Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

Vietnam: Suppression of
Dissenting Voices
Carlyle A. Thayer
January 6, 2021

We request your assessment of the following four issues:

Q1. Do you think the Communist Party of Vietnam and the government want to silence
dissidents and activists ahead of the party congress? How do you assess the human
rights situation in Vietnam under the second term of the party chief Nguyen Phu
Trong? Is it getting worse or better than before?
ANSWER: Vietnam’s one-party state is especially sensitive to criticism on social media
and uses arrests, trials and lengthy prison sentences as a deterrent to prevent others
from joining in. Vietnam’s one-party state want to project an image of national unity
going in to a national congress.
It is difficult to make a quantitative judgement of whether the current period is worse
or better than before because of the time lag between the date of arrest and actual
sentencing in a court. The recent sentencing of three journalists, for example,
followed their arrest in late 2019. Pham Chi Dung was associated with the
Independent Journalists Association. It is clear, however, that the new law on
cybersecurity has provided the regime with a pretext for cracking down on online
criticism and dissent.
Q2. Why there is a crackdown before the congress and what else is taking place to
control information ahead of time? Is the government concerned?
ANSWER: The timing of the court case of the three journalists comes less than three
weeks before the 13th national party congress. It could be speculated that the
harshness of the sentences is an act of deterrence to prevent any other dissidents
from speaking out in coming days.
There is also an internal political angle to arrests and trials. The Minister of Public
Security is given block representation on the party Central Committee and the
Minister is usually given a seat on the Politburo. The party public security block may
be positioning itself as the defender of socialism and a one-party state. Cracking down
on dissidents and critics of the government provide the pretext for defending
Vietnam’s socialist regime.
Q3. Press freedom group Reporters Without Borders recently slammed Vietnam for
blocking posts critical of the government in Vietnam. Do you think that was the result
of putting pressure on FaceBook by the Vietnamese government?
 2

ANSWER: Vietnam’s one-party state has long tried to control and stifle critical
comment on social media including Facebook (FB). There is a special unit designed to
hack into dissident sites through denial-of-service attacks. FB is so popular that the
party-state has been hesitant to set off a domestic fire storm by closing it down. The
one party-state puts pressure on service providers to pull down sites critical of the
government and to identify the persons involved. The security forces also orchestrate
cyberattacks against what they view as hostile websites and discussion groups.
Q4. Do you think U.S policies under the Trump Administration facilitate more
crackdowns on dissidents/critics in Vietnam?
ANSWER: The Trump Administration has given Vietnam a free pass on human rights
and suppression of dissent and religious freedom. This means the Vietnamese
leadership is less constrained in its actions.
The October 2020 release of Michael Nguyen, from Orange County in California, was
most likely the result of a decision by high-level Vietnamese leaders to remove an
obstacle to relations with the United States in advance of the visit by U.S. National
Security Advisor Robert O’Brien late last year. Vietnam continued, however, to repress
online critics and dissidents.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “Vietnam: Suppression of Dissenting Voices ,”

Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, January 6, 2021. All background briefs are
posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the mailing list
type, UNSUBSCRIBE in the Subject heading and hit the Reply key.

Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.