MODELOS Y SIMULACION

LAURA KARINA QUINTERO STRUSS

ESTUDIANTE

Grupo 22

GUSTAVO ANDRES ARAQUE

TUTOR

UNIVERSIDAD NACIONAL ABIERTA Y A DISTANCIA UNAD

15 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2020
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 Establecer tres columnas de 200 números aleatorios aplicando un tratamiento según fórmula de Excel para co
UNIFORME graficar cada columna. Teniendo en cuenta para los correspondientes casos los siguientes datos: M
uniforme de un rango de 1 a 50.

media 50 distribucion normal

desviacion estandar 5 media 50
rango 1 50 Des.vest 5
Datos 200

Este gráfico no está disponible en su versión de Excel.

Si edita esta forma o guarda el libro en un formato de archivo

diferente, el gráfico no se podrá utilizar.

1 48.0850665
2 52.607883
3 56.8147268
4 56.0276982
5 51.2960488
6 46.630415
7 46.3428667
8 49.7240125
9 46.1212961
10 47.375412
11 54.6778521
12 45.729241
13 50.3723153
14 46.4798401
15 46.6733805
16 52.8006226
17 54.4301231
18 45.3649428
19 47.722203
20 51.425724
21 46.278179
22 57.175227
23 32.7737036
24 42.9333605
25 57.3868265
26 42.7968843
27 49.1490969
28 55.1523249
29 45.3655698
30 46.8473966
31 44.3599127
32 52.1635942
33 60.4037701
34 51.0097049
35 42.0184649
36 45.7160693
37 48.6053702
38 54.7033805
39 52.3720119
40 37.7260928
41 50.4754343
42 36.6039527
43 51.0617593
44 50.6289268
45 49.8926817
46 55.216352
47 54.0505071
48 55.1630396
49 52.8597374
50 53.1469311
51 49.976785
52 50.2130533
53 41.4349278
54 44.6498496
55 50.4838085
56 43.8268453
57 49.8526484
58 42.4472341
59 48.6044325
60 49.6086085
61 47.5123032
 62 50.0591755
63 48.3314839
64 61.1510681
65 43.0618455
66 46.5379976
67 50.9548387
68 45.7395098
69 45.6748034
70 53.1541539
71 51.5885555
72 50.4402963
73 48.5385808
74 48.1568642
75 49.9595953
76 51.0485024
77 42.4339269
78 52.2909428
79 46.0370414
80 41.2229143
81 46.5642913
82 48.336213
83 51.0289857
84 47.0969215
85 45.7430702
86 41.3657837
87 44.6997265
88 52.1586795
89 42.9139991
90 53.3043863
91 53.6575069
92 41.2617219
93 52.9226825
94 45.2485813
95 48.9621445
96 58.5911079
97 47.0061276
98 41.8999867
99 45.9866534
100 44.1642418
101 54.3040585
102 51.2068475
103 47.3155343
104 47.5215138
105 48.8544854
106 60.3143632
107 54.4606383
108 49.9695151
109 45.3063952
110 57.8087611
111 44.2176167
112 47.0211953
113 54.0023059
114 51.0393117
115 52.7702952
116 42.7309484
117 55.0589867
118 50.649488
119 56.4839101
120 44.6045127
121 47.1011495
122 41.998613
123 32.726878
124 47.5612711
125 46.0388313
126 51.3565177
127 48.6593702
128 56.0259262
129 50.3631124
130 46.3244232
131 49.0760794
132 59.2779878
133 47.6481019
134 49.9129346
135 48.6078777
136 43.5645608
137 43.6564858
138 53.5752655
139 51.3979126
140 49.8992543
141 43.4527003
142 38.8172249
143 44.5243309
144 47.9282881
145 63.4050065
146 58.3754882
147 52.2882013
148 46.6145279
149 56.5774504
150 51.3543198
151 48.3413751
152 52.7694133
153 45.7563529
154 45.3233533
155 49.8538815
156 45.5937445
157 43.6167218
158 48.838423
159 42.9366176
160 47.1341779
161 54.3828393
162 56.8835365
163 46.051796
164 53.8841579
165 52.483306
166 56.3036743
167 49.2353205
168 51.3514416
169 52.3155001
170 40.0138882
171 51.8598806
172 54.8255324
173 52.2900425
174 54.1490311
175 53.0430081
176 53.2304654
177 47.0312573
178 50.9407853
179 40.0138882
180 36.2677407
181 38.4452646
182 47.8750221
183 53.9738883
184 47.7433307
185 49.9708767
186 47.1089681
187 51.1259237
188 54.7035106
189 40.6654195
190 50.3809655
191 58.4571438
192 45.1663997
193 54.5286567
194 60.2624337
195 47.7407781
196 46.5546273
197 50.6832297
198 50.9314886
199 51.097932
200 50.8343419
to según fórmula de Excel para comportamiento NORMAL, EXPONENCIAL Y
entes casos los siguientes datos: Media=50; Desviación Estándar =5; Para la
ango de 1 a 50.

bucion normal Distribucion Exponencial Distribucion Uniforme

media 50 limite superior
limite inferior

Este gráfico no está disponible en su versión d

versión de Excel.
n un formato de archivo
ar.
Este gráfico no está disponible en su versión de Excel.
Si edita esta forma o guarda el libro en un for
Si edita esta forma o guarda el libro en un formato de
archivo diferente, el gráfico no se podrá utiliz
archivo diferente, el gráfico no se podrá utilizar.

1 7.1442807 1 40.290914
2 122.816314 2 8.37143612
3 76.9206501 3 42.180673
4 46.9819761 4 6.70513522
5 42.354647 5 24.9142966
6 62.6726436 6 43.9695733
7 65.7204897 7 11.313939
8 10.5390268 8 27.2666162
9 37.7635767 9 23.9377363
10 34.2601815 10 17.2858959
11 46.422857 11 35.2880477
12 50.4252877 12 5.39094714
13 2.42920398 13 47.5487717
14 50.4116248 14 31.286372
15 8.80344018 15 3.68915332
16 50.0438263 16 20.2573881
17 81.0846505 17 40.244143
18 24.451633 18 27.1620283
19 8.49848685 19 44.7006211
20 76.3904328 20 48.2378048
21 6.17004856 21 4.9472281
22 1.9464622 22 28.2848597
23 50.9669572 23 11.4181899
24 44.3345052 24 21.6672467
25 2.29999879 25 30.5443091
26 14.5588561 26 37.8945636
27 49.5678285 27 10.2138989
28 16.5270627 28 15.8004515
29 8.08871283 29 8.73888806
30 95.858786 30 32.9940685
31 125.561523 31 16.9167419
32 7.02071736 32 8.2340207
33 14.0150203 33 17.3552303
34 27.7032963 34 21.9933192
35 33.3523179 35 38.1021373
36 2.53253043 36 12.3804121
37 29.7973023 37 37.7625093
38 41.3724346 38 20.681375
39 153.484031 39 2.84519872
40 137.254249 40 44.9708795
41 134.106824 41 16.875252
42 22.2510363 42 45.52866
43 8.86414691 43 42.2889237
44 91.1510947 44 2.03248682
45 0.98616526 45 44.7256079
46 116.721578 46 36.1058966
47 39.4053704 47 39.95641
48 16.2406135 48 31.7752646
49 27.4938991 49 10.1484254
50 10.6543352 50 42.1957748
51 5.91661992 51 12.9980641
52 16.7170197 52 7.29934642
53 24.0865119 53 17.2238419
54 12.188753 54 40.244143
55 12.8902082 55 27.1126325
56 7.73794792 56 34.6080846
57 71.4082025 57 31.6780377
58 141.580609 58 3.09463024
59 50.326913 59 27.6627253
60 2.91912953 60 14.6977197
61 26.7554016 61 35.8938428
 62 29.7154069 62 27.6632049
63 12.9763939 63 2.56518986
64 15.3443636 64 35.0391379
65 36.4895721 65 39.0857707
66 9.20138058 66 12.1460931
67 12.8314042 67 16.1207445
68 77.0312023 68 16.7463064
69 130.020711 69 11.742895
70 16.3664052 70 20.9317096
71 4.84795357 71 48.7627824
72 15.277801 72 49.4450077
73 4.18169341 73 41.6241382
74 49.8358576 74 32.4582543
75 45.6079939 75 3.03829535
76 10.4065706 76 19.1273665
77 8.11442288 77 6.53273296
78 6.05513744 78 10.660093
79 18.3899025 79 25.1889163
80 7.02767308 80 38.5585049
81 38.565326 81 41.500128
82 8.5856959 82 33.087394
83 4.87915932 83 12.8751614
84 18.9853702 84 15.0955722
85 9.96683441 85 11.7811087
86 1.15183752 86 38.1021373
87 18.2681138 87 37.8760003
88 26.9331324 88 29.0439257
89 4.63944836 89 12.708048
90 22.1296298 90 7.98478267
91 109.326943 91 27.6117518
92 12.0177325 92 26.7200546
93 11.2227092 93 7.41484366
94 29.6224455 94 27.9280189
95 146.959925 95 33.4632892
96 27.6054508 96 5.84769407
97 7.09906201 97 36.3411233
98 146.959925 98 49.7796893
99 86.0427159 99 46.5641095
100 201.480349 100 2.08665866
101 4.1878395 101 16.9749619
102 91.1559319 102 25.2925115
103 51.5934294 103 2.66516208
104 39.994889 104 30.9162693
105 47.9351965 105 35.8005438
106 17.4026925 106 5.1822199
107 180.366571 107 1.15323922
108 14.5882449 108 15.3713592
109 54.5523972 109 47.1198671
110 13.5913023 110 19.6962258
111 164.976745 111 16.5497785
112 1.37838624 112 9.46004527
113 107.861714 113 27.5610067
114 34.6458392 114 35.0023808
115 11.6717425 115 20.2151218
116 8.25462807 116 23.6284744
117 9.64617599 117 33.1007379
118 48.6369746 118 22.100105
119 21.9335159 119 8.50892498
120 8.78001837 120 19.5813425
121 109.076627 121 45.7893484
122 41.511322 122 4.4954219
123 6.75382503 123 6.52340527
124 16.0510847 124 38.5947194
125 22.911164 125 18.5114204
126 59.7481164 126 41.6234482
127 0.40553743 127 42.8259153
128 12.7873999 128 32.3851893
129 101.156351 129 28.5044534
130 17.1891358 130 28.2393135
131 69.1965077 131 16.7204143
132 32.905353 132 8.61345336
133 17.430665 133 18.7078133
134 3.19623272 134 32.9579992
135 26.9263642 135 4.60291717
136 84.381281 136 33.4608918
137 26.1492143 137 32.7428918
138 69.0092774 138 30.5523826
139 68.5628947 139 14.1572932
140 46.5544859 140 39.4805859
141 116.863766 141 13.2983325
142 29.35627 142 2.42905704
143 27.1199017 143 45.7484897
144 89.1487094 144 28.6964538
145 10.3390429 145 30.0076406
146 0.15716048 146 21.172286
147 93.9431414 147 18.3289763
148 130.490467 148 36.3477855
149 55.8579215 149 7.38509449
150 42.6679535 150 36.1294037
151 99.3259795 151 22.2710463
152 5.86948306 152 44.4391142
153 2.30146227 153 45.0184642
154 9.21519264 154 16.2138964
155 42.9837249 155 10.34003
156 27.5241616 156 35.5476265
157 36.7344213 157 12.9691343
158 63.3637529 158 26.2936425
159 20.6216553 159 37.8256867
160 18.5269917 160 4.16675098
161 27.7141921 161 22.3144756
162 3.90413712 162 39.9712333
163 50.670049 163 16.0275379
164 25.2414654 164 31.797187
165 29.2043303 165 15.2732921
166 8.62654325 166 25.3228002
167 60.2406979 167 22.9650512
168 44.5583257 168 48.1440273
169 151.805034 169 32.1665973
170 24.4562155 170 37.1387017
171 126.893589 171 12.3546029
172 13.1576847 172 10.7788947
173 135.806 173 46.4018941
174 9.85015667 174 36.7635978
175 26.886097 175 15.563197
176 17.5026444 176 15.3484851
177 56.820015 177 34.2554748
178 126.893589 178 35.4008376
179 35.4071873 179 5.4402905
180 86.3206987 180 24.096016
181 84.9089135 181 5.60288659
182 107.244993 182 27.9546287
183 11.1254178 183 48.2832628
184 50.5664787 184 43.1947342
185 7.71852661 185 47.7119
186 99.7417938 186 8.47303811
187 100.436127 187 14.7791082
188 56.04315 188 1.83471256
189 66.4159457 189 4.26269056
190 30.8192614 190 49.104497
191 13.1907476 191 24.9834684
192 57.0892576 192 30.3998073
193 61.7929271 193 1.63565264
194 17.8882583 194 25.6404407
195 170.338423 195 14.5621196
196 137.000248 196 27.6041683
197 3.38603095 197 28.4298377
198 75.1303255 198 44.8342742
199 19.6295498 199 13.0267594
200 38.0259779 200 47.9702691
bucion Uniforme
50
1

o está disponible en su versión de Excel.

orma o guarda el libro en un formato de

nte, el gráfico no se podrá utilizar.
 4. Desarrollar el siguiente caso estableciendo una simulación en Excel:
Se desea simular la llegada y descarga de barcos en un muelle para determinar el número
promedio de barcos que se retrasan para ser descargados al siguiente día, los datos para
realizar la simulación son los siguientes:

Barcos que
Barcos que
lse
llegan por Probabilidad Probabilidad
descargan
día
por día
0 15% 1 7%
1 18% 2 13%
2 14% 3 45%
3 21% 4 22%
4 18% 5 13%
5 14%

Considerando un valor (Alfa = 0.10); y un error de 0,5 barcos.

Determine:
a.       Modelo de simulación de 30 días de operación incluyendo grafico de estabilidad.

Barcos que
Barcos que Barcos que
lse
llegan por Probabilidad De A llegan por
día día descargan
por día
0 15% 0 0.15 0 1
1 18% 0.15 0.33 1 2
2 14% 0.33 0.47 2 3
3 21% 0.47 0.68 3 4
4 18% 0.68 0.86 4 5
5 14% 0.86 1 5

Barcos que
Barcos del dia Numero Barcos que numero lse Total barcos Cantidad de
Dia llegan por aleatorio
anterior aleatorio descargan a descargar barcos
día descargados
por día

1 0 0.79329457 4 0.73955998 4 4 4
2 0 0.08636015 0 0.04231059 1 0 0
3 0 0.25435883 1 0.08438413 2 1 1
4 0 0.47138147 3 0.63959927 3 3 3
 5 0 0.19871733 1 0.81481312 4 1 1
6 0 0.50773323 3 0.8393277 4 3 3
7 0 0.25519014 1 0.37955162 3 1 1
8 0 0.54562044 3 0.6610894 4 3 3
9 0 0.56851472 3 0.93771218 5 3 3
10 0 0.26575328 1 0.01242875 1 1 1
11 0 0.68651334 4 0.95171577 5 4 4
12 0 0.07363605 0 0.42162848 3 0 0
13 0 0.6798448 3 0.82327034 4 3 3
14 0 0.77104369 4 0.32197733 3 4 3
15 1 0.37063791 2 0.26089332 3 3 3
16 0 0.79642757 4 0.19511557 2 4 2
17 2 0.10926517 0 0.18139201 2 2 2
18 0 0.49901393 3 0.95062556 5 3 3
19 0 0.71473296 4 0.29869884 3 4 3
20 1 0.95106212 5 0.46395003 3 6 3
21 3 0.93167272 5 0.71819109 4 8 4
22 4 0.46532873 2 0.54625722 3 6 3
23 3 0.30064077 1 0.57613958 3 4 3
24 1 0.94689593 5 0.43839787 3 6 3
25 3 0.16213008 1 0.11974921 2 4 2
26 2 0.37348141 2 0.30239497 3 4 3
27 1 0.03991949 0 0.82894566 4 1 1
28 0 0.81300544 4 0.33237131 3 4 3
29 1 0.00159885 0 0.33050551 3 1 1
30 0 0.99274072 5 0.04911116 1 5 1
 Barcos que
lse
Probabilidad De A
descargan
por día
7% 0 0.07 1
13% 0.07 0.2 2
45% 0.2 0.65 3
22% 0.65 0.87 4
13% 0.87 1 5

Estadistico
promedio 1
Des.vest 1.306
Chart Title
barcos barcos 1.0
pendientes pendientes
a descargar a descargar 0.9
siguiente dia siguiente dia 0.8
0.7
0 0.0
0.6
0 0.0
0.5
0 0.0
0.4
0 0.0
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2
 0.6
0.5
0.4
0.3
0 0.0
0.2
0 0.0
0.1
0 0.0
0 0.0 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2
0 0.0
0 0.0
0 0.0
Al oprimir f9 vemos que la cantidad de barcos en espera pa
0 0.0 no superan los 2,5 barcos y sin embargo no se estabiliza lo
0 0.0 debe hacer una corrida con mas numero de
1 0.1
0 0.1
2 0.2
0 0.2
0 0.2
1 0.2
3 0.4
4 0.5
3 0.6
1 0.7
3 0.8
2 0.8
1 0.8
0 0.8
1 0.8
0 0.8
4 0.9
 b.      Calculo del número de corridas necesarias para estabilizar la vari
datos para el minitad
Estadistico como se observa en la grafica de minitad s
comportamiento de normalidad dado que
promedio 1 intervalos de confi
Des.vest 1.022
Chart Title
barcos
pendientes
a descargar
siguiente dia

1
2
2
3

10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
 3
3
2
10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 3
3
3
3
cantidad de barcos en espera para el siguiente dia
sin embargo no se estabiliza lo que implica que se 2
na corrida con mas numero de dias. 2
2
2
2
2 longitud de corida
2
2
2
2 la longitud de corida varia desde los 40 hasta
2 una longitud de corrida de 96 para e
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
2
ecesarias para estabilizar la variable de interés.

bserva en la grafica de minitad se demuestra que no tiene un

miento de normalidad dado que los datos estan fuera de los
intervalos de confianza.
 68.2298851

corida varia desde los 40 hasta las 200 se tomara

ongitud de corrida de 96 para el punto c.
 Barcos que
Barcos que
lse
llegan por Probabilidad Probabilidad
descargan
día
por día
0 15% 1 7%
1 18% 2 13%
2 14% 3 45%
3 21% 4 22%
4 18% 5 13%
5 14%

Considerando un valor (Alfa = 0.10); y un error de 0,5 barcos.

Determine:
c.       Adecuar el número de corridas según el caso del modelo del punto a.
longitud de corrida 96

Barcos que
Barcos que Tiempo
lse
llegan por Probabilidad De A entre fallas
día (Horas) descargan
por día
0 15% 0 0.15 0 1
1 18% 0.15 0.33 1 2
2 14% 0.33 0.47 2 3
3 21% 0.47 0.68 3 4
4 18% 0.68 0.86 4 5
5 14% 0.86 1 5

Barcos que
Barcos del Numero Barcos que numero lse Total barcos Cantidad de
Dia llegan por aleatorio
dia anterior aleatorio descargan a descargar barcos
día descargados
por día

1 0 0.77055318 4 0.65483148 4 4 4
2 0 0.4281641 2 0.50481028 3 2 2
3 0 0.85423726 4 0.6968575 4 4 4
4 0 0.37967631 2 0.60125536 3 2 2
 5 0 0.46045665 2 0.02832454 1 2 1
6 1 0.65657319 3 0.44108269 3 4 3
7 1 0.59783864 3 0.49810884 3 4 3
8 1 0.5030139 3 0.19569424 2 4 2
9 2 0.04496476 0 0.16287169 2 2 2
10 0 0.08134467 0 0.53580854 3 0 0
11 0 0.61342153 3 0.33766261 3 3 3
12 0 0.98186546 5 0.18517294 2 5 2
13 3 0.58945013 3 0.59210759 3 6 3
14 3 0.13769801 0 0.5378037 3 3 3
15 0 0.18914977 1 0.19287191 2 1 1
16 0 0.88435471 5 0.3338253 3 5 3
17 2 0.63304986 3 0.20072101 3 5 3
18 2 0.23109573 1 0.16550922 2 3 2
19 1 0.91962377 5 0.05739922 1 6 1
20 5 0.39991202 2 0.9408873 5 7 5
21 2 0.87297962 5 0.90818109 5 7 5
22 2 0.68776075 4 0.75792261 4 6 4
23 2 0.0417521 0 0.92705369 5 2 2
24 0 0.81435697 4 0.98734064 5 4 4
25 0 0.93014377 5 0.43366564 3 5 3
26 2 0.28472866 1 0.30553625 3 3 3
27 0 0.3874629 2 0.0913414 2 2 2
28 0 0.75809537 4 0.38004962 3 4 3
29 1 0.46152563 2 0.27181186 3 3 3
30 0 0.72380998 4 0.75615343 4 4 4
31 0 0.6863494 4 0.9300368 5 4 4
32 0 0.25843741 1 0.52720197 3 1 1
33 0 0.87708874 5 0.33875623 3 5 3
34 2 0.2883558 1 0.20334508 3 3 3
35 0 0.88360354 5 0.55807779 3 5 3
36 2 0.27899647 1 0.37741416 3 3 3
37 0 0.67352606 3 0.12725179 2 3 2
38 1 0.70447534 4 0.12725723 2 5 2
39 3 0.65692198 3 0.75656225 4 6 4
40 2 0.0972206 0 0.62175727 3 2 2
41 0 0.3648373 2 0.0969778 2 2 2
42 0 0.18420776 1 0.81123724 4 1 1
43 0 0.14725851 0 0.76082854 4 0 0
44 0 0.33714868 2 0.83507746 4 2 2
45 0 0.63346268 3 0.92508914 5 3 3
46 0 0.99297267 5 0.33001257 3 5 3
47 2 0.5894334 3 0.87095617 5 5 5
48 0 0.54395231 3 0.83842671 4 3 3
49 0 0.64276834 3 0.62884395 3 3 3
50 0 0.85981281 4 0.8354576 4 4 4
51 0 0.09081167 0 0.02870213 1 0 0
52 0 0.95027694 5 0.79832963 4 5 4
53 1 0.16010059 1 0.34370082 3 2 2
54 0 0.08192588 0 0.18255417 2 0 0
55 0 0.08766018 0 0.98218116 5 0 0
56 0 0.83670473 4 0.28882338 3 4 3
57 1 0.2716524 1 0.49785765 3 2 2
58 0 0.41664785 2 0.91195188 5 2 2
59 0 0.18051287 1 0.17213114 2 1 1
60 0 0.84259311 4 0.41546737 3 4 3
61 1 0.61255751 3 0.61257839 3 4 3
62 1 0.83840737 4 0.65999483 4 5 4
63 1 0.84205631 4 0.87181257 5 5 5
64 0 0.34121261 2 0.13298639 2 2 2
65 0 0.44295069 2 0.69736314 4 2 2
66 0 0.56062284 3 0.2614851 3 3 3
67 0 0.43920062 2 0.51872056 3 2 2
68 0 0.19854208 1 0.62161789 3 1 1
69 0 0.25832016 1 0.89762264 5 1 1
70 0 0.91189309 5 0.72939515 4 5 4
71 1 0.59797216 3 0.75362415 4 4 4
72 0 0.14537651 0 0.99625288 5 0 0
73 0 0.03248062 0 0.74854385 4 0 0
74 0 0.05720792 0 0.57176214 3 0 0
75 0 0.68802377 4 0.48210645 3 4 3
76 1 0.63260978 3 0.95889304 5 4 4
77 0 0.12522636 0 0.4653917 3 0 0
78 0 0.57005449 3 0.07766443 2 3 2
79 1 0.36791976 2 0.29992709 3 3 3
80 0 0.8904803 5 0.87780264 5 5 5
81 0 0.15939592 1 0.49220471 3 1 1
82 0 0.11980357 0 0.90167701 5 0 0
83 0 0.35343493 2 0.54611481 3 2 2
84 0 0.83668191 4 0.6092828 3 4 3
85 1 0.75611009 4 0.40244163 3 5 3
86 2 0.20206518 1 0.58023247 3 3 3
87 0 0.49125177 3 0.15983107 2 3 2
88 1 0.27039185 1 0.54465006 3 2 2
89 0 0.19044651 1 0.37429666 3 1 1
90 0 0.17135178 1 0.26317204 3 1 1
91 0 0.2931494 1 0.38409482 3 1 1
92 0 0.06589841 0 0.08931745 2 0 0
93 0 0.74187451 4 0.37159694 3 4 3
94 1 0.09261932 0 0.47872928 3 1 1
95 0 0.48286557 3 0.46737374 3 3 3
96 0 0.80404469 4 0.4205347 3 4 3
 e.      Establecer conclusiones y recomendaciones del caso, por cada integrante del grupo.

Barcos que
lse
Probabilidad De A
descargan
por día
7% 0 0.07 1
13% 0.07 0.2 2
45% 0.2 0.65 3
22% 0.65 0.87 4
13% 0.87 1 5

Estadistico
promedio 1 Al oprimir f9 vemos que la cantidad de barcos en espera pa
no superan los 2,5 barcos y sin embargo no se estabiliza lo
Des.vest 0.948 debe hacer una corrida con mas numero de

barcos barcos
pendientes pendientes
a descargar a descargar
siguiente dia siguiente dia
barcos pendientes a descargar
0 0.0
1.4
0 0.0
0 0.0 1.2
0 0.0
1.0

0.8

0.6
 1.4

1.2

1.0
1 0.2
1 0.3 0.8
1 0.4
0.6
2 0.6
0 0.6 0.4
0 0.5
0.2
0 0.5
3 0.7 0.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2
3 0.8
0 0.8
0 0.7
2 0.8
2 0.9
1 0.9
5 1.1
2 1.2
2 1.2
2 1.2
0 1.2
0 1.1
2 1.2
0 1.1
0 1.1
1 1.1
0 1.0
0 1.0
0 1.0
0 0.9
2 1.0
0 0.9
2 1.0
0 0.9
1 0.9
3 1.0
2 1.0
0 1.0
0 1.0
0 1.0
0 0.9
0 0.9
0 0.9
2 0.9
0 0.9
0 0.9
0 0.9
0 0.8
0 0.8
1 0.8
0 0.8
0 0.8
0 0.8
1 0.8
0 0.8
0 0.8
0 0.7
1 0.8
1 0.8
1 0.8
0 0.7
0 0.7
0 0.7
0 0.7
0 0.7
0 0.7
0 0.7
1 0.7
0 0.7
0 0.7
0 0.7
0 0.6
1 0.7
0 0.6
0 0.6
1 0.6
0 0.6
0 0.6
0 0.6
0 0.6
0 0.6
1 0.6
2 0.6
0 0.6
1 0.6
0 0.6
0 0.6
0 0.6
0 0.6
0 0.6
1 0.6
0 0.6
0 0.6
1 0.6
 d.      Generar 15 corridas del modelo y calcular el intervalo de c

Estadistico
cantidad de barcos en espera para el siguiente dia promedio 1 4 1
sin embargo no se estabiliza lo que implica que se
na corrida con mas numero de dias. Des.vest 1.470 4.944 1.598

Corrida 1 Corrida 2 Corrida 3

s pendientes a descargar siguiente dia

1.0 0.0 2.0
0.5 0.0 3.5
1.0 0.0 3.0
1.8 0.0 2.8
 2.2 0.0 2.4
2.5 0.0 2.2
2.6 0.1 1.9
2.4 0.5 1.6
2.2 0.9 1.4
2.2 1.2 1.3
2.0 1.6 1.2
8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30
1.8 2.3 1.2
1.7 2.7 1.3
1.6 2.9 1.2
1.5 3.0 1.2
1.4 3.2 1.1
1.3 3.4 1.3
1.2 3.4 1.2
1.2 3.5 1.2
1.1 3.7 1.1
1.0 3.7 1.0
1.0 3.9 1.0
1.0 4.2 1.0
0.9 4.5 1.0
0.9 4.8 0.9
0.8 5.0 0.9
0.8 5.3 1.0
0.8 5.5 1.1
0.8 5.7 1.2
0.7 6.0 1.2
0.7 6.3 1.2
0.7 6.5 1.2
0.7 6.7 1.2
0.7 6.9 1.1
0.7 7.2 1.1
0.8 7.5 1.1
0.8 7.7 1.1
0.8 7.8 1.0
0.8 8.0 1.0
0.8 8.1 1.0
0.7 8.1 1.0
0.7 8.2 1.0
0.7 8.1 1.0
0.8 8.0 0.9
0.8 7.9 0.9
0.8 7.8 0.9
0.8 7.7 0.9
0.8 7.7 0.9
0.8 7.7 0.9
0.8 7.6 0.9
0.9 7.5 0.9
0.8 7.4 0.9
0.8 7.4 0.9
0.8 7.3 0.9
0.9 7.3 0.9
0.9 7.2 1.0
0.8 7.1 1.0
0.8 7.0 1.0
0.8 6.9 1.1
0.8 6.9 1.1
0.9 6.8 1.2
0.9 6.7 1.2
0.9 6.6 1.3
0.8 6.5 1.3
0.8 6.4 1.3
0.9 6.3 1.3
0.9 6.3 1.3
0.9 6.2 1.3
0.9 6.1 1.3
0.9 6.0 1.4
1.0 5.9 1.4
1.0 5.9 1.4
1.0 5.8 1.4
1.0 5.7 1.5
1.0 5.7 1.5
1.1 5.6 1.4
1.1 5.5 1.4
1.1 5.5 1.4
1.1 5.4 1.4
1.1 5.3 1.4
1.1 5.3 1.4
1.1 5.2 1.4
1.0 5.1 1.3
1.0 5.1 1.3
1.0 5.0 1.3
1.0 5.0 1.3
1.0 4.9 1.3
1.0 4.9 1.3
1.0 4.8 1.4
1.1 4.8 1.4
1.1 4.7 1.4
1.2 4.7 1.3
1.2 4.6 1.3
1.2 4.6 1.4
1.1 4.5 1.4
1.1 4.5 1.4
 9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81 85 89 93

Corrida 1 Corrida 2 Corrida 3 Corrida 4 Corrida 5

Corrida 6 Corrida 7 Corrida 8 Corrida 9 Corrida 10
odelo y calcular el intervalo de confianza.
Corrida 11 Corrida 12 Corrida 13 Corrida 14 Corrida 15

2 1 3 1 2 1 2 2
1.919 1.093 3.839 1.181 3.121 2.294 1.868 2.504

Corrida 4 Corrida 5 Corrida 6 Corrida 7 Corrida 8 Corrida 9 Corrida 10 Corrida 11

0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

0.0 1.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
0.3 1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0
0.5 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8 0.3
0.4 2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.6 0.6
0.3 2.3 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 1.8 0.5
0.6 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 0.3 1.6 0.4
0.9 1.8 0.0 0.0 0.9 0.3 1.5 0.4
1.1 1.6 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 1.7 0.6
1.3 1.4 0.3 0.2 1.0 0.3 1.6 0.7
1.3 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.4 1.5 0.6
1.3 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.3 1.6 0.7
1.2 1.3 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.5 1.6 0.8
1.1 1.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 0.6 1.8 1.0
1.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.9 0.5 1.7 1.1
1.1 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.5 1.6 1.2
1.1 1.1 0.9 0.4 0.8 0.5 1.6 1.5
1.1 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.8 0.4 1.7 1.6
1.0 1.0 1.7 0.5 0.8 0.5 1.8 1.6
1.0 1.0 2.2 0.7 0.8 0.6 2.0 1.7
1.0 1.0 2.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 2.1 1.7
1.1 1.1 3.1 0.7 0.7 0.5 2.3 1.7
1.2 1.2 3.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 2.3 1.7
1.3 1.2 4.0 0.6 0.6 0.7 2.5 1.6
1.4 1.2 4.2 0.7 0.6 0.8 2.4 1.6
1.5 1.1 4.3 0.8 0.6 0.8 2.4 1.6
1.5 1.1 4.4 0.9 0.7 0.7 2.5 1.6
1.5 1.0 4.5 1.0 0.9 0.8 2.6 1.6
1.6 1.0 4.6 0.9 0.8 0.9 2.7 1.6
1.8 1.0 4.7 0.9 0.8 1.1 2.7 1.6
1.9 1.0 4.7 0.9 0.8 1.3 2.7 1.5
2.0 1.0 4.8 0.8 0.8 1.4 2.8 1.5
2.1 1.0 4.8 0.8 0.8 1.5 2.8 1.5
2.1 0.9 4.8 0.8 0.7 1.7 2.7 1.4
2.1 0.9 4.8 0.8 0.7 1.8 2.6 1.4
2.1 0.9 4.9 0.9 0.7 1.9 2.6 1.4
2.1 0.9 4.9 0.9 0.8 2.1 2.6 1.4
2.1 0.9 5.0 0.9 0.8 2.2 2.5 1.3
2.2 0.8 5.1 1.0 0.7 2.4 2.4 1.3
2.2 0.8 5.2 1.0 0.7 2.6 2.4 1.3
2.2 0.8 5.3 1.0 0.8 2.6 2.4 1.3
2.2 0.8 5.3 1.0 0.8 2.6 2.3 1.4
2.1 0.8 5.4 1.0 0.7 2.5 2.3 1.4
2.1 0.8 5.4 0.9 0.7 2.5 2.2 1.4
2.1 0.8 5.5 0.9 0.7 2.4 2.2 1.3
2.1 0.7 5.6 0.9 0.7 2.4 2.2 1.3
2.1 0.7 5.7 1.0 0.7 2.3 2.2 1.3
2.1 0.7 5.7 0.9 0.7 2.3 2.2 1.3
2.0 0.7 5.7 0.9 0.7 2.2 2.2 1.3
2.0 0.7 5.6 1.0 0.7 2.2 2.3 1.4
2.0 0.7 5.5 0.9 0.7 2.2 2.2 1.5
2.0 0.7 5.5 0.9 0.8 2.1 2.2 1.7
1.9 0.7 5.5 0.9 0.8 2.1 2.1 1.8
1.9 0.6 5.5 0.9 0.8 2.0 2.1 2.0
1.9 0.6 5.4 0.9 0.9 2.0 2.1 2.1
1.8 0.6 5.4 0.9 0.9 2.0 2.0 2.2
1.8 0.6 5.3 0.9 1.0 1.9 2.0 2.1
1.8 0.6 5.2 0.9 1.1 1.9 1.9 2.1
1.8 0.6 5.2 0.9 1.2 1.9 1.9 2.1
1.8 0.6 5.2 0.9 1.2 1.8 1.9 2.0
1.8 0.6 5.1 0.8 1.4 1.8 1.9 2.0
1.8 0.6 5.1 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.8 2.0
1.7 0.6 5.0 0.8 1.7 1.8 1.8 2.0
1.8 0.6 5.0 0.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 2.0
1.8 0.7 5.0 0.8 1.9 1.8 1.8 2.0
1.7 0.7 4.9 0.8 2.1 1.7 1.8 2.0
1.7 0.7 4.8 0.8 2.1 1.7 1.9 1.9
1.7 0.7 4.7 0.8 2.3 1.7 1.9 1.9
1.7 0.7 4.7 0.8 2.4 1.7 1.9 1.9
1.6 0.7 4.6 0.9 2.5 1.7 1.9 1.9
1.6 0.7 4.5 0.9 2.5 1.7 2.0 1.9
1.6 0.7 4.5 0.9 2.6 1.6 2.0 1.9
1.6 0.7 4.4 0.9 2.6 1.6 2.0 2.0
1.6 0.7 4.4 0.9 2.6 1.6 1.9 2.0
1.6 0.7 4.3 0.9 2.5 1.6 1.9 2.0
1.6 0.7 4.3 0.9 2.5 1.6 1.9 2.0
1.6 0.7 4.2 0.9 2.5 1.5 1.9 2.1
1.5 0.7 4.2 0.9 2.5 1.5 2.0 2.1
1.5 0.7 4.2 0.9 2.5 1.5 2.0 2.2
1.5 0.7 4.1 0.9 2.4 1.5 2.0 2.2
1.5 0.7 4.1 0.9 2.4 1.5 2.1 2.2
1.5 0.7 4.0 0.9 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.2
1.4 0.7 4.0 0.9 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.1
1.4 0.7 3.9 0.9 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.1
1.4 0.7 3.9 0.9 2.4 1.4 2.2 2.1
1.4 0.7 3.8 0.8 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.1
1.4 0.7 3.8 0.8 2.3 1.4 2.1 2.0
1.4 0.7 3.7 0.8 2.3 1.4 2.1 2.0
1.4 0.7 3.7 0.8 2.4 1.4 2.1 2.0
1.4 0.7 3.7 0.8 2.3 1.4 2.1 2.0
1.4 0.7 3.6 0.8 2.3 1.4 2.0 2.0
1.4 0.8 3.6 0.8 2.3 1.4 2.0 1.9
1.5 0.8 3.6 0.8 2.3 1.4 2.0 1.9
1.5 0.8 3.5 0.8 2.3 1.4 2.0 1.9
1.6 0.8 3.5 0.8 2.3 1.4 1.9 1.9
1.6 0.8 3.5 0.8 2.3 1.4 1.9 1.9
 Se puede ver que mas del 93% de las
coridad tienen una estabilidad de
barcos para el proximo dia de 0 a 3
barcos

77 81 85 89 93

Corrida 5
Corrida 10
4 Corrida 15

1 2 2 1 Intervalos de confianza
1.820 2.172 3.113 2.089 promedio

Corrida 12 Corrida 13 Corrida 14 Corrida 15 1

0.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 4

0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1
0.0 0.7 1.7 0.7 2
0.3 1.3 1.3 0.5 1
0.2 2.0 1.0 0.4 3
0.3 2.3 0.8 0.3 1
0.9 2.7 0.7 0.3 2
1.4 3.0 0.6 0.3 1
1.8 3.1 0.6 0.2 2
2.0 2.9 0.5 0.2 2
2.4 2.6 0.5 0.2 1
2.3 2.4 0.5 0.2 2
2.4 2.2 0.5 0.2 2
2.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 1
2.6 1.9 0.6 0.1
2.6 1.8 0.6 0.1
2.4 1.7 0.5 0.2
2.3 1.6 0.5 0.2
2.2 1.5 0.5 0.2
2.3 1.5 0.5 0.3
2.5 1.5 0.5 0.3
2.5 1.4 0.7 0.3
2.5 1.3 0.8 0.3
2.4 1.3 1.0 0.3
2.3 1.4 1.3 0.3
2.2 1.4 1.7 0.3
2.2 1.4 2.1 0.3
2.1 1.5 2.4 0.4
2.1 1.4 2.8 0.6
2.0 1.5 3.0 0.9
2.0 1.7 3.1 1.1
1.9 1.8 3.1 1.3
1.8 1.8 3.0 1.4
1.8 1.9 2.9 1.4
1.7 2.0 2.9 1.3
1.7 2.1 2.8 1.3
1.6 2.3 2.8 1.3
1.7 2.4 2.7 1.4
1.6 2.5 2.7 1.5
1.6 2.6 2.6 1.7
1.5 2.6 2.6 1.7
1.5 2.6 2.5 1.7
1.5 2.7 2.5 1.7
1.4 2.7 2.4 1.7
1.4 2.8 2.4 1.6
1.4 2.8 2.3 1.6
1.3 2.9 2.3 1.6
1.4 2.9 2.2 1.5
1.3 2.9 2.2 1.6
1.3 2.9 2.2 1.6
1.3 3.0 2.2 1.7
1.4 3.0 2.2 1.8
1.4 2.9 2.3 1.7
1.4 2.9 2.3 1.7
1.4 2.8 2.4 1.7
1.4 2.8 2.4 1.6
1.4 2.8 2.5 1.6
1.4 2.7 2.4 1.6
1.3 2.7 2.4 1.6
1.3 2.7 2.3 1.5
1.3 2.7 2.3 1.5
1.3 2.6 2.3 1.5
1.3 2.6 2.3 1.5
1.3 2.6 2.3 1.4
1.3 2.6 2.3 1.4
1.3 2.5 2.2 1.4
1.3 2.5 2.2 1.4
1.3 2.5 2.2 1.4
1.3 2.5 2.2 1.4
1.3 2.5 2.2 1.4
1.3 2.5 2.3 1.3
1.3 2.4 2.3 1.3
1.3 2.4 2.4 1.3
1.2 2.4 2.5 1.3
1.3 2.4 2.6 1.3
1.2 2.3 2.6 1.3
1.2 2.3 2.6 1.3
1.2 2.3 2.6 1.3
1.2 2.3 2.6 1.3
1.2 2.2 2.5 1.3
1.2 2.2 2.5 1.3
1.2 2.2 2.5 1.3
1.2 2.2 2.4 1.2
1.2 2.2 2.4 1.2
1.2 2.1 2.4 1.2
1.1 2.1 2.4 1.2
1.1 2.1 2.3 1.2
1.1 2.1 2.4 1.2
1.1 2.1 2.4 1.2
1.1 2.2 2.4 1.2
1.2 2.2 2.4 1.2
1.2 2.2 2.4 1.2
1.3 2.1 2.3 1.2
1.3 2.1 2.3 1.2
1.3 2.1 2.3 1.2
1.3 2.1 2.3 1.3
z = 1.6713
IC+ 0.99231735
IC- 0.17434932 al revizar los resultados con los parametro estipulados por el ejercicio
podemos decir que el 90% de los datos estaran entre los intervalos de
confianza dos como se puede ver en la grafica y tenemos dosdatos por fuera
de los intervalos de confianza lo que nos indica que aun despues de las 15
coridas no tiene un comportamiento normal. y se comprueba dado que el
valor p es menor de 0.05