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Global CLT industry in 2020: Growth beyond the Alpine Region

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 Proceedings of the 63rd International Convention of
Society of Wood Science and Technology
July 12-17, 2020 – Virtual Conference

Global CLT industry in 2020: Growth beyond the

Alpine Region
Lech Muszynski1* – Pipiet Larasatie1 – Jose Erlin Martinez Guerrero1
– Raquel Albee1 – Eric N. Hansen1
1
Professor, Graduate Student, Graduate Student, Graduate Student,
Professor
Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, USA
* Corresponding author
lech.muszynski@oregonstate.edu, pipiet.larasatie@oregonstate.edu,
jose.guerrero@oregonstate.edu, Raquel.albee@oregonstate.edu,
eric.hansen@oregonstate.edu

Abstract
At the threshold of 2020, the cross-laminated timber (CLT) industry continues its
incredible growth across the globe. The total output of the industry in 2020 is projected to
reach 2 million cubic meters. The only continent where no new CLT plants come on line
or are at least planned in 2020 is Antarctica. Although many new CLT lines were recently
deployed outside of the Alpine region from where the industry evolved, Alpine countries
still account for over 70% the output volume and nearly 62% of the annual per-shift
capacity. And yet, after more than 25 years of CLT technology development, the industry
still feels young and no less intriguing. The goal of this presentation is to provide updated
insights into the global CLT industry structure, output potential, production profile,
internal diversity, competitiveness, innovativeness, and perceived barriers to further
expansion, including the unknown effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The presentation
is based on two global CLT industry surveys, 46 plant tours, and supplemental
information from secondary sources. These results are intended to provide insights for
potential entrants and stakeholders into the CLT manufacturing sector, including
businesses along its extensive supply chain.

Key words: cross-laminated timber, CLT, manufacturing, global industry

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Introduction
Organic development of the global CLT industry over the last 25 years has produced
substantial diversity in manufacturing processes, levels of automation, scales of
operation, products and services options as well as in market strategies. The development
has not followed typical commodity-oriented forest products industry models and it is
difficult to provide an adequate precedent.
The purpose of this presentation is to provide an insight into the global CLT industry, its
basic production characteristics, and business models. This publication is building on the
first of its kind review of the global CLT industry published in 2017 (Muszynski et al.
2017).
Existing global CLT operations provide a living laboratory that provides understanding
of both the current state-of-the-art as well as the trajectory and future development of the
CLT industry. Especially important are insights for how newly emerging markets may
develop.
Methodology
The second iteration of the global CLT industry survey presented in this paper has built
on the experience of the first survey (Muszynski et al. 2017), with an improved
methodology and a focus on the emerging CLT operations outside the Alpine cluster, and
on dynamics in the industry’s vital metrics.
Three major sources of information were considered: 1) an online survey launched in
winter 2019 (Albee 2019); 2) targeted site tours of CLT manufacturing lines performed in
the USA, Japan, Australia, China, New Zealand, France, Germany, Norway, Sweden,
Finland, and Estonia; and 3) review of trade journals tracking the development of the
CLT industry (mainly within the Alpine Europe and Czechia).
The online survey was sent to 66 active CLT and similar mass-timber panel (MTP)
manufacturers, that is all that could be identified at that the beginning of 2019, of which
12 companies responded (response rate 18.2%). In addition, 29 site tours targeting CLT
and other MTP manufacturers, as well as MTP hardware manufacturers were completed
in 24 months between winter 2017 and fall 2019. In both forms of communication, the
item non-response is somewhat problematic with data in this study since not all
respondents were willing to answer all questions in electronic surveys or in scripted
interviews. Also, there are operations that we were unable to develop any reliable data
about, beyond the fact that they exist.
Wherever possible, the data obtained from different sources were verified against each
other. Overlaps and gaps in the coverage of these sources were carefully resolved using
the “latest data point” approach, that is using the most recent reliable data from any of the
three sources.
To ensure anonymity, information is presented in aggregate format and when discussing
regional differences, the data is parsed by large regions defined in a way to avoid
exposing information from a single manufacturer (Figure 1). One exception is the plant
located in South Africa, which agreed to share related information openly (Smily 2019).

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Figure 1: CLT producing regions.

One of the methodological difficulties in reporting the potential of a non-commodity,
custom-project driven industry is that the annual output is not necessarily the best tool for
gauging its potential. For many metrics the annual per-shift capacity of production lines
was selected as a more representative context than the total annual output.

Major findings
Ownership of the CLT plants varies from family enterprises to international holdings.
Press types and sizes vary greatly (there is no size standard for CLT panels). Most CLT
companies show some level of vertical integration within their complex value chains.
The scales of operation and the level of automation vary greatly. Annual volumes of
production of CLT plants across the globe varied from less than 500 m3 to over
125,000 m3 (Figure 2a), while the annual per-shift capacities varied from less than 500
m3 to 110,000 m3 (Figure 2b). However, over the past three years, an increasing number
of new CLT plants opt for specialized off-the-shelf equipment solutions, characterized by
high capacity, high level of automation and an option for full integration of entire lines.
The comparison of these two graphs indicates that not all companies utilize their
production capacity to the same degree. This particularly applies to a number of high
capacity plants launched in 2019 but not reaching their full production potential in the
start-up year.
The comparison of the graphs in Figure 2 indicates that not all companies utilize their
production capacity to the same degree, which is consistent with the non-commodity
character of the industry. In a particular sense, this is also true for a number of high
capacity plants launched in 2019 but not reaching their full production potential in the
start-up year.

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 700 8   700

Thousands
Thousands
 600  600

Annual per‐shift volume  in m3
15 
Annual volume  in m3

 500  500

 400  400
7 
 300 9   300
8 
 200  200
31 
6  9 
 100  100 6 
22 
 ‐  ‐
<= 10000 <= 20000 <= 30000 <= 50000 > 50000 <= 5000 <= 10000 <= 15000 <= 25000 > 25000
Annual output range in m3 Annual per‐shift capacity range in m3

a) b)
Figure 2: Annual production volumes (a) and annual per-shift capacity (b) allocated to CLT lines
representing a range of production capacity scale. Number of production lines in each category
provided above the bars.

Currently, three out of four of all presses installed are fabricated by three specialized
European manufacturers (Figure 3a). Nearly four out of five of all installed CNC centers
we know about are fabricated by three leading European manufacturers (Figure 3b). As a
result, many new production lines launched since 2017 are rather similar. That trend
applies to the oldest and largest CLT companies in Alpine Europe as they upgrade their
lines to meet demand.
Other A
Other/Unknown A
19% 42%
25% 25%

C
20% B
30% C
B
33%
6%

a) b)
Figure 3: Shares of known CLT lines equipped with presses (a) and CNC finishing centers (b)
manufactured by three leading providers of respective equipment category.
Even as some companies operate more than one line under the same roof, few decide to
build another plant in different location and even fewer build new production lines in
foreign markets. This is true even for the major Alpine Region players that are very
successful pursuing projects in foreign markets. An almost proverbial example is the
activity of leading Austrian companies in the Australian market.
One interesting dynamic on the fringe of the CLT industry is the rise of complimentary
“adhesive-free” cross-laminated panel products that use nails, wooden dowels and other

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July 12-17, 2020 – Virtual Conference

alternative panel integration systems. In Europe, there are about 30 licensed

manufacturers of nailed cross laminated panels marketed as MassivHolzMauer or MHM
(MHM 2020) and no less than 10 lines producing panels bonded with wooden dowels
(TechnoWood 2020).
Since the publication of the first global survey (Muszynski et al. 2017), substantial
production capacity has been added outside the core Alpine region of Europe, including a
new plant in South Africa, pilot plant in China, two short lived lines in Indonesia and
feasibility studies conducted in Brazil and Chile. The only continent where no new CLT
plants have come on line or at least planned in 2020 has been Antarctica.
In most countries outside the Alpine Region, growth of the CLT industry has been
encouraged by the governments motivated by the desire to find a stable, economically
viable outlet for substantial volumes of domestic lumber of lesser quality. The incentive
programs used as a tool in these campaigns vary by country in terms of scale, specific
form and duration, and not all are equally successful.

a) b)
Figure 4: Regional distribution of the total global CLT output volume (a) and per-shift capacity (b).…
Annual global output of CLT in 2019 that we can attribute to 60 specific production lines
is about 1.44 million m3. The global annual per-shift capacity in 2019 based on 58 (two
companies reported total output but not per-shift capacities) specific production lines is
about 0.94 million m3. The Alpine region still accounts for over 70% the output volume
(Jauk, 2019) and nearly 62% of the annual per-shift capacity (Figure 4). Considering
known CLT operations for which the produced volumes/capacities are outdated or
currently unavailable, the total 2019 output may be estimated at the level of 1.6-1.8
million m3. Further, considering the number of high-capacity plants that, by pre-
pandemic standards, would likely reach full capacity in 2020, it, it is that by the end of
2020 the global annual output might reach 2.0-2.5 million m3.
Gauging the potential for the capacity of individual regions or countries to grow their
CLT manufacturing market potential is notoriously difficult. This is because of

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July 12-17, 2020 – Virtual Conference

substantial differences that exist between regions in terms of the strength of their
economies, robustness of their construction markets, size and level of sophistication of
their forest products industries, but also the density of population and myriad other
factors that could be considered. Here we use a simple and manageable approach of
creating estimates. However, a very rough estimate may be arrived at by using a set of
substitute gross indicator metrics widely available for individual countries and possible to
summarize for regions. For instance, while GDP per capita may be a readily available
measure of a country's economic output that accounts for the size of its population, it
must be combined with another metric indicative of that country’s access to structural
forest products and its ability to process them for meaningful estimates of CLT industry
potential.
The metrics used in this study included the volume of softwood production (2018 data,
FAO 2020), GDP (2018 data, World Bank 2020), population density (based on 2018
population and area data, FAO 2020), number of CLT lines, annual CLT output volume
in 2019, and CLT per-shift production capacity all summarized by regions. All metrics
except population density are expressed per capita. To facilitate an assessment of the
potential of an individual country or region, One may view the metrics relative to that
reference country or region. In the example presented in Figure 5, the relative metrics
considered in this comparison are listed along the vertical axis, while the regions being
compared are listed along the horizontal axis. Values of individual metrics are reflected
by the area of the bubbles for a given metric and region. In this example, the reference
country of interest is the United States of America. Accordingly, the size of the bubbles
in the first column are the reference unit for other columns.
When metrics are compared visually via Figure 6, it is easy to see that there are no
dramatic differences between the regions in terms of GDP or softwood production per
capita. One somewhat differentiating metric is the population density, substantially
higher for countries included in the Alpine region, which by Holzkurier standards include
Austria, Czechia, Germany, Italy and Switzerland. But even with that distinction, this
relatively small region outweighs all others in terms of number of installed CLT
manufacturing lines (followed by the rest of CLT producing Europe and by the Pacific
region) and has no equal in terms of the total annual CLT output volume or in per-shift
production capacity. These gaps may be interpreted as an indirect indicator of the
potential for regions that seem to be otherwise similar to the Alpine region in other gross
metrics scaled per capita.
With due respect to the gross simplifications of this approach, it is possible to cautiously
conclude that in order to match the level of saturation seen in the Alpine Europe, the US
market should be able to support as many as 70 CLT production lines of various sizes
(currently 5) and 16-fold increase of the production output volume from the level seen at
the threshold of 2020 (117 thousand m3/year). These numbers may be scaled down to 40
production lines and 4x increase in production volumes if the CLT producing countries in
other parts of Europe are considered as a model.

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Softwood prod. vol. per capita

GDP per capita

Population density

# of CLT lines per capita

CLT output volume per capita

CLT output capacity (per shift) pet capita

USA N America EU Alpine EU Other Pacific S Africa

Figure 5: A comparison of selected socio-economic metrics scaled by population of CLT producing

regions with per-capita CLT production in 2019 for each (combined sources).
Overall, at the threshold of 2020s the CLT industry continued its exponential growth across
the globe. However, that upbeat picture could not possibly have predicted the pandemic
triggering tectonic shifts in global economies.
The big question today is how does the pandemic impact the CLT industry as-we-speak
and what are the perspectives of CLT players regarding the post-pandemic new normal.
The industry has a substantial degree of intrinsic flexibility and is oriented towards
custom-made products serving premium construction projects. Myriad questions arise
from our current context:

What will be a winning strategy in the post-pandemic economy?

Will the industry’s internal diversity provide sufficient resilience to weather the changes?
Will the high level of automation be an advantage in the post-pandemic new normal?
Will all elements of the complex supply chain of the industry be equally resilient?
How will the post-pandemic world affect the export prospects of CLT companies that
typically export to overseas markets?
Will public enchantment/enthusiasm last?
Finally, with respect to governments, will utilization of low-value local species remain a
priority? Will the industry be perceived as a dispensable luxury or a part of a solution for
the new normal?

The anecdotal evidence based on brief unstructured conversations with the industry leaders
in the US suggests that the CLT industry in the Pacific Northwest is navigating the

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July 12-17, 2020 – Virtual Conference

pandemic relatively well. This sentiment is corroborated by the latest news from Alpine
Europe (Jauk & Guzely 2020).

Summary and Conclusions

Overall, at the threshold of 2020s the CLT industry continued its exponential growth across
the globe. There has been substantial growth in the number of new, high capacity lines in
regions outside Alpine Europe and an increase of production coming out of that region.
After 25 years of development, the industry still feels very young and as exciting as ever.
However, that upbeat picture is clouded by the pandemic triggering tectonic shifts in global
economies and leaving us with more questions and unknowns than answers.

Acknowledgements
This project was funded by USDA ARS program. Additional support: Softwood Export
Council, Linnaeus University, Estonian Forest and Wood Industries Association. The
authors also acknowledge support of Dr. Chris Knowles (OSU), Ms. Tomoko Igarashi and
and Mr. Yuichi Hayashi (American Softwoods, Japan), Ms. Jasmin Rainer and Mr. Günther
Jauk (Holzkurier).

References
Albee R.R. (2019): Global Overview of the Cross-Laminated Timber Industry. MS
thesis. Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR. 114 pp.
Albee R.R., L. Muszyński, E.N. Hansen, C.D. Knowles, P. Larasatie, J.E. Guerrero
(2018): Recent developments in global cross-laminated timber (CLT) market. World
Conference on Timber Engineering, Proceedings of the WCTE 2018, Seoul, Korea,
August 20-24: 6 pp.
FAO (2020): Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations.
http://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data. Access date: 07/03/2020
Jauk G. (2019): Holzkurier (CLT special issue)
Jauk G. & E. Guzely (2020: Corona is not going not stop CLT. Timber-Online,
May/June, 2020. https://www.timber-online.net/wood_products/2020/05/corona-is-not-
going-not-stop-clt.html. Accessed: 10/6/2020
MHM (2020): https://www.massivholzmauer.de/en/about-us/sales-
offices/locations/mhm-producers.html. Accessed: 13/06/2020
Muszyński L., E. Hansen, B.M. S. Fernando, G. Schwarzman, J. Rainer (2017): Insights
into the Global Cross-Laminated Timber Industry. BioProducts Business. 2(8): 77-92
Smily J. (2019): XLam ZA, personal contact. 28/10/2020
TechnoWood (2020): https://www.technowood.ch/downloads/technowood/tw-
portfolio.pdf. Accessed 13/06/2020
World Bank (2020): https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.CD. Access
date: 07/03/2020

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