The South China Sea and Australia’s

Engagement with Southeast Asia

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

South China [West Philippine] Sea:
Its Impact on Southeast Asia and the World
2nd Virtual International Conference on the South China Sea
National Youth Movement for the West Philippine Sea
Manila, The Philippines, November 14, 2020
 The Strategic Framework

Free and Open

Australia’s Views the Indo-Pacific as a Single Strategic Maritime Arc

 Defence Strategic Update and
Force Structure Plan (July 2020)
• The drivers of change identified in the 2016 Defence
White Paper have accelerated faster than anticipated.
• Australia now faces an environment of increasing
strategic competition; the introduction of more
capable military systems enabled by technological
change; and the increasingly aggressive use of diverse
grey-zone tactics to coerce states under the threshold
for a conventional military response.
 Defence Strategic Update and
Force Structure Plan (July 2020)

• Three objectives:
• to shape Australia’s strategic environment;
• to deter actions against Australia’s interests;
and
• to respond with credible military force, when
required.
 Building Blocks of Regional Security
• Alliance with the United States
• Upgraded defence relations with Japan and India
• Trilateral Security Dialogue
• Quadrilateral Security Dialogue + EX Malabar
• Five Power Defence Arrangements (1971)
• ASEAN and ASEAN-led institutions
• Strategic Partnerships
 Australia and ASEAN

EAS
Co-chair ARF Co-chair with
Intersessional Brunei
Meeting on ARF ADMM ADMM+
Plus
Maritime Security Expert
ASEAN Working
with Vietnam and EU
Group on
Military
ASEAN
+1
EAMF Medicine
 Australia’s Strategic Partnerships
• Singapore Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (2015)
• Malaysia Strategic Partnership (2015)
• Five Power Defence Arrangements or FPDA
• Philippines Comprehensive Partnership (2015)
• Annual joint defence consultations, navy to navy strategy talks (2017)
• Enhanced Defence Cooperation Program (2019)
• Austrtalia’s Defence Minister visit, October
• Indonesia Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (2018)
• Joint Declaration on Maritime Cooperation (2017)
• Maritime Cooperation Plan of Action
• 5 pillars – includes maritime cooperation, contribution to Indo-Pacific stability
 Australia’s Strategic Partnerships
• Vietnam Strategic Partnership (2018)
• Annual meeting of PMs and Defence ministers
• Defence, intelligence and security cooperation
• Maritime and aviation security/Maritime policy making
• [Brunei MOU on Defence Cooperation 1999]
• Defence Minister visit October; submarine, Chief of Navy, P-8A, PASSEX
• France Enhanced Strategic Partnership (2017)
• Strategic Partnership (2012), Logistics agreement
• Germany Intent on Strategic Partnership (2012)
• German naval officers to serve on Australian frigates in Indian Ocean
 Australia and China
• Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (2014)
• annual meeting between prime minister/premier
• Dialogues on regional and global issues, foreign and strategic relations,
international security
• Australia-China High-Level 1.5 Track Dialogue
• political and strategic issues
• Relations at all time low: interference in Australia’s domestic affairs,
tariffs and barriers to trade – barley, beer, wine, coal
Centrality of the South China Sea
• Major trade partners:
China, Japan, South
Korea
• 43% of merchandise
exports in 2020 went
to China (iron ore)
• International law
• Unimpeded lawful
commerce
• Freedom of
navigation and
overflight
 Australia-U.S. Alliance
AUSMIN 2020 (July 2020)
‘[we take] our own actions and our own initiatives and our
own statements but we’ll say it the Australian way, we’ll say it
the way it’s in our interests’
Prime Minister Scott Morrison July 2020
‘[Australia looks] to widen and deepen our friendships across
the Indo-Pacific [in tandem with] our alliance with the US’
Ministers Marise Payne and Linda Reynolds, 25 July 2020
 Australia-U.S. Alliance
AUSMIN 2020 (July 29, 2020)
• ‘the relationship that we have with China is important, and
we have no intention of injuring it, but nor do we intend to
do things that are contrary to our interests’
• Minister Marise Payne, 29 July 2020

• Statement of Principles on Alliance Defense Cooperation and

Force Posture Priorities in the Indo-Pacific (Classified)
• Working Group to plan naval exercises
• U.S. Marines annual rotation in Darwin
• Major fuel reserve for ships and aircraft
• Cooperation on maintenance and repair
HMAS Parramatta joins USS America, USS Bunker Hill
and USS Barry in South China Sea, April; 18, 2020
 HMAS Canberra, Hobart, Stuart, Arunta and Sirius
Regional Presence Deployment – July-October 2020
HMAS Arunta , JMSDF Kirisame and USS John S. McCain
in the South China Sea, October 19, 2020
Australia’s Note Verbale to the Commission on the
Limits of the Continental Shelf (23 July 2020)
Rejected China’s claims
• that are inconsistent with UNCLOS with respect to
drawing baselines, delimiting maritime zones and
classifying features
• to “historic rights” and claims to “maritime rights and
interests” established by “historical practice”
• drawing straight baselines connecting the outermost
points of maritime features or ‘island groups’
Australia’s Note Verbale to the Commission on the
Limits of the Continental Shelf (23 July 2020)
Rejected China’s claims
• to “internal waters, territorial sea, exclusive economic zone
and continental shelf based on such straight baselines”
• to maritime zones generated by submerged features such
as low tide elevations
• to maritime zones based on the artificial transformation of
natural features
• that artificially transformed features can ever acquire the
status of an island”
 Conclusion
• Australia has embraced the Indo-Pacific Region as a
framework for its defence and foreign policy
• South China Sea is central to the Indo-Pacific Region
• Engagement by the United States is critical for
regional peace, security and stability
• Australia is building a network of allies and strategic
partners both old and new
 Conclusions

• Australia seeks engagement with China through

dialogue
• Australian interests are not always aligned with China
• Chinese interference in Australia’s domestic affairs
and sanctions against Australian exports has put
relationship under strain
The South China Sea and Australia’s
Engagement with Southeast Asia

Emeritus Professor Carlyle A. Thayer

South China [West Philippine] Sea:
Its Impact on Southeast Asia and the World
2nd Virtual International Conference on the South China Sea
National Youth Movement for the West Philippine Sea
Manila, The Philippines, November 14, 2020
 Strategic Appreciation by
Defence Minister Linda Reynolds*
• DWP 2016 underestimated speed at which the strategic outlook
has changed in the Indo-Pacific
• What was thought likely in 2030 has already happened
• China – new ballistic missiles, hypersonic weapons, stealth drones,
autonomous vehicles, cyber and space; rail guns to be mounted on war
ships
• Military modernization challenges Australia’s capability lead
• Concern U.S.-China competition may shift to adversarial relations
• Reassessment of strategic assumptions that underpinned DWP
2016 is underway
*Address to Royal Australian Navy Sea Power Conference, Sydney, October 8, 2019
 Australia and Its Strategic Partners –
Indonesia
• Framework for Security Cooperation (2006)
• Lombok Treaty/Joint Understanding 2014
• Joint Declaration on Maritime Cooperation
(2017)
• Maritime Cooperation Plan of Action
• Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (2018)
• 5 pillars: maritime cooperation, contributing
to Indo-Pacific Stability and Prosperity
 Australia and Singapore

• Five Power Defence Arrangements

• MOU on Defence Cooperation (2008)
• Training facilities in Australia
• Comprehensive Strategic Partnership (2015)
• Prime ministers meet annually
• Joint Ministerial Committee biennial
• defence and security
 Australia and Malaysia
• Five Power Defence Arrangements
• Strategic Partnership (2015)
• Annual meeting of foreign ministers
• Senior Officials’ Meeting
• Strategic Dialogue
• Enhanced Defence Dialogue
• Collaboration – ARF, ADMM Plus, APEC, ASEM, IORA
Australia and the Philippines
• MOU Cooperative Defence Activities (1995)
• Joint Defence Cooperation Committee
• Status of Visiting Forces Agreement (2012)
• Comprehensive Partnership (2015)
• Biennial Philippines-Australia Ministerial
Meeting
• annual joint defence cooperation consultations
• Navy-to-Navy Strategy talks (2017)
• Cooperation: EAS, APEC, ASEAN, ARF, UN and
Cairns Group
 Australia and Vietnam
• MOU for Defence Cooperation (2010)
• Joint Statement on the Establishment of a Strategic
Partnership (2018)
• Annual meeting of prime ministers
• annual defence ministers meeting
• defence, intelligence and security cooperation
• Maritime and aviation security
• Maritime policy-making