Belarus at the crossroads, Ukraine and the Kremlin

Today, the top story of the Ukrainian media, of course, is the turbulent events taking place in the
neighboring Belarus after the expected controversial elections. Ukrainians are demonstrating massive
support on the social media for the protesters, who demand Lukashenko to finally give up the power
and leave. The emotional background is intensified by using the analogy of the events on the Ukrainian
Maidan, which forced Yanukovych to escape to Rostov in Russia. Moreover, Putin’s official
congratulations on the results announced by the Belarusian CEC, and his expression of hope for
enhancing progress towards further integration with Moscow – all this seemed to encourage the official
Kyiv to take a clear stand and reaction to the Belarusian processes.

However, such a black-and-white view of the world can be rather demanding, given that any process
taking place in the region will certainly come across a complex game of the Kremlin. It is based on the
extensive experience of the Soviet and later Russian intelligence services, which have long used the so-
called “reflexive control” - the enemy influence by pushing or imposing the necessary solutions. In this
case, the influenced object must be certain that it acts in the most convenient way for himself.

Consideration should be given to the motivation of the participants in today’s processes in Belarus,
distinguishing them, at least for now, from the events of the Ukrainian Maidan: this involves their
attempt to get rid of Lukashenko’s long rule, but there is no strategic view and development program of
Belarus among the protesters. Svitlana Tikhanovska who became a symbol of the protests by accident,
has not put forward such ideas either. This makes the decision of the official Kyiv concerning its clear
position more difficult. However, this does not prevent the Kremlin, by means of its reflexive control,
from “pushing” Ukraine and the West to make the necessary decisions, and Belarus (both the
government and society) from evaluating these decisions in order to use them in its advantage.

We can notice how Lukashenko’s position has changed before and after the elections. If a few days
before the election day the official discourse dealt with the high-profile case of the Wagner fighters’
detention and statements that Moscow made attempts to shake up the situation in Belarus, his last
interview after the mass protests concerned not only Russia, but also Ukraine, Poland, the Czech
Republic, from where “they are trying to orchestrate the riots”. Thus, Ukraine is already given the
artificially designed image of an external player who seems to be trying to shake up the internal
situation in Belarus. This canvas also includes the messages spread by Russian propaganda resources
and the so-called “intelligence” on the uncontrolled territory of Donbass, headed by the Russian special
services officers. They are about the readiness of the Ukrainian right-wing organizations to be sent to
support Belarusian protesters with “financing of George Soros and the former President of Ukraine
Petro Poroshenko”.

Thus, the focus of the processes taking place in Belarus is significantly changing. From the situation
when it was possible to witness Russian interference with Belarusian internal affairs and attempts to
influence the independent decision of the Belarusians concerning their country’s destiny, in the Russian
narrative Belarus becomes the combat zone between Russia and the West. At the same time, Ukraine
will play the role of a “Western puppet”, which also seems to have been actively involved into the
internal processes of Belarus, using the same methods that Russia is being accused of (then how are the
supposed Ukrainian radicals, who stir up the chaos inside Belarus, better than the detained Wagner
militants?).

Today, Belarus is at the crossroads depending on how the political crisis will turn out in the future, but
Ukraine should be aware of the fact that with the variability of scenarios, it is also given the role in the
Kremlin’s complex game. And in order not to fall into the trap, we must try to recognize the Russian plan
and counteract it.