Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Impact of Biden Presidency on
Asia and Vietnam
Carlyle A. Thayer
November 11, 2020

We request your assessment of the impact of Joe Biden being elected president of the
United States.
Q1. What will be the impact of a Biden presidency on the word and Asia in particular.
ANSWER: The election of Joe Biden as U.S. president will mean an end to the
disruption caused by Donald Trump and his transactional go-it-alone policies that
were grounded on his personal instinct rather than carefully crafted strategy.
As President-elect Biden said, “the U.S. is back.” The U.S. will emphasize
multilateralism, working with allies and partners to address a number of global issues
such as the coronavirus pandemic, climate change, refinancing the World Health
Organisation, reform of the World Trade Organisation, cooperating with the EU and
NATO members and playing a constructive role in the United Nations.
President Biden will engage with ASEAN and ASEAN-led multilateral institutions. He
will most likely attend the annual East Asia Summit and the ASEAN-United States
Summit.
US-China strategic rivalry and competition will continue and focus largely on bilateral
issues such as the trade imbalance, theft of intellectual property, Chinese subsidies to
state-owned enterprises, impediments to U.S. companies doing business in China,
Chinese hacking and espionage. At the same time, the rhetoric will change. Biden will
try to engage China to work together to address global issues (climate change,
coronavirus pandemic, etc.).
Q2. What does a Biden presidency hold for Vietnam?
ANSWER: Biden will engage with Vietnam through the framework of the
comprehensive partnership negotiated by President Obama and enhanced by
President Trump. The Biden Administration is unlikely to threaten sanctions or tariffs
on Vietnam but work pragmatically to tackle outstanding issues through the agreed
Action Plan to address trade issues including impediments to U.S. companies gaining
access to Vietnam’s market and protection of American property rights.
A Biden Administration will continue to view Vietnam as a key partner to address
regional security issues, particularly in the South China Sea. The Biden Administration
will continue to lend support to build up Vietnam’s maritime security capacity and
oppose Chinese bullying and intimidation. A Biden Administration will continue to
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reject the legal basis of Chinese claims in the South China Sea and uphold the 2016
Award of the Arbitral Tribunal in the case brought by the Philippines against China.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Impact of Biden Presidency on Asia and

Vietnam,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, November 11, 2020. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.