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Post Digital Era: Year 0

2021 Global Perspective: Editor’s Note

DISCLAIMER: All the information of this document comes from open sources which are referenced
in each page and the related source can be found in the Part 6.

The « 2021 Global Perspective » is a collective effort to synthetize a vision, out of a very large set of
relevant and credible input sources, articles and studies.

It can help to easier embrace the variety and the complexity of the 2021 Global context that can
sometimes be hard to grasp by marketeers and strategists.

This year, we study in depth how the 3 impacting axes – the World Crises, COVID19 and Cyber
World War, the Climate Change and the Sino-US Trade War - have shaped the context, globally,
regionally and 5 market segments.


2021 Perspective: The Scope

Global context WORLD CRISES:

Economic, geopolitical
and technological issues

Defense, Aeronautics, Space,
Security and Identity,
Ground Transport

Regional context
Africa, China, Europe, India, Indopac,
Latin America, Middle East,

Slides 72 - 79
Global Crises:
Covid-19, Cyber World War Effect of Impact Axes
and other key elements
Climate change
Sino-American Trade War 8 REGIONS 2021
Effect of Impact Axes
and other key elements

Slides 5 - 13 Slides 14 - 27
Slides 28 - 53
4 THALES GROUP INTERNAL Slides 54 -65 Slides 66 - 71

Global Crises: What’s up, COVID 19

• We will come out of the COVID 19 health crisis, unfortunately

at a high human cost. Some countries bent the curve of new
cases and are monitoring the outbreak well. Progress is
possible but globally we are very far from the goal and the
global number of confirmed cases is rising extremely fast. (2)

• While some of the 21 most-talked-about treatments for

the coronavirus are accumulating evidence that they’re
effective, most are still at early stages of research. We also
included a warning about a few that are just bunk. (3)

• Vaccines typically require years of research and testing

before reaching the clinic, but scientists are racing to
COVID 19 Vaccines research as COVID 19 Treatments research as
produce a safe and effective coronavirus vaccine by (Q2) of Sep 18 2020, New York Times of Sep 18 2020, New York Times
2021. Researchers are testing 40 vaccines in clinical trials on
humans, and at least 92 preclinical vaccines are under active
investigation in animals. (4)

Global Crises: Where in the world, COVID 19

November 23rd 2020

Global Crises: Post COVID 19 macro-trends

Urbanization is a major casualty of the coronavirus (1)

• People were attracted to cities not only for economic opportunity
but also for the urban lifestyle. After coronavirus, people will be
more fearful of crowded trains and buses, cafes and restaurants,
theaters and stadiums, supermarkets and offices.
• People who have the ability to exit the city will increasingly be
tempted to do so. People who cannot leave will feel at increased
risk, hunker down, and reduce their movements and contacts.
Covid-19 marks the start of a continuous and rapid
change era, where information is of the essence (2)
• It is the unevenness and unpredictability that defines the challenges
• Polling tracked a sharp upward trend in trust in scientists,
government leaders, and the local community across democratic
• What the world health organization has described as an Infodemic
has become yet another element of geopolitical competition.
China, Russia and others using a range of disinformation platforms
spread fear in the United States and Europe.

Global Crises: What’s up, Cyber World War

• Interpol, Europol and the Global initiative against transnational

organized crime have rung the alarm of a cyber crisis for which
the world is hardly prepared, based on our level of digital
dependence. That will test our sovereignty, beyond the one
of COVID19, masks, respirators or reagents. (1)

• The most feared consequences will be a devastating cyber

attack against a country’s public or private critical infrastructure,
together with physical attacks, which may or may not take place
during a military conflict, using members of organized crime or
half-legal entities for organizing and covering up attacks.(2) At
Global Attack Sources (7) times of heightened tension, cyberattacks on nuclear weapons
systems could cause an escalation, which results in their use.
Inadvertent nuclear launches could stem from an unwitting
United States reliance on false information and data. (4)
All others 22%
• Foreign powers will try to gain intelligence which has geopolitical
Due to increasing cyber or military value. Increasingly, regional powers and other
49% countries are developing their own cyber-capabilities to gain
threats around the world, U.S. 13%
Cyber Command officially China an asymmetric advantage over rival states. (3)
became a unified combatant 6% • State competition in cyberspace will never result in kinetic
command in May 2018. Before 5% 5% Japan warfare. It is quite similar to state competition in the nuclear
then, it fell under U.S. Strategic France arena, particularly on the issue of deterrence. (5)
Command. (6) Netherlands

Climate Change: A Global Matter
The world is aware of the importance of climate change. Climate risks have various impacts and these
risks are increasing while they are difficult to contain. The aim is more than adapt, it’s to be prepared. (1)

Increasing and variable climate change risks Some examples of climate change issues (1)
Referring to the map on the left to find the issues

Livability and workability:

(1) Will India get too hot to work?
(2) Will there be a Mediterranean Basin without a
Mediterranean climate?
Food systems:
(3) Will the world’s breadbaskets become less reliable?
(4) How will African farmers adjust to changing patterns
of precipitation?
Physical assets:
(5) Will housing market and mortgages resist a flood in Florida?
(6) Could climate become the weak link in your supply chain?
Infrastructure services:
(7) Can coastal cities turn the tide on rising flood risk?
Source: McKinsey (8) Will infrastructure bend or break under climate stress?
January 2020

Natural capital:
(9) Will there be reduced dividends on natural capital?

Climate Change: A global green projects trend

Carbon emissions drop during the pandemic (1)

• The pandemic brought entire industries and international travel to a halt. But, emissions are
rising again so this drop won’t stop climate change as the economy is back on track.

14 main governments spent $184Bn for carbon emissions decrease (2)

• As a response to covid-19, between March and September 2020, governments launched 110 projects
in order to reduce carbon emissions in different industries.

The 4 main investors in projets to reduce on carbon emissions : 44% of global investments are
89% of projects are from European countries done in transport sector
Country Amount Type of projects R&D 8%
Agriculture 2%
Electric vehicles, Energy efficiency, Hydrogen,
European Union $63,97Bn Transport 44%
Renewable electricity, Green Jobs Buildings 14%

Germany $50,75Bn
Electric vehicles, Public transport, Hydrogen, $184 Bn
Shipping Energy 13%

France $41,5Bn Automotive, Electric vehicles, Aviation

Industry 12%
South Korea $11,1Bn Renewable electricity, Hydrogen Employment 3%
Nature 4%
Most of the investments concern public
transport, electric vehicles and automotive.

Sino-american trade war: The escalation
The president of the United States claims that the Chinese are manipulating their currency, continue to steal intellectual property from US companies, do not
allow foreign companies to operate independently in China, as in the rest of the Western world, and still trade unfairly. (2)

Even more agressive US trade war (1) China reacts on finance, technology and Industry
• China is highly unlikely to fully meet phase-one • China’s longer-term strategy will seek to reduce its reliance on US technology as well as its
agreement commitments across the agricultural, exposure to the US-dominated economic system. Accelerated US targeting of China’s
manufacturing, and energy sectors. indigenous technology sector would further increase the urgency to achieve both industrial
and financial self-sufficiency in order to reduce reliance on the US-led economic system. (1)
• The US administration has framed the Communist Party
of China (CPC) government as a threat to the US-led • China must decouple the renminbi from the US dollar system. It has also begun testing a
Western “free world” and has begun to seek a “broad “virtual yuan” digital currency, which is likely to strengthen its control in the financial sector.
alliance” against CPC influence among Western
governments. • At the 2020 National People’s Congress, the CCP announced that in addition to doubling
• The new US policy direction indicates a shift to a more down on its Made in China 2025 and China Standards 2035 initiatives, it would spend
aggressive and challenging bilateral relationship and is approximately US$1.4 trillion on a digital infrastructure public spending program in the next
unlikely to completely reverse course should 5 years. (3)
Democratic candidate Joe Biden win the US
presidential election November 2020. China’s “ New Infrastructure Initiative “

Sino-american trade war: Multilateralism and US Leadership?

Multilateralism (2)
• The reject of globalization and multilateralism is for the moment more
characterised by restrictions on exports than on imports and by the
shortening of global supply and value chains.
• China is erecting a parallel multilateralism, with basically regional
(3) institutions driving what has been termed ‘global bilateralism’ with
the policy/program of the New Silk Road.
• The UN, particularly its Security Council, has vanished; some UN
components have failed to measure up (such as the World Health
Organisation). The World Trade Organisation awaits reactivation and
in-depth reform. The representation of the International Monetary Fund
needs to reflect the new global reality. The G20 has also experienced
a loss of solidity and solidarity.
• In a world that in the best of cases is polycentric, or lacking a centre,
national and international institutions will be weak and reeling after
years of abuse, and it will take years to rebuild them.


Geopolitical context: Impact of Covid-19 and Trade war

COVID19 is often said to be just another risk on top of many others (1)

A new geostrategic Turkey

• Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the president of Turkey, is continuing with his strategy of
gaining positions in the Mediterranean and Middle East in order to obtain a
better geostrategic position and also to gain control of the exploitation of
hydrocarbon resources in the eastern Mediterranean. (2)

An Indopacific Front
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has accused the United States of “stirring up
confrontation” in the Asia Pacific, declaring as a “security risk” Washington’s
plan to form an Indo-Pacific alliance, seen as a strategy to counter Beijing’s
own growing assertiveness in the region.(3)

Emergence of 2 blocks?
Two recent momentous developments in the Middle East, are both interpreted as escalations in the geopolitical
conflict between the US and Iran: the news of a prospective strategic partnership agreement between Iran and
China, and the normalisation of relations between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Israel. (4)

Geopolitical context: Sovereign and Trustable Digital Governance

Global or Local
Digital Governance
• There are new aspects, from the
governance of the Internet to the
Post Digital Era Year 0 (1) regulation of artificial intelligence,
ethically and otherwise, that require a
new type of global governance (2).
• It is now clear that, if Europeans want to reap the economic
benefits of emerging digital technologies, they will have to • Geopolitics has increasingly bedevilled
protect their digital sovereignty and compete with other attempts to create a global framework
geopolitical actors in the digital realm… for managing the internet (1).

• Europe remains digitally dependent on both the US and • Countries such as China reject any notion
China in a variety of domains, from chat platforms to of an independent communications
telecommunications equipment. Digital technology has network outside of state supervision. The
become a critical battleground in geopolitical struggles. overarching goal of Chinese diplomacy is
to promote the notion of cyber (or
• Post-digital requires new rules. Leadership will depend on internet) sovereignty.
how fast you can master artificial intelligence, extended
reality, distributed ledger technology, quantum computing • Initiatives in Europe like the Paris Call and
and more.(3) Gaia-X are the seeds of a new digital
governance. (4)

Geopolitical context: Impact of climate change
Managing peace and security is directly linked
to managing the environment and especially
containing climate change.(7)

Climate change as a catalyst

of conflicts on resources
• Water crises are one of top 10 risks in terms of likelihood
and of impact in the next few years. (4) Water was
a major factor in the conflict in 45 countries in 2017,
disputes between upstream and downstream areas will
likely intensify (5) because by 2050, more than 650 Climate change creates a
million people in 500 cities are projected to face new playground in the Artic
declines in freshwater availability of at least 10%. (3)
As a consequence of rising temperatures, ice melting
• Due to climate change, the number of undernourished opens new naval shipping roads in international
people worldwide is rising after decades of decline, waters and uncovers large oil and gas reserves that
with 1/9 people suffering from hunger (2) and by 2050, could exacerbate geopolitical tensions. Major global
demand for food is expected to increase by more than powers and all countries with interests in the Artic
50%. (1) As water resource is becoming scarce, it could have referred to the region in their defense strategies
accentuate the agricultural crisis and increase and increased their presence in the region. (2)
geopolitical tensions. (6)

Economic context: GDP

GDP-covid correlation (1)

• Contrary to the idea of a trade-off, we see that (2)

countries which suffered the most severe economic
downturns – like Peru, Spain and the UK – are
generally among the countries with the highest
COVID-19 death rate.

Economic context: New growth directions

Investment themes of Tomorrow

Mapping of megatrends by impact’s magnitude and elasticity
Size of the bubble represents the influential potential of the trend

Industry 4.0

Digital & data

Neutral impact
Most critically impacted
trends in the long-term
desindustrialization Health & Wellness
Decelerating impact
Long-term elasticity

Energy revolution Homing

Life sciences booming Low

Rise of digital Medium
Autonomous disruptors
& densification Smart devices Anxiety
vehicles High
& infra.
Public debt crisis
NGOs & citizenship
Global cooperation
Global mobility

Changing of balance Accelerating impact

of economic power
Ageing society Knowedge
New social networks society
Natural disorders
Price polarization Usage economy High
Growing Asymetric conflicts
population War for talents
Scarcity of natural resources
Rise of the Asian Post COVID megatrends
and African
Gender gap decrease middle class Ecosystem at risk opportunities O.WYMAN
June 2020
Low Short-term magnitude High

Economic context: New growth directions

Discipline and rigour (1)

Those governments, businesses, institutions, and individuals that are most

disciplined, rigorous, and honest in their assessment of the challenges now
facing our world will emerge strongest from this crisis. We should think how to
actively design and mold the kind of world we want.

De-Urbanization (2)

Urban design and planning of a healthier and fairer city is best to fight pandemics.

De-Globalization (3)

After supply chain disruptions centered on Asia, after a demand destruction in

the large western markets, we see a staggered reopening of markets. The
companies will involve long-term decisions around supply chain structure with
an overlay from government policies to support onshoring of manufacturing.

Economic context: Value chain transformation
Although the different trajectories show that the expected transformation of international production is not
unidirectional, the overall direction of travel points follow one of the 4 transformations trajectories below.

I Reshoring

Dispersed 30
Higher geographical concentration /
b Agro-based IV b
Less fragmented value chain
28 Transportation
and logistics
and retail


Food and
II Diversification
Pharmaceuticals Chemicals a Wider distribution with new entrants
18 Financial and apparel
services a III b
and equipment
14 Electronics
Reduced physical length but not
12 Automotive
a IV the fragmentation of Supply Chain
1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3

Short Fragmented
IV Replications
Shorter value chains by rebundling
Geographical Distribution: Number of countries accounting for 80% of GVC
Length: Number of production stages in a specific industry
production stages and more
geographicaly distributed

Economic context: Companies under constraints
Estimated cost of US sanctions for
The US Sanctions cover many aspects (1):
European companies: select losses (2)

FINANCE $1.5bn
Sanction the European financial special purpose vehicle, INSTEX, that France, Germany, and
Siemens’s losses
the United Kingdom built to enable trade with Iran in defiance of US sanctions. Cut Russia off under a railway
from SWIFT and the global financial system. Force divestment from Chinese companies in the US contract with
through its Committee on Foreign Investment, or force sale of Chinese Tech to American capital. Total’s lost
in South Pars
PEOPLE gas field
Expand the scope of PEESCA sanctions on Nord Stream 2-related activities, that would probably
threaten German federal officials. Target sanctions on senior CCP (Chinese Communist Party)
officials who have violated human rights or have ties to the Chinese military with travel bans
and asset freezes (for example in Wuhan, Xinjiang and Hong Kong). US $19bn
Airbus’s losses
sanctions under a contract
with Iran Air
Broaden export controls that apply extraterritorially when 25 per cent of a product’s content
is American, when it has a potential military use. Declare Russia a state sponsor of terrorism, to
trigger a range of economic coercion tools against the country, with ramifications for Europeans.
PSA group’s
TECHNOLOGY estimated losr
car sales in Iran
Weaponise the IMF on 5G to make emergency and critical development loans conditional upon €500,000
a complete ban on Huawei in their 5G networks. Impose secondary sanctions on companies the Quercus’s losses
due to a solar
US determines to have engaged in intellectual property (IP) theft (Chinese or not). Exclude Chinese power project
students from certain courses of study, especially natural and computer science and fields more in Iran
connected to ‘emerging’ and ‘foundational’ technology such as biotech or artificial intelligence.

Economic context: Environment Resilience attracts Finance

Economic impacts of Climate hazards

• Sea levels could rise as much as 2 meters by 2100 (2)
and will put at risk 43 port cities in the Middle East
and North Africa affects the whole economies and
supply chains. (3)
• Extreme climate events such as heat waves and fires
could globally cost nearly $11 trillion per year and
threaten regions such as the Sillicon Valley. (2)

The finance world between American

and European green plans (1)
• The likes of JPMorgan Asset Management, Eaton
Vance Corp. and Schroders Plc favor European
equities, currency and bonds ahead of the vote, in
an effort to get ahead of the game. Some say Biden’s
climate and infrastructure plans will boost European
clean energy and cyclical equities, while others are
buying Europe, mainly as an alternative to the U.S. • Southern countries are the ones who need most to
stock market, which they expect to sell off if Biden grow but they are also more impacted by climate
delivers on a pledge to increase corporate taxes. hazards than northern countries. (4)

Technological context: Wild Wide Web

The 4IR: the new economy (4)

More than 50% of the world’s population is now online;
roughly one million more people join the internet each
day. Two-thirds of humanity own a mobile device.
Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies are (5)
already bringing tremendous economic and societal
benefits to much of the global population.

Global technological trends (1) (5)

Digital technologies see the convergence of Information

technologies (IT) and operationnal technologies (OT).
The US are Nr 1 on IT but on OT Europe is still a leader
(platforms, non functional requirements, thermal dissipation,
... for Défense, Aeronautics, ...).

Internet “battlefield” needs a global governance

There are new aspects, from the governance of the Internet to the
regulation of artificial intelligence, ethically and otherwise, that require
a new type of global governance. (2) The 2020s see cyberspace change
dramatically and turn into a battlefield between networks and states. (3)

Technological context: China Standards 2035 Plan

Unpacking the China-US tech war (1)

• The plan began at the start of 2018, is carried out by the Chinese
Academy of Engineering, A major benefit of leading standards is being
able to influence them in a way that benefits one’s own strengths and
ambitions, that is chinese domestic manufacturing.
• China is the world’s second largest payer of licensing fees in the world.
China Standards 2035 seeks to reverse this relationship and make China
a net recipient of licensing fees.
• In sensitive tech areas that relate to personal data and national security,
global standards may become split into those complying with Chinese
standards and those applied elsewhere.

Chinese standards and the new industrial markets (2)

• The presence of major Chinese companies competing for international
projects and offering Chinese standards on the world stage should
encourage Western industrial champions to revisit cost-inefficient business
models, slow and risk-avert decision-making internal procedures.
• It should also inspire European decision-makers to remedy the lack of a
pan-European strategic vision to promote its industry, afford the means for
research and development in new technologies on a level that represents
a credible alternative to China’s efforts and the creation of a legal
framework conducive to cost-cutting synergies.

Technological context: Climate change driver of innovation
2013-2025 Digital related energy share
in Global Greenhouse Gases emissions
$21Bn financing green innovations in the world
• Between March and September, 23 green projects Scenario without Sobriety

were launched in order to reduce carbon emissions as

developing green innovations. Most of them are from
European countries and concern transport sector (electric Scenario « Sobriety

vehicles, public transport, aviation, automotive, shipping,

R&D…). Other concern negative emissions or carbon
capture and storage. (3) +8%/year

Ecological awareness as a growth

factor for remote work tools Source: The Shift Project (2018)

• Working from home reduces carbon print. One day of

remote work reduces our daytime transportation by 69% Digital technologies: a tool and a challenge
according to the French agency of ecological transition. (4)
• Digital technologies are energy-consuming but can also
• The more we work from remote, the more we use help greenhouse gases transition.
visioconference and sharing tools. Zoom registered
a +169% revenue growth in the first trimester 2020. (2) • The Shift Project proposes a sobriety scenario in order to
optimize digital use to limit greenhouse gases emissions. (1)

Intentionally left blank


Europe: Towards a military, financial and technical sovereignty

Next Generation EU, the new recovery instrument (1)

Recovery and Resilience Facility (RRF) €672.5B
-of which Ioans 360.0
-of which grants 312.5
ReactEU 47.5
Horizon Europe 5.0
InvestEU 5.6
Rural Development 7.5
Just Transition Fund (JTF) 10.0
RescEU 1.9 Europe’s digital sovereignty, a question
of existential importance
Total 750.0

Source: European Council

• Covid-19 exacerbates the importance of technology

Next Generation EU aims to support investment, key sectors and technologies, for economic and health resilience. It accelerates
key value chains, future key programs and viability of companies. digitalization, policy measures supporting
companies’ transformation and investments in high
quality digital infrastructure (AI, cybersecurity…) in
A €750 billion historical Recovery Fund (2/3/4) order to strengthen sovereignty, competitiveness
and resilience. (5/6)
• To acquire a European Sovereignty.
• European digital sovereignty was already promoted
• To weaken European divergences caused by Covid-19, with the Franco-German Gaia-X project, which aims
the sharpest recession since WWII for Eurozone. to create a European Cloud infrastructure with
• The aim of the Recovery Fund is to support countries reliable and secure data. (7)
to restore the devastation caused by the pandemic. • European Defence Fund : 8 B€ to strengthen the
technological and industrial base of European

Europe: An ambivalent relationship with China

Has your view of China changed during the coronavirus crisis ?

TOTAL 12 40 48
European cooperation
Denmark 5 33 62 with China is necessary (1/2)
France 6 32 62
Sweden 6 42 52
• The EU encourages its members to promote reciprocity
Germany 7 45 48 and deepen relations with China on multilateral issues such
Portugal 16 38 46 as the fight against global warming, international security
Spain 17 37 46
and international trade.
Poland 14 44 43
Italy 21 42 37 • According to the French “Cour des comptes”, Chinese
Bulgaria 22 56 22 investments in Europe create jobs, bring cash and reinforce
Improved Stayed the same, or don’t know Worsened international relations. But, China is working with each
Source: ECFR – ecfr.eu Surveys organized in June 2020 country separately which creates risks of coordination for
infrastructure projects, indebtedness towards China, forced
Has your view of US changed during the coronavirus crisis ? (%) transfers of technology, unfair competition and VAT and
Bulgaria 8 56 36
customs duty fraud.
Germany 4 31 65
Denmark 3 26 71

3 29
31 64
The European’s worsened
Italy 9 43 48 view on China and the US (3)
Poland 13 49 38
Portugal 4 26 70 • The shift is particularly marked in France and in Germany
Sweden 5 35 59 which took over the presidency of the EU in July. This
change in public opinion may push European governments
Improved Stayed the same, or don’t know Worsened Source: ECFR
to pursue a more independent line from the US.

Europe: The Climate policy is a top priority

Climate change ambitions boosted by the pandemic (3/2)

• The European Commission added Lithium to its critical raw material lists
to guarantee their supply for future mobility battery element and support
its green recovery plan.
• The EU devotes 30% of its recovery plan funds to climate-related projects.
• The Pandemic slowed down the installation of renewable energy production
infrastructure, which includes the nuclear debate and the dependency
on China and India solar panels.

The Green Deal is still in progress (4)

• European Parliament adopted Strategies for Energy System Integration
and Hydrogen in order to have a decarbonized, more efficient and more
interconnected energy sector.
• European Parliament presented the 2030 climate target plan proposal to cut
by at least 55% greenhouse gas emissions to become climate neutral by 2050.

Coal: the major shift of climate policy in Germany (1/5)

• Germany finally approved the total coal disengagement until 2038 and 40bn€
financial aid to mining regions to control this disengagement.
• The federal government intends to re-examine the impact on security of supply
and the evolution of prices in 2026, 2029 and 2032, which could make faster the
Europe: Focus on the UK
Changing threat environment, including Cyber (1) Climate Change – UK Government
• The new-born UK Strategic Command comes with a strong and Net Zero (3)
message of prioritising future technologies to tackle non-
• Net zero initiatives will become ‘business as
conventional and hybrid ‘grey zone’ threats. These include cyber
usual’ applying to all departments and how
warfare and multi-domain integration.
they do business in the future. Alongside the
over-arching Net zero campaign, the UK
UK Economy with regards to Covid and Brexit (2/4) government has also launched their Fly Zero
and Jet Zero initiatives targeting the aviation
• The UK government unveiled an ambitious public investment and
sector with the goal of kick-starting a green,
spending programme for the next 5 years to mitigate Brexit
profitable future.
including a £640bn investment in infrastructure and increasing the
government’s R&D spending to £22bn by 2024. This was followed UK GDP, pre-and post-COVID-19
by an emergency COVID stimulus package of £350bn and then and no EU-UK trade deal
further sector-specific stimulus packages in space, automotive
industry, maritime, and aerospace.(2) 110

• Brexit will bring about asymmetric effects in several dimensions - 100

sectoral, spatial (countries and regions within countries) and
temporal. It does not and will not be adverse for all the regions
and sectors - some could benefit from it. (4) 80

• In a no-deal situation, WTO rules could be negative for some 70

sectors and positive for others. Taking military goods as an 2019Q4 2021Q2 2022Q4 2024Q2 2025Q4

example, there would be little change under WTO rules as these No EU-UK trade deal June 2020 baseline
are exempt from EU tariffs on grounds of maintaining national Source: IHS Markit
February 2020 baseline
security for member states.”(1)
Europe: Focus on Russia

The pandemic could weaken Russia

• Covid-19 could decrease budget income of $242Bn
due to oil price fall. (1)
• The pandemic forced an unprecedented
decentralization of powers which could lead to a loss
of Kremlin power. (3)
• The Ministry of Finance proposed a 5% reduction for
the state armament program over the next 3 years.
This reduction increases pressure on armament
companies to diversify production efforts towards the
civil market. (2)
• Russia launched a $73Bn recovery plan in order to
support employment, economic growth and develop
more flexible working. (5)

An expanding cyber-domain
• Russia is a major source of threat for the EU and USA
because they are able to deploy the cyber-capabilities in
offensive operations and to take high risks by breaking the
norms of acceptable behavior in the poorly regulated cyber-
domain of international relation. But Russia has still troubles
in producing hardware and developing software. (4)

Europe: Focus on Russia

China the « good long-time friend » of Russia

• The partnership with China is presented a key direction of
Russian security policy: expansion of economic ties, boost in
development of the Far East and an upgrade of military
proto-alliance. But very little of that is actually happening. (1)
• The formation of an alliance between Russia and China in the
future is also improbable, at least in the short-to-medium term,
but not impossible. (5)

Russia Arctic : Economic risk and opportunity

• 10% of Russia’s GDP and 20% of Russia’s exports are currently
produced in the Artic. (2)
• The risk of permafrost melting is evaluated at US$250billion :
disruption of buildings foundations, connectivity problems and
transport networks. 20% of all industrial and transport
infrastructure will be put at risk. (3)

Expanding the Russo-German energy partnership (4)

• Russian and German businesses proposed an expansion of energy ties
and the construction of a hydrogen production plant. The aim is to allow for
a reduction in global greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Climate deal.

North America: China is a « systemic rival »
Affirmation of the Sino-US Technology Divide (3)
• Punitive measures taken by the U.S. are hindering the Chinese companies’
entry into the U.S. market, which has led China to unveil its own security
standards for e-governance and increased the technology gap between
the two countries.

A surprising US dependency on Chinese suppliers (1)

• The US Defense Department supply chains are composed of a lot of
Chinese suppliers in different industries such as aerospace and the vast
majority of this infiltration has occurred over the past decade as China's
transformation from a potential economic partner to a strategic rival
and global threat.

Biden : A highest priority on alliances and partnerships (2/4)

• According to Biden, bringing critical supply chains back is a matter of national
security. Chinese technology issues will also be still considered national security
concerns, given the previous privacy and data security vulnerabilities. Biden is
also expected to work more with European allies in order to build a new
international coalition.
• The election of Biden could bring more continuity than change in the defense
sector. The major modification could be a higher priority on alliances and
partnerships instead of modifications in technology and capability or in
commercial models.

North America: The most important election ever

Covid-19 Recovery Plans decisions ahead (4/5)

• Trump administration and congress’ negotiations to find
an agreement on a stimulus recovery plan are crippled.
• On the other hand, Biden has unveiled a US$700 billion economic
plan proposal to create jobs and invest in new technologies in order
to recover from the pandemic.

Covid-19 puts stress on security and disinformation (3/1)

• Covid-19 exacerbates the rise of homeland insecurity and domestic
terrorism risk. The far-right also take advantage of disinformation to push its
worldview and ideology on its members and potential recruits.
• It also has huge impacts on the US military, especially on the forces deployed
and operating, on supply-chain impediments and on contractors and
subcontractors sustainability.

Biden is prepping to ramp up US cyber defenses (2)

• Biden considers cybersecurity as one of the prominent challenges of our time,
so he is bolstering US defenses against the hacker armies such as in Russia or in
China. The aim is not to uproot Trump’s policies, but better organized it and
to be more focused on threats like election interference or cybercrime.

North America: Rejoining the Paris Agreement?

Biden’s election could reinforce climate change policy

• The US election could play a role in redeveloping US climate change policy
if Biden is elected as he announced a $2 trillion climate plan
for completely decarbonizing the US power mix by 2035 and
rejoin the Paris Agreement on climate change goals. (1-2-3)

Bipartisan house plan to overcome climate change

• Bipartisan house proposed a plan to invest in clean energy infrastructure,
technology and tax incentives to reduce greenhouse gas emissions over
the next 30 years. The aim was to create a clean electricity standard for
the power sector to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 80% by 2050. (6)

California’s renewable dependancy (5)

• Renewable energies are a good alternative to fossil energy.
ButCalifornia’s huge dependancy on renewable energies is
alrealdy causing troubles, such as power outages whereas
the region is projected to increase this dependancy to 2050.

China: Covid-19, a time to grow faster

GDP growth (October 2020) Covid-19 accelerates the Chinese

domestic development
8 6,7 • Covid-19 recession is a good
6 time to accelerate Chinese
4 3 reform : to manage the
2,2 1,9
aging and spatial divides,

the inflexibility and the
dependence on the state of
-6 China’s financial system, the
2018 2019 2020 serious weaknesses in an
international environment
China USA
Source : FMI (3) and the economic
architecture in part because
of Sino-US Trade war. (2)
• The pandemic reinforced the
China's GDP to grow faster than digital economy by
the US one in 2020(3) accelerating the uptake of
• The pandemic widened the gap between US digital technologies in
and Chinese GDP growth. China could therefore different industries such as
catch up with the US faster than expected. health and financial sector.

China: Technology at the core of Chinese development

Technological sovereignty (1)

• China’s longer-term strategy will seek to reduce its
reliance on US technology as well as its exposure to
the US-dominated economic system : launched two
initiatives China standards 2035 and China New
Infrastructure Initiative.

Technological war intensification (2)

• China revealed its own strategy of cyber-security
as a response to Sino-US confrontations
on technologies banning.

Driving a shift towards « intelligentized warfare » (3)

• China is striving to complete military modernization by 2035 and establish a "world-class
army" that aim to rival the U.S. by 2049.
• China is moving away from its "informational" approach to warfare and is adopting new
technologies that will support a "smart" approach with technologies such as AI, cloud
computing, big-data analytics, quantum information and unmanned systems.

China: Climate at the heart of economics and geopolitics

Economic Dilemna
• The pandemic accentuated the necessity to put employment first
and Beijing recently approved the construction of new coal-fired
power plants. (5)
• On the other hand, President Xi Jinping announced in the U.N.
General Assembly yesterday that China aims to become carbon
neutral by 2060. (3)

Floods impacts on infrastructure

and supply chain
• More frequent and intense deluges threaten the economic heartland
and infrastructure defenses such as in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.
This zone is strategic because it accounts for almost 45% of GDP and
these climate events could put at risk 5G base stations and rail lines. (4)
• There are three main channels through which flooding affects supply
chains: via direct impacts on production (factory closures, equipment
damage, inventory losses, and so on); via indirect impacts on logistics
and transport (damage to road or river transport, port closures); and via
indirect disruption to supply chains, short-term price hikes and so on. (2) • 20% of China’s power plants could be
• China is overtaking the USA in the Mekong River by investing and exposed to increasing flood probabilities by
2035 in the best climate scenario.
influencing the downstream countries in order to control the Mekong
river’s waters and economies. (1)

India: An emerging super power

Continuous threat from the neighbours (1) India, in turn, is also creating zones of
influence with neighbouring countries
• ISRO’s satellite South Asia Satellite for India, Nepal, Bhutan,
Bangladesh, Maldives, Sri Lanka and Afghanistan
• Sale of Brahmos supersonic anti ship cruise missiles to Vietnam
• India-Mauritius maritime agreement
• Defense: Primary vendor was Russia (last recent important contract:
S-400 missiles, 5$Bn, 2018) but since mid-2000s a number of other
suppliers –US, Fr, Israel
• While India has tightened imports from China, its exports to China
grew 78% Y-O-Y (CRISIL report) in June 2020. According to the
Government, trade deficit between India &China in April-June (Q1)
of this fiscal year fell to $5.48 billion, compared to $13.1 billion in the
corresponding period last year
• Exports to other SE Asian nations also increased (Malaysia 76%,
Vietnam 43% and Singapore 37%)

Threat to cyberwarfare growing, strategies to be developed (2)

• Indian citizens, commercial and legal entities faced almost 7 lakh cyber-attacks till August this year.
• India and Japan have finalised an ambitious agreement on cyber-security to boost cooperation on 5G technology, internet
of things (IoT) and artificial intelligence (AI) and critical information infrastructure
• The United States department of defence (DoD) has also exposed an information-stealing malware, SlothfulMedia, which they
said was being used to launch cyberattacks against targets in India, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Malaysia, Russia and Ukraine

India: World’s plagues affecting the already weak people

Covid-19 crisis economic consequences (3)

Floods could push people out of cities (2)
India’s GDP Collapses in face of Pandemic • 36 million people will face annual coastal flooding threats
Quartely GDP growth in India (year-over-year, at constant 2011-12 prices)*
by 2050 and force people to leave coastal cities for villages.

Water crisis: India has the highest

population at risk (4)
• India’s 1.3 billion people only have access to about 4%
of the world’s water and farmers consume almost 90% of
the groundwater available. As global temperatures rise,
the threat to lives and businesses is projected to grow.
Water shortages are already acute.

Source : Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (2020)

Chart 2: Percentage change in key indicators (3) Covid-19 exacerbates existing tensions (1)
Indicator Q1 2019-20 Q1 2020-21
• The pandemic highlights the need to decongest slums to
Production of coal 2.6 -15.0
protect people’s health and wellbeing and to prevent food
Production of cement 1.0 -38.3
Consumption of steel 5.0 -56.8
Total telephone subscribers 1.5 -2.0
Commercial vehicle sales -9.5 -84.8
• The pandemic accentuates the growing rejection of minorities
Cargo handled at major sea ports 1.7 -19.8 (especially Muslims) which reinforces violence and homeland
Cargo handled at airports -6.5 -57.2 insecurity. It encourages the authoritarian tendencies of
Passengers handled at airports -0.6 -94.1 Narendra Modi's government.
Railways, net tonne kilometres 0.7 -26.7
Source : Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation

India: Progressing towards Self-Reliant India (Atmanirbhar Bharat)

• COVID-19: Package of €240Billion equivalent to 10% of the country’s GDP (1)

• FDI limit in the defence manufacturing raised from 49% to 74%

• Separate budget provisioning for domestic capital procurement
• Defence Acquisition Procedure 2020 (01 Oct 2020 - 30 Sep 2025)
• A 10% increase in Indigenous Content across the board
• Encouraging procurement of Indian designed and developed products.
• Reserving higher priority procurement avenues for Indian vendors owned & controlled by Indian citizens
• Introducing the ‘Lease category’ in addition to outright purchase
• Allowing FOEMs to manufacture in India through their own subsidiary
• Shifting focus to investments and ToT in the offset obligations

• Efficient Airspace Management for Civil Aviation Atmanirbhar

• More World-class Airports through PPP (Public-Private Partnership)
• GST For Aviation MRO Industry reduced To 5% from 18% Bharat
(self-reliant India)
• Boosting private participation in Space activities

Progressing towards digital economy

• Biometric Identity and Solution
• Digital Banking and Economic Ecosystem
• Smart City and Smart Energy
• Connectivity and Cyber Security

Reforming Governance for Ease of Doing Business

• India’s position is steadily improving in World Bank’s Doing Business Report rank
from 142 in 2014 to 63 in 2019 Source: 12 May 2020, Financial Express

Indopac: Fractal changes ahead

If ASEAN countries were forced to align themselves

with China or the USA, who would they choose ? (4)

Climate change is shaking

Indopac in depth (2)
• Food and water insecurity and forced migration.
• Geostrategic competition, maritime boundary disputes : WMD
threats from North Korea, ongoing conflicts linked to separatist
movements, transnational violent extremist organizations and
serious organized crime.

• Asset-risks in the region because of sea level rise, storm surges

Choose USA Choose China Almost balanced and saltwater intrusion into freshwater aquifers.

• Indonesia will move its capital city in 2024. Jakarta is sinking 10cm
a year, the new capital planned in Kalimantan (Bornéo) will be
Source : ASEAN Studies Centre at ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute (2019)
sheltered from natural disasters. (3)

Indopac: Focus on Australia

Covid-19 : Australia is strong enough to recover

• Despite a COVID-constrained global economy, rising unemployment and high
government debt, meeting the fiscal challenge is within Australia's means. (3)
• Australian government laid out a AU$270Bn defense plan over 10 years. (2)
• The Morrison Government is also strengthening Australian Industry Capability
(AIC) and refining the way Defense does business with industry. (6)

The crucial importance of developing

Australia’s digital infrastructure
• The Covid-19 crisis revealed the failure to protect digital infrastructure. (4)
• Australian government agencies must enter the grey zone to counter threats
of the future.(1)

“(We foresee) a post-COVID

world that is poorer, that is more
dangerous, and that is more
disorderly” (Australian Prime Minister
Climate change (4) Scott Morrison) July 2020.
• The damage done to Australia by the pandemic could have been much
worse if it had struck in the midst of the bushfires. The rapidly increasing scale,
frequency and impact of climate-related disasters makes simultaneous crises
more likely to happen.
Latin America: Increasingly relying on China
Covid-19 impacts GDP Growth in 2020-2021 (3)
• Two forecasts : IMF April 2020 reviewed by Societe Generale (SG) September 2020.
Brazil Mexico Chile Colombia Argentina

10 5,3 6,1 5,5 6,8

3,6 3,8 3,3 4,9 3,7 3,9
-10 -5,7 -4,5 -5,3
-9,1 -10,5 -9,5 -9,9
2020 IMF 2020 SG 2021 IMF 2021 SG

Digital transformation to “Build Back Better” (5)

• The Covid-19 crisis highlights the digital divide in the region as an urgent concern, as poor and vulnerable workers
without the access and skills to benefit from digital tools are being left behind. As in other places, the current crisis
accelerated digital transformation in several areas of the LATAM economy. Most countries are investing in “digital
government” as a way to have public services and social benefits reaching a larger portion of its population. (6)

China steps up as the US steps back ?

• Chinese involvement in Latin American technology markets is only set to increase. If the U.S.
is truly concerned with the growing Chinese influence in Latin America, public denunciations
and warnings will not suffice. (1)

• At the time when the US own epidemics got exponentially worse, China gave support to Latin American
countries, US did not. More recently, the US has stepped up its game. While China has focused more on
tangible donations, the US has zeroed in on monetary aid. (2) The outcome of US elections in November will
dictate a maintenance or change of course in the relations with the two largest countries in LATAM – Brazil and
Mexico. (7)

Latin America: A rich territory to protect

Low carbon economy for a GDP gain (2/5) (3)

Compared to business-as-usual growth, a rapid shift to a

low-carbon and resilient economy in Brazil could include
a total GDP gain of $535Bn by 2030. The benefits are built
upon quality infrastructure, innovative industry,
deforestation-free, sustainable agriculture, free trade
agreements and green investments.

… by promoting electric mobility (4/6)

The transition to electric mobility could help Latin America
and Caribbean countries to reduce emissions and fulfill
their commitments under the Paris Agreement on climate
change, while generating green jobs as part of their Ice-melting and the new military
recovery plans from the COVID-19 crisis, according to a playground in Antartica (1)
new UNEP (United Nations Environment Program) study.
Nevertheless, it is important to consider that Latin American Unfrozen land in Antartica is an upcoming strategic issue
as the military use of
countries have deep infrastructure problems and finding
the continent could become a reality. The UK, Argentina
sustainable ways to close this gap and fund projects
and Chile have made overlapping claims that include
remains a challenge. The most important topic in the the northern-most part of the West Antarctic Peninsula, a
regional economic agenda is to restore growth. possible source of future conflict.

Middle East: Covid-19, $230 billion in lost annual revenue

Evolution of oil price between 2001 and 2020 (1)

Oil GDP is decreasing

• Oil prices at these levels could result in more than $230 billion in lost
annual revenue for regional oil exporters, compared with October
projections, placing significant strains on fiscal and external balances. (2)

• The IMF has forecast a relatively stronger rebound in the region

Source: New York Times with the overall real GDP growth 4.7% next year with the UAE,
Saudi Arabia and Kuwait bouncing back with 3.3, 2.9 and 3.4%,
respectively, in 2021. (3)

The pandemic decreased the global oil • While Qatar is projected to grow at 5% next year, Oman is forecast
to growth by 3%. This reflects current projections of fading effects
demand. The large increase in oil supply from the COVID-19 outbreak, gradual improvement in oil prices,
and the benefits from sustained global policy easing. (2)
decreased oil prices by more than
60% since the beginning of this year. (2) • The decrease in oil revenues have forced many oil-exporting countries
to cut their total government budgets, which usually also includes
cutting military spending. (3)

Middle East: Oil and Water Quests

China affirmed its position in the Middle East

China increases its presence in the Gulf in order to secure
access to oil and capitalize on the US’ growing disinterest
from the region. (2)

Chinese Investment in GCC and the Middle East by country, 2005-20 (US$ Million) (2)

GCC counrry Other Middle East country


Who said China lacked soft power? (3)

China is now substantially more popular than the US
in key Middle Eastern and Latin American countries
The countries view China more favorably than they
do the US (difference shown in percentage points)
Middle East

Climate change exacerbates

20K 38,640
Tunisia 36

Lebanon 29

water insecurity
15K Jordan 20

Turkey 15
Water insecurity is even more dire for non-sovereign 10K
entities that have no recourse under bilateral or
regional treaties and only weak protections for water 5K

rights. The plight of Palestine is stark in this regard. 5,810

Turkey is also accused of weaponizing water against 0K

Saudi UAE Egypt Iraq Kuwait Qatar Sudan Jordan Oman Morocco Bahrain
the Kurds in the Syrian civil war. (1) Arabia

Middle East: Israel the strongly protected US Ally

“Historic” Israel deal won’t likely bring peace to the Middle East
• The US helped Israel and United Arab Emirates to sign an agreement.
But it may not be the grand achievement it was made out to be. It was largely
focused on sharing intelligence to counter their mutual enemy: Iran. (1)

Emergency COVID19 measures
Syria 4%
• The Israeli government announced a second national 7%
lockdown which leads to thousands of protests threatening 36% Israel
homeland security. As a response, Israeli government has
enacted a law that bans mass protest. (3/4) Egypt 16%

U.S. Foreign Aid in the Middle East in 2019 (2)
• Israel is the first country of the region receiving aids from the US Iraq 18%
accounting for $3.3Bn in 2019. 100% of the aid provided is
military (humanitarian migrants, assistance services…). Jordan

Africa: Covid-19 impacts

Covid-19 impacts on African GDP (1)

• The cumulative loss of Africa’s GDP is estimated of $173.1 billion to $236.7
billion for 2020 and 2021. Tourism-dependent countries, oil exporters and
other resource-intensive economies have been hit hardest.
• The only region on the continent expected to show economic growth
this year is East Africa. This growth is largely driven by strong public spending
in infrastructure, rising domestic demand, the benefit of improved stability,
new investment opportunities and incentives for industrial development.
• Southern Africa will be the hardest hit, contracting as much as 6.6%.

Resilient East(1)
East Africa is the continent’s only region set to grow in 2020
GDP estimate before coronavirus Baseline virus scenario Worst-case virus scenario
Covid-19 puts pressure on African 6%

financial digitalization 4

• One of a biggest obstacles of this digital transformation is
security. TransUnion identified more than 100 million
suspected fraudulent transactions from March to April,
showing the need for Africa to deploy a robust -4

identification verification and fraud detection tools to -6

manage risks. (2)
Africa East Africa North Africa West Africa Central Africa Southern Source: African
Africa Development Bank

Africa: Chinese rising influence

Chinese multiple faces presence

Sub-Saharan Africa exports
• About 3,500 Chinese soldiers landed in the port of Walvis Bay and imports (2018) (4)
and Henties Bay over the last few weeks. Namibian Defense Minister
Peter Vilho denied the allegations. The aim would be to counter the
presence of the US in neighboring Botswana and to establish naval US$ 13,216 million
facilities. (1) US
US$ 14,638 million
• Huawei has supplied 70% of the Africa’s 4G networks vastly
outpacing competitors. The company will supply Africa’s first 5G
network to South Africa. (3)
US$ 45,010 million
• In 2021, China will provide 27% of the loans in DSSI Elegible African China
Countries (the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative) which is more US$ 37,570 million
than any other organizations. In 2018, Angola was the first recipient
with $2,67Bn accounting for 41,3% of the total lend. (2) 0 10 20 30 40 50

Imports Exports
The American trade focus
• Trump administration helps Ethiopia over a Nile dam project that has
become a point of geopolitical tensions partly because of water • Raw materials is the most exported good to China,
supplies. The Egyptian President hints that his country could use for an amount of US$31,947 whereas it’s about
US$6,855 to the USA.
military force to halt the project. (5)
• Capital goods is the most imported good from China
• Trump Administration and Kenyan government launched trade
with an amount of US$19,976.
negotiations on technical barriers to trade, intellectual property,
digital trade, anti-corruption, good regulatory practices and
subsidies. This could be one of the most significant development in
the relationship. (6)

Sub-Saharan Africa: World worst natural disasters impact

Annual Impacts of Natural Disasters

• The impact of climate change on by Country, 2000-18 (1)
growth is larger and longer lasting in 2.Damages (percent of GDP)
Sub-Saharan Africa than in the rest of
the world, reflecting the region’s 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1
lower resilience and coping Madagascar
Post-Disaster Needs Assessment over 20 years
mechanisms, and its dependence on Mozambique
are much larger than Resilience Building
rain-fed agriculture. The resulting Zimbabwe Costs. (1)
amplification of inequalities and Malawi
scarcity of fertile lands, combined Niger
with high population growth, risk Ethiopia
contributing to mass migration and Burkina Faso
conflict. (1) Namibia 10
• Climate change is annually South Africa
responsible in Sub-Saharan Africa for Drought

Benefit-to-cot ratio
at least 1,000 deaths, 13 million Seychelles
people seriously affected (injured, left Kenya
homeless, food insecure, or lacking Senegal Storm
water and sanitation), and US$520 Burundi 2
million in direct economic Comoros
damages.(1) Drought Flood Storm
• For Sub-Saharan Africa, climate World

adaptation will be expensive, SSA

estimated at US$30–50 billion (2–3% of Eastern Africa Sources: Post-Disaster Needs Assessment; Centre for Research on the Epidemiology
of Disasters, Emergency Events Database; and IMF staff calculations.
regional GDP) each year over the Central Africa

next decade, but less costly than Western Africa

frequent disaster relief. (1) Southern Africa


Defence: Covid shakes the Statu Quo

By 2030 USA (Nr1 spender in 2019), Global defence budgets by region 2005-2030 (1)
will be caught by Asia Pac) Nr2 (1)
2 500 8%
• India’s tensions and rivalry with China and Pakistan
are among the major drivers for spendings. (2) 6%
2 000
During COVID 19 Defence highlights (3) 1 500
• 10% drop on 2025 forecast From US$2 to US$1,8 trillion. So

USD billion
budgets stay flat over the next 5 years(3) 1 000
• Suspension of military exercises Decline of demand for
defence equipment and related services (3)
• Defence companies stock price affects the business -4%
developement efforts and other entities may buy out
those cheap shares (3) - -6%

Post COVID 19 Defence highlights (4)

North America ASPAC
• More women, local actors, communities and youth Western Europe MENA
in the peace processes Latin America Eastern Europe
Sub-Saharan Africa Russia and the CIS
• Changed context on International cooperation, Growth Growth (pre-Covid)
national security and governance Source: Janes

Defence: Many challenges

Climate change impacts on defense segment

• Climate change could impact significantly logistics (hydration
requirements, humanitarian assistance because of austere
environment), procurement (reducing carbon use) but also
« A view of Florida's Tyndall Air Force Base on Oct. 11, 2018,
force structure. (1) one day after Hurricane Michael made landfall. U.S. AIR

Can UN Peace maker role continue in 2021?

• During summer 2020, UN Security Council passed resolution
S/RES/2532 (2020), demanding a "general and immediate
cessation of hostilities in all situations on its agenda" calling
for "all parties to armed conflicts to engage immediately in a
durable humanitarian pause" of at least 90 consecutive days,
« What we are currently experiencing is the
and calling for greater international cooperation brain death of NATO » - E.Macron Nov 7th 2019
– The Economist Interview
to address the pandemic. (1)

8 emerging and disruptive defence technologies

• According to NATO 2020-2040 technology trends, the followings were
considered to be major strategic disruptors: Data, Artificial Intelligence,
Autonomy, Space, Hypersonic; and in the long term: Quantum,
Biotechnology, Materials. (2)

Aeronautics: Complex and Slow Reset

Covid-19 Impact(1)
• World passenger traffic (revenue passenger kilometres or RPKs) collapsed
with unprecedented decline in history  World total passengers forecast
for 2020 compared to 2019(according to the main global aviation
• ICAO (15/09/2020): -57% to -61%
• IATA (29/09/2020): -66%
• In July 2020, IATA estimated that global passenger traffic will not return
to pre-COVID-19 levels until 2024, a year later than previously projected.
In September, analysts were speaking about 2025 and even 2026.
• On 30th September 2020, Michael Gill, Exec Director of the cross-industry
Air Transport Action Group declared that the industry expect a reduction
of up to 4.8 million jobs in the sector by the end of the year.

• With emerging technologies like machine learning and fifth-generation
(5G) telecommunications seeing wider adoption—alongside electric
vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL), autonomous aircraft, and
increased use of space—aviation-cybersecurity risk management
is on the cusp of becoming more complex.

Aeronautics: Reinvent before China appears

Climate Change(1)
• Before the covid-19 crisis, growing environmental pressure around Air Transport
was the most strategic topic for the sector. In October 2016,
the ICAO adopted the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for
International Aviation (CORSIA), the emission mitigation approach for the
global airline industry. The air transport sector committed to cut the CO2
emission by 50% by 2050 (compared to 2005) and to guarantee a CO2 neutral
growth from 2020 onwards.
• On 21st September 2020, Airbus announces the kick-off of the ZEROe program, Airbus Hydrogen-Fueled ZEROe Zero-Emissions Passenger Planes Teaser
a revolutionary concept of aircraft fully powered by hydrogen with the
potential to reduce aircraft emissions by up to 50%. Its estimated “Entry In
Service” date would be 2035.

US-China Trade War(2)

• The impact of the US-China trade war on the civil aviation market is rather
limited, even more with the tremendous impact of Covid. In this sector, China is
more impacted than the Western-country players since COMAC, the Chinese
aircraft manufacturer, remains strongly dependent on foreign technology and
parts. Before Covid, Boeing was the second most affected player with Asian
airlines turning to Airbus to order new aircraft. COMAC delivers one ARJ21 aircraft to Chengdu Airlines – April 28, 2020
• US-China Trade War’s impact is more visible on the military sector with an
average10% business growth at the end of Q2 for all aerospace players (Collins
Aerospace and GE Aviation: +10% Sales YoY; BAE Systems: +9%; Honeywell
Aerospace: +7%)

Space: Transform to re-emerge

Constrasted impacts on markets

• Positive momentum for broadband and connectivity market with the
exception of Aircraft and Maritime connectivity as traffic and global
trade decreased. (3)
• Thanks to steady institutional markets, 60 to 70% of industry expected
payment should be made on time despite schedules delays (2)
• European industry revenue decrease is estimated around $1b (2)
• Hard shake-up of Newspace start-ups : investors pressure to particularly
foster natural selection on over-crowded smallsat launch market. (4)
Expected negative Impact of COVID on SATCOM market, src: Euroconsult
• But smallsat market resilient.

Euroconsult’s smallsat forescat vs. market reality

Direct effects on emblematic actors Throughout all five previous editions of the report

• Space actors backed by civil aeronautics groups are hardly hurt:

Boeing Defense ans Space (16 000 jobs cut), Airbus Defense and Space
(10 000 jobs cut). (5)
• OneWeb filled for bankruptcy after fund shortage and unability of its main
investors (Softbank and Intelsat) to refund. The telecom constellation
to be taken-over by UK Government to provide navigation services. (7)
• Intelsat (Telecom Operator) missing to dal with its $15bn debt filled for
Chapter 11 last May. (8)
• Virgin Group sold-off 25 millions of shares of Virgin Galactic to feed
its other tourism-related activities with cash. (6)
• Massive institutional support to the US DoD’s space industry suppliers.(9)
Smallsat market trend reinforced despite COVID crisis, src: Euroconsult

Space: Markets Instability in the new battlefield

Affected Market(s) Impacts

ITAR regulation already limits the trade possibilities with China.

Commercial: Generates uncertainty on border taxes, raw material markets,
neutral to some verticals markets, stock prices with collateral effects on
trade war negative Europe that could have an indirect effect on Space
commercial market.

Institutionnal New geopolitics equilibrium changes the addressability

Multilateral export: neutral of institutionnal exports markets. (ex: Turkey, Russia)

Uncertainty on roadmap as US adminsitration changes often
US election neutral to
implies radical exploration roadmap changes in the past.
(G.W. Bush: Moon, Obama: Mars/Asteroïd, Trump: Moon)

Topic already classicaly addressed
by space agencies science programs.
Climate neutral or
On connectivity: space assets appears as protected from
Change slightly positive
climate change effects (storms, wildfires) and constitutes
resilient solutions in case of natural catastrophe.

New threats in orbit foster innovation and new applications for

Defense military satellites, New vulnerabilities may push to anticipate
institutionnal: the replacement of current satellites for more resilient systems.
World War positive Creation of US Space Force and French Commandement
de l’Espace.

Digital ID and Sec : A boost to digital transformation

A boost to digital interactions and the need for

more digital security
• Lockdowns forced a two-year digital transformation within two months,
according to Microsoft (1)
• In-store contactless payments will increase +55% WW in 2020 but also e-
commerce and other alternate payment methods (4,5,6,7)
• The 4x increase in cybercrime reported by the FBI, and 3x increase witnessed
by banks calls for more digital security (2/3)

Smartphone shipments decline in 2020, but 5G should

drive growth from 2021
• After a 10% to 12% decline forecasted for 2020, full recovery is expected by 2022

Reduced international travel means lower

demand for ePassports
• 92% reduction in international travels vs 2019 (11) means lower ePassports
demand, with IATA highlighting measures for recovery

Digital ID and Sec : To protect sovereignty and privacy

Growing protectionism and techno-nationalism

• US blacklist (1) impacted the semi-conductor industry globally with
China fighting to become chip self-sufficient (2,3) ; and WW
manufacturers weighting issues to the dependence on risky sources

• European Digital Sovereignty call for increased data protection

measures(5) ; EU-US Privacy shield invalidated by the Court of Justice
of the EU (6)
• The 2017 Chinese National Intelligence Law (8) is particularly drawing
attention to Chinese-made apps – such as TikTok (9)

Still limited reduction of competitive threat from Chinese

companies outside of Asia
• Huawei (and ZTE) ban from 5G networks increases (10)
• Chinese retaliation through export controls of locally manufactured products,
and requirement of « made-in-China » label to access their market are still
possible (11,12)

Digital ID and Sec : To optimize resources

Ecological awareness as a growth factor

• The EU target of 55% reduction in greenhouse gas

emissions by 2030 (1) requires innovative and
environmentally-friendly DIS solutions and services
• Increased remote work also reduces carbon foot
print (2)
IoT in Urban mobility
• 5G and IoT can help cut carbon emissions by 15%

• United Nations’ goal of efficient yet protective use of

resources (4) is seriously considered by the payment cards
industry (5) that targets recycled ocean plastic to produce
new eco-friendly cards. (6)

IoT in Agroforestry

Ground transportation : Shaping the future of mobility
Lower demand for transportation during lockdown (3)
• Significant reduction of ridership  Less income from ticketing

Tenders/Projects postponed/ Few cancellations (5)

• Slower growth between 2020-2022 but acceleration in 2023-2025
(growth back to pre-Covid pandemics pace)

Longer term: « rethinking mobility »

• Towards a more sustainable mobility (1): Micromobility /
• Home office / flexible working: will change the face of urban
mobility and intercity as more people could decide to move from
city centers to regional cities
• More demand for contactless ticketing? (6)

More supervision data analytics demands? (2)

• To manage density
• To control hygiene measures / passenger health

Financial support from public authorities

• Germany: acceleration of investments related to « Digitale
Schiene »
• Spain: impulse the digital transformation plan of the railway
infrastructures; offer & services
• France: French Recovery plan will dedicate almost 5Bn€ to
support transport and mobility (4)

Ground transportation : Rail is climate friendly !
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/ Hydrogen-powered train will run
on mainline for the first time TODAY as part of plan to cut diesel

Rail transport is already the « greener » transport mode use –September 30, 2020

but some improvements must be considered

• Rolling stock has a part to play in reduction of green-house gas emissions: hydrogen train
(in France, supported by France Relance recovery plan), in particular for regional lines (1)
• Rail control’s impact is more indirect thanks to more intelligence onboard trains (digital
transformation) which could lead to improvements on predictive maintenance,
operation of braking systems, autonomous trains…

The European Commission has launched a public consultation

to discuss the opportunity to set up a Carbon border tax (2)
• Potential impact on non-European players which were willing to enter the European
railway market

Sino-US trade war: limited impact on rail

• Huawei ban: impact on networks & 5G deployment
• Possible difficulties for Chinese rolling stock suppliers to expand in the market,
no impact on rail control (standard issues, safety requirements)

• With more artificial intelligence onboard trains (cf. autonomy) and wayside +
MaaS apps  increased risk of cyber attacks  more companies interested
in addressing this market (1)
• Public funding to address innovation on this topic (2)
• More customers requirements to address cybersecurity issues in tenders



The world calls for: The market calls for:

• A trustable value proposition, • Low carbon emissions,

• A resilient supply, • Cyber resilience,

• A secured digitally connected people, • Less border constraints,

• A sovereign and privacy-caring governed • Adaptation to trends in their influence

cyberspace. zones (Climate, Sovereignty, …)

Global context take-aways


Opposite trends of GDP growth and COVID deaths
The world awaits the vaccine and treatments
De Urbanization and Inequality increase
Europe new cases second surge Generalized remote working, e-transactions.
Key importance of the quality of the crisis analysis
Political leadership challenged: human versus and of the recovery actions
Internet battlefield grows
De-Globalization and Value Chain Transformation

US wants to force Free trade and maintain US Financial, Trade and Technology World technological decoupling: China
Technology Supremacy Coercion intensifies Standards 2035
UN, WHO, IMF, G20 questionned Made in China 2025, China Standards Opportunity for Europe: Post Digital Era Year 0
Emergence of 2 blocks around US and China. 2035, New Infrastructure Initiative Need for a new Cyberspace Governance:
A new geostrategic Turkey. An Indopacific Front. US$ or Renminbi Paris Call, Gaia X, Chinese New Digital initiative

14 governments invest 184BUS$ in green plans

Climate hazards spread and frequence grows
Climate Hazards impact more the GDP of Technology is both a tool and a challenge
Conflicts on natural resources
southern hemisphere Green Recovery plans generate innovation
Arctic is a new playground
Finance World supports the Green recovery plans

Regions take-aways - 1


A -23,9% GDP Growth on Q1 2021
China's GDP to grow 2x faster than the
A 750Bn euros Recovery Fund Agreement on a stimulus recovery plan US one in 2021 Package of €240Billion equivalent to
is crippled 10% of the country’s GDP
Europe's digital sovereignty Covid-19 accelerates the Chinese
development: Gaia -X, Paris Call Puts stress on security and disinformation domestic development: Chinese Covid-19 exacerbates existing tensions :
reform, reinforced the digital economy slums, food insecurity, rejection of

The importance of cooperation with Affirmation of the Sino-Us technology Reacting with Industrial and
China on multilateral issues such as divide Technological sovereignty plans
global warming, international security Biden could improve US-India relations
A surprising US dependency on (Made in China 2025, China Standards
and international trade
Chinese suppliers 2035, New Infrastructure Initiative Continuous threats from the neighbours:
The view by Europeans on China and India creates zones of Influence
Biden's election : a highest priority on Driving a shift towards "intelligentized
the US has worsened during the
alliances and partnerships warfare"

Climate change ambitions boosted by the

Dilemna: to contain climate change
Coal : the major shift of climate policy in or to grow
Germany Floods could push people out of cities
Biden’s election could reinforce Floods impacts on infrastructure and
Development of net zero initiatives in UK (Fly Water crisis : India has the highest
Zero and Jet Zero) climate change policy supply chains
population at risk
Economic risk and opportunity in Artic How a water crisis could become
Expanding the Russo-German energy
a new front in US-China rivalry

Regions take-aways - 2


Rises authoritarian coercion on
people: democratic backsliding, Covid-19 impacts on African GDP
human rights abuses, corruption, and Impact of the pandemic on the oil growth: East is less affected than
Huge impact on GDP but recover southern Africa
disinformation price which impacts the GDP
in 2021
growth of the countries in the region Covid-19 puts pressure on African
Australia is strong enough to recover
Financial digitalisation
Australia increases defense spendings

Chinese multiple faces presence:

China affirmed its position in the technological, economical and
China steps up as the US steps back? military
Middle East
A more pro-China region 6 countries of the region view more
Israel is the strongly protected US American trade focus (Ethiopia and
favorably China than the US Kenya)
Trade more with China than the US

Low carbon economy for a GDP Sub-Saharan Africa is one of the most
Climate change is shaking Indopac gain of $535Bn by 2030 impacted region.
in depth Climate change exacerbates water
Promoting electric mobility Post Disaster Needs Assessment over
Indonesia will move its capital city insecurity in the region
Ice Melting and the new military 20 years are much larger than
in 2024
playground in Antartica Resilience Building Costs.

Market take-aways


new path for intercity
European Industry slow
mobility (de-urbanization)
Dramatic 66% passenger traffic down except on broadband
and connectivity market. Severe IT budget cuts more data analytics to
Slower budgets growth till 2025 drop
Remote working is a Cyber manage density
Industry consolidation Industries hardly hit with job Job cuts
business catalyst Recovery plans in Europe
cuts Debt crisis leading to
include large transport and
bankruptcy and selling offs.
mobility fundings

5G backdoor suspicion over

Tariffs and ITAR limit Chinese Huawei antennas
Chinese aeronautics US CRRC 80% market share on
market access
International peace dependant China dependant on american world rolling stocks becomes
governance powerless US Election might again chips a major matter of US national
Business boost for the US
change the exploration sovereignty
military Aeronautic Industry Chinese applications Wechat
program roadmaps
and Tiktok threatened in the US

CO2 neutral growth starting Space solutions is a monitoring Rail becomes the favourite
2020 mean of the situation Emerging technologies, such green transportation vs Air
Adjusted logistics and missions as 5G and IoT, can help
hydrogen powered aircraft Space Connectivity is more combat climate change Potential CO2 emission Tariffs
concept by 2035 resilient to the climate change on public tenders


Part Slide Sources
(1) 03/09/2020 – Our world in data
(2) 11/08/2020 - Knowledge@Wharton - The Post-COVID-19 World Will Be Less Global and Less Urban
Slide 6 (3) 18/09/2020 – The NY Times (By Jonathan Corum, Katherine J. Wu and Carl Zimmer) - Coronavirus Drug and Treatment Tracker
(4) 18/09/2020 – The NY Times (Jonathan Corum, Sui-Lee Wee and Carl Zimmer) - Coronavirus Vaccine Tracker
Slide 7 (1) 30/10/20 – World Health Organization
(1)11/08/2020 - Knowledge@Wharton - The Post-COVID-19 World Will Be Less Global and Less Urban Urban
Slide 8
(2)29/07/2020 - Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington (Sam Brannen) - COVID 19 reshapes the future
(1)07/09/2020 – L’Opinion (Alain Bauer)- «Le prochain virus sera cyber»
(2)03/2011 – Centre de Recherches Internationales de Sciences Po (Heli Tiirmaa-Klaar) -Cyber Security Threats and responses : at Global,
Nation-State… – http://www.ceri-sciences-po.org
(3)29/06/2018 - Magazine Feature (Phil Muncaster) - World War Cyber
Slide 9
(4)11/01/2018 - Chatham House - Cybersecurity of Nuclear Weapons Systems: Threats, Vulnerabilities and Consequences

(5) 09/2020 - RUSI Occasional Paper - State Cyberspace Operations - Proposing a Cyber Response Framework
(6)12/10/2018 – Defense.gov (Katie Lang) - Cybercom: How DOD’s Newest Unified ‘Cocom’ Works
(7) 20/08/2020 - NTT Security - 2019 Global Threat Intelligence Report
(1)16/01/2020 – McKinsey & Company - Global Institute analysis - https://www.mckinsey.com/business-functions/sustainability/our-
Slide 10 insights/climate-risk-and-response-physical-hazards-and-socioeconomic-impacts
(1) 09/09/2020 – Bloomberg - Emissions are already heading back to pre-pandemic levels https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-
Slide 11 09/climate-change-report-coronavirus-will-not-slow-global-warming
(2) 16/06/2020 – Carbon Brief - Coronavirus: Tracking how the world’s ‘green recovery’ plans aim to cut emission
(1) 09/2020 - IHS Markit - US-Mainland China relations – Economics and Country risk special report
(2) 10/01/2019 - The Epoch Times (Singapore edition- China-US Trade War –What is the relationship between the current trade war and the
Slide 12 opium wars, and what effect could it have on our current world order? -https://epochtimes.today
(3) 07/08/2020 – China Briefing – How foreign technology investors benefit from China’s new infrastructure plan https://www.china-
(1) 10/08/2020 – Lowy Institute – The most important American election ever - https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/most-important-
Slide 13 (2) 07/07/2020 - Global Spectator (Andrés Ortega) - Multilateralism has lost its way
(3) 08/09/2020 – Express.co.uk – Trump in huge election 2020 poll celebration as he prepares for victory “bigger than 2016” -

Part Slide Sources
(1) 10/09/2020 – SIPRI video - Sustaining Peace in the Time of COVID-19
(2) 13/10/2020 – Atalayar - Turkey and its interventionist policy: could it now focus on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict?
Slide 15
(3) 13/10/2020 - China - China accuses US of ‘stirring up confrontation’ in Asia-Pacific
(4) 08/09/2020 – Aljazeera - What is behind the hype about the new Iran-China partnership?
(1) 30/07/2020 – ECFR - Europe’s digital sovereignty: From rulemaker to superpower in the age of US-China rivalry – ECFR/336 and particularly those by Torreblanca on disinformation, Andrew Puddephatt on internet
governance, and Ulrike Franke on artificial intelligence (AI)
Slide 16
(2) 2020/08/20 - NTT Security - 2019 Global Threat Intelligence Report
(3) 12/02/2019 - Accenture - The post-digital era is coming: Are you ready?
(1) 2020 – World Bank Global – World Bank Global Outlook 2050 Strategic Directions Note
(2) 2019 – Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations 2019
(3) 16/01/2020 – McKinsey & Company – Climate Risk and response : Physical hazards and socioeconomic impacts
(4) 2019 – World Economic Forum - WEF Global Risks Report
Slide 17
(5) 2020 – World Economic Forum - WEF Global risks report
(6) World Water council – Water Crisis https://www.worldwatercouncil.org/en/water-crisis
(7) 10/09/2020 - SIPRI video - Sustaining Peace in the Time of COVID-19 - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1dEF_POo-
Global context

(1) 01/09/2020 – Our World in data - Which countries have protected both health and the economy in the pandemic?
Slide 18
(2) 10/2020- WORLD Economic Outlook: IMF A long and difficult ascent
Slide 19 (1) 06/2020 – Oliver Wyman - Post COVID megatrends opportunities
(1) 29/07/2020 - Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington (Sam Brannen) - COVID 19 reshapes the future
Slide 20 (2) 03/09/2020 – Asia Global Online – Rebuilding cities better post covid19 world https://www.asiaglobalonline.hku.hk/rebuilding-cities-better-post-covid-19-world
(3)13/08/2020 – VoxEU – Global Value Chain Transformation - https://voxeu.org/article/global-value-chain-transformation-decade-ahead
Slide 21 (1)13/08/2020 – VoxEU – Global Value Chain Transformation - https://voxeu.org/article/global-value-chain-transformation-decade-ahead
(1)08/07/2020 – ECFR - How the US could ramp up its economic war on China https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_how_the_us_could_ramp_up_its_economic_war_on_china
Slide 22
(2)17/02/2020 – ECFR – 2020 The year of economic coercion under Trump - https://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_2020_the_year_of_economic_coercion_under_trump
(1) 08/08/2020 – Bloomberg – Here’s How a Biden Victory Could Give European Assets a Boost
(2) BCG – How to change course on climate - https://www.bcg.com/featured-insights/how-to/stop-climate-change
Slide 23
(3) 2019 – World Economic Forum - WEF Global risks report
(4) 06/2020 – Our World in Data video – Climate Kurzgesagt - https://ourworldindata.org/climate-kurzgesagt-video
(1) 03/08/2020 - Marko Ermann Interview, CTO Thales SA
(2) 20/08/2020 - NTT Security - 2019 Global Threat Intelligence Report
Slide 24 (3) 07/01/2020 – CIRCLE ID – Internet governance outlook 2020 next generation of players http://www.circleid.com/posts/20200107_internet_governance_outlook_2020_next_generation_of_players/
(4) 2020 – World Economic Forum - WEF Global risks report
(5) 06/2020 – Oliver Wyman – Post-covid megatrends opportunities
(1) 05/06/2019 - BCG - Unpacking the US−China Tech Trade War
Slide 25
(2) 05/2020 - IRSEM - Research Paper No. 98 4
(1) 01/2020 – The shift project (Hugues Ferreboeuf) - Déployer la sobriété numérique
(2) 08/06/2020 – Siecle digital – Zoom un trimestre plein de réussite pour la plateforme de téléconférence https://siecledigital.fr/2020/06/08/zoom-un-trimestre-plein-de-reussite-pour-la-plateforme-de-teleconference/
Slide 26
(3) 16/06/2020 – Carbon Brief - Coronavirus: Tracking how the world’s ‘green recovery’ plans aim to cut emission
(4) 19/07/2020 – Le Parisien – Le télétravail est il bon pour l’environnement https://www.leparisien.fr/environnement/le-teletravail-est-il-bon-pour-l-environnement-19-07-2020-8355279.php

Part Slide Sources
(1) 21/07/2020 – Consilium.Europa.eu – European council final conclusions - https://www.consilium.europa.eu/media/45109/210720-euco-final-conclusions-en.pdf
(2) 25/08/2020 - The conversation // https://theconversation.com/accord-europeen-du-21-juillet-2020-un-premier-pas-vers-une-necessaire-consolidation-de-la-zone-euro-144961
(3) 08/09/2020 - S&P Webinar – Rediscovering Europe’s Growth Dynamics
Slide 28 (4) 21/08/2020 – VoxEu - Stable consensus on European mutual assistance is possible
(5) 30/07/2020 – ECFR - Europe’s digital sovereignty: From rulemaker to superpower in the age of US-China rivalry
(6) 09/2020 – IFRI (Clément Beaune) - Covid-19 : A bas la mondialisation, vive l'Europe ?
(7)14/09/2020 – Ministère de l’économie des finances et de la relance – GAIA-X : 1ère coopération franco-allemande https://www.economie.gouv.fr/gaia-x-1-cooperation-franco-allemande#
(1) 11/09/2020 – La Libre Belgique (Olivier le Bussy) - L'Europe risque de se perdre dans le brouillard des investissements chinois
Slide 29 (2) 01/07/2020 – IFRI - Capitaine dans la tempête : défis et enjeux de la présidence allemande du conseil de l'UE
(3) 29/06/2020 – ECFR - Together in trauma: Europeans and the world after covid-19 https://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/together_in_trauma_europeans_and_the_world_after_covid_19
(1)17/08/2020 – Deutschlandfunk- Wälder gesperrt wegenherabstürzender Äste
(2)10/08/2020 – S&P - EU recovery plan could act as lightning rod for green bond market
Slide 30 (3) 03/09/2020 – REUTERS (Philip Blenkinsop) - Striving for green recovery, The European Commission EU adds lithium to critical materials list https://www.reuters.com/article/us-eu-commodities-idUSKBN25U1CQ
(4) 09/2020 - European Council - Climate change plan for 2030 - https://ec.europa.eu/clima/policies/eu-climate-action/2030_ctp_de
(5) 03/07/2020 - Frankfurter Allgemeine - Bundestag beschließt Kohleausstieg
(1) 21/07/2019 – UkDefenceJournal – Joint Forces command renamed strategic command- https://ukdefencejournal.org.uk/joint-forces-command-renamed-strategic-command/
Regional context

(1) 26/02/2020 – Techuk - Visions for STRATCOM: Putting Cyber at the heart of the militaryhttps://www.techuk.org/insights/news/item/16927-visions-for-stratcom-putting-cyber-at-the-heart-of-the-military
(2) 11/03/2020 – Gov.uk – Budget 2020 : What you need to know https://www.gov.uk/government/news/budget-2020-what-you-need-to-know
(2) 19/03/2020 – Techuk – Budget 2020 : The R&D Budget - https://www.techuk.org/insights/news/item/17091-budget-2020-the-r-d-budget
Slide 31 (2) The Financial times - UK public borrowing to exceed £350bn with Sunak stimulus plan - https://www.ft.com/content/ad1688ee-3d8d-4e52-9b16-a3632eed8be9
(2) 21/07/2020 – Gov.uk – Chancellor launches Comprehensive Spending Review - https://www.gov.uk/government/news/chancellor-launches-comprehensive-spending-review
(3) 09/2020 - Institute for government – UK net zero target - https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/explainers/net-zero-target
(4) 10/09/2020 – La Tribune (Jean-Baptiste Oubrier) - Pandémie puis Brexit sans accord ? Le RU risque un double choc
(5) 21/08/2020 – IHS Markit - Brexit and the UK economic impact - https://ihsmarkit.com/research-analysis/brexit-and-the-uk-economic-impact.html
(1) 16/04/2020 – Russia Today – Covid-19 quarantine Russia cost //www.rt.com/russia/486041-covid-19-quarantine-russia-cost/
(2) 20/08/2020 – IISS Defense news - Budget and pandemic present challenges to Russia's defence industrial base
Slide 32 (3) 12/05/2020 – Fondation pour la recherche stratégique (Isabelle Faucon) - La russie face à la covid-19 enjeux nationaux et internationaux
(4) 06/2020 – IFRI - Russian strategic culture
(5) 02/06/2020 – The Moscow times – Russia prices economic recovery plan
(1) 06/2020 – IFRI - Transformation of Russian strategic culture
(2) 06/04/2020 – SIPRI - Russia's new Artic Policy document signals continuity rather than change
(3) 03/2020 – IFRI - Russia's artic Policy
Slide 33
(4) 07/07/2020 – S&P - Russia, Germany mull hydrogen partnership to fight climate change
(5) 09/2020 – Fondation pour la Recherche Stratégique - Why Russia’s alliance with China is improbable, but not impossible
(6) 09/04/2019 – CBC - Putin presents ambitious Arctic expansion program - Image : Russia’s artic build-up : https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/russia-ambitious-arctic-program-1.5090295
(1) 17/08/2020 – AEI - Department of Defense's dependence on Chinese suppliers must be addressed
Slide 34 (3) 14/09/2020 – Brookings - There are no winners in US-China technology divide
(4) 24/09/2020 - Avascent Webinar - The US Defense Market Under a Biden Administration: Prospects for Change & Continuity
(1) 07/2020 – IISS - COVID-19 and the US military
(2) 20/08/2020 – Politico (Eric Geller) Biden prepping to ramp up U.S. cyber defenses — while keeping some Trump policies
Slide 35 (3) 19/08/2020 – ORF - Domestic terrorism in the US, disinformation and the impact of COVID-19
(4) 14/09/2020 – Bloomberg - US faces last chance to salvage stimulus deal as house returns
(5) 11/07/2020 – Bloomberg - Biden unveils $975 billion US recovery plan

Part Slide Sources
(1) 17/09/2020 – Bloomberg Government (Zachary Sherwood and Brandon Lee) - What to Know in Washington: Trump Divides GOP on Stimulus
(2) 12/08/2020- S&P- Biden's VP pick strong advocate of environmental justice, climate action
Slide 36 (3) 24/09/2020 - Avascent Webinar - The US Defense Market Under a Biden Administration: Prospects for Change & Continuity
(4) 17/09/2020 – Bloomberg - Bipartisan House Plan Takes Crack At Combating Climate Change
(5) 20/08/2020 – Le Point - Quand trop d’énergies renouvelables privent la Californie… d’électricité
(1) 07/09/2020 – Project Syndicate - China’s Rapid Shift to a Digital Economy
Slide 37 (2) 07/08/2020 – Brookings - The COVID19 recession is a good time to accelerate Chinese reform
(3) 10/2020 – IMF – World Economic Outlook > Graphique
(1) 09/2020 – IHS Markit - US-Mainland China relations – Economics and Country risk special report
Slide 38 (2) 19/08/2020 – Lowy Institute - How China Reversed the new great game of strategic competition
(3) 01/09/2020 – Office of the secretary of defense - Annual report to congress : Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2020
(1) 24/07/2020 – VOA Cambodia - Water wars: Mekong River another front in U.S.-China rivalry
(2) 04/08/2020 – China Dialogue – Why its time to build climate resilience into manufacturing
Slide 39 (3) 23/09/2020 – The diplomat - China’s New Carbon Neutrality Commitment Will Affect Global Energy Security
(4) 28/08/2020 – Bloomberg View - The Big China Disaster That You're Missing
Regional context

(5) 18/09/2020 – The diplomat - The China Climate Challenge

(1) Revistarmilitar: http://www.revistamilitar.pt/artigo.php?art_id=798
(1) China: String of Pearls, Belt and Road Initiative (including China-Pakistan-Economic Corridor)
(1) Pakistan: Kashmir issue, heightened tension since Pulwama attack on 14 Feb 2019 and decision taken in 5 August 2019 regarding autonomous status of Jammu & Kashmir
(2) 22/09/20 – Hindustan times – Nearly 7 lakh cyber attacks in 2020, IT Ministry tells parliament - https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/nearly-7-lakh-cyber-attacks-in-2020-it-ministry-tells-parliament/story-
Slide 40
(3) 08/10/20 – ET Government – India, Japan finalise pact for cooperation in 5G tech, AI and critical information infra https://government.economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/technology/india-japan-finalise-
(4) 14/10/20 – Varindia – Threat to cyberwarfare is growing, strategies need to be develop - https://varindia.com/news/threat-to-cyberwarfare-is-growing-strategies-need-to-be-developed
(1) 19/08/2020 – New Climate Economy - Covid exposes underinvestment in cities. India must rethink its approach for an inclusive future
(2) 11/07/2020 – Dehli Post - Deurbanisation: ‘New India’ to Live in Small Towns and Villages
Slide 41
(3) 01/09/2020 – Indian Express – India’s GDP Collapse in face of Pandemic https://indianexpress.com/article/explained/gdp-contraction-23-9-the-economics-behind-the-math-6578046/
(4) 21/07/2020 – Bloomberg - India's Water Crisis Is Becoming a Problem for Modi
(1) 12/05/20 - Financial Express - Modi’s Rs 20 lakh crore 2020 reform package: Who is it for? What’s in it for various sections? - https://www.financialexpress.com/economy/economic-relief-package-narendra-modi-
Slide 42
(1) 25/09/2020 – CSIS - Post-pandemic Governance in the Indo-Pacific: Adapting USAID’s Strategy in the Face of Covid-19
(2) 10/08/2020 – The diplomat - Climate Change Is a Security Threat to the Asia-Pacific
Slide 43
(3) 27/08/2020 – Straits times - East Kalimantan to be home of Indonesia's new capital: Jokowi
(4) 16/01/2020 – Think China - ASEAN’s future: China or the US? https://www.thinkchina.sg/aseans-future-china-or-us
(1) 06/07/2020 – Lowy Institute - AUSTRALIA MUST ENTER THE GREY ZONE TO COUNTER THREATS OF THE FUTURE - https://www.lowyinstitute.org/publications/australia-must-enter-grey-zone-counter-threats-future
(2) 25/07/2020 – Foreign Policy - Australia Is Having a Strategic Revolution, and It’s All About China
(3) 20/08/2020 – Lowy Insitute – The costs of covid – Australia’s economic prospects in a wounded world
Slide 44
(4) 02/05/2020 – Australian Strategic Policy Institute - After Covid-19: Australia and the world rebuild (Volume 1)
(5) 20/07/2020 – Brookings - Great expectations: The unraveling of the Australia-China relationship -https://www.brookings.edu/articles/great-expectations-the-unraveling-of-the-australia-china-relationship/
(6) 10/2020 - Australian government department of defense - https://www.defence.gov.au/SPI/Industry/AIC.asp

Part Slide Sources
(1) 12/08/2020 – The global americans - The rise of Chinese technology in Latin America - https://theglobalamericans.org/2020/08/the-rise-of-chinese-technology-in-latin-america/
(2) 15/08/2020 – CNN - Pandemic power play: It's China vs. the US in Latin America https://edition.cnn.com/2020/08/15/americas/latam-china-us-covid-diplomacy-intl/index.html
(3) 07/09/2020 - Societe generale Economics Cross Asset Research - Global Economic Outlook: Now comes the hard part
(4) 03/01/2018 – Prison Planet - Eurasia Group Warns A “Major Geopolitical Crisis” May Be Coming In 2018 https://www.prisonplanet.com/eurasia-group-warns-a-major-geopolitical-crisis-may-be-coming-in-2018.html
(5) 24/09/2020 – OECD – Latin American Economic Outlook 2020 - https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/docserver/e6e864fb-
Slide 45 en.pdf?expires=1601542882&id=id&accname=guest&checksum=2FD7A8B8A6AE5F19C9FBB0058A20B996
(6) 20/10/2020 – BBC - Eleições nos EUA: o que o Brasil pode ganhar ou perder com resultado das eleições nos EUA https://www.bbc.com/portuguese/brasil-54611914
(6) 23/10/2020 – ASCOA – US 2020 Joe Biden and Donald Trump on Mexico Relations https://www.as-coa.org/articles/us-2020-joe-biden-and-donald-trump-mexico-relations
(7) 09/07/2020 – CAF - Digital Transformation to Aid Latin American Governments in Fight against COVID-19
(7) 01/10/2020 – Techcrunch – Latin America’s digital transformation is making up for lost time - https://techcrunch.com/2020/10/01/latin-americas-digital-transformation-is-making-up-for-lost-time/
(7) 29/04/2020 – Govbr - Brasil lança sua Estratégia de Governo Digital para 2020 a 2022
(1) 09/2020 – Encyclopedia – Antartic issues and challenges - https://www.encyclopedia.com/environment/energy-government-and-defense-magazines/antarctic-issues-and-challenges
(2) 25/08/2020 – USNews – How Brazil can have a green economic - https://www.usnews.com/news/best-countries/articles/2020-08-25/commentary-how-brazil-can-have-a-green-economic-
(3) 18/10/2007 – Dailyco.uk - Scramble for Antarctica: Argentina hits back after Britain makes land grab - Map : https://www.grida.no/resources/6147
(4) 02/07/2020 – UnEnvironnement / Electric mobility could help clean air and boost green jobs part - https://www.unenvironment.org/news-and-stories/press-release/electric-mobility-could-help-clean-air-and-boost-
Regional context

Slide 46 (5) 10/2020 – Agencia Brasil - https://agenciabrasil.ebc.com.br/en/economia/noticia/2020-10/minister-mercosur-eu-deal-not-threat-environment
(6) 22/10/2020 – Blog IMF - Pandemic Persistence Clouds Latin America and Caribbean Recoveryhttps://blogs.imf.org/2020/10/22/pandemic-persistence-clouds-latin-america-and-caribbean-recovery/
(6) 13/10/2020 – Agencia Brasil - Minister: Mercosur–EU deal not a threat to environment+C180
(6) 08/08/2020 – Bloomberg – Latin America infrastructure woes add to inequality - https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-08/latin-america-infrastructure-woes-add-to-inequality
(6) Inter-American Development Bank – From structures to services the path to better infrastructure in LATAC https://publications.iadb.org/publications/english/document/From-Structures-to-Services-The-Path-to-
(6) 10/2020 – Valor Economico – Recuperaçao com uma infraestrutura sustentavel - https://valor.globo.com/opiniao/coluna/recuperacao-com-uma-infraestrutura-sustentavel.ghtml
(1) 20/04/2020 – NY Times – Business oil prices - Graphique : https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/business/oil-prices.html
Slide 47 (2) 15/04/2020 – Gulfnews - COVID-19, oil prices : A double whammy for Middle East oil exporters, says IMF
(3) 26/04/2017 – Business Insider - Oil prices can tell you a lot about military spending ( https://www.businessinsider.com/military-expenditure-correlated-with-global-oil-prices-2017-4?IR=T)
(1) 02/09/2020 – CFR - Navigating Rough Waters: The Limitations of International Watercourse Governance - https://www.cfr.org/blog/navigating-rough-waters-limitations-international-watercourse-governance
Slide 48 (2) 26/09/2020 – Belt and road news - U.S, Middle East and China: Oil, Power & Geo-Strategic Influence
(3) 03/01/2018 – Prison Planet - Eurasia Group Warns A “Major Geopolitical Crisis” May Be Coming In 2018 https://www.prisonplanet.com/eurasia-group-warns-a-major-geopolitical-crisis-may-be-coming-in-2018.html
(1) 17/08/2020 – The conversation - ‘Historic’ Israel deal won’t likely bring peace to the Middle East https://theconversation.com/historic-israel-deal-wont-likely-bring-peace-to-the-middle-east-144480
(2) US Aid - https://explorer.usaid.gov/cd/KWT?fiscal_year=2019&measure=Obligations
Slide 49
(3) 30/09/2020 – The Guardian - Anti-democratic law': Israel bans mass protests as Covid lockdown tightens
(4) 26/09/2020 – Time - Thousands Protest Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Jerusalem Despite COVID-19 Lockdown https://time.com/5893738/israel-protest-netanyahu-covid19-lockdown/
(1) 07/07/2020 – Bloomberg - Africa GDP May Slump 3.4% in Worst-Case Scenario, AfDB Says
Slide 50
(2) 11/08/2020 – Alla Africa - African banks under pressure to accelerate digital transformation
(1) 03/09/2020 - ADIT The Bulletin N°501
(2) 17/08/2020 – The diplomat - China, the World Bank, and African Debt: A War of Words
(3) 08/01/2020 – Asiatimes - China, US face off in Middle East and Africa https://asiatimes.com/2020/01/china-us-face-off-in-middle-east-and-africa/
Slide 51
(4) 09/2020 - World Integrated Trade Solution https://wits.worldbank.org/countrysnapshot/en/SSF/textview
(5) 25/07/2020 – Foreign Policy - Trump Mulls Withholding Aid to Ethiopia Over controversial dam
(6) 29/07/2020 – Brookings - The US and Kenya launch negociatons on a free trade agreement. Will they succeed ?
Slide 52 (1) 04/2020 – IMF - Adapting to Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa

Part Slide Sources
(1) 05/2020 - Tableau – Janes Covid Impact, Global Defense budget
(2) 04/2020 - SIPRI, Military Expenditure Database
Slide 54
(3) 27/07/2020 - The diplomat – How covid-19 will impact the defence industry
4) 10/09/2020 – SIPRI video - Sustaining Peace in the Time of COVID-19
(1) 2019 - Janes Climate Change and Future Security Threats
Slide 55
(2) NATO « Science & Technology Trends-2020-2040 »
(1) https://www.icao.int/sustainability/Documents/COVID-19/ICAO_Coronavirus_Econ_Impact.pdf
(1) https://www.airlines.iata.org/analysis/traffic-recovery-slower-than-expected
Slide 56
(2) https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/news/press-releases/atlantic-council-releases-new-report-aviation-cybersecurity-scoping-the-challenge/
(2) https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/in-depth-research-reports/report/aviation-cybersecurity-scoping-the-challenge-report/
(1) https://greenaviation.org/
(1) https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/CORSIA/Pages/default.aspx
(1) https://corporate.airfrance.com/fr/communique-de-presse/le-secteur-aerien-francais-mobilise-en-faveur-de-la-lutte-contre-le-changement
(1) https://www.airbus.com/newsroom/stories/these-new-Airbus-concept-aircraft-have-one-thing-in-common.html
Slide 57
(1) https://www.airbus.com/innovation/zero-emission/hydrogen/zeroe.html
5 markets segments

(2) https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Aerospace-Defense/China-s-homegrown-jet-hits-turbulence-from-US-trade-war
(2) https://simpleflying.com/how-airlines-got-hammered-by-the-us-china-trade-war-in-2019/
(2) Résultats financiers des groupes dans la défense à Q2, cf. publications sur les sites internet
(1)07/2020 - Euroconsult smallsat 2020 study
(2)ASD-Eurospace - Eurospace de l’impact de la crise Covid-19
(3) 19/03/2020 – Space News- Space should fare better against coronavirus than other industries, report says https://spacenews.com/space-may-fare-better-against-coronavirus-than-other-industries-report-
(4) 06/20 - Via Satellite - Startups post-pandemic survival depends on timing and investor quality http://interactive.satellitetoday.com/via/june-2020/startups-post-pandemic-survival-depends-on-timing-and-
Slide 58 investor-quali...
(5) 29/04/2020 – Les Echos - Boeing va supprimer 10 % de ses effectifs et réduire durablement sa production
(6) 11/05/2020 – Satellite Todat – Virgin group to sell virgin galatic stock to combat covid-19 losses
(7) 30/03/2020 - Spacelight Insider – Oneweb announces layoffs, files for bankruptcy following latest launch
(8) 15/06/2020 – Space Flight Now – Intelsat, SES buy 10 C-band broadcast satellites from US manufacturers
(9) 25/03/2020 – Space News - Space and Missile Systems Center taking action to help contractors during pandemic
(1) Satya Nadella, CEO Microsoft
(2) 20/04/2020 – Engadget - The FBI sees cybercrime reports increase fourfold
(3) 23/07/2020 – MIT Sloan Management Review - Banks are now fending off nearly three times as many cyberattacks
(4) 08/20 – Juniper
(5) Mastercard
(6) 18/08/20 - US Census Bureau
(7) The payers
Slide 60
(8) 01/06/2020 – Gartner – Gartner says global smartphone sales declined
(9) 22/06/2020 – Counterpoint - Mobile Handset Shipment Forecast by Region (Long Term)
(10) 27/08/2020 – IDC - Global Smartphone Shipments Expected to Drop Nearly 10% in 2020, But a Strong 5G Push Is Expected to Bring the Market Back to Growth in 2021
(11) 22/09/2020 – IATA - IATA Calls for Systematic COVID-19 Testing Before Departure
(12) 09/09/2020 – Le Figaro – Le fret aérien retrouve des couleurs selon l’IATA
(13) 05/2020 – Web UNWTO
(14) 10/09/20 –S&P – Bank disruptors doubling down on mobile payments in China

Part Slide Sources
(1) Satya Nadella, CEO Microsoft
(2) 20/04/2020 – Engadget - The FBI sees cybercrime reports increase fourfold
(3) 23/07/2020 – MIT Sloan Management Review - Banks are now fending off nearly three times as many cyberattacks
(4) 08/20 – Juniper
(5) Mastercard
(6) 18/08/20 - US Census Bureau
(7) The payers
Slide 60
(8) 01/06/2020 – Gartner – Gartner says global smartphone sales declined
(9) 22/06/2020 – Counterpoint - Mobile Handset Shipment Forecast by Region (Long Term)
(10) 27/08/2020 – IDC - Global Smartphone Shipments Expected to Drop Nearly 10% in 2020, But a Strong 5G Push Is Expected to Bring the Market Back to Growth in 2021
(11) 22/09/2020 – IATA - IATA Calls for Systematic COVID-19 Testing Before Departure
(12) 09/09/2020 – Le Figaro – Le fret aérien retrouve des couleurs selon l’IATA
(13) 05/2020 – Web UNWTO
(14) 10/09/20 –S&P – Bank disruptors doubling down on mobile payments in China
5 markets segments

(1) 04/09/20 – Reuters - Trump administration weighs blacklisting China's chipmaker SMIC
(2) 21/09/2020 – CNBC – China releases details on unreliable entity list raising uncertainty for foreign businesses
(3) 07/07/2020 – Nikkei - China quadruples fundraising pace for chip self-sufficiency
(4) 09/09/2020 - Harward Business Review – Global Supply Chains in a post pandemic world
(5) 17/08/2020 – Les Echos – Europe Impératif de la souveraineté
(6) 15/09/2020 – European Parliament Think Tank -The CJEU judgment in the Schrems II case
Slide 61
(7) 01/10/2020 – Le Figaro – Thierry Breton : il faut aller très vite sur le numérique
(8) 20/07/2017 – Lawfare – Bejing’s New National Intelligence Law: From Defense of Offense
(9) 05/09/2020 – Diplomatist – Understanding the national intelligence law of China why India banned tik tok
(10) 04/09/2020 – Bloomberg – Huawei barometer shows political pressure on 5G
(11) 20/07/2020 – Reuters - China may retaliate against Nokia, Ericsson if EU bans Huawei
(12) 29/08/2020 – CGTN – Expert: Tiktok’s US sale may entail China approval as new tech export curbs debut
(1) 16/09/2020 – European Commission - President von der Leyen's State of the Union Address: charting the course out of the coronavirus crisis and into the future
(2) 19/07/2020 – Le Parisien – Le télétravail est-il bon pour l’environnement
(3) 18/02/2020 – Raconteur – Is IOT a silver bullet for climate change?
Slide 62
(4) United Nations Sustainable Development Goal (SDG)
(5) 23/07/2020 – The National Business – Mastercard urges banks around the work to issue eco-friendly cards
(6) 07/2020 – CPICARD Group - CPI and AITE environmentally friendly card material issuers
(1) 27/07/2020 – IRJ – Covid-19 best opportunity for decades’ to reshape public transport – study
(2) 01/07/2020 – Usine Nouvelle - Mastria, l'intelligence artificielle d’Alstom au service de la distanciation dans les transports
(3) 10/09/2020 – BBC – Coronavirus: Transport for London Reveals cost of pandemic
Slide 63
(4) 03/09/2020 – Les Echos – Plan de relance: l’éxécutif abat ses cartes
(5) 26/03/2020 – Global Railway Review - COVID-19 and its impact on the European rail supply industry
(6) 31/03/2020 - Metro Magazine – How can public transport be more resilient to pandemics
(1) 24/09/2020 – Railway Gazette - SNCF sets green targets to cut TER emissions
Slide 64
(2) 23/07/2020 - European Commission - Commission launches public consultations on energy taxation and a carbon border adjustment mechanism

Print Version - 2020, December 7th