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To cite this article: Hasan Ersel & Fatih Özatay (2008) Fiscal Dominance and Inflation Targeting:
Lessons from Turkey, Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, 44:6, 38-51, DOI: 10.2753/
REE1540-496X440603
Abstract: In the aftermath of the 2000–2001 crisis in Turkey, the banking sector was in
turbulence, requiring immediate action. The rescue operation significantly increased the public
debt ratio with respect to gross domestic product. At the beginning of 2002, the central bank
of Turkey announced that it was going to implement an implicit inflation-targeting regime. The
fiscal dominance caused by the high debt ratio severely constrained the conduct of monetary
policy. Other obstacles to the conduct of monetary policy included a high level of exchange
rate pass-through, inflation inertia, and a weak banking sector. This paper offers an account
of the monetary policy experience of Turkey in the postcrisis period and provides lessons for
policymakers in other emerging markets.
Key words: fiscal dominance, financial sector, exchange rate pass-through, inflation inertia,
inflation targeting.
In mid-May 2001, just three months after the February crisis, Turkey started to implement
a new economic program. One of the program’s major integral parts was an overhaul of the
failing banking system. The rescue program for the banking sector, inevitably, increased the
public debt–to–gross domestic product (GDP) ratio sharply. Therefore, other targets of the
program—macroeconomic discipline and an ambitious agenda for structural reforms—had
to be achieved under severe fiscal dominance. This fiscal dominance, caused by high public
debt, was the main challenge that monetary authorities faced in the postcrisis period. There
were other challenges as well: high pass-through, backward-looking pricing, and a weak bank-
ing sector. Such challenges render the Turkish monetary policy experience in the postcrisis
period a rather interesting one to analyze and draw lessons from.
This paper offers an account of the monetary policy experience of Turkey,1 focusing on
the challenges faced by monetary policy in the aftermath of the crisis. The implicit inflation
targeting and the outcome are analyzed, as well as the decision to shift to formal inflation
targeting at the beginning of 2006 and the experience up to now.
Hasan Ersel (hasanersel@sabanciuniv.edu) teaches at the Sabanci University, Istanbul, Turkey, and
is a member of the Advisory Council of TEPAV, Ankara, Turkey. Fatih Özatay (fatih.ozatay@etu
.edu.tr) teaches at the TOBB University of Economics and Technology, Department of Economics,
Ankara, Turkey, and is director of the Economic Policy Research Institute of TEPAV, Ankara, Turkey.
This work has benefited from a grant given by the Economic Research Forum. The contents and recom-
mendations do not necessarily reflect the views of the Economic Research Forum.
Emerging Markets Finance & Trade / November–December 2008, Vol. 44, No. 6, pp. 38–51.
Copyright © 2008 M.E. Sharpe, Inc. All rights reserved.
1540-496X/2008 $9.50 + 0.00.
DOI 10.2753/REE1540-496X440603
November–December 2008 39
on the ‘future inflation’ details of which are given below. In other words, this is an ‘implicit
inflation targeting.’ When the conditions are favorable we will openly switch to official infla-
tion targeting” (CBT 2005). What was the reason behind using two nominal anchors? Why
implicit rather than formal inflation targeting? We discuss these issues below.
Fiscal Dominance
The periods following recent currency crises have generally witnessed a hike in public debt.
Table 1 documents this fact for Turkey. As Sargent and Wallace (1981) point out, when pub-
lic debt is high and the real rate of return on government securities exceeds the economy’s
Table 1. Selected macroeconomic indicators: 2001:03–2006:12 (percent)
Current
Growth Expected Consumer Interest Public debt account Budget Unemployment
rate1 inflation2 inflation1 rate3 stock/GDP4 deficit/GDP4 deficit/GDP rate
Sources: Central Bank, Turkish Statistics Institute, Treasury, State Planning Organization.
Notes: 1 Percentage change with respect to the same period of the previous year. 2 Expectations Survey of the Central Bank, expected year-end consumer price inflation.
3
Average compounded interest rate realized in Treasury auctions, weighted by net sales. 4 Quarterly ratios are calculated by using the sum of the current and last three
quarters of GDP.
November–December 2008 41
growth rate, tightening monetary policy by reducing the growth rate of money can result in
higher rather than lower inflation. Under these conditions, a contractionary monetary policy
initially lowers seigniorage revenue and requires that additional debt be issued; an increase
in the deficit and the following rise in the stock of debt eventually requires an increase in
seigniorage. This situation has been dubbed as “fiscal dominance of monetary policy.”
Why should an inflation-targeting central bank be afraid of high public debt? The logic
behind such a fear is as follows: An inflation-targeting central bank should respond to an
increase in the probability of an upsurge in future inflation by raising its policy rate. If, in a
highly indebted economy, the pass-through effect is significant, developments that increase
concerns about debt sustainability not only increase interest rates, but also weaken the do-
mestic currency. An increase in the probability of debt repudiation, on the one hand, would
cause new subscribers to ask for higher rates to compensate for an increase in default risk.
On the other hand, demand for foreign currency–denominated assets would increase; hence,
the domestic currency would weaken. Consequently, a central bank that raises its policy
rate in response to a potential rise in inflation due to a weakening currency faces two related
problems. First, a rise in its overnight rate could signal to the markets that things are not go-
ing in the right direction, which obviously could raise the perceived default risk, and hence,
the real interest rate and exchange rate. Second, both indirectly through the first effect and
directly by raising the cost of borrowing, such a response in policy could increase the debt
burden of the treasury and jeopardize debt sustainability. The domestic currency would de-
preciate in such circumstances, which is inflationary if the pass-through effect is significant.
This means that the plan to increase the short-term interest rate to cope with inflationary
pressures would backfire.
A possible counterargument is that a central bank that does its job by raising interest rates is
credible, and such a credible policy decision more than offsets the negative effects on inflation
stated above. Analyzing which argument is correct is not an issue that this paper addresses.
However, the probability that raising interest rates could backfire in such circumstances cannot
be disregarded immediately. Given this probability, the effectiveness of inflation targeting in
such economies is asymmetric: Cutting policy rates does not pose such problems—provided
that such a cut is warranted by the inflation outlook—whereas raising them does.2
Backward-Looking Pricing
It is well known that the practice of indexing nominal contracts to past inflation is one of
the most important obstacles to disinflation programs. The simple reason is that, under such
schemes, one observes an important amount of inertia in the behavior of inflation. This is
why Israel in 1985 and Mexico in 1989 opted for a heterodox stabilization program, in which
wage and price changes are linked to targeted inflation rather than past inflation. Even in the
absence of such formal indexation mechanisms, if economic agents consider past inflation
data in taking economic decisions (if they are backward looking), a similar inertia in infla-
tion can arise. Kara et al. (2007) show that the effect of such implicit indexation mechanisms
on the evolution of the inflation rate in Turkey in the periods preceding the 2001 crisis was
considerable.
High Pass-Through
By “high pass-through” it is generally meant that one of the most important determinants of
the future path of inflation is the rate of change of the exchange rate. This occurs first through
the effect of import prices on costs, second through shaping inflationary expectations, and
42 Emerging Markets Finance & Trade
third through various indexation mechanisms.3 In a small, open, and emerging economy, a
significant change in the direction of capital flows not stemming from country policies can
affect the exchange rate, and hence, the inflation rate. Provided that such a shock persists for
some time, inflation targets can be missed. Kara and Ög¬ünç (2008, this issue) and Kara et
al. (2007) estimate the exchange rate pass-through effect in Turkey. They show that for the
period 1994–2001, pass-through was quick—completed in six months—and large.
Deposit banks 49 46 40 36 35 34 33
State-owned banks 3 3 3 3 3 3 3
Private banks 28 22 20 18 18 17 14
Foreign banks 18 15 15 13 13 13 15
SDIF*-controlled banks 11 6 2 2 1 1 1
Development and
investment banks 15 15 14 14 13 13 13
two banks. The authorities not only reduced the number of SDIF banks, but also scaled down
their activities (Table 2).
The second problem that the authorities had to deal with was the weakness of the banking
system. The 2001 crisis and the developments that led to it negatively affected the banks’
financial structure and profitability. Being aware of the vitally important role of the banking
system in the future growth path of the Turkish economy, the authorities gave priority to
securing its safety and soundness. First, they reduced the foreign exchange risks of banks by
allowing them to substitute their lira-denominated government bonds with foreign exchange–
denominated bonds. Second, they strengthened their capital base by asking banks to satisfy
strictly the minimum capital adequacy ratio of 8 percent by raising capital from their sharehold-
ers. Third, they launched a financial restructuring program for nonfinancial corporations that
were distressed but viable, to prevent the incidence of nonperforming loans from rising.
The third pillar of the program was establishing the conditions for a sound functioning
banking system by securing the autonomy of the supervisory authority, enhancing its technical
capabilities, and adopting international (EU) standards in banking legislation.
As Table 3 shows, the 2001 crisis adversely affected the Turkish banking system. Its
size, relative to the country’s gross national product (GNP), sharply declined, coupled with
a similar decline in the credit-to-GNP ratio. The flight from credit phenomenon ended in
2004, when the economy started to exhibit rather strong growth performance and the bank-
ing system expanded.
Economic Program
Since the program began, there has been substantial progress in structural reforms. Just after
the crisis, the CBT gained instrument independence. Along with the above-mentioned restruc-
turing of the financial sector, the public sector has also been undergoing reforms. Redundant
positions—more than 10 percent of total state economic enterprises’ employment—were
eliminated. A hiring limit was implemented. The agricultural support system was redesigned.
Independent regulatory and supervisory agencies were formed. Steps were taken to enhance
transparency, budget discipline, and accountability in the public sector. Various laws were
enacted to improve the investment environment.
Throughout the postcrisis period, the primary budget surplus-to-GNP ratio targets were
rather ambitious. Despite a temporary deviation due to political chaos in the second half of
2002, the realizations were almost in line with the targets: 5.5 percent in 2001, 4.1 percent
in 2002, 6.3 percent in 2003, 6.5 percent in 2004, and 6.4 percent in 2005 versus a 6.5 per-
cent target. Simultaneously, the public sector reduced its deficit to 0.6 percent of GDP at the
end of the second quarter of 2006, down from 15.1 percent of GDP in 2001. Additionally,
the risk exposure of public debt stock had decreased through successful debt management
policy: The share of foreign exchange–denominated (or indexed) debt in total public debt
had also been reduced considerably. Similarly, the floating rate part of domestic debt stock
had shrunk significantly.
One of the most important elements of the program that was implemented after the crisis
was the floating exchange rate system. This regime was one of the necessary conditions for
the smooth operation of the implicit inflation targeting. The CBT’s exchange rate policy was
made more transparent at the beginning of 2002. The CBT stressed that it would not interfere
with the level or trend of the exchange rate. It also announced that it could intervene in case
of excess volatility. Based on this main principle, however, the CBT also pledged to limit
the incidence of such intervention. In addition, at the beginning of 2002, the CBT explicitly
instructed the markets that, first, on condition of strict implementation of the program and
in the absence of large external shocks, the dollarization process would lose its importance,
eventually leading to reverse dollarization. Second, favorable balance-of-payments conditions
would probably arise. Third, although the exchange rate regime was floating, the level of
foreign exchange reserves was important for three main reasons: Turkey had debt repayments
forthcoming to the IMF; international investors especially emphasized the level of reserves;
and the CBT wanted to clear its balance sheet of some types of foreign exchange liabilities,
such as deposits of workers abroad. Fourth, given the importance of the level of reserves (in
this case, regardless of the exchange rate system), provided that at least one of the conditions
stated in the first two items materialized, it was going to build up reserves through rule-based,
transparent, and preannounced purchase auctions.
November–December 2008 45
All in all, during the recovery phase, the declining profitability of the Turkish banking sys-
tem,7 coupled with the increased reliance of the private sector (including banks) on financing
themselves from external sources, adversely affected the efficiency of the monetary policy.
Outcome
At the end of 2001, the program started to show its strength; inflation expectations have
followed a downward trend, the inflation rate declined to one-digit levels from the high two-
digit levels of the 1990s, and the public debt-to-GDP ratio has been significantly reduced.
The Turkish economy first started to recover and then to grow a considerable amount despite
the extremely tight fiscal policy. There is no doubt that this phenomenon is not unique to
Turkey; it was observed in some other countries in the 1980s, leading to the development of
expansionary fiscal contractions, as noted in the economic literature (Table 1).8 As Akıncı
et al. (2005) document, dollarization has started to decline. This created an opportunity for
the CBT to increase its reserves through foreign exchange purchase auctions amounting to
almost $33 billion.
November–December 2008 47
However, there were temporary deviations from the positive main trend. As discussed above,
despite sound policies and reforms, economies that have inherited a host of problems due to
imprudent past policies need a considerable period of time to overcome these problems. During
this period, such economies remain vulnerable to shifts in market sentiment due to changes
in international and domestic risk factors. Even a brief glance at the evolution of secondary
market interest rates, the exchange rate, and Eurobond spreads reveals this fact. Regarding
the interest rate and spread, though the main trend is downward, there were sharp increases
in both variables from time to time. A similar phenomenon applies for the exchange rate.
Çulha et al. (2007) analyze the relative effects of macroeconomic news (surprises in fun-
damentals), U.S. interest rates, and domestic political-, EU-, and IMF-related news releases
on secondary market interest rates in Turkey from May 2001 to December 2002 using daily
data. They have shown that macroeconomic fundamentals (credit ratings and central bank
overnight changes) were among the determinants in changing interest rates. However, both
positive and negative political news (not all kinds of news, but news related to fulfilling con-
ditions of the IMF program), adverse EU-related news, and IMF announcements also had
significant influence on these rates. Çulha et al. (2006) note a similar finding for the evolution
of Emerging Markets Bond Index (EMBI) spreads for the May 2001–December 2004 period.
These findings align with our interpretation of developments in the postcrisis period.
However, without a slippage in the conduct of fiscal discipline and discontinuation of
structural reforms, the effects of external shocks proved to be temporary: The first external
shock was the Iraq war in 2003, during which real interest rates jumped and the real value
of the lira dropped significantly. The second shock was the series of U.S. Federal Reserve
(Fed) announcements and the following interpretations of a possible aggressive tightening
during the first half of 2004. The terrorist bombing attacks in Istanbul reinforced the negative
effect of the Fed announcements. Despite these shocks, the main macroeconomic indicators
stayed on the right track, which can be interpreted as evidence of the increased resilience of
the Turkish economy.
Given the positive main economic trend, the sharp decline in the debt-to-GDP ratio, and
the increased resilience of the Turkish economy, monetary authorities could have shifted
48 Emerging Markets Finance & Trade
to formal inflation targeting at the beginning of 2005. However, for two main reasons, they
continued with the implicit inflation targeting in 2002. First, the statistics institute started
to publish a new consumer index series. This was seen as a great obstacle to forecast infla-
tion and communicate with the public. Second, at the beginning of 2005, a new currency
was introduced by dropping six zeros from the lira, contributing to the CBT’s reluctance for
formal inflation targeting. There also were still some concerns—albeit diminishing ones—
about fiscal dominance.
sense due to factors beyond the control of monetary policy. However, temporary shocks could
change inflation forecasts rather than inflation targets.
In the second quarter of 2006, due to both turbulence in international markets stemming
from rising international interest rates and decreasing risk appetite of foreign investors and
increasing political tensions in Turkey, the domestic currency depreciated sharply; second-
ary market rates and Turkey’s credit risk moved upward. Rising exchange rates and sharp
increases in petroleum prices caused inflation to rise. Buoyant domestic demand played a
role in this outcome as well. Based on these developments, a significant deterioration in
inflation expectations is observed (Table 3). These negative developments forced the CBT
to raise its policy rate.
The May–June 2006 turbulence in the financial markets and its effect on banks’ financial
statements indicates that the Turkish financial system has not fully overcome its instability
problem. In the short run, this implies that the central bank is compelled to implement its
monetary policy; it cannot, and should not, implement monetary policy without accounting
for the constraints that the banking system imposes. In a longer-run perspective, the present
state of the Turkish banking system indicates the need for further strengthening of Turkish
banking, in terms of injecting capital and possibly increasing average scale.
Conclusion
Even programs based on sound macroeconomic fundamentals in economies with an inherited
high public debt stock are prone to risks stemming from macroeconomic misbehavior in the
past. Shocks that increase concerns about the continuation of the current macroeconomic
framework can push such economies to a bad equilibrium, in which there is high inflation,
high real interest rates, and sharp depreciation, from a good equilibrium with low inflation,
low real interest rates, and a stable currency. The possibility of multiple equilibria limits the
efficiency of inflation targeting in such economies.
The Turkish experience of inflation targeting once again shows that choosing the right time
for a radical change in the conduct of monetary policy—that is, switching to formal inflation
targeting—is crucial for the success of the new regime. However, being too perfectionist in
this regard can be counterproductive, as there is never truly a right time to implement a new
regime; there will be always some elements missing. That said, one should seek to balance
these missing elements against the elements ready to use. The period of implicit inflation
targeting in Turkey indicated that the coordination of fiscal and monetary policies is essential
to obtaining the desired results, and that the correct timing for implementing new policy is
strongly determined by the degree of fiscal dominance.
Notes
1. For a different account of this experience, see Kara (2006).
2. The model presented in Blanchard (2005) shows under what conditions and how inflation targeting
can have adverse effects. Blanchard further argues that Brazil found itself in such a situation in 2002 and
2003. Studying the recent experience of Brazil, Favero and Giavazzi (2005) show how the effectiveness
of monetary policy depends on the fiscal policy regime in the same period. Aktas* et al. (2005) derived a
model-based default risk series for Turkey during the period 1999–2003 by introducing an unobserved
components model with time-varying parameters. They found that the arguments of Blanchard (2005)
and Favero and Giavazzi (2005) are also valid for Turkey.
3. It should also be pointed out that Turkey can be considered as an endogenously dollarized
economy, a property that feeds pass-through indirectly.
4. One may imagine that banks may not be able to understand the signals given by the central
bank. Such a situation was highly unlikely in the case of Turkey. The CBT had a long experience
50 Emerging Markets Finance & Trade
of communicating with the banking community. Therefore, despite the existence of problems of the
sufficiency of the information thus revealed, central bank language was not alien to the banking com-
munity. On the other hand, as Ersel (2002) demonstrates, banks were capable of taking macroeconomic
information into account in forming their major managerial decisions.
5. This section is based on Ersel (2004). For a discussion of the restructuring of the banking
system in Turkey, see also Özatay and Sak (2002) and Pazarbas*ıog¬lu (2005).
6. Here we use the Turkish component of J.P. Morgan’s EMBI+.
7. See Stiglitz and Greenwald (2003, Chapter 8) for a discussion of the banking system–related
factors that influence the efficiency of monetary policy.
8. See, e.g., Giavazzi et al. (2000) for the experience in industrial and developing countries and
Özatay (2007) for the Turkish experience.
9. The following is taken from the CBT (2005):
In time, harmonization with the floating exchange rate regime increased and considerable progress was made
in the formation of a suitable environment for the transition to an inflation targeting regime: all inflation
target were met, confidence was heightened and inflation expectations converged with the targets. Today
inflation is at its lowest in thirty years. While debates on the sustainability of public debt stock used to be
at the top of the economic agenda in the past, this is no longer the case. Worries pertaining to the continuity
of fiscal discipline have eased considerably. Financial markets started to become deeper, and the financial
sector has become less fragile.
Progress made towards economic stability started the reverse-dollarization process, and although it was
interrupted from time to time and more progress is necessary, the weight of Turkish lira denominated
investments began to increase in portfolio preferences.
Following the agreement with the IMF, the announcement of the medium-term program and the start of
the negotiation process with the EU for full membership, the predictability of fundamental macroeconomic
variables further increased.
During the period 2001–5, very significant steps were taken pertaining to the improvement of the insti-
tutional infrastructure of monetary policy. . . . The Central Bank rendered its institutional framework more
efficient, defined its communications policy in a more transparent way, expanded its information set and
improved its inflation forecast methods. Besides these factors, significant progress was made during this
time in the area of Central Bank independence, pertaining to its practice.
All these developments pointed to the fact that the pre-conditions of the inflation targeting regime had,
to a large extent, been met and the appropriate time was approaching.
10. The general framework of the inflation-targeting regime was made public on December 5,
2005. This section heavily draws on that announcement (CBT 2005).
11. Note that in the implicit inflation-targeting period, the year-end inflation rates were always
realized below the targets. The CBT tolerated this development to increase perceptions that the dis-
inflation process would be persistent.
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