1. Let (z) = 0.

017
then (–z) = 1 – 0.017 = 0.983 (M1)
z = –2.12 (A1)
x   1  1.02

But z =   where x = 1 kg
1  1.02
Therefore  = –2.12 (M1)
  = 0.00943 kg = 9.4 g (to the nearest 0.1 g) (A1) (C4)
[4]

2. (a) For f (x) to be a probability distribution function,

 0
f ( x)dx  1
.
1
 (e – ke
kx
)dx
 0
=1 (M1)
 ex   =1 1
e kx 0 (M1)
k
e–e +1 =1 (A1)
k
e=e  k = 1 (AG) 3
Thus f (x) = e – ex, 0  x  1


1/ 2
(e – e x )dx  ex  e x   1/ 2
1/ 4 
e
2
e
 e 4 e
4
(b) 1/ 4
(M1)
e
 e4 e
= 4 (A1) 2

1 1
 (e – e  (ex  xe
x x
)dx  )dx
(c) = 0 0
(M1)
1
 ex  2 1 e


 
2 0  0
xe x dx 
2
 [ xe x – e x ]10
= (M1)
e
–1
= 2 (A1)
2
e  1

2 x
x (e – e )dx   – 1
Variance = 0 2  (M1)
1 2
 ex 3
 e 
  e x ( x 2  2 x  2)   – 1
3 0  2 
=  (M1)
2 e2
=2– 3e– 4 +e–1
e e2

=1+ 3 4 (A1) 6

1
  1
x  
(d) p(battery lasts more than 6 months) = p  2
1

=
 1/ 2
(e – e x )
dx (M1)
= [ex  e x ]11 / 2
e
e
= 2 or 0.290(3sf) (A1) 2

(e) p(no battery failed) = p(all lasted more than 6 months) (M1)
3
 e
 e 
=  2  or 0.0243 (3 sf) (A1) 2

2
 3  e  e
 1  e   e  
(f) p(exactly one battery failed) =  2  2  2 (M1)
 0.179 (3 sf) (A1) 2
[17]

3. Note: In all 3 parts, award (A2) for correct answers with no working.
Award (M2)(A2) for correct answers with written evidence of the
correct use of a GDC (see GDC examples).
(a) (i) Let X be the random variable “the weight of a bag of salt”.
Then X ~ N(110, σ2), where σ is the new standard deviation.
X  110
Given P(X < 108) = 0.07, let Z = 
 108  110 
Z  
Then P    = 0.07 (M1)
2
Therefore,  = –1.476 (M1)(A1)
Therefore, σ = 1.355. (A1) 4
GDC Example: Graphing of normal cdf with σ as the
variable, and finding the intersection with p = 0.07.

(ii) Let the new mean be µ, then X ~ N(µ, 1.3552).

 108   
Z  
Then P  1.355  = 0.04 (M1)
108  
Therefore, 1.355 = 1.751 (M1)(A1)
Therefore, µ = 110.37 (A1) 4
GDC Example: Graphing of normal cdf with µ as the
variable and finding intersection with p = 0.04.

2
 (b) If the mean is 110.37 g then X ~ N(110.37, 1.3552), P(A < X < B) = 0.8
Then P(X < A) = 0.1, and P(X < B) = 0.9.
A  110.37
Therefore, 1.355 = –1.282 (M1)
A = 108.63 (A1)
B  110.37
Therefore, 1.355 = 1.282 (M1)
B = 112.11 (A1) 4
GDC Example: Graphing of normal cdf with X as the
variable and finding intersection with p = 0.1 and 0.9.
[12]

4. (a) Required probability

1
= P(Y  2 )
1/ 2

= 0
0.5e – y / 2 dy
(M2)
= 0.2212. (G1)
OR
1/ 2

Required probability =
0
0.5e – y / 2 dy
(M1)
=–  1/ 2
e–y/2 0  (M1)
= 1 – e–1/4
= 0.2212 (4 sf) (A1) 3

(b) Required probability

= P(2 or 3 of the components fail in six months) (M1)
 3
 
=  2  (0.2212)2(0.7788) + (0.2212)3 (M2)
= 0.125. (G1) 4
[7]

3
5. Let X be the random variable “the diameter of the disc,” then X ~ N(10, 0.12).
X 
Let Z =  , the standardised normal variable (using formulae and
statistical tables).
Then P(X < 9.8) = P(Z < –2) (A1)
= 1 – (2)
= 1 – 0.9773 (A1)
= 0.0227 (A1)
(using formulae and statistical tables)
OR
Using a graphic display calculator,
P(X < 9.8) = 0.0228 (A3)
Note: A different answer is obtained if a graphic
display calculator is used
[3]

 0.95 – 0.8   0.74 – 0.8 

   
6. P(0.74 < X < 0.95) =   0.12  –   0.12  (M1)(A1)
=  (1.25) –  (–0.5) (A1)
= 0.8944 – (l – 0.6915) (A1)(A1)
= 0.586 (A1) (C6)
[6]

7. (a) (i) To be independent P(A  B) = P(A) × P(B) (R1)

P(A) × P(B) = (0.85)(0.60)
= 0.51
but P(A  B) = 0.55 (A1)
P(A  B)  P(A) × P(B)
Hence A and B are not independent. (AG)

4
 (ii)

A B

0 .3 0 0 .5 5 0 .0 5

0 .1 0

P ( B' A)
P(BA) = P( A) (M1)
0.30
= 0.85 (M1)
6
= 17 (= 0.353) (A1) 5

 3  2  5 
   
 2  1  2 
10 
 
(b) Probability of 2 electricians and 1 plumber = 5
(M1)
60  5 
  0.238 
= 252  21  (A1)
OR
5!  3  2  2  5  4 
     
Probability of 2 electricians and 1 plumber = 2!2!  10  9  8  7  6  (M1)
5
= 21 (= 0.238) (A1) 2

5
 (c) X = number of hours worked.
X ~ N (42, σ2)
P(X  48) = 0.10 (AG)
P(X < 48) = 0.90 (M1)
(z) = 0.90
z = 1.28
(z = 1.28155) (A1)
(Answers given to more than 3 significant figures will be accepted.)
X – 48 – 42
z =  => 1.28 =  (M1)
=>  = 4.69 (Accept  = 4.68) (A1)
 40 – 42 
Z  
P(X > 40) = P  4 .69  (M1)
= 0.665 (A1)
OR
P(X > 40) = 0.665 (G2)
Therefore, the probability that one plumber works more than 40 hours
per week is 0.665.
The probability that both plumbers work more than 40 hours per week
= (0.665)2 (M1)
= 0.443 (Accept 0.442 or 0.444) (A1) 8
[15]

8. (a) X = length of Ian’s throw.

X  N (60.33, 1.952)
P(X > x) = 0.80  z = –0.8416 (A1)
x – 60.33
– 0.8416
1.95 (M1)
x = 58.69 m (A1)
(N3) 3

(b) Y = length of Karl’s throw.

Y  N (59.39, 2)
P(Y > 56.52) = 0.80  z = –0.8416 (A1)
56.52 – 59.39
– 0.8416
 (M1)
 = 3.41 (accept 3.42) (A1) 3

6
(c) (i) Y  N (59.50, 3.002)
X  N (60.33, 1.952)
EITHER
P(Y  65) = 0.0334P(X  65) = 0.00831 (no (AP) here)(A2)(A2)
OR
 65 – 59.50 
 PZ  
P(Y  65)  3.00  (M1)
= P(Z  1.833)
= 0.0334 (accept 0.0336) (A1)
 65 – 60.33 
PZ  
P(X  65)  1.95  (M1)
= P(Z  2.395)
= 0.0083 (accept 0.0084) (A1)
THEN
Karl is more likely to qualify since P(Y  65)  P(X  65)(R1)
Note: Award full marks if probabilities are not
calculated but the correct conclusion is reached with
the reason 1.833 < 2.395.

(ii) If p represents the probability that an athlete throws 65 metres

or more then with 3 throws the probability of qualifying
for the final is
1 – (1 – p)3, or p + (1 – p)p + (1 – p)2p,
or p3 + 3(1 – p)p2 + 3(1 – p)2p (M1)
Therefore P(Ian qualifies) = 1 – (1 – 0.00831)3
= 0.0247 (A1)
P (Karl qualifies) = 1 – (1 – 0.0334)3
= 0.0969 (A1)
Assuming independence (R1)
P(both qualify) = (0.0247)(0.0969) (M1)
= 0.00239 (A1) 11
Note: Depending on use of tables or gdc answers
may vary from 0.00239 to 0.00244.
[17]

7
9. P(X > 90) = 0.15 and P(X < 40) = 0.12 (M1)
Finding standardized values 1.036, –1.175 A1A1
90   40  
Setting up the equations 1.036 =  , –1.175 =  (M1)
µ = 66.6,  =22.6 A1A1N2N2
[6]

10. (a) Let B be the random variable “diameter of the bolts produced by
manufacturer B”.
 P ( B  1.52)  0.242

 1.52   
 P Z    0.242
 0.16  (M1)
1.52  
  0.69988
0.16 (A1)
   1.63 (A1) N2 3

(b) Let A be the random variable “diameter of the bolts produced by

manufacturer A”.
 1.52  1.56 
 P ( A  1.52)  P  Z  
 0.16  (M1)
 P ( Z  0.25)  0.40129 (0.4013) (A1)
P (diameter less than 1.52 mm)  0.44  0.40129  0.56  0.242 (M1)(A1)
 0.312 (3 sf) (AG) N0 4

0.242  0.56
P  bolt produced by B d  1.52  
(c) 0.31209 (M1)(A1)
 0.434 (A1) N2 3

8
  1.83 1.63 
P ( B  1.83)  P  Z    0.10564
(d)  0.16  (M1)(A1)
P (1.52  B  1.83)  1  0.242  0.10564 (M1)
 0.65236 (A1)

Expected gain  $ 8000  0.242  (0.85)  0.65236 1.50  0.10564  0.50  (M1)
 $ 6605.28 (A1) N2 6
[16]

11. For writing P(W < 220) = 0.88 or sketching an appropriate diagram A1
z =1.17(499...) (accept 1.17 or 1.18) A2
x μ
z
Using σ (M1)
220  200
z
σ A1
  = 17.0 (grams) (accept 16.9 or 17.1) A1 N3
[6]

9
 x
 1 10
12. (a) (i) P(T > t) =
 t 10
e dx
M1A1

 x 
 e 10 
  t
=  A1
t

= e
10
AG
P  T  t  s    T  t  
P T  t  s | T  t  
(ii) P T  t  (M1)(A1)
P t  T  t  s 
= P T  t  (A1)
x
ts 1 10
Numerator =
t 10
e dx
A1
ts
 10x 
 e 
=  t A1

t  t  s

= e
10 e 10
A1

t
 
s

e 10 1  e 10 
 
P T  t  s | T  t    
t

\ e 10
A1
s
-
= 1 e
10
AG N0

(b) Here, t = 5 and s = 10 (A1)(A1)

1
P (T  15 T > 5) = 1  e (= 0.632) M1A1 N2
[14]

 525  450 
z 
13. (a) P(weight > 525 grams) = P  50 
= P(z > 1.5) (M1)
= 0.0668 A1
Expected number  525 grams = (2000) (0.0668)
= 134 A1 N2

10
 (b)  (z) = 0.75  z = 0.6745 (A1)
Q3 = 450 + 50  0.6745 A1
Q3 = 484 A1 N2
[6]

14. (a) P(X > 45) = P(Z < 1.25) (M1)

= 0.894 A1 N2

(b) Using conditional probability P(X > 55 | X > 45) (A1)

P X  55  X  45

P X  45 (A1)
P X  55   0.1056... 
  
P X  45  0.8943...  (A1)
FT numerator = 1  (their answer to a).
= 0.118 A1 N2
[6]

 5
Z  
15. (a) P(T < 40) = P  7 (M1)
= 0.762 A1 N2
Note: Accept 0.761 from tables.

(b) Stating P(T < t) = 0.90 or sketching a labelled diagram A1

t  35
1.2815...
7 (M1)(A1)
t = (1.2815...)(7) + 35 (M1)
= 44.0 (min) A1 N4

11
 (c) Recognizing binomial distribution with correct parameters
or stating X ~ B (10, 0.762...) (A1)(A1)
10 
    0.762... 6   0.237... 4
P(X = 6) =  6  (M1)
= 0.131 A1
Notes: Accept 0.132 or 0.133.
Award FT for their value of p from
(a) but they must have n =10.
[11]

Ôë16. P(X > 10.5) = 0.02

10.5  μ
 2.05...
 σ M1A1
P(X > 9.5) = 0.04
9.5  μ
  1.75...
 σ M1A1
10.5   = 2.054
9.5   = 1.751
 1 = 3.805
  = 0.263 A1
  = 9.96 A1
[6]

 57  75 
P Ζ  
17. (a) P(X  57) =  12  (M1)
= P(Z  –1.50) = 0.0668 A1
(same value from tables)

12
   50  45  
P Z      0.7
(b)     (M1)
50  45
 0.5244
 A1
50 45

0.5244
= 9.53 A1

H 0 : μcurrent affairs  75; H1 : μcurrent affairs  75

(c) A1

By GDC for the sample x  83.7, s x  7.08754... (A1)

for small sample with n = 10,
83.7  75
t  3.8817
7.08754...
10 (M1)(A1)
EITHER
critical value at the 5 level v = 9 is 1.833. A1
3.8817  1.833 hence reject H0 and accept H1 R1
OR
p-value = 0.00186 so reject H0 since 0.00186  0.05 A1R1
[11]

13
18. (a) EITHER
Median, m satisfies


m

e – λx dx   e  x  m
0 
1
2
0
M1A1
1
1  e – λm 
2
1
e – m 
2 A1
e m  2

ln 2 1
λm  ln 2  m  ; meanis
λ 2 A1
Hence mean  median AG
OR
1
 1
P X   
 λ  0
 λe  λx dx
M1A1
1

=  e 
 λx 
0 A1
Hence mean  median AG

14
 0.1x
(b) (i) f (x) = 0.le

 
 
P X  20   0.1e 0.1x dx   e 0.1x
20 20 M1A1
2
= e
= 0.135 A1
(ii) EITHER
P(next butterfly within 50 seconds of first) = 1 – e–(0.1) × (50 – 20)M1A1
= 1 – e–3
= 0.950 A1
OR
Using the memoryless property,
PT  50 T  20  P 0  T  30
M1
30

=
 0
0.1e  0.1t dt
A1
1 – e–3 = 0.950 A1
OR
P 20  T  50
PT  50 T  20 
P T  20 M1
50
  20
0.1e 0.1t dt

e 2 A1
e 2  e 5
  0.950
e 2 A1

t

(c) (i) e 36 A1
(ii) 1 – F (t) = P(T  t) M1
= P (no goals scored in 0, t) R1
t

 F (t) = 1 – e
36
A1
t
1 36
e
f (t) = 36 A1
So T follows an exponential distribution. AG
[15]

15
19. (a) P(X  84) = P(Z  1.62...) = 0.0524 (M1)A1 N2
Note: Accept 0.0526.

(b) P(Z  z) = 0.01  z =  2.326... (M1)

P(X  x) = P(Z  z) = 0.01  z = 2.326...
x = 81.4 (accept 81) A1 N2

(c) P(X  84) = 0.12  z = 1.1749... (M1)

mean is 88.3 (accept 88) A1 N2
[6]

20. (a) (i) P(4.8 < X < 7.5) = P(0.8 < Z < 1) (M1)
= 0.629 A1 N2
Note: Accept P(4.8  X  7.5) = P(0.8  Z  1).
(ii) Stating P(X < d) = 0.15 or sketching an appropriately labelled
diagram. A1
d 6
 1.0364...
1.5 (M1)(A1)
d = (1.0364...)(1.5) + 6 (M1)
= 4.45 (km) A1 N4

(b) Stating both P(X > 8) = 0.1 and P(X < 2) = 0.05 or sketching an
appropriately labelled diagram. R1
Setting up two equations in  and  (M1)
8 =  + (1.281...) and 2 =   (1.644...) A1
Attempting to solve for  and  (including by graphical means)(M1)
 = 2.05 (km) and  = 5.37 (km) A1A1 N4
Note: Accept  = 5.36, 5.38.

16
 (c) (i) Use of the Poisson distribution in an inequality. M1
P(T  3) = 1  P(T  2) (A1)
= 0.679... A1
Required probability is (0.679...)2 = 0.461 M1A1 N3
Note: Allow FT for their value of P(T  3).
(ii)  ~ Po(17.5) A1
e 17.5 17.5
15
P τ 15 
15! (M1)
= 0.0849 A1 N2
[21]

412.11
x 1.71
21. (a) 241 A1
705.5721 412.11 2
s2    0.0036
240 240  241 M1A1

(b) (i) H0: Data can be modelled by a normal distribution

H1: Data cannot be modelled by a normal distribution A1
(ii) The expected frequencies are

1.60  1.70  1.75 

1.65  x
x x x
<
Interval < 1.60 < < < 1.80
1.7
1. 1. 1.
0
65 75 80
Exp
Fr 8.04 30.19 66.31 75.60 44.75 16.10
eq
A1A1A1A1A1A1
52 34 2 12 2
χ2    ...   241  3.30 / 3.29
8.04 30.19 16.10 M1A1
Degrees of freedom = 3 A1
Critical value = 6.251 or p-value = 0.35 A1
The data can be modelled by a normal distribution. R1
[15]

17