example, while at a given day the maximum voltage location
could be located at a customer with a PV system in the middle
of an LV feeder, a new PV system installation of the same size
located at the end of the feeder might lead to larger voltage rise
due to the larger electrical distance (i.e., higher impedance
between the head of the feeder and the customer). On the other
hand, a new larger PV system installation closer to the head of

3
 CIRED 2020 Berlin Workshop
Table 2 Overall Performance considering all 79 LV Networks
Penetration Level
Average Accuracy Error (%)
Percentage (%) of LV networks where Hosting
Capacity was included in the HC Estimation range
Percentage (%) of LV networks where the first voltage
r
violation was included in the HC Estimation range
another LV the feeder (connected to the same LV transformer)
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might lead to higher voltage rise. This effect is in fact more
obvious at low penetration levels (below 50%) where the
number of customers with PV systems is low, hence the
location and size of every new PV system installation can
affect the location of the maximum voltage. At larger
penetration levels (above 50%), where more and more PV
systems are likely to be installed further to the LV transformer,
Pa
the location of the maximum voltage is shown to be always
located closer to the end of the feeders (in red).
Crucially, as the results show, the proposed HC Estimation
Model was able to provide an adequate HC estimation of this
LV network from as early as 20% of PV penetration. For
example, at 20% penetration, the HC estimation model
estimated that voltage violations will appear between 2.4 and
3.1kW of diversified exports (see red circle), which was indeed
capturing the actual HC of 2.52kW diversified exports at 60%
ed
of PV penetration (see red circle at 60% penetration).
3.4. Results – Performance of all LV Networks
To understand the overall performance of the proposed
methodology, the average accuracy error of the estimated HC
is calculated for each penetration level and for all LV networks
pt
(total of 41 out of 79) that experienced voltage violations.
Moreover, for each penetration level, the percentage of LV
networks for which the HC estimation range (i.e., prediction
limits) successfully covered the HC (calculated using smart
meter data) and the first voltage violation, are provided. In
ce
general, the average accuracy error appears to be higher for
low penetration levels and reduces with higher penetrations.
Overall, it was found that the proposed methodology can
provide meaningful estimations from as early as 30% of PV
penetration. More specifically, at 30% penetration, the actual
HC for 81% of the LV networks was captured by the proposed
Ac
methodology estimation range, while the same number
increased to 83% and 86% for 40 and 50% PV penetrations,
respectively. More importantly, a very similar performance is
observed for the case of first voltage violation, which shows
that the proposed methodology can also cover potential
outliers (i.e., worst-case scenario).
4. Conclusions
This paper presents a smart meter data-driven analytical
methodology proposed to quickly estimate the Hosting
Capacity of LV networks without the need of complex and
detailed network studies or the adoption of generic
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assumptions. The proposed methodology adopts a simple -yet
practical- univariate regression model to estimate the average
(diversified) active power per customer of a given LV network
that can lead to voltages outside the upper statutory limit. This
value can, in turn, be used to calculate the additional PV
capacity that can be hosted by the LV network.
The performance of the proposed methodology is assessed on
a real Australian MV-LV feeder considering realistic smart
meter data from a 5-year horizon with progressive PV
penetrations. For the latter, actual anonymized demand and
irradiance profiles were used to run unbalanced, time-series
power flows for multiple days to extract customer voltages.
Findings show that the proposed analytical technique provides
adequate estimations of PV hosting capacity, making it a faster
and simpler alternative to model-based approaches.
Ultimately, such data-driven approaches can speed up PV
connection requests, hence accelerate the transition towards a
low-carbon energy future.
5. Acknowledgments
The work presented in this paper is part of the project
Advanced Planning of PV-Rich Distribution Networks funded
by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency (ARENA)
Advancing Renewables Program and led by The University of
Melbourne in collaboration with AusNet Services. The views
expressed herein are not necessarily the views of the
Australian Government, and the Australian Government does
not accept responsibility for any information or advice
contained herein.
6. References
[1] M. M. Haque and P. Wolfs, "A review of high PV
penetrations in LV distribution networks: Present status,
impacts and mitigation measures," Renewable and
Sustainable Energy Reviews, vol. 62, pp. 1195-1208
[2] A. Navarro-Espinosa and L. F. Ochoa, "Probabilistic
Impact Assessment of Low Carbon Technologies in LV
Distribution Systems," IEEE Transactions on Power
Systems, vol. 31, no. 3, pp. 2192-2203, 2016, doi:
10.1109/TPWRS.2015.2448663.
[3] A. T. Procopiou and L. F. Ochoa, "Deliverable 3 Analysis
of Network Impacts due to Solar PV," Solar PV
Penetration and HV-LV Network ImpactsAustralia:
AusNet Services, 2018, p. 28.
[4] A. T. Procopiou and L. F. Ochoa, "Deliverable 1 HV-LV
modelling of selected HV feeders," Advanced Planning of
PV-Rich Distribution Networks: AusNet Services, 2019