Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
We need to know just about everything. ...
Is climate system modelling the ultimate example of hubris,
or, by chopping away at areas of ignorance, will we truly
improve our predictive capability ?
Vice versa, sudden climatic shifts during the last ice age [IPCC 95,
p 177-9] [Keigwin 95] do not imply that similar shifts must necessarily
happen in the near future: during glaciation the ice sheets were much
larger and less stable than they have been for the past 10,000 years.
Past climates help to understand the climate system's workings, but
they do not readily reveal what to expect. Our climate seems to be
headed for a "warm atmosphere-cold pole combination" which may be
unique in earth history. No completely satisfactory geologic analog is
known [Crowley & North, chapter 14] [Eddy, p 17-27, 39-71] [Overpeck].