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Structure Performance
Line
b
a
h
h
c a l
b r
r
600 600
500 500
400 400
300 300
200 200
100 100
0 0
-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
Age Group
75 & Over
Females Males
70-74 >85
65-69 80-85
60-64 75-80
55-59 70-75
50-54 65-70
45-49 60-65
40-44 2000
55-60
Age
35-39 50-55
30-34 45-50 1985
25-29 35-40
20-24 30-35
15-19 25-30
10-14 20-25
5-9 15-20
Under 5 10-15
5-10
<5
50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50
10 5 0 0 5 10
Males Females Million persons Million persons
>85 >85
80-85 80-85
75-80 75-80
70-75 70-75
65-70 65-70
60-65 60-65
55-60 55-60
50-55 50-55
45-50 45-50
35-40 35-40
30-35 30-35
25-30 25-30
20-25 20-25
15-20 15-20
10-15 10-15
5-10 5-10
<5 <5
5 5
4 4
3 3
2 2
1 1
5
3
4
3
2
2
1 1
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 0 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29
100% 100%
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
20 20
40 40
60 60
80 80
100 100
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
20 20
40 40
60 60
80 80
100 100
Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5
0.3 A 0.3
B
0.2 0.2
F
C Old
0.1 D 0.1
E
New
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 50
14 14
12 12
10 10
8 8
6 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
14 14
12 12
10 10
8 8
6 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
X - 2 X- X X+ X + 2 -2 -1 0 1 2
Probability
Time
Probability
x
x
Time
y
y
100% 100%
60
8%
9%
80% 50
3%
60% 40
39%
30
40%
9% 20
3%
20%
29% 10
0% 0
10 100%
8 80%
6 60%
4 40%
2 20%
0 0%
100% 100%
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
Jan Feb March April May June July Jan Feb March April May June July
11 100%
10.8
10 80%
9 60%
8.3
8 40%
7 20%
7.2
6 0%
Jan Feb March April May June July Jan Feb March April May June July
150 160
130 140
90 100
70
85
80
69 74
36 43
20
66 70 75
54 57 61
50
160
140 150
130
90 100
70
70 75
66
57 61
50 54
100% 5% 5% A 5% 100%
8% 6% B 8%
10% C
12% 12%
15% 15%
25% E
20% 20%
20% F
30% 30%
15% G
0% 0%
Segment A1
Segment A2
Segment A4
Segment A5
Segment B1
Segment B3
Segment C1
Segment C Segment C
Segment C2 Segment C2
100% 100%
40%
20%
10%
10% 5%
100% 100% Potential Volume Share
100% 100% 100%
40%
40%
20%
20% 20%
10% 20% 10%
5% 10% 5%
Potential
Potential Volume Share
100% 100% 100%
100 20%
%
Volume
40%
20%
20%
10% 10%
5% 100 20% 10% 5%
%
100
90
80
70
60
50
Bottom Middle High
100
90
80
70
60
50
Small Medium Large
Unfavorable Favorable
Low High
High Low
High Low
High Low
Many None
Intense None
Favorable Unfavorable
High Low
Low High
Low High
Low High
None Many
None Intense
C1 C2 C1 C2
A B C D E F A B C D E F
35 35
30 30
25 25
20 20
15 15
10 10
5 5
0 0
50 100 150 200 200 150 100 50
Time Time
Time Time
60
55
20
15
10
5
10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
60
40
Percentage Return
20
-20
-40
-60 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95
26
Year
1600 18
1400 16
1200 14
12
1000
10
800
8
600
6
400 4
200 2
0 0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
-500
-1000
-1500 0
-2000 5 10 15
Return
+10%
10%
- + 10%
-10%
Risk
Return Return
rm . rm .
rf rf
Risk BETA
1.0
20 20
0 0
0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0 0.2 0.8 1.2
20 20
0 0
0 0.2 0.8 1.2 0 0.2 0.8 1.2
r r
r r
A
A
B
C
Time Time
A A
B
B
Time Time
0
100% 100%
0 0
100% 100%
0
35 65 99 %
0
93 99 %
25 20%
80%
12.5
20%
0 1 2 3 4 5 0 1 2 3 4 5
0 0
10% 12 14 16 18 20 10% 12 14 16 18 20
0 Time 0 Time
5 10 5 10
High
Good
Bad
Low
Low High
better
than
Performance
same
as
worse
than
Time
Low High
Unit
A Sales
Volume A
B B
C
Time
Time Time
100% 100%
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
100% 100%
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
1 1
0 10 0 10
1 1
0 10 0 10
High High
Low Low
High High
High High
Low Low
Low High Low High
Desirable Desirable
Horizon 3 Horizon 3
Horizon 2 Horizon 2
Horizon 1 Horizon 1
Time Time
Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3 Stage 4 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 3
High High
Low Low
Low High Low High
High High
High High
Stage 4
Stage 4
Stage 3
Stage 3
Stage 2
Stage 2
Stage 1
Stage 1
Basic Basic
Stage Stage
High High
Time Time
Time Time
Volume Volume
2000 1990 1980 1970 1930 1880 1850
High
High
Low High
Low High
Low
High
High
Low High
Low High
Low
High High
0 10 Small Large
Low Low
High High
Low Low
High Low High Low
Low Low
High High
Low Low
High High
Low Low
High High
Low Low
II I
III IV
4 1
3 2
F1 F2 F3 F4 F1 F2 F3 F4 F1 F2 F3 F4
P1
P
P2
P
P3
P1 P2 P3 P4 P1 P2 P3 P4
F1
P4
F2 F1
P3 F3
F4 F2
P2
P1
F3
F4
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
- - -
11 21 31 41
12 22 32 42
13 23 33 43
Branch 1
Start Branch 2
Branch 3
. .
< <
Details Details
Result
Details Details
Decrease
Increase
No change
Increase
Decrease
1
Start
No No
Yes
Yes
2 NO 5
Choice Action
No
YES
No
3 6
Action Action
Yes
4 7 NO Yes
Action Choice
No
YES
N
o
8 Yes
End
1 4
2 5
3 6
1
M C M C
2 1 4
3
4
5 2 5
M C M D C
6
7 3 6
8
M C M C
9
M 1 D 2 C M 1 C
3 4 2
M D C M C
5 D 6 3
M C M C
Same Adaptation New A B C
Same
Poor
Normal
Adaptation
Good
Poor
Normal
Good
Periode t-1 Periode t Periode t+1
N
1 2 3 4 5 6 N
1950
Time Time
2000 1980
high
high
high high
low low high
high
high
high
1 2 A B 1A 2B
1A
1 A
3 B 3B
1 B 1B
3A
3 A
Value
Volume
Step 1
Step 2
Step 3
Step 4
M1 M1 M1 M1 M1 M1 M1 M1 M1
P1 P1 P1
P2 P2 P2
P3 P3 P3
M1 M1 M1 M1 M1 M1
P1 P1
P2 P2
P3 P3
Y Y
1 2
Y Y
3 4
X X
1 2
X X
3 4
H C A C A
H
DE B B
YZ J DE
XY
JK X
Z
K FG
FG
M L M L
1 2 3 4
1 2, 3
5 6 7 8 4, 8
5, 6, 7
9 10 11 12
9, 10, 11, 12
4 3 2 1
2, 3 1
8 7 6 5 4, 8
5, 6, 7
12 11 10 9
9, 10, 11, 12
(1) (2) (3) (4)
High
Seldom
Often
Low
Low High
Low Good
High Bad
Not Obvious
Many
Few
Obvious
Small Large
Small Large
Existing New
High Existing
Low New
Internal External
High High
Low Low
Low High Low High
High High
Low Low
Low High Low High
Small Large
Few Few
Small Large
Many Many
Fixed Variable
High High
Fixed Variable
Low Low
High
Low
Low High
Very Not
Important Uncertain Important One Few Many
Many
Unrelated
Partly Few
Related
Strongly One
Related
High High
Low Low
High High
Low Low
Low High Low High
Strong Average Weak
Low
Medium
High
HIGH
MODERATE High
Medium
LOW
Low
LOW MODERATE HIGH
Low High Low High
High High
Low Low
Low Low
Low High Low High
Low Low
Low Low
A A B
High High
C D D
Low Low
C
D C
High C D
High
Low A B A
Low
B
A
High 4
E 1
B 3
D
2
5
F
Low C
G
6 7
8
18%
High
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4% Low
2%
Low High
Strong Average Weak
High Low
Moderate Medium
Low High
Very high
Moderate
Very low
High High
Medium Moderate
Low Low
High High
Moderate
Medium
Low
Low
5.00 3.67 2.33 1.00
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
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