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Sudan
The Prospect of a Peaceful Settlement for Abyei Conflict
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Report
Contents:
1‐ Summary of the Symposium Discussion & Recommendations
2‐ The Symposium Main Paper
Figure 1 Dr Gor & Ahmed Abdel Mokarm
Although Dinka Ngok is composed of of nine clans the dispute centres mainly on three clans (Bango,
Marik & Toaj) and only four clans of Messiriya ( Awald Kamil, Fadalia , Awlad Omran and Mazagna).
Messirya nomadic clans use Al Morhal Al Sharqi & Al Awsat (the Eastern and the middle passages) in their
migration north‐south and south‐north.
Dr Abu Al Gasim Gor presented the symposium’s main paper addressing the issues of how to bring peace
to the area of Abyei. He insisted that peace is not just stopping the war, but instead is a process that starts
with signing of a peace agreement but that needs to be followed by a number of actions to sustain it.
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The symposium covered a number of issues related to the on‐going dispute in Abyei and its implication for
the relations between North and South Sudan after the separation of the South. Many challenges need to
be addressed in order to pave the way for any sustainable peace and to create an environment for
peaceful co‐existence, in Abyei area including the following:
1‐ Political polarization: Messirya tribe follow the National Congress Party (NCP), and Dinka follow
Sudan people Liberation Movement (SPLM).
2‐ The proliferation of arms over the last 25 years which started in the mid‐1980s during Al Sidig Al
Mahdi government and increased due to the introduction of the Popular Defence Force.
3‐ Lack of collaboration between the two parties with respect to the Comprehensive Peace
Agreement (CPA), which made South Sudan separation the most likely outcome of the 2011 Self‐
Determination Referendum.
4‐ Politicisation of the Native Administration led to its weakness and the loss of its influential role in
managing and resolving conflicts.
5‐ Southern Sudan Self‐Determination Referendum and the expected secession will become the main
factor behind any negotiations, as the Dinka are keen to remain part of south and the future
Southern Sudan state.
6‐ Oil production: This is one of the richest areas in term of oil production, and motivates both
Khartoum and Juba to keep control of Abyei’s oil resources. The local population of Dinka and
Messirya are mainly motivated by access to the agricultural resources as farmers and pastoralists.
The development of the Administrative Structure of the Area
Before 1953 this area was managed under Al Bagara Rural Council which was part of Kordofan
province. In 1953 the name changed to Messirya Rural Council, Deng Majok (the Dinka Ngok leader at
that time) was selected as chairman of the council defeating Babo Nimir ( Messirya Leader), even
though the majority of the council population were from the Messirya and other tribes from Sudan.
This shows that Dinka and Messirya have been able to live together in harmony even during recent
times.
After the signing of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) in 2005, and according to Abyei
Protocol, Abyei district became a distinct administrative unit, directly administrated by the Presidency
with a devolved and local administrative structure.
Recent Developments
The current status of Abyei is still not settled as the two parties to the CPA failed to reach agreement
on how to address the issue on how to implement the Permanent Court of Arbitration Decision
regarding redrawing of the boundaries of Abyei and it will most likely now be resolved after the
separation of the south.
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The most serious issue which need to be addressed is the continuation of violence. The recent Dinka/
Messirya conference in Kadogli (South Kordofan Capital) looked at the following issues:
1‐ Security issues and how to maintain peace and security in the area
2‐ How to ensure that the roads are secure to allow the flow of people and goods to the area.
3‐ Securing the repatriation of southern Sudanese from the north.
4‐ Securing the movement of Messirya and their animals during their migration to the south.
5‐ Assigning security responsibilities to the joint SPLA/SAF units.
6‐ Settling 2010‐disputes which led to the loss of lives and agreements concerning the payment of
blood money (Deiat) to victims’ families on both sides.
However, some members of Messiriya’s tribe Popular Defence Forces (PDF) rejected the agreement as
they claim it is biased towards the Dinka. This has led to some violent incidents, such as the blocking of
roads .This demonstrates the split within the Messirya tribes, and a lack of leadership with authority
and respect among all sectors of the tribe. Groups of local activists are working independently to
promote a culture of peace and discourage people from committing any further violent acts.
The way forward
The symposium made a number of suggestions on how to break the current deadlock in Abyei
negotiations and to prevent any further violence.
A two‐way‐track process has been suggested:
1‐ Current on‐going negotiations between the NCP and SPLM to settle the Abyei question as one of
the post‐referendum issues.
2‐ To continue the process of peaceful engagement between Messiyria and Dinka, by building
confidence and trust between the two groups in order to prevent the area from sliding into further
violence.
In order to maintain the dialogue between the two tribes there is a proposal to organise a week‐
long retreat for 100 people from the two tribes (50 each) without outside intervention, so that
they can come out with a joint document addressing all the issues of concern to, taking into
account the interests of all local communities.
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Justice Africa’s Current Engagement with the Messirya
Since the end of the Justice Africa Dinka/ Messirya Kadogli conference held on 19‐ 21 December 2010,
Justice Africa continues its engagement with the Messirya tribes as their concerns are perhaps the
least‐well addressed in the peace process. Lack of representation by the senior leaders of the native
administration, and a perception that the views of the younger generation are not being heard. The
senior leaders of the native administration are linked with the National Congress Party (NCP) and
spend most of their time in Khartoum. Some senior leaders showed dissent against the NCP after the
Permanent Court of Arbitration decision, which was perceived to go against the Messirya, which led to
the Setib Conference in September 2010. This conference resulted in a strong resolution led by the
youth against the PCA blaming the leaders of the native administration for what happened. This clearly
shows that the leadership is not in touch with the views of the majority of the tribe, and this weakens
their authority and eventually respect.
Some of the Messirya elites with links to the NCP negotiated the status of Abyei during the CPA, negotiations and
later during the PCA process. The agenda of these elite was controlled and managed by Khartoum, which obstructs
the Messirya from seriously engaging with the Dinka to resolve their local issues.
Many of the elites believe that they can resolve this issue by military means and push some of the
youth towards armed resistance, increasing arms proliferation in Abyei.
Engaging the majority of the Messirya in serious peace negotiations and sustaining peace has therefore
proved difficult. Some Messirya activists realise this, and are focusing on raising awareness of peace‐
building activities, focusing particularly on PDF youth and the so‐called ‘Princes of Jihad’. Justice Africa
Sudan has been asked to provide technical and logistical support, and is exploring ways to meet that
demand.
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2: Symposium Main Paper
Presented By:
Dr Abuelgassiom Gor
Introduction:
Examines political polarization between the NCP and the SPLA/M over the Abyei area.
Investigates the roots of the Abyei conflict escalation; uncovering the political conflict between the
NCP and SPLM/A over Abyei.
Criticizes the politicization and exploitation of the Native Administration of the Msseriya and Dinka
Ngok tribes by both the NCP and SPLA/M.
Hypothesis:
That the Msseriya Bagara livelihood system is collapsing and reasons are :
Climatic change and environmental deterioration.
Proliferation of illicit arms and light weapons.
Native Administration politicization and political unrest
The paper argues that these will lead to one of the following scenarios in the near future:
1) Armed confrontation between the government of northern Sudan and what has been called the 'Peoples’
Defense Princes'. Armed conflict could happen when the Government in Khartoum starts to force the
Messriya to accept the Abyei demarcation defined by the Permanent International Arbitration Court (PIAC)
in 2008.
1) The SPLA/M could start the implementation of the PIAC demarcation; to ensure that all parts of Abyei
demarcated by The Hague in 2008 are included in the upcoming referendum or try to impose any
solution which will attach Abyei to the new state in South Sudan
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2) In this case, an armed conflict is likely to break out between Messiriya militias and the SPLA/M. If this
were to happen; Abyei could experience another collapse in security just like what happened in 2008.
Due to its geographical location and diverse ethnic structure, Abyei is an important part of the challenge
for instituting a peaceful Sudan and managing a successful separation of the south. Historically, Abeyi
has been one of the regions most affected by conflict in Sudan.
First task for analysis is to identify the various theories that could explain a Conflict Each theory
must then be applied to a familiar conflict.
Conflict studies view assumes that the devastating and tragic incidents of 1964 created historical
conflict escalation leading to the 'Abyei cycle of war’ and the Dinka Ngok Trauma.
In 1972, the ongoing conflict in Abyei was one of the reasons that led to the collapsing of the Addis
Ababa peace agreement.
In 2004 Abyei could have disrupted the Naivasha peace talks between the Government of Sudan and the
SPLA/M, because it created an identity confrontation between the negotiators.
In 2008 Abyei Town was burnt. The cause of this was the illicit proliferation of small arms and light
weapons and the collapse of the so-called Military Doctrine among the Joint Integrated Units. As a result
more than 160 people were killed despite the presence of a UN Peace-Keeping Mission. More than
6,000people fled Abyei for Heike
Abyei is a major issue dividing the NCP and SPLA going into the 2011 referendum. Continued
confrontation and polarization between the NCP and SPLA/M could potentially turn the dispute into an
active crisis.
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This has led to what is known as the ‘Corridors Dilemma’. The Messiriya rejected the PAIC demarcation
because it did not give them right of access to their traditional grazing corridors.
Corridors
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Native Administration and Indigenous Knowledge System IKS:
“Society has functional requisites or imperatives where different functional requisites produce
differentiated structures that specialize in accomplishing the requisites” Messiriya Society functional forms
have been completely destroyed.
The Messiriya Homor (Bagara) native administration consisted of two major clans, the Flayta and
Ajaira. However, the community organization is no longer functional due to the government
interference with this system.
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The Flayta comprises of the followings five Amarh.
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Missariya
Homor
Flay Ajaira
ta
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AJJaira
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Ameer
Omda
Shikh
Damin
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Hijacking Messiriya and Ngok IKS:
“It might be remarked here that the position of the Ngok Dinka as a friendly buffer state between the
Homor and Bahr El-Ghazal has proved of such value for the preservation of good feeling and
prevention of friction that apart from the impossibility of drawing of a boundary.
It would political mistake to transfer them on racial ground to another province. Such a proposal should
only be considered at their own request (at present most-improbable) or in event of Homor becoming
sedentary people”
K.D.D.Henderson 1935.
Light weapons and arms find their way into the Messiriya community through different ways:
b) In the beginning of Salvation Government through PDF. c) After the CPA was signed in 2005, through
weapons trading.
Light weapons and small arms trading created its own dynamic and networking.
While Messiriya (200000) PDF members supposed to be dissolved according to the CPA.
DDR and SLAW only focus on demobilization and disarmament, with little focus on reintegration.
Messiriya PDF commanders have joined the Princes of the People defense militias
It must be remarked that the Princes of the People defense is not a governmental make up.
THIS IS WHAT WE CALL IN PEACE STUDIES A WAR-CYCLE The fact is that the Government
cannot force them to surrender their arms.
A new generation in the period of 1990-2010 was borne and grown up knowing only conflict. This is
War Generation.
The result is that traditional means of conflict resolution and thinking and native administration have
been hijacked by militias, politicians and political parties.
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Messirya & Aggressive –Frustration:
The Messirya community has developed a pattern of Frustration – Aggression. An excessive level of
frustration is accumulated when pursuit of a goal is blocked.
Human beings, as goal oriented organisms, naturally become aggravated when they are prevented from
achieving what they desire.
The Messirya Community is prevented from achieving people goals Key Informant Analysis KIA:
Education :
By 2020 the basic education system in Abyei could collapse through lack of trained teachers and basic
schools infrastructure. Only 40% of teachers have some sort of training, and the lack of teacher training
facilities means that very little capacity can be built in education. “Student in 8 levels cannot read or even
knows to write his name”.
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Health Services :
“This hospital could be cancelled and closed within the next two years, because of shortages in staff,
electricity, and others constrains”. Diseases such as Malaria, Sickle-Cell Anaemia, Hepatitis B, HIV /AIDS
and, Dysentery have become endemic. The prevalence rate of HIV/AIDS is 7% in each of 10 examined
blood groups.
According to a Security Officer in Muglad, the area suffers from the illicit proliferation of small arms and
lights weapons. The Security Officer emphasized that youth are frustrated in an area known to contain
300,000 light arms (these are only the figures known about by the NSDCC). There is very little
employment for youths, and few job programmes. Six out of ten youths are estimated to have Hashish and
drug addictions.
Conflict levels:
Conflict over resources in the period of 1966-1973. This is the level where conflict was managed and resolved
within traditional mechanisms by the Messiriya and Dinka Council of Ajweed and by elders. However, the
period was not without problems. In 1964 more than 200 Dinka citizens were burnt in a fire in Babnousa and
Muglad, and 101 Messirya citizens were killed in Ragaba Alzarga. These incidents escalated the Abyei
conflict and contributed to Abyei War Cycle. The conflict has now exceeded the capacity of traditional
conflict resolution mechanisms. Firearms continue to enter the region from the Northern Government and by
the movement of Alanana.
At the beginning of the 1970s Some Dinka Ngok joined the Anina 2 .Then Abyei conflict shifted from a
grassroots-level conflict into a military and strategic level conflict with gradual mechanism, unfortunately
while military administrations in both the government of Sudan and SPLA knew this fact , however they
tackled conflict management to tribal and traditional mechanism of the community meanwhile , and from
functionalism view, the community organization had completely disrupted and destroyed within political
politicization, the community system developed alienation and powerlessness . In this juncture and in 1972
Abyei was one of the reasons that led to the collapse and fragmentation of the Addis Ababa peace agreement.
The Abyei conflict gained international attention during the Naivasha peace talks of 2004, due to its potential
to disrupt this process of negotiations between the Government of Sudan and the SPLA/M. This had the result
of shifting the negotiation process from the Macro Theory of Conflict to the Micro Theory of Conflict. The
peace talks added a third, international, level of negotiation to the first level of negotiation between Messiriya
and Dinka tribal leaders, and the second level of negotiators between the NCP and SPLA/M.
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Abyei dilemma came at a time of ‘negotiation fatigue’, and could have jeopardized the entire peace process
between the Government of Sudan and the SPLM. In fact, when the Abyei protocol was published it was a
pretty accurate representation of the entire Sudanese conflict mosaic. The Protocol is notable still for being
infected with three stages of conflict: Identity, Boundary and Security.
Conclusion:
Shahama 1.
Shahama 2.
Shamam.
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