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Priceline.com survived the dot com bubble and attempts by management to make it a service for everyone selling
anything. The days of Priceline.com mortgage are history and management now has a singular laser focus on the
travel industry.
By successfully aggregating more than 86,000 hotels worldwide, the company is well positioned to benefit from
secular growth in the hotel industry. With occupancy rates around 60% for most hotels, Priceline.com offers the
potential to sell inventory to a diverse group of consumers. Airline tickets and rental cars are also part of the
revenue mix but 80% of all Priceline.com transactions are for hotels.
Despite having less reach than its competitor and less traffic, Priceline.com trades at a premium to most of the
industry. We believe this is due to the low debt structure, a history of earnings outperformance and considerable
growth that the company is expected to have.
We initiate coverage of Priceline.com with a outperform rating and $485 price target. Recent developments in the
airline sector have been a boon for Priceline as competitors removed certain carriers from their listings. Airlines
then encouraged consumers to use Priceline. The near term worry of more airlines following suit does give us
pause to increase air gross revenues in future quarters, but we believe that consumers will continue to use OTA’s
and expect increased penetration in the hotel and rental car segments to make up for any revenue decreases from
airlines.
PLEASE SEE PAGES 16-19 FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES, REG AC ANALYST CERTIFICATION AND DISCLAIMERS
Analyst: Brian Bolan 773-413-0285 Bolan@willcap.com January 19, 2011
WILLIAMS CAPITAL RESEARCH PAGE 2 January 19, 2011
Company Background
Priceline.com came to prominence for its Name Your Own Price system, where travelers would name
their price for airline tickets, hotel rooms, car rentals and vacation packages. The price would be
compared to undisclosed prices in the Priceline database, with the purchaser knowing the location and
name of the rental car company, airline or hotel only after the purchase had gone through, with no rights
to cancel.
Priceline's cut of the proceeds was the difference between the price an individual named and the price charged by
the service establishment. More recently, it has moved to a more traditional model where travelers are presented
prices and are also told the name of the establishment. Travelers can still choose to name their price for airline
tickets, hotel rooms and rental cars.
Priceline.com also experimented with selling gasoline and groceries under the Name Your Own Price model in
2000 via WebHouse Club. Priceline also got into the online auction business with Priceline Yard Sales, where
individuals would use the Priceline system to haggle for various second-hand items and trade them in person.
Priceline also sold long distance telephone service and automobiles under the Name Your Own Price model. All
of these experiments were terminated in 2002.
Priceline works with 78,000 chain owned and independently owned hotels in 84 countries. Hotels are focus of
sales for Priceline.com as the market is highly fragmented and represents more than 80% of the units sold. There
are 10 domestic and 20 international airlines participating in the Name Your Own Price System.
Booking.com
Established in 1996, Booking.com guarantees prices for any type of property, ranging from small independent
hotels to a five star luxury through Booking.com. The Booking.com website is available in 36 languages and
offers over 86,000 hotels in 81 countries.
Agoda.com
In November, 2007 Priceline acquired the Bangkok and Singapore-based Agoda, an online hotel reservations
service which providing a service similar to Priceline's but specializing in Asia Pacific. Agoda's network includes
9,000 hotels in Asia and more than 49,000 worldwide.
Agency gross profit is derived from travel related transactions where Priceline.com is not the merchant of record
and where the prices of services are determined by third parties. Agency gross profit, which represented the
substantial majority of total gross profit in 2009, consisted of travel commissions, customer processing fees; and
Global Distribution Systems (GDS) reservation booking fees.
Merchant gross profit is derived from transactions where Priceline.com is the merchant of record and suppliers
determine the price they will accept from the customer. Merchant gross profit consisted of transaction gross
profit representing revenue charged to a customer, less the cost of revenue, transaction gross profit representing
the amount charged to a customer, less the amount charged by suppliers in connection with the hotel room
reservations provided through the merchant price-disclosed hotel service, customer processing fees and ancillary
fees.
Traffic to Priceline
13.56% google.com
11.51% kayak.com
11.07% expedia.com
7.23% travelocity.com
4.35% hotwire.com
3.88% orbitz.com
3.68% yahoo.com
2.84% tripadvisor.com
2.41% facebook.com
2.28% bing.com
Source: Alexa.com
This table shows a sizeable dependence on the major search engines and a surprisingly high number of referrals
from properties that compete directly with Priceline.com. We believe that this suggests that consumers are
looking at multiple sources for pricing information.
Management
Jeffery H. Boyd
President and Chief Executive Officer
Jeff Boyd has served as a Director of Priceline.com since October 2001. Mr. Boyd has been President of
Priceline.com since May 2001 and Chief Executive Officer since November 2002. Prior to joining Priceline.com,
Mr. Boyd was Executive Vice President, General Counsel and Secretary of Oxford Health Plans, Inc. (UNH,
$40.88 – Not rated). Mr. Boyd is a member of the board of directors for Bankrate, Inc. and BEN Holdings, Inc.
(the holding company for Bankrate, Inc.).
Daniel J. Finnegan
Daniel J. Finnegan is Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer of
Priceline.com. Mr. Finnegan has been Chief Financial Officer since January 2009. Mr. Finnegan was the
Company's Senior Vice President, Controller and Chief Accounting Officer from October 2005 to January 2009.
Mr. Finnegan joined Priceline.com in April 2004 as Vice President and Chief Compliance Officer. Prior to joining
Priceline.com, Mr. Finnegan served as Chief Financial Officer for CS Technology, Inc., a consulting company.
Bob Mylod Jr. was appointed Vice Chairman and Head of Worldwide Strategy and Planning in January 2009.
Before becoming the Company’s Vice Chairman, Mr. Mylod was Chief Financial Officer from November 2000 to
January 2009. Prior to joining Priceline.com, Mr. Mylod was acting Chief Financial Officer for WebHouse Club,
Inc., a privately held e-commerce company and a licensee of Priceline.com, and a Principal at Stonington
Partners, a private equity investment firm. Mr. Mylod is on the board of directors of EverBank Financial Corp. He
will be retiring on March 31, 2011.
Merchant revenues have grown 34% and 24% in the last two calendar years for Priceline.com as units sold
increased 41% and 40% in the same respective periods. Priceline.com saw 23.5% increase in sales in the third
quarter of 2010 compared to the year ago period and roughly 11% ahead of the prior quarter. We believe that
sales growth should continue for the foreseeable future barring a terrorist attack or similar catastrophe.
We note that the company had a significant increase in online advertising in 1Q10, jumping 22% from the prior
period and 66% versus the same period a year ago. We expect that the company will continue to focus on online
advertising over the near term.
Balance Sheet
At the end of 3Q10, Priceline had more than $1.4 billion in cash and equivalents and short term investments on
the balance sheet. This is significant increase from the year ago period when the company had approximately
$721 million.
At the end of 3Q10, Priceline.com had approximately $471 million in long term debt and an increase as Priceline
took advantage of historic low rates in March.
Financial Outlook
As airlines increase prices due to higher oil prices, we believe that consumers will continue to look to OTA’s for
discounts and optimal rates. This bodes well for Priceline despite the expected weakness in European travel
market. We believe that there could be upside to our 2011 EPS estimate of $17.26.
Investment Thesis
The online travel agent (OTA) industry has four major players that compete for the business of a highly
fragmented hotel industry and, to a lesser extent, the airline industry and rental car industry. Airlines sales
provide large gross dollar bookings, but contribute little to the bottom line. The rental car industry, while possibly
constrained by supply, has the exact opposite problem the airlines have in that their gross bookings are very small.
The saviour of the sector is the hotel industry, which is highly fragmented and the biggest contributor to net
income of the three major suppliers.
We believe that hotel bookings will continue to drive the OTA industry due to the consolidation in the airline
industry (United and Continental) (UAL, $25.02 - Not Rated) and in the rental car business (Hertz (HTZ, $14.21
- Not rated) plans to acquire Dollar Thrifty (DTG, $48.08 - Not rated), although Avis (CAR, $14.52 - Not rated)
may show up as a late bidder). The hotel industry is coming off of a consolidation boom which saw both strategic
(hotel buying hotel) and financial (private equity buying hotel) buyers bidding up a market that had severe
capacity concerns in 2005-2007. Another chronic problem for the hotel industry has been its ill timed expansions
that seem to coincide with economic downturns. With occupancy rates around 60%, hotels are lowering average
daily rates (ADR) to stimulate demand, and continue to look to OTA’s to find customers.
There are several concerns that the OTA’s face in both the short and near terms. One of the biggest is the
economic concerns of Europe. Priceline.com in particular generates a majority of its revenues from the hotel
business in Europe which, given the economic uncertainty, may not be a destination of choice for foreign
travelers. The situation could be compounded should a second volcano from Iceland erupt and possibly disrupt
travel on an even larger scale than the Eyjafjallajokull eruption in April 2010.
Longer term, the implications of contract re-negotiations with several airlines loom on the horizon for 2012.
Crude oil prices, which continue to dramatically affect the airline industry and which also affect the hotel and
rental car industries, could move higher and again strangle the leisure travel market as they did in the summer of
2008.
Our view of the industry is that there will be several players for some time to come. Competition, whether via
metasearch players like Kayak.com or other OTA’s, tends to benefit the consumer and stimulate travel. We view
Expedia.com (EXPE: $26.69 , Market Perform) as having the deepest breadth throughout the categories of
services provided, and Orbitz (OWW - $5.30,Market Perform) the weakest in that category. Priceline.com is our
top pick in the space due to its clean balance sheet, brand recognition and retention and market perception of
being a leader in the space. Expedia is also attractive but its brand is diluted across several properties and its
financial structure may worry some. Orbitz, founded by five airlines, has shifted its focus to hotels and continues
to try to build its brand, but its debt structure may impede future third party investment.
Industry Discussion
As we look at the online travel industry we want to highlight a few key areas to better understand the industry as a
whole. First we will discuss the primary components of the online travel agent, the suppliers of travel services.
Then we will look into the fees and metasearch and, finally, we will touch on traffic.
Airline Segment
The airline industry has been plagued by overcapacity, financial losses and volatility in oil prices. Consolidation
continues in the space, with the most recent tie up of United Airlines and Continental (UAL, $25.02 – Not Rated)
showing that even the biggest airlines need to find ways to save on costs. From the consumer perspective, bigger
isn’t necessarily better as less competition ultimately drives prices higher. The same is true for OTA’s in that
fewer suppliers could lead to lower revenues sources and thus potential decreases in future sales. Although an
airline ticket does a lot to boost gross bookings, it is generally a very small contribution to net income.
The recent moves by American Airlines (AMR, $8.29 - Not rated) and Delta (DAL, $11.70 - Not rated) point to
further consolidation and cost cutting in the airline industry. We expect other airlines to look the potential of
squeezing the OTA’s for better pricing or face a 100% elimination of supply. Positioning in front of negotiations
is one move that Expedia has employed and it resulted in the airline suggesting consumers use Priceline.com.
The eventual consumer decision has traditionally been one that has included competitor information unless a
purchase comes solely from brand loyalty or brand “dislike”. Our research shows that air related revenue for all
OTA’s has been dropping over the last few years.
The proposed consolidation of two major players in the rental car industry supports some recent anecdotal stories
of very low supply of rental cars in select markets. The inventory issues of rental car companies is a problem that
can be solved quite quickly and with minimal impact to the OTA’s. The health of the business appears to be
relatively stable with a small majority of rental cars coming from corporate travelers as opposed to leisure. Avis
notes its mix is a 60/40 split of corporate and leisure customers respectively. Currently, the rental car sector is a
small focus of the OTA’s.
Hotel Segment
With a highly fragmented ecosystem, the hotel industry appears as though it will always need the OTA’s to
inform potential consumers and provide an easy transaction for those wishing to be customers. Large national
chains serve as good proxies for the entire industry, but there are many smaller entities that will require OTA’s to
maintain acceptable occupancy rates.
The hotel sector has historically been out of touch with the supply and demand of the broader market over the last
few decades. When times were good, supply was constrained and new construction was initiated. As the broader
economy cooled, many new properties came on line just as demand was close to or had bottomed. More recently
the pattern has repeated itself as supply grew in the face of economic recession. Hotel News Resources has
estimated that there are 1.1 million new hotel rooms under construction as of April 2010, suggesting that the trend
will continue.
While lower occupancies have historically increased the availability of discounted hotel rooms, and a lower rate
of ADR growth can positively impact underlying room night growth, lower ADRs also decrease Expedia revenue
per room night as their payment varies proportionally with the room price. Revenue per room night in 2009
declined 17% primarily due to the downward movement in ADRs as well as adverse movements in foreign
exchange rates and lower fees. Key leisure markets like Las Vegas and Hawaii have seen dramatic declines in
ADR’s.
The OTA’s are coming off the anniversary of a reduction in fees that occurred in 1Q09. This reduction in fees
was spurred on by the success of the metasearch companies such as Kayak.com. Metasearch is simply an
aggregator of all of the data from several sites presented to the consumer in a usable format to help locate the
lowest price or best outcome from multiple service provider locations. Other metasearch companies in the past
would “scrape” data off sites, sometimes with permission, mostly without. Kayak.com employs a different
model, one where the OTA’s pay them for placement.
This aggregation of prices ended up prompting a price war that saw the end of most fees by the OTA’s. This led
to lower revenue and earnings for OTA’s and lower prices for consumers. The advertising expense that the
OTA’s pay Kayak.com and the other metasearch sites is likely to be the focus of other technology companies,
particularly Google (GOOG, $639.63 - Outperform) which has purchased ITA Software. Yahoo! (YHOO,
$16.50 – Market Perform) has a travel site that has transactions powered by Travelocity, whereas Google is not
likely to partner for a transaction but instead deliver consumers to advertisers. This means that Google is a threat
to the metasearch companies more than the OTA’s, and Yahoo!’s partnership with Travelocity potentially
limiting the amount of advertising the other OTA’s are willing to spend on Yahoo!.
The graph below from Compete.com shows that Expedia holds an edge over the other OTA’s in terms of unique
users per month over the last year. Expedia’s depth of portfolio is the likely reason for the sizeable advantage it
enjoys over its rival OTA’s.
Exhibit 2
The OTA’s are facing a challenging 2011. The weakening of the Euro may become a material problem for the
entire industry as US-based travelers, who would normally take leisure trips to Europe when the exchange rate is
so favorable, may not travel abroad due to the economic concerns in multiple countries. Those same concerns
cast doubt on the amount of intra-European leisure travel as well, in effect causing a double hit to demand.
Asian travel is also coming under pressure as civil unrest in Thailand will undoubtedly curtail a percentage of
travel to the region. Australia and Canada have lowered the threat level to its citizens that have planned travel but
still advise that people use caution and reconsider their travel plans.
The volcano in Iceland that disrupted air travel in Europe in April 2010 due to the massive ash cloud may see its
larger neighbor erupt in the near term as well. Mid-May earthquakes around the site of the larger Katla volcano
were thought to signal an eruption in near future. Although the near term in geological time could be several
decades, it could also mean in the next several months or quarters. Should this volcano erupt, we would believe
that shares of OTA companies will face severe pressure as European travel would likely halt entirely.
Finally, domestic concerns over the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico have derailed travel in several Gulf states,
particularly in the tourist-heavy Florida Gulf coast. The struggles of the Gulf Coast have been well documented
and there is limited proof of any full scale tourism increase. This may benefit other domestic travel destinations,
but concerns of a double dip recession may keep the leisure traveler spending less than average again this year.
Comparable Companies
OTA’s compete directly with one another (Priceline.com, Expedia, Orbitz and Travelocity) as well as many other
firms. The OTA’s offer transaction services that separate them from the metasearch players such as Kayal.com
and the Fly.com division of TravelZoo.
Priceline.com Expedia and Orbitz compete for advertising revenue with large internet portal sites, such as
America Online and MSN who offer listing or other advertising opportunities for travel-related companies. The
companies also compete with search engines like Google, Bing and Yahoo! Search that offer pay-per-click
advertising services.
Priceline.com (NASDAQ: PCLN - Rated Outperform) - Priceline.com Incorporated enables consumers to use
the Internet to save money on a variety of products and services. The Company's product allows customers to
name their own price on products or services and communicates that demand directly to participating sellers or
to their private databases. Participants include domestic and international airlines, and hotel chains.
Expedia (NASDAQ: EXPE - $26.69 , rated Market Perform ) - Expedia, Inc. provides branded online travel
services for leisure and small business travelers. The Company offers a wide range of travel shopping and
reservation services, providing real-time access to schedule, pricing and availability information for airlines,
hotels, and car rental companies..
Orbitz. (NYSE: OWW - $5.30, rated Market Perform ) - Orbitz Worldwide, Inc. offers travel services over the
Internet. The Company's website offers air, hotel, vacation package, car rental, cruise, travel insurance, ground
transportation, event ticket, and tour bookings.
Travelzoo (NASDAQ: TZOO - $51.72, Not rated ) - Travelzoo Inc. provides online marketing solutions to the
travel industry. Through the Company's Web site, its newsletter, and by using its listing management software,
travel companies can inform Internet users about their specials. Travelzoo serves companies such as Alamo Rent-
A-Car, Delta Airlines, Expedia, and Hilton Hotels.
Universal Travel Group (NYSE: UTA- $7.20, Not rated ) - Universal Travel Group provides travel services.
The Company's core services include booking services for air tickets, hotels, restaurants as well as tour routing
for customers.
Ctrip.com (NYSE: CTRP - $43.03, Not rated) - Ctrip.com International, Ltd. is a consolidator of hotel
accommodations and airline tickets in China.
Sabre Holdings (Privately Held) - Sabre Holdings, owner of Travelocity, is a world leader in the travel
marketplace, Sabre Holdings merchandises and retails travel products and provides distribution and technology
solutions for the travel industry. Sabre Holdings supports travelers, travel agents, corporations and travel
suppliers around the world.
Exhibit 3
PCLN 431.21 21.27B 13.20 17.65 24.43 32.67 12.93 6.97 27.24
Amazon.com (AMZN, $191.25 - Not rated), ebay Inc. (EBAY, $29.45 - Not rated)
We are initiating coverage of Priceline.com with a Market Outperform rating and a one-year price target of $485.
We estimate topline growth of 11 % in calendar 2011 and expect the company to further pay down debt and
increase cash at the same time. We also recognize that Priceline.com deserves a premium multiple to its peers
due to the lack of large scale debt and its ability to increase cash while paying down debt.
We are wary of potential multiple contraction which would be based on uncertainty in Europe, civil unrest in Asia
and a potential for a double dip domestic recession. Despite those fears of a multiple contraction, we believe that
earnings growth will result in a higher multiple for the stock. 28x our 2011 earnings estimate is well within the
historical range for Priceline.com and it gives us our price target of $485.
Exhibit 4
Exhibit 5
Exhibit 6
Exhibit 7
Exhibit 8
Risks
If the company experiences any or all of the following risk factors, as well as others, the company’s stock price
may be affected.
The travel market is susceptible to significant swings. Terrorism, SARS, H1N1 and volcanic ash are just a
few random events that can significantly affect travel behaviors of consumers and business travelers alike.
Should such an unforeseen event occur, travel patterns are likely to swing and could cause a material impact
on revenue and earnings.
Priceline.com is dependent on the leisure travel market and select suppliers. Leisure travel accounts for
a majority of travel bookings for Priceline.com and unforeseen catastrophic events that derail travel would
significantly impact the company. The company is also reliant on only 10 domestic airlines for its air ticketing
services.
Competition is intense and moves quickly. Priceline.com faces intense competition from Expedia, Orbitz
and Travelocity.com among others. Should a competitor develop a more efficient platform or provide a
unique or differentiated service, Priceline would face a significant challenge.
Changes in search engine algorithms could impact Priceline.com. Pricline.com relies on Google, Yahoo
and other search engines for traffic, changes to the process of how the consumers are routed to their site or
sites like Kayak.com, which sends a large amount of traffic to Priceline.com.
Loss of key management. Turnover at Priceline could become a challenge to top management. Should
large scale turnover occur the talent drain will result in an inability to properly serve clients which would put
future revenues at risk.
APPENDIX
Exhibit 11 Priceline – One Year Graph
Source: BigCharts.com
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
I, Brian Bolan, hereby certify that the views expressed in the foregoing research report accurately
reflect my personal views about the subject companies and their securities mentioned in this
report. I further certify that no part of my compensation was, is, or will be directly, or indirectly,
related to the specific recommendations or views contained in this research report.
Financial Interests: Neither I, Brian Bolan, nor a member of my household owns securities in any of
the subject companies mentioned in this research report. Neither I, nor a member of my household
is an officer, director, or advisory board member of the subject company or has another significant
affiliation with the subject company. I do not know or have reason to know at the time of this
publication of any other material conflict of interest.
___________________________________________________________________________
Analyst Compensation: The author's compensation is based upon the value directly or indirectly
attributed to the research services by Williams Capital institutional brokerage clients. The author of
this report is compensated based on the performance of the firm, and has not received any
compensation in the past 12 months from any of the subject companies mentioned in this report.
The performance of the firm is driven by its secondary trading revenues, investment banking
revenues, and asset management revenues.
Outperform: (BUY) In the analyst's opinion, the stock will outperform the sector by 5% over the next
12 months.
Perform: (HOLD) In the analyst's opinion, the stock will perform in line with the sector over the next
12 months.
Underperform: (SELL) In the analyst's opinion, the stock will underperform the sector by 5% over
the next 12 months.
Valuation Methodology:
As of the market close on January 18, 2011, PCLN traded at 32.7 times our 2010 earnings
estimate of $13.48 and 25.55 times our 2011 earnings estimate of $17.26. Our price target of
$485 is based on a P/E multiple of 28x our 2011 earnings per share estimate.
Risks
The travel market is susceptible to significant swings. Terrorism, SARS, H1N1 and volcanic ash are just a
few random events that can significantly affect travel behaviors of consumers and business travelers alike.
Should such an unforeseen event occur, travel patterns are likely to swing and could cause a material impact
on revenue and earnings.
Priceline.com is dependent on the leisure travel market and select suppliers. Leisure travel accounts for
a majority of travel bookings for Priceline.com and unforeseen catastrophic events that derail travel would
significantly impact the company. The company is also reliant on only 10 domestic airlines for its air ticketing
services.
Competition is intense and moves quickly. Priceline.com faces intense competition from Expedia, Orbitz
and Travelocity.com among others. Should a competitor develop a more efficient platform or provide a
unique or differentiated service, Priceline would face a significant challenge.
Changes in search engine algorithms could impact Priceline.com. Pricline.com relies on Google, Yahoo
and other search engines for traffic, changes to the process of how the consumers are routed to their site or
sites like Kayak.com, which sends a large amount of traffic to Priceline.com.
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