Some Aspects of Vision 2030

Conference On Security And Cooperation In South Asia:

A Global Perspective
October 8-10, 2007
Berlin, Germany

Dr Shaukat Hameed Khan

Planning Commission
Government of Pakistan
Islamabad
 Vision 2030

“ Developed, industrialized, just and prosperous Pakistan

through rapid and sustainable development

in a resource constrained economy

by deploying knowledge inputs ”

 The Historical Context for Vision 2030
Playing Catch-up:

Earlier Exercises and Studies

Germany with the UK: ~140 years ago: (Gerschenkron, 1962)

History’s Most Ambitious Benchmarking Exercise: Dec 1871

Meiji Japan’s blueprint for a modern state. (Morishima , 1982

Western Europe and the US:

Concepts of “technological congruence” & “social capability” to
characterize the situation for latecomers (Abramovitz , 1994)

The Pacific Rim Countries …. and now China

 What Can / Should Pakistan Look Like in 2030

Six Themes for Vision 2030

• The Global Imperatives and Societal Transformations
• The Just and Sustainable Society
• The Innovative Society: Knowledge, Technology,
and Competition

• The Prosperous Society

• Macroeconomic Framework
• The State; its institutions and Instruments

Perils of forecasting ! (the 640 K syndrome)

 Global Imperatives

• The Techno-Economic- Knowledge Revolution

• Dispersion of information and technology
• The changing nature of work and the workplace

• Massive Realignment of Economic Activity:

• Economic liberalization •Technological advances

• Capital market developments • Demographic shifts

• Centers of economic activity are shifting profoundly, not

just globally, but also regionally.

• Relocation of manufacturing, services and design activities

 Major Challenges for Pakistan

• Depleting Natural Resources : water, land, energy

• The Demographic Transition

• The 24 / 7 Society

• The city of the future as a self-sustaining unit

• Urban and rural economics ?

• The Looming Global Mono-culture

• Global Race for Talent

 V a lu e U S D , b illio n

500

0
1000
1500
2000
2500
M ach in ery/sem i
m an u factu res

Electro n ics

F u els

C h em icals /
Ph arm aceu ticals

A u to m o tive
Pro d u cts

A g ricu ltu ral

Pro d u cts
Value, USD ( B)
Growth Rate ( %)

C lo th in g &
T extiles
Group

0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
1976 Iro n & Steel

1978 M in erals/O th er
M etals
1980
0
10
20
30
40
50

1982
G ro w th ( p e rc e n t)
1984
Resource Based

1986

1988

1990
Low Tech

1992

1994

1996
The Nature and Scale of the Challenge

1998
1. Composition /Tech. Content of World Trade

Medium Tech

2000
ref: WTO 2006

2002
Hi-Tech

2004
 2. Changing Share of High-technology
in Manufacturing, by Country / Region: 1990–2003
The United States, China, and other Asian countries have Shifted
into high-tech manufacturing more rapidly than the EU and Japan

Asia-8 includes S. Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, Philippines, Malaysia,

Singapore, Indonesia, and India

Source: “SEI 2006” National Science Foundation USA

 3. China’s R&D expenditures relative to those of USA,
Japan, and EU-25 [ 1991–2003 ]

Chinese R&D investment, 1991 to 2003:

Average annual increase >> USA, EU 25 , Japan

Source: “SEI 2006” National Science Foundation USA

 3. Shift in Global Labour Skill Levels

Example: Irish Workforce, Educational Attainments (

%)
1972 1982 1992 2002

Primary 50 36 22 8

Secondary 21 24 28 28

H. Secondary 20 24 29 28

Tertiary 9 16 21 35

Ease of Doing Business: Pakistan ranks at 76 out of 180 countries.

Rankings of the famous BRIC economies?
Brazil at 122, Russia at 106, India at 120, China at 83.
Vietnam is at 91 [ Ref: World Bank, Doing Business 2008 ]
 Bandwidth Connectivity as seen from the USA
Teledensity at present in Pakistan is ~ 45 % of the 160 m population
( over 71 million connections, growing 2.8 – 3.0 m / month )

Behind Europe
6 Yrs: Russia,
L. Am.

7 Yrs: M.E /
SE Asia

10 Yrs: South
Asia

11 Yrs: Cent.
Asia

12 Yrs: Africa

Ref: Rehmatullah et al. Stanford, 2005, The Pinger Project

 Many More Challenges for Pakistan:
A Sample

• The Demographic Transition

• The Habitat and Loss of Diverity : Water, Land,
Climate Change, Food and the Environment

• Food Security

• Urbanisation

• Education and Skills: Shortages, gaps

• Energy and Security: Competition, or cooperation

 Current Population: 160 m
224 - 260 million in 2030 (over 60 % urban)
2005 2030
Male
90-94 Age
75-79
Male
Female
90-94

75-79
Age
Female
Different times of
60-64
45-49
60-64

45-49
peaking
30-34
15-19
30-34

15-19
The demographic
0-4
10 5 0 5 10
0-4
10 5 0 5 10
transition is a unique event
Per cent
Millions China Per cent
Millions
In Pakistan. It has never
Age
90-94
75-79
Male
Female
90-94
75-79
Age Male happened before, and once
Female
60-64 60-64 completed will never
45-49 45-49
30-34 30-34 happen again. We are
15-19 15-19
0-4 0-4
living it now.
10 5 0 5 10
10 5 0 5 10
Per cent India per cent

90-94
Age Male 90-94
Age Male
Rich countries grew rich
Female 75-79
75-79

60-64 60-64
Female before they became old.
45-49 45-49

30-34 30-34

15-19 15-19

0-4 0-4
10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 5.0 10.0
Per cent Per cent
 Pakistan: Most Urbanised Country in S. Asia

• Globally, urban dwellers exceeded those in rural areas

for the first time in human history in 2006 … Shenzen
in China

• Pakistan’s urban population : from 55 m to 135 m (2030)

• More and more settlements will grow into their

equilibrium size – optimal and functional hierarchies

More and more of the economic power is concentrated

in mega-cities with more than 10 million inhabitants
Klaus Klienfeld, CEO Siemens, 2006
 The Looming Water Shortage in Pakistan

Current storage capacity : 9 % of avg annual flows

World average : 40 % of avg annual flows

Year Population (m) Water / Capita (m3)

1951 34 5650
2003 146 1200
2010 168 1000
2030 230 - 260 770 - 680

Efficient Water Use : Ownership, Technology,

Processes , Mindset ?
Climate Change & the Monsoon Model
 The Water Challenge
World’s largest contiguous irrigation system; BUT

• The cropping intensity for major crops in Pakistan:

(twice the 75% assumed in the Indus Basin Treaty)

• Total arable land : 22 million hectares

• 11 % declared ‘disaster area’ because of severe water-

logging and salinity (water table only 0 – 5 feet)

• 20 % under stress (water table 5–10 ft below the surface).

• Overpumping of the aquifers: Islamabad / Rawalpindi :~

water table fell by 1-2 meters/year (1982 to 2000)

• Severe pollution in cotton growing areas

Green Revolution
essentially over
 Food Security / Crop Improvements expected
Changing Dietary Habits !!
• Fed ourselves & exported 1-2 m tons nearly every year
• Case of Cotton from NIAB !

Potential Science Gap ?

T4
Pak- World Gap 55 - 83 %
Output

T3
Pakistani Research, 25-57%
T2

T1 Best Pak. Practice, 31-75%

T0 Current Pakistani Average

Inputs

The gene revolution

 Need to make the accumulation of knowledge and
collective competence the driver of economic growth.
50.0 Possible Enrolment Figures 2002-2030 14.0
in Age Group 17- 23

Enrolment numbers
40.0 12.0
Population, (m),

10.0
30.0
8.0

(m)
20.0 6.0
4.0
10.0
2.0
0.0 0.0
2002 2006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
Population in age group, 17-23
Year
Enrolment stays at present rate of ~4%
Desired Enrolment increase, reaching 8% in 2010 and 20% in 2022
Linear (Enrolment stays at present rate of ~4% )

How do we pay for all this? The Tradition of Waqf? Ref: MTDF 2005-10
 Maintaining the societal infrastructure? OR
Produce more goods, services, food etc etc ?
60.0
48.4 46.9 2003- 20
50.0
TVE enrolment, %

04 10 [Ref: EFA Global

40.0 Monitoring Report,
32.5
31.6
30.0 24.9 4,0 2003-04, except
19.0 Pakistan (Min. of
20.0
13.1 11.4 1.3 Edu. 2006)
8.3
10.0 6.0 3.8
1.0
0.0
lia

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a
nd

l
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an
K

h
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Ir a

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Ko

Ja

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B
er

ai

ki
Fr
us

Sw

al

Pa
Th

gl
itz

S.

M
A

an
Sw

Country

B
25 250.0
Allocation ( Rs billion) Percent
23.5
19.2
20 200.0

(R s b illio n s)
A llo catio n s,
2 1 9 .0
P e rc e n t

15 150.0

Share of Technical 10.5

1 3 3 .5
10 9.5 100.0

6 9 .0
Education as Percent 11.2 8.7
8.2 6.7
of Total Allocation for 5 50.0

2 3 .1
1 3 .8
1 1 .5

3.7
3 .6
0 .3

3.5
1 .4
0 .6

Education 0 0.0

Plan Periods
0

70

0
5
-6

8
-6

-8

-8

-9

-9

-1
-0
-7
5-
55

78

83

88

93
60

05
98
70
96
19
19

19

19

19

19

20
19
19
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t,

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Is

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Pl
Pl

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No
No
 Many More Benchmarks for Pakistan

Some Current Nodes of Excellence in ICT

Sao Paolo …… eBanking
Moscow …… Pattern recognition,
Beijing ……. Speech recognition,
Helsinki/Stockholm ……. Mobile communications,
Seoul ……. LCDs,
Tokyo .…… High density DVDs,
Taiwan .…… Organic LCDs,
Boston ……. Gene diagnostics/distr. storage systems,
Austin ……. Optical networks….

What innovations and centres of excellence

will Pakistan be noted for in 2030?
Unplanned pathways: S&T as change agent
 Energy for Growth: Key National Agenda
Availability, Affordability, Sustainability

¾ Low confidence in market mechanisms

¾ Key Considerations:
• Energy Efficiency / Conservation : ( T&D), Devices
• Environmentally friendly
• State Intervention:
• Diversify the energy mix
• Reduce imports
• Explore & acquire resources
• Help build structures for cooperation

Fossil fuels : Prime source for the foreseeable future

 Energy Profile

¾ Total Primary Energy = 56 MTOE in 2006

360 MTOE by 2030

¾ Power Generation : from 19,540 MW to 162,590 MW

¾ Ratio (primary commercial energy growth rate) : (GDP

growth rate) 1980 - 2005 :: 0.97
2001 - 2006 :: 1.02

¾ Projected energy growth : 7.2 % p.a. up to 2010

8.8 % thereafter
(infrastructure, HRD)

¾ Major Shift Planned: coal, nuclear, and renewables

Ref: Vision 2030 ; Energy Security Plan, 2005

 Pakistan’s Projected GDP Rankings, 2005 – 30
45 Positions Gained Pakistan's GDP Rank At 7%
40
Gr.Rate

35
30 21
23
25 27
31
20 36
39
15
10 18
16
5 12
8
3
0
2005 2010 2015 3020 2025 2030

Ease of Doing Business

Avg. GDP Economy Size
Brazil 122 Gr. Rate Rank PPP
Russia 106 % adjusted
India 120 7.0 21 11
China 83 5.0 26 14
Pakista 76
[ Ref: World Bank, Doing Business 2008 ] 23
 ENERGY SUPPLY MIX, 1993-2006 (MTOE)

Million TOE
35
Gas
30

25

20
Oil
15

10
Primary Electricity (Hydro+Nuclear)
Primary Electricity (Hydro+Nuclear)
5
Coal
LPG
0
1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2006

Fiscal years ending 30th June

24
 ENERGY GAP, MTOE

400 Demand
350
300 Imported Oil
250 Gap
200
150
100
50
Indigenous Supply
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Total Indg. Imported Oil Gap

MTOE
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
INDIGENOUS SUPPLIES 39.38 59.94 66.70 81.85 110.43 153.79
IMPORTED OIL 14.66 18.80 30.33 43.27 55.73 63.55
IMPORTED COAL 1.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00
GRAND TOTAL 54.04 80.74 99.03 127.12 168.16 219.34
DEMAND 53.78 79.55 122.96 176.63 255.37 361.47
25
GAP 0.00 0.81 25.93 51.51 89.21 144.13
 Indigenous Resource Projections

On-
Off-Shore Total
Shore

Total Prospective area (sq. km.) 605,978 221,290 827,268

No of wells drilled (57 years) 1,383 13 1,396

Drilling density *
2.28 .059 1.69
(No. of wells / 1000 Sq.Kms)

*World Avg. Drilling Density (wells/1000 Sq.Kms): ~10

Canada ?
 Energy Resource Potential of Pakistan

Oil , MTOE) Natural Gas Coal, MTOE

(b. barrels) MTOE (Tr. CFT) (b. tonne)

Resource potential 3,622 6,849 82,695

(27) (282) (1850

Proven recoverable 1,023

113 (0.84) 886 (1.98)
reserves (51.532)

Cumulative 72 410 ~89

production, (0.54) (18.714) (~0.20)
Remaining
612 797
recoverable 41 (0.31)
(32.819) (1.78)
reserves
3.2 (66,079 27.9 2.1
Annual production
barrel/day) (1.345) (4.587 m tonne)

Reserves :
13 years 22 years ~ 400 years
production ratio

Ref: Vision 2030

 Indigenous Supply Projections

160 Nuclear
140
Major Gap
120
Begins Renewable
100 Hydel
MTOE

80

60
Coal
40

20 Gas Anticipated
Gas Committed
0
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

OIL
 World’s Largest Coal Reserves, Billions of Tons

Coal Reserves, Billions of Tons

United States 247 India 93
Pakistan 185 Australia 79
Russia 157 Germany 73
China 115

Oil Reserves, Billion Barrels Saudi Arabia + Iran

1 Saudi Arabia 264 = 402 B. Barrels of Oil
2 Canada 179
= Thar Coal Reserves
3 Iran 138
= 850 TCF of Gas
4 Iraq 115
5 Kuwait 101
 The Coal Environment

USA: 100 New Coal Plants, 500 MW avg, capacity

announced during 2000-04
India:
Coal Share:
67% in 2002,
47% in 2032
( ~ 4 x absolute)

16 Jan 2001 8:17:34 hours

 Renewable Energy Numbers only?

Wind: 43,000 MW possible (Gharo, MirpurSakero, Talhar

Sindh) Planned (MW): 880 (2010), 3150 ( 2020), 9700 (
2030)
Solar: S. Pakistan; 2,140 KWh /sq m / year
<54,000 remote homes electrified> solar microwind<

Biofuels: Cars to run on at least 2 fuels ( gasoline,

CNG, ethanol); Biogas plants .

Profitability and Environmental Impact in State of Flux:

• Fuel prices, Feedstock cost /availability, Government
regulation, and Conversion technologies.
• SUBSIDIES
• NOx emissions from bio-diesel?
 Nuclear Matters

Nuclear CAPACITY CUMULATIVE

EXISTING 400 400
ADDITION 2020 2500 2800
ADDITION 2030 6000 8800
* KANUPP retires in 2019

• Global : 53 % energy expansion expected by 2030

( IEA 2006)

• 435 NPPs, 370 GW, 16% of world capacity

• Expansions : OECD, USA, Japan, Asia

• Availability of uranium: Once through ….50 Years?
• Waste, Safety
 Nuclear Concerns

1. Assured Supply vs Proliferation

• More states with NPPs
• Equitrable & Accessible to all potential users

3. NPT and the NSG:

• US-Indian Nuclear Agreement? Energy & Weapons
• National & International Laws: Disregard

3. Role of IAEA
• International Cooperation / legal Framework
• Nuclear Islands
• Int. Nuclear Fuel Centres / Common Reserves
 Energy Mix Plan Projections
Current Short Term Med Term Long Term
2004 2010 2020 2030
Category
MTOE % MTOE % MTOE % MTOE %
50.8 100 79.4 100 177.4 100 361.3 100

Oil 15.2 30 20.7 26 45.5 25.7 66.8 18.5

Natural
25.5 50 39.0 49 77.9 44 162.6 45.0
gas
Coal 3.3 6.5 7.2 9 24.8 14.0 68.7 19.0

Hydro 6.4 12.7 11.0 13.9 21.4 12.1 38.9 10.8

Renewable 0.00 0.0 0.8 1.1 3.00 1.7 9.2 2.5

4.81
Nuclear 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.9 2.7 15.1 4.2
 Regional Energy Demand Projections

• Growth rate of primary commercial energy:

• China: For 2000-2005, the average was 9.96 per cent

(slightly higher than the GDP growth rate of 9.5 per
cent p.a)

• India : ~ 4.5 % p.a projected up 20 2032 ( Kakodkar,

2004)

Issues: Greater dependence on fewer suppliers

Risk of disruptions in transit
Major investments in both producing
and consuming countries
 Mitigating Vulnerable Supply Routes

Maritime route to Shanghai [14,000 KM] = about

16 days…. << Choke Point : Malacca Straits >>
• 50% of Chinese oil imports come from the M. East.
• 80% passes through Malacca Straits
• Future World Supplies dependent on M.E. heavy crude Oil

Oil
Gas Kra Canal
Maritime •2 lanes 120 km, NELTI
TRACECA
•2
Energy / Trade Corridor b tons/year,
KRA
• 250,000 ton North -South Corridor

ships Trans Sibirean Corridor

Gas Projects, Pakistan as Energy Hub
g

Disputed
Territory

37
UG / BOI
Thank You