KY page 165

Percentage
Year Annual Sales Change Change
2002 3,892
Annual Sales of Citr
2003 4,203 311 8.0
8,000
2004 4,477 274 6.5
2005 4,810 333 7.4 7,000
2006 5,132 322 6.7 6,000
2007 5,407 275 5.4
5,000
2008 5,726 319 5.9
4,000
2009 6,023 297 5.2
2010 6,360 337 5.6 3,000
2011 6,641 281 4.4 2,000
2012 6,954 313 4.7 1,000

0
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year 1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr Total
2002 842 939 1,236 875 3,892
2003 907 1,017 1,331 948 4,203
2004 953 1,103 1,406 1,015 4,477
2005 1,047 1,180 1,505 1,078 4,810
2006 1,124 1,267 1,576 1,165 5,132
2007 1,167 1,340 1,670 1,230 5,407
2008 1,255 1,403 1,766 1,302 5,726
2009 1,311 1,495 1,837 1,380 6,023
2010 1,390 1,565 1,940 1,465 6,360
2011 1,455 1,649 2,026 1,511 6,641
2012 1,536 1,714 2,103 1,601 6,954
2013 1628 1817 2229 1697 7371

2013 1788 1,808 1,827 1,846 7269

 Constant Compound
Growth Rate
Annual Sales of Citronade (2002-2012)
E = Last year's amount
B = First year's amount
I = Growth Rate
n = Number of years

2 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Estimasi Sales 2013 versi CCGR

Estimasi Sales 2013 versi visual time series projection

 = 6954/3892 = 1,7867 -> annual sales 2012/annual sales 2002

Kesimpulan : the growth rate of Citronade over the last 10 years is just under 6 percent. --> Misleading

Bantahan : Whereas during the first 4 years of the available data, growth ranged between
6.5 and 8 percent, the second 4 years registered increases between 5 and 6 percent, and the
rise in the last 2 years was less than 5 percent. Growth has been declining over the 10-year
period.

Alasan : The data plotted in the graph show a strong increase in each year except for the last
value, which may have been caused by an exceptional occurrence such as a severe recession
or a strike. If the compound growth rate approach is used, any forecast based only on the
first and last observations may be quite misleading.
ercent. --> Misleading

Visual Time Series Projections

 (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6)
Centered Adjusted
Quarter Moving Moving Ratio Actual/ Seasonal
Year (triwulan) Actual Average Average CMA Factors
1 842 0.889
2 939 0.991
3 1,236 973.0 981.1 1.260 1.231
2002 4 875 989.3 999.0 0.876 0.889
5 907 1,008.8 1,020.6 0.889 0.889
6 1,017 1,032.5 1,041.6 0.976 0.991
7 1,331 1,050.8 1,056.5 1.260 1.231
2003 8 948 1,062.3 1,073.0 0.884 0.889
9 953 1,083.8 1,093.1 0.872 0.889
10 1,103 1,102.5 1,110.9 0.993 0.991
11 1,406 1,119.3 1,131.0 1.243 1.231
2004 12 1,015 1,142.8 1,152.4 0.881 0.889
13 1,047 1,162.0 1,174.4 0.892 0.889
14 1,180 1,186.8 1,194.6 0.988 0.991
15 1,505 1,202.5 1,212.1 1.242 1.231
2005 16 1,078 1,221.8 1,232.6 0.875 0.889
17 1,124 1,243.5 1,252.4 0.897 0.889
18 1,267 1,261.3 1,272.1 0.996 0.991
19 1,576 1,283.0 1,288.4 1.223 1.231
2006 20 1,165 1,293.8 1,302.9 0.894 0.889
21 1,167 1,312.0 1,323.8 0.882 0.889
22 1,340 1,335.5 1,343.6 0.997 0.991
23 1,670 1,351.8 1,362.8 1.225 1.231
2007 24 1,230 1,373.8 1,381.6 0.890 0.889
25 1,255 1,389.5 1,401.5 0.895 0.889
26 1,403 1,413.5 1,422.5 0.986 0.991
27 1,766 1,431.5 1,438.5 1.228 1.231
2008 28 1,302 1,445.5 1,457.0 0.894 0.889
29 1,311 1,468.5 1,477.4 0.887 0.889
30 1,495 1,486.3 1,496.0 0.999 0.991
31 1,837 1,505.8 1,515.6 1.212 1.231
2009 32 1,380 1,525.5 1,534.3 0.899 0.889
33 1,390 1,543.0 1,555.9 0.893 0.889
34 1,565 1,568.8 1,579.4 0.991 0.991
35 1,940 1,590.0 1,598.1 1.214 1.231
2010 36 1,465 1,606.3 1,616.8 0.906 0.889
37 1,455 1,627.3 1,638.0 0.888 0.889
38 1,649 1,648.8 1,654.5 0.997 0.991
39 2,026 1,660.3 1,670.4 1.213 1.231
2011 40 1,511 1,680.5 1,688.6 0.895 0.889
 41 1,536 1,696.8 1,706.4 0.900 0.889
42 1,714 1,716.0 1,727.3 0.992 0.991
43 2,103 1,738.5 1.231
Rata2
2012 44 1,601 quarter 1 0.889
45 trend ? tahun
46 trend ? ditaruh di Rata2 dari 2 Ratio buat Lihat data
kolom yg moving menunjukka adjusted dari
47 trend ? sejajar dgn average (avg n ada faktor tabel
2013 48 trend ? triwulan 1 & 2, 2&3, lain perhitungan
ke3, akan 3&4, dst) (seasonal adjusted di
ada 2 factor), sheet 3
quarter angka > 1
pertama & 1 muncul di
quarter Q4 karena
terakhir yg ada nya di
kosong, musim
(nilai 973 panas. Sales
ada diantara meningkat
di Q2 & pada saat Q3
Q3)---> & Q4.
biasanya
diantara Q2
& Q3
 (7) (8) (9) (10)

Data Cycle and

Deseasonalized Trend Irregular (%) Cycle
947.1 940.2 100.73
947.5 959.5 98.75 100.68
1003.9 978.8 102.56 99.99
984.5 998.1 98.64 100.49
1020.2 1017.4 100.28 99.30 Citronade Qu
1026.3 1036.7 98.99 100.55
1081.1 1056.0 102.37 100.19
1900.0
1066.6 1075.3 99.20 99.83
1071.9 1094.6 97.93 99.02
1113.0 1113.9 99.93 99.55 f(x) = 19.296090326203 x + 920.9088958418
1700.0
1142.0 1133.2 100.78 99.93
1142.0 1152.5 99.09 100.13
1177.7 1171.8 100.51 99.86
1500.0
1190.7 1191.1 99.97 100.49
1222.4 1210.4 100.99 99.87
1212.9 1229.6 98.64 100.29
1300.0
1264.3 1248.9 101.23 100.23
1278.5 1268.2 100.81 100.49
1280.0 1287.5 99.42 100.18
1100.0
1310.8 1306.8 100.30 99.57
1312.7 1326.1 98.98 99.93
1352.2 1345.4 100.50 99.63
900.0
1356.4 1364.7 99.39 99.96
1383.9 1384.0 99.99 99.99
1411.6 1403.3 100.59 100.04
700.0
1415.8 1422.6 99.52 99.86 0 5 10
1434.4 1441.9 99.48 99.75
1464.9 1461.2 100.26 99.78
1474.6 1480.5 99.60 100.15
1508.6 1499.8 100.59 99.47
1492.0 1519.1 98.22 99.91
1552.7 1538.4 100.93 99.84 2200.0
1563.5 1557.7 100.37 100.48
1579.2 1577.0 100.14 99.74 2100.0

1575.7 1596.3 98.71 100.29

2000.0
1648.3 1615.6 102.03 100.28
1636.6 1634.9 100.11 100.91 1900.0
1664.0 1654.2 100.60 99.68
1645.5 1673.5 98.33 99.79 1800.0

1700.1 1692.8 100.43 99.89

1700.0

1600.0

1500.0
 1900.0

1800.0

1700.0
1727.7 1712.0 100.92 100.42
1729.6 1731.3 99.90 99.46 1600.0
1708.1 1750.6 97.57 99.75
1801.4 1769.9 101.78 99.67 1500.0

1789.2
1400.0
Data Actual Terserah
sales dibagi mau 2, 3, 1300.0
adjusted factor atau 4. dari
cycle
1200.0
menunjukka
Masukkan % n aktifitas
ratio antara penjualan. 1100.0
nilai Kalau > 100
Sebelum ke adjusted dgn maka 1000.0
kolom trend, nilai trend yg hasilnya
plotkan dulu didapatkan baik, kalau < 900.0
grafik dari (adjusted/tr 100 berarti
data quarter end*100%) ada 800.0
(triwulan) penjualan yg
sbg sumbu x tidak baik 700.0
dan data 0 5 10
deseasonalid
sbg sumbu y.
dapat
persamaan y
= 19.296x +
920.01
Masukkan
nilai
persamaan
dari regresi
yg
didapatkan
dgn nilai x yg
baru yaitu
Quarter
(triwulan)
 Y = a + b (t) --> straight line bcoz answers. Its coefficient of determination (R2) was 0
independent variable was 103.6—highly signifi

y = 19,296x + 920,91

Citronade Quarterly Sales Deseasonalized (2002-2012)

9.296090326203 x + 920.908895841824

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Citronade Sales Deseasonalized

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
ent of determination (R2) was 0.996, and the t-statistic for the
riable was 103.6—highly significant.
45 50
Table 5.6 Averaging of Seasonal Factors
Second Third Fourth
Year First Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Total
2002 1.260 0.876
2003 0.889 0.976 1.260 0.884
2004 0.872 0.993 1.243 0.881
2005 0.892 0.988 1.242 0.875
2006 0.897 0.996 1.223 0.894
2007 0.882 0.997 1.225 0.890
2008 0.895 0.986 1.228 0.894
2009 0.887 0.999 1.212 0.899
2010 0.893 0.991 1.214 0.906
2011 0.888 0.997 1.213 0.895
2012 0.900 0.992

Average 0.890 0.992 1.232 0.889 4.002

Adjusted Average 0.889 0.991 1.231 0.889 4.000

1.229 0.891 --> nilai dibuku, ga pakai 2002 3rd&4th

Note : diadjusted jadi 4 karena harus dalam nilai yg bulat

ga pakai 2002 3rd&4th quarter
(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7)

1 842 0.889 947.1

2 939 0.991 947.5
3 1,236 973.0 981.1 1.260 1.231 1003.9
4 875 989.3 999.0 0.876 0.889 984.5
5 907 1,008.8 1,020.6 0.889 0.889 1020.2
6 1,017 1,032.5 1,041.6 0.976 0.991 1026.3
7 1,331 1,050.8 1,056.5 1.260 1.231 1081.1
8 948 1,062.3 1,073.0 0.884 0.889 1066.6
9 953 1,083.8 1,093.1 0.872 0.889 1071.9
10 1,103 1,102.5 1,110.9 0.993 0.991 1113.0
11 1,406 1,119.3 1,131.0 1.243 1.231 1142.0
12 1,015 1,142.8 1,152.4 0.881 0.889 1142.0
13 1,047 1,162.0 1,174.4 0.892 0.889 1177.7
14 1,180 1,186.8 1,194.6 0.988 0.991 1190.7
15 1,505 1,202.5 1,212.1 1.242 1.231 1222.4
16 1,078 1,221.8 1,232.6 0.875 0.889 1212.9
17 1,124 1,243.5 1,252.4 0.897 0.889 1264.3
18 1,267 1,261.3 1,272.1 0.996 0.991 1278.5
19 1,576 1,283.0 1,288.4 1.223 1.231 1280.0
20 1,165 1,293.8 1,302.9 0.894 0.889 1310.8
21 1,167 1,312.0 1,323.8 0.882 0.889 1312.7
22 1,340 1,335.5 1,343.6 0.997 0.991 1352.2
23 1,670 1,351.8 1,362.8 1.225 1.231 1356.4
24 1,230 1,373.8 1,381.6 0.890 0.889 1383.9
25 1,255 1,389.5 1,401.5 0.895 0.889 1411.6
26 1,403 1,413.5 1,422.5 0.986 0.991 1415.8
27 1,766 1,431.5 1,438.5 1.228 1.231 1434.4
28 1,302 1,445.5 1,457.0 0.894 0.889 1464.9
29 1,311 1,468.5 1,477.4 0.887 0.889 1474.6
30 1,495 1,486.3 1,496.0 0.999 0.991 1508.6
31 1,837 1,505.8 1,515.6 1.212 1.231 1492.0
32 1,380 1,525.5 1,534.3 0.899 0.889 1552.7
33 1,390 1,543.0 1,555.9 0.893 0.889 1563.5
34 1,565 1,568.8 1,579.4 0.991 0.991 1579.2
35 1,940 1,590.0 1,598.1 1.214 1.231 1575.7
36 1,465 1,606.3 1,616.8 0.906 0.889 1648.3
37 1,455 1,627.3 1,638.0 0.888 0.889 1636.6
38 1,649 1,648.8 1,654.5 0.997 0.991 1664.0
39 2,026 1,660.3 1,670.4 1.213 1.231 1645.5
40 1,511 1,680.5 1,688.6 0.895 0.889 1700.1
41 1,536 1,696.8 1,706.4 0.900 0.889 1727.7
42 1,714 1,716.0 1,727.3 0.992 0.991 1729.6
43 2,103 1,738.5 1,745.3 1.205 1.231 1708.1
44 1,601 1,752.2 1,761.9 0.909 0.889 1801.4
45 1,590.7 1,771.7 1,790.2 0.889
46 1,792.2 1,808.6 1,813.7 0.988
47 2,250.4 1,818.8
48 1,641.7
 (8) (9) (10)

940.2 100.73
959.5 98.75 100.68
978.8 102.56 99.99
998.1 98.64 100.49
1017.4 100.28 99.30
1036.7 98.99 100.55
1056.0 102.37 100.19
1075.3 99.20 99.83
1094.6 97.93 99.02
1113.9 99.93 99.55 Citronade Qua
1133.2 100.78 99.93
1152.5 99.09 100.13
1900.0
1171.8 100.51 99.86
1191.1 99.97 100.49
1210.4 100.99 99.87 f(x) = 19.296090326203 x + 920.908895
1700.0
1229.6 98.64 100.29
1248.9 101.23 100.23
1268.2 100.81 100.49
1500.0
1287.5 99.42 100.18
1306.8 100.30 99.57
1326.1 98.98 99.93
1300.0
1345.4 100.50 99.63
1364.7 99.39 99.96
1384.0 99.99 99.99
1100.0
1403.3 100.59 100.04
1422.6 99.52 99.86
1441.9 99.48 99.75
900.0
1461.2 100.26 99.78
1480.5 99.60 100.15
1499.8 100.59 99.47
700.0
1519.1 98.22 99.91 0 5 10
1538.4 100.93 99.84
1557.7 100.37 100.48
1577.0 100.14 99.74
1596.3 98.71 100.29
1615.6 102.03 100.28 Citronade Sales Dese
1634.9 100.11 100.91
2200.0
1654.2 100.60 99.68
1673.5 98.33 99.79 2100.0
1692.8 100.43 99.89
1712.0 100.92 100.42 2000.0

1731.3 99.90 99.46

1900.0

1800.0

1700.0
 2100.0

2000.0

1900.0
1750.6 97.57 99.75
1769.9 101.78 99.67 1800.0
1789.2
1808.5 1700.0

1827.8 1600.0
1847.1
1500.0

1400.0

1300.0

1200.0

1100.0

1000.0

900.0

800.0

700.0
0 5 10 15 20 25
 y = 19,296x + 920,91

Citronade Quarterly Sales Deseasonalized (2002-2012)

f(x) = 19.296090326203 x + 920.908895841824

5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Citronade Sales Deseasonalized

15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50