NBCFM Daily Bulletin, December 16, 2020 PDF

December 15, 2020
TABLE OF CONTENTS
NBF INITIATING COVERAGE OF: KNT
NBF RATING/TARGET CHANGES: CAS, CWX, GDI, ITP, PLC, RCH, SIS, UNS
INITIATING COVERAGE
K92 MINING INC.: A World Class Asset with Room to Grow; Target: C$12.25; Rating: Outperform Summary Full 5
TARGET and/or RATING CHANGES

SPECIAL SITUATIONS: Year Ahead Thematic: What Does a Weakening U.S. Dollar Mean for Our Coverage Universe? Summary Full 8
Target
Symbol New Was
CAS $21.00 $22.00
CWX $7.50 $8.00
GDI $46.00 $46.50
ITP $27.00 $27.50
PLC $33.50 $35.50
RCH $32.50 $33.50
SIS $16.50 $17.00
UNS $8.50 $8.00
INTRADAYS INCLUDED (Released December 15, 2020)

PEMBINA PIPELINE CORP.: Hitting the play button on paused expansions…; Target: C$36 (Was C$35) Summary Full 31
OTHER COMMENTS
COVID-19 Daily Monitor 40
Institutional Client Events 52
RESEARCH FLASHES
ERO COPPER CORP. Provides Quarterly Exploration Update 53
SIENNA SENIOR LIVING INC.: The plight of seniors housing stocks has to be considered improved with the rollout of the vaccine 55
WESDOME GOLD MINES LTD.: Kiena A Zone Resource Successfully Converts Inferred, Maintains Grades 57
NBF Disclosures, click here: http://www.nbin.ca/contactus/disclosures.html

THE NBCFM DAILY BULLETIN
NBCFM Research | December 15, 2020
SUMMARIES
INITIATING COVERAGE
K92 MINING INC.: A World Class Asset with Room to Grow Full Story
KNT (TSX) C$7.03 Event:
Initiating Coverage (New Report Highlights)
Target: C$12.25
(Initiating) Key Takeaways:
Stock Rating: Outperform We are initiating coverage of K92 Mining Inc. with a C$12.25 target price and an Outperform rating
(Initiating) with a Speculative risk qualifier. The company owns and operates the Kainantu underground mine
located in Papua New Guinea. This report provides a brief overview of our detailed initiating
Est. Total Return: 74.3% coverage note, linked here.
Jonathan Egilo – (416) 507-8177
TARGET and/or RATING CHANGES

SPECIAL SITUATIONS: Year Ahead Thematic: What Does a Weakening U.S. Dollar Mean for Our Coverage Universe? Full Story
Event:
Year Ahead Thematic, FX Assumption Update, Target Adjustments
Key Takeaways:
As the announcement of effective vaccines has driven a risk-on trade and a tumble in the U.S. dollar, the CAD/USD has shifted rapidly. With 2020
thankfully coming to a close, we look ahead to 2021 and take the opportunity to explore what a 1.25 exchange rate in 2021, as forecast by our
economics team, means for our covered companies with U.S. exposure. While nearly every company on our list is affected to some degree, as outlined
in our summary table, we highlight HDI, PLC and AD as those with the greatest U.S. exposure that report in Canadian dollars. BYD would have joined
the shortlist had the company not announced that it will be reporting in U.S. dollars as of January 1, 2021.
As we update our currency assumptions, we adjust our estimates and targets for a number of companies on unchanged valuation multiples (see
Revised Estimates): CAS to $21 (was $22), CWX to $7.50 (was $8), GDI to $46 (was $46.50), ITP to $27 (was $27.50), PLC to $33.50 (was $35.50), RCH
to $32.50 (was $33.50), SIS to $16.50 (was $17) and UNS to $8.50 (was $8).
Zachary Evershed - (514) 412-0021

Associate: Thomas Bolland - (514) 871-5013
INTRADAYS INCLUDED: (Released December 15, 2020)

PEMBINA PIPELINE CORP.: Hitting the play button on paused expansions… Full Story
PPL / PBA (TSX; NYSE) C$33.55; US$26.30 Event:
Pembina introduced 2021 guidance including EBITDA of $3.2-$3.4 bln (NBF: $3.2 bln) and capex of
Target: C$36.00 $785 mln, reactivating its Peace Phase VII and Empress cogen expansions.
(Was C$35.00)
Stock Rating: Sector Perform Key Takeaways:
(Unchanged) Following the release of PPL’s 2020 Sustainability report, which included enhanced disclosure on key
ESG performance indicators, namely Social criteria, our ESG scorecard increases 11 points to 72 (was
Est. Total Return: 14.8% 61/100), and we look forward to the company establishing a formal corporate GHG strategy in 2021
alongside emissions intensity targets. Although we commend PPL for its ESG performance, in light of
the recent federal announcement to raise the carbon tax to $170/tonne by 2030, we maintain our
Patrick Kenny, CFA – (403) 290-5451
Associate: Amber Brown - (403) 290-5624 cost of equity assumption pending Pembina releasing a corporate GHG emissions strategy along with
Associate: Zach Warnock - (403) 355-6643 targets that directly address the new carbon tax environment. Overall, our target moves up $1 to
$36, and we maintain our Sector Perform rating.
DISCLOSURES:
Ratings And What They Mean: PRIMARY STOCK RATING: NBF has a three-tiered rating system that is relative to the coverage universe of the particular analyst. Here is a brief description
of each: Outperform – The stock is expected to outperform the analyst’s coverage universe over the next 12 months; Sector Perform – The stock is projected to perform in line with the sector
over the next 12 months; Underperform – The stock is expected to underperform the sector over the next 12 months. SECONDARY STOCK RATING: Under Review − Our analyst has
withdrawn the rating because of insufficient information and is awaiting more information and/or clarification; Tender − Our analyst is recommending that investors tender to a specific offering
for the company’s stock; Restricted − Because of ongoing investment banking transactions or because of other circumstances, NBF policy and/or laws or regulations preclude our analyst from
rating a company’s stock. INDUSTRY RATING: NBF has an Industry Weighting system that reflects the view of our Economics & Strategy Group, using its sector rotation strategy. The three-
tiered system rates industries as Overweight, Market Weight and Underweight, depending on the sector’s projected performance against broader market averages over the next 12 months.
RISK RATING: As of June 30, 2020, National Bank Financial discontinued its Below Average, Average and Above Average risk ratings. We continue to use the Speculative risk rating which
reflects higher financial and/or operational risk.
General
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NBCFM Research | Daily Bulletin
Precious Metals & Minerals
Industry Rating: Market Weight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group)
December 15, 2020
K92 Mining Inc. STOCK DATA

52-Week High and Low ($) 8.50-1.55
A World Class Asset with Room to Grow
Dividend per Share ($) 0.00
Dividend Yield (%) 0.0
KNT (TSX) STOCK RATING TARGET EST. TOTAL RETURN
C$7.03 Outperform C$12.25 74.3% Shares Outstanding (Mln) 218.9
Market Capitalization ($Mln) 1,208.5
Enterprise Value ($Mln) 1,174.3
Initiating Coverage (New Report Highlights)
We are initiating coverage of K92 Mining Inc. with a C$12.25 target price and NBCFM ESTIMATES & VALUATION
an Outperform rating with a Speculative risk qualifier. The company owns Fiscal Y/E December 2019A 2020E 2021E
and operates the Kainantu underground mine located in Papua New Guinea.
Gold Price ($/oz) 1,392 1,785 1,935
This report provides a brief overview of our detailed initiating coverage
note, linked here. GEO Production (kGEO) 82.3 97.6 138.8
AISC/oz ($) 680 756 861
A High-Grade Asset with a History of Growth Under K92 EBITDA ($Mln) 49.8 90.1 152.5
Ownership EV/EBITDA (x) 23.6 13.0 7.7
K92 Mining acquired the Kainantu property in March 2015, and the company EPS ($) 0.16 0.22 0.40
focused its efforts on expanding and mining the high-grade Kora deposit. CFPS ($) 0.24 0.36 0.47
Between year-end 2017 and mid-2020, K92 increased global resources at
P/CF (x) 23.3 15.5 11.7
Kainantu to 5.2 MGEO from 2.0 MGEO at a discovery cost of under US$5/
GEO. Stage 1 of Kora commercial production was declared in 1Q18 while Free Cash Flow ($Mln) (1.7) 36.5 41.2
the Stage 2 expansion was commissioned in 3Q20, which saw a doubling of FCF Yield (%) (0.1) 3.0 3.3
throughput to 400 ktpa. NAVPS (C$) 9.52
P/NAV (x) 0.72
Stage 3 PEA Is the Tip of the Iceberg All figures in US$ unless otherwise noted
In July 2020, the company announced the results of the Kora Stage 3 National Bank Financial, Refinitiv, Company Reports
expansion, which would see throughput increase with the construction of a

new 1.0 Mtpa standalone mill. The study only considers using the 1.0 Mtpa
processing facility, thus there remains 400 ktpa of spare milling capacity.
With spare mill capacity, mining infrastructure being built for rates up to
3.0 Mtpa, and a plethora of near-mine exploration targets, we believe the
next stage of production growth will exceed the July 2020 PEA.
STOCK PERFORMANCE (Source: FactSet)
(P) (V 100000)
NAV Accretion on the Horizon 9 200
8
We have taken a conservative approach in our base case NAV estimates by 7 150
assuming the spare 400 ktpa of mill capacity is used to process a lower-grade 6
100
portion of the Kora resource. However, it is likely the new technical study 5
4
shows an even more compelling scenario. We looked at two upside scenarios 50
3
and see a path to nearly 50% NAV accretion in the near-term.
Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20
Compelling Valuation and Re-Rate Opportunity

Our base case NAV assumptions have the stock trading at 0.72x P/NAV,
RISK RATING: Speculative
however, we see a clear path to 0.47x - 0.60x based on our accretive
scenarios. With the next stage of development expected to bring K92 into COMPANY PROFILE
intermediate producer status by 2023, a re-rate opportunity lies ahead. K92 Mining is a junior producer with a focus on mining and exploration
At near spot gold prices, our fully ramped-up estimates across our three at their flagship Kainantu underground mine, located in Papua New
Guinea. The company generates most of its revenue from the sale of
scenarios show 2025 FCF yield in the range of 21.2% - 35.1%.
gold, with the remaining revenue largely sourced from copper.
Jonathan Egilo ● (416) 507-8177 ● jonathan.egilo@nbc.ca 5 For required disclosures, please refer to the end of the document.
K92 Mining Inc.
K92 Mining Inc. (TSX:KNT; OTCQX:KNTNF)

TICKER KNT.TO FISCAL YEAR-END December 31
CURRENT PRICE (C$) 7.03 52-WEEK HIGH (C$) 8.50
STOCK RATING Outperform 52-WEEK LOW (C$) 1.55
TARGET PRICE (C$) 12.25 P/NAV (cash adjusted) (x) 0.72
TOTAL RETURN 74.3% P/NAV Target Multiple (x) 1.30
RISK RATING Speculative EV/EBITDA FY1 (x) 13.0
SECTOR RATING Market Weight FCF Yield FY1 (%) 3.0%
SHARES OUTSTANDING (mln) 218.9
MARKET CAPITALIZATION (C$ mln) 1,539
FINANCIAL DATA STOCK/VOLUME CHART
Technical Assumptions 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 9.00 20,000
Gold (US$/oz) 1,392 1,785 1,935 1,820 1,705 18,000
8.00
Copper (US$/lb) 2.73 2.72 2.95 2.90 2.90
7.00 16,000
14,000
Financial Forecasts 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 6.00
Balance Sheet (US$ mln) 12,000
(000)
5.00
(C$)
Cash & Equivalents 22 53 129 143 141 10,000
Working Capital 25 74 161 175 173 4.00
8,000
Total Debt 13 5 0 0 0 3.00
6,000
Income Statement (US$ mln)
2.00 4,000
Revenue 102 161 230 226 247
Cost of Sales 48 62 70 69 91 1.00 2,000
G&A Expense 5 9 8 8 8 0.00 0
EBITDA 50 90 152 149 147 Dec-19 Feb-20 Apr-20 Jun-20 Aug-20 Oct-20
Volume (RHS) Share price (LHS)
Depreciation, Depletion and Amortization 9 13 17 17 23
Net Income 33 48 87 84 79 NAV SUMMARY
Cash Flow (US$ mln) Asset Ownership (%) NAVPS (C$/sh)
CF from Operations 27 66 109 105 106 Kora NPV (5% DR) 95 7.43
Capital Expenditures 28 29 67 91 107 Judd (credit/oz) 95 0.74
Net Proceeds from Equity 21 4 46 0 0 Karempe (credit/oz) 95 0.30
Net Proceeds (Repayment) from Debt 14 (9) (5) 0 0 Other NA 0.30
Free Cash Flow (2) 37 41 14 (1) Project NAV 8.77
Per Share Data (US$/share) Cash & ST Investments (FY1) 0.66

EPS (basic) 0.16 0.22 0.40 0.37 0.35 In-the-money options & warrants 0.10
CFPS 0.24 0.24 0.36 0.47 0.45 A/R and Inventory (FY1) 0.24
FCFPS (0.01) 0.17 0.18 0.06 (0.00) Corporate G&A (10 yr @ 5% DR) (0.17)
Weighted-Avg Basic Shares O/S (m) 202 216 221 226 226 ST & LT Debt (FY1) 0.00
Weighted-Avg Diluted Shares O/S (m) 210 226 230 236 236 Financial Leases (FY1) (0.00)
End of Period Shares O/S (m) 213 219 226 226 226 A/P and Landowner's Accrural (FY1) (0.09)
Total NAVPS (C$) 9.52

OPERATIONAL DATA P/NAV (x) 0.72
Production Profile 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E F-D Shares Outstanding (m) 239
Gold Eq. Production (kGEO) 82 98 139 150 180
Total Cash Costs (US$/oz Au) 494 623 447 400 459 NAV SENSITIVITY
All-in Sustaining Cost (US$/oz Au) 680 756 861 830 836 $13.00
$12.00
$11.00
500 $1,000
NAVPS (C$)
$10.00
450 $900
$9.00
400 $800 $8.00
Gold Eq. Production (kGEO)
350 $700 $7.00

Costs (US$/oz)
$6.00
300 $600
$5.00
250 $500
$4.00
200 $400 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20%
Gold Price Opex Capex
150 $300
100 $200 MARKET DATA
Capital Structure Weighted-Avg Strike (C$) Shares (mln)
50 $100
Shares Outstanding 218.9
0 $0 Exercisable Options 2.00 12.5
2018A
2019A
2020E
2021E
2022E
2023E
2024E
2025E
2026E
2027E
2028E
2029E
2030E
Warrants 0.00 0.0

Fully Diluted Shares 231.4
Kainantu (100%) Total Cash Costs (US$/oz Au) AISC (US$/oz Au)
Top Ownership % of Outstanding Shares (mln)
RESERVES AND RESOURCES Van Eck Associates Corporation 11.2% 23.9
Tonnes Au Grade Contained RBC Global Asset Management Inc. 5.8% 12.3
As at April 1, 2020 (m) (g/t) Au (moz) 1832 Asset Management L.P. 5.4% 11.5
Proven and Probable Reserves - - - Invesco Advisers, Inc. 4.6% 9.7
M&I Resources 3.7 9.95 1.2 Sentry Investments Inc. 3.1% 6.7
Inferred Resources 13.2 7.46 3.2 Baker Steel Capital Managers LLP 2.7% 5.7
U.S. Global Investors, Inc. 2.2% 4.7
Fidelity Investments Canada ULC 1.4% 3.0
Source: National Bank Financial, Refinitiv, K92 Mining Inc.
6
K92 Mining Inc.
Disclosures
PRICE, RATING AND TARGET HISTORY: OP = Outperform, SP = Sector Perform, UP = Underperform, UR = Under Review, R = Restricted; (Source: Factset, NBF)
K92 Mining Inc. Rating History as of 12/15/2020

I:OP:$12.25
12/15/2020
10
Price (CAD)
4
0
Jan 18 Apr 18 Jul 18 Oct 18 Jan 19 Apr 19 Jul 19 Oct 19 Jan 20 Apr 20 Jul 20 Oct 20
Closing Price
RISKS:
Commodity risk: K92 Mining generates most of its revenue from the sale of gold, with the remaining revenue generated from copper, with a very minor silver component. A drop in commodity prices,
most notably gold, would negatively impact the financial outlook of the company.
Operating and Capital Costs risk: There can be no guarantee that realized operating and capital costs match our estimates due to cost overruns, local inflation or other elements. An increase in
operating and capital costs relative to our estimates would negatively impact the financial outlook of the company.
Mineral Resource risk: As with any resource estimate, there remain risks that could lead to negative geological model reconciliation. Additionally, there remains inherent risk with our estimates being
based on mineral resources, rather than mineral reserves. Any negative changes to mineral resources could negatively impact the company’s valuation and financial outlook.
ADDITIONAL COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES

K92 Mining Inc.
LEGEND FOR COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES:
2 National Bank Financial Inc. has acted as an underwriter with respect to this issuer within the past 12 months.
3 National Bank Financial Inc. has provided investment banking services for this issuer within the past 12 months.
4 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities with respect to this issuer within the past 12 months.
5 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from this issuer within the past 12 months.
6 National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has a non-investment banking services related relationship during the past 12 months.
7 The issuer is a client, or was a client, of National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate within the past 12 months.
8 National Bank Financial Inc. or its affiliates expects to receive or intends to seek compensation for investment banking services from this issuer in the next 3 months.
9 As of the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of this research report (or the end of the second most recent month if the publication date is less than 10 calendar days after
the end of the most recent month), National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate beneficially own 1% or more of any class of common equity securities of this issuer.
10 National Bank Financial Inc. makes a market in the securities of this issuer, at the time of this report publication.
11 A partner, director, officer or research analyst involved in the preparation of this report has, during the preceding 12 months provided services to this issuer for remuneration other than normal
course investment advisory or trade execution services.
12 A research analyst, associate or any other person (or a member of their household) directly involved in preparing this report has a financial interestin the securities of this issuer.
13 A partner, director, officer, employee or agent of National Bank Financial Inc., is an officer, director, employee of, or serves in any advisory capacity to the issuer.
14 A member of the Board of Directors of National Bank Financial Inc. is also a member of the Board of Directors or is an officer of this issuer.
15 A redacted draft version of this report has been shown to the issuer for fact checking purposes and changes may have been made to the report before publication.
RATING DISTRIBUTION
Outperform Sector Perform Underperform
Coverage Universe Ratings Distribution 58% 38% 1%
Investment Banking Distribution 75% 61% 33%
7
NBCFM Research | Thematic Research
December 15, 2020
INDUSTRY RATING
Special Situations
Diversified Financials: Market Weight
Commercial Services & Supplies:
Year Ahead Thematic: What Does a Weakening U.S. Dollar Mean
Underweight for Our Coverage Universe?
Containers & Packaging: Market
Weight
Trading Companies & Distributors:
As the announcement of effective vaccines has driven a risk-on trade and a tumble in the U.S.
Overweight
dollar, the CAD/USD has shifted rapidly (see our Economics and Strategy team's Forex report).
Household Products: Market Weight With 2020 thankfully coming to a close, we look ahead to 2021 and take the opportunity to explore
Retailing: Market Weight what a 1.25 exchange rate in 2021, as forecast by our economics team, means for our covered
companies with U.S. exposure. While nearly every company on our list is affected to some degree,
Diversified Consumer Services:
as outlined in our summary table (see Figure 1), we highlight HDI, PLC and AD as those with the
Market Weight
greatest U.S. exposure that report in Canadian dollars. BYD would have joined the shortlist had
Machinery: Overweight the company not announced that it will be reporting in U.S. dollars as of January 1, 2021.
(NBF Economics & Strategy Group)
Hardwoods Distribution
As ~90% of HDI's revenues are generated in the U.S., fluctuations in FX result in a meaningful
translational impact. Operationally, revenues and expenses by currency are not materially
mismatched and the company therefore does not convert a significant number of U.S. dollars,
as HDI's CAD reserves and cash flows are sufficient to fund its dividend. We lower our estimates
to account for the translational drag, but this is offset almost entirely by the addition of River
City Millwork (see our Flash), resulting in an unchanged $35 target on an unchanged 16x 2022e
EPS multiple. Outperform.
Park Lawn
PLC also generates nearly 90% of revenues south of the border. As the company continues to ramp
up its centralized cost structure in Houston, we believe the cost base will line up with U.S.-based
revenues, though the Canadian dividend represents a need for ~$13.6 million annually. We also
expect the company will begin gradually shifting the currency of its borrowing from Canadian to
U.S. dollars to better support its net exposure to the United States. The reduction in our estimates
as we introduce the FX headwind (more pronounced than in the case of HDI and AD due simply
to the timing of when we last published), leads us to lower our target to $33.50 (was $35.50) on
an unchanged 12.5x 2022e EV/EBITDA multiple. Outperform.
Alaris Equity Partners

Just over 80% of AD's revenues are in U.S. dollars, while its head office costs and significant
distribution ($48.3 million) are in Canadian dollars. Contracted distributions from partners make
hedging straightforward, however, with forward contracts for 75-90% of Canadian dollar expenses
and distributions. As the majority of the FX headwind was introduced in our last update (see
our Note), we maintain our $19 target based on a long-term DCF using a 14.4% discount rate.
Outperform.
Barbershop trims and one target increase

As we update our currency assumptions, we adjust our estimates and targets for a number of
companies on unchanged valuation multiples (see Revised Estimates): CAS to $21 (was $22), CWX
to $7.50 (was $8), GDI to $46 (was $46.50), ITP to $27 (was $27.50), RCH to $32.50 (was $33.50),
SIS to $16.50 (was $17) and UNS to $8.50 (was $8).
Analyst Zachary Evershed, CFA

(514) 412-0021 ● zachary.evershed@nbc.ca
Associate Thomas Bolland For required disclosures, please refer to the end of 8
the document.
(514) 871-5013 ● thomas.bolland@nbc.ca
Thematic Research
U.S. Dollar Exposure Summary

In advance of delving into the specifics of each company in the Revised Estimates section, we present a
summary of our covered companies’ exposure to U.S.-based revenues. For most, the FX headwind is purely
translational, though we point out a few cases where there is a mismatch between U.S. dollar revenues and
expenses. In addition to an outright hedge, a common strategy to address both translational and operational
currency risk is to hold U.S. dollar-denominated debt, and we therefore include a breakdown of debt in our
summary as well. Where possible, our geographic breakdown of revenues and currency of borrowings uses
the most recent results available. In cases where 2020 represents something of an outlier for a company’s
financial results, or where the required information is only available on an annual basis, we present 2019
figures.
Figure 1: NBF Special Situations Coverage U.S. Dollar Exposure Summary (mln)
Company USD reporting? Revenue US Canada Other Debt US Canada Other
AD Q3 LTM 81% 19% Q3/20 92% 8%
$74.6 $18.0 $162 $15
BYD USD reporting Q3 LTM 89% 11% Q3/20 100% 0%

as of 2021 $1,918.2 $230.9 $163 $0
CAS Q3 LTM 50% 30% 21% Q3/20 68% 32%

$2,531 $1,522 $1,047 $1,508 $709
CWX Q3 LTM 35% 65% 2019 17% 83%

$528.5 $976.7 $52.2 $256.9
GDI Q3 YTD 27% 73% Q3/20 30% 70%

(ESC) $285.1 $761.9 $57.4 $131.8
HDI Q3 LTM 89% 11% Q3/20 86% 14%

$1,086.0 $138.7 $103.1 $17.2
ITP USD reporting 2019 80% 9% 11% 2019 93% 0% 7%

CAD stock price US$923.2 US$104.8 US$130.4 US$475.5 US$0.0 US$33.3
KPT Q3 LTM 40% 60% Q3/20 39% 61%

$585.2 $894.0 NBF est. $326 $501
PLC Q3 LTM 87% 13% Q3/20 0% 100%

$267.3 $39.9 $0.0 $157.2
RCH Q3 LTM 35% 65% Q3/20 0% 100%

$379.8 $693.9 $0.0 $6.0
SIS Q3 LTM 57% 22% 20% 2019 1% 99%

$206.6 $80.9 $72.9 $0.5 $51.5
UNS USD reporting Q3 LTM 46% 32% 22% Q3/20 100% 0%

CAD stock price US$697 US$483 US$338 US$387.0
Source: NBF, Company reports
9
Thematic Research
Figure 2: Historical CAD/USD

1.50
1.45
1.40
1.35
1.30
1.25
1.20
1.15
1.10
Source: NBF, Refinitiv
Figure 3: AD 2021e CAD/USD Sensitivity Analysis

2021e
1.20 1.25 1.30
Revenue 106.4 110.1 113.8
Adj. EBITDA 89.2 92.6 95.9
Margin 83.8% 84.1% 84.3%
Adj. EPS 1.31 1.38 1.45
Revenue -3.3% 3.3%
Adj. EBITDA -3.6% 3.6%
Adj. EPS -4.8% 4.8%
Figure 4: HDI 2021e CAD/USD Sensitivity Analysis

2021e
1.20 1.25 1.30
Revenue 1,261.2 1,307.7 1,354.3
Adj. EBITDA 96.8 99.2 101.7
Margin 7.7% 7.6% 7.5%
Adj. EPS 1.95 2.04 2.12
Revenue -3.6% 3.6%
Adj. EPS -4.1% 4.1%
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Thematic Research
Figure 5: PLC 2021e CAD/USD Sensitivity Analysis

2021e
1.20 1.25 1.30
Revenue 322.5 333.0 343.5
Adj. EBITDA 79.9 81.6 83.3
Margin 24.8% 24.5% 24.2%
Adj. EPS 1.02 1.05 1.09
Revenue -3.2% 3.2%
Adj. EPS -3.1% 3.1%
Figure 6: UNS 2021e CAD/USD Sensitivity Analysis

2021e
1.20 1.25 1.30
Revenue 1,715.2 1,692.4 1,671.4
Adj. EBITDA 123.4 121.3 119.4
Margin 7.2% 7.2% 7.1%
Adj. EPS 0.49 0.45 0.42
Revenue 1.3% -1.2%
Adj. EBITDA 1.7% -1.6%
Adj. EPS 7.9% -7.3%
Revised estimates
Alaris
In our coverage universe, Alaris is one of the companies most exposed to swings in the CAD/USD exchange
rate as over 80% of its revenues are in U.S. dollars, while its head office costs and significant distribution are
both in Canadian dollars. However, as partner distributions are known in advance, hedging is straightforward
using forward contracts for 75-90% of Canadian dollar expenses and distributions (US$48.5 million notional
hedge as at Q3/20), while the company’s U.S. dollar debt acts as a natural hedge against U.S. partner
redemptions. The impact of the move to a 1.25 exchange rate in our models is understated for Alaris in this
Thematic, as we recently published (see our Note) and already incorporated a portion of the impact of the
weakening U.S. dollar and as such, our estimate revisions are more modest than they otherwise might have
been. We maintain our $19 target based on a long-term DCF using a 14.4% discount rate.
Figure 7: Revised Estimates
2020e 2021e 2022e
($mln) New Old New Old New Old
Total Revenue $108.5 $108.5 $110.1 $112.3 $120.4 $122.8
Adj. EBITDA $84.5 $84.5 $92.6 $95.1 $101.6 $104.4

Adj. EBITDA Margin 77.9% 77.9% 84.1% 84.7% 84.4% 84.9%
Adj. EPS (fd) $0.49 $0.49 $1.38 $1.43 $1.61 $1.67

Source: NBF
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Thematic Research
Figure 8: Summary Forecast

($mln) 2017 2018 2019 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20e 2020e 2021e 2022e
Revenue $90.4 $100.0 $115.0 $34.0 $20.2 $23.4 $30.9 $108.5 $110.1 $120.4
Adj. EBITDA $76.0 $80.8 $101.0 $21.2 $17.3 $20.1 $25.9 $84.5 $92.6 $101.6
Adj. EBITDA Margin 84.0% 80.8% 87.9% 62.4% 85.7% 85.9% 83.6% 77.9% 84.1% 84.4%
Adj. EPS (fd) $0.32 $1.65 $0.98 ($1.16) $0.45 $0.79 $0.41 $0.49 $1.38 $1.61
Source: Company reports, NBF
New Look
Up until early this year, New Look had no U.S. revenues. With the acquisition of Edward Beiner in Florida,
~3% of the company’s locations are south of the border. Given the low proportion of the business in the
United States, our downward top-line estimate revisions are minimal, and more than outweighed by an
uptick in our margin forecasts as New Look sources most of its lenses and frames from the United States,
Asia and Europe. The adjustment to our margins also remains small, however, as in 2019, the purchase of
goods exposed to foreign exchange fluctuation (both U.S. dollar and euro) totaled only ~$8.3 million. We
maintain our $45 target based on an unchanged 10x 2022e EV/EBITDA.

2020e 2021e 2022e
Revenue $264.6 $264.6 $329.9 $330.6 $344.4 $345.1
Adj. EBITDA $78.8 $78.8 $94.2 $94.0 $94.2 $94.0
Margin 29.8% 29.8% 28.5% 28.4% 27.3% 27.2%
Adj. EPS (fd) $1.09 $1.09 $1.49 $1.48 $1.64 $1.63
Source: NBF

($mln) 2017 2018 2019 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20e 2020e 2021e 2022e
Revenue $229.2 $291.0 $297.9 $68.0 $27.4 $86.9 $82.2 $264.6 $329.9 $344.4
Adj. EBITDA $42.1 $54.1 $56.4 $15.4 $1.2 $34.7 $27.4 $78.8 $94.2 $94.2
Margin 18.4% 18.6% 18.9% 22.6% 4.3% 40.0% 33.4% 29.8% 28.5% 27.3%
Adj. EPS (fd) $1.05 $1.12 $1.67 $0.09 ($0.62) $1.03 $0.59 $1.09 $1.49 $1.64
Boyd
BYD’s U.S. exposure is one of the highest in our universe at 89%. However, as of January 1, 2021, the
company will change its reporting currency to U.S. dollars from Canadian, taking the bite out of what would
otherwise have been a significant FX headwind. We leave our forecasts unchanged, as we will adjust our
Boyd estimates to reflect the change in reporting currency in a future note.
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Thematic Research
Cascades
Half of Cascades’ revenues are generated in the United States, on top of which roughly 20% of sales from
Canadian operations are made into the United States introducing a mismatch in the currencies of revenues
and expenses. Further compounding the U.S. dollar exposure, several product lines in Canada are priced in
U.S. dollars, and a strengthening Canadian dollar potentially increases the competitiveness of Cascades’
U.S.-based competitors. Helping mitigate the impact somewhat, nearly 70% of Cascades’ debt load is held in
U.S. dollars, complementing the company’s hedging policy. We lower our top-line estimates to account for
the FX headwind. We lower our margin estimates only slightly as we believe the lowered U.S.-denominated
revenues are partially offset by Cascades’ improved buying power of U.S. dollar-priced input costs (OCC,
SOP, pulp, etc.). The net impact results in a $21 target (was $22) on an unchanged sum of parts (see Figure
13).

2020e 2021e 2022e
Total sales $5,058 $5,056 $5,146 $5,240 $5,250 $5,347
Containerboard $1,892 $1,889 $1,906 $1,947 $1,945 $1,987
Boxboard Europe $1,025 $1,025 $1,148 $1,148 $1,154 $1,154
Specialty Products $459 $459 $468 $468 $473 $473
Inter-segment - Packaging ($16) ($16) ($18) ($18) ($18) ($18)
Tissue $1,584 $1,584 $1,524 $1,577 $1,585 $1,640
Inter-segment & Corporate $115 $115 $117 $117 $111 $111
Adj. EBITDA $651 $651 $717 $734 $737 $755

Margin 12.9% 12.9% 13.9% 14.0% 14.0% 14.1%
Containerboard EBITDA $391 $391 $459 $470 $465 $476

Boxboard Europe EBITDA $124 $124 $127 $127 $129 $129
Specialty Products EBITDA $60 $60 $56 $56 $57 $57
Tissue EBITDA $164 $164 $162 $169 $174 $181
Corporate ($88) ($88) ($88) ($88) ($88) ($88)
Adj. EPS $1.71 $1.71 $1.77 $1.89 $1.89 $2.02

Source: NBF

($mln) 2017 2018 2019 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20e 2020e 2021e 2022e
Total sales $4,321 $4,649 $4,996 $1,313 $1,285 $1,275 $1,185 $5,058 $5,146 $5,250
Containerboard $1,652 $1,840 $1,827 $458 $454 $506 $474 $1,892 $1,906 $1,945
Boxboard Europe $838 $933 $1,048 $272 $265 $261 $227 $1,025 $1,148 $1,154
Specialty products $703 $358 $492 $113 $120 $117 $109 $459 $468 $473
Inter-segment - Packaging ($105) ($14) ($14) ($3) ($5) ($4) ($4) ($16) ($18) ($18)
Tissue $1,268 $1,352 $1,509 $446 $424 $364 $350 $1,584 $1,524 $1,585
Inter-segment & Corporate ($35) $180 $134 $27 $27 $31 $30 $115 $117 $111
EBITDA before items $393 $489 $604 $161 $186 $162 $142 $651 $717 $737
EBITDA margin 9.1% 10.5% 12.1% 12.3% 14.5% 12.7% 12.0% 12.9% 13.9% 14.0%
Containerboard EBITDA $247 $410 $441 $99 $94 $100 $98 $391 $459 $465
Boxboard Europe EBITDA $68 $97 $108 $30 $43 $29 $22 $124 $127 $129
Specialty products EBITDA $67 $40 $53 $12 $17 $16 $15 $60 $56 $57
Tissue EBITDA $94 $17 $86 $45 $54 $36 $29 $164 $162 $174
Corporate ($83) ($75) ($84) ($25) ($22) ($19) ($22) ($88) ($88) ($88)
Adj. EPS $0.72 $0.83 $1.02 $0.42 $0.61 $0.50 $0.18 $1.71 $1.77 $1.89
13
Thematic Research
Figure 13: CAS Sum-of-Parts Valuation

2022e Multiple Value per share
Containerboard EBITDA $465 5.0x $22.46
Boxboard Europe EBITDA $129 5.5x $6.87
Specialty Products EBITDA $57 7.0x $3.87
Tissue EBITDA $174 7.5x $12.61
Corporate EBITDA ($88) 6.0x ($5.10)
EV $40.70
Net Debt ($1,721) ($16.62)

Equity Value Before Adjustments $24.08
Minority Interest Greenpac ($79) ($0.76)

Minority Interest RDM ($239) ($2.31)
Value per share 5.4x $21.00

Greenpac equity stake o f 86.3%, RDM equity stake o f 57.6%
CanWel
CanWel’s U.S. distribution and treating business results are converted to Canadian dollars for reporting
purposes, resulting in a translational headwind, but the company’s operations involve little cross-border
movement. Most of CWX’s purchases are made in the country in which the associated revenues are
generated, and margins are therefore essentially agnostic to FX movements barring head office costs, and
the dividend in Canadian dollars is amply funded by Canadian cash flows. Accounting for the translational
headwind, we trim our estimates and lower our target to $7.50 (was $8.00) on an unchanged 14.5x 2022e
EPS multiple.

($mln) 2020e 2021e 2022e
New Old New Old New Old
Revenues 1,547.2 1,547.2 1,528.0 1,562.4 1,558.5 1,593.7
Adj. EBITDA 124.5 124.5 109.7 112.3 113.8 116.5

Margin 8.0% 8.0% 7.2% 7.2% 7.3% 7.3%
Adj. EPS (fd) $0.61 $0.61 $0.47 $0.49 $0.51 $0.53

Source: NBF

($mln) 2017 2018 2019 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20e 2020e 2021e 2022e
Revenues 1,136.0 1,291.3 1,334.2 326.7 412.9 472.2 335.4 1,547.2 1,528.0 1,558.5
Adj. EBITDA 63.2 72.0 86.2 16.5 32.8 57.0 18.2 124.5 109.7 113.8
Margin 5.6% 5.6% 6.5% 5.1% 7.9% 12.1% 5.4% 8.0% 7.2% 7.3%
Adj. EPS (fd) $0.42 $0.39 $0.22 $0.01 $0.16 $0.40 $0.04 $0.61 $0.47 $0.51
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Thematic Research
Dexterra
Dexterra’s exposure to U.S. dollar fluctuations remains minimal, leading us to leave our estimates unchanged.
GDI
GDI’s Janitorial USA segment, unsurprisingly, contributes to the company’s U.S. exposure. The Technical
Services segment also does business in the United States, more so since the addition of ESC’s operations
south of the border. GDI uses the U.S. dollar tranche of its revolver to offset currency risk, of which a US$40
million balance was designated as a hedge as of the end of 2019. Our estimates require only minor
adjustments, resulting in a target trim to $46 (was $46.50) on an unchanged 9.5x 2022e EV/EBITDA multiple.

($mln) 2020e 2021e 2022e
Revenue $1,432.4 $1,436.8 $1,572.4 $1,589.6 $1,699.4 $1,717.4
Adj. EBITDA $101.5 $101.8 $102.5 $103.7 $114.6 $115.9

Margin 7.1% 7.1% 6.5% 6.5% 6.7% 6.8%
EPS (fd) $1.85 $1.86 $1.50 $1.54 $1.88 $1.92

Source: NBF

($mln) 2017 2018 2019 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20e 2020e 2021e 2022e
Revenue ($mln)
Janitorial Canada $504.5 $531.4 $539.9 $139.2 $119.0 $136.0 $148.4 $542.5 $585.1 $611.5
Janitorial USA $197.2 $238.5 $324.5 $83.1 $80.4 $83.7 $78.8 $326.0 $337.2 $400.0
Technical services $232.9 $287.6 $374.7 $121.7 $107.4 $129.1 $146.4 $504.5 $590.3 $622.8
Complementary services $55.9 $71.9 $73.6 $16.6 $25.2 $21.6 $18.2 $81.6 $84.3 $91.6
Corporate and eliminations ($20.8) ($25.9) ($27.5) ($5.8) ($5.2) ($5.0) ($6.3) ($22.3) ($24.5) ($26.5)
Total Revenue $969.7 $1,103.5 $1,285.1 $354.9 $326.7 $365.4 $385.5 $1,432.4 $1,572.4 $1,699.4
Adjusted EBITDA ($mln)

Janitorial Canada $35.0 $35.4 $35.4 $9.4 $15.2 $18.4 $14.5 $57.5 $43.6 $46.1
Janitorial USA $14.5 $17.2 $24.8 $6.1 $6.9 $7.2 $6.4 $26.6 $27.4 $33.3
Technical Services $7.0 $13.9 $21.6 $4.7 $0.1 $5.2 $8.9 $18.9 $37.0 $40.9
Complementary services $3.0 $3.8 $4.7 $1.4 $4.3 $2.4 $1.8 $9.9 $6.9 $7.7
Corporate ($9.3) ($10.3) ($9.0) ($1.6) ($3.9) ($2.9) ($2.9) ($11.3) ($12.5) ($13.4)
Total Adjusted EBITDA $50.2 $60.0 $77.5 $20.0 $22.5 $30.2 $28.7 $101.5 $102.5 $114.6
Margin 5.2% 5.4% 6.0% 5.6% 6.9% 8.3% 7.5% 7.1% 6.5% 6.7%
EPS (fd) $0.53 $0.57 $0.31 $0.20 $0.61 $0.57 $0.46 $1.85 $1.50 $1.88
Hardwoods
Most of Hardwoods’ operations are in the United States, and while the company imports a notable number of
SKUs, these purchases are generally settled in U.S. dollars, leaving little FX exposure for HDI’s U.S. business
beyond translation to Canadian dollar reporting. The company’s operations in Canada generate revenue and incur
expenses in Canadian dollars, with the major exception that they typically purchase a significant number of SKUs
from U.S. suppliers; the lower cost for products in Canadian dollars is typically passed on to customers, however,
resulting in a lower level of Canadian dollar sales when the Canadian dollar is strengthening. As the company’s
Canadian dollar reserves and cash flows are sufficient to fund the dividend, Hardwoods does not materially
convert U.S. dollars and does not maintain a hedging program. We therefore lower our estimates to account for
the translational drag, but this headwind is offset by the lift from River City Millwork (see our Flash), resulting in
an unchanged $35 target on an unchanged 16x 2022e EPS multiple. We note that we had already incorporated a
portion of the FX headwind as we updated our estimates recently (see our Note).
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Thematic Research
($mln) 2020e 2021e 2022e

Revenues 1,235.4 1,234.3 1,307.7 1,317.7 1,333.9 1,344.0
Adj. EBITDA 93.7 93.7 99.2 99.1 103.3 103.1

Margin 7.6% 7.6% 7.6% 7.5% 7.7% 7.7%
Adj. EPS (fd) $1.93 $1.93 $2.04 $2.03 $2.19 $2.19

Source: NBF

($mln) 2017 2018 2019 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20e 2020e 2021e 2022e
Revenues 1,045.8 1,134.3 1,171.9 325.1 296.0 315.8 298.5 1,235.4 1,307.7 1,333.9
Adj. EBITDA 58.0 79.0 78.9 22.8 24.4 26.1 20.5 93.7 99.2 103.3
Margin 5.5% 7.0% 6.7% 7.0% 8.3% 8.3% 6.9% 7.6% 7.6% 7.7%
Adj. EPS $1.39 $1.59 $1.48 $0.44 $0.51 $0.59 $0.39 $1.93 $2.04 $2.19
Intertape
Though Intertape’s supply chain is truly international, most purchases (such as resin and chemicals) are
conducted on a U.S. dollar basis. As ITP’s reporting currency is the U.S. dollar, the net impact on operations
is therefore minor. A translational foreign exchange tailwind on a small portion of the business due to the
strengthening Canadian dollar prompts us to raise our forecasts slightly, but as the company’s stock price is
in Canadian dollars, the net impact is a modest drag on our target, which we lower to $27 (was $27.50) on
an unchanged 14.5x 2022e EPS multiple.
Figure 20: Revised Estimates (US$)
2020e 2021e 2022e
($mln) New Old New Old New
Total sales $1,197 $1,197 $1,326 $1,318 $1,366 $1,358
Adj. EBITDA $201.0 $201.0 $211.4 $210.6 $213.8 $213.0

Margin 16.8% 16.8% 15.9% 16.0% 15.7% 15.7%
Adj. EPS $1.41 $1.41 $1.42 $1.41 $1.49 $1.48

Source: NBF
Figure 21: Summary Forecast (US$)

($mln) 2017 2018 2019 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20e 2020e 2021e 2022e
Total sales $898.1 $1,053.0 $1,158.5 $278.9 $267.8 $323.0 $327.1 $1,196.8 $1,326.1 $1,365.9
Adj. EBITDA $129.6 $140.9 $172.1 $37.5 $40.4 $64.5 $58.6 $201.0 $211.4 $213.8
Adj. EBITDA margin 14.4% 13.4% 14.9% 13.4% 15.1% 20.0% 17.9% 16.8% 15.9% 15.7%
Adj. EPS $1.07 $1.05 $0.99 $0.22 $0.22 $0.53 $0.44 $1.41 $1.42 $1.49
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Thematic Research
KP Tissue
Though KPT’s functional currency is the Canadian dollar, the FX headwind on the 40% of U.S. sales is more
than offset further down the income statement by U.S. dollar costs, expenses and debt, leading the
company to be a net purchaser of U.S. dollars. Though the stronger Canadian dollar can lead to inroads in
the Canadian market by KP Tissue’s U.S. competitors, we believe this potential impact is more than offset
by the drop in the cost of U.S. dollar-denominated pulp purchases. We therefore raise our margin estimates,
more than offsetting the slower top line, and maintain our $15 target based on an unchanged 7.5x 2022e
EV/EBITDA multiple.
2020e 2021e 2022e
Revenue $1,480.9 $1,480.9 $1,551.0 $1,586.6 $1,811.7 $1,848.5
Adj. EBITDA $204.2 $204.2 $193.9 $189.9 $245.1 $239.6

Margin 13.8% 13.8% 12.5% 12.0% 13.5% 13.0%
Source: NBF

($mln) 2017 2018 2019 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20e 2020e 2021e 2022e
Total revenue $1,280.0 $1,370.4 $1,434.1 $375.1 $386.8 $369.1 $349.9 $1,480.9 $1,551.0 $1,811.7
Consumer $1,040.4 $1,139.3 $1,186.5 $313.3 $338.2 $319.9 $299.9 $1,271.3 $1,350.6 $1,591.4
Away-from-home $233.3 $231.1 $247.7 $61.9 $48.5 $49.2 $50.0 $209.6 $200.4 $220.4
Other $6.3
Total EBITDA $144.2 $118.3 $145.0 $51.0 $64.4 $46.2 $42.6 $204.2 $193.9 $245.1
Consumer $138.2 $132.3 $158.9 $54.3 $69.6 $55.3 $50.1 $229.3 $211.9 $253.2
Away-from-home $6.2 ($9.4) ($12.7) ($1.0) ($2.1) ($3.5) ($2.0) ($8.6) ($3.5) $6.3
Other ($0.2) ($4.5) ($1.1) ($2.4) ($3.0) ($5.6) ($5.5) ($16.4) ($14.4) ($14.4)
EBITDA margin 11.3% 8.6% 10.1% 13.6% 16.7% 12.5% 12.2% 13.8% 12.5% 13.5%
Park Lawn
As PLC ramps up its centralized cost structure in Houston, we expect the company’s U.S. costs will move
toward a balance with Park Lawn’s significant U.S. revenues, though we note the $13.6 million dividend
represents a need for Canadian dollars. We expect the company will begin gradually shifting the currency of
its borrowing from Canadian to U.S. dollars to better support net exposure. With 87% of revenues (and
climbing) out of the United States and Canadian dollar reporting (for how much longer?), the FX headwind is
pronounced for Park Lawn in the reduction in our estimates. We therefore lower our target to $33.50 (was
$35.50) on an unchanged 12.5x 2022e EV/EBITDA multiple.
2020e 2021e 2022e
Revenue $320.7 $320.7 $333.0 $344.9 $346.6 $358.9
Adj. EBITDA $74.7 $74.7 $81.6 $84.8 $87.9 $91.5

Adj. EBITDA margin 23.3% 23.3% 24.5% 24.6% 25.4% 25.5%
Adj. EPS (fd) $1.05 $1.05 $1.05 $1.12 $1.31 $1.39

Source: NBF
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Thematic Research

($mln) 2018 2019 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20e 2020e 2021e 2022e
Revenue $161.4 $244.3 $74.0 $84.7 $83.8 $78.2 $320.7 $333.0 $346.6
Adj. EBITDA $34.7 $53.3 $17.1 $19.5 $19.1 $19.0 $74.7 $81.6 $87.9
Margin 21.5% 21.8% 23.1% 23.0% 22.8% 24.3% 23.3% 24.5% 25.4%
Adj. EPS (fd) $0.77 $0.80 $0.26 $0.29 $0.26 $0.24 $1.05 $1.05 $1.31
Richelieu
In addition to the translational headwind on its U.S. revenues, RCH sources a significant number of SKUs
from Asia and Europe. However, we believe Richelieu’s pricing power is sufficient to pass along increasing
costs due to a weakening U.S. dollar (for its operations south of the border) to customers, not unlike how
the company dealt with tariffs related to the recent China-United States trade wars. We therefore reduce
our revenue estimates to account for translation impacts but leave our margin estimates essentially
unchanged, leading to a modest target trim to $32.50 (was $33.50) on an unchanged 20x 2022e EPS multiple.

F2020 F2021 F2022
Sales ($mln) $1,109.2 $1,109.2 $1,213.0 $1,239.6 $1,274.9 $1,302.8
EBITDA ($mln) $145.1 $145.1 $149.7 $153.0 $160.1 $163.6

EBITDA Margin 13.1% 13.1% 12.3% 12.3% 12.6% 12.6%
EPS (fd) $1.41 $1.40 $1.49 $1.52 $1.63 $1.66

Source: NBF

($mln) 2017 2018 2019 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20e 2020e 2021e 2022e
Total revenue $942.5 $1,004.4 $1,041.6 $249.4 $248.3 $311.2 $300.4 $1,109.2 $1,213.0 $1,274.9
To manufacturers $800.0 $850.9 $897.9 $210.5 $207.0 $246.5 $252.9 $916.9 $1,022.1 $1,074.4
To retailers $142.6 $153.0 $143.7 $38.9 $41.3 $64.7 $47.6 $192.5 $190.9 $200.4
EBITDA $103.0 $106.0 $116.9 $24.9 $33.8 $49.1 $37.4 $145.1 $149.7 $160.1
EBITDA margin 10.9% 10.6% 11.2% 10.0% 13.6% 15.8% 12.4% 13.1% 12.3% 12.6%
CEWS: $3.2 $3.5
EPS (fd) $1.16 $1.17 $1.17 $0.21 $0.31 $0.50 $0.37 $1.41 $1.49 $1.63
Savaria
Though Savaria’s presence in numerous countries leads to U.S. dollar, euro, Swiss franc, pound sterling and
renminbi revenues and expenses, the company’s foreign operations are not exposed to significant currency
risk beyond translation for reporting. The company’s Canadian operations, however, are exposed to U.S.
dollar fluctuations, for which management has adopted a hedging strategy for up to 75% of expected U.S.
dollar inflows, selling U.S. dollars forward. As of the end of 2019, Savaria had hedged US$18 million for 2020,
US$18 million for 2021 and US$7.5 million for H1/22 at average exchange rates of 1.2957, 1.2854 and 1.2798,
respectively. We make modest adjustments to our estimates, resulting in a $16.50 target (was $17) on an
unchanged 12x 2022e EV/EBITDA multiple.
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Thematic Research

2020e 2021e 2022e
(Cdn$, mln) New Old New Old New Old
Revenue $355.8 $358.9 $387.8 $399.6 $419.9 $432.9
Adj. EBITDA $58.1 $58.6 $62.6 $65.2 $70.6 $73.3

Margin 16.3% 16.3% 16.1% 16.3% 16.8% 16.9%
EPS (fd) $0.53 $0.53 $0.65 $0.67 $0.80 $0.83

Source: NBF

(Cdn$, mln) F2017 F2018 F2019 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20e F2020e F2021e F2022e
Accessibility $110.1 $169.0 $265.7 $62.6 $60.2 $68.5 $67.8 $259.2 $286.9 $309.1
Patient Handling $46.4 $89.8 $86.9 $21.0 $21.3 $17.4 $19.6 $79.2 $82.5 $92.3
Adapted Vehicles $27.4 $27.7 $21.8 $4.8 $3.2 $4.9 $4.5 $17.4 $18.5 $18.5
Total Revenue $180.8 $286.0 $374.3 $88.4 $84.7 $90.8 $91.9 $355.8 $387.8 $419.9
Accessibility $23.1 $30.3 $44.2 $10.4 $12.3 $15.3 $12.5 $50.4 $53.7 $59.1
Patient Handling $6.4 $9.1 $12.1 $2.5 $2.8 $2.0 $2.2 $9.5 $10.7 $13.3
Adapted Vehicles $2.7 $2.1 $0.9 -$0.0 -$0.0 $0.3 $0.3 $0.5 $0.6 $0.6
Adj. EBITDA $31.4 $40.4 $55.6 $12.4 $14.5 $16.9 $14.4 $58.1 $62.6 $70.6
Accessibility 21.0% 17.9% 16.6% 16.5% 20.4% 22.3% 18.4% 19.4% 18.7% 19.1%
Patient Handling 13.8% 10.1% 14.0% 11.9% 13.0% 11.7% 11.4% 12.0% 13.0% 14.4%
Adapted Vehicles 9.8% 7.8% 4.0% -0.6% -0.3% 5.8% 5.8% 2.9% 3.1% 3.5%
Adj. EBITDA Margin 17.4% 14.1% 14.9% 14.0% 17.1% 18.6% 15.7% 16.3% 16.1% 16.8%
Adj. EPS (fd) $0.48 $0.40 $0.53 $0.14 $0.12 $0.17 $0.14 $0.53 $0.65 $0.80
Uni-Select
Each of Uni-Select’s business segments’ revenues and expenses are primarily in local currencies, and the
company has adopted a hedging program, leading to a low sensitivity to foreign exchange fluctuations
beyond translational impacts. We note that Uni-Select distributes only a small proportion of parts and
products from manufacturers outside North America, sourcing from North America for the most part. As
UNS’s presentation currency is the weakening U.S. dollar, FinishMaster US is unaffected, while the Canadian
Automotive Group and Parts Alliance UK (NBF Economics GBP/USD 2021 target: 1.37) benefit from a
translational tailwind and a small operational benefit on sourcing in U.S. dollars. We therefore raise our
estimates, which outweighs the headwind on the translation of the Canadian dollar stock as we raise our
target to $8.50 (was $8) on an unchanged 9.5x 2022e EPS multiple.
Figure 30: Revised Estimates (US$)
2020e 2021e 2022e
(in US$ mln) New Old New Old New Old
Sales $1,462.6 $1,453.6 $1,692.4 $1,651.9 $1,726.2 $1,684.9
Adj. EBITDA $82.3 $81.7 $121.3 $117.4 $133.9 $129.7

Adj. EBITDA margin 5.6% 5.6% 7.2% 7.1% 7.8% 7.7%
Adj. EPS (fd) ($0.29) ($0.30) $0.45 $0.38 $0.71 $0.64

Source: NBF
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Thematic Research
Figure 31: Summary Forecast (US$)

(US$mln) 2017 2018 2019 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20e 2020e 2021e 2022e
Sales
FinishMaster US $814.6 $830.0 $830.8 $202.2 $133.4 $163.5 $150.7 $649.7 $757.9 $773.1
Canadian Automotive $484.9 $503.8 $516.1 $108.9 $114.3 $137.2 $125.6 $486.1 $549.9 $560.9
Parts Alliance UK $148.7 $418.2 $392.7 $96.5 $54.9 $94.6 $80.7 $326.8 $384.5 $392.2
Total sales $1,448.3 $1,752.0 $1,739.6 $407.7 $302.5 $395.4 $357.0 $1,462.6 $1,692.4 $1,726.2
Adj. EBITDA
FinishMaster US $91.3 $76.0 $12.1 $4.5 $7.9 $8.1 $32.6 $56.2 $63.6
Canadian Automotive $31.2 $32.0 $2.7 $12.9 $19.1 $10.9 $45.5 $56.1 $58.3
Parts Alliance UK $6.0 $28.3 $4.7 $0.3 $8.7 $4.8 $18.5 $27.6 $31.0
Corporate ($11.1) ($16.8) ($2.7) ($2.8) ($2.4) ($6.4) ($14.4) ($18.6) ($19.0)
Total adj. EBITDA $117.4 $119.5 $129.9 $16.8 $14.8 $33.3 $17.3 $82.3 $121.3 $133.9
EBITDA margin 8.1% 6.8% 7.5% 4.1% 4.9% 8.4% 4.9% 5.6% 7.2% 7.8%
Adj. EPS $1.30 $1.22 $0.73 ($0.10) ($0.23) $0.18 ($0.14) ($0.29) $0.45 $0.71
Comparables
Figure 32: Alaris Comps Net
Debt/ Dividend EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA P/E
Mkt Cap. EBITDA Yield FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3 ROIC ROA
Diversified Royalty Peers

Diversified Royalty Corp US$295 5.6x 8.2% 97.5% 96.0% 99.1% 13.7x 11.5x 10.5x - 14.9x 12.8x 4.3% 4.2%
Founders Advantage Capital Corp US$106 3.4x - 41.3% 31.4% 41.8% 8.7x 10.1x 7.2x 556.0x 21.4x 15.4x 1.3% 0.7%
Crown Capital Partners Inc US$41 5.9x 0.0% -3.8% 36.4% - -155.4x 14.8x - - 5.8x - 3.8% 2.0%
Average (Diversified) 5.0x 4.1% 45.0% 54.6% 47.0% -44.3x 12.1x 8.9x 556.0x 14.1x 13.8x 3.1% 2.3%
Restaurant Royalty Peers

Pizza Pizza Royalty Corp US$225 1.3x 7.2% 6.4% 6.4% 6.4% 8.4x 7.8x 7.5x 11.6x 10.8x 10.4x 7.7% 7.6%
KEG Royalties Income Fund US$136 4.9x 5.0% - - - - - - - - - 7.1% 7.0%
Boston Pizza Royalties Income Fund US$216 2.5x 7.8% 95.5% 96.9% - 9.5x 7.6x - - 8.2x - 6.4% 5.6%
A and W Revenue Royalties Income Fund US$478 1.2x 3.5% - - - - - - - - - 15.9% 10.6%
Average (Restaurant) 2.5x 5.9% 50.9% 51.6% 6.4% 9.0x 7.7x 7.5x 11.6x 9.5x 10.4x 9.3% 7.7%
Average (All) 3.5x 5.3% 47.4% 53.4% 49.1% -23.0x 10.3x 8.4x 283.8x 12.2x 12.9x 6.6% 5.4%
Alaris Royalty Corp. $564 2.6x 7.8% 77.9% 84.1% 84.4% 9.4x 8.6x 7.9x 126.0x 11.5x 9.8x 12.0% 3.4%
Source: Company reports, Refinitiv, Bloomberg, NBF
Figure 33: New Look Comps

Share Mkt Cap Div Net debt/ EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA P/E
Price (mln) Yield EBITDA FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3
Fielmann AG € 61.00 € 5,124 0.0% - 21.0% 24.9% 25.0% 17.2x 12.9x 12.2x 48.3x 29.2x 27.0x
Grandvision NV € 24.85 € 6,323 1.4% 2.8x 16.6% 20.2% 20.9% 14.6x 10.6x 9.8x 331.3x 29.1x 24.4x
EssilorLuxottica SA € 129.20 € 56,665 1.8% 1.8x 17.0% 22.5% 24.5% 25.1x 15.8x 13.8x 69.4x 30.8x 26.7x
Safilo Group SpA € 0.78 € 216 0.0% - -2.0% 2.9% 6.0% -29.4x 19.2x 9.0x - - -
National Vision Holdings US$46.59 US$3,692 0.0% 1.7x 10.4% 11.5% 11.5% 22.6x 17.7x 16.1x 82.2x 51.7x 42.7x
Average 0.7% 2.1x 12.6% 16.4% 17.6% 10.0x 15.2x 12.2x 132.8x 35.2x 30.2x
New Look (NBF est.) $32.00 $501 0.0% 3.1x 29.8% 28.5% 27.3% 9.9x 8.0x 7.8x 29.4x 21.5x 19.5x
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Thematic Research
Figure 34: Intertape Comps
Share Mkt Cap Div Net debt/ EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA P/E FCF Yield
Price (mln) Yield EBITDA FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3
Tape
3M Co US$174.68 US$99,836 3.4% 1.8x 26.6% 26.9% 27.0% 13.5x 12.7x 12.1x 20.3x 18.3x 16.9x 5.9% 5.7% 6.4%
Average (Tape) 3.4% 1.8x 26.6% 26.9% 27.0% 13.5x 12.7x 12.1x 20.3x 18.3x 16.9x 5.9% 5.7% 6.4%
Plastics
Aptargroup Inc US$130.26 US$8,311 1.1% 1.7x 20.3% 21.0% 21.4% 15.7x 14.3x 13.3x 35.6x 31.2x 28.2x 2.9% 2.9% 3.5%
Avery Dennison Corp US$150.98 US$12,410 1.7% 1.9x 15.1% 15.2% 15.5% 13.7x 13.1x 12.4x 21.8x 20.7x 18.4x 4.4% 4.7% 5.0%
Berry Global Group Inc US$54.24 US$7,062 0.0% 4.5x 18.2% 18.3% 18.2% 7.5x 7.3x 7.2x 9.8x 9.1x 8.5x - - -
CCL Industries Inc C$60.23 C$10,630 1.2% 1.5x 21.4% 21.0% 20.9% 11.1x 10.7x 10.5x 20.2x 19.5x 18.7x -19.7% -5.9% -0.5%
Greif Inc US$48.18 US$2,274 3.8% 3.7x 14.3% 15.0% - 7.0x 6.6x - 12.3x 10.9x - 9.8% 10.8% 13.1%
Myers Industries Inc US$19.14 US$665 2.9% - 14.0% 14.3% 14.8% 9.5x 8.4x 7.6x 20.4x 17.6x 15.8x 3.7% 5.6% 8.9%
Sealed Air Corp US$44.61 US$6,780 1.5% 3.8x 21.4% 21.2% 21.4% 9.8x 9.6x 9.3x 14.2x 13.6x 12.7x 6.0% 6.5% 7.4%
Silgan Holdings Inc US$35.85 US$3,915 1.4% 4.5x 15.4% 15.7% 15.8% 9.5x 9.0x 8.7x 11.9x 11.5x 10.7x - - -
Sonoco Products Co US$60.15 US$6,006 2.9% 1.7x 14.9% 15.4% 15.5% 9.6x 9.4x 9.2x 17.8x 17.2x 16.4x 7.6% 4.2% 7.0%
Winpak Ltd C$43.56 C$2,825 0.3% - 22.2% 22.5% 22.6% 9.3x 8.9x 8.9x 21.0x 20.1x 20.3x - - -
Average (Plastics) 1.6% 3.0x 17.0% 17.2% 17.7% 10.1x 9.5x 9.4x 18.2x 16.8x 16.2x 2.1% 4.1% 6.3%
Paper packaging
Cascades Inc. (NBF Est.) C$15.08 C$1,561 2.1% 3.0x 12.9% 13.9% 14.0% 5.2x 4.8x 4.5x 8.8x 8.5x 8.0x 19.6% -1.0% 13.3%
Graphic Packaging Holding Co US$16.40 US$4,338 1.9% 3.4x 16.5% 16.5% 16.9% 7.8x 7.6x 7.4x 14.6x 13.5x 11.9x 6.7% 7.6% 13.4%
International Paper Co US$49.15 US$18,873 4.3% 0.9x 15.2% 16.0% 16.3% 7.0x 6.5x 6.3x 17.1x 13.3x 12.2x - - -
Packaging Corp of America US$134.19 US$12,487 3.0% 1.1x 18.4% 19.4% 19.9% 11.4x 10.3x 10.0x 22.6x 19.2x 18.1x - - -
Westrock Co US$44.44 US$11,299 1.9% 3.4x 16.7% 16.9% 18.3% 6.9x 6.8x 6.3x 13.3x 12.4x 10.3x - - -
Average (Paper packaging) 2.8% 2.2x 16.7% 17.2% 17.8% 8.3x 7.8x 7.5x 16.9x 14.6x 13.1x 6.7% 7.6% 13.4%
Average (All) 2.0% 2.7x 17.6% 17.9% 18.4% 9.5x 9.0x 8.7x 17.6x 16.1x 15.2x 4.7% 4.1% 7.7%
ITP (NBF est.) C$25.39 C$1,517 3.1% 2.8x 16.8% 15.9% 15.7% 8.5x 7.9x 7.6x 14.4x 14.3x 13.7x 9.0% 7.9% 9.6%
Figure 35: Cascades & KP Tissue Comps

Share Mkt Cap Div Net debt/ EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA
Price (mln) Yield EBITDA FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3
Containerboard
International Paper Co US$49.15 US$18,873 4.3% 0.9x 15.2% 16.0% 16.3% 7.0x 6.5x 6.3x
Packaging Corp of America US$134.19 US$12,487 3.0% 1.1x 18.4% 19.4% 19.9% 11.4x 10.3x 10.0x
Westrock Co US$44.44 US$11,299 1.9% 3.4x 16.7% 16.9% 18.3% 6.9x 6.8x 6.3x
Average (Containerboard) 3.1% 1.8x 16.8% 17.4% 18.2% 8.4x 7.8x 7.5x
Boxboard Europe
Holmen AB 386.20 kr 63,251 kr 0.9% 1.2x 21.1% 20.0% 20.5% 19.5x 18.8x 17.9x
Mayr Melnhof Karton AG € 160.40 € 3,208 2.0% 0.5x 15.9% 16.3% 16.3% 8.4x 7.8x 7.5x
Metsa Board Oyj € 8.27 € 2,938 1.2% 0.9x 16.9% 17.1% 16.9% 10.1x 9.8x 9.6x
Stora Enso Oyj € 15.21 € 12,037 2.0% 2.3x 15.1% 17.8% 18.6% 11.3x 9.2x 8.6x
Average (Boxboard Europe) 1.5% 1.2x 17.2% 17.8% 18.1% 12.3x 11.4x 10.9x
Specialty Products
CCL Industries Inc $60.23 $10,630 1.2% 1.5x 21.4% 21.0% 20.9% 11.1x 10.7x 10.5x
Greif Inc US$48.18 US$2,274 3.8% 3.7x 14.3% 15.0% - 7.0x 6.6x -
Sealed Air Corp US$44.61 US$6,780 1.5% 3.8x 21.4% 21.2% 21.4% 9.8x 9.6x 9.3x
Sonoco Products Co US$60.15 US$6,006 2.9% 1.7x 14.9% 15.4% 15.5% 9.6x 9.4x 9.2x
Winpak Ltd $43.56 $2,825 0.3% - 22.2% 22.5% 22.6% 9.3x 8.9x 8.9x
Average (Specialty Products) 1.9% 2.7x 18.8% 19.0% 20.1% 9.3x 9.0x 9.4x
Tissue
Clearwater Paper Corp US$38.66 US$626 0.0% 2.9x 14.8% 12.2% 11.7% 5.0x 6.2x 6.0x
Kimberly-Clark Corp US$135.82 US$46,259 3.1% 1.5x 23.6% 23.3% 23.5% 11.9x 11.9x 11.5x
Svenska Cellulosa SCA AB 141.80 kr 99,786 kr 0.0% 4.6x 21.5% 30.1% 31.9% 27.4x 21.3x 19.4x
Average (Tissue) 1.0% 3.0x 20.0% 21.9% 22.4% 14.8x 13.1x 12.3x
Average (All) 1.9% 2.2x 18.2% 18.9% 19.6% 11.0x 10.2x 10.0x
Cascades (NBF est.) $15.08 $1,561 2.1% 3.0x 12.9% 13.9% 14.0% 5.2x 4.8x 4.5x
KP Tissue (NBF est.) $11.40 $110 6.4% 3.4x 13.8% 12.5% 13.5% 6.1x 6.9x 6.5x

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Thematic Research
Figure 36: GDI Comps

Share Mkt Cap Net debt/ EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA P/E
Price (mln) EBITDA FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3
Canadian Diversified Service Providers

Altus Group LTD1 $49.63 $1,999 1.4x 17.1% 18.7% 20.5% 22.4x 18.5x 15.7x 30.6x 25.8x 22.2x
Dexterra Group Inc. (NBF est.) $6.20 $402 2.0x 7.7% 9.3% 9.8% 14.3x 7.2x 5.7x 18.8x 18.6x 13.2x
K-Bro Linen Inc $37.63 $395 3.1x 20.8% 19.1% 19.7% 12.3x 11.5x 10.3x 151.1x 38.0x 22.3x
Morneau Shepell Inc 2 $31.52 $2,149 3.2x 20.4% 20.5% 20.7% 13.6x 13.0x 12.2x 41.0x 40.4x 36.1x
Average (Canada) 2.4x 16.5% 16.9% 17.7% 15.7x 12.6x 11.0x 60.4x 30.7x 23.4x
International Comparables
ABM Industries Inc US$41.10 US$2,659 1.4x 6.2% 5.8% 5.3% 8.6x 9.1x 10.1x 16.3x 17.2x 16.8x
Aramark US$38.10 US$9,427 6.6x 6.3% 9.5% 9.9% 20.0x 10.7x 9.8x - 21.0x 16.9x
Compass Group PLC £1,436.00 £25,616 2.4x 7.6% 9.5% 10.3% 19.0x 12.9x 11.1x 47.6x 23.8x 20.4x
Healthcare Services Group Inc US$26.29 US$1,867 - 7.5% 7.5% 7.9% 12.6x 12.6x 11.4x 20.2x 20.7x 18.3x
Iss A/S DKK 116 DKK 21,454 6.0x -1.2% 4.8% -44.4x 11.0x - 23.8x
Sodexo SA € 72.66 € 10,714 3.7x 6.1% 7.5% 7.9% 13.1x 9.7x 9.0x 29.8x 16.9x 14.8x
Average (International) 4.0x 5.4% 7.4% 8.3% 4.8x 11.0x 10.3x 28.5x 20.6x 17.4x
Average (All) 3.3x 9.8% 11.2% 12.5% 9.2x 11.6x 10.6x 44.4x 24.6x 20.1x
GDI (NBF est.) $42.80 $958 2.0x 7.1% 6.5% 6.7% 11.0x 10.5x 8.9x 23.2x 28.5x 22.8x
1. Covered by our colleague Richard Tse, 2. Covered by our colleague Jaeme Gloyn
Figure 37: Industrial Comps

Net 3 Yr
Debt/ Dividend EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA P/E Revenue FCF Yield
Mkt Cap. EBITDA Yield FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3 ROIC ROA CAGR FY1 FY2 FY3
Distributors/Manufacturers
Boise Cascade Co US$1,834 - 0.9% 7.2% 5.4% 5.7% 4.7x 6.6x 6.2x 10.0x 15.1x 13.8x 6.4% 4.9% 8.5% 9.6% 10.3% 6.8%
BMC Stock Holdings Inc US$3,121 0.2x 0.0% 8.2% 8.3% 8.7% 9.4x 8.9x 8.1x 17.4x 16.3x 14.0x 7.9% 6.3% 6.0% 4.9% 7.0% 5.7%
GMS Inc US$1,179 3.1x 0.0% 9.3% 9.2% 9.3% 6.9x 7.2x 7.0x 9.5x 9.3x 8.5x 1.3% 1.1% 10.6% 12.9% 9.5% 11.3%
Builders FirstSource Inc US$4,140 2.4x 0.0% 7.6% 7.8% 7.2% 8.4x 7.8x 8.0x 12.9x 12.1x 11.2x 9.6% 7.2% 6.7% 4.7% 6.7% 7.3%
Beacon Roofing Supply Inc US$2,636 2.7x 0.0% 6.4% 7.1% 7.4% 11.7x 10.1x 9.4x 18.4x 13.2x 11.4x -1.6% -1.2% 15.9% 7.7% 6.9% 8.7%
Universal Forest Products Inc US$3,395 - 0.9% 8.0% 7.9% 8.0% 8.6x 8.7x 8.3x 14.9x 14.8x 14.2x 12.8% 10.3% 11.5% 0.7% 8.1% 7.3%
Fortune Brands Home & Security US$11,541 1.7x 1.3% 16.5% 16.9% 17.7% 13.2x 11.6x 10.4x 20.3x 17.6x 15.1x 9.2% 7.0% 3.2% 4.5% 4.5% 5.6%
Spectrum Brands Holdings Inc US$2,992 3.6x 2.4% 14.9% 14.8% 15.1% 8.7x 8.1x 7.8x 18.9x 15.0x 12.8x 2.0% 1.6% -9.0% - - -
HD Supply Inc. US$8,667 nmf 0.0% 14.1% 14.7% 16.9% 8.8x 11.5x 14.3x 16.0x 25.8x 28.4x 12.2% 10.1% 3.5% 5.7% 5.7% 3.9%
Masonite International Corporation US$2,328 1.7x 0.0% 16.3% 17.1% 17.7% 7.9x 6.9x 6.4x 15.7x 12.6x 11.0x 3.1% 2.6% 3.2% 7.9% 7.4% 9.2%
Armstrong World Industries Inc. US$3,718 2.1x 1.1% 34.4% 34.6% 35.1% 13.4x 12.7x 11.5x 21.6x 19.8x 16.3x 18.4% 14.5% 5.2% 5.4% 5.3% 5.8%
Mohawk Industries Inc. US$9,365 1.1x 0.0% 13.9% 15.3% 15.9% 8.3x 7.1x 6.6x 16.2x 13.2x 11.6x 7.3% 5.6% 3.7% 10.0% 7.7% 8.0%
W. W. Grainger US$21,492 1.1x 1.5% 13.0% 13.5% 13.9% 15.2x 14.1x 12.9x 24.5x 21.8x 19.4x 21.5% 15.1% 3.4% 4.1% 4.1% 4.8%
Fastenal Company US$28,255 0.1x 2.0% 24.2% 23.9% 22.9% 20.8x 20.3x 19.7x 33.3x 31.9x 29.4x 25.8% 22.2% 7.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.8%
Veritiv Corporation US$297 3.4x 0.0% 2.6% 2.8% - 4.8x 4.6x - 373.6x 9.6x - -1.7% -1.2% 1.5% - - -
Average (Distributors) 1.9x 0.7% 13.1% 13.3% 14.4% 10.1x 9.7x 9.8x 41.5x 16.5x 15.5x 9.0% 7.1% 5.4% 6.2% 6.6% 6.7%
Homebuilders
D.R. Horton Inc US$25,653 0.4x 1.1% 15.1% 16.0% 16.2% 9.1x 6.8x 6.0x 12.0x 9.0x 8.0x 17.2% 13.8% 9.7% - - -
PulteGroup Inc US$11,292 0.6x 1.3% 18.2% 17.4% 17.5% 6.2x 5.4x 4.9x 8.6x 7.4x 6.2x 11.2% 9.7% 9.9% 11.3% 11.0% -
Average (Homebuilders) 0.5x 1.2% 16.7% 16.7% 16.8% 7.6x 6.1x 5.5x 10.3x 8.2x 7.1x 14.2% 11.8% 9.8% 11.3% 11.0%
Retailers
Home Depot Inc US$285,924 1.0x 2.3% 16.2% 15.8% 16.2% 17.2x 15.0x 14.5x 26.4x 22.5x 21.5x 37.4% 23.6% 4.5% 3.9% 4.9% 4.5%
Lowe's Companies Inc US$117,302 1.3x 1.5% 10.8% 12.5% 13.2% 16.5x 11.7x 11.5x 28.1x 18.4x 17.2x 19.3% 11.6% 5.1% 2.3% 6.3% 5.9%
Average (Retailers) 1.1x 1.9% 13.5% 14.1% 14.7% 16.9x 13.3x 13.0x 27.2x 20.4x 19.3x 28.4% 17.6% 4.8% 3.1% 5.6% 5.2%
Average (All) 1.6x 0.9% 13.5% 13.7% 14.7% 10.5x 9.7x 9.6x 36.7x 16.1x 15.0x 11.5% 8.7% 5.8% 6.1% 6.7% 6.5%
NBF Coverage
Richelieu Hardware (NBF) $2,056 0.0x 0.7% 13.1% 12.3% 12.6% 14.0x 13.1x 11.9x 26.3x 24.7x 22.7x 14.5% 11.0% 6.5% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6%
Hardwoods Distribution (NBF) $565 1.9x 1.5% 7.6% 7.6% 7.7% 8.3x 7.7x 7.2x 13.7x 13.0x 12.0x 8.0% 5.3% 14.1% 11.9% 9.7% 11.5%
CanWel Building Materials (NBF) $593 2.8x 6.3% 8.0% 7.2% 7.3% 6.9x 7.7x 7.3x 12.4x 16.1x 14.9x 2.4% 2.0% 10.9% 14.8% 12.3% 12.7%
22
Thematic Research
Figure 38: Park Lawn Comps

Sales EBITDA
Share Mkt Cap Div Net Debt/ growth growth EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA
Price (mln) Yield EBITDA (FY1) (FY1) FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3
U.S. publicly traded comps:
Carriage Services US$29.50 US$529 1.4% 5.2x 16.9% 28.6% 31.1% 32.4% 32.9% 10.0x 9.3x 9.0x
Service Corporation US$49.35 US$8,435 1.7% 3.5x 7.0% 16.7% 30.1% 29.8% 29.3% 11.4x 11.8x 11.9x
Average (U.S.) 1.5% 4.3x 11.9% 22.7% 30.6% 31.1% 31.1% 10.7x 10.6x 10.5x
Non-U.S. publicly traded comps:

InvoCare Ltd AUD 11.40 AUD 1,642 2.5% 2.3x -8.3% -21.4% 23.5% 26.6% 27.8% 16.9x 13.5x 12.2x
Dignity PLC GBP 698 GBP 349 0.0% 5.1x -2.2% -16.9% 23.6% 23.3% 23.4% 12.9x 13.2x 12.9x
Average (International) 1.3% 3.7x -5.2% -19.1% 23.5% 24.9% 25.6% 14.9x 13.3x 12.5x
Average (All peers) 1.4% 4.0x 3.3% 1.8% 27.1% 28.0% 28.3% 12.8x 12.0x 11.5x
Park Lawn (NBF est.) $30.23 $905 1.5% 2.7x 31.3% 45.1% 23.3% 24.5% 25.4% 15.1x 13.6x 11.4x
Figure 39: Savaria Comps

Share Mkt Cap Div Net debt/ EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA
Price (mln) Yield EBITDA FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3
Handicare Group AB SEK$39.00 SEK$2,298.62 1.9% 2.9x 11.6% 13.7% 13.6% 10.8x 8.5x 8.4x
Arjo AB (publ) SEK$62.25 SEK$15,820.99 1.0% 2.9x 20.9% 21.9% 22.6% 11.2x 10.3x 9.6x
Hill-Rom Holdings Inc US$97.94 US$6,286 0.9% 2.6x 21.0% 22.0% 24.0% 13.5x 12.2x 10.7x
Invacare Corp US$9.11 US$312 0.0% - 3.6% 5.3% 6.5% 17.9x 11.4x 9.1x
Stryker Corp US$234.06 US$86,789 1.1% 1.5x 26.6% 28.7% 29.4% 24.2x 19.6x 17.8x
Average 1.0% 2.5x 16.7% 18.3% 19.2% 15.5x 12.4x 11.1x
Savaria (NBF est.) $14.10 $720 3.4% 0.5x 16.3% 16.1% 16.8% 12.8x 11.7x 10.2x
Figure 40: Uni-Select Comps

Share Mkt Cap Net debt/ EBITDA margin EV/EBITDA P/E
Price (mln) EBITDA FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3 FY1 FY2 FY3
Paint Manufacturers:
Axalta $28.91 $6,761 4.7x 20.0% 22.0% 22.7% 12.9x 10.2x 9.5x 24.3x 16.5x 14.7x
Akzo Nobel EUR 86.66 EUR 16,722 0.9x 16.4% 17.4% 18.0% 13.1x 11.7x 10.8x 23.5x 20.0x 18.0x
PPG $144.12 $33,484 1.5x 17.3% 18.2% 18.8% 15.7x 13.7x 12.7x 25.0x 20.9x 18.6x
Average (Paints) 2.4x 17.9% 19.2% 19.9% 13.9x 11.9x 11.0x 24.3x 19.1x 17.1x
U.S. Auto parts:

Advance Auto Parts $159.84 $10,691 - 10.7% 11.3% 11.5% 9.8x 9.3x 8.9x 18.4x 16.6x 15.0x
AutoZone $1,179.37 $26,678 1.3x 21.8% 21.8% 22.0% 10.7x 10.3x 10.0x 15.2x 13.6x 12.5x
Genuine Parts $96.59 $13,826 1.5x 7.9% 8.5% 9.1% 11.8x 10.7x 9.6x 18.4x 16.6x 15.2x
LKQ Corp $37.25 $11,142 2.1x 11.4% 11.9% 12.4% 10.5x 9.6x 8.8x 15.0x 13.4x 12.0x
O'Reilly Automotive $449.08 $32,424 1.1x 23.5% 22.3% 22.0% 13.1x 13.6x 13.0x 19.3x 19.3x 17.6x
Lawson Products $49.71 $444 - 9.6% 9.6% 9.8% 12.7x 10.6x 9.6x 24.0x 21.3x 16.5x
Average (US parts) 1.5x 15.1% 15.1% 15.4% 11.2x 10.7x 10.1x 17.3x 15.9x 14.4x
Auto Service and Repair:

Boyd (NBF Est.) C$224.38 C$4,818 2.2x 14.0% 14.5% 14.7% 18.8x 14.9x 12.8x 91.0x 45.7x 37.1x
Monro $50.15 $1,647 3.8x 13.9% 15.3% - 14.0x 11.5x - 41.5x 25.5x 22.5x
Penske $58.12 $4,555 6.5x 4.3% 4.0% 4.4% 10.6x 10.3x 8.7x 9.1x 8.4x 7.8x
Average (Service) 4.2x 10.7% 11.3% 9.6% 14.5x 12.2x 10.8x 47.2x 26.6x 22.5x
European Auto parts:

Inter Cars PLN 228.00 PLN 3,230 2.5x 4.3% 4.4% 4.4% 11.7x 11.1x 10.4x 11.6x 10.8x 9.9x
Mekonomen SEK 93.25 SEK 5,261 3.0x 13.0% 14.0% 14.0% 6.6x 5.9x 5.8x 10.4x 8.3x 7.6x
Average (Euro parts) 2.7x 8.6% 9.2% 9.2% 9.2x 8.5x 8.1x 11.0x 9.5x 8.8x
Average (All) 2.6x 13.7% 14.3% 14.5% 12.3x 11.0x 10.1x 24.8x 18.1x 16.0x
Uni-Sélect (NBF est.) C$7.83 C$332 4.3x 5.6% 7.2% 7.8% 9.7x 6.3x 5.5x -21.5x 13.9x 8.8x
23
Thematic Research
Disclosures
Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust Rating History as of 12/15/2020

OP:$20.00 OP:$18.00 OP:$18.50 OP:$22.00 OP:$21.00 OP:$21.50 SP:$18.00 R:NM SP:$18.00 SP:$19.00 SP:$20.00 SP:$22.00
03/12/2018 05/08/2018 07/24/2018 09/17/2018 11/06/2018 03/06/2019 04/17/2019 05/22/2019 06/12/2019 07/25/2019 11/06/2019 01/08/2020
25
20
15
Price (CAD)
10
5
SP:$19.00 SP:$18.00 SP:$8.00 SP:$9.00 SP:$11.00 SP:$14.00 I:OP:$14.50 I:OP:$15.00 OP:$16.50 I:OP:$17.00 R:NM
03/02/2020 03/06/2020 03/20/2020 05/06/2020 06/17/2020 06/22/2020 07/27/2020 07/29/2020 10/29/2020 11/06/2020 11/18/2020
OP:$19.00
12/08/2020
Closing Price
Boyd Group Services Inc. Rating History as of 12/15/2020

OP:$120.00 OP:$125.00 OP:$130.00 SP:$125.00 OP:$145.00 OP:$155.00 OP:$175.00 OP:$195.00 OP:$205.00 OP:$240.00 OP:$200.00
02/26/2018 05/15/2018 08/13/2018 11/14/2018 03/11/2019 03/21/2019 05/15/2019 07/18/2019 08/14/2019 01/20/2020 03/18/2020
240
220
200
180
160
Price (CAD)
140
120
100
80
R:NM OP:$220.00 OP:$235.00 SP:$230.00
04/28/2020 05/14/2020 08/12/2020 10/19/2020
Closing Price
Dexterra Group Inc. Rating History as of 12/15/2020

OP:$2.40 OP:$2.75 OP:$3.00 R:NM OP:$3.50 OP:$3.80 OP:$3.20 OP:$3.30 OP:$3.00 OP:$2.75 OP:$2.35 OP:$2.00
03/14/2018 04/09/2018 05/25/2018 06/06/2018 06/27/2018 10/02/2018 12/04/2018 05/03/2019 08/01/2019 08/02/2019 08/14/2019 10/01/2019
20
15
10
Price (CAD)
0
OP:$1.75 OP:$1.25 OP:$1.75 OP:$1.25 OP:$6.25 I:OP:$6.00 OP:$7.50
01/27/2020 03/24/2020 03/26/2020 03/27/2020 07/15/2020 10/07/2020 11/11/2020
Closing Price
24
Thematic Research
GDI Integrated Facility Services Inc. Rating History as of 12/15/2020

OP:$20.00 OP:$21.50 OP:$24.00 OP:$23.00 OP:$26.00 OP:$30.50 OP:$34.00 OP:$36.00 OP:$42.00 OP:$43.00 OP:$41.00 OP:$41.50
05/10/2018 08/09/2018 11/07/2018 02/12/2019 03/01/2019 05/10/2019 08/09/2019 11/01/2019 11/28/2019 03/02/2020 04/20/2020 05/11/2020
50
45
40
35
30
Price (CAD)
25
20
15
10
R:NM OP:$41.50 OP:$42.00 OP:$46.50
05/15/2020 05/22/2020 08/10/2020 11/11/2020
Closing Price
Cascades Inc. Rating History as of 12/15/2020

OP:$21.00 OP:$19.00 OP:$20.00 OP:$18.00 OP:$16.00 OP:$12.50 OP:$11.00 SP:$9.00 SP:$10.00 OP:$13.00 OP:$14.50 OP:$15.00
02/05/2018 03/01/2018 04/10/2018 05/10/2018 10/22/2018 01/21/2019 02/28/2019 04/17/2019 05/09/2019 07/02/2019 08/12/2019 11/04/2019
18
16
14
12
Price (CAD)
10
8
6
OP:$13.50 OP:$14.00 SP:$14.00 SP:$13.50 SP:$14.50 SP:$16.50 OP:$19.50 R:NM OP:$22.50 OP:$22.00
01/20/2020 02/27/2020 04/13/2020 05/07/2020 07/20/2020 08/06/2020 09/25/2020 10/05/2020 10/23/2020 11/12/2020
Closing Price
Hardwoods Distribution Inc. Rating History as of 12/15/2020

OP:$25.00 OP:$23.00 OP:$21.00 UR:UR I:OP:$15.00 OP:$16.00 OP:$15.50 OP:$18.00 OP:$18.50 OP:$16.00 OP:$16.50 OP:$18.00
03/16/2018 07/30/2018 11/06/2018 01/17/2019 01/30/2019 04/10/2019 05/13/2019 07/08/2019 08/13/2019 10/08/2019 10/16/2019 11/12/2019
30
25
20
Price (CAD)
15
10
5
OP:$22.50 OP:$18.00 OP:$18.50 OP:$21.00 OP:$23.00 OP:$27.50 OP:$29.50 OP:$27.50 OP:$29.50 OP:$35.00
12/19/2019 03/20/2020 05/06/2020 05/28/2020 07/14/2020 08/10/2020 09/21/2020 09/21/2020 11/09/2020 11/09/2020
Closing Price
25
Thematic Research
CanWel Building Materials Group Ltd. Rating History as of 12/15/2020

OP:$8.00 OP:$8.50 OP:$7.50 OP:$7.00 UR:UR I:SP:$5.00 SP:$4.50 SP:$3.75 OP:$6.00 OP:$4.75 OP:$3.75 SP:$4.00
03/08/2018 05/08/2018 09/13/2018 11/08/2018 01/17/2019 02/06/2019 05/09/2019 10/09/2019 12/19/2019 03/13/2020 05/15/2020 06/15/2020
8
7
6
5
Price (CAD)
4
3
2
OP:$5.50 OP:$6.50 OP:$7.50 OP:$6.50 OP:$7.50 OP:$8.00
07/13/2020 07/30/2020 09/21/2020 09/21/2020 11/05/2020 11/09/2020
Closing Price
KP Tissue Inc. Rating History as of 12/15/2020

SP:$12.50 SP:$10.50 SP:$9.50 SP:$7.00 SP:$9.00 SP:$8.00 OP:$10.00 OP:$12.00 OP:$12.50 OP:$16.00 OP:$16.50 OP:$15.00
03/08/2018 05/10/2018 08/09/2018 10/22/2018 01/23/2019 03/07/2019 11/07/2019 01/20/2020 05/08/2020 08/06/2020 09/23/2020 11/05/2020
16
14
12
Price (CAD)
10
6
Closing Price
New Look Vision Group Inc. Rating History as of 12/15/2020

OP:$38.00 SP:$34.00 SP:$35.00 SP:$36.00 OP:$36.00 OP:$40.00 OP:$36.00 OP:$38.50 OP:$39.50 OP:$45.00
02/14/2018 03/19/2019 03/19/2019 08/09/2019 11/07/2019 01/07/2020 03/23/2020 05/13/2020 08/10/2020 11/09/2020
40
35
30
Price (CAD)
25
20
Closing Price
26
Thematic Research
Park Lawn Corporation Rating History as of 12/15/2020

OP:$30.00 R:NM OP:$30.00 OP:$32.00 OP:$30.00 OP:$28.00 OP:$29.00 R:NM OP:$29.00 OP:$31.50 OP:$33.00 OP:$31.50
03/01/2018 04/16/2018 05/04/2018 08/15/2018 03/14/2019 03/14/2019 03/26/2019 04/01/2019 04/23/2019 05/15/2019 06/17/2019 08/13/2019
35
30
25
Price (CAD)
20
15
OP:$33.00 OP:$34.50 OP:$21.50 OP:$34.50 OP:$21.50 OP:$24.00 R:NM OP:$26.00 OP:$31.00 OP:$35.00 OP:$35.50
11/13/2019 01/02/2020 03/31/2020 03/31/2020 04/03/2020 05/13/2020 06/25/2020 07/14/2020 08/14/2020 11/02/2020 11/13/2020
Closing Price
Richelieu Hardware Ltd. Rating History as of 12/15/2020

OP:$35.00 OP:$33.00 UR:UR I:OP:$29.00 OP:$26.00 OP:$28.00 OP:$28.50 SP:$29.50 SP:$27.00 SP:$30.00 SP:$30.50 SP:$33.00
04/02/2018 11/28/2018 01/17/2019 01/24/2019 04/04/2019 07/04/2019 10/03/2019 01/23/2020 04/13/2020 06/17/2020 07/09/2020 09/21/2020
40
35
30
Price (CAD)
25
20
15
UP:$33.00 SP:$33.50
10/09/2020 12/07/2020
Closing Price
Intertape Polymer Group Inc. Rating History as of 12/15/2020

I:OP:$23.00 OP:$21.50 OP:$22.50 OP:$21.00 OP:$21.50 OP:$14.00 SP:$14.00 SP:$12.50 SP:$13.50 SP:$17.50 OP:$22.50 SP:$27.50
11/30/2018 05/09/2019 08/08/2019 11/11/2019 02/10/2020 03/13/2020 04/20/2020 05/14/2020 07/13/2020 08/13/2020 11/12/2020 12/09/2020
30
25
20
Price (CAD)
15
10
5
Closing Price
27
Thematic Research
Savaria Corporation Rating History as of 12/15/2020

OP:$20.00 R:NM OP:$20.00 OP:$21.00 SP:$21.00 SP:$17.00 OP:$17.00 OP:$17.50 OP:$17.00 OP:$15.00 OP:$16.00 OP:$12.50
03/09/2018 04/18/2018 05/04/2018 07/10/2018 09/20/2018 11/14/2018 02/20/2019 03/28/2019 05/16/2019 08/15/2019 11/14/2019 03/16/2020
22
20
18
16
14
Price (CAD)
12
10
8
6
OP:$13.00 OP:$12.50 OP:$13.00 OP:$13.50 OP:$14.50 OP:$15.50 OP:$17.00
03/24/2020 03/25/2020 03/26/2020 05/13/2020 07/15/2020 08/12/2020 10/27/2020
Closing Price
Uni-Select Inc. Rating History as of 12/15/2020

OP:$30.00 OP:$27.50 OP:$26.50 SP:$25.00 SP:$24.00 SP:$17.00 SP:$15.50 SP:$12.00 UP:$10.00 UP:$7.50 SP:$6.50 SP:$5.00
02/20/2018 05/03/2018 08/13/2018 11/14/2018 02/13/2019 02/20/2019 07/25/2019 11/13/2019 02/19/2020 03/16/2020 04/16/2020 05/14/2020
30
25
20
15
Price (CAD)
10
5
0
SP:$8.00 SP:$8.50 SP:$7.50 SP:$8.00
07/01/2020 07/30/2020 10/19/2020 11/16/2020
Closing Price
RISKS:
AD.UN
Portfolio Company Performance: Given AD’s business of providing alternative financing to private companies, any prolonged period of elevated impairment losses/bad debt expenses would negatively
impact profitability.
Capital Deployment: Should AD not be able to deploy capital on a consistent basis, AD’s revenue/EBITDA growth would be negatively impacted.
Competition / Redemptions: Should AD experience intense competition from private equity firms or should portfolio company redemptions rise, AD’s revenue/EBITDA growth would be negatively
impacted.
BYD
M&A risk: M&A represents a major growth driver for Boyd. Sourcing, executing and integrating acquisitions represent a potential risk.
Labour risk: Growing unprocessed work linked to an industry-wide technician shortage could limit same-store sales growth.
DXT
End-market spending: Horizon North's revenue stream is not contracted but rather is due to end-market customer need. A change in demand for HNL's services could materially alter the revenue
growth profile for one or more of HNL's divisions.
Bed Cancellations: HNL has had bed cancellations by a major customer in the past, which could occur again in the future.
28
Thematic Research
Excess U.S. Manufacturing Capacity: Excess manufacturing capacity in the United States has resulted in emerging competition. The result of this emerging competition could result in lower margins
for modular construction projects.
GDI
Acquisitions-related risk: M&A represents a major growth driver for GDI. Sourcing, executing and integrating acquisitions represent a potential risk.
Personnel risk: The company is dependent on a handful of key employees, representing a potential risk.
CAS
Competitive risk: Cascades’ industry is dominated by a handful of major players. The harsh competitive dynamics are a potential risk.
Financial leverage risk: Though trending lower, Cascades’ debt ratios are above the industry average.
Operating risk: Unfavourable movements in exchange rates, selling prices and raw material costs can meaningfully impact the company’s financial results.
HDI
Sourcing risk: Hardwoods sources products internationally, which exposes its supply chain to trade tensions.
Macroeconomic risk: Demand for HDI’s products depends on macroeconomic conditions over which the company has no control, including home improvement, new residential and commercial
construction, access to financing and housing affordability.
CWX
Customer concentration risk: CanWel’s top two customers made up more than 10% of total sales in 2019.
Macroeconomic risk: Demand for CanWel’s products depend on macroeconomic conditions over which the company has no control, including home improvement, new residential and commercial
construction, access to financing and housing affordability.
Weather-related risk: The company’s logging business is impacted by unfavourable weather conditions, representing a potential risk.
KPT
Execution risk: The major capacity expansion project (TAD2) includes construction, start-up and commercialization risk.
KPLP Dependence: KPT is highly dependent on KPLP’s underlying performance, distributions and administrative services.
Operating risk: Unfavourable movements in exchange rates, selling prices and raw material costs can meaningfully impact the company’s financial results.
BCI
M&A risk: M&A represents a major growth driver for New Look. Sourcing, executing and integrating acquisitions represent a potential risk.
Technological risk: The industry evolves rapidly on the technological front, and integrating new technologies and equipment is a potential risk.
PLC
M&A risk: M&A represents a major growth driver for Park Lawn. Sourcing, executing and integrating acquisitions represent a potential risk.
Operating risk: Demand for PLC’s products and services is highly regional and difficult to predict in the short term, representing a risk to quarterly growth forecasts.
RCH
Personnel risk: CEO Richard Lord is an instrumental part of RCH’s success and his departure would be considered a negative.
Foreign exchange risk: A weak CAD negatively impacts RCH as most costs are denominated in U.S. dollars while 70% of revenues are in CAD.
Execution risk: Acquisitions are an important part of RCH’s strategy and therefore potential failure to complete transactions or difficulties in the integration are inherent risks.
ITP
Foreign exchange risk: ITP reports its financial results in U.S. dollars, while a portion of its business is conducted in other currencies, introducing translation risk.
Acquisition and integration risk: ITP's growth strategy includes M&A. There is no certainty that the company will be able to source accretive opportunities given the competition for acquisitions in the
industry, and successful integration represents another source of risk.
29
Thematic Research
SIS
Concentration risk: SIS is highly dependent on key distributors as well as large customers, representing concentration risk.
Product risk: Warranties and product-related liabilities are inherent risks of the majority of Savaria’s product lines.
Execution risk: Acquisitions are an important part of Savaria’s strategy and therefore potential failure to complete transactions or difficulties in the integration are inherent risks.
UNS
Competitive risk: Despite being a leader in all three of the company’s segments, UNS competes against large peers, representing a risk.
Strategic alternatives review pending: Uni-Select has begun a process to evaluate strategic alternatives. The process failing to generate an attractive option is a risk.
Leadership risk: Uni-Select is currently running with an interim CEO, pending the completion of the strategic alternatives review, and may not be able to find a suitable replacement in a reasonable
time period.

Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Dexterra Group Inc.
New Look Vision Group Inc. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10
Boyd Group Services Inc.
CanWel Building Materials Group Ltd. 2, 3, 4, 5, 7, 136
Cascades Inc. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
GDI Integrated Facility Services Inc. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
Hardwoods Distribution Inc. 135
Intertape Polymer Group Inc. 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
KP Tissue Inc. 2, 3, 5, 7
Kinross Gold Corp 6, 7
Medical Facilities Corporation 2, 3, 5, 7
Park Lawn Corporation 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
Richelieu Hardware Ltd. 9, 10
Savaria Corporation 2, 3, 5, 6, 7
Sherritt International Corporation 2, 3, 5, 7
Uni-Select Inc. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 27
27 Patricia Curadeau-Grou is an officer, director or employee or a member of the Board of Directors of this company or an advisor or officer of this company.
135 An NBF analyst attended a tour of a distribution centre in Langley, BC on December 18, 2019. None of the analyst's expenses were paid for by the issuer.
136 An NBF analyst attended a tour of a wood treating facility in Woodland, CA on December 19, 2019. A portion of the analyst's expenses were paid for by the issuer.
RATING DISTRIBUTION
30
NBCFM Research | Daily Bulletin
Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels
Industry Rating: Market Weight (NBF Economics & Strategy Group)
December 15, 2020
Pembina Pipeline Corp. STOCK DATA

52-Week High and Low ($) 53.79-15.27
Hitting the play button on paused expansions…
Dividend per Share ($) 2.52
Dividend Yield (%) 7.5
PPL / PBA STOCK RATING TARGET EST. TOTAL RETURN
(TSX; NYSE) Sector Perform C$36.00 14.8% Shares Outstanding (Mln) 548.0
C$33.55; US$26.30 (Unchanged) (Was C$35.00) Shares Outstanding - FD (Mln) 550.0
Market Capitalization ($Mln) 18,385.4
2021 outlook & updated ESG scorecard Enterprise Value ($Mln) 35,539.5
NBCFM ESTIMATES & VALUATION

Introducing 2021 guidance…
Fiscal Y/E December 2019A 2020E 2021E
Pembina introduced 2021 guidance including EBITDA of $3.2-$3.4 bln (NBF:
$3.2 bln) and a $785 mln capital budget, reactivating the $775 mln (was EBITDA ($Mln) 3,061.0 3,185.7 3,203.1
$950 mln) Phase VII Peace Pipeline Expansion and the $120 mln Empress EV/EBITDA (x) 13.8 11.2 11.1
Cogeneration Facility growth projects. Elsewhere, the company officially Maintenance Capex 70.3 141.2 210.0
suspended its joint venture PDH/PP facility indefinitely, while keeping the
($Mln)
Jordan Cove LNG project on life support with modest regulatory / permitting
spend. Free-EBITDA ($Mln) 2,990.8 3,044.5 2,993.1
EV/Free-EBITDA (x) 14.1 11.7 11.9
Boosting ESG scorecard 11 pts… AFFO/sh ($) 4.22 3.79 3.75

P/AFFO (x) 11.4 8.9 8.9
Pembina released its 2020 Sustainability report on Dec. 3rd (here), which
included enhanced disclosure on key ESG performance indicators, especially Dividend / Share ($) 2.36 2.52 2.52
pertaining to Social criteria (voluntary turnover rate and diversity), Dividend Yield (%) 4.9 7.5 7.5
ultimately boosting our ESG score by 11 points to 72 (was 61/100). Adj. Payout Ratio (%) 56 66 67
Considering GHG emissions, PPL experienced a ~1% increase in 2019
Net Debt / EBITDA (x) 4.7 4.9 4.9
emissions y/y to ~3.087 MT CO2e, however, we note that GHG emissions
All figures in C$ unless otherwise noted
relative to EBITDA has consecutively decreased over the past five years,
Source: Refinitiv, Company Reports and NBF Estimates
from ~1,550 tCO2e/$1 mln in 2015 to ~1,000 tCO2e/$1 mln in 2019, reflecting
Pembina’s ability to grow its operations while also reducing its carbon
footprint. Pembina will look to establish a formal corporate GHG strategy in
2021 alongside emissions intensity targets.
STOCK PERFORMANCE (Source: FactSet)

Estimate revisions: bumping long-term cash flows
(P) (V 100000)
60 140
Incorporating the 2021 outlook, partially offset by higher maintenance
120
capex, our 2021e AFFO/sh bumps up to $3.75 (was $3.70), with 2021e D/ 50
100
EBITDA unchanged at 4.9x. 40 80
30 60
40
Target up $1 to $36; Maintain Sector Perform 20
20
In line with the accretion to our long-term estimates, our target steps up
Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20
$1 to $36. We commend PPL for its ESG performance, however, in light of
the recent federal announcement to raise the carbon tax to $170/tonne by
2030, we maintain our cost of equity assumption pending Pembina releasing
a corporate GHG emissions strategy along with targets that directly address COMPANY PROFILE
the new carbon tax environment. Combined with a 12-month total return of Pembina owns several oil and NGLs pipeline systems and a 50%
interest in an ethylene storage facility. Pembina has four lines of
14.8%, we maintain our Sector Perform rating.
business - conventional toll pipelines, oil sands pipelines, gas services
and the midstream business. The conventional toll pipelines transport
crude oil and NGLs volumes for a toll rate, while the oil sands pipelines
Analyst Patrick Kenny, CFA ● (403) 290-5451 ● patrick.kenny@nbc.ca earn a rate of return on capital invested.
Associate Amber Brown, MBA ● (403) 290-5624 ● amber.brown@nbc.ca
Associate Zach Warnock ● (403) 355-6643 ● zach.warnock@nbc.ca 31 For required disclosures, please refer to the end of the document.
Pembina Pipeline Corp.
2021 outlook and capital budget…

Pembina introduced 2021 EBITDA guidance of $3.2-$3.4 bln (NBF: $3.2 bln) and announced a $785 mln
capital budget for 2021, reactivating the $775 mln (was $950 mln) Phase VII Peace Pipeline Expansion and
the $120 mln Empress Cogeneration Facility growth projects. Meanwhile, the company emphasized its
commitment to disciplined capital deployment, with the company foregoing its joint venture PDH/PP
facility indefinitely, while noting that its 2021 capital program is fully funded by cash flow from operating
activities after dividends.
Figure 1: PPL 2021 Capital Budget
Capex Allocated Percentage of Total

Division ($mln) Budget (%)
Pipelines Division $540 69%
Facilities Division $140 18%
Marketing & New Venture Division $25 3%
Contributions to Equity Investments $55 7%
Corporate $25 3%
Total Capital Expenditures $785 100%
Note: Capital budget is shown in Canadian dollars based on 1.33 USD/CAD exchange rate.
Source: Company Reports, NBF
Pipelines Division: Pembina allocated $540 mln (69%) of its 2020 capex towards its Pipelines division,
focused primarily on advancing the development of its Peace Pipeline system, including the re-sanctioned
Phase VII expansion project. Recall, PPL previously reduced its 2020 capital spending by $900 mln to $1.1 bln
in March, deferring indefinitely $1.55 bln worth of Pipeline expansions (Peace Phases VII to IX), the PDH/PP
facility, the Prince Rupert propane export terminal expansion and the Empress Cogeneration facility.
However, with throughput on the company’s conventional pipelines business steadily improving, increasing
by 100 mbpd since late April, and now expected to be on par with the beginning of 2020, Pembina has re-
sanctioned the Phase VII with a revised capital cost of $775 mln (was $950 mln).
Figure 2: Peace Pipeline System Map
The $175 mln decrease in cost for Phase VII reflects a revamping of the project to optimize the scope of its
customers’ development plans, with the 20-inch pipeline and associated infrastructure in the LaGlace-
Valleyview-Fox Creek corridor now having a capacity of 160 mbpd (potential to expand up to 240 mbpd),
while effectively bringing total capacity on the Peace and Northern pipelines system to 1.1 mmbpd. Of note,
Pembina already invested $300 mln (~40%) of the project as of September 30th and now expects the assets to
be placed into service in H1/2023 (was H1/2021). Overall, Phase VII will be used to meet the growing
condensate supply in the WCSB, with Pembina renegotiating terms with certain customers to align with long-
term objectives and securing an additional 600,000 net acres through area-of-dedication (AOD) agreements.
32
Meanwhile, Pembina had only spent a modest $40 mln on value engineering work on the previously sidelined
Phase VII and IX Peace expansions, which would complete the segregation of LVP and HVP across the system
and increase deliverable capacity into Edmonton up to 1.3 mmbpd.
Facilities Division: The focus of the company’s ~$140 mln Facilities division capex is towards the $120 mln
re-sanctioned Empress Cogeneration Facility, which will enable Pembina to be more efficient, utilizing heat
recovery and providing a second source of power for the Empress NGL Extraction Facility that was recently
placed into service. The 45 MW cogeneration facility will be the second cogen facility completed by the
company, providing ~90% of the site’s power requirements and reducing GHG emissions by 88,000 tCO 2e. As
of September 30th, Pembina had invested $12 mln of the project’s $120 mln cost (tracking under budget)
with a revised in-service date of in Q1/23 (was mid-2022), subject to regulatory and environmental
approvals.
Meanwhile, PPL is currently evaluating two additional cogen opportunities at other locations, while also
recently securing an option from two key customers for NGL extraction rights on up to 750 mmcf/d of
natural gas at its joint-venture entity, Veresen Midstream. If the option is exercised, it would provide the
company with a 15-year agreement for an additional ~50 mbpd of ethane-plus mix. In addition, Pembina
entered, directly and through its joint venture affiliate Veresen Midstream, into long-term, take-or-pay
arrangements with Pipestone Energy Corp. (TSX: PIPE; $0.85 TP; Sector Perform; Payne) for a fully-
integrated service offering, including natural gas gathering and processing by Veresen Midstream and liquids
fractionation and transportation services by Pembina. The arrangement will utilize the remaining 25 mmcf/d
of frim capacity at Veresen Midstream’s Hythe expansion project (+125 mmcf/d) on a 10-year term,
commencing in Q4/2022, with volumes beginning to ramp in Q4/21. Elsewhere, Pembina continues to expect
the ~$250 mln Prince Rupert Export Terminal (25 mbpd) will be placed into service in Q1/21 (was Q4/20),
while evaluating the potential expansion of PRT by 25 mbpd in addition to using mid-size gas carriers to
improve economies of scale and competitiveness, with access to incremental markets such as Asia.
Marketing & New Ventures: With all pre-FID capital investment related to non-permitting activities for
Jordan Cove previously suspended, the company allocated a minimal $25 mln to its Marketing & New
Ventures division, highlighting that the majority of capital outlay will go towards ongoing regulatory and
permitting activities. Recall, US$10 bln Jordan Cove LNG export terminal was inherited by Pembina following
the Veresen Inc. acquisition in 2017, with the goal of connecting the company’s acquired 50% interest in the
natural gas Ruby pipeline to the Oregon Coos bay via the Pacific Connector Pipeline, ultimately delivering
LNG off the west coast. However, Pembina halted all pre-FID capital investment back in May 2019, followed
by a delay in a potential in-service date of 2025. Meanwhile, with the uncertainty in respect to the timing of
the ultimate approval of Jordan Cove, in addition to the current natural gas spot rates being below the
existing tariff rates on firm contracts that will expire in mid-2021, Pembina expects to take a material
impairment on its investment in Ruby in Q4/20, with the project currently having a carrying value of $1.3
bln as of September. 30th. Elsewhere, as a result of the uncertainty created by the ongoing COGID-19
pandemic, Pembina and its 50/50 joint venture partner Petrochemical Industries Company K.S.C. (PIC) of
Kuwait, have suspended execution of the integrated propane dehydration and polypropylene upgrading
facility (PDH/PP Facility) indefinitely. As such, Pembina expects to recognize a significant impairment on its
investment in Q4/20.
ESG update: Pembina released its 2020 Sustainability report on December 3rd (here), which included
enhanced disclosure on key ESG performance indicators, especially pertaining to Social criteria, ultimately
boosting PPL’s ESG score by 11 points to 72 (was 61/100). Meanwhile, Pembina disclosed in the report that it
will look to expand on its GHG emissions disclosure in 2021 as part of its Carbon Stand initiative, including
establishing of a formal corporate GHG strategy, obtaining a third-party assurance for its emissions
inventory, alongside releasing emissions intensity targets.
33
Figure 3: PPL ESG Balanced Scorecard
Source: Company Reports, NBF Estimates
Disclosure: The company’s second Sustainability report was developed with reference to the Global
Reporting Initiative (GRI), the Sustainability Accounting Standards Board (SASB) and the Task Force on
Climate-related Disclosure (TCFD), including enhanced disclosure on key ESG performance indicators that
were not previously incorporated into its 2018 report. Meanwhile, Pembina announced a few new targets
related to Board diversity and recently appointed Janet Loduca as its General Counsel and Vice President
Legal and Sustainability, boosting PPL’s disclosure by four points to 17/25 and signifying a stronger
commitment to formally incorporating ESG into its organization.
Environmental: Pembina experienced a one-point increase in its Environment score to 13/25, with lower
GHG emissions relative to EBITDA and strong water management, offset by a modest uptick in pipeline spills.
PPL experienced a ~1% increase in GHG emissions y/y, with Scope 1 and 2 emissions stepping up from ~3.035
million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent (Mt CO2e) in 2018 to ~3.087 MT CO2e in 2019. However, looking
at GHG emissions relative to EBITDA, PPL has consecutively decreased this metric over the past five years,
from ~1,550 tCO2e/$1 mln to 1,000 tCO2e/$1 mln.
Looking forward to 2020, we anticipate an increase to the company’s absolute emissions, given that Pembina
did not include the Kinder Morgan Canada assets and the U.S. portion of the Cochin pipeline within its 2019
GHG emissions, which were acquired on December 16, 2019. Meanwhile, PPL will generate a full year’s
worth of emissions from the Duvernay II facility (ISD Nov. 2019), with partial emissions from its Empress
Infrastructure project (ISD Q4/20), Duvernay III (ISD Q4/20) and Hythe developments (ISD Q4/20) likely being
modestly offset by a decrease in emissions from its cogeneration plant at Redwater. Elsewhere, PPL
provided increased disclosure around its waste and water management methods, with PPL decreasing its
water withdrawal and consumption by ~15% y/y, but experiencing a modest uptick in its total non-hazardous
and hazardous waste generation. In addition, Pembina experienced a modestly higher number and volume of
reportable spills, albeit the company still safely transporting 99.9999% of the volumes shipped in 2019.
34
Figure 4: Pembina’s GHG Emissions
Note: GHG emissions are based on majority-owned and operated control in accordance with the GHG Protocol.
Note: The increase in emissions from 2017 to 2018 was largely a result of the Veresen Inc. acquisition in the fall of 2017.
(1) GHG emissions do not include Kinder Morgan Canada Limited and the U.S. portion of the Cochin Pipeline system, which were
acquired on December 16, 2019. GHG emissions also do not include certain Veresen Midstream assets (i.e., Tower/Saturn/Sunrise)
given that the company does not operate these assets.
Social: Pembina experienced a six-point increase in its Social score to 22/25, primarily as a result of the
company providing quantitative disclosure on voluntary turnover rate and employee diversity. We note that
Pembina maintained a 4.9% voluntary turnover rate between 2018 and 2019, while the company increased
the percentage of females in management (not including executives) to above 25%, with total female
employees also making up 27% of the 2019 total workforce in Canada. Considering employee safety, Pembina
experienced a modest increase in its employee total recordable injury frequency rates per 200,000 hours to
0.34 (2018: 0.25), however, the contractor injury rate decreased to 1.22 in 2019 (2018: 1.58). Looking at
operational safety, we highlight that Pembina increased its in-line pipeline inspections by ~15% y/y to 3,810
kms, representing ~30% of its total pipeline length. Elsewhere, Pembina contributed $14.5 mln to community
investment in 2019, up 27% y/y and equating to 0.47% of EBITDA, which represents the highest amongst its
peers based on percentage of EBITDA (peer average: 0.26%).
Governance: The Governance score stayed even at 20/25, with the company having a Board of directors with
~80% independents, ~30% females and an average tenure of ~6 years. Of note, we consider a director with
over 12 years of experience as a non-independent. Elsewhere, we highlight that Pembina implemented two
Board diversity targets, which include maintaining 30% female and male representation on the Board and at
least 40% of the independent directors belonging to one of the four designated groups in the Employment
Equity Act (women, disability, aboriginal people and visible minority). Meanwhile, we note that President &
CEO, Michael Dilger received $1.1 mln as a base salary in 2019 and ~$6.9 mln in incentives (~86% at risk). Mr.
Dilger has lead the company through an unprecedented period growth over the last number of years,
successfully executing two large acquisitions, including the $9.7 bln Veresen deal in 2017 and the $4.35 bln
Kinder Morgan Canada and U.S. Cochin pipeline acquisition at the end of 2019, and completing numerous
expansions on the company’s crown jewel Peace pipeline system.
35
Figure 5: ESG Balanced Scorecard

(1)
Disclosure Current Previous Change Peer Average
ESG Reporting Standards 5 4 4 0 3
Annual Sustainability Report 5 5 5 0 3
Metrics Easily Displayed 5 5 4 1 4
Targets Easily Displayed 5 2 0 2 1
Targets Reported if Achieved or Not Achieved 5 1 0 1 1
Disclosure Total 25 17 13 4 13
(1)
Environmental Current Previous Change Peer Average
GHG Emissions Relative to Peers 4 2 2 0 3
GHG Emissions Intensity Reduction Progress 4 3 2 1 2
GHG Emissions Reduction Plan Outlined 4 n/a n/a n/a 1
Water & Waste Management 4 2 1 1 2
Biodiversity Management 4 3 3 0 2
Pipeline Releases, Inspections & Replacement 5 3 4 -1 3
Environmental Total 25 13 12 1 12
Social Current Previous Change Peer Average (1)

Employee Voluntary Turnover 4 4 0 4 2
Employee Diversity 4 3 1 2 2
Safety 4 3 4 -1 3
System Reliability & Cybersecurity 4 4 3 1 2
Community Investment 4 4 4 0 3
Indigenous Engagement 5 4 4 0 4
Social Total 25 22 16 6 16
(1)
Governance Current Previous Change Peer Average
Female Representation on the Board 5 5 4 1 4
Independent Representation on the Board 5 4 5 -1 4
Tenure on the Board 5 5 4 1 5
Compensation tied to Stock Performance & ESG 5 3 4 -1 2
Auditors 5 3 3 0 3
Governance Total 25 20 20 0 18
Total Score 100 72 61 11 59

(1) Peers include ALA, ENB, GEI, IPL, KEY, PPL, SPB, TRP and TWM.
Target up $1 to $36; Maintain Sector Perform

Incorporating the reactivated Peace Phase VII Expansion and Empress Cogen Facility, partially offset by
higher run-rate maintenance capex, our target steps up $1 to $36, which is based on a risk-adjusted dividend
yield of 7.5% (unchanged) applied to our 2021e dividend of $2.52/sh, a 12.5x multiple (unchanged) of our
2021e Free-EBITDA and our DCF/sh valuation of $38.50 (was $37.50).
Meanwhile, we commend the company for its ESG performance, however, in light of the recent federal
announcement to raise the carbon tax to $170/tonne by 2030, we maintain our cost of equity assumption
until Pembina releases a corporate GHG emissions strategy/targets that directly addresses the new carbon
tax environment. Based on a 12-month total return of 14.8%, we maintain Sector Perform rating.
Figure 6: Valuation Summary

Methodology Metric Valuation
DDM 7.50% $33.25
EV/Free-EBITDA 12.50x $36.50
DCF Model 4.5% $38.50
Equally Weighted Avg. $36.00
Source: NBF Estimates
36
Figure 7: Summary Table

2020e 2021e 2020e 2021e
Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised Previous Revised
SUMMARY INFORMATION ($mln) SHARES OUTSTANDING (mln)
EBITDA 3,186 3,186 3,078 3,203 Average Shares - Basic 549.8 549.8 550.0 550.0
Pipelines 2,146 2,146 2,051 2,068 Ending Shares - Basic 548.0 548.0 550.0 550.0
Facilities 1,011 1,011 982 1,090 Ending Shares - FD 549.8 549.8 550.0 550.0
Marketing & New Ventures 158 158 200 200
Corporate (130) (130) (155) (155) PER SHARE AMOUNTS
FFO 2,224 2,224 2,180 2,275 Net Debt $25.81 $25.81 $24.63 $25.71
Maintenance Capital (141) (141) (147) (210) EBITDA $5.81 $5.81 $5.60 $5.82
AFFO 2,082 2,082 2,033 2,065 FFO - Basic $4.04 $4.04 $3.96 $4.14
Dividends 1,385 1,385 1,386 1,386 FFO - FD $4.04 $4.04 $3.96 $4.14
Growth Capital 1,296 1,296 50 675 AFFO - Basic $3.79 $3.79 $3.70 $3.75
Dispositions/(Acquisitions) - - - - AFFO - FD $3.79 $3.79 $3.70 $3.75
Adj. Free Cash Flow(1) 1,385 1,385 1,386 1,386 Earnings - Basic $2.16 $2.16 $2.32 $2.49
Equity Issued (net) - - - - Earnings - FD $2.16 $2.16 $2.32 $2.49
Ending Net Debt(2) 15,619 15,619 15,021 15,614 Dividends $2.52 $2.52 $2.52 $2.52
KEY LEVERAGE METRICS RATIOS
D / EBITDA (2) 4.9x 4.9x 4.9x 4.9x FFO payout ratio 62% 62% 64% 61%
(2)
D / Cap 51% 51% 48% 49% AFFO payout ratio 66% 66% 68% 67%
CF / D (2)(3) 15% 15% 15% 15% Earnings payout ratio n/a n/a n/a n/a
CF / Interest (2)(4) 5.8x 5.8x 5.6x 5.7x DRIP participation 0% 0% 0% 0%
(1) AFFO less growth capital.

(2) Ending Net Debt includes 50% preferred equity and full proportionate debt.
(3) FFO before changes in working capital divided by average 2-year total debt.
(4) FFO before changes in working capital plus net interest expense divided by interest on debt less interest income.
Figure 8: Liquidity Analysis (LHS) and Debt Maturities (RHS)

($mln) Q4 2020e 2021e 2020
EBITDA (Prop. Cons.) 771 3,203 Entity Type USD/CAD Amount ($ mln) Rate (%) Date
AFFO 501 2,065 Pembina Pipeline Debt amortization of equity investees CAD $63 unknown 2020
Less growth capex (433) (620)
Less acquisition - -
Add disposition - - 2021
Free cash flow 68 1,445 Entity Type USD/CAD Amount ($ mln) Rate (%) Date
Less dividends (347) (1,386) Pembina Pipeline Debt amortization of equity investees CAD $130 unknown 2021
Add DRIP / Stock options - - Pembina Pipeline Sr unsecured MTNs 5A CAD $350 3.43% 29-Mar-21
Free cash flow (net of dividends) (279) 59 Pembina Pipeline Sr unsecured MTNs Series 1 CAD $250 4.89% 2021
Available Cash Resources:
Cash balance (as at Sep. 30/20) 31 3,598
2020, $63
Credit facilities(1) 5,654 n/a
Drawn (June 30/20)(1) (1,745) n/a 2021, $772
Debt Maturities(2) (63) (772)
Liquidity Position 3,598 2,885
Annual debt
Liquidity/Credit Capacity(1) 64% 51%
maturities
AFFO payout: 66% 67%
Leverage metrics:
D/EBITDA (3) 4.9x 4.9x
PPL Guardrails 3.75-4.25x 3.75-4.25x 2022+, $13,684
FFO/D 15% 15%
S&P Target >15% >15%
(1) Includes Equity Accounted Investee Credit Facilities.

(2) Includes debt amortization on debt of Equity accounted Investees.
(3) NBF D/EBITDA includes 50% pref equity; PPL Guardrail D/EBITDA excludes pref equity.
Figure 9: Credit Analysis

$mln Q4 2019 Q1 2020 Q2 2020 Q3 2020 Q4 2020e Q1 2021e Q2 2021e Q3 2021e Q4 2021e
Adj. EBITDA LTM 3,061 3,118 3,142 3,202 3,186 3,164 3,186 3,177 3,203
% change 4% 2% 1% 2% 4% -1% 1% 0% 1%
Debt/EBITDA(1) 4.7x 4.8x 4.8x 4.8x 4.9x 4.9x 4.9x 4.9x 4.9x
Debt/Capital(1) 43% 44% 44% 45% 46% 44% 44% 44% 44%
EBITDA/Interest(1) 4.9x 7.4x 7.3x 7.1x 4.3x 6.7x 6.6x 6.6x 3.9x
(1)
FFO/Debt 16% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15% 15%
(1) Includes 50% preferred equity

Source: NBF Estimates, Company Reports
37
Disclosures
Pembina Pipeline Corp. Rating History as of 12/14/2020

OP:$54.00 OP:$55.00 OP:$56.00 OP:$58.00 OP:$57.00 OP:$58.00 OP:$61.00 OP:$60.00 OP:$62.00 OP:$61.00 OP:$32.00 OP:$37.00
01/29/2018 02/23/2018 08/03/2018 11/02/2018 02/01/2019 02/22/2019 03/21/2019 08/21/2019 01/28/2020 02/28/2020 03/23/2020 05/08/2020
55
50
45
40
35
Price (CAD)
30
25
20
15
OP:$39.00 SP:$35.00
08/07/2020 11/09/2020
Closing Price
RISKS:
Volume Throughput – With the Company having some fee-for-service contracts for the processing, transporting and storing of natural gas, natural gas liquids (NGLs) and other commodities, the
Company is exposed to volume throughput risk.
Market Commodity Risk – The Company could be adversely affected by volatility in commodity prices, which are a result of supply and demand dynamics, the increase or decrease in price of propane,
refined fuels and other commodities, regulatory requirements, the price of raw materials and other factors like weather.
Counterparty and Contract Risk – With the Company having some contracts in place with shorter duration, there could be a risk in the Company’s ability to renew contracts on the same or similar terms
and conditions which could result in loss of sales volumes and a reduction in growth opportunities. The Company is exposed to credit risk relating to its counterparties who hold long-term contracts.
Regulatory / Political / Environment Risk – Changes to regulatory frameworks and political landscape may adversely impact future earnings and cash flow generated by existing assets and future
investment in growth opportunities. Failure to comply with additional or new regulations or legislature could result in a number of consequences which could have an adverse effect on the Company’s
operations, earnings, financial condition and cash flows. Future environmental laws and regulations surrounding greenhouse gas emissions and climate change could result in additional capital
expenditures and/or reduced profitability.

Pembina Pipeline Corp. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9, 10
AltaGas Ltd. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
Enbridge Inc. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7
Gibson Energy Inc. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7
Inter Pipeline Ltd. 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 9
Keyera Corp. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7
Pipestone Energy Corp.
TC Energy Corp. 2, 3, 4, 5, 7
Tidewater Midstream and Infrastructure Ltd. 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 10
38
RATING DISTRIBUTION
39
1. World: Evolution of the pandemic
Daily new cases per million population by region, 7-day moving average
700
New cases per million
650 USA
600
Sweden
550
500
450
400
350
300 United
Kingdom
250 Euro Zone
200
Canada
150
100
50 Rest of
world
0
2020m 3 2020m 4 2020m 7 2020m10 2021m 1
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
2. Developed countries: Perspective on COVID-19 cases and deaths

New cases and new deaths in Europe and North America, 7-day moving average
720,000 # of people # of people 7,200

680,000 6,800
640,000 6,400
600,000 6,000
560,000 Deaths (R) 5,600
520,000 5,200
480,000 4,800
440,000 4,400
400,000 Cases (l) 4,000
360,000 3,600
320,000 3,200
280,000 2,800
240,000 2,400
200,000 2,000
160,000 1,600
120,000 1,200
80,000 800
40,000 400
0 0
2020m1 2020m4 2020m7 2020m10 2021m1
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)

40
3. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries
Daily change in cases and in deaths, 7 day moving average (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
New cases (left axis) New deaths (right axis)
World United States
cases deaths cases deaths

260,000 2,600
1,200,000 12,000
240,000 2,400
1,100,000 11,000
220,000 2,200
1,000,000 10,000
200,000 2,000
900,000 9,000
180,000 1,800
800,000 8,000
160,000 1,600
700,000 7,000
140,000 1,400
600,000 6,000
120,000 1,200
500,000 5,000 100,000 1,000
400,000 4,000 80,000 800
300,000 3,000 60,000 600
200,000 2,000 40,000 400
100,000 1,000 20,000 200
0 0 0 0
2020m1 2020m4 2020m7 2020m10 2021m1 2020m1 2020m4 2020m7 2020m10 2021m1
NBF Economics and Strategy

Canada Germany

6,800 340
24,000 480
6,400 320
6,000 300 22,000 440
5,600 280
20,000 400
5,200 260
4,800 240 18,000 360
4,400 220
16,000 320
4,000 200
3,600 180 14,000 280
3,200 160 12,000 240

2,800 140
10,000 200
2,400 120
2,000 100 8,000 160
1,600 80
6,000 120
1,200 60
800 40 4,000 80
400 20
2,000 40
0 0
2020m1 2020m4 2020m7 2020m10 2021m1 0 0
2020m1 2020m4 2020m7 2020m10 2021m1
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE, Public Health Canada, INSPQ)
Italy Belgium

36,000 900 20,000 360
18,000 320
32,000 800
16,000 280
28,000 700
14,000 240
24,000 600
12,000 200
20,000 500
10,000 160
16,000 400
8,000 120
12,000 300
6,000 80
8,000 200 4,000 40
4,000 100 2,000 0
0 0 0 -40
2020m1 2020m4 2020m7 2020m10 2021m1 2020m1 2020m4 2020m7 2020m10 2021m1

41
3. Evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic, selected countries (continued)
Daily change in cases and in deaths (data via Johns Hopkins CSSE)
New cases (left axis) New deaths (right axis)
Denmark India

3,000 30
120,000 1,200
2,800 28
110,000 1,100
2,600 26
100,000 1,000
2,400 24
2,200 22 90,000 900
2,000 20 80,000 800
1,800 18 70,000 700

1,600 16 60,000 600
1,400 14
50,000 500
1,200 12
40,000 400
1,000 10
30,000 300
800 8
600 6 20,000 200
400 4 10,000 100
200 2 0 0
0 0 2020m1 2020m4 2020m7 2020m10 2021m1
2020m 1 2020m 4 2020m 7 2020m10
Russia
France
cases deaths
cases deaths 28,000 700
55,000 1,100
26,000 650
50,000 1,000 24,000 600
45,000 900 22,000 550
20,000 500
40,000 800
18,000 450
35,000 700
16,000 400
30,000 600
14,000 350
25,000 500 12,000 300
20,000 400 10,000 250
8,000 200
15,000 300
6,000 150
10,000 200
4,000 100
5,000 100 2,000 50
0 0 0 0
2020m1 2020m4 2020m7 2020m10 2021m1 2020m1 2020m4 2020m7 2020m10 2021m1
South Africa South Korea

15,000 300 1,400 7.0
14,000 280 1,300 6.5
13,000 260 1,200 6.0
12,000 240
1,100 5.5
11,000 220
1,000 5.0
10,000 200
900 4.5
9,000 180
800 4.0
8,000 160
700 3.5
7,000 140
6,000 120 600 3.0
5,000 100 500 2.5
4,000 80 400 2.0

3,000 60 300 1.5
2,000 40 200 1.0
1,000 20 100 0.5
0 0
0 0.0
2020m1 2020m4 2020m7 2020m10 2021m1
2020m 1 2020m 4 2020m 7 2020m10

42
4. World, cases per million population
Total cases per Average new daily cases per million population
million population
7 days vs
since start of the
Q2 2020 Q3 2020 October November Last 28 days Last 7 days 28 days
pandemic
trend
Turkey 22 370 24.3 15.3 21.7 105.3 620.2 1722.4 h
United States 50 140 81.9 152.6 187.0 446.0 571.0 653.9 h
Sweden 31 695 68.6 26.8 100.6 392.0 504.8 582.6 h
Denmark 19 594 18.8 28.6 102.2 197.1 307.9 506.0 h
Switzerland 44 763 19.2 27.1 376.3 670.6 476.3 503.0 h
Netherlands 36 377 24.2 44.8 433.6 335.9 353.5 481.7 h
Portugal 34 318 37.4 35.6 208.0 511.1 437.5 361.4 i
Austria 36 298 9.3 32.6 215.3 660.8 464.4 308.8 i
United Kingdom 27 541 39.7 27.1 265.3 303.4 252.0 277.2 h
Germany 16 251 16.2 12.6 92.0 214.8 230.8 269.0 h
Italy 30 648 24.5 13.4 194.5 507.6 383.3 267.0 i
Israel 42 200 25.2 276.6 256.9 89.4 144.8 213.1 h
Belgium 52 796 46.1 53.5 865.0 427.9 220.8 205.5 i
Brazil 32 822 72.2 174.3 110.0 126.4 177.8 205.3 h
France 36 498 23.9 63.7 393.4 434.2 210.9 182.0 i
Canada 12 441 28.3 15.8 64.7 126.5 157.3 173.8 h
Spain 37 484 36.0 120.9 287.4 329.9 194.9 151.5 i
South Africa 14 791 27.8 95.9 27.8 36.7 69.4 117.7 h
Finland 5 624 11.5 5.4 35.6 53.0 75.5 83.4 h
Mexico 9 845 19.3 44.0 45.9 49.3 69.0 82.6 h
Norway 7 684 8.6 10.3 37.5 98.0 85.7 69.9 i
India 7 250 4.7 45.1 43.7 31.2 27.0 21.2 i
Japan 1 437 1.4 5.6 4.5 12.5 17.7 20.1 h
South Korea 866 0.7 2.3 1.7 5.2 10.7 15.6 h
Australia 1 113 1.5 8.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.3 i
China 66 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 h
Data via Johns Hopkins CSSE
43
5. World, deaths per million population
Average new daily deaths per million population
Total deaths per
million population
7 days vs
since start of the
pandemic
trend
Switzerland 716 1.9 0.1 0.8 9.8 10.9 11.0 h
Italy 1074 4.1 0.2 1.5 9.3 11.4 10.4 i
Austria 506 0.7 0.1 1.1 7.7 10.5 10.1 i
Portugal 552 1.5 0.4 1.7 6.5 7.6 8.5 h
Belgium 1565 8.6 0.3 4.5 14.5 10.6 8.3 i
United States 912 4.1 2.6 2.3 3.7 5.8 7.3 h
Sweden 744 5.6 0.4 0.3 2.3 4.8 6.3 h
United Kingdom 949 6.1 0.3 2.1 5.8 6.4 6.2 i
France 889 4.4 0.3 2.3 8.1 7.2 6.0 i
Germany 271 1.1 0.1 0.4 2.5 4.2 5.5 h
Mexico 896 2.4 4.2 3.6 3.7 4.3 4.7 h
Spain 1027 4.7 0.8 2.8 6.6 5.2 4.2 i
Netherlands 590 3.3 0.2 1.9 3.9 3.2 3.2 i
Brazil 862 3.1 4.3 2.4 2.1 2.7 3.1 h
South Africa 400 0.5 2.6 1.4 1.3 1.9 2.9 h
Canada 357 2.5 0.2 0.7 1.7 2.3 2.9 h
Turkey 200 0.6 0.4 0.8 1.4 2.2 2.6 h
Denmark 165 1.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.2 1.4 h
Israel 353 0.4 1.6 3.6 1.2 1.1 1.3 h
Finland 83 0.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 h
Norway 73 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.9 h
India 105 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 i
Japan 20 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 h
South Korea 12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 h
China 3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 h
Australia 36 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 i
44
6. Canada, cases per million population
Total cases per Average new daily cases per million population
million population
7 days vs
since start of the
pandemic
trend
Alberta 18 541 18.5 24.5 70.0 230.0 337.6 377.5 h
Saskatchewan 10 383 5.6 10.4 33.7 153.3 213.8 221.3 h
Manitoba 15 417 1.8 13.2 87.2 268.3 257.0 220.9 i
Quebec 19 305 66.0 24.0 119.4 141.3 168.5 205.9 h
British Columbia 8 342 4.1 13.2 32.9 122.1 138.7 133.0 i
Ontario 9 914 26.1 12.6 53.6 93.6 114.6 129.3 h
Nova Scotia 1 450 10.3 0.3 0.7 6.7 10.0 6.4 i
Prince Edward Island 558 0.4 2.2 1.0 1.7 4.7 4.5 i
New Brunswick 714 1.3 0.5 5.9 6.7 8.4 4.0 i
Newfoundland 686 2.3 0.3 1.1 3.0 3.8 1.9 i
7. United States, cases per million population

Average new daily cases per million population
Total cases per
million population
7 days vs
since start of the
pandemic
trend
Tennessee 68 035 66.2 242.9 304.8 555.6 762.2 1169.2 h
Arizona 57 737 117.7 208.0 121.6 370.4 703.3 1067.8 h
Ohio 48 815 46.6 95.0 170.3 585.6 810.4 1054.8 h
Indiana 63 932 70.9 120.2 284.3 790.3 921.2 915.1 i
Pennsylviana 39 461 74.0 61.9 122.7 401.1 641.5 814.2 h
California 40 785 62.1 161.7 92.3 251.5 515.0 797.8 h
Massachusetts 42 689 150.7 43.6 123.8 326.7 537.8 723.5 h
Wisconsin 80 943 51.4 174.8 640.4 995.4 838.6 684.4 i
Illinois 67 561 119.0 130.8 307.6 814.8 763.4 674.8 i
Virginia 40 952 82.8 125.1 156.9 312.5 462.1 578.2 h
North Carolina 42 083 68.8 148.6 196.9 285.6 433.0 572.1 h
Missouri 58 022 36.3 185.8 311.6 652.9 624.9 555.8 i
New Jersey 45 647 189.3 41.1 118.4 373.1 498.4 544.7 h
Georgia 51 477 80.1 242.4 129.9 347.8 404.7 536.4 h
New York 40 312 179.4 36.4 81.1 240.6 404.8 521.9 h
Michigan 47 340 69.1 73.2 191.8 639.3 657.4 520.4 i
Texas 51 487 60.4 228.7 182.0 341.9 455.2 488.4 h
Maryland 39 195 119.8 102.8 109.7 292.7 409.4 463.9 h
Florida 52 817 74.5 280.4 144.2 305.4 406.6 456.3 h
Washington 26 763 39.5 78.1 84.6 251.8 338.9 363.8 h
45
8. Canada: Current hospitalisations related to COVID-19
Hospitalisations per million population
220
Hospitalisations per million
population
200
180
160 AB
140
120
100 QC
CA
80
BC
60 ON
40
20
0
2020m 2 2020m 4 2020m 7 2020m10 2021m 1
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via INSPQ, Radio Canada https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/2020/coronavirus-covid-19-
pandemie-cas-carte-maladie-symptomes-propagation/)
9. Canada: Current hospitalisations in ICU related to COVID-19

Hospitalisations in ICU per million population
32
Hospitalisations in ICU per
AB
million population
28
24
20
CA
16 ON
BC
QC
12
0
2020m2 2020m4 2020m7 2020m10 2021m1
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via INSPQ, Radio Canada https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/2020/coronavirus-covid-19-
pandemie-cas-carte-maladie-symptomes-propagation/) 46
10. How do the COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials evolve?
Candidate vaccines in clinical trials, organizations that have entered phase 3
Phase of clinical trials
started
Countries where the
Organisation Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3
vaccine is approved
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Radio Canada https://ici.radio-canada.ca/info/2020/07/vaccin-developpement-covid19-immunite-

anticorps/, various news sites)
11. United States: Perspective on pandemic related deaths

Spanish flu (1918) COVID-19 (as of December 9)
90 90
% %
80.0
80 80
70 70
64.0
Proportion of
Proportion of
population
60 population
60
Proportion of Proportion of
50 46.9 influenza and 50 COVID-19 deaths
pneumonia deaths
39.7
40 40
32.3
30 30 25.4
23.1
20 18.5
16.1 20 17.2 16.5
8.5
10 10
4.7 4.4
2.8
0.04
0 0
less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over less than 15 15-44 45-64 65 and over
Age
Age
NBF Economy and Strategy (data via CDC: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/vsushistorical/morttable_1918.pdf,
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm, Census Bureau)
47
12. Canada: Back to normal index
Google mobility data for retail & recreation, grocery & pharmacy, transit and workplaces, 7-day mov. average
10 % change from baseline*

5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
-35
-40
-45
-50
-55
Quebec Ontario
-60 Alberta British Columbia
-65
2020M04 2020M07 2020M10
*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)
13. Canada and United States: Return to workplaces

Google mobility data for workplaces, 5 day mov. av. (workdays only), 3 largest CMAs of Canada and the U.S.
10 % change from baseline*
-10
Chicago (Cook County) Los Angeles County

-20
Montreal New York County
Toronto Vancouver
-30
-40
-50
-60
-70
-80
2020M4 2020M7 2020M10
*The baseline is the median value of the corresponding day of the week during the 5 week period from January 3 to February 6
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Google)
48
14. Canada: Perspective on financial stress
NBF financial stress index
5.5 Stdev
Lehman bankruptcy
5.0 and AIG bailout COVID-19
outbreak and
4.5 OPEC/Russia oil
Fear of Chinese price war
4.0 recession and
petrol supply
shock
3.5
U.S. government
3.0 credit downgrade
and Eurozone
2.5 crisis
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
-1.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)
NBF Financial Stress Index for Canada
Variables Estimation
Beta S&P/TSX financials β = cov(r,m)/var(m) calculated daily over a rolling 1- year time horizon, where r = daily percentage change in the
S&P/TSX Financials Total Returns Index. m = daily percentage change in the S&P/TSX Total Returns Index.
Approximated by the AA-rated long-term corporate bond yield, of which most constituents are financial issuers,
Financials bond yield spread
minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.
The S&P/TSX 12-month forward earnings divided by the price of the index minus the 10-year Canadian
S&P/TSX equity risk premium proxy
government bond yield.
S&P/TSX historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the S&P/TSX.
USD/CAD historical 1-month volatility 1-month historical volatility of the USD/CAD exchange rate.
BBB rated corporate bond yield spread BBB rated long-term corporate bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.
Provincical spread Long-term provincial government bond yield minus the 10-year Canadian government bond yield.
Source: NBF Economics and Strategy (data via Bloomberg and Refinitiv)
49
.
50
51
Upcoming Institutional Client Events
December 15, 2020
Dec 16 Loop Energy Inc. Virtual 1-1’s N.A.

Ben Nyland, CEO
Darren Ready, CFO
Dec 17 IE/FI CT REIT Montreal, Virtual 1-1’s Woolley

Kenneth Silver, President & CEO
Lesley Gibson, CFO
Kevin Salsberg, COO
Jan 7, 2021 NBFM 11th Annual Energy Conference Virtual Conference + Payne / Wood /
1-1’s Storry-Robertson
Participating Companies include:
Advantage Oil & Gas, ARC Resources, Baytex Energy,
Birchcliff Energy, Certarus, Crescent Point Energy,
Enerflex, Enerplus, Freehold Royalties, Headwater
Exploration, Kelt Exploration, Mullen Group, National
Energy Services Reunited, Pason Systems, Peyto
Exploration & Development, Pipestone Energy,
PrairieSky Royalty, Precision Drilling, Seven
Generations Energy, Spartan Delta, Surge Energy,
Tamarack Valley Energy, Topaz Energy, Trican Well
Services, Vermilion Energy, Whitecap Resources
Jan 18, 2021 2:00 p.m. CanWel Building Materials Group Ltd. Conf. Call Evershed
Amar Doman, Chairman & CEO
James Code, CFO
Jan 21, 2021 2:00 p.m. Alaris Equity Partners Income Trust Conf. Call Evershed
Steve King, President & CEO
Darren Driscoll, CFO
Jan 26, 2021 Corus Entertainment Inc. Virtual 1-1’s Shine
Jan 27, 2021 BSR REIT Virtual 1-1’s Kornack
Feb 2, 2021 2:00 p.m. Hardwoods Distribution Inc. Conf. Call Evershed
Rob Brown, President & CEO
Faiz Karmally, VP & CFO
Feb 4, 2021 2:00 p.m. New Look Vision Group Inc. Conf. Call Evershed
Antoine Amiel, President & CEO
Tania Clarke, SVP & CFO
Feb 9, 2021 2:00 p.m. Boyd Group Services Inc. Conf. Call Evershed
Tim O'Day, President & CEO
Pat Pathipati, EVP & CFO
Feb 11, 2021 11:00 a.m. Richelieu Hardware Ltd. Conf. Call Evershed
Richard Lord, President & CEO
Antoine Auclair, CFO
Feb 16, 2021 2:00 p.m. Park Lawn Corp. Conf. Call Evershed
Brad Green, CEO
Daniel Millett, CFO
Mar 15, 2021 11:00 a.m. GDI Integrated Facility Services Inc. Conf. Call Evershed
Claude Bigras, President & CEO
Stéphane Lavigne, SVP & CFO
David Hinchey, SVP, Strategic Development
52
Shane Nagle, (416) 869-7936, shane.nagle@nbc.ca
Associate: Lola Aganga, (416) 869-6516, lola.aganga@nbc.ca
Associate: Ahmed Al-Saidi, (416) 869-7535, ahmed.al-saidi@nbc.ca
December 15, 2020
Ero Copper Corp.
ERO (TSX): C$18.36
Stock Rating: Sector Perform
Target: C$24.00
Risk Rating: Speculative
Ero Provides Quarterly Exploration Update

Impact: Positive
This morning, Ero Copper announced its quarterly exploration update from the 99.6%-owned Curaca district in Bahia State,
Brazil and its 97.6%-owned NX Gold mine in Mato Grosso State, Brazil, comprised of results from September through late
November 2020. Overall, the results highlight the discovery of new high-grade mineralization at Pilar supporting efforts at
upgrading Inferred resources within the Deepening zone (incorporated into our Base Case operating assumptions), as well as
encouraging initial results from the PGM testing, which began in early 2020.
Following release of the MCSA technical report in late November, which was broadly in line with NBF Estimates, and highlighted
a 23% increase in P&P mineral reserves and a 29% increase in M&I mineral resources, the company's ongoing exploration
efforts show mineralization remains open at depth, offering potential for further success in expanding resources.
Highlights from today's release include:
▪ FC48155 (located south-central of the Deepening Extension Zone at Pilar): 46.5 m grading 4.96% Cu
● Including 36.5 m grading 6.08% Cu and 6.0 m grading 11.98% Cu
▪ FC48161: 20.3 m grading 4.76% Cu

▪ FVS-910 (located in the Southern Vermelhos corridor where drilling continues to intersect stacked lenses over a 700 m
strike length): 17.2 m grading 1.20% Cu
▪ FVS-911: 13.1 m grading 1.21% Cu and 5.1 m grading 1.98% Cu
▪ FSI-101: 9.2 m grading 3.03% Cu

● Including 3.9 m grading 5.98% Cu
▪ At NX Gold, results continue to support down-plunge continuity of the San Antonio vein.
In addition, results from the assay program to evaluate PGM associations within MCSA identified three distinct styles of PGM
mineralization including:
▪ High-grade copper-nickel-PGMs (this style of mineralization shows similarities to footwall zones described within the
Sudbury District, Canada and localized copper-rich mineralized zones at Noril'sk, Russia)
For required disclosures, please refer to the end of the document. 53

▪ High-grade PGM low-sulphide content, reef-style mineralization (this style of mineralization shows similarities described
in PGM deposits, such as the Bushveld Complex, South Africa and some zones within the Marathon Intrusion, Canada)
▪ Copper-palladium rich (this style of mineralization shows similarities to zones described within the Sudbury District and
Marathon Intrusion)
Ero is conducting a review of an additional ~5,000 samples with PGM occurrences in light of these results, and we expect
further updates in early 2021.
Five underground exploration drill rigs will continue to systematically drill the defined exploration target area within the
Deepening Extension Zone in 2021. Five drill rigs are expected to be operational within the Southern Vermelhos Corridor
during 2021 and focused on systematically testing the continuity of stacked lenses mineralization. Recall, NBF Estimates
include the Deepening Extension project at Pilar, which is expected to increase processing from the current 1.2 Mtpa to 2.2
Mtpa, and will include the installation of a new external shaft, expected to begin construction in Q3/21 (with commissioning
in 2024). The PEA for the Deepening Extension project incorporates 4.5 mln tonnes at 2.12% Cu of Inferred resource from the
19,600 m of exploratory drilling completed between September 2019 and August 2020. Ero plans to continue infill drilling
through 2021 of the Inferred resource to further upgrade the material and potentially upgrade the resource to reserves.
We reiterate our Sector Perform rating as our estimates take into account Ero’s self-funded growth profile, significant
exploration potential, near-term expansion opportunities and low operating costs. Results to date from Ero's exploration
efforts are likely to have a modest increase in our modeled resources; however, we remain encouraged that all near-
mine extensions remain open in most directions, offering the potential for further exploration success. As the company
continues to focus more on regional drilling, any success or continued discoveries would stand to improve the company's
valuation/outlook.
ERO is trading at 0.56x NAV and 6.8x EV/2021 CF versus peers at 0.90x and 5.9x, respectively.
Our $24.00 target price remains based on ascribing multiples of 0.85x NAV (50%) + 6.0x EV/2021E CF (50%).
Additional Company related disclosures for Ero Copper Corp.

National Bank Financial Inc. makes a market in the securities of Ero Copper Corp., at the time of this
54report publication.
Tal Woolley, (416) 507-8009, tal.woolley@nbc.ca
Associate: Eric Kim, (416) 869-7566, eric.kim@nbc.ca
December 15, 2020
Sienna Senior Living Inc.
SIA (TSX): C$14.06
Stock Rating: Outperform
Target: C$15.00
The plight of seniors housing stocks has to be considered improved with the rollout of the vaccine
Wider vaccine rollout should begin to quell second wave outbreaks...

SIA press released tonight that some staff at three of its North York, ON LTC facilities began receiving the COVID vaccine.
Starting today, 15% of team members at each of the three LTC residences (Cheltenham Care Community, Fountain View Care
Community and Norfinch Care Community, all in North York in the GTA) will receive vaccinations.
Vaccinations should help contain outbreaks in the LTC network, reducing pandemic costs too. Vaccinating staff is key to
mitigating the spread into facilities as frontline workers go about their daily lives outside. Reducing outbreaks could help
operators limit net pandemic costs in time. Retirement homes will also benefit from the roll out of vaccines, as operators
may begin to lift their self-imposed move-in restrictions if there is improved confidence around the spread of the virus.
We continue to believe that the seniors housing asset class is poised to rally with the rollout of the vaccine. We do not
see another asset class whose plight is more dramatically improved, more quickly with the vaccine rollout (e.g., Retail was
facing secular headwinds related to ecommerce prior to the pandemic, and the questions surrounding Office in light of the
success of work from home during the pandemic may take some time to resolve). Taking into account the high priority of
workers and residents in the ON government's vaccination plans and the attractive implied returns (if you believe that 2022
operating results can approach 2019 levels, which we think is realistic), we continue to see more upside for this group of
stocks, and remain Outperform-rated on CSH and SIA.
LTC workers and residents are prioritized in rollout plans...

We expect that front-line staff in long-term care facilities and retirement homes will remain higher up on the priority
list for the vaccine, with the start of widespread vaccination of residents and workers in early 2021. Based on the
government's rollout strategy, front-line healthcare workers in regions of the province currently under the tightest restrictions
will receive the initial doses of the vaccine in Phase 1. Front-line workers in less restricted areas, and LTC and retirement
residents in the more restricted areas should start receiving the vaccine in "early 2021". The broader rollout of vaccines to
the entire LTC and retirement home population (regardless of the restriction levels in the province) falls under Phase 2 of
the province's plan, which is planned for "later in the winter in 2021".
As of December 14, SIA had 19 residences in outbreak. The outbreaks are in 14 long-term care facilities and in 5 retirement
residences. ON reported today that there were 134 LTC facilities across the province in outbreak (with ~59% with no resident
cases, ~22% have fewer than five resident cases, ~19% have more than five resident cases).
Same-property occupancy in line with expectations...

November retirement same-property occupancy was 81.3%, in line with the last update offered with Q3 results. For the
month of November, retirement same-property occupancy was 81.3%, down 140 bps as compared to 82.7% in October. The
decline in occupancy is not surprising, given SIA had implemented reinstated access restrictions in October in preparation
of a potential second wave (retirement same-property occupancy was 81.9% as at October 31). Notably, collection rates

remain very high and in line with historical averages at 99.5%. We may see SIA be able to lift some of the self-imposed access
restrictions over the course of 2021 as vaccination becomes more widespread, helping SIA recapture lost occupancy.
Valuation & recommendation

SIA shares are rated Outperform, with a $15.00 target. Our $15 target price is based on a -3% discount to our NAV one
year out, translating to 11.5x our F2022E AFFO/u, close to the peer average, based on SIA’s asset mix, growth prospects
and leverage.
Additional Company related disclosures for Sienna Senior Living Inc.

National Bank Financial Inc. has acted as an underwriter with respect to Sienna Senior Living Inc. within the past 12 months.
National Bank Financial Inc. has provided investment banking services for Sienna Senior Living Inc. within the past 12 months.
National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has managed or co-managed a public offering of securities with respect to Sienna Senior Living Inc. within the past 12 months
National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Sienna Senior Living Inc. within the past 12 months.
Sienna Senior Living Inc. is a client, or was a client, of National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate within
56 the past 12 months.
Don DeMarco, (416) 869-7572, don.demarco@nbc.ca
Associate: Harmen Puri, (416) 869-8045, harmen.puri@nbc.ca
December 15, 2020
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd.
WDO (TSX): C$10.05
Stock Rating: Outperform
Target: C$17.50
Kiena A Zone Resource Successfully Converts Inferred, Maintains Grades

After market close, Wesdome released an updated Mineral Resource statement for the Kiena A Zone as a precursor to the
Kiena PFS tracking H1/21. Overall we ascribe a neutral bias. We're encouraged by the successful Resource conversion and
~unchanged grades, while Resource expansion was modest with infill prioritized over expansion as drilling was throttled back
during COVID suspensions. We expect shares to trade in line with peers tomorrow and look to next steps including bulk sample
in early Q1/21 and a favourable mine restart decision following the PFS.
▪ Resources increase ~100k oz. The Kiena A Zone Total Resource increased to 836k oz (was 737k oz as at Sept 2019),
for a positive delta of 99k oz while maintaining elevated grades at ~16.7 g/t (was 16.9 g/t). NBF view: the updated
resource adds 60.9k m new drilling and we're encouraged to see modest resource accretion in a stubbed year with COVID
suspensions. The updated A Zone resource is based on ~880m down-plunge (versus the Sept 2019 resource ~700m).
▪ Significant M&I conversion. The Kiena A Zone M&I Resource is now 717k oz at 17.8 g/t (was 415 koz at 18.6 g/t as at Sept
2019), with an M&I/Inferred split of 86/14% (was 55/45% as at Sept 2019). NBF view: The larger M&I allocation provides
evidence of a successful infill program, in our view converting a sufficient resource base for the PFS. For Kiena A we
currently model contained ounces of 635k oz at 12.3 g/t based on the PEA mine plan, which appears slightly conservative
vs today's update.
▪ U/G drilling continuing. WDO has 7 drill rigs turning focusing on expansion with near-mine exploration and zone
extensions. Additionally, the previously announced regional exploration program is also ramping up. NBF view: Today's
resource is only a snapshot in time and we look forward to further resource accretion as mine development progresses
and the regional program advances. The Kiena A zone remains open at depth with opportunity to increase the ounces
per vertical meter with extensions of the adjacent VC and B Zones which would be accessible off the down ramp.
Maintaining Outperform and $17.50 target. We continue to view both the Eagle and Kiena properties as highly
prospective. WDO is trading at a P/NAV of 0.87x (DPM 0.75x) and a P/CF22 of 7.7x (PVG cons 5.9x). Our target is based
on ~1.5x NAVPS.
Figure 1: Total Resources of 836k oz at 16.7g/t (was 737k oz at 16.9g/t as at Sept 2019)
Source: Company Reports

Figure 2: The A Zone Contained Ounces Shows Limited Sensitivity For Changes In Cut-Off Grades
Source: Company Reports
Additional Company related disclosures for Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd.

National Bank Financial Inc. has acted as an underwriter with respect to Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. within the past 12 months.
National Bank Financial Inc. has provided investment banking services for Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. within the past 12 months.
National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate has received compensation for investment banking services from Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. within the past 12 months.
Wesdome Gold Mines Ltd. is a client, or was a client, of National Bank Financial Inc. or an affiliate within
58 the past 12 months.

NBCFM Daily Bulletin, December 16, 2020 PDF

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December 15, 2020

TARGET and/or RATING CHANGES

INTRADAYS INCLUDED (Released December 15, 2020)

NBF Disclosures, click here: http://www.nbin.ca/contactus/disclosures.html

Jonathan Egilo – (416) 507-8177

TARGET and/or RATING CHANGES

Zachary Evershed - (514) 412-0021

INTRADAYS INCLUDED: (Released December 15, 2020)

K92 Mining Inc. STOCK DATA

expansion, which would see throughput increase with the construction of a

Compelling Valuation and Re-Rate Opportunity

K92 Mining Inc. (TSX:KNT; OTCQX:KNTNF)

Per Share Data (US$/share) Cash & ST Investments (FY1) 0.66

Total NAVPS (C$) 9.52

350 $700 $7.00

Warrants 0.00 0.0

K92 Mining Inc. Rating History as of 12/15/2020

ADDITIONAL COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES

LEGEND FOR COMPANY RELATED DISCLOSURES:

Outperform Sector Perform Underperform

Coverage Universe Ratings Distribution 58% 38% 1%

Investment Banking Distribution 75% 61% 33%

Alaris Equity Partners

Barbershop trims and one target increase

Analyst Zachary Evershed, CFA

U.S. Dollar Exposure Summary

BYD USD reporting Q3 LTM 89% 11% Q3/20 100% 0%

CAS Q3 LTM 50% 30% 21% Q3/20 68% 32%

CWX Q3 LTM 35% 65% 2019 17% 83%

GDI Q3 YTD 27% 73% Q3/20 30% 70%

HDI Q3 LTM 89% 11% Q3/20 86% 14%

ITP USD reporting 2019 80% 9% 11% 2019 93% 0% 7%

KPT Q3 LTM 40% 60% Q3/20 39% 61%

PLC Q3 LTM 87% 13% Q3/20 0% 100%

RCH Q3 LTM 35% 65% Q3/20 0% 100%

SIS Q3 LTM 57% 22% 20% 2019 1% 99%

UNS USD reporting Q3 LTM 46% 32% 22% Q3/20 100% 0%

Source: NBF, Company reports

Figure 2: Historical CAD/USD

Source: NBF, Refinitiv

Figure 3: AD 2021e CAD/USD Sensitivity Analysis

Figure 4: HDI 2021e CAD/USD Sensitivity Analysis

Figure 5: PLC 2021e CAD/USD Sensitivity Analysis

Figure 6: UNS 2021e CAD/USD Sensitivity Analysis

Adj. EBITDA $84.5 $84.5 $92.6 $95.1 $101.6 $104.4

Adj. EPS (fd) $0.49 $0.49 $1.38 $1.43 $1.61 $1.67

Figure 8: Summary Forecast

Figure 9: Revised Estimates

Figure 10: Summary Forecast

Figure 11: Revised Estimates

Adj. EBITDA $651 $651 $717 $734 $737 $755

Containerboard EBITDA $391 $391 $459 $470 $465 $476

Adj. EPS $1.71 $1.71 $1.77 $1.89 $1.89 $2.02

Figure 12: Summary Forecast

Source: Company reports, NBF

Figure 13: CAS Sum-of-Parts Valuation

Net Debt ($1,721) ($16.62)

Minority Interest Greenpac ($79) ($0.76)

Value per share 5.4x $21.00

Figure 14: Revised Estimates

Adj. EBITDA 124.5 124.5 109.7 112.3 113.8 116.5

Adj. EPS (fd) $0.61 $0.61 $0.47 $0.49 $0.51 $0.53

Figure 15: Summary Forecast