Article Economy and Space

Environment and Planning A:

Economy and Space
State maneuver in the 2018, Vol. 50(8) 1580–1601
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A political geography of DOI: 10.1177/0308518X18781089
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contextualized agency

Colin Flint
Utah State University, USA

Raymond Dezzani
University of Idaho, USA

Abstract
The purpose of this paper is to elucidate a theoretical perspective and outline an analytical
framework for state maneuver in the hierarchical world-economy that incorporates the idea
of context with structural imperatives. Maneuver is the agency of states within conjunctures of
structural imperatives and spatial settings of inter-state alliances and established cultural under-
standings and historic relations. The hierarchy of the capitalist world-economy is conceptualized
as an emergent structure, one that emerges from competition for scarce resources. The resour-
ces are economic attributes defined by the process of capital accumulation, political attributes
emanating from the imperative of state territorialization, and the agglomeration of these attrib-
utes in spatial formations. The structure is emergent from the actions of states that create these
spatial formations, but transformation is limited given structural constraints. States maneuver can
be modeled as Markov transition probabilities decomposable as logits for covariate analysis.

Keywords
World-systems analysis, maneuver, political geography, emergent structure, Markov transi-
tion modeling

Corresponding author:
Colin Flint, Utah State University, 0725 Old Main Hill, Logan, UT 84322-1400, USA.
Email: colin.flint@usu.edu
Flint and Dezzani 1581

Global growth remains moderate, with uneven prospects across the main countries and
regions. . . Relative to last year, the outlook for advanced economies is improving, while
growth in emerging market and developing economies is projected to be lower, primarily reflect-
ing weaker prospects for some large emerging market economies and oil-exporting countries.1

The International Monetary Fund

So far the beginning steps of our young innovators are promising. Their initiative is encourag-
ing. We would definitely want them contributing to the development of our country in ways we
are most certain will be glorious.2

Eritrean Ministry of Information

Economic policymakers operate in an optimistic mindset that believes that something called
“development” is desirable and achievable. Despite much evidence to the contrary, the basic
assumptions of developmentalism drive the actions of state elites and managers of the global
economy, such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund. The ontology of
developmentalism is one of rational states having the ability to make innovative policies in a
global level-playing field that, if only they make the right choices, would allow them
to achieve rates of economic growth and “develop” (Taylor, 1989). Within this framework
economists search for “convergence,” or an expected single mean rate of economic
well-being and capability based on an idealized conception of a “modern” or “developed”
economy (Barro and Sala-I-Marin, 1991, 1992; Islam, 2003). Equality in growth and wealth,
measured by the current standards of the richest countries is assumed to be achievable by all.
Hence, the IMF reports the economic outlook of countries as a digression from an expected
norm of uniform growth, and the government of Eritrea puts its faith in a “glorious” future.
Our contribution is to identify and propose a means of modeling the politics of state
agency as a contextualized form of behavior. The world-systems identification of economic
processes operating at the scale of the capitalist world-economy conceptualizes the politics
of state decision making as a topological model, or the attempt to “accentuate or ameliorate
the general world economic climate in which it operates” (Taylor, 1994: 120). This is the idea
of maneuver that we develop as a conceptualization of the prospects of states in the capitalist
world-economy. We believe this is a more realistic conceptualization than the tenets of
developmentalism (Taylor, 1994).
Maneuver is the expression of the constrained agency of states within an overarching
structure. For a specific agent in a particular setting at a particular time, the options avail-
able are limited. The presence of economic structures creates a certain path-dependence for
actors as the impact of historical patterns of interactions creates the setting for contempo-
rary decisions. Hence, the actions of states should be seen as a restricted rational choice,
by which we mean actors evaluate their situation to the best of their knowledge and try
to improve their position; though structural constraints may negate their efforts or create
unintended outcomes. More appropriately, from our geographic perspective, we argue that
constrained agency should be conceptualized as contextualized rational choice. Using a
political geography perspective on the world-systems approach, maneuver emphasizes the
constraining contexts created within hierarchical structure and geographic setting (Arrighi,
1994: 1–2; Taylor, 1992a, 1994; Wallerstein, 1979: 66–94; Wallerstein, 1983: 13–43).
Hierarchy is formed through the competition for, and distribution of scarce resources.3
As a neo-Marxist approach, world-systems analysis defines economic resources as providing
the foundation and purpose for political action. Using hierarchy and resources through
1582 Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 50(8)

world-systems analysis provides a means for identifying the rules and goals of agency, the
types of contexts that are formed, and the possibility for action within particular contexts; in
other words, maneuver.
Our definition of maneuver requires a political geographic understanding of structure
and context in framing the actions of states. We eschew structural determinism. Rather,
structure emerges from stochastic processes, and in turn partially constrains state agency.
The options for agency are partially determined by the structure of the world-economy,
but the situation of each state is best conceived of as a geographic context formed by the
intersection of a variety of constraints. These constraints are conceptualized as the coming
together of a set of scarce resources that are the basis of the hierarchical structure of the
capitalist world-economy. Within the constraints of particular contexts states evaluate
and attempt to act for their own self-interest, in other words, they maneuver with respect
to the actions of other states and how they perceive their situation and a pathway to
improving it. Empirical operationalization of the components of action and context allow
for modeling of past processes of maneuver, and the prediction of future movement of
states, or lack of it, within the capitalist world-economy.
We recognize that states are not the only actors of note. Firms, cities, social groups, etc.
are all important, and that the process of capital accumulation takes place through
production and exchange through networks of commodity chains that connect regionalized
economic activity (Yeung, 2016). However, the state is the essential political actor in the
capitalist world-economy (Wallerstein, 1984: 3–4). The state is able to use strategies of
territorialization to create pseudo-monopolies and social relations of production and repro-
duction that produces the necessary geography of economic differentiation that is the man-
ifestation of core-periphery hierarchy of the capitalist world-economy (Chase-Dunn, 1989:
23–24; Wallerstein, 1984: 4). By framing the interaction of economic flows and state terri-
torialization as maneuver, we can understand one form of dynamism within the capitalist
world-economy; the ability, or not, of states to capture more core processes within their
borders that, in turn, maintains the unequal structure of the system. Core processes are high
value-added, high profit economic activities associated with high consumption; peripheral
processes are the opposite (Flint and Taylor, 2011: 26). We believe that the relative success
of states in this endeavor can only be fully understood and modeled if we identify the role of
structural context.

Why contextualized agency?

State maneuver has been analyzed as ascent through the three-tier hierarchy of the world-
economy through change in domestic priorities (Shin and Ciccantell, 2009), a political-
economic process that must be situated within the historical context of long waves and
the structural relations of dependence (Makki, 2015). Situating domestic policies aimed at
development within structural contexts requires a relational approach, in which the policies
and trajectory of one country are directly related to the fortunes of other countries
(Schwartzman, 2015). Hence, rather than beginning with structure, and its implications of
determinism, we begin our argument for the idea of maneuver with a discussion of context
as the setting for agency.
Context is, arguably, the essential component of human geography. It complements
and challenges other social sciences by denying that processes are universal and,
consequently, that relationships between cause and effect are stationary. Contextual effects
(Gregory et al., 2009: 110–111) play a role in defining the possibilities and limits for action.
Flint and Dezzani 1583

Geographical setting, as the product of effect, is an arena of limited possibilities and hence
creates a limited range of future effects or outcomes.
The underlying idea behind different definitions of context is the mutual construction of
space and social relations. Harvey (1982) defined a Marxist approach based on the struc-
tures of capitalism and processes that, in spatial fixes with a particular time-span, limit the
form of social relations, and hence the transformative viability of politics. The agency that
creates spatial fixes is limited, as possibilities of action exist within a broader structural
setting (Harvey, 2000: 16). The key qualification is that the potential for change is limited
and the pace of change is usually slow. Furthermore, what may at the time be seen as
dramatic and conclusive change can, in a longer-term perspective, be seen as a limited
disruption to existing political geographic patterns (Martin and Dennis, 2010).
The world is not completely transformable at any given moment or setting, or within a
particular context – most actions at a given time reinforce existing social relations and
conditions. The many interacting elements of the system means that transformative, and
maintaining, agency is relational in that the actions of one actor may provoke systemic
change which has an impact on the choices available to other actors. The relation is not
deterministic, but it is constrained. Over time the possibilities and constraints of one’s
contextual setting may be understood (if imperfectly), a range of choices identified, and
decisions made. Hence, agency is a contextual behavior that leads to actions that may be
either maintaining of existing conditions, or transformative, whether such outcomes are
intended or not.

Structural understandings of context

In general, a Marxist structural approach sees context as the conjuncture of structural
mechanisms that is fundamentally, and most simplistically, the interaction between econom-
ic base and political superstructure. Conjunctures occur within an overarching systemic
structure in which the logic of capital accumulation predominates but is enabled by the
interaction between different formations of institutionalized social relations that enable
unequal exchange.4 In the contemporary context of capitalism, Marxist analysis implies
that “world history is understandable in terms of dialectics of the whole, the geographical
instance of the whole, and the relations across space between these instances. . .uneven
development of contradictions across space, the forms in which contradictions appear as
complexes of crises, and the (spatial) relations between these complexes” (Peet, 1981: 109,
quoted in Peet, 1998: 128).
In our approach, we follow previous rejections of “iron laws” of structural Marxism, and
emphasize the need to consider the historically contingent development of society (Merleau-
Ponty, 1962). Especially, Althusser’s (1969) aim was to introduce a form of contingency to
Marxism while also maintaining a strong role for structure. The meta-theoretical approach
that emerged was the idea of the socio-spatial dialectic (Santos, 1977; Soja, 1980; developed
by Plummer and Sheppard, 2006), and the creation of “conjunctures” of structural imper-
atives and contingent circumstances (Peet, 1998: 121). The dialectical approach is both
relational, in the sense that conjunctures have meaning through their connection to each
other, and involves a structure-agency interaction. Relations, agency, and structure are all
necessary for a full understanding. The relational approach tends to favor the actor, or
agency, over the constraints imposed by structures while still wishing to include “macro-
theoretical considerations because human agency is not independent from the conditions of
the capitalist system” (Jones, 2014: 607 quoting Bathelt, 2006: 230). We agree with claims
that there is a need to look at the “wider contexts” within which relations are formed
1584 Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 50(8)

(Jones, 2014: 609); and to “stabilize the world to develop models of how it works”
(Sunley, 2008: 16).
Emergent structures allow for the identification of the socio-spatial dialectic in the inter-
action of multiple levels of a structure (Sunley, 2008: 14). Higher-level properties of a
structure emerge from relations between actors within the structure. The result is not only
the dynamics of the structure itself, but the “emergent higher-level property or pattern
begins to cause effects in the lower level, either in component entities or in their patterns
of interactions” (Sawyer, 2001: 559 quoted in Sunley, 2008: 14). The result is a structure with
“a relational property that has the generative capacity to modify the powers of its constit-
uents in fundamental ways” (Sunley, 2008: 14). States would be one “constituent” of the
structure and, the structure displays a form of scalar-dialectics in which “scalar processes are
co-constituted so that the local is not distinct from the global, and vice versa” (Sunley, 2008:
14). Constituents, or institutions within the system are co-constitutive but it should also be
emphasized that they are socially constructed. Hence, their roles and actions, the rules by
which they operate, may have the unintended consequence of re-creating situations that are
detrimental to their goals. The agency of states may be modeled to illuminate such contin-
gent and contextualized state behavior.
World-systems analysis is useful in bringing structure, relationality, agency, and context
together for two reasons: It adopts a political-economy approach to increase the complexity
of agents and structures, and ups the ante in the ontological scope of context and structure
by claiming the capitalist world-economy as the unit of analysis. Though a structural
approach, focus upon agency, process and emergence frame our analysis of “social structure
as involving internal relations between actors occupying positions that have sets of respon-
sibilities and capabilities attached to them” (Sunley, 2008: 11, citing Lawson, 1997).
In world-systems analysis, the ideas of “social formation” and “spatial dialectics” are
conceptualized at a level of analysis that goes beyond the monadic or “kernel” theorization
of capitalism” (Chase-Dunn, 1989: 23) to a “global formation” (Chase-Dunn, 1989: 27).
Uneven development and spatial variations in capitalist relations are products of multiple
modes of production existing within the capitalist world-economy. A mosaic of institution-
alized power relations generates relations of unequal exchange that are the basis of a core-
periphery hierarchy of inequality, a necessary feature of the system (Chase-Dunn, 1989: 25).
Localized socio-economic formations (Santos, 1977: 5) are expressions of the processes
of unequal exchange that have a scope beyond bounded “localities” and are only given
meaning through their role in system wide processes of accumulation (Frank, 1998: 4). The
importance of a relational perspective in the world-systems approach (Frank, 1998: 28–29)
echoes the imperatives of relational economic geography, but provides a specific structure of
the interaction of the axial division of labor and the longue duree of cycles and secular
trends. The outcome is a series of conjunctures (Wilson, 2009: 245 quoting Lee, 1996: 202)
that are the outcome of processes, and hence temporal dynamics (Lee, 1996: 202).
The structure of capitalism defined by world-systems analysis is dynamic and a set of
conjunctures that can be conceptualized as contexts. It is to the specificity of those contexts,
and the way they emerge from agency, that we now turn.

World-systems as an approach to structure and context

The world-systems approach to the capitalist world-economy is one way to “conceptualize
the capitalist space economy as a complex spatial system” (Martin and Sunley, 2007;
Plummer and Sheppard, 2006: 626). The world-economy is an aggregation of, “institutional
patterns which regulate competition and conflict. . . [that are]. . . historical creations of
Flint and Dezzani 1585

individual and collective actions” (Chase-Dunn, 1989: 2). It is the existence, contest, coop-
tion, and co-existence of these different institutional arrangements that create conjunctures
(or social economic formations to use the more generic language of Santos, 1977) with
different spatial expressions. The result is the geographical mosaic of the global formation.
Contestation means that the historical social system is neither completely systemic nor fully
indeterminate (Chase-Dunn, 1989: 14). Rather it is the conjuncture of these different insti-
tutional formations, and the power relations between them, all within the underlying logic of
ceaseless capital accumulation, that is the particular interaction of base and superstructure
of the capitalist world-economy. The way in which base and superstructure interact provide
the many contextual settings in which action, whether transformative or not, is possible and
constrained.
The initial element of context is position in the world-economy. Inequity, and the
co-construction of core and peripheral regions, is an essential feature of the capitalist
world-economy. Hence, the behavior of a state will reflect the manner in which it is embed-
ded in the broad set of relations that constitute the whole social system (Frank, 1998). The
primary element of position is the core-periphery hierarchy and the particular moment
within the temporal dynamics of economic (Kondratieff) and hegemonic cycles: Or the
space-time matrix within which state actions can be situated (Flint and Taylor, 2011: 26).
The spatial ordering of the capitalist world-economy is a relational geography that Frank
(1998) identified as the metropole–satellite relationship, the spatial expression of the devel-
opment of underdevelopment (Frank, 1978a, 1978b):5 Producing contexts that are
situational-relational rather than just positional. Context, as defined by core-periphery pro-
cesses, is a matter of spatial form that is given meaning through connection to other spatial
forms. It is these relationships that make the capitalist world-economy, and also construct
the contexts that actors find themselves. The mutuality of context and agency is evident as
forming new relationships, or maintaining existing ones, is the agency available to states
that, in turn creates new contexts for action.
Following the axioms of human geography, these processes require a related mutual
construction of space – such as the agglomeration of similar industries. The territorial
nature of states promotes them as the actors that play an active role in trying to “capture”
particular processes within borders. Over time, capturing core processes and negotiating
with labor in a contested process, results in differential production sectors and processes,
and social reproduction arrangements, within states. The result is “core states” or states
within which the majority of processes are core, etc. However, the shorthand expression
“core state” should not detract from an understanding of the geographical extent of the
capitalist world-economy as a field, or surface, in which core and processes agglomerate in
different locations – some of which are contained within state borders while others spill
across political entities.6
Position in the world-economy is not the sole element of context. The particular regional
setting of a state (Buzan and Waever, 2004; Murphy, 2005) is also a factor. Regional setting
allows for the consideration of “mesoscale” (Murphy, 2005: 281) processes and relationships
that are manifest in rivalries and cooperation based on long-standing and culturally embed-
ded political relations. Such a complex understanding of position goes some way towards
alleviating concerns of structural determinism by adding historical cultural ties, long-
standing antagonisms, territorial disputes, etc.; though the rules of the capitalist world-
economy and the constraints imposed by the core-periphery hierarchy remain.
Contextual setting is not static. Two sets of inter-related temporal dynamics form
the historical aspect of context. Kondratieff waves are the economic rhythm of the world-
economy (Wallerstein, 1984: 16–17). The political dynamic of the capitalist world-economy
1586 Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 50(8)

is the hegemonic cycle that has been a feature of the nineteenth (British hegemony) and
twentieth (US hegemony) centuries (Boswell and Sweat, 1991; Goldstein, 1988). Within the
temporal dynamics of hegemony lie the opportunities for states to act in a way that allows
them to improve, and in some cases causes them to worsen, their position in the hierarchy of
the capitalist world-economy. The context created by the rise and fall of hegemonic powers
frame the agency of states, including going to war (Gilpin, 1988), within periodic regimes of
rules and norms (Keohane, 1984; Moravcsik, 1993; Zangl, 1994). By extension, periods of
hegemonic decline or absence dilute the importance of a regime in setting a context for
established or expected state actions (Kindleberger, 1976; Krasner, 1976). Hence, one com-
ponent of contextualized state maneuver is the calculations made with regard to other states,
including the hegemon, within the process of hegemonic rise and decline.
Position in the world-economy is not a life-sentence. Though the three-tier hierarchy of
the capitalist world-economy is a necessary and permanent feature of the system there is
room for movement for individual states (Dezzani, 2002). The proportion of states that may
be classified within each of the categories of core, periphery, and semi-periphery remains
fixed to retain the overall balance between levels of consumption and cheap production to
enable continued capital accumulation, but individual states can move up or down the
hierarchy. The categories of the world system hierarchy may also change within a stochastic
context such that analysis may reveal significant cohorts as subsets or aggregations of the
more traditional tripartite configuration (see Clark and Beckfield, 2009; Dezzani, 2001;
Nemeth and Smith, 1985; Quah, 1997; Smith and White, 1992; Snyder and Kick, 1979).
There is room for movement, but not much (Babones, 2009; Dezzani, 2002).
The limited degree of movement in the hierarchy of the capitalist world-economy is the
result of a set of processes through which the structure of the system becomes emergent.
The structure is not pre-given at any one time, but the product of the many previous actions
of multiple agents. The capitalist world-economy is a macro-scale relational interaction of
different socio-economic formations, or contexts, with their particular geographic expres-
sion (Peet, 1981; Santos, 1977). Socio-economic formations have a temporal legacy meaning
that they give a geographical expression to social relations with a particular role in
the system wide processes of accumulation (Santos, 1977: 6). The regional agglomerations
of economic activity and the strategic couplings involved are the contemporary expression
of such socio-economic formations, or contexts (Yeung, 2016). It is within the paths formed
by inter-related and dynamic contexts that states maneuver.

State maneuver
Identifying the state as our unit of analysis enables us to examine the way state policies play
an important role in the global economic landscape that is created by the aggregation of
global commodity chains (Grinberg, 2016; Yeung, 2016). States territorialize the politics of
the capitalist world-economy. Their ability to capture certain nodes within a commodity
chain and frame politics around such nodes is a basis for understanding how core and
periphery processes are territorialized so that commodity chains interact with state actions
(Bair, 2014; Quark, 2014; Quark and Slez, 2014).
The important role of the state is a function of its territoriality that has made it the
essential organizing agent in the “institutional vortex” (Taylor, 1992b) of the capitalist
world-economy. The capturing of core and periphery processes within state borders is a
fundamental politics of the capitalist world-economy (Wallerstein, 1984: 4). The process of
capital accumulation requires lowering costs through different forms of labor relations and
increasing profits by creating pseudo-monopolies (Wallerstein, 1984: 3). Class struggle
Flint and Dezzani 1587

between the bourgeois and the proletariat and inter-bourgeois competition create a
politics in which “intrabourgeois political struggles take the form of interstate struggle”
(Wallerstein, 1984; 4). States have established partial control of the movement of goods,
labor, and capital across borders, set rules to govern social relations of production, taxed
production and consumption, redistributed wealth across populations (or not), subsidized
some economic activities and not others, monopolized violence (with varying degrees of
success), and enabled the individualization of profit and the socialization of economic risk
(Wallerstein, 1983: 49–55). The organizational power to conduct such politics, and in the
process alter the balance of core and periphery processes within a certain set of borders
“is most often institutionalized within state structures or guaranteed by property laws which
are backed up by states” (Chase-Dunn, 1989: 24). This is maneuver. States may have to
react to similar conditions but “this does not mean they are powerless institutions tossing in
the economic sea” (Taylor, 1994: 121). In fact, the actions of states constitute the emergent
structure of the capitalist world-economy as the “policies pursued by states are integral to
the periodic restructuring of the world-economy” (Taylor, 1994: 121).
We do not assume the state to be a deterministic monolithic entity. States are character-
ized by the combination of processes and mechanisms that induce them to change their
relative position in the capitalist world-economy. Geographical variability and functional
efficiency of these processes and mechanisms are critical for state performance in
the international arena. States are mobile because of initial (or t-1) endowments of these
characteristics, but also owing to the relative effectiveness of decision-making on domestic
and foreign policy.
Coupling ostensibly intra-state processes and global processes requires interrogating the
concept of hierarchy. So long as sovereignty exists as an organizing principle governing state
autonomy in international law, then the structure provided by hierarchy cannot be denied.
This structure also carries implications of scale as a characteristic of hierarchy (Lake, 2009:
33–41). Hierarchy as a structural characteristic is rooted in political authority and sover-
eignty; or the degree and form of control, both direct and indirect, between the governor
and the governed (Lake, 2009: 45–49). Thus, differential authority is tied to geographically-
limited administrative boundaries that define the structural relation for “levels” of authority
and application of legitimate policy over a particular space, that includes local, provincial
and national means of government. This specific application of authority over a well-defined
geographical range creates a “scale” of legal mechanisms that may govern and coordinate
processes that are political, economic and social, though defined by their interactions
beyond their immediate location and across the extent of the world-economy. Hence, the
numerous regional configurations that constitute the world economy (Yeung, 2016) consti-
tute, and are constituted by, the politics of the state.
In this way, though not to simplify the issue, scale is a function of geography and may
also be defined by distance-decay effects and transport or interaction/transaction costs for
economic and social processes both global and domestic. These economic processes interact
with a scalar construction of government. Local authorities, at the sub-state level or sec-
ondary civil division, also have an authority of policy applications that exhibit influence
within the defined administrative geography of the unit. These local or regional policies do
not extend to the remainder of the state but only apply in the region of legitimacy (Jonas,
2006; MacKinnon, 2011; Marston and Jones, 2005). This is also a reflection of the hierar-
chical political process and the “scale” of application is a function of the geographical extent
of the political unit container. These hierarchical and scale structural relations vary by state
and the level and type of organization may also provide benefits or liabilities for global
interaction (Lake, 2009: 45).
1588 Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 50(8)

While we have not yet specifically defined the scales of economic processes, it is assumed
that these processes are responding to regional and global demands in scalable markets and
these scales may differ from those conferred by political boundaries. This framework is
stochastic so behavioral outcomes are the result of likelihoods conditioned on many
actors and scales of behavior (Sheppard, 2016: 86–90). States serve as containers and col-
lectors of behaviors and processes but the global economy and economic performance
conditioned by this arena is the dominant process. To explain the behaviors of agents
both within and across state boundaries to act and react to processes across a variety of
scales, the ideas of strategic coupling, productivity chains and value chains must be brought
into the world-systems context that identifies the continuing role of the territorialization of
economic processes that is a key element of state maneuver.
Economic processes have become increasingly integrated and trans-national. Yet the role
of state maneuver is still evident. For example, the rise of China since the late 1970s to
become the world’s second largest economy as an increasingly capitalist state, albeit with a
particular central-planning component, is testament to this process. This is a near-ideal
example of upward mobility of state in the global hierarchy accomplished through both
external and internal modification of political, economic and social processes. The Chinese
example shows the interaction of processes of global economic integration as processes and
mechanisms of state position change (as suggested by Coe et al., 2004; Neilson et al., 2014;
Yeung, 2015, 2016).
The construction of networks of production, value and services occurs within, and is
constitutive of, the politics of inter-state competition that we define as maneuver.
The development and construction of globalized commodity chains is a matter of intra-
and inter-state geopolitical arrangements (Glassman, 2011). The ability to make such
arrangements is part of the strategy of state maneuver. Globalized commodity and value
chains internalize transaction costs and serve to integrate state-level production into global
production through mechanisms such as strategic coupling (Yeung, 2016; Yeung and
Coe, 2015).
Analyzing state maneuver requires consideration of both economic and political, and
contemporary and historic, factors. Changing political processes can be assessed through
voting behavior, type of government, party participation and other direct measures of polit-
ical engagement. Economic processes vary significantly by history (e.g. colonial experience
either as colony or colonizer), resource availability, labor quality, literacy, quality of
life, education, access to opportunity, transport and other forms of infrastructure.
For the industry of a country to participate in global value and commodity chains, there
must be a favorable regulatory environment and taxation policies provided by the state and
the ability of industries to construct service and value linkages across the state boundary
(Yeung, 2016: 4–6). Governments also play a role in facilitating partnerships among busi-
nesses, industries and research institutions. Such decisions involve many agents but will
ultimately influence the relative position of a state with respect to others in the competitive
framework of the world-economy.
Model-based assessment of change in the relative position of a state is measurable using
variables keyed to these agents and processes of change. To emphasize the emergent yet
lasting nature of the system and the contexts it produces we conceptualize the structure of
the capitalist world-economy as a formation of hierarchy that is defined by the competition
for, and distribution of scare resources (Georgescu-Roegen, 1971; Nicolis and Prigogine,
1989). Competition for these resources frames agency within a structure that sets, at any
given time, a differential capacity to use and share the scarce resources (Arrighi, 1994;
Pomeranz, 2000).
Flint and Dezzani 1589

We identify the following scarce resources of the capitalist world-economy, moving from
economic resources, through political resources, and finishing with their intersection:

(i) production capacity in agriculture and manufacturing (Wallerstein, 1979, 1983)

(ii) access to finance capital – the surplus value that permits funding of projects to create
and change existing distributions of other scarce resources; hence a prime driver of
systemic change (Arrighi, 1994).
(iii) transaction cost bargaining power – following Shapley–Shubik, the relative degree of
influence within the system that emerges through the agglomeration of high-value
added sectors and their ability to set prices relative to lower added sectors. The greater
bargaining power of high-value added sectors reduces their risk and lowers transaction
costs of core states (Shapley and Shubik, 1954).
(iv) the ability to plan and build social, productive, and financial interaction networks that
enable production and flows (Arrighi, 1994; Braudel, 1984; Wallerstein, 1983)
(v) system security; the provision of the public good of political stability both within state
borders (Tilly, 1990) and across the system (Modelski, 1987)
(vi) from (iv) and (v), to accumulate capital states need protection to ensure the functioning
of their enterprises by minimizing disruption through violence and, if possible, the
establishment of monopolies. This is the ability to extract protection rent (Lane, 1979).

In sum, the political and economic processes identified in the previous six points create
geographies of differential development driven by sectoral efficiencies in specific places
leading to power-capital advantages and transaction cost minimization (Dezzani and
Chase-Dunn, 2010). The operation of the capitalist world-economy involves these six
forms of agency in multiple and simultaneous forms that are fully interdependent and
integrated. Thereby creating, at the systemic level, a single or common strategic resource
limitation. The first three points refer to production in the capitalist world-economy, and the
manner in which economic and state elites interact to retain existing economic activities, or
innovate new ones. The third point highlights how an agglomeration of economic activity
derived from core processes compounds relational advantages towards other states whose
economies are based on lower order economic activities. Once such a relationship has been
created it enables the maintenance of the relative positions of states in the hierarchy of the
world-economy. The relational nature of the system is formed through networks that act as
conduits for the flows of commodities, finance, people, and knowledge. The fourth point
acknowledges the control of such networks as a key resource. Capital accumulation occurs
through the creation of quasi-monopolies, and the legal enforcement of contracts and pri-
vate property, as well as the control and social reproduction of labor. The fifth point refers
to the role states play in producing such social order, both within their borders and through
extra-territorial actions. The competitive nature of state actions, and their role in providing
comparative advantage for particular firms, is addressed through the concept of protection
rent, point six. States undergo militarized and other authoritative actions to decrease the
transaction costs of firms tied to their territories (such as combating piracy or enforcing
sanctions) while increasing the transaction costs of competitors.
The final point refers to the manner in which the economic and political processes of (i)
through (vi) mutually construct geographies at a variety of scales. These social-spatial
formations are created within the capitalist world-economy and have a legacy or inertia
that partially determines future actions.
Maneuver is the competition for the resources of the capitalist world-economy (i–vi)
within the spatial formations, or contexts, created by previous acts of maneuver.
1590 Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 50(8)

Existing spatial formations and the actions of other states frame the range of decisions that a
state may make as well as the norms and rules of action. In sum, these myriad actions are
the simultaneous maneuver of all states in the world-economy. Aggregative, though not
coordinated or determined, maneuver of all states (and other actors) are the atoms of the
processes that create the emergent structure of the capitalist world-economy. As such, a
variety of factors from path dependent process effects, (i.e. Markov dependence), to internal
power politics and resource factor endowments can be manipulated in a variety of ways that
influence decisions, policies and actions which result in a state’s maneuver posture. Not only
endogenized factors but also global and regional processes influence the maneuver position
of a state.
Perceptions of hegemonic stature, and capital accumulation and concentration cycles
(i.e. Kondratieff cycles) all provide input into the maneuver decision process (Figure 1).
Maneuver, as a combination of learning and action, occurs within the specific contexts of
the structure of the capitalist world-economy. By identifying context as the contingent
ways within which competition for scarce resources come together within the structural
imperatives of the system we are able to conceptualize agency as partially, or contextually
determined, and the manner in which the structure is maintained and transformed. Within
this multi-faceted, relational, and dynamic context states must make decisions that are
formed within, and formative of, contexts. We discuss a way to model such state behavior
in the next section.

Modeling the hierarchical world-economy

Denying and avoiding a false distinction between agent, structure, and context the modeling
of state behavior must operationalize the fact that changes in one part of the world-economy
can induce changes in another because they are connected. One way to accomplish this is to
model the integrating characteristic for each part of the world-economy. The basis of this
approach to system description is to capture the individual changes as part of the entire
system mechanism. This means that changes in one part of the world-economy can induce
changes in another because they are connected. One way to accomplish this is to model
the integrating characteristic for each part of the world-economy. Any model of change in
the world-system must incorporate this criterion, while also considering agency that is
bounded, but not determined, by structural constraints. In other words, an element of
stochasticity must be operationalized into a descriptive and evaluative quantita-
tive framework.
The details of our suggested modeling approach are explained in the rest of this section.
This paragraph summarizes the modeling approach. The utility of an explicit model is to
demonstrate how the stochasticity of our maneuver perspective can be operationalized into
a descriptive and evaluative quantitative framework.
The descriptive portion is provided by the Markov process approach that uses a derived
state space classification to permit an explicit delineation of change for a given time period.
The state space consists of a classification (many are possible) that provides a description of
the hierarchical world-economy at a specific scale. The process to be modeled is the tran-
sition of countries across levels of the hierarchy of the world-economy. The mechanism of
country change is captured through modeling the probability that any individual country
moves from one level in the hierarchy (i.e. core, semi-periphery, periphery, etc.) to another
in a specific period. The mathematical description of this probability process is a type of
Markov chain.
Flint and Dezzani 1591

Figure 1. Maneuver, learning, and hierarchy.

A Markov chain is a stochastic, or probability, process {Rn, n ¼ 1,2,. . .} that takes on

a finite or countable number of possible values (Karlin and Taylor, 1975: 48). We use
the letter R to define a particular region of the hierarchy of the world-economy
(e.g. core, periphery or semi-periphery, etc.) and the index n reflects the partition enumer-
ation of the unique regions. In the world-systems perspective, these regions are also iden-
tified as “states of being” reflected in unique sets of characteristics for each region consistent
with interaction behaviors and internal decision outcomes of the country constituents.
The world-system notion of “state” is entirely consistent with the use of “state” as state-
space modeling for Markov processes. The set of possible values can be denoted by
1592 Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 50(8)

nonnegative integers {0, 1, 2, . . ..} distinguishing the “state” as unique regions consisting of
countries reflecting similar characteristics. If Rn ¼ i, then, the process is said to be in state i at
time n. Whenever the process in state i, there is a fixed probability Pij that it will next be in
state j. Thus, the probability that a group of countries defining a region in one time period
(n to n þ 1) transitioning from state i to state j is

PfRnþ1 ¼ jjRn ¼ ig ¼ Pij

The scale of the mathematical description might be at the level of the state or some other
logically consistent spatial partition that reflects processes that are hypothesized to produce
differences in the hierarchy over time. A regional description that reflects spatial integration
either larger than or smaller than the state is also logically consistent. One such example
might be the use of world cities and their hinterlands as substitutes for country-level econ-
omies. The Markov description expressed as a matrix of transition probabilities provides a
complete description of change but cannot “explain” the causes of change in the hierarchy
from one time period to another. The logistic expansion of the transition matrix provides a
framework to employ structural and process-based independent variables so as to statisti-
cally account for the variability in the transition probabilities and suggest “explanations” of
the statistical relationships. In this way, the world-economy framework can be described,
and variables and mechanisms leading to transition or change in the hierarchy can be
evaluated. The modeling can account for the variability of persistence or change in the
transition probabilities, and thus statistically “explain” the type of change. The value of
this approach is the capacity to describe and model change using a variety of variables tied
to particular mechanisms and processes of change expected or predicted from a variety of
explanatory frameworks, including the world-systems approach.
Call the characteristic fi which is a measure of the maneuverability or transition change in
each region/zone Ri (i.e. classification for i ¼ 1, 2, . . . n). Then the entire system can be described
as a series of differential equations in terms of every other region/group component as:

@R1 =@t ¼ f1 ðR1 ; R2 ; . . . ; Rn Þ

@R2 =@t ¼ f2 ðR1 ; R2 ; . . . ; Rn Þ

...

@Rn =@t ¼ fn ðR1 ; R2 ; . . . ; Rn Þ

That is, the partial time rate of change of net change is a unique class function of change
within class as well as change across all other classes. This is necessary since the world-
economy represents a single interacting mechanism such that changes that occur in one
subsystem induce commensurate changes in other subsystems.
To begin, assume only three possible states of the world-economy as explicated in the
original world-systems framework (Wallerstein, 1984). The hierarchical state classifications
for the n countries under analysis are core, semi-periphery and periphery with indices c, s,
and p, respectively. Generally speaking, the grouping of states using prevailing commonal-
ities that reflect similar processes while permitting contexts to vary, can provide for many
more potential groups of states with statistically-similar characteristics even if processes may
vary somewhat. Thus, this analysis is not limited to the traditional tripartite division of
Flint and Dezzani 1593

groups of states in the hierarchical world-economy. As such, a structural matrix of groups

reflecting similar processes creating the hierarchical structure is directly reflective of the
dynamic mechanism of change. Theoretically, every state could form a unique “group”
reflective of its degenerate situation in the world-economy; this is, in fact the degenerate
situation and states do exhibit similar characteristics across a range of criteria that are
reflective of statistically significant groupings of territorial entities of the world-economy
(Babones, 2009; Dezzani, 2001, 2002; Quah, 1997). In actuality, there exist a continuum of
states reflecting a gradient of behaviors and characteristics for which the groupings are a
statistically significant discretization of the continuum.
Markov transition matrices provide a complete description of state-level and aggregate
mobility but do not explain maneuver mechanisms or processes.
Therefore, a logistic expansion framework, derived from the transition probability par-
titions, is added to provide an analytical basis for “explaining” maneuver mechanisms
through the inclusion of structural and contextual covariates as well as components of
state-level change.
For example, assume a valid statistical classification procedure isolates k groups of states
constituting the hierarchy of the world-economy such that k  n, where n is the total number of
states in the study thus representing the total number of possible states in the world-economy at
the time of measurement. Then, the possible transition matrix may be represented as:
0 1
F11 F12 . . . F1v
B C
B C
B F21 F22 . . . F2v C
B C
B C
B ... C
B C
@ A
Fv1 Fv2 . . . Fvc

where the rows exhibit the frequencies Fi*, such that i ¼ 1,. . .v, of states occupying the group i at
time t, and the columns F*j, such that j ¼ 1,. . .v, of state occupying group j at time t þ u, where u
is some interval of time specified by the study parameters and v  k. That is, u is the time interval
for which mobility or persistence is to be measured. Using this specification, any number of
classes, not just the original Wallerstein tripartite hierarchy, can be employed to examine the
hierarchical structure of the world-economy. The marginal totals, either row or column, repre-
sent the total states occupying the Xgrouping at time t (for rows) X or t þ u (for columns). The
marginal totals are, for example, F for row 1 and
v¼1;k 1v
F for column 1.
;v¼1;k v1
For the sake of brevity and simplicity, we will employ the conceit of a tripartite hierarchy
(e.g. Wallersteinian groupings – core, semi-periphery and periphery), of the world-economy.
If this conceit were not used, the equations describing change would require multiple lines of
text and become somewhat incomprehensible:
0 1
Fcc Fcs Fcp
B C
B C
B Fsc Fss Fsp C
B C
B C
B ... C
B C
@ A
Fpc Fps Fpp
1594 Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 50(8)

The maximum likelihood estimates for transition probabilities are estimated as the quo-
tient of the observed state frequencies with the total number of countries traversing or
persisting in the particular state for the time periods considered:

Fcc Fcs Fcp

Pcc ¼ X Pcs ¼ X Pcp ¼ X
8i
Fci 8i
Fci 8i
Fci
Fsc Fss Fsp
Psc ¼ X Pss ¼ X Psp ¼ X
8i
Fsi 8i
Fsi 8i
Fsi
Fpc Fps Fpp
Ppc ¼ X Pps ¼ X Ppp ¼ X
8i
Fpi 8i
Fpi 8i
Fpi

for all i ¼ 1, 2, . . .,n countries.

The maximum likelihood computation produces the final Markov transition
probability matrix:
0 1
Pcc Pcs Pcp
B C
B C
Mtu;ts ¼ B Psc Pss Psp C where u > s
@ A
Ppc Pps Ppp

The vector of class properties for core, semi-periphery and periphery after the time of the
estimation interval (t-u, t-s such that u > s) is:

Pðc; s; p; tÞ ¼ ðPc;t Ps;t Pp;t Þ ¼ PðtÞMtu;ts such that t  s > t  u

Pcc, Pss, Ppp are probabilities of persistence within the world-system hierarchy reflecting
Pii, where i ¼{c, s, p}, while Pij such that i,j ¼{c, s, p} but i 6¼ j. Persistence probabilities
reflect no change in state status across the time periods, hence, the persistence of states
within classes. Then, a logistic formulation is derived to capture structural relationships for
Markov transition probabilities for persistence (i.e. i,i), and mobility (i.e. i,j):
    
Pii ðb; xði; iÞÞ ¼ exp b0 xði; iÞ = 1 þ exp b0 xði; iÞ ðpersistenceÞ
    
Pij ðv; xði; jÞÞ ¼ exp v0 xði; jÞ = 1 þ exp v0 xði; jÞ ðmobilityÞ

where b and v are the corresponding parameter vectors and x is the matrix of corresponding
structural independent explanatory variables. This matrix consists of structural variables
selected to “explain” either persistence or mobility. As such, the covariate sets will differ for
persistence or mobility. The factors discussed in Figure 1 for state characteristics, learning,
maneuver and transition and their temporal change representations should provide values
for the matrix and then be used to estimate the contribution to the transition probabilities
through the estimated coefficient.
The approach used to evaluate these coefficients to explain the transition probabilities in
terms of structural explanatory variables is maximum likelihood estimation (i.e. MLE) of
the parameters (Edwards, 1972; Mood et al., 1974: 276–288). The central element of MLE is
Flint and Dezzani 1595

the likelihood function which expresses the joint probability density of the response varia-
bles in terms of the parameters to be estimated. This tells us how “likely” a particular set of
observations is given that they all occur together. The likelihood function thus provides the
expected joint chance that the random variables assume particular values from observation.
The MLE is then maximum of the likelihood function expressed by the parameters for
specific observations.
The binary response likelihood function for any particular world-system Markov transi-
tion configuration is:
Y
L¼ q
Pcc Fcc;q ð1–Pcc ÞFcs;qþFcp;q Pss Fss;q ð1–Pss ÞFsc;qþFsp;q Ppp Fpp;q ð1–Ppp ÞFpc;qþFps;q

where Fij,q are the number/frequency of transitions of each type observed in the qth country.
When the expectations of the logistic functions are embedded in the likelihood then the log-
likelihood becomes ln(L) ¼ L0 þ L1 where L0 is the likelihood for persistence and L1 is the
likelihood for mobility. For brevity, we will only illustrate functions for persistence:

X
n   
L0 ¼ Fðcc; qÞ b0 xðqÞ  ðFðcc; qÞ þ ½Fðcs; qÞ þ Fðcp; qÞÞ ln 1 þ exp b0 xðqÞÞg
q¼1

Maximize L0 þ L1 by Bayesian hierarchical Newton–Raphson iteration and estimate the

parameter vectors b and v provided the design matrix x is of full rank and the logistic for
persistence and mobility can be estimated separately as there are no terms involving both
parameter sets simultaneously:
X   0
@L0 =@bs ¼ q¼1;n
xðqs Þ F cc;q –ð F cs;q þ F cp;q Þ P cc b xðqÞÞ

X
n   
@ 2 L0 =@bs @br ¼  xðqs Þxðqr ÞðFcc;q þ ½Fcs;q þ Fcp;q Þ Pcc b0 xðqÞÞ 1–Pcc b0 xðqÞÞ
q¼1

Hence, there exists a feasible covariate solution set for the explanation of world-system
transition. The result of this functional explication is the derivation of the logistic function.
The logistic can be used as a framework of stochastic “explanation” for persistence and/or
mobility of countries across the states of the world hierarchy.
The logistic function is derived from the log-likelihood for the core persistence expression
and is delineated as:
   
ln Pcc =ð1–Pcc Þ ¼ Z which implies Pcc =ð1–Pcc Þ ¼ eZ

So that
  X
Pcc ¼ FðZÞ ¼ F b0 x ¼ Fðb0 þ b x Þ ¼ 1 þ eðb0xÞ
m¼1;k m m

Validation of maneuver decisions can be evaluated by assessing the significance of param-

eters associated with independent variable selected to capture maneuver behavior that
would “explain” the variation in the transition probabilities (see Figure 1). This analytical
1596 Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 50(8)

framework should provide a statistically feasible assessment of maneuver behavior that

might be expected to account for movement of countries in the hierarchy; hence, provide
a stochastic explanation of maneuver as it results in transition probabilities (Dezzani, 2012).
A mixed logistic framework can also be used to generalize the parameter specification and
evaluate country-level behaviors with respect to persistence and/or movement in the hier-
archy (Mcfadden and Train, 2000; Wang and Puterman, 1998):
X
Pcc;i ¼ Fi ðZi Þ ¼ Fi ðb’xÞ ¼ Fi ðb0;i þ b x Þ
m¼1;k m;i m;i
¼ 1 þ eðb’xÞi

for countries i ¼ 1, 2, . . .,n and parameters m ¼ 1, 2, . . .,k and i is the index for specific cases
representing regional subsets for different time periods.
The specified framework permits both specific and general maneuver hypotheses to be
evaluated. The Markov methods provide system description for the hierarchical arrange-
ment of the world-economy for a time interval and the logit decomposition of the transition
probabilities, as persistence or mobility behaviors, coupled with functional logistic covariate
analysis provide the statistical explanation of specific and general maneuver hypotheses.
Given this framework, a comprehensive mechanism for description, explanation and eval-
uation of state-level mobility is now available for use as a general tool for research on state
maneuver in the capitalist world-economy.

Potential problems and issues with the analytical approach

As with all quantitative methodologies, there is a necessity for generalization and the need to
make hypotheses tractable to the data available. Models, by definition, are simplifications of
reality. However, by choosing units of analysis that are meaningful at a scale for which
reliable data is available, such methods can provide needed information with a resolution
that is useful for both theory validation and policy analysis. These two goals are well within
the capacities of the proposed method. It is necessary that covariates in the logistic model
must reflect measures of maneuver-based processes, policies and effects otherwise, the
“explanatory” logistic model will not capture the salient features of the maneuver behavior.
Nevertheless, if the independent variables constituting the covariate effects on transition can
be shown to be effective measures of maneuver behavior, then specific maneuver hypotheses
can be evaluated.
While regionalization classes are not an emergent feature from this analysis, a variety of
forms of rigorous pre-Markov analysis coupled with post transition matrix validation can
provide emergent specifications (Dezzani, 2001). The application of criteria of statistical
efficiency defined as variance minimization can suggest improvements in classifications
which are necessary and prior to the Markov transition matrix and logistic analysis.
Data limitations are the major issue with most global, long-term studies. Most reliable
data at the state level begins in the 1950s and extends to the present. However, variable
coverage can be intermittent. As such, many studies limit the number of possible cases to
be included (see Dezzani, 2001, 2002). Criticisms that the study can only be state-centered
are not necessarily valid as other “actors” for which comparable data is available may be
included in the structural and explanatory components of the analysis. However, the data
types across actors are assumed to be complimentary; as such, data quality and availability
maybe the major limitation of the approach. This situation tends to reflect the common case
with most quantitative approaches to complex social science studies.
Flint and Dezzani 1597

Conclusion
Trends in social science have emphasized agency at the expense of structure, such as the
epistemology of rational choice. The idea of maneuver allows for an exploration of the pos-
sibilities of state action within the structural constraints of the capitalist world-economy that
come together in conjunctures of economic and political processes within regional and tem-
poral contexts. A political geography approach to maneuver identifies (1) a sense of an actor’s
situation, with regard to the processes and mechanisms which it must act within and which act
upon it (2) an element of agency, the possibilities and constraints facing an actor, (3) an
understanding of how an actor learns about its situation, possibilities, and constraints, (4)
the types of decisions an actor may make, (5) a temporal dynamic to understand the historic
scope of (i) the dynamics of the structure, (ii) the learning process, and (iii) the decision-
making process, and (6) an inclusion of the geographic expression of structural constraints –
such as regional and neighborhood processes. Furthermore, contextualized state behavior
within the capitalist world-economy can be modeled in a way that includes the dynamic
interactions between agency, context, and structure. The benefit of this approach is that we
no longer talk about position of states in the three-tier hierarchy, with the associated con-
notations of determinism, but of maneuver that reflects the contextualized and constrained
behavior of states.

Declaration of conflicting interests

The author(s) declared no potential conflicts of interest with respect to the research, authorship, and/or
publication of this article.

Funding
The author(s) received no financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of
this article.

Notes
1. The International Monetary Fund World Economic Outlook, April 2015. www.imf.org/external/
pubs/ft/weo/2015/01/. Accessed August 4, 2015.
2. Innovation: Catalyst to Growth. Eritrea – Ministry of Information. 2 August 2015. www.shabait.
com/categoryblog/20247-innovation-catalyst-to-growth. Accessed 4 August 2015.
3. See the discussion of hierarchical information theory for dissipative structures (HIT) by Brooks and
Wiley (1988: 63–79). However, the idea of maneuver as decision-making does not echo their more
functional approach to genetic evolution in a hierarchical context. For a full discussion of the
applicability of evolutionary biology to understanding economic processes see Martin and
Sunley’s (2007) discussion of Lawson (2003).
4. States are essential institutions in creating a mosaic of social relations and trade between states is
the key mechanism. While it is certainly important to identify other institutional forms (such as
households, “peoples,” and classes), we examine the contextual setting of states.
5. Frank was building upon Braudel’s (1984) identification of a European world-economy and other
world economies, though Frank (1998: 29) is critical of this approach as Eurocentric.
6. Though we recognize the existence of other actors in the world-economy (such as firms, households,
classes, and “peoples”, Wallerstein, 1984), we concentrate on states because of their role in terri-
torializing the processes of capital accumulation (Wallerstein, 1983: 48).
1598 Environment and Planning A: Economy and Space 50(8)

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