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GMR No. 407

INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL

GMR No. 407 INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL 20 January 2011 WORLD ESTIMATES million tons   06/07 07/08
GMR No. 407 INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL 20 January 2011 WORLD ESTIMATES million tons   06/07 07/08
GMR No. 407 INTERNATIONAL GRAINS COUNCIL 20 January 2011 WORLD ESTIMATES million tons   06/07 07/08

20 January 2011

WORLD ESTIMATES

million tons

 

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

 
 

est

forecast

 

25.11

20.01

WHEAT

   

Production

598

609

686

678

644

 

647

Trade

111

110

136

127

122

 

123

Consumption

610

612

638

650

660

 

661

Carryover stocks

125

122

170

198

180

 

185

year/year change

-12

-3

+48

+28

-13

Major exporters**

47

40

65

72

52

55

MAIZE (CORN)

 

Production

710

795

799

813

810

 

809

Trade

87

101

84

86

94

 

94

Consumption

725

775

781

815

840

 

842

Carryover stocks

117

137

155

153

121

 

120

year/year change

-16

+20

+18

-2

-33

TOTAL GRAINS*

 

Production

1588

1697

1802

1793

1725

1726

Trade

222

239

249

240

241

 

242

Consumption

1629

1684

1724

1762

1786

1787

Carryover stocks

282

295

373

404

340

 

342

year/year change

-40

+13

+78

+31

-62

Major exporters**

116

112

152

162

105

104

* Wheat and coarse grains ** Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, United States

million tons (milled basis)

 

06/07

07/08

08/09

09/10

10/11

 
 

est

forecast

 

25.11

20.01

RICE

   

Production

420

433

448

440

449

452

Trade

32

29

29

30

31

 

31

Consumption

420

430

437

437

446

448

Carryover stocks

77

80

92

94

96

 

98

year/year change

+1

+3

+12

+2

+4

MARKET COMMENTARY

International grain and oilseed prices advanced strongly in December and again in January, with some values at their highest for two years. However, export prices remained below the peaks recorded early in 2008. While there has been little fundamental change in the overall supply and demand balance in the past two months, markets were driven higher by concerns about supplies of quality milling wheat and the tightening outlook for maize and soyabeans. The influence of other commodities, including crude oil, also featured

regularly on the major exchanges. For wheat, reports that the extremely wet conditions in eastern Australia would render at least one-third of the

country’s large wheat crop unfit for flour milling were especially bullish. More recently, better prospects for US exports and a winter wheat acreage report showing a smaller than expected rise in Hard Red Winter wheat plantings further triggered buying. China was among several recent customers for Australian feed grade wheat. For maize, there were worries about a reduced official US carryover forecast as well as about whether plantings for the next crop would be sufficient to prevent stocks falling further in 2011/12. The impact of dryness, attributed to the La Niña event, on Argentina’s upcoming harvest added to the market’s nervousness. Similarly, despite quite ample current stocks, US soyabean prices moved higher, initially because of continued heavy demand from China but more recently due to a lower official US supply estimate and strength in crude oil. Rice export prices also increased, but while Thai values in late-December climbed to a ten-month peak, they subsequently fell back as the main crop harvest advanced. After mostly declining since June, ocean freight rates for

grains firmed slightly in recent months, despite a further slide in the Capesize sector. See graphic:

Wheat and maize export prices, January 2006-

EXPORT PRICES

US$ / ton

 

WHEAT

 

MAIZE

 

US$ / ton

 

RICE

SOYABEANS

 

380

380

560

560

360

EU (France) US HRW US SRW
EU (France)
US HRW
US SRW

360

US Corn, fob
US Corn, fob
 
Thai 100%
Thai 100%

540

US Soyabeans, fob
US Soyabeans, fob

540

340

340

520

320

320

520

500

300

300

500

480

280

280

260

260

480

460

240

240

440

220

220

460

420

200

200

440

400

 

23-Sep

13-Oct

02-Nov

22-Nov

10-Dec

30-Dec

19-Jan

23-Sep

13-Oct

02-Nov

22-Nov

10-Dec

30-Dec

19-Jan

 

23-Sep

13-Oct

02-Nov

22-Nov

10-Dec

30-Dec

19-Jan

23-Sep

13-Oct

02-Nov

22-Nov

10-Dec

30-Dec

19-Jan

GRAINS* SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN 2010/11

World grains supplies are forecast to tighten in 2010/11 but the outlook is little changed from two months ago. World production is expected to decline by 3.8%, to 1,726m. tons: the wheat estimate is lifted on better than expected southern hemisphere crops but the maize total is cut. By far the biggest fall in grains output was in drought- affected Russia, with big reductions too in the EU, the US, Kazakhstan and Ukraine. A further rise in world grains consumption is forecast in 2010/11, to 1,787m. tons. However, at 1.4%, the rise is flatter than in recent years. The expansion in industrial use has slowed markedly, especially in the US ethanol sector, although recent use there has been higher than anticipated. Total feed use will only rise moderately this year. The forecast fall of 62m. tons in global carryover stocks mirrors the reduction in the major grain exporters**, with big declines in Canada, the EU, Russia and the US. World trade in grains is expected to rise by 2m. tons, to 242m., only marginally more than before, with bigger imports by the EU and Russia expected to outweigh reductions in Near East and Far East Asia. Because of the fall of 29m. tons in Black Sea shipments, exports by Argentina, Australia, the EU and the US are expected to climb steeply.

WHEAT: World wheat production in 2010 is estimated at 647m. tons, the third-largest on record and up by 3m. from November. Australia’s crop is placed 2.0m. tons higher, at 25.0m., but significant quality downgrading is reported. Better than expected yields lift the forecast for Argentina by 1.0m. tons, to 14.0m. The forecast of global consumption is slightly higher, at 661m. tons, up 11m. on last year. Favourable prices for weather- damaged wheat relative to maize lift the projections of feed use in some countries. The world stocks forecast is raised by 5m. tons, to 185m., a drop of 13m. compared with the year before. Carryover projections are increased for Australia, Canada and China, but reduced for the EU and US. Increases for Egypt, South Korea, China and Saudi Arabia lift the world trade forecast by 1.1m. tons, to 122.7m. (127.4m.). Because of tightening supplies in other

exporters, the forecast of US exports is raised by 2.0m. tons, to 36.0m.

MAIZE: The production forecast is cut by 1m.

tons, to 809m., down 4m. from last year’s record. The US crop estimate is cut by 3m. tons, while Argentina’s forecast is also 3m. lower, reflecting overly dry conditions. These reductions are mostly offset by increases elsewhere, including for China. Consumption is forecast 2m. tons higher, at 842m. (815m.). Feed use is expected to rise by 3% but, because of high prices and competition from wheat, the forecast is reduced by 2m. tons. Due mainly to

a rise in US ethanol output, forecast global

industrial use is lifted by 3m. tons, to 231m. (218m.). World end-year stocks are projected to

fall to 120m. tons (153m.), including 19m. (43m.) in

the US. Forecast trade is unchanged, at 94m. tons

(86m.). EU demand has strengthened, but import forecasts for Mexico and Canada are cut.

RICE: Reflecting a raised official figure for China, the forecast of world rice production in 2010/11 is lifted to a record 452m. tons, the 12m. increase from last year due to larger crops in Asia. While global consumption is increased from before, ending stocks are raised to an eight-year peak of 98.2m. (94.2m). At 30.6m. tons, the forecast of world trade in calendar 2011 is reduced slightly, mostly reflecting a smaller projection of shipments

to the Philippines. However, the total will still be

2% higher than in the previous year.

PROSPECTS FOR PRODUCTION IN 2011/12

After last year’s sharp drop, the global wheat area is projected to rise by about 3%, boosted by higher prices and a return to more normal abandonment rates, especially in Russia. Assuming average yields, production is forecast to rise to 670m. tons (647m.). The outlook for northern hemisphere grains crops generally appears favourable at this early stage, although much will depend on the extent to which growers expand plantings of spring crops, especially maize and barley.

* Wheat and coarse grains ** Argentina, Australia, Canada, EU, Kazakhstan, Russia, Ukraine, US

MAIN MARKET EVENTS SINCE 25 NOVEMBER 2010

6 Dec Philippines: bought 255,000 t feed wheat from Australia 1 Dec- Egypt: GASC: bought 1,045,000 t wheats, incl 8 Jan 445,000 t US, 300,000 t EU (France), 180,000

22 Vietnam: bought feed wheat from Australia

4 Jan Argentina: Ag. Dep.Sec.: due to dryness,

2010 maize crop unlikely to match earlier forecasts

t Argentina and 120,000 t Australia 3 Dec - Bangladesh: bought 300,000 t optional-origin

11

Turkey: TMO bought 300,000 t wheats, incl. 240,000 t US

17

Jan wheat

12

USA: USDA: 2011 winter wheat plantings est.

7

Australia: ABARES: 2010 wheat crop f’cast lifted 1.7m t, to 26.8m (+22%) but rains have delayed harvest and reduced quality

at 16.6m ha (+10%), incl. HRW at 12.0m (+4%) and SRW at 3.1m (+47%) USA: USDA 10/11 f’casts: maize crop cut

Ukraine: Govt. approved extension of grain

export quotas until 31 Mar 2011 10/23 Iraq: bought 500,000 t wheat, incl. 350,000 t

8

 

2.3m t, carryover down 2.2m. Soyabean crop 1.3m lower, stocks down 0.7m. Wheat exports up 1.4m, stocks down 1.1m.

US and 150,000 t Australia 16/28 Jordan: bought 150,000 t feed barley, likely

14

Argentina: BAGE.: 2010 wheat crop estimate at 15.0m t

from Australia

19

China: Traders: COFCO bought at least

16 Dec - Algeria: bought 1.3m t milling wheat and at

150,000 t feed wheat from Australia

17 Jan

least 0.2m t durum

© 2011

GMR 407 – 20 January 2011

CONTENTS AND WEBSITE MENU

(N.B: Text and tables highlighted in blue are available in electronic version only )

GMR COMMENTARY

 

Page no.

   

Page no.

SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN 2010/11 General Wheat Durum Coarse grains Maize (corn) Barley Sorghum Oats Rye

4

RECENT MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Wheat Durum Coarse grains Maize (corn) Barley Other coarse grains (sorghum, oats, rye) Oilseeds Rice Ocean freight rates

13

4

13

4

14

5

14

6

14

6

15

7

15

8

16

8

16

8

17

OUTLOOK FOR PRODUCTION IN 2011/12

9

NATIONAL POLICY AND OTHER DEVELOPMENTS Latest national trade-related measures Other national policy developments Other developments

17

 

17

RICE: SUPPLY AND DEMAND IN 2010/11

10

18

 

19

OILSEEDS: WORLD TRADE Soyabeans Soyameal Rapeseed/canola

12

 

12

MARKET FOCUS Five-year global supply & demand projections

 

12

19

12

to 2015/16 Recent trends in meat trade and impact on grains

20

 

World trade in barley malt

 

TABLES

 
 

Table no.

   

Table no.

GRAINS

 

PRODUCTION

 

SUPPLY AND DEMAND

Total grains (wheat and coarse grains) All wheat Wheat: area,yield, production (summary table) Maize (corn) Barley Sorghum Oats Rye Totals by grain

1

Total grains All wheat Maize (corn) Barley & sorghum Oats & Rye

18A

2

18B

18C

3

18D

4

18E

5

 

6

Durum wheat: Supply and demand/production/trade

19

7

 

8

   

RICE

TRADE

   

Production Trade Rice: main exporters' progress reports Supply and demand Cumulative shipments by destination - All rice

20

Total grains (wheat and coarse grains) All wheat Maize (corn) Barley Sorghum

9

21

10

21A

11

22

12

E

13

 

Oats Rye

14

 

OILSEEDS

15

   
 

Soyabeans: production Rapeseed/canola: production Soyabeans: trade Soyabeans: main exporters' progress reports Soyameal: trade Soyameal: main exporters' progress reports Rapeseed/canola: trade Rapeseed/canola: main exporters' progress reports Cumulative shipments by destination Soyabeans Soyameal Rapeseed/canola

23

Shipments and sales

24

25

Recent reported sales (wheat and coarse grains) Wheat: main exporters' progress reports Maize (corn): main exporters' progress reports Barley: main exporters' progress reports

16

25A

17A

26

17B

26A

17C

27

 

27A

Monthly and quarterly grain shipments Cumulative shipments by destination Wheat Durum wheat Maize (corn) Barley Malt Sorghum Oats

A

F1

B1

F2

B2

F3

B3

 

B4

B5

 

PRICES

B6

   

B7

Weekly export quotations Futures prices Historical volatility IGC wheat price index

28

 

29

EU: licences, import duties and export refunds Export/import licences Import duties TRQ import licences

 

29A

C1

G

C2

 

C3

 

OCEAN FREIGHT RATES

CHINA

 

Selected grain routes

30

Production Trade forecasts Trade progress report Official trade data

D1

 

D2

D3

D4