c


 

 
   


 


  
  
  



 

Collier, October 2004

Paul, Professor of Economics and Director of the Centre for the Study of African Economies at
Oxford University. ³Natural Resources and Conflict in Africa.´ Crimes of War Project, the
Magazine. http://www.crimesofwar.org/africa-mag/afr_04_collier.html

c




 

  

  
     



 



     
   
   
  
  

   
 
. Of course, every civil war has its µstory¶ ± the
personalities, the social cleavages, the triggering events, the inflammatory discourse, the
atrocities. But is there anything more? Are there   

 
 ± social, political or
economic - which 
 

 


? Might it be that the same inflammatory
politician, playing on the same social cleavages, and with the same triggering events, might
µcause¶ war under one set of conditions and merely be an ugly irritant in another?
Although I am an Africanist, I like to set Africa in comparative perspective. If Africa is different
± as it clearly seems to be in respect of civil war ± there are two possible types of explanation.
Africans could simply behave differently from others when faced with the same situation.
Alternatively, for a given situation their behaviour could be much like anyone else¶s, but the
situations they face could be systematically different. To sort this out we need to look globally,
not just regionally. Together with Anke Hoeffler
 

 




    
 

 
  
 
 
  

   
 

 
 

 
 
. Our approach has been statistical ± trying to see whether any characteristics of
a society could account for a subsequent eruption into war. Within the limits of data availability,
 
   
  



 (such as inequality, and the ethnic and religious
composition of a society), 
 (such as the time since decolonization),

  (such as
the extent of democratic political rights)
 
 



  c  


 and we find that Africa fits that pattern.
Economic Roots of Civil War
Surprisingly  




  

 





  


    
 
  


 
    

 

 


  
   


 
  
    
 



 




     

 Typically, such a country
runs a risk of around one-in-seven every five years. ! "

    

 

    
 
#  


    

    
      
 
 . Of course, when this happens, the media focus on the
personalities and the triggering events. These are indeed the proximate µcause¶ of the conflict.
But the big brute fact is that 


 
 
   
 
  


  
   


 
 

  
 
   



  
   

 

 
$       

% 
   
   
 
  

    

 
 

  
 &  


 
       
 '
 $  
 . Globally
 
  
  
 

 


 

 
  . The only
exception to this pattern is where the largest ethnic group is in a majority ± that does indeed
increase risks and we can think of examples in Africa. But Africa is so ethnically diverse that in
most societies no group is in a majority. Fewer African societies have ethnic majorities than
other regions.




 

  
 
 



Deutsch 11-18-02
Dr. Jeffrey, Founder of the Rabid Tiger Project: An Organization Devoted to Political Risk
Consulting and Related Research, Contributing Editor for Russian Politics, and PHD in
Economics from GMU, http://www.rabidtigers.com/rtn/newsletterv2n9.html

The Rabid Tiger Project believes that
 



  

  
(

 in the Congo (the country formerly known as Zaire., Rwanda, Somalia and Sierra Leone,
and domestic instability in Zimbabwe, Sudan and other countries, as well as occasional brushfire
and other wars (thanks in part to "national" borders that cut across tribal ones,  




  c ) 
all


 rabid tigers and potential rabid tigers, 


  

  

  
   
*
   
 



 



  
 . +

 

 

 
 ,  
   


  
 


 

 . South Africa is a major exception in this respect
- not to mention in that she also probably already has the Bomb. Thus,
  
 
more

  
 there than, say, in Europe where the political lines have long since been
drawn, or Asia where many of the countries (China, India, Japan. are powers unto themselves
and don't need any "help," thank you. Thus,





 
   
  
 -. Of course, a proxy war alone may not induce the Great Powers to fight each other.
But

 
  
  


 



, if the other powers
are interested in a fight. Certainly, such a strike would in the first place have been 



   *

    , etc. Africa is an ocean of troubled waters, and

some people love to go fishing