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Outlook
2005
Update
ISSN: 1655-4809
Publication Stock No. 080205
This Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update was prepared by the staff of the Asian Development Bank, and
the analyses and assessments contained herein do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian
Development Bank or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.
The Asian Development Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and
accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use.
Use of the term “country” does not imply any judgment by the authors or the Asian Development Bank as to the
legal or other status of any territorial entity.
iii
T
he economies of developing Asia and the Pacific (People’s Republic of China). Kevin Chew of the
continued to perform well during the first half Malaysian Institute of Economic Research drafted
of 2005. At a regional level, gross domestic the chapter on Malaysia. Other economists who
product is expected to grow at 6.6% in 2005, marginally contributed inputs for the subregional summaries
up on the 6.5% projected in the Asian Development include: Purnima Rajapakse (Cambodia); Rattanatay
Outlook 2005 (ADO 2005) in April this year. Faster Luanglatbandith (Lao People’s Democratic Republic);
than anticipated growth in the People’s Republic of Nirmal Ganguly (Myanmar); Michaela Prokop
China and a strong showing in South Asia have nudged (Afghanistan); Abid Hussain (Bhutan and Maldives);
the full-year average up. But higher oil prices and other Sungsup Ra, Bipulendu Singh, and Raju Tuladhar
adverse developments, including a downswing in the (Nepal); and Johanna Boestel (Sri Lanka). Ganeshan
global electronics cycle, as well as poor agricultural Wignaraja contributed the subregional summary on
harvests, have caused growth to soften in Southeast Central Asia and Craig Sugden drafted the summary
Asia. Central Asia and two net oil exporters in the on the Pacific. The subregional coordinators were
Pacific have benefited from rising oil incomes. Alain Borghijs and Toan Quoc Nguyen for South
For 2006, this Update retains the ADO 2005 Asia, and William Bikales and Jayant Menon for
projection for growth of 6.6%. Positive elements include Southeast Asia.
the likelihood of a soft landing in the People’s Republic Frank Harrigan, Assistant Chief Economist,
of China, the consolidation of gains in South Asia, and Macroeconomics and Finance Research Division,
an end to some of the temporary factors that restrained assisted by Charissa N. Castillo, coordinated the
growth in Southeast Asia during 2005. Nevertheless, overall production of the publication. Frank Harrigan
the Update cautions that high and still rising oil prices and Cyn-Young Park wrote the chapter on developing
heighten uncertainty about prospects in 2006. Asia and the world and the special chapter in Part 3
The Update features an overview of recent trends on the challenge of higher oil prices. Douglas Brooks,
within the region and sets them in their global Xiaoqin Fan, Jesus Felipe, Akiko Terada-Hagiwara,
context. It also points to risks in the outlook and Duo Qin, and Fan Zhai contributed to and reviewed
suggests appropriate responses to these risks. Recent initial drafts.
economic trends and the outlook are reappraised and Technical and research support was provided by
updated for selected countries in developing Asia. A Edith Laviña, Ludy Pardo, Pilipinas Quising, Nedelyn
major theme of the Update is the challenge presented Ramos, Grace Sipin, and Lea Sumulong.
by high oil prices for countries of the region. This Richard Niebuhr and Anthony Patrick added
is the focus of the special chapter in Part 3. A key substantive inputs in their capacity as economic
message that emerges is that higher oil prices may be editors. Jonathan Aspin did the copy editing and
here for some time, and that countries across devel- Elizabeth Leuterio was responsible for book design
oping Asia need to adjust to this possibility. and typesetting. Zeny Acacio, Pats Baysa, and Maria
The Update was prepared by the staff of the Susan Torres provided administrative and secretarial
Asian Development Bank from the East and Central support. The cooperation of the Printing Unit under
Asia Department, Mekong Department, Pacific the supervision of Raveendranath Rajan contributed
Department, South Asia Department, Southeast significantly to the timely publication of the Update.
Asia Department, the Economics and Research Ann Quon and Tsukasa Maekawa of the Department
Department, as well as the resident missions of of External Relations planned and coordinated the
the Asian Development Bank. The economists dissemination of the Update.
who contributed the country chapters are: Ramesh
Adhikari assisted by Dao Viet Dung, Nguyen Phuong
Ngoc, and Bui Trong Nghia (Viet Nam); Tom
Crouch, Joven Balbosa, and Xuelin Liu (Philippines);
David Green assisted by Ramesh Subramaniam and IFZAL ALI
Amanah Abdulkadir (Indonesia); Mohammad Zahid Chief Economist
Hossain and Rezaul Khan (Bangladesh); Hiranya Economics and Research Department
iv Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
Contents
Statistical appendix 86
Statistical notes and tables 87
Boxes
Figures
Figure 1.1 Real GDP growth rate, United States, Japan, and euro zone, Q1 2003–Q2 2005 11
Figure 1.2 Commodity prices, January 2003–July 2005 13
Figure 1.3 Net capital flows to emerging markets and Asia-Pacific, 2000–2005 13
Figure 1.4 GDP growth, Central Asia, 2004–2006 17
Figure 1.5 GDP growth, East Asia, 2004–2006 19
Figure 1.6 GDP growth, South Asia, 2004–2006 21
Figure 1.7 GDP growth, Southeast Asia, 2004–2006 26
Figure 1.8 GDP growth, the Pacific, 2004–2006 29
Figure 2.1 Trends in oil imports, Bangladesh, FY2000–FY2005 34
Figure 2.2 Growth of exports and imports, and trade balance, People’s Republic of China, 1996–2004 37
Figure 2.3 Oil prices, India, April 2003–July 2005 41
Figure 2.4 Growth of selected GDP components, Indonesia, H1 2004 and H1 2005 45
Figure 2.5 Growth of GDP by expenditure component, Malaysia, H1 2004 and H1 2005 49
Figure 2.6 Exports and imports, Pakistan, FY2003–FY2005 51
Figure 2.7 Revenue and budget balance, Philippines, January–July, 2004 and 2005 55
Figure 2.8 GDP growth and inflation, Thailand, 1999–2006 59
Figure 2.9 GDP and sector growth, Viet Nam, H1 2003, H1 2004, and H1 2005 62
Figure 3.1 Brent futures prices, January 2004–August 2005 67
Figure 3.2 Brent crude oil prices, 1970–2005 68
Figure 3.3 Oil self-sufficiency index, 1980–2003 70
Figure 3.4 Intensity of oil use in energy consumption, 1980–2003 72
Figure 3.5 Energy intensity of GDP, 1980–2003 (‘000 BTU per unit of real GDP) 72
vi Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
Tables
Definitions
The economies discussed in the Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update are classified by major analytic or
geographic groupings. For purposes of the Update, the following apply:
• Association of Southeast Asian Nations comprises Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao
People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam.
ASEAN+3 consists of the above countries in addition to People’s Republic of China, Japan, and Republic
of Korea.
• Developing Asia refers to 42 developing member countries of the Asian Development Bank discussed in
the Update.
• East Asia comprises People’s Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; Mongolia; and
Taipei,China.
• Industrial countries refer to the high-income OECD members defined in World Bank, available: www.
worldbank.org/data/countryclass/classgroups.htm#High-income.
• Southeast Asia comprises Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, Malaysia, Myanmar,
Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam.
• South Asia comprises Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Maldives, Nepal, Pakistan, and
Sri Lanka.
• Central Asia—also referred to as the Central Asian republics—comprises Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.
• The Pacific covers Cook Islands, Fiji Islands, Kiribati, Republic of the Marshall Islands, Federated States
of Micronesia, Nauru, Republic of Palau, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Democratic
Republic of Timor-Leste, Tonga, Tuvalu, and Vanuatu.
• The euro zone consists of Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Ireland, Italy,
Luxembourg, Netherlands, Portugal, and Spain.
• Unless otherwise specified, the symbol “$” and the word “dollar” refer to US dollars.
The Statistical Notes give a detailed explanation of how data are derived.
The Update is based on data available up to 31 August 2005.
Outlook
ASIAN DEVELOPMENT
2005
Update
Part 1
Developing Asia and the world
Developing Asia and the world
Prospects for developing Asia, 2005 and 2006 global economic climate, including continued
strong demand for Asian exports from the United
D
eveloping Asia’s gross domestic product States (US), low inflation, and strong external
(GDP) is now expected to grow at 6.6% payments positions modulated the potentially
in 2005, a very small upward revision on harmful impacts of elevated petroleum prices.
the Asian Development Outlook 2005 (ADO 2005) Gains from underlying structural improvements
projection made in April. Growth in 2006 is also may also have partly offset negative impacts
expected to be about that level. The solid regional coming through from higher oil prices. Drawing
performance masks some important revisions on fiscal resources, governments in some countries
at country and subregional levels. This Update took concerted measures to shield consumers
revises up growth projections for the People’s from these higher prices, and the pass-through of
Republic of China (PRC), which carries a large higher costs to final goods prices was limited.
weight in the regional aggregate, for both 2005 Looking ahead, oil prices are now being driven
and 2006. as much by cost and supply considerations as by
Likewise, the ADO 2005 growth projection demand, and prospects for a reversion of oil prices
for India, another large economy, has been to lower, historical levels appear to be fading.
revised higher for 2006. But slower growth is now Pressures that have been pent up over the past
expected in a number of countries, particularly few years are now beginning to surface. Across
in Southeast Asia, partly as a consequence of developing Asia, import bills are rising sharply.
higher oil prices. A key message of this Update In some countries, inflation is inching up (despite
is that developing Asia must begin to adjust to extensive oil price subsidization). Localized
the possibility that higher oil prices will persist oil shortages are also on the increase. In a few
for some time. Prospects for 2006 and beyond countries, currency reserves are beginning to fall.
are contingent not just on the evolution of oil If oil prices continue rising, there is a risk that an
prices, but also on policy responses to them inflexion point could be reached at which investor
(Box 1.1). The risks associated with the ADO 2005 and consumer confidence, not just in developing
projections are not new, but appear more tilted to Asia but in the global economy, could begin to
the downside in this Update. ebb quickly. In these circumstances, the drag on
Resilience to higher oil prices has been a economic growth would be more pronounced than
notable feature in developing Asia over the past in the recent past. Structurally higher oil prices
few years. Growth averaged 6.7% between 2002 call for policy responses both to facilitate needed
and 2004, despite a doubling in oil prices to $40 macroeconomic adjustments and to promote
per barrel (/bbl). In this period, surging demand longer-run energy efficiency.
helped drive oil prices much higher. A buoyant Against this, several positive developments
Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
should help sustain growth in developing Asia. will help protect fiscal integrity and, over the
Global economic conditions remain largely long run, will promote more efficient energy use.
benign. In particular, the global electronics cycle Finally, higher oil revenues, if managed wisely,
should soon bottom out and more favorable should help accelerate development for net oil-
conditions can be expected in 2006. In South exporting countries in the region.
Asia, the momentum of reform is continuing and
important structural changes are being made that Growth
will help propel growth over the medium term. In In the first half of 2005, developing Asia
the PRC, steps taken by the Government to cool continued to grow at a robust pace. Net oil
investment growth have met with some success, exporters in Central Asia have benefited from
and reforms continue to move forward. The new higher oil prices and new production capacity,
exchange rate regimes introduced in the PRC and and subregional growth in 2005 is now expected
Malaysia on 21 July offer the potential for future to be over 9% (Table 1.1). Growth projections
efficiency gains and greater scope for domestic have also been revised up for East Asia for 2005.
monetary control. In Southeast Asia, particularly Propelled by fast investment growth and surging
in Thailand, an early phasing out of oil subsidies net exports, economic momentum in the PRC was
Developing Asia and the world
Box 1.1 (continued)
is biomass. Although direct income come at a heavy cost in terms of lifted policy interest rates.
transfers are, in principle, more efficiency. It is of note that Asia On the fiscal side, automatic
appealing, they are often difficult has some of the most stringent accommodation of the income
to implement effectively. On the physical pollution controls and impacts of higher prices makes
other hand, price subsidies that standards, yet is the most highly sense but discretionary increases in
are intended for the poor can be polluted region in the world. expenditure, especially those that
captured by other groups when Over the longer run, mecha- cannot easily be reversed, should
there are regulatory and other nisms that rely on price incen- be avoided.
failures. There is, for example, a tives are likely to work best. For For net oil exporters, higher
large gap between the regulated example, across developing Asia, prices provide additional incomes
(i.e., subsidized) price of kerosene excise taxes on oil products fall and a fiscal windfall. A booming
in India and the actual price paid well below international bench- oil sector can, however, be a source
by most poor people. A middle marks (see Box 3.4, Part 3). of some problems and may, for
approach might be to gradually High taxes on fuel are a largely example, cause demand-side infla-
scale back subsidies on kerosene untapped source of fiscal revenues tionary pressures. If higher oil prices
and visibly earmark some portion in developing Asia and, ultimately, are prolonged, net exporters may
of fiscal savings for fast-disbursing will be necessary to promote a also have to contend with an appre-
development projects that directly more diverse energy mix that ciation of the real exchange rate
benefit the poorest. favors cleaner and renewable that can squeeze out traded goods
A number of countries, such energy alternatives. activity. Such exchange rate appre-
as Indonesia and the Philippines, An immediate challenge for ciation for oil producers in Central
have responded to higher oil prices governments is to formulate Asia is already apparent. For net
through a variety of administrative appropriate monetary and fiscal oil-exporting governments, it may
methods that are intended to cut responses to higher oil prices. make sense to consider investing
fuel consumption, including the Where there is a danger of higher part of the proceeds from increased
curtailment of working hours. oil prices triggering more general oil prices in foreign currency assets
Previous experience with such cost-push pressures, the monetary held in a special “oil fund,” which
initiatives suggests that while they authorities should respond by can then help meet the future
may work for a while, they are tightening. The costs of not paying foreign currency costs of devel-
often unsuccessful in the long adequate attention to inflationary opment projects, which have been
term. Administrative controls are threats could be serious. Indonesia, prioritized according to a long-term
difficult to implement and often Philippines, and Thailand have all national investment program.
faster than expected in the first half. Full-year 5 months of 2005, Bangladesh, contrary to
growth of 9.2% is now anticipated, an upward expectations, continued its rapid growth in the
revision of 0.7 percentage point on ADO 2005. garment industry, despite the ending of Multifibre
Elsewhere in East Asia (other than Mongolia), Arrangement quotas. India continues to expand at
slower than anticipated export growth is taking a brisk but manageable pace.
its toll on GDP. For East Asia outside the PRC, The picture over the first half of 2005 has been
projected growth is now 3.8%, a significant less upbeat in Southeast Asia. A variety of factors
downward revision from 4.4% in ADO 2005. conspired to slow growth, including poor harvests
In South Asia, too, growth has surprised on (Philippines and Thailand), a cyclical downturn
the upside. Pakistan, in fiscal year 2005 (which in the global electronics sector (Malaysia and
ended on 30 June 2005), posted its fastest growth Philippines), and higher oil prices (Philippines
in over two decades: an expansive macroeconomic and Thailand). Against this, a successful political
reform program of recent years is beginning transition and an improving investment climate
to bear economic fruit, and improvements are are likely to lift growth in Indonesia in 2005,
now being seen in a variety of indicators of and robust growth in Viet Nam is expected to
social and human development. Over the first continue. Overall, the ADO 2005 projection for
Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
Table 1.1 Selected economic indicators, Higher oil prices through 2006 underlie an
developing Asia, 2004–2006 upward revision of estimated growth for Central
Asia, as it is a net oil exporter, though they will
2004 2005 2006 present challenges for the subregion’s net oil
ADO Update ADO Update importers.
2005 2005
In East Asia, the growth projection for 2006
Gross domestic product (annual % change) is now marginally down on the earlier ADO 2005
Developing Asia 7.4 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 forecast. A small upward revision for the PRC
Central Asia 10.4 8.7 9.2 8.8 9.4 is more than offset by downward revisions for
East Asia 7.8 6.7 6.9 7.0 6.9 the Republic of Korea and Taipei,China. Never-
South Asia 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.2 6.6 theless, both these economies should enjoy faster
Southeast Asia 6.3 5.4 5.0 5.6 5.4 expansion in 2006 than in 2005.
The Pacific 2.7 2.3 2.3 1.4 2.4 The Update projection for Indian growth for
Consumer price index (annual % change) 2006 has been revised up and this lifts the subre-
Developing Asia 4.0 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.3 gional average for South Asia. The more bullish
Central Asia 6.0 6.0 7.4 5.3 6.6 projection reflects strengthening fundamentals,
East Asia 3.3 3.1 2.4 3.0 2.6 important structural changes, and the expected
South Asiaa 6.3 4.9 5.5 3.6 4.1 impact of large infrastructure investments. These
Southeast Asia 4.2 4.3 5.1 3.9 4.9 positive elements will partly offset and possibly
The Pacific 3.6 3.4 3.4 4.0 3.2 outweigh any negative effect from high oil prices.
Current account balance (% of GDP) Decelerating, though solid, growth in Pakistan in
Developing Asia 4.0 2.6 3.4 2.1 2.7
2006 reflects both the transitory nature of some
Central Asia -1.7 -3.2 -1.7 -0.5 0.1
of the factors that spurred the economy in 2005
East Asia 4.7 2.9 4.3 2.4 3.6
(such as the favorable harvest), and the higher
South Asia -0.6 -1.2 -1.5 -1.5 -2.0
base from which 2006’s performance is now being
Southeast Asia 7.1 6.2 5.7 5.3 5.2 measured.
The Pacific -0.7 -0.8 -0.8 -1.5 -1.5 Economic growth in Southeast Asia is
expected to accelerate in 2006, but the pickup
a India reports on a wholesale price index basis.
may be slower than predicted in ADO 2005.
Sources: Asian Development Outlook database; staff estimates.
In Thailand, the temporary factors that held
expansion in check in 2005 (including the
December 2004 tsunami, see Box 1.3 below)
2005 growth in Southeast Asia has been revised should recede and new infrastructure spending
down to 5.0% from 5.4% in April. programs will likely help lift growth. The global
In the Pacific, the picture is mixed. As net oil electronics sector should also bottom out and
exporters, Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste by 2006 begin a new expansionary phase. This
have benefited from higher oil prices, but the other will help lift exports and growth in Malaysia
Pacific countries are totally reliant on imported and the Philippines. In Indonesia, growth is
oil, and use oil intensively in energy production. expected to continue at about its current pace,
The end of quota access under the Multifibre but budgetary and other difficulties present
Arrangement has had a negative effect on the Fiji downside risks.
Islands, the Pacific’s second-largest economy.
Looking to 2006, this Update projects GDP Inflation
growth of 6.6% for developing Asia, unchanged Prospects for inflation vary. In some countries,
from the April projection made in ADO 2005. favorable agricultural harvests, for example in
This stable regional average camouflages changing the PRC and India, have lowered food prices
circumstances at country and subregional levels. and have helped keep inflation in check. But in
It also masks negative oil impacts, as a variety of Bangladesh, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam
positive factors is expected to help pull up growth poor harvests have added to inflation. Higher
from the earlier ADO 2005 projections. oil prices are now percolating through to final
Developing Asia and the world
goods prices. In some countries, this is because PRC, reserves had climbed to $711 billion by end-
of significant reductions in oil subsidies. As profit June 2005. Despite a current account deficit, capital
margins are squeezed by higher oil prices, firms inflows have supported reserves accumulation in
can also be expected to begin to pass on cost India. However, trends in reserves positions are not
increases to customers. In Central Asia, strong uniform and in some countries the accumulation
demand, primed by oil export income, is putting of reserves is tapering off, or reserves are even
pressure on prices. Across developing Asia, to edging down (Box 1.2). The path taken by foreign
minimize the risks of a cost-push inflationary exchange reserves will depend on the extent of
spiral and heightened inflationary expectations, regional currency appreciation, international
a number of central banks have already raised interest rate movements, investor appetite for risk,
interest rates, but in many countries, real policy current account balances, foreign direct investment
rates remain low and in some places negative. inflows, and any measures that countries take
Further monetary tightening can be expected to limit currency speculation. The recent moves
through 2005 and into 2006. In addition, domestic toward more flexible currency regimes by the PRC
pressures for monetary tightening are likely to be and Malaysia have so far resulted in only small
reinforced by rising US dollar interest rates. appreciations of their currencies, but pave the way
for more significant adjustments over the medium
External payments balances term and provide a basis for greater leverage over
Developing Asia’s current account surplus with domestic monetary policy.
the rest of the world is expected to narrow a little
in 2005, and some more in 2006, from the 2004 Investment and saving
level. Current account surpluses are expected to Large current account surpluses and associated
gradually diminish in Southeast Asia, and deficits reserves accumulation in developing Asia have
to widen in South Asia. A substantial increase been taken as evidence of a “savings glut” in
in the cost of oil is being felt in many countries. the region. But, outside the PRC, it has been
In East Asia, a smaller surplus is expected in changes in investment rather than saving that
both 2005 and 2006. However, the PRC’s current have been most closely associated with external
account surplus is likely to widen in 2005 on the surpluses. Following the Asian currency and
basis of strong export growth, before coming banking crisis of 1997, investment rates collapsed
down somewhat in 2006. Central Asia, which is in many countries and still remain well below
a net exporter of oil, is likely to run a smaller their precrisis peaks. Measured against longer-run
current account deficit in 2005 and may move averages, current investment rates are also low.
into surplus in 2006. On the other hand, gross domestic and private
Capital inflows have continued at a brisk pace savings rates do not seem to vary much with
in 2005. Developing Asia remains a favored desti- short-run changes in economic growth, financial
nation for foreign direct investment. The PRC conditions, or the real exchange rate. Savings
still attracts the lion’s share of such investment, behavior appears to be driven more by slowly
but other countries are benefiting, too. Long-term changing structural and institutional factors. In
investment has been encouraged by prospects of the PRC, for example, saving has climbed with
continued strong growth and improvements in long-run falls in fertility and a strengthening
the business investment climate. Portfolio capital precautionary motive linked to the transition
inflows have also been strong in 2005, though from state to market provision of jobs and social
lending by private creditors has shrunk. Expec- services. In helping redress external imbalances,
tations of an appreciation of regional currencies a challenge for many countries remains to boost
buoyed short-term inflows in the first half of investment rates from their current low levels.
2005, and these inflows may continue for the rest In India, Malaysia, Pakistan, and Thailand, as
of the year. well as in some other countries, measures are now
A combination of current and capital account in place to scale up infrastructure investment.
surpluses will feed further accumulation of These programs have the potential to boost
currency reserves in 2005 and through 2006. In the productivity growth over the medium term and
Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
Box 1.2 (continued)
Box figure 3 Factors affecting reserves, India, Republic of Box figure 4 Developing Asia’s share in the US
Korea, and Taipei,China (as a group), 1995–2004 merchandise trade deficit, 1995–June 2005
$ billion %
100 60
80 50
60 40
40 30
20
20
0
10
-20
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
Current account Net non-FDI plus E&O
East Asia Southeast Asia The Pacific (June)
Net FDI Reserves accumulation
South Asia Central Asia
FDI = foreign direct investment, E&O = errors and omissions.
Source: US Census Bureau, downloaded 29 August 2005,
Source: CEIC Data Company Ltd.
available: www.census.gov.
10 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
to close gaps on unmet infrastructure needs. and 2006. Though lower than last year’s 3.5%,
However, governments will need to take care to this rate is slightly better than the past 5 years’
ensure that projects deliver durable benefits and average of 2.4%. For developing Asia, interna-
can be financed at reasonable cost. Steps that are tional trade and financial conditions remain
being taken across the region to strengthen the favorable. The volume of world trade is expected
business investment climate and to promote a to grow robustly, though not as fast as last year.
more efficient and safer financial system should Despite rising short-term US dollar interest rates,
help reduce debt, contain risks, and lift corporate the region continues to attract capital inflows
profits. These measures should also eventually and pays premiums that are well below historical
pave the way for stronger investment growth. norms on funds raised in international markets.
Oil prices have risen substantially since the
Prospects for the world economy publication of ADO 2005 in April this year. The
prices of benchmark Brent crude have already
A gradual slowdown in growth is now under way averaged $53/bbl in 2005 through 31 August.
in the major industrial economies, following last Prices continue to ratchet up on news of possible
year’s rapid expansion. Growth has moderated disruptions to supply. Even before Hurricane
due to rising oil and commodity prices, less Katrina, tightness in the oil market was expected
accommodative macroeconomic policies, and, to continue through 2006, and possibly beyond
in some countries, an end to rapid house price (see Part 3).
inflation. The baseline assumptions in this Update The country chapters for this Update (in
for growth in the industrial countries are little Part 2) were developed on a baseline assumption
changed from those of ADO 2005 (Table 1.2). for oil prices of about $53/bbl in 2005 and $55 in
However, based on data for the first half of the 2006. But events have moved quickly and recent
year, Japan is now expected to experience some rises suggest that even these estimates may be
improvement and the euro zone some further too low and that oil prices could be sustained at
slowing (Figure 1.1). higher levels. In real terms, however, oil prices are
At an aggregate level, growth prospects for still some way off their peak levels. In first-half
industrial countries remain reasonably healthy, 2005 inflation-adjusted prices, monthly oil prices
with projected expansion of 2.5% in both 2005 peaked at $107/bbl in November 1979. The yearly
Note: Staff projections are based on the Oxford Economic Forecasting World Macroeconomic Model.
Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, available: www.bea.gov/bea, downloaded 1 September 2005;
Economic and Social Research Institute of Japan, available: http://www.esri.cao.go.jp, downloaded 12 August 2005; Eurostat, available:
http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int, downloaded 1 September 2005; World Bank Prospects for the World Economy, available: http://web.
worldbank.org; World Bank Commodity Price Data, available: http://web.worldbank.org; US Federal Reserve, available: www.federalreserve.
gov/releases/H15/data.htm; staff estimates.
Developing Asia and the world 11
Figure 1.1 Real GDP growth rate, United States, profits, imports will likely gain strength again,
Japan, and euro zone, Q1 2003–Q2 2005 eliminating the net contribution of the external
%, sector. Higher oil prices will also hoist the US
seasonally adjusted import bill.
annualized rate Strong consumer spending, reflecting high
8 consumer confidence and buoyancy in the
housing market, has been a major factor in the
6
current expansion. But household finances are
4 stretched and the household debt-service burden
has soared to record highs. Although mortgage
2
rates remain low, continued tightening by the
0 Federal Reserve—in a context of a return to a
-2
neutral policy stance amid heightened inflation
concerns—may now continue into 2006. This may
-4 eventually show up in higher longer-term interest
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2003 2004 2005 rates and housing finance charges. An end to
United States Japan Euro zone
house price asset inflation would tell on private
consumption and weaken growth. In such an
Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, available: http://www.bea.gov, downloaded environment, investment demand would probably
1 September 2005; Economic and Social Research Institute feel the downdraft, too.
of Japan, available: www.esri.cao.go.jp, downloaded In summary, provided that oil prices do not
12 August 2005; Eurostat, available: http://epp.eurostat.cec.
eu.int, downloaded 1 September 2005. jump further and the housing market cools gently,
the overall outlook is mildly positive for the US
economy. This Update’s baseline GDP projection
average price for 1979 was $83/bbl. Even if oil is 3.6% for 2005. A smaller fiscal stimulus, tighter
prices continue to climb, a replay of earlier crises monetary conditions, and a more sedate housing
is unlikely, primarily because the global economy market are likely to mean that growth will edge
is now considerably more oil efficient than before closer toward its long-term trend rate of 3.3%
and is better able to cope with inflationary in 2006. High oil prices could also help quell
threats. But if oil prices continue to rise and consumer spending.
persist at a level considerably above the baseline It is too early to estimate the likely impacts
levels assumed in this Update, the outlook for of Hurricane Katrina. While the devastation and
growth of the international economy would be loss of lives were extreme, earlier experiences with
downgraded, with consequent knock-on effects for natural disasters suggest that long-lasting effects
developing Asia. on overall US growth are likely to be small, but
oil supply disruptions could cause further spikes
United States in prices and weaken confidence.
Brisk growth continues on the back of strong
private consumption and a booming housing Japan
market. In the first half of 2005, growth was Following a mild recession in 2004, GDP grew
3.6%, measured year on year (Table 1.3). Under- by 1.3% (year on year) in the first half of the
pinning the broad-based economic expansion, year (Table 1.3). Domestic demand has firmed
the trade balance, which was a major drag on up on both household and corporate fronts.
growth in the second half of 2004, also improved. Household income has expanded gradually and
Exports surged by 13.2% in the second quarter, the unemployment rate has fallen to its lowest
at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate, building level since August 1998. This has helped support
on a 7.5% increase in the first. Growth of import private consumption, which rose by 1.3% (year
demand slumped, partly related to a large on year) in the first half. Business investment
destocking of inventories. If business investment also rebounded, by 4.6% on the same period of
continues to pick up, helped by healthy corporate the previous year. Capital spending may grow
12 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
Sources: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, available: http://www.bea.gov, downloaded 1 September 2005;
Economic and Social Research Institute of Japan, available: http://www.esri.cao.go.jp, downloaded 12 August 2005; Eurostat, available:
http://epp.eurostat.cec.eu.int, downloaded 1 September 2005.
further if activity in the electronics sector recovers its potential rate. Although the impact of higher
and this should encourage further labor hiring. oil prices will also be felt in the euro zone, early
Despite firm growth in the PRC and the US, signs of cyclical recovery are now apparent in
Japan’s major trading partners, continued export some economies, including Italy and the Neth-
weakness has partly offset these positive devel- erlands. Economic performance across the zone
opments. However, renewed inventory building remains uneven making more difficult the task
in the second part of the year in the PRC and US of monetary management. The European Central
may support a recovery in exports in the latter Bank seems likely to maintain its broadly neutral
half of this year. Exports would also benefit from stance and keep its key policy rate at 2.0% for
a pickup in the electronics cycle. the remainder of the year. Neither is there much
Given the better outlook for domestic demand room for fiscal maneuver, due to continuing fiscal
and recovering exports, GDP is expected to grow deficits that are over the Maastricht limits, and to
at 1.6% in 2005. However, long-term potential large public debt and pension burdens.
growth is limited by Japan’s aging population and
lingering structural weaknesses. With its high World trade and commodity prices
level of energy efficiency, Japan may not be as Robust expansion in world trade continued
badly affected as other regional economies by high into the first half of 2005, though with some
oil prices. pullback from the vigorous expansion of 2004.
The downswing in the production cycle of high-
Euro zone technology industries has negatively affected
The euro zone economy grew by 1.2% (year on industrial production and world trade. Recent
year) in the first half of 2005 (Table 1.3). Although monthly data on semiconductor orders, semicon-
the economy is recovering from a cyclical low ductor sales, and chip prices have been volatile,
in the last quarter of 2004, the growth outlook first improving and then falling back toward the
remains bleak, as persistently high unemployment middle of the year. But the inventory cycle in elec-
continues to erode consumer confidence and tronics is short, and other leading indicators, such
consumption demand. Following Germany, where as equity prices for semiconductor manufacturers,
domestic demand had already softened, France suggest that recovery may come soon. Demand
has seen consumer strength beginning to seep prospects for next year are also brightening,
away, with household consumption contracting by as global demand for information-technology
1.0% (on a seasonally adjusted annualized basis) products, such as wireless communications and
in the second quarter, down from 3.2% growth in consumer electronics products, gradually gains
the previous 3 months. ground, particularly in the US.
Given weakening export growth and slack After the run-up in the past couple of years,
domestic demand, growth in euro zone GDP prices of nonenergy commodities stabilized in the
is projected to slow to 1.3% in 2005. In 2006, first half of 2005 (Figure 1.2). This was a result of
growth is expected to recover to 1.8%, closer to the moderating global demand and easier supply
Developing Asia and the world 13
conditions. The prices of soft commodities (agri- Figure 1.3 Net capital flows to emerging markets and
cultural food and beverages) continued to fall on Asia-Pacific, 2000–2005
favorable harvests and increased supply. Prices of $ billion
metals and minerals, though marginally declining 350
in recent months, are expected to remain robust
300
on the back of firm growth in Asia. Overall,
nonenergy commodity prices are expected to 250
66%,
register a modest gain of about 2–3%, before 200
direct
investment
expanded supply and increased stocks peg back
150
prices in 2006. Rising US dollar interest rates
34%,
could also impact adversely on commodity prices. 100 portfolio
investment
50
Emerging market financial developments
0
Rising short-term US interest rates have barely
registered in emerging financial markets. -50
Emerging markets, particularly Asian equity and -100
bond markets, are expected to continue to benefit 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
from capital inflows in 2005 (Figure 1.3). After Emerging markets Asia-Pacific
a brief retreat in mid-March and April, capital Private equity
Private credit
flows resumed by midyear, with equity portfolio Official lending
investment showing particular strength. With low
long-term US interest rates, credit spreads have Note: Emerging markets and Asia-Pacific follow the definition
of the Institute of International Finance, Inc., available: http://
also begun to narrow again. www.iif.com/emr/coverage.quagga.
Emerging markets’ prospects for external Source: “Capital Flows to Emerging Market Economies,” various
financing conditions remain broadly favorable in issues, Institute of International Finance, Inc., available: http://
www.iif.com.
2005, given their robust economic growth and
favorable macroeconomic conditions, but if long-
term dollar rates begin to climb, as seems likely,
these markets are likely to face more difficult
Figure 1.2 Commodity prices, circumstances moving through 2006.
January 2003–July 2005
Index, Index,
Risks
1990=100 1990=100
150 260 The relevance of the global and regional risks
140 240 identified in ADO 2005 in April are undi-
130 220 minished. Indeed, the assessment of this Update
120 200 is that the overall outlook for developing Asia is
110 180 more uncertain than earlier in the year, with some
100 160 risks now being more accentuated. In particular,
90 140
rising oil prices and the possible ramifications of
80 120
increasing US interest rates on the region now
70 100
Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul merit closer attention. Other risks could also
2003 2004 2005 flare up. There is still little indication that global
Nonenergy commodities (left scale) payments imbalances are receding. At a domestic
Agriculture (left scale) level, structural vulnerabilities are still present
Metals and minerals (left scale)
Energy (right scale)
in many countries in the region. Finally, there
are risks to the outlook that are inherently more
Source: World Bank Commodity Price Data (Pink Sheets),
various issues, available: http://web.worldbank.org, difficult to assess, and to respond to. For example,
downloaded 4 August 2005. previous ADOs have drawn attention to the
potentially devastating consequences of the spread
14 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
of virulent diseases. Terrorist attacks also have the sizable “aftershock” as negative effects are trans-
potential to seriously disrupt economic prospects. mitted from major industrial trading partners.
However, even in these difficult circumstances,
Oil prices significant and long-lasting reversals would be
Oil prices breached $70/bbl on 29 August unlikely. Although developing Asia’s energy
reflecting concerns about Hurricane Katrina’s consumption remains highly oil intensive, energy
impact on petroleum supplies from the Gulf consumption per unit of GDP has fallen steadily
of Mexico. In nominal terms, oil prices in late over the past 25 years. In most countries, fiscal
August are now over three times as high as and foreign exchange positions are also stronger,
they were in 2002 and are about 75% above and central banks would move quickly to avert
ADO 2005’s projection for average prices in 2005 the threat of a cost-push inflationary spiral.
and 2006. Oil prices sustained at current levels For net oil exporters, high oil prices provide
over a protracted period would have the potential valuable foreign exchange resources that, if wisely
to cut developing Asia’s growth and would pose managed, can be used to expand and accelerate
challenges for economic management (Part 3). development opportunities. The risk for these
The longer oil prices remain elevated, the more countries is that the oil bonus is not managed
likely it becomes that consumers and producers prudently and, instead, encourages unsustainable
will adjust their spending plans in anticipation consumption or wasteful investment. Net oil
of a lasting reduction in their potential income exporters must also take care to ensure that
(relative to a situation of lower oil prices). activity in the non-oil, traded goods sector is not
As developing Asia is a large net oil importer, smothered either by domestic cost pressures, or by
sustained high oil prices would inevitably restrain excessive appreciation of the real exchange rate.
output growth. Asia’s major industrial trading
partners would also suffer, amplifying direct United States interest rates
negative effects through indirect trade channels. For a number of years, strong demand in the
But the magnitude, incidence, and timing of US economy, particularly private consumption
these effects are not easy to predict. Impacts can demand, has been critical in sustaining rapid
only be detected indirectly—other changes are expansion of developing Asia’s exports which,
occurring at the same time—and they depend in turn, have primed the region’s growth.
both on underlying structural characteristics of Consumption demand in the US has been
an economy and induced policy responses. The supported by historically low interest rates, tax
risks posed by sustained prices of $70/bbl are cuts, and a booming housing market that has
significant, but with appropriate policy responses allowed households to cash in some of the equity
should be contained in size and duration. But at a value of their property to support spending.
country level pressure points and room for policy Although the outlook for US growth remains
maneuver will vary depending on underlying generally bright, uncertainties loom. The
structure, financial strength, and policy cred- Federal Reserve now looks likely to respond to
ibility. Policy inertia and delays in adjusting to ongoing inflationary pressures by continuing
higher prices would certainly raise costs. to tighten more and over a longer period than
If real oil prices continue to ramp up and were had been expected by markets in April. The US
to approach levels of over $80/bbl—the highest housing market boom also looks increasingly
annual average price ever attained was $83/bbl unsustainable and is raising concern over
(in first-half 2005 prices) in 1979—consumer and mounting household debt, and associated financial
investor confidence could begin to ebb quickly, risks. Even a “soft landing”, in which prices
and the consequences for the global economy and stabilize rather than fall, removes the stimulus
for developing Asia would be more severe. Infla- that capital gains give to consumption. Consumer
tionary impacts would be felt first, but negative confidence is also weighed down by rapidly
output effects would quickly follow. Asia would escalating gasoline prices and may be adversely
not only have to contend with the direct impacts affected by disruptions to supply caused by
on costs and demands but would also feel a Hurricane Katrina. For many households, sharp
Developing Asia and the world 15
price increases will create budgetary difficulties adjustments might be. The risk is that financial
as they have little or no saving and are already markets, which have so far accommodated
highly indebted. widening imbalances, could yet become impatient
Taken together, these factors cast a shadow and force abrupt and painful changes.
over prospects for continued robust growth of One possible, but still unlikely, scenario is
US consumption and, by extension, demand for that there is a sudden dip in international investor
Asia’s exports. demand for US dollar assets. This would likely
In addition to their demand effects, rising US precipitate a sharp fall in the value of the US
interest rates could spell an end to the unusually dollar, requiring an increase in US interest rates
favorable financing conditions that borrowers in to combat attendant inflationary pressures. But if
Asia, and other emerging markets, have enjoyed. sharp monetary tightening and an effort to shift
In 2005, emerging market debt has traded at very out of a wide class of US dollar assets were to spill
low spreads to historical norms. If long-term rates over into US house prices, this could smother US
were to rise, countries with high levels of external consumption demand and economic growth. With
debt would, in particular, face increasing debt anemic growth in both Japan and the euro zone,
servicing burdens and would have their scope such a turn of events would have serious reper-
for fiscal maneuver constrained. The prospect of cussions for growth prospects in developing Asia.
capital outflows in search of higher, safer yields Other developments that could trigger
could also put pressure on some Asian currencies disorderly and costly adjustments would include
and, at a time of rising oil costs, aggravate infla- an escalation of trade sanctions. These would
tionary pressures. be to the detriment of global consumers and
would limit scope for beneficial specialization of
Global payments imbalances production across countries.
Divergent growth, savings, and investment across
the major regions of the world are unlikely to Structural reforms
correct themselves quickly. There is general Concerted reform efforts are continuing in many
agreement that the resolution of these imbalances countries in developing Asia, and economic
will require coordinated global actions. In Asia, structures are being strengthened. Despite this,
domestic demand needs to play a larger role in weaknesses remain, with the sources of vulner-
supporting growth. Outside the PRC, investment ability varying across countries.
demand is still anemic. In the PRC, consumption In South Asia, large fiscal deficits and diffi-
demand remains subdued. Responses are needed culties in mobilizing revenues may constrain
across a broad front to ensure that future growth the public investments that will be needed to
in developing Asia is better balanced in terms of support broad-based advances in productivity and
its domestic and external components. If these growth. In the PRC, the investment boom has
adjustments are not made, the efficiency costs, and been highly concentrated and has cloaked inef-
the risks to future growth, could be high. ficiencies. If excess capacity and falling profits cut
There is also general agreement that the into investment demand, this would remove an
resolution of imbalances would be aided by a fall important driver of growth, and would weaken
in the real value of the US dollar. Indeed, such a fragile financial system. In Southeast Asia, a
a fall is needed to help persuade international variety of indicators suggests that financial sectors
investors to digest an increasing supply of dollar are now much stronger than they were at the
assets, and to encourage a shift of resources time of the Asian crisis in 1997. But there is no
toward the traded goods sector in the US, and room for complacency. Some countries still have
out of the traded goods sector of other countries. high debt levels and although bank balance sheets
But views vary about the extent of the required have strengthened considerably, asset quality
depreciation and its timing, and about whether remains vulnerable to changes in interest rates
adjustments are likely to be smooth or abrupt. The and economic buoyancy. There remains scope
longer the real sector has to adjust, the smaller for improving banking regulation and super-
the required depreciation and the smoother vision and, over the longer run, the deepening
16 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
of domestic bond markets will be important in hydrocarbon exporters and those that are not. The
promoting the efficiency and safety of domestic former group will perform better than the latter.
financial systems. Hence, Azerbaijan is projected to grow at 17.0%
in 2005, Kazakhstan at 9.0%, and Turkmenistan
Avian flu at 10.0%. A combination of higher oil and gas
A final risk relates to health. Experts continue prices, buoyant international energy demand,
to warn of the possibility that some virulent inflows of FDI, and investments in modern infra-
diseases, particularly avian flu, could become structure has propelled rapid growth in these
endemic among humans. The possibility of the three countries. Growth there will be largely
virus being transmitted from human to human limited to the oil and gas sectors and to related
is still regarded as small, but nonetheless suffi- sectors such as hotels, catering, and transport and
ciently large to warrant concerted preventive communications.
measures. In 2003, severe acute respiratory The latter group—with lower per capita
syndrome (SARS) is estimated to have cost the incomes—will turn in a less impressive
region about $18 billion in lost income, or the performance, with growth in Tajikistan projected
equivalent of 0.6% of regional GDP (ADO 2003 at 8%, Uzbekistan at 5% and in the Kyrgyz
Update). In Hong Kong, China it has been Republic at 3%. Political unrest resulted in the
estimated that SARS cut growth by 2.6 percentage election of a new president by a strong majority
points. The sizable impacts occurred despite quick in the Kyrgyz Republic; however, continuing
containment and the low incidence of SARS in economic uncertainty and weakness in gold
the general population. By contrast, if avian flu production in the first half of the year is now
were to pass easily from person to person, it expected to take growth below the 5% projected
might afflict millions, if not hundreds of millions, in ADO 2005. Favorable prices for non-oil export
of people. commodities (such as cotton, gold, aluminum,
Besides the direct costs of loss of life and and other metals), expansion in the services
treatment of the sick, productivity would be sector, and economic reforms underlie growth in
seriously affected. Even healthy workers would this group of CARs.
likely stay at home, and global supply chains The medium-term outlook for the CARs as
would be seriously disrupted. Consumer a whole is positive and points to strong GDP
sentiment and investment confidence would growth of 9.4% in 2006. This is above the forecast
nosedive as would asset and commodity prices. given in ADO 2005. In response to higher oil
The associated costs would be colossal and their and gas prices as well as to increased production,
incidence would be felt globally. By comparison, the oil and gas exporting CARs will continue to
the costs of providing antiviral drugs, inoculating witness rapid GDP growth, but likely with notable
fowl, and educating farmers about the risks and differences in growth trajectories.
compensating them for losses, estimated at about A sharp acceleration in growth in Azerbaijan
$100 million, appear modest. to 22.0% in 2006 is expected, related to the
phasing-in of production from investments in its
Subregional trends and prospects oil and gas fields and pipeline facilities as well
as a booming construction sector. The country’s
Central Asia economic expansion will be supported by
The six Central Asian republics (CARs) will continued large increases in FDI into the hydro-
continue in 2005 with the rapid economic growth carbon sector.
of recent years, on the basis of developments to Kazakhstan, the largest economy in the
midyear. Economic growth in the CARs as a region, will see a mild softening of growth to 8.5%
group is estimated at 9.2% in 2005 (Figure 1.4), in 2006 in response to additional oil production
which is above the 8.7% projected in ADO 2005. building on a larger base and to real exchange rate
Emphasizing the importance of an expanding appreciation damping manufacturing expansion.
oil and gas sector, the pattern of growth divides The Government will continue actively fostering
the countries into two sets—those that are major economic diversification under the Innovative
Developing Asia and the world 17
Figure 1.4 GDP growth, Central Asia, 2004–2006 the new administration and the continuation of
a pro-growth economic program that has been
%
supported by increased foreign aid in recent years.
Central Asia In Uzbekistan, the prospects are for a small
improvement in growth to 6.0% in 2006. Growth
Azerbaijan
will be supported by increased investment from
the PRC in the country’s natural gas sector and
the expected implementation of measures to
Kazakhstan
revitalize the private sector (including simplified
taxation, stronger legal protection, and improved
Kyrgyz Republic access to industrial finance through banking
sector liberalization). In an economic envi-
Tajikistan ronment of stringent state control and regulation,
however, it will take time for these measures
to feed through into a private sector response.
Turkmenistan
Heightened political tensions could be a risk to
the economic outlook.
Uzbekistan Tajikistan is projected to see a slowdown in
growth to 7.0% in 2006. This is explained by a
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 tapering off of growth due to capacity limits on
2004 2005 2006 the expansion in the country’s two main economic
Sources: Asian Development Outlook database; staff estimates. activities (export of cotton and aluminum
production), a large farm debt overhang in the
cotton sector, and a weak response from the
Industrial Development Strategy. In 2006 it plans nascent private sector.
to allocate more resources to the development of Inflation in the six CARs will increase in 2005
industrial clusters in food, textiles, machinery, from both the actual level in 2004 (6.0%) and the
metallurgy, construction materials, and tourism. ADO 2005 projected level, to 7.4%. Azerbaijan
Furthermore, it has approved an expansionary will experience the highest rate at 10.0% and
medium-term fiscal policy for 2006–2008 in the Kyrgyz Republic the lowest of 4.6%. The
which the general budget deficit target (excluding remaining four CARs will see inflation of around
the National Fund which saves part of oil 7.0%. Nevertheless, with the possible exception
revenues) has been raised to nearly 2% of GDP. of Azerbaijan, inflation in the CARs in 2005
Risks for these two countries include will remain within manageable levels. In the oil
continuing political unrest in Azerbaijan and and gas exporting economies, higher inflation is
possible disruptions in Kazakhstan in the symptomatic of a tendency for overheating in the
lead-up to an expected presidential election in wake of resource windfalls, and, together with
December 2005. upward pressures on the nominal exchange rate,
In Turkmenistan, GDP growth is projected has resulted in appreciation of the real exchange
to moderate to 7.0% in 2006. This large natural rate in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan. This is likely
gas producer’s economic outlook is closely linked to erode the price competitiveness of domestic
to long-term export contracts with the Russian producers in both these economies, but partic-
Federation and Ukraine and to the need for ularly in Azerbaijan, which has the more fragile
structural reforms to stimulate private sector manufacturing base. These are classic early signs
development. of “Dutch disease” that seems to characterize
The other three CARs will see more many natural resource-based economies and is a
moderate growth in 2006. The outlook for challenge to their policy makers.
the Kyrgyz Republic is for a mild economic Inflationary pressures in the CARs are also
recovery (projected growth at 5.0%) with the partly associated with expansion in investment
expected maintenance of political stability by and consumer demand. Cost-push impulses
18 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
arising from strong growth in public sector wages, Current account deficits are expected to
and in prices of producer goods and utilities have continue in the Kyrgyz Republic and Tajikistan,
also played a role. Public sector wage increases reflecting a combination of moderate performance
have been significant in the hydrocarbon- in commodity exports and sustained demand for
exporting CARs—Kazakhstan, for instance, imports. Imports will continue to be buttressed
awarded a 32% public sector wage increase in July by development assistance and by some increase
2005. In the non-oil CARS, wage increases have in FDI as the countries implement economic and
also been sizable but have often been made in the structural reform programs that are designed to
context of efforts to improve productivity in the raise growth rates and reduce poverty.
public sector.
Over time, however, inflationary pressures in East Asia
the CARs are expected to ease as the authorities The economies of East Asia are projected to grow
exert greater control over the money supply and, in aggregate by 6.9% in 2005 (Figure 1.5), in line
more important, over expectations for public with their strong average expansion rate of the
sector wages. Aggregate inflation is expected to past 5 years. This will represent a slowdown of
fall to 6.6% in 2006 and the variation between the nearly 1 percentage point from the high growth
individual countries is expected to narrow, though rate of 2004. All five economies are expected to
the oil and gas exporters will have somewhat decelerate.
higher inflation than the other three countries. The overall 2005 projection for East Asia in
The current account deficit of four of the this Update is little changed from ADO 2005, but
CARs (as no projections are made for Turk- this hides some significant revisions within the
menistan and Uzbekistan) will continue in 2005 subregion: the growth forecast for the PRC, by far
but at an estimated 1.7% of GDP, substantially less the largest economy, is revised up, while forecasts
than the ADO 2005 projection of a 3.2% deficit for Hong Kong, China; Republic of Korea; and
for these four countries. This revision is largely Taipei,China are lowered. The estimate for
due to Kazakhstan, with an estimated current Mongolia is unchanged from ADO 2005.
account surplus increased from 1.0% to 3.0% of In 2006, subregional growth is projected to
GDP in 2005. Higher oil, gas, and commodity remain at around the 2005 level. The PRC will
prices, along with increased production, have slow a little (by an estimated 0.4 percentage point)
led to export earnings in the CARs exceeding as will Hong Kong, China and Mongolia. Korea’s
expectations, but they have been offset by higher economy is expected to rebound (by 1 percentage
consumer and capital goods imports and larger point), as is Taipei,China’s.
deficits on invisibles (oil sector payments for This year in the PRC, a surge in net exports
services, profit outflows, and labor remittances). and—despite government efforts—stubbornly high
The current account deficit in Azerbaijan has been growth in investment resulted in stronger than
covered by foreign investment, and in the other expected 9.5% growth in the first half, the same
CARs by foreign aid. rapid pace recorded in the whole of 2004. Exports
The current account position for the four continued to power ahead, by 32% in the first
CARs as a whole is expected to improve in the 7 months of the year, a rate much stronger than
medium term with their deficit projected to in other subregional economies. One reason was
disappear in 2006 and perhaps even turn into a surge in textile exports in the first quarter, after
a larger surplus in 2007. Underpinning this the abolition of textile quotas under the Multifibre
improvement are expectations of significant Arrangement. Another was the continued buildup
increases in oil exports from Azerbaijan and of highly competitive manufacturing capacity
Kazakhstan. There are also likely to be some in the PRC, supported by strong foreign and
increases in manufactured exports (e.g., metal domestic investment and by the PRC’s 2001 entry
products and chemicals) from Kazakhstan into the World Trade Organization.
as cluster development under the Innovative In addition, an excess supply of some products
Industrial Development Strategy begins to take on the domestic market, such as steel, was diverted
effect. abroad, which further raised exports. Finally,
Developing Asia and the world 19
Figure 1.5 GDP growth, East Asia, 2004–2006 Another strut for growth was investment in
fixed assets. The Government has been taking
%
steps since September 2003 to rein in investment
East Asia in industries it considered to be overheated, such
as steel, automobiles, and real estate. This effort
started to have an impact in the first half of 2005.
China, People's Rep. of
However, investment still rose by more than 25%,
down just 3 percentage points from a year earlier.
Hong Kong, China In the second half, investment is expected to slow
further as administrative steps gain traction.
Korea, Rep. of Tighter credit and moderation in profit growth
will also curb investment appetites.
Reflecting the strong performance in the first
Mongolia half, the PRC GDP growth forecast is upgraded to
9.2%, from 8.5% in ADO 2005. In 2006, growth is
Taipei,China expected to soften to a still-robust 8.8%, a touch
higher than forecast in ADO 2005. Investment
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 expansion will likely ease further on moderate
2004 2005 2006 credit expansion and deteriorating profitability.
External demand will ease as global trade
Sources: Asian Development Outlook database; staff estimates.
growth slows and as a result of recent steps to
constrain exports of energy-intensive products,
such as aluminum and steel. The decision in July
price controls on domestic energy led to a rise in to manage the exchange rate based on market
exports of products such as gasoline and naphtha forces, with reference to a basket of currencies,
in the first half as oil companies sought the much and to revalue the yuan by 2.1% against the US
higher prices paid for energy outside the PRC. dollar could have a moderating effect on export
Import growth, in contrast, slowed to 14% growth and on investment in export industries. It
in the first 7 months, from about 35% over the should also improve the terms of trade and help
previous 2 years. The imports that were most constrain any inflationary pressures.
affected included agricultural and mineral This year’s strong trade performance has led to
products, base metals, machinery, and motor an increase in the forecast for the PRC’s current
vehicles. A slight slowdown in investment in account surplus to 4.7% of GDP in 2005 and 3.6%
fixed assets was behind the deceleration in some in 2006. Inflationary pressures in the PRC, and
imports, such as machinery. Other reasons for indeed in most of East Asia, have been lower than
reduced imports included a better domestic expected this year. A better harvest and excess
harvest and a drawdown on oil inventories. The capacity of many consumer products explain the
buildup in manufacturing capacity also appears PRC’s forecast 2.5% inflation rate for all of 2005,
to have contributed, as the economy now has the down more than a percentage point from 2004
capacity to make products, in industries such as and lower than expected previously. The forecast
electronics, that it previously imported. Expec- for 2006 is for a similar inflation rate.
tations of a currency appreciation also played a Korea, the second-largest economy in East
role, as some companies brought forward exports Asia, posted growth of 3.0% in the first half of
and delayed imports. 2005, well below the 4.6% rate for the whole of
The result of these diverging trends—rising 2004. Its export growth rate in US dollars fell
exports and decelerating imports—was a record to 11%, from 38% in the year-earlier half. As a
first-half trade surplus of nearly $40 billion. major producer of electronic products, Korea has
Increasing concern among industrial trading followed the global electronics cycle, benefiting
partners led to agreements to limit PRC textile from a strong upswing in 2004, then suffering
exports. from the downswing in the first half of 2005. The
20 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
drop in Korea’s export growth also reflects to growth fell sharply, too, although high oil prices
some degree the slowdown in the PRC’s imports, tempered that decline to 11%. The trade surplus
because the PRC buys capital equipment, steel, dwindled in the first half and the authorities
and other industrial materials from Korea. have warned that the full-year surplus could be
The growth rate of imports into Korea slowed the lowest since 1981. Net exports will barely
in the first half, to 15% from 26% a year earlier. contribute to GDP growth.
(This slowdown would have been sharper except As in Korea, private consumption has
for higher prices paid for imported oil and picked up a little, supported by a recovery in the
other energy.) The trade surplus fell by 18% to property market, rising incomes, and employment
$12.5 billion and the contribution of net exports to growth. Private investment is expected to slow
GDP growth is expected to decline in the full year. a little during the year but public investment in
Domestic demand in Korea has picked up infrastructure is forecast to increase. The growth
from the prolonged slump in consumption caused forecast for 2005 is lowered by a half percentage
by the 2003 credit card crisis, when household point to 3.7%, which is just above the economy’s
debt exceeded 70% of GDP and about 8% of 5-year average. For 2006, growth is expected to
the population were delinquent on credit card pick up by 0.4 percentage point to 4.1%, slightly
payments. By mid-2005, private consumption had below that predicted in ADO 2005.
increased consecutively in 4 quarters. However, Taipei,China’s current account surplus is
corporate investment remained weak because of seen easing to 4.8% of GDP in 2005 and 4.6% in
the slowdown in exports, high global oil prices, 2006, lower than previously expected, as high oil
and a stronger local currency. This Update lowers prices bring down the trade surplus. Inflation is
the 2005 forecast growth rate for Korea by a half likely to stay at around 1.6%, constrained by more
percentage point to 3.6%, nearly 2 percentage competition in the economy since it joined the
points below the average for the past 5 years. World Trade Organization, increases in the official
In 2006, Korea’s growth rate is projected to discount rate this year, and an expected slight
rebound by 1 percentage point to 4.6%, influenced appreciation of the currency.
by the expected upturn in the global electronics Hong Kong, China grew by 6.5% in the first
cycle. Domestic demand will continue to recover, half of 2005, compared with 8.1% in all of 2004.
but at a modest pace. Lackluster job creation and Its export growth eased to 12% from about
planned new taxes will weigh on consumption 15% in the year-earlier period. This compara-
growth, and new property regulations and taxes tively stronger export result was attributed to
are likely to damp investment in housing. the economy’s close integration with the rapidly
Korea’s current account surplus is seen developing Pearl River Delta, and to strong
declining to 2.4% of GDP this year and further growth in reexports originating in the mainland.
to 2.2% next year—both sharper declines than Growth of imports slowed to 9% in the first half
previously expected—because of the effect of from 19% a year earlier, and the trade deficit
higher oil import costs and expected moderate narrowed. Services exports, a major earner for the
export growth. Inflation is likely to be around 3% economy, grew strongly. Net exports are expected
this year and next. to contribute to growth in 2005. Consumption
The first-half slowdown was even more abrupt and investment have held up, reflecting gradual
in Taipei,China, which recorded growth of 2.8%, growth in employment and wages, and firmer
or half the growth rate experienced in 2004. This asset markets. Share prices reached their highest
economy, also dependent on global electronics levels in more than 4 years in August, and
demand, saw its export growth rate, measured property prices have rebounded about 70% since
in US dollars, plunge to 7% in the first half of the housing market bottomed out in August 2003.
2005, from 26% in the year-earlier period. The The forecast for Hong Kong, China’s growth in
relocation over recent years of some electronics 2005 is trimmed by 0.3 percentage point to 5.4%.
production to the PRC, where labor costs are Second-half economic activity will be damped by
lower, has reduced Taipei,China’s export capacity interest rate increases over recent months and by
while lifting exports from the mainland. Import the expected cooling in the PRC. For 2006, these
Developing Asia and the world 21
factors will remain in place, such that growth losses are growing, though, and securing price
is expected to moderate to 4.3%. The current adjustments in this sensitive area while avoiding
account surplus will decline from the high levels abrupt impacts on prices and output is a crucial
of the past 2 years, but still exceed 7% of GDP task for most country policy makers in the period
this year and next. Inflation is forecast at 1.2% in ahead.
2005, rising to 2.2% in 2006. Projections for the aggregate current account
Mongolia, the least-developed economy in the deficit in South Asia have been raised by up to
subregion, is expected to grow at 7.0% this year, 0.5 percentage point of GDP to 1.5% in 2005 and
an unchanged forecast from ADO 2005. Data for 2.0% in 2006. Export growth in this period is
industrial production, mining, and trade suggest expected to moderate from 2004 rates but still
robust growth in the first few months of this year. stay robust. The envisaged downside for some
A relatively mild winter and good summer rains countries from loss of garment quotas applicable
augur well for agriculture. However, inflation has under the Multifibre Arrangement has not yet
spurted and the full-year forecast for prices is been seen in the subregion. Indeed, data for the
revised up to 10.0%. first 5 months of 2005 in the important US market
The projections for East Asia’s economies, show Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka
which are increasingly linked to the PRC, are with double-digit expansion in apparel/knitwear
vulnerable to changes in that large economy’s imports on the same period a year earlier, while
performance. While the PRC has expanded by many other supplying countries recorded declines.
7.5–9.5% annually over the past 5 years and The outlook for India (accounting for about
looks set to stay at the top end of this range four fifths of the subregion’s GDP) is for GDP
over the next 2 years, there are downside risks growth of 6.9% in FY2005 and 6.8% in FY2006.
that center on banking system weaknesses,
energy bottlenecks, and overcapacity in certain Figure 1.6 GDP growth, South Asia, 2004–2006
industries.
%
Recently the Government announced the Bharat higher oil prices pushed imports up by 38.1%
Nirman (Building India) program, which will and, though export growth was robust at 16%,
spend Rs1,740 billion (US$40 billion, equivalent to the trade deficit widened sharply to $4.5 billion.
5% of FY2005 GDP) in six critical areas of rural Remittances and official transfers held the current
infrastructure investment over the next 4 years. account deficit to $1.5 billion, or 1.4% of GDP.
This initiative upgrades growth prospects for Sound macroeconomic fundamentals,
FY2006, and adds to the continuing underlying enhanced private investment, and a significant
forces for a positive outlook, including an accel- expansion in the public sector development
eration in private investment activity, a rise in program will bolster Pakistan’s economy in
consumerism by a growing middle class, a more FY2006, though their positive impact is expected
aggressive competitive financial sector, a record to be diminished by the increase in global oil
of business opportunities demonstrated in export prices. The net result is that the economy is now
sales, and the continuing impact of market liber- projected to grow by 6.5%, i.e., 0.5 percentage
alization policies. point lower than forecast in ADO 2005. Having
Inflation was a moderate 4.1% in mid-2005 and peaked in FY2005, inflation is expected to decline
monetary growth was within the Reserve Bank somewhat to 8.5% during FY2006, in response
of India target. Projected inflation in this Update to monetary tightening and the opening up
has edged up to 4.8% for FY2005 and 3.3% in to imports of essential food items from India.
FY2006, though the outlook is clouded by uncer- However, a large monetary overhang, higher world
tainty stemming from the very limited adjustment oil prices, and an expansionary fiscal policy will
of domestic oil product prices to higher global make it difficult to contain price increases.
oil prices over the past two fiscal years and into While price adjustments have been made,
FY2005. This divergence has been financed mainly high oil prices are likely to have a negative fiscal
by losses of state-owned oil marketing companies. impact of about PRs30 billion (0.4% of GDP) in
Such losses for FY2005 are estimated at 1.1% of the form of revenue loss due to lower petroleum
GDP (up from 0.6% in FY2004) in the absence of surcharges and additional subsidies to oil
further price adjustments. marketing companies and refineries. Moreover,
Forecasts for imports and the current account large rises projected in development spending and
deficit are revised upward to account for higher in government servants’ salaries and pensions will
international oil prices now specified in the contribute to a higher fiscal deficit in FY2006,
baseline assumptions. Accordingly, the current though it will remain below 4.0% of GDP.
account deficit is raised to 1.5% of GDP in Imports are forecast to grow at about 18%
FY2005 and 1.8% in FY2006, about 0.5 percentage in FY2006 because of continuing fast economic
point above the ADO 2005 forecast. Despite the growth and a steeper oil bill, while exports are
widening of the deficit, continued strong capital expected to grow by about 15%, benefiting from
flows are expected to keep the overall balance of liberal incentives for export industries announced
payments in surplus. in the FY2006 budget and the ending of textile
Pakistan’s GDP growth at 8.4% in FY2005 quotas at the start of 2005. Expansion of the
(ended 30 June 2005) exceeded expectations, trade deficit and higher shipping charges point
with output in manufacturing and agriculture to the current account deficit widening to about
surprising on the upside. Favorable weather and $3.5 billion, or 2.8% of GDP, though financing
expanded availability of credit and fertilizer is not expected to present a problem because of
boosted agricultural growth to 7.5%, a 9-year anticipated substantially larger privatization-
high. Growth was underpinned by strong related FDI in FY2006.
domestic demand fueled by record growth in In Bangladesh, GDP growth for FY2005
private credit, higher farm incomes, and stronger (ended June 2005) slowed to 5.4%, mainly
inflows of workers’ remittances. Mainly reflecting reflecting the adverse impact of devastating
demand conditions but aggravated by food flooding in July–September 2004. Inflation
shortages, average CPI inflation jumped to 9.3%, picked up to 6.5% due to higher food prices, and,
the highest rate in 8 years. Robust growth and amplified by a 4% depreciation of the taka, higher
Developing Asia and the world 23
prices for commodity imports. Imports grew to budget strains. While the major risk remains
rapidly (up 20.6%), reflecting a 54% jump in the uncertainty over the cease-fire and peace process
oil import bill (to $1.5 billion) and a strong rise in with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (Tamil
non-oil imports. Although exports and workers’ Tigers), fissures in the Government’s parlia-
remittances grew rapidly, the current account mentary coalition over reaching an aid-sharing
position moved to a deficit of 0.9% of GDP in arrangement with the Tamil Tigers and the
FY2005 from a 0.2% surplus a year earlier. The August decision of the Supreme Court requiring
jump in the oil import bill caused much larger a presidential election in 2005 (to be held between
losses (estimated at $445 million, equivalent 22 October and 22 November) add greater political
to 0.7% of GDP in FY2005) at the state-owned risk to the economic outlook.
Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation as the The outlook for the Maldives is unchanged—
Government has allowed very little adjustment in 1.0% growth in 2005 and a sharp recovery in
domestic prices for oil products. The losses have 2006 at 9.0%. Data through July 2005 show tourist
been entirely financed by domestic and foreign arrivals steadily recovering from the shock of the
borrowing. Policy in the year ahead will need tsunami, continued price stability, and a balance-
to grapple with an even higher oil bill and the of-payments current account deficit being financed
appropriate means for greater price adjustment. without loss in foreign exchange reserves.
A reduction in oil taxation in the FY2006 budget This Update raises Afghanistan’s projected
will help stem oil company losses but will place GDP growth from 11.3% to 13.6% in FY2005
further pressure on revenue mobilization to (ended 20 March 2006) on the basis of an
continue to meet budget deficit targets. apparent rebound in agricultural production.
The outlook is for GDP growth to stay level The 10.0% expansion for FY2006 projected in
at 5.5% in FY2006, a half point lower than the ADO 2005 is maintained. Year-on-year inflation
ADO 2005 projection. Growth will be aided by declined to 11.5% in June 2005 (from 16.3% at the
recovery in agriculture but some moderation in end of FY2004) and is expected to moderate to
production and export of garments is expected as 10.0% by end-FY2005, according to the IMF staff-
global competition becomes more intense. More monitored program. The Government continues
generally, the outlook points to the need to tighten to implement sound macroeconomic policies and
monetary policy, both to keep a lid on market structural reforms in the context of a difficult
pressures on the exchange rate as the current security environment.
account deficit widens and to contain inflation, and Bhutan’s outlook for GDP growth at 8.0%
this will restrain growth. Although both import in FY2005 (ended June 2005) and FY2006 is
and export growth is forecast to slow, the current maintained. National accounts estimates were
account deficit for FY2006 is now projected at recently rebased to 2000 prices and, with more
1.7% of GDP, 0.7 points larger than in ADO 2005. weight given to the power sector, outcomes on
Inflation is expected to be contained at 6.0%. this new basis could be higher. The medium-
For Sri Lanka, this Update edges projected term outlook continues to be favorable because of
GDP growth down to 5.1% in 2005 and 5.5% development of new luxury resorts for high-end
in 2006, slightly lower than in ADO 2005, but tourism and export revenue from the startup of
even then the medium-term outlook for a solid the 1-gigawatt Tala hydroelectric project.
aid-assisted recovery from the December 2004 In Nepal, GDP growth for FY2005 (ended
tsunami (Box 1.3) is essentially unchanged from mid-July 2005) was only 2.0% (against an
that April forecast. The central bank again raised ADO 2005 projection of 3.0%) owing to the
policy rates in May and June and price pressures impact of the insurgency and political instability
have eased such that CPI inflation (year on year) on the economy generally. For FY2006, this
fell from 14.1% in March to 9.4% in June. This Update marks down growth to 3.0%. Although
Update adjusts projected inflation in 2006 to 7.1%, tourism remained weak in FY2005, the current
from 9.0%. account surplus increased substantially to 3.5%
Changes in oil product prices have been made of GDP as imports were subdued and workers’
but subsidies of about 1% of GDP remain, adding remittances remained buoyant.
24 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
Box 1.3 (continued)
when reconstruction might be rebuilding effort. These emanate in have aggravated the suffering in
completed. large measure from difficulties in some tsunami-hit regions. Inflation
India is focusing on restoring restoring the informal economies of in Aceh, for example, is running
the fishing industry, housing, infra- the affected areas, and from problems at 17%, or more than double the
structure, and rural livelihoods in reestablishing property rights. national rate, mainly due to demand
in mainland states. Thousands of First, relief programs, even pressures created by the presence of
fishing boats are working again; relatively successful ones, leave gaps aid agencies and the reconstruction
electricity, water, and transpor- in their coverage. Priority is often work getting under way. Banks have
tation links are coming back into given to people who are registered faced difficulties in assessing credit
operation; and livelihood programs with the authorities, such as owners risks when records have been lost
are being undertaken through of businesses. Registered fishing and collateral destroyed.
self-help groups. However, the full communities are more likely to Building up local economies
reconstruction program is still in receive assistance for rebuilding from scratch is an enormous under-
preparation, with land acquisition, or buying new boats than those in taking. It requires investment in
development planning, and engi- more isolated areas and without infrastructure; the creation of jobs
neering design requiring more licenses. Farm workers, small-scale and support for sustainable liveli-
time. More attention is needed on traders, casual laborers, and others hoods; and efforts to put back
these preparations, as it is on the in the informal economy tend to be together the institutional and infor-
Andaman and Nicobar islands, so left out, too. mational fabric that supports com-
that the overall recovery in India’s Second, land-ownership issues mercial activity.
affected areas is speeded up. remain a serious problem for many Progress is obviously being
It appears that the fitful progress people trying to rebuild. In some made—but at different speeds in
on recovery achieved so far in the cases, ownership was recorded different places. Although the mac-
five countries may well mean that only in the name of a family roeconomic impact of the tsunami
the additional number of poor in member killed in the tsunami. For is limited, its impact will endure
2007 could exceed 600,000. others, all copies of records were in the affected localities, with the
destroyed. And the very shape of additional number of poor still at
Challenges some coastal areas was changed by a high level in 2007. Minimizing
In addition to the issues outlined the huge waves that washed away economic hardships will require
above, three other main challenges land. greater efforts to address the bottle-
need to be addressed to speed Third, other problems have necks to recovery and to ensure
recovery and ensure that the disad- arisen. Bouts of localized inflation that the assistance covers those who
vantaged are not left behind in the and contraction in banking credit are being bypassed.
Inflation was at 4.5% in Nepal, but it is point from ADO 2005. Expectations for growth
likely to pick up to 5.0% in FY2006. This reflects in 2005 are reduced for Malaysia, Philippines,
higher petroleum prices, a hike in the value- Singapore, and Thailand, and these countries will
added tax rate, and an increase in civil servants’ also record much lower growth in 2005 than 2004
allowances. Foreign exchange reserves are ample (by more than 2 percentage points on average).
and the peg to the Indian rupee should continue Conversely, this Update’s forecasts for Cambodia,
to cap inflation, unless prolonged supply Indonesia, and Lao People’s Democratic Republic
disruptions materialize. (Lao PDR) are revised up, while the projection for
Viet Nam is unchanged.
Southeast Asia Various factors have conspired to bring down
Growth slowed in much of Southeast Asia during growth in Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, and
the first half of 2005, as was expected in April’s Thailand.
ADO 2005. For the whole year, subregional GDP Slower growth of world trade, especially in
is forecast to expand by a fairly robust 5.0% demand for electronic products, has crimped the
(Figure 1.7), but revised down by 0.4 percentage expansion of exports. Export growth in Singapore
26 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
(in US dollar terms) fell by about half to 10% Figure 1.7 GDP growth, Southeast Asia, 2004–2006
in January–June 2005 from 21% a year earlier.
%
The Philippines suffered as well: export growth
tumbled to about 3% from nearly 9% over the Southeast Asia
same period. Malaysia and Thailand also recorded
sharp decelerations. Cambodia
Import growth, too, softened. In the
Philippines, imports actually fell by 1.5% in the Indonesia
first half, year on year, and in Malaysia import
growth slowed to 9.0% from 28.0% a year earlier. Lao People's Dem. Rep.
In both countries, the demand for imported
intermediate goods was hit by weakening export
Malaysia
growth. In Thailand, however, the higher cost of
imported oil, when combined with an increase in
Philippines
imports of other items, sustained import growth
in the first half of 2005 at about the same pace as
in the year-earlier period. Singapore
Higher global oil prices have also been a
drag on growth in some countries. Due to their Thailand
dependence on oil imports and the oil intensity of
their energy consumption, Philippines, Singapore, Viet Nam
and Thailand are particularly susceptible to the
negative effects of higher oil prices. Even Malaysia, 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14
which is a net oil exporter, feels the downdraft of 2004 2005 2006
higher oil prices through their impact on demand
Sources: Asian Development Outlook database; staff estimates.
for its manufactured products from major trading
partners (see Part 3).
Ill luck has also played a role. In early 2005,
bad weather reduced agricultural production in Viet Nam stands out with growth of 7.6%,
the Philippines and Thailand. In the Philippines, the highest first-half rate in 5 years. Both
agriculture was hit by a drought in early 2005. In consumption and investment were robust. As
Thailand, a prolonged drought lasted through the a net oil exporter, the economy also benefited
first half of the year. A new outbreak of avian flu from higher prices for its crude oil shipments.
also affected the country, which is a significant Export growth remained rapid, although import
exporter of poultry. Finally, tourist arrivals in growth was even faster because of strong domestic
Thailand fell early in the year because of the demand and higher prices for imported items
tsunami disaster of last December. such as petroleum products, fertilizer, and
Policy conditions have been less expansionary. steel. The forecast for full-year growth is 7.6%,
In Malaysia, Philippines, and Singapore the unchanged from ADO 2005, putting this year’s
fiscal contribution to growth has been reduced. expansion rate slightly above the 2004 level.
Malaysia recorded a fiscal surplus in the first Indonesia also improved its performance
quarter after expenditure shortfalls. Monetary in the first half of 2005, expanding by 5.9%, or
conditions have been tightened in the Philippines 1.5 percentage points faster than the year-earlier
and Thailand, with interest rates being raised period. This reflected a pickup in investment
from low levels. Singapore has maintained its from a low base following the smooth transition
policy of allowing a gradual appreciation of its to a new administration in late 2004 and expec-
currency. tations of greater regulatory certainty and a
Among the economies to report stronger recovery in infrastructure spending. Indonesia
growth in the first half of 2005, different factors recorded strong growth in trade—partly because
have been at play. of its large two-way trade in oil—and a higher
Developing Asia and the world 27
trade surplus. The second half presents serious of 7–8% is expected in Indonesia, Lao PDR, and
challenges, however. If the Government keeps Philippines. An easing of restrictions on rice
domestic fuel prices very low, using a high level of exports from Myanmar, plus higher costs of fuel
subsidies, this will jeopardize fiscal gains achieved and an increase in civil service salaries, could
in recent years, and foreign exchange reserves are push that economy’s inflation rate back into
beginning to slip as the Government attempts double digits.
to avert a heavy depreciation of the rupiah. The The subregional current account surplus in
investment pickup is expected to support full-year 2005 is revised down a half percentage point
GDP growth of 5.7%, revised up slightly from to 5.7% of GDP. This change follows a switch
ADO 2005 and above the 2004 growth rate. in Thailand’s trade and current account from
The Lao PDR is expected to post 7.2% growth surpluses to deficits, the first since the Asian
in 2005, a little higher than forecast in ADO 2005. crisis. Current account surpluses remain large in
The economy is benefiting from expansion of Singapore (26.0% of GDP) and Malaysia (12.7%).
gold and copper mining, the start of work on the Cambodia, Lao PDR, and Viet Nam continue to
important Nam Theun 2 hydropower project, and run current account deficits, which are expected
growth in the services and tourism industries. to be covered by official development assistance,
The Government softened the impact of higher oil FDI, and, for Viet Nam, remittances from
prices on consumers by reducing the excise tax on Vietnamese living abroad.
gasoline to 2.5% from 12%. Growth in 2006 is projected to pick up in
In Cambodia, an expanded coverage of many countries in the subregion. The average rate
national accounts to include more of the informal is expected to increase by 0.4 percentage point
sector and improved data sources mainly explain to 5.4%, though this would be slightly below the
the sharp upward revision in the growth forecast ADO 2005 forecast. Cambodia, Lao PDR, and
to 6.3% for 2005, plus upward revisions to Viet Nam are likely to record growth in the 6–8%
actual growth over the previous 2 years. Also, range. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore,
Cambodia’s garment-exporting industry has and Thailand are seen as expanding in the
not suffered as much as expected from the end 4.7–5.9% range.
of quotas under the Multifibre Arrangement. The revival in investment in Indonesia is
Tourism and construction are doing better than expected to continue, but faster growth next year
anticipated, but a drought in early 2005 reduced depends on the authorities following through
growth in agriculture. with improvements to the business environment
Myanmar’s economic performance in 2005 and tackling the politically difficult issue of
cannot be assessed because of a lack of timely huge fuel subsidies that are eroding the budget.
and reliable data. However, the country’s parallel Investment spending is also projected to rise in
exchange rate has continued to weaken, moving Malaysia, underpinned by the expected recovery
to MK1,080/$1 in July compared with the official in the global electronics cycle, new oil-field devel-
exchange rate of about MK6/$1. opment, and a revival in public investment as the
Inflation in Southeast Asia has been faster Ninth Malaysia Plan gets under way. Thailand
than expected in 2005. One cause is higher will also be boosted by public investment as the
fuel prices. Countries that subsidize domestic Government’s “megaprojects” investment program
fuel—including Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, builds up steam. The program could provide a
and Viet Nam—have raised fuel prices to varying direct addition to GDP of about 0.7 percentage
degrees, while Thailand ended subsidies on point a year, plus significant additional indirect
diesel and gasoline. Bad weather in the first half stimulation through the multiplier effect. The
pushed up food prices in Cambodia, Philippines, Government has also introduced an economic
Thailand, and Viet Nam. The forecast for average stimulation package.
inflation in 2005 is revised to 5.1%, up by nearly In the Philippines, a tightly constrained fiscal
1 percentage point from both the ADO 2005 position will limit public investment. The expected
projection for this year and from the actual uptick in growth in 2006 is based on a likely
inflation rate in 2004. Inflation in a higher range recovery in the global electronics cycle as well
28 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
as increased remittances from overseas workers, quarter of 2005, led by gains in oil and copper.
which will support consumption spending. Imports surged by 28% as more equipment was
Singapore, too, will gain from stronger electronics bought for the oil industry. A widening of the
orders. Its domestic demand is expected to pick trade gap led to a current account deficit for the
up following moves by the Government this year quarter, which, combined with a capital account
to revive the property market and approve major deficit, resulted in the balance of payments
casino projects. moving into deficit. Gross foreign exchange
Southeast Asia’s current account surplus is reserves totaled $608 million at the end of the first
projected to decline in 2006 to 5.2% of its GDP, quarter, equal to about 4 months of total imports.
the lowest level in 8 years and slightly below the Inflation in the first half of the year was low at
ADO 2005 forecast. Stronger levels of investment 1.2%, and is expected to average 2.8% over the full
(requiring imported capital equipment), the higher year. The kina was steady against the US dollar but
cost of oil, and, possibly, some real exchange rate depreciated a little against the Australian dollar.
appreciation will help bring down the surplus. The improvement in Papua New Guinea’s
The subregional inflation forecast for next fiscal position last year continued into 2005. The
year is revised up by 1 percentage point to 4.9%, budget in 2004 is now estimated to have been
putting it close to this year’s expected rate. As in surplus by the equivalent of 1.7% of GDP,
a consequence both of continuing inflationary compared with an originally budgeted deficit of
pressures and of US interest rate rises, monetary 1.5%. As of May 2005, the budget surplus was
policy could well be tightened in most economies. 1.8% of GDP, attributable to higher revenues from
Malaysia, having adopted a managed float of its oil and mining.
ringgit against a basket of currencies in July 2005 The country’s growth prospects for 2006
and having seen the currency firm a little, has are revised up to 3.4%. New mines are likely to
signaled that any further appreciation will be come into production, while the prospects have
gradual. improved for a proposed natural gas pipeline to
Australia. Conditional sales contracts were signed
The Pacific with Australian gas buyers earlier this year and a
The sharp rise in global oil prices is having decision on whether to proceed with the pipeline
divergent impacts on the Pacific economies. For is expected in 2006. Inflation is expected to
the two oil exporters, Papua New Guinea and average 3.4% next year.
Timor-Leste, prospects have improved. For the In Timor-Leste, the other Pacific country to
other Pacific countries, the increase has negative benefit from higher oil prices, revenue from oil
implications for economic growth, inflation, and production helped boost net foreign assets by
external balances, since most of them are remote $97 million to $284 million in the first quarter.
and import-dependent, relying on oil products This is the equivalent of 95% of annual non-
for their air and sea connections to the rest of the oil, non-United Nations GDP and more than
world, and for their electricity generation. 15 months of projected imports. Moreover, the
The growth forecast for Papua New Guinea, governments of Timor-Leste and Australia in
the biggest economy in the Pacific, is revised up July reached agreement on dividing royalties
slightly to 3.0% for 2005, after 2.6% growth in from oil and gas reserves in the Timor Sea.
2004 (Figure 1.8). The increase in part reflects The Government has established an oil fund
strong world prices for the country’s exports to manage the oil revenue for the long term.
of oil, copper, gold, and agricultural products, However, unemployment is high and 40% of the
including coffee and cocoa. Credit to the private population live below the poverty line.
sector increased by 17% over the first 5 months A moderate recovery got under way in 2004 in
of 2005, a reversal of a downward trend since the non-oil economy. In the first quarter of 2005,
2001. This suggests that macroeconomic stability bank lending to the private sector rose by 10%
achieved in 2004 is having a positive effect on from the fourth quarter of 2004, indicating that
business confidence. the recovery continued into this year. Inflation in
Merchandise exports rose by 6% in the first the first quarter was 3.5%. International financial
Developing Asia and the world 29
Figure 1.8 GDP growth, the Pacific, 2004–2006 past 3 years. The garment industry, a major export
earner, has been hurt more than was expected
%
by the cessation of US quotas. At least one of the
The Pacific country’s major garment makers has significantly
reduced production and 3,500 jobs are expected
Cook Islands to be lost in the industry by the end of September.
Total exports dropped by about 37% in the first
quarter from a year earlier, with reduced receipts
Fiji Islands
from sugar, garments, fish, and gold. Imports fell
by 4% as a result of a contraction in purchases
Kiribati
of consumer goods, but the full-year forecast for
imports is revised up because of rising prices for
Marshall Islands, Rep. of imported fuels.
On the plus side, tourist arrivals in the
Micronesia, Fed. States of Fiji Islands rose by 13% in the first quarter from
a year earlier and the value of building work,
Palau, Rep. of mainly on nonresidential private-sector projects,
almost doubled in this period. The Trade and
Papua New Guinea
Investment Bureau received investment appli-
cations for projects with a value of $660 million
in 2004, nearly double the $360 million of 2003.
Samoa
Many of the proposed investments are in tourism-
related projects.
Solomon Islands Inflation, running at 2.8% in the first half, is
projected at 4.5% in 2005, revised up from the
Timor-Leste, Dem. Rep. of ADO 2005 forecast because of higher fuel and
domestic transportation costs. The budget deficit
Tonga in June was 0.8% of GDP, well within the target
of 4.6% of GDP. Official foreign reserves in July
Tuvalu were the equivalent of 4 months of imports of
goods and nonfactor services (using an expanded
Vanuatu
definition of reserves that, according to the
Government, followed IMF guidelines).
-6 -4 -2 0 2 4 6 GDP growth in the Fiji Islands is expected
to weaken to just 0.8% in 2006 as a consequence
2004 2005 2006
of an expected further decline in the garment
Sources: Asian Development Outlook database; staff estimates.
industry and a likely contraction in sugar, which
provides direct employment for more than 10% of
the labor force and is the second-biggest export
and technical support is winding down. IMF product. The European Union has deferred a
forecasts are for GDP growth of about 3% in 2005. planned cut in the subsidized price that it pays for
In contrast, the near- and longer-term sugar from the Fiji Islands by 1 year, but it still
outlooks for the Fiji Islands, the subregion’s intends to reduce the price by 39% over the period
second-largest economy, are clouded by higher 2006–2010.
oil prices, as well as by an adverse impact from Elsewhere in the Pacific, private demand is
the ending of US garment quotas under the showing positive signs so far this year, although
Multifibre Arrangement at the start of the year. data are scarce. In the first 5 months of 2005,
The GDP growth forecast for 2005 is revised credit to the private sector increased by 14.5% in
down slightly from ADO 2005 to 1.4%, less than the Solomon Islands, by 5.5% in Vanuatu, and by
half of the growth rate achieved in each of the 5.4% in Samoa. In Palau, domestic tax revenue
30 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
for the fiscal year that ends on 30 September is subsidies on transportation to their outer islands,
expected to increase by about 16%, a reflection so their budgets may be affected.
of firm domestic demand and employment. The Public enterprises that use petroleum
money supply grew by 13% in Samoa, by about products, such as power generators and bus
9% in Solomon Islands, and by nearly 5% in operators, have been constrained in some
Vanuatu in the 5 months to May. economies from passing on the full cost increases,
Inflationary pressures have generally been with the consequence that their earnings will
moderate in the smaller countries, but price erode, or their losses increase. Public sector
pressures are likely to pick up in the second half debt in some countries is reaching levels
as a result of higher oil costs. In June, inflation where governments will not or cannot borrow.
was just 1.7% in the Cook Islands, 2.5% in the Combined with chronically underbudgeted capital
Marshall Islands, 3.5% in Palau, and below 6% investment, this has led to underinvestment in
in Solomon Islands. Inflation was about 10% in productive infrastructure and maintenance. The
Samoa and Tonga earlier in the year because of underinvestment pushes up production costs and
high food prices caused by bad weather, although increases expenditure on substitutes (e.g., private
those elevated prices are subsiding. Exchange rates generators instead of the public utility) as well as
were relatively stable against the currencies of capacity constraints (in, e.g., transport networks).
major trading partners. External balances, too, are As a way to replace some imported fuel, the Fiji
likely to suffer in the non-oil-exporting countries Islands and the Marshall Islands are considering
in the second half because fuel typically accounts the manufacture of ethanol from sugar for use in
for 10–15% of total imports and a substantial vehicles, and the conversion of coconut oil into
component of transportation costs. coco-diesel to power generators and other engines.
The importance of tourism to the Pacific has There are indications of improved fiscal
increased substantially in recent years, supported management in countries that have had a weak
by a consumer shift to safer destinations, record in this area, including Fiji Islands, Papua
improved marketing, and the entry of low-cost air New Guinea, Solomon Islands, and Tonga, but
carriers to some islands. Record tourist arrivals these improvements need to be sustained before it
are expected in 2005 in Cook Islands, Fiji Islands, is clear that the situation has reversed. Similarly,
and Palau. However, growth in this industry may several countries are preparing structural
be difficult to maintain, given the rising cost of economic reform packages, with an emphasis on
jet fuel and the constraints in some countries of improving the performance of their civil services
limited accommodation and other infrastructure. and public enterprises, as well as the environment
Rising fuel prices, to the extent that they for the private sector. However, governments have
are passed on, will hurt other industries as well, not yet taken the tough decisions associated with
particularly those that are significant consumers implementation. Further, progress on reforms
of electricity, because most countries use diesel may well be affected by the election schedule
to generate power. Increasing fuel prices will of the next 2 years, which includes Fiji Islands,
flow through to higher costs for manufacturing Samoa, and Solomon Islands (in 2006), and
and services industries. Several countries provide Papua New Guinea (in 2007).
Outlook
ASIAN DEVELOPMENT
2005
Update
Part 2
Economic trends and prospects
in developing Asia
Bangladesh
Summary rose by 8.2% compared with the same period of
the previous year, while output of small-scale
I
n April, the Asian Development Outlook 2005 manufacturing in July–March strengthened by
(ADO 2005) predicted that gross domestic 7.9% on the equivalent prior-year period. The
product (GDP) growth in FY2005 (ended services sector registered improvement, due
June 2005) would slow—mainly reflecting the particularly to strong growth in foreign trade
adverse impact of devastating flooding in July– and manufacturing. Based on recently released
September 2004—before picking up in FY2006. data, GDP growth in FY2005 is estimated at 5.4%,
Inflationary pressures were expected to accelerate down from 6.3% in FY2004.
in FY2005, due to higher domestic food prices and On the expenditure side, relatively
an increase in international commodity prices, rapid expansion was sustained by increased
while the fiscal deficit would worsen, due to a consumption, since the contribution of net exports
sharp rise in government spending in the face of turned negative and investment strengthened only
weak revenue performance. Despite an expected marginally from FY2004, to 24.4% of GDP. An
improvement in workers’ remittances, a widening increase in private investment was largely offset by
trade deficit was projected to turn the balance-of- a decline in public investment.
payments current account surplus into a deficit. Inflation picked up to 6.5% in FY2005 from
Provisional government estimates show GDP 5.8% a year earlier, due mainly to flood-induced
growth in FY2005 to be marginally higher than rises in domestic food prices and, amplified by a 4%
forecast in ADO 2005. This Update lowers the depreciation of the taka, an upturn in international
earlier growth projection for FY2006 on the commodity prices. The surge in global oil prices was
basis of pressures that will be exerted by higher not a major factor in inflation due to a limited pass-
oil prices, while the current account deficit for through to administered retail oil-product prices.
FY2006 is now expected to widen. Sustained high Despite earlier uncertainties surrounding
oil prices present a considerable risk to domestic the impact of the ending of quotas under the
fiscal and external balances. Multifibre Arrangement, exports in fact grew by
a solid 14% during FY2005. Even though growth
Updated assessment of woven garments slowed, that of knitwear
registered an impressive 31% expansion, with the
The agriculture sector, particularly foodgrain garment sector essentially matching the previous
production, slipped during FY2005 as a result of year’s strong performance. Imports during
the serious flooding that affected the country in FY2005 grew substantially faster than exports at
July–September 2004. Total foodgrain produced 20.6%, reflecting a 54% jump in the oil import
in the year is estimated at 26.3 million tons, bill (Figure 2.1), and strong rises in foodgrains
4% lower than in FY2004. Offsetting this weak and food products, industrial raw materials,
performance, industry and services recorded a and capital goods. Although workers’ remit-
steady expansion. During July–May FY2005, the tances rose by 14.2% over this period, the sharp
output of large- and medium-scale manufacturing increase in the trade deficit swung the current
34 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
Figure 2.1 Trends in oil imports, Bangladesh, tration, the revenue gain expected in the budget
FY2000–FY2005 for FY2005 did not materialize, contributing to
NJMMJPO
a widening of the fiscal deficit to 4.5% of GDP,
or slightly more than had been planned. Despite
sharply higher current spending (mainly required
to finance flood-related outlays), the deficit was
kept in check by lower than budgeted devel-
opment expenditure.
Although it is too early to make more than
a cursory assessment, earlier concerns over the
termination of quotas have not yet been realized.
In the first few months after quotas ended,
exports of knitwear and woven garments to the
Sources: Bangladesh Bank, available: http://www.bangladesh- US continued to grow rapidly. In a somewhat
bank.org/econdata/imprtpay.html, downloaded 29 July 2005;
staff estimates. different pattern, in other markets, particularly
the European Union, knitwear exports showed
robust growth while exports of woven garments
account (excluding official grants) to a deficit of slowed. Prices of some products dropped
$555 million, or 0.9% of GDP, from a surplus of markedly as suppliers came under immediate
$115 million, or 0.2%, in FY2004. However, a steep pressure to be more competitive, but in the longer
rise in the financial account surplus, propelled term, various challenges must be addressed to
mainly by net aid flows, outweighed the current improve the position of the garment industry.
account deficit, leading to a substantial surplus For example, low wages are accompanied by low
on the overall balance of payments and to a rise productivity—eroding some of the benefits of the
in official reserves of about $300 million over the country’s low-cost labor, mainly because much of
period, to $3.0 billion at end-June 2005. the industry’s capital stock is outmoded and does
Largely as a reflection of the faster growth not match standards of most global competitors.
in imports (boosted by a surge in private sector Limited availability of local fabrics (in comparison
credit) than in exports, the exchange rate with, for example, the People’s Republic of China
exhibited greater volatility in FY2005. However, and India, which can operate along the whole
pressures on the balance of payments appear more supply chain) and poor domestic infrastructure
evident in the first weeks of FY2006, with foreign also constrain expansion. Finally, following
exchange reserves declining by about $200 million several incidents at factories, the garment sector
to $2.8 billion on 20 August 2005. has now come under mounting pressure from
Monetary policy remained generally accom- international buyers and other agencies to ensure
modative in FY2005, with annual broad money compliance with social standards.
growth accelerating to 16.8% in June 2005 from
13.8% a year earlier, driven by private sector Prospects
credit. Although net credit to the Government
declined during July–May FY2005, in June 2005 GDP growth is now expected to level off at 5.5%
the Government had to borrow heavily because of in FY2006, slightly lower than the ADO 2005
delays in the disbursement of budget support from projection of 6.0% and the Government’s target
development partners. Bangladesh Bank tightened in its poverty reduction strategy paper. While
monetary policy after February 2005, both by aggregate growth in FY2006 will be aided by
raising the cash-reserve requirement of banks recovery in agriculture, expansion in industry
from 4.0% to 4.5%, and by raising treasury bill and services is expected to moderate from its
rates and repo and reverse repo rates in line with strong performance in FY2005. This slowing in
market conditions. In response, commercial banks part reflects a more moderate gain expected in
raised their deposit and lending rates. overall export growth as the garment and textile
Despite efforts to improve tax adminis- industry comes under more intense competitive
South Asia Bangladesh 35
Table 2.1 Selected economic indicators, workers’ remittances and leaves less room for
Bangladesh, 2005–2006, % maneuver should downside risks emerge.
Sustained high oil prices are a heightened
Item 2005 2006 risk to the macroeconomic outlook. In FY2005,
ADO 2005 Update ADO 2005 Update
the oil import bill jumped by $540 million to
GDP growth 5.3 5.4 6.0 5.5
$1,540 million. While the state-owned Bangladesh
Inflation (CPI) 7.0 6.5 6.0 6.0 Petroleum Corporation has experienced losses
Current account/GDP -1.0 -0.9 -1.0 -1.7 for many years, very high import prices, together
Source: Staff estimates. with administered retail prices, further undermine
its financial viability. Over FY2005, domestic
prices of some oil products were increased but the
limited adjustment meant that losses for the year
pressure. More generally, the outlook points to escalated to an estimated $445 million (equivalent
the need to tighten monetary policy, both to to 0.7% of GDP). The corporation is funding its
keep a lid on pressures on the exchange rate as operating losses with financing from the nation-
the current account deficit moves sharply worse alized commercial banks and a credit line from
and to contain inflation. Tightened interest and the Islamic Development Bank. Budgets have not
credit policies in turn may slow consumer and provided for subsidies.
investment spending. Foreign direct investment To reduce the corporation’s losses, the FY2006
is expected to be maintained at recent levels budget substantially reduced oil taxation; cut the
in the next couple of years but could pick up duty rate on crude oil to 7.5% from 25%; lowered
significantly after that if ongoing negotiations over rates on petroleum products to 15% from 25%; and
several large investment projects prove successful. cut to zero the supplementary duty on products
Inflation is expected to moderate to 6.0% from 15%. Even so, without a substantial pass-
in FY2006, helped to a great extent by the through of international prices to consumers, losses
recovery in crop production, the continuation of will remain large. The accumulated losses—in
the Government’s policy of gradual adjustment effect, a quasi-fiscal obligation—will eventually need
to international oil prices, tightened credit to be dealt with by the Government. Moreover,
conditions, and the maintenance of strong fiscal since oil taxes have accounted for about 11% of tax
policies. Fiscal deficits in these 2 years are put revenue in recent years, the issue of forgone taxes
at about 4.5% of GDP, in line with the targets in (the effective tax rate appears now to be just less
the poverty reduction strategy paper. Revenue than 15%) will have an immediate impact on the
collection is targeted to improve by 0.5% of GDP budget, in spite of the fact that higher average oil
annually, but this will require strengthened efforts prices over FY2006 work to raise the tax base.
at implementation of reforms in the tax system High oil prices mean the Government will
and more effective tax administration. also need to mobilize external financing adequate
Growth in exports is expected to moderate to ensure that foreign exchange is available in the
somewhat in response to stiff global compe- market both for oil and other essential imports,
tition in garments and textiles but generally to such that excessive pressures are not placed on the
remain healthy in the forecast period (e.g., 12.0% exchange rate or on the country’s foreign reserves.
in FY2006). Although slower than in FY2005, Over the medium term, Bangladesh faces
growth in imports will still be large (15.0% in downside risks to its economic prospects. These
FY2006), mainly reflecting a continued steep include the longer-term consequences of the loss
rise in the oil import bill and in inputs to the of quotas for the garment industry; the impli-
heavily import-reliant garment sector. The current cations of high oil prices on macroeconomic
account deficit is now expected to escalate to 1.7% management; and political uncertainty, especially
of GDP in FY2006, or 0.7 percentage point larger in the lead-up to the January 2007 elections.
than the ADO 2005 projection. This outcome is Natural disasters affecting the performance of
despite a steady strong projected expansion in agriculture, of course, are a perennial risk.
People’s Republic of China
Summary net exports, still-buoyant investment, and an
acceleration of consumption. Continuing strong
F
irst-half GDP growth in 2005 was faster growth aided employment generation: about
than anticipated, reflecting expansion in 6 million new jobs were created in this period, or
net exports, strong investment, and accel- some two thirds of the target for the whole year,
erating consumption. Mainly on this basis, the mainly by the private sector.
Update revises upward the GDP growth forecast Net external demand contributed significantly
for 2005 to 9.2%. A good harvest has damped to GDP growth. Exports continued to power
inflation, paving the way for the consumer price ahead, up by 32% in the first 7 months. Textile
inflation forecast to fall to below 3% for 2005. exports surged in the first quarter, supported by
The larger than expected trade surplus has led the abolition of textile quotas under the Multifibre
to an upward revision of the current account Arrangement. The associated trade frictions
surplus relative to GDP. and resultant agreements (with, for example,
For 2006, the growth projection remains at the European Union) led to a drag on textile
just below 9%. Trade surpluses will likely narrow expansion in the second quarter.
as the export surge, trimmed by softer global Total import growth, in contrast, slowed
trade growth, is tempered. Investment is expected to 14% in the first 7 months, significantly less
to decelerate due to moderate credit expansion than the 35%-plus rate of the previous 2 years
and deteriorating profitability. (Figure 2.2). Particularly affected were agricultural
In an exchange rate policy move with and mineral products, base metals, machinery
significant implications, the People’s Bank of China and equipment, and motor vehicles and parts.
in July announced that it would no longer peg A good harvest, slightly slower investment
the yuan to the US dollar but would manage the growth, a stronger competitive position for some
exchange rate based on market supply and demand domestic industries such as automobiles, and a
and with reference to a basket of foreign currencies. drawdown in oil inventories were the main factors
The central bank also revalued the yuan. contributing to slower import growth.
Downside risks to the growth outlook are The continued upsurge in exports, combined
energy concerns, weaknesses in the banking system, with decelerating imports, produced a trade
overcapacity in some industries, and the possibility surplus of $39.7 billion in the first half, a
that rural incomes will come under pressure. turnaround from a trade deficit of $7.6 billion
in the same period of 2004. Expectations of a
Updated assessment currency appreciation also played a role in the big
trade surplus, as some companies brought forward
GDP data for the first half of 2005 showed little exports and delayed imports.
sign of the anticipated growth slowdown. The Retail sales grew by 12.0% in real terms in the
first-half rate was 9.5% year on year, similar to first half, 1.8 percentage points higher than the
the rate for the whole of 2004. Underpinning year-earlier period. Sales were boosted by rising
growth in the first half of the year were surging household incomes. Real rural incomes grew
East Asia People’s Republic of China 37
Figure 2.2 Growth of exports and imports, and trade Consumer price inflation, which hit an 8-year
balance, People’s Republic of China, 1996–2004 high of 5.3% in July–August 2004, slowed to 2.3%
% $ billion
in the first half of 2005, and is expected to remain
40 50 low in the second. The consumer price index
(CPI) rose by just 1.8% in April and May from a
30 40 year earlier. Food prices, which account for about
one third of the CPI basket, rose at a slower rate
20 30 in the first half of 2005 than over 2004 because
of a better harvest. Ex-factory prices rose by
10 20
5.6% in the first half, but this was not all passed
0 10 onto consumers because of oversupply of many
products. The CPI forecast for 2005 is revised to
-10 0 from 3.6% in ADO 2005.
below 3% �����
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) fell
Export growth (left scale) by ����������������������������������������������
3.2�������������������������������������������
% in the first half of 2005, compared with
Import growth (left scale)
Trade balance (right scale) 12.0% growth in the year-earlier period. Since FDI
commitments rose strongly in 2004 and increased
Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China.
by ��������������������������������������
19������������������������������������
.0����������������������������������
% ��������������������������������
in the
�����������������������������
fi�����������������������
r����������������������
st �������������������
6 months of 2005, disbursed
FDI is expected to pick up in the second half of
the year. Reduced FDI inflows did not curb the
by 12.5%, 3 percentage points faster than urban rise in foreign exchange reserves, though. By
incomes, following increased grain production midyear, they had soared by 51% from a year
and government efforts to assist farmers, including earlier to $��������������������������������������
711 ����������������������������������
billion, supported by the growing
the abolition of the agricultural tax. Retail sales current account surplus and greater inflows of
data suggest that overall consumption (public and short-term capital, possibly in anticipation of
private) is firm, but past evidence suggests that its a yuan appreciation. The monetary authorities
growth may be somewhat more moderate. continued to sterilize foreign capital inflows to
Although the growth rate of fixed asset limit the impact of reserves accumulation on
investment in the first half remained high at monetary growth and domestic credit expansion.
25.4%, this was below the 28.6% posted a year In the financial sector, the authorities moved
earlier. Nominal fixed investment growth tends to control a surge in house prices and excessive
also to exaggerate that of real investment as investment in the real-estate sector by raising
measured in the national accounts. mortgage rates and by introducing a tax on
Government policies to rein in investment in housing transactions. Although growth rates
sectors that it considers overheated, particularly of loans and broad money supply (M2) showed
real-estate development, started to have an impact. a modest acceleration in June and July, the
Investment is expected to slow further in the monetary authorities are not expected to signifi-
second half because of tighter credit and reduced cantly relax monetary and credit policies.
corporate investment resulting from a moderation According to a survey by the People’s Bank
in profit growth. This expected deceleration in of China, between the second quarters of 2004
the second half, together with a slowdown in and of 2005, the weighted average 1-year lending
export growth caused in part by recent steps to rate rose by almost 200 basis points, while the
constrain exports of energy-intensive products benchmark lending rate went up by only 27 basis
such as aluminum and steel, will slightly cool points. This sharp rise in the average lending
GDP expansion from the first-half pace. However, rate followed the removal of upper limits on
the forecast for the whole of 2005 is revised to lending rates by the central bank in October 2004,
9.2%, from 8.5% in ADO 2005. The 2005 current and reflected pressure from the China Banking
account surplus is now expected to be 4.7% of Regulatory Commission on commercial banks to
GDP, largely as a consequence of the increased tighten credit risk management and to enforce
trade surplus. more stringent capital-adequacy requirements.
38 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
Table 2.2 Selected economic indicators, owned Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
People’s Republic of China, 2005–2006, % (ICBC), the country’s largest bank in terms of
assets. Strengthening of the capital base is in
Item 2005 2006 preparation for a public offering of stock. ICBC
ADO 2005 Update ADO 2005 Update
also disposed of CNY459 billion of nonperforming
GDP growth 8.5 9.2 8.7 8.8
loans to asset management companies. The total
Inflation (CPI) 3.6 2.5 3.3 2.6 nonperforming loan ratio of the four large state-
Current account/GDP 1.2 4.7 0.4 3.6 owned commercial banks declined to 10.1% by
Source: Staff estimates. the end of June from 15.6% at the start of 2005,
largely because of ICBC’s disposal of such loans.
The tightening of fiscal policy, expected in
In a move with significant implications, on ADO 2005, appears to be on track. Revenues and
21 July the central bank adopted a managed expenditures both rose by about 15% in the first
exchange rate with reference to a basket of foreign half of the year, with revenues rising faster than
currencies, dominated by the US dollar, euro, yen, expected. The fiscal deficit is expected to narrow
and won, in what would appear to be a first step to 0.9% of GDP over the full year, from 1.5% in
toward greater exchange rate flexibility (Box 2.1). 2004. As part of its move to phase out prefer-
The yuan was revalued by 2.1% to CNY8.11/$1. ential policies for foreign-funded enterprises, the
Reform of the banking system continued. Government is considering a uniform corporate
In April, the Government injected $15 billion tax rate for both foreign and domestic enterprises.
of foreign reserves as new capital into the state- In other policy developments, the Government
issued a document in February aimed at stimu- biggest consumer of oil and one of the largest oil
lating private sector development. More of the importers in the world. More than 40% of the
areas that are currently dominated by state-owned economy’s oil requirements are imported. Until
enterprises (SOEs) will be opened to private 1993 the country was a net oil exporter.
investment, including public utilities, infra- The thirst for oil has been abetted by a more
structure, financial services, and social sectors than 20% annual average increase in private
such as education, health, culture, and sports. vehicles over the past 3 years. Moreover, the
economy does not use energy efficiently (see
Prospects Part 3). In addition, the domestic oil pricing
system is not fully market based. For example,
This Update forecasts GDP growth of just below while global oil prices rose by 30% in the first
9% for 2006. This figure is up a little from the 7 months of this year, the PRC retail price of
ADO 2005 projection. It is expected that high gasoline rose by only 15%, causing losses for
economic growth will be supported by rising the oil companies caught in this squeeze. Price
incomes and consumption, though the decel- controls have aggravated a shortage of gasoline in
eration of investment and net exports expected some cities, particularly in the Pearl River Delta,
from the second half of 2005 is likely to bring in part because oil companies can earn more
GDP growth down a little from the peak levels of by exporting the fuel. Reforms to the pricing
recent years. system are now being considered. The PRC may
Consumer inflation is expected to be just face increasing energy bottlenecks in the future
under 3% in 2006, since excess capacity in manu- unless pricing becomes more responsive to market
facturing and expected increased grain production requirements, and energy conservation and
will likely diminish upward pressure from higher efficiency are encouraged.
production costs, including rises in wages and These energy concerns pose some risk to the
benefits and in international oil prices. growth forecast for 2006. Other downside risks
The trade surplus is forecast to narrow emanate from weaknesses in the banking system,
gradually in 2006 on an expected moderation in overcapacity in some industrial products, and
export growth, which will be influenced by softer potential problems for rural incomes.
growth of world trade and by some export self- With regard to banking weaknesses, the state-
restraint stemming from pressures from industrial owned commercial banks need to improve their
trading partners. More sectors of the economy services and strengthen their capital structures
are scheduled to be opened to foreign competitors and management if they are to withstand the
under World Trade Organization commitments, competition that will follow the lifting in 2006 of
which will support import growth. The current geographic and customer restrictions on foreign
account surplus is forecast to fall to 3.6% of GDP banks under the PRC’s World Trade Organization
in 2006. commitments. With regard to overcapacity, this
The fiscal deficit is projected to narrow has resulted from heavy investment, particularly
further, to 0.7% of GDP in 2006. However, there in the steel, aluminum, cement, and automobile
is a risk that the fiscal position could be jolted industries. If this is not reined in sufficiently,
by factors such as off-budget expenditures and oversupply and subsequent lower prices could lead
contingent liabilities of SOEs. In addition, still- to deflationary pressures that seriously weaken
substantial nonperforming loans in the state- producers’ profitability and balance sheets, causing
owned commercial banks and unfunded pension further problems both for their lenders and for
requirements could weaken the fiscal position. growth more widely. Finally, rural incomes have
Money supply is expected to grow broadly in risen faster than urban incomes in recent quarters,
line with nominal GDP growth. M2 growth is but could come under pressure as farm production
projected at 14–15% next year, almost the same as costs look likely to rise faster than prices of farm
in 2004 and 2005. products. Additional government measures to
As a consequence of rapid economic growth assist rural communities are required to maintain
over many years, the PRC has become the second- the growth in rural incomes.
India
Summary To close the gap over the medium term, both
improved revenue mobilization and a rational-
I
n April, ADO 2005 predicted that India’s ization of expenditure are needed.
buoyant growth performance would continue
in the medium term. It also identified several Updated assessment
challenges, including meeting the fiscal consoli-
dation targets as laid down in the Fiscal Respon- Economic expansion in FY2005 is expected to
sibility and Budget Management Act of 2003, maintain the pace of FY2004, and early data
stepping up infrastructure investments, managing support this view. The Index of Industrial
burgeoning foreign exchange reserves, and rein- Production grew by 11.7% in June (year on year),
forcing India’s competitive advantage in textiles a 9-year high, to record a 10.9% expansion in
and garments. This Update reconsiders prospects the first quarter of FY2005 (April–June 2005).
in a context where international oil prices Business confidence polls also generally report
continue to rise. bullish expectations, although some surveys point
GDP grew by 6.9% in FY2004 (ended to more tepid sales and output over the next
31 March 2005), and it is expected that this 6 months.
momentum will be broadly maintained in The performance of the agriculture sector
FY2005–FY2006. The recent infrastructure will be contingent on monsoon rains, as well as
initiative by the federal Government is expected their geographic distribution. It is too early to
to buoy activity, particularly in FY2006. High and accurately assess the final impact of the monsoon
rising oil prices have been factored into revisions on agricultural activity, but there is some concern
of growth, inflation, and the current account. that it may be adversely affected by the uneven
The Mid-Term Appraisal of the 10th Five-Year distribution of rain early in the season. Although
Plan, published in June 2005, presents a detailed agriculture remains important, accounting for
assessment of the performance of the economy as about 25% of GDP and employing about 70% of
a whole as well as of individual sectors in relation the population, its share is declining and linkages
to the 10th Plan targets. The picture that emerges between farm output and industrial activity are
is the following: the economy is doing well in becoming weaker.
several areas and gains in these areas need to be In view of developments in the early months,
consolidated, but important weaknesses remain, the GDP growth projection for FY2005 in
which, if not corrected, could undermine current ADO 2005 of 6.9% is unchanged in this Update,
performance. and is based on the assumption of a normal
This Update highlights the constraints to monsoon. The Mid-Term Appraisal sees an
growth posed by inadequate infrastructure. average growth rate of somewhat more than 7%
Federal and state governments have been unable over FY2005 and FY2006.
to mobilize sufficient resources to support Inflation, as measured by the wholesale price
the outlays in line with the 10th Plan that are index, was 4.1% (year on year) as of 2 July 2005;
required to achieve its 8% annual growth target. excluding food the index was up by 4.7%. Prices
South Asia India 41
Figure 2.3 Oil prices, India, April 2003–July 2005 $26.2 billion. Foreign exchange reserves (excluding
gold and special drawing rights) amounted to
Index
April 2003=100 $135.6 billion at end-March 2005, providing about
10.5 months of goods and services import cover.
240
220
The rupee appreciated by about 2.2% against the
200 US dollar over FY2004.
180 Customs data show that exports and imports
160 grew by 19.5% and 38.0%, respectively, in the
140 first quarter of FY2005, compared with the same
120 period of the previous year. Oil imports rose
100 by 33.2%. While export growth of textiles and
80
Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan Apr Jul
readymade garments declined during January–
2003 2004 2005 March 2005, preliminary data for April 2005
Indian crude oil basket
revealed some turnaround in exports of cotton
Average international crude price readymade garments. Although it is too early
Mineral oil price in India (wholesale price index) to tell what the impact of the removal of textile
All commodities (wholesale price index) quotas might be, exports of textiles and garments
Note: The Indian crude oil basket is the weighted average of to the US showed strong growth of about 35%
Oman-Dubai and Brent; the average international crude price
is the unweighted average of Dubai, Brent, and West Texas over the first 5 months of 2005 from the prior-
Intermediate. year period. Balance-of-payments data for the first
Sources: Datastream, downloaded 8 Aug 2005; Reserve quarter of FY2005 are not yet available, but data
Bank of India (RBI) Database on Indian Economy, available:
https://cdbmsi.reservebank.org.in/cdbmsi/servlet/login/; RBI on official reserves show that, from the beginning
Macroeconomic and Monetary Developments, First Quarter of the fiscal year to 19 August, foreign exchange
Review 2005–06. reserves rose by $1.8 billion to $137.4 billion.
In the first 2 months of FY2005, the gross
fiscal deficit of the federal Government increased
of some petroleum products (gasoline and diesel) by 22% on the same period in FY2004. However,
were raised on 20 June 2005 and the oil products the Government is confident of keeping the
group subindex was up by 15.2% over the year. deficit lower than the budgeted figure of 4.5% of
As indicated in Figure 2.3, wholesale prices of oil GDP in FY2005. Collection of tax revenue has
products have lagged markedly behind both the been very impressive so far this year, supported
cost of the Indian crude oil basket and average by buoyancy in industrial production and high
international crude prices since April 2003. This growth of imports. As a result, the revenue deficit
divergence reflects underrecoveries of costs by widened by only 0.8% during April–May 2005 on
the state-owned oil marketing companies and April–May 2004. However, both tax and nontax
reductions in customs and excise duties. Financial revenues may well come under some continued
pressures on these companies—which, largely pressure in future months because of the losses of
because of underrecoveries, are incurring heavy the state-owned oil marketing companies, which
losses—could well prompt further adjustment of will affect any dividends they may pay to the
product prices, affecting the outlook for inflation. budget as well as direct tax payments. Already,
Full-year balance-of-payments data are now the first installment of advance tax payments from
available for FY2004. Exports and imports grew these companies is just 10% of the amount paid
by 25% and 48%, respectively, over the year. Oil last year.
imports cost $30 billion, equivalent to 28% of total Value-added tax (VAT) is now being fully
imports, and were up by 45% (or about $9 billion) levied in 21 states, but serious fiscal challenges
on the previous fiscal year, while non-oil imports lie ahead. As states will no longer benefit from
rose even more rapidly. The current account loan assistance from the federal Government for
surplus of $10.6 billion in FY2003 slipped to a their development plans, they will have to take
deficit of $6.4 billion in FY2004, but strong capital steps to improve resource mobilization and cred-
inflows contributed to a healthy overall surplus of itworthiness. Given their fragile fiscal situation,
42 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
to the forecasts for inflation, imports, and the not insignificant, especially in light of objectives
current account. to reduce the budget deficit.
Although an April 2002 reform in principle It is difficult to predict the exact timing and
stipulated that most petroleum product prices extent of any petroleum price adjustment as it
should be adjusted every 2 weeks to import would be sensitive to general economic conditions
parity levels at ex-refinery and retail levels, in and political circumstances. Such an adjustment
practice few retail price adjustments have been would also have to be made in conjunction with
made in FY2004 or to date in FY2005. As a monetary policies designed to keep inflation
consequence, underrecoveries by state-owned (and its expectations) anchored. In view of this,
marketing companies mounted rapidly to average wholesale price inflation for FY2005 is
Rs199.1 billion ($4.4 billion) in FY2004 or 0.6% now forecast at 4.8% as against 4.2% predicted in
of GDP. These underrecoveries are in addition to ADO 2005, while the FY2006 projection is raised
budget subsidies of Rs36 billion ($0.8 billion) for by 0.3 percentage point to 3.3%.
kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas for poor Forecasts for imports and the current account
consumers paid by the budget and a Rs32.6 billion deficit have also been revised to account for
($0.7 billion) contribution made by upstream higher international oil prices now specified in
oil companies. For the first quarter of FY2005, the Update baseline assumptions. Imports are
underrecoveries were reported to be Rs97 billion projected to grow by 24.4% and 21.6% in FY2005
($2.3 billion) and, on the current trend, will reach and FY2006, respectively. Accordingly, the current
about 1.1% of GDP for the year (again, this would account deficit is raised to 1.5% of GDP in FY2005
be in addition to Rs36 billion of subsidies in the and 1.8% in FY2006, about one half percentage
FY2005 budget and any upstream contribution). point above the ADO 2005 forecasts.
Although further price adjustments would bring Regarding exports, it is expected that growth
down this estimate, substantial adjustments would of 14% could easily be achieved despite possible
add to prospective price pressures. slower growth in the world economy than was
To limit underrecoveries by the oil marketing seen in FY2004. Moreover, a change in direction
companies, the Government reduced customs of exports toward rapidly growing East Asian
and excise taxes on oil and petroleum products economies provides a cushion for Indian exports,
in FY2004. Subsequently, the budget for FY2005 given the slowing in export demand emanating
called for further adjustments: cutting the from its traditionally largest trading partners—the
customs duty on crude oil from 10% to 5% while US and European Union. A structural change
the structure of basic excise duty on petroleum has been taking place in India’s export basket
products was changed with a major reduction in in recent years: services, especially financial
rates. These changes to taxes, in addition to the services and information technology-enabled
earlier cuts in excise taxes, will have a perceptible services, have emerged as a very important export
impact on prospective tax revenues in FY2005 component. Exports of these services appear to
and beyond, apart from loss of any dividends that be comparatively less affected by the volatility
the companies might pay to the budget. Since of world GDP growth. Despite the expected
customs and excise taxes on oil have accounted widening of the current account deficit, continued
for about 20% of the federal Government’s gross strong capital inflows are expected to keep the
tax revenues in recent years, the adjustments are overall balance in surplus.
Indonesia
Summary in the first half. The investment pickup, from a
low base, follows the relatively seamless transition
A
revival in investment following the smooth to a new Government after elections in 2004, and
transition to a new administration in late expectations of greater regulatory certainty and
2004 has improved the outlook for the a recovery in infrastructure spending. Private
economy. GDP grew by 5.9% in the first half of consumption growth was 3.3% in the first half
2005 and is expected to expand by 5.7% over the as consumer spending was pinched by rising fuel
full year, an estimate revised up slightly from prices.
ADO 2005. In 2006, growth is projected to edge By industry, first-half growth was fairly robust
higher, to 5.9%. in manufacturing, construction, and services,
Inflation, averaging 7.7% in the first 7 months but agricultural production grew by just 0.3%
of 2005, is well above expectations. Higher food (Figure 2.4) while mining output (including oil
prices, an increase in administered prices of fuel, and natural gas) shrank by 0.9%. With the pickup
and a weakening of the rupiah are the main in investment, GDP for the whole year is likely to
causes. For the whole year, inflation is expected to expand by about 5.7%, revised up from 5.5% in
average 7.5%. ADO 2005. Although the December 2004 tsunami
The policy to subsidize domestic fuel prices has devastated communities in Aceh and North
through the budget has put the fiscal position Sumatra, it has not had a significant impact on
under pressure as global oil prices have climbed. national economic growth.
Although the Government took the politically Inflation has been higher than earlier
difficult decision to raise domestic fuel prices in projected, averaging 7.7% in the first 7 months
March, a substantial element of subsidy remains of 2005, largely on the back of increases in food
and it still had to raise the full-year allocation for prices, a boost in administered fuel prices from
subsidies to $7.9 billion. Despite major resources March, and a declining rupiah. Prices of fuel and
of oil, natural gas, and coal, the economy is electricity might be raised again. For the full year,
vulnerable to rising oil prices due to underin- inflation is now estimated at about 7.5%, revised
vestment in production and fast demand growth up from 5.9% in ADO 2005.
underwritten by expansive subsidies. The increase in investment—together with the
associated requirement for more capital equipment
Updated assessment and production materials—was a major reason that
imports grew by a rapid 35.4% in the first half of
Supported by continued strong growth in fixed 2005. Exports also grew strongly, at 27.5%, partly
capital investment, GDP grew by 5.9% in the as a result of higher prices for shipments of oil
first half of 2005 on a year-on-year basis, an and natural gas. The trade surplus rose by 12.3%
improvement from 4.4% in the first half of 2004 to $12.2 billion. Tsunami-related emergency relief
and 5.1% for all of that year. This performance boosted net transfer receipts in the first quarter.
largely reflects improving investor confidence in The forecast for the full-year current account
the economy. Fixed investment expanded by 13.6% surplus is revised up to 2.3% of GDP from 2.1%.
Southeast Asia Indonesia 45
Figure 2.4 Growth of selected GDP components, end-August 2005. In nominal terms, the value
Indonesia, H1 2004 and H1 2005 of the rupiah was lower than at any point in the
%
last 4 years. Foreign exchange reserves fell by
14 10.5% to $32.5 billion by mid-August, mainly
a result of higher oil import costs, short-term
12
capital outflows, and central bank support for the
10 rupiah.
8 To lean against the higher demand for
6
dollars and higher inflation, Bank Indonesia has
raised domestic interest rates: the 1-month Bank
4
Indonesia Certificate rate has been increased by
2 2.07 percentage points so far this year, to 9.50%
0 in August. (The surge in inflation had pushed real
H1 2004 H1 2005 H1 2004 H1 2005 interest rates into negative territory.) However, the
By industry By expenditure account banking system is potentially vulnerable to rising
Agriculture Private consumption expenditure rates: its nonperforming loans increased to 7.9% in
Industry Gross fixed capital formation
Services Exports of goods and services June 2005 from 5.8% at end-2004, and the capital-
adequacy ratio for commercial banks declined.
Sources: Badan Pusat Statistik.
The economy is not creating enough jobs to
absorb new entrants into the labor market. About
1.2 million jobs were generated in the period
The rising global oil price has put the August 2004 to February 2005, but the National
budget under pressure as the cost of subsidies Labor Force Survey indicates that the number
has increased with a widening gap between of unemployed rose to 10.9 million, or 9.9% of
domestic fuel and international oil prices. In the workforce, as of February 2005. Among the
June, the Government increased the budget employed, construction workers are enjoying
allocation for fuel subsidies to Rp76.5 trillion rising real wages due to increased building
($7.9 billion) from Rp19 trillion in the October activity, but for those working in the urban
2004 budget. It has subsequently estimated the informal sector, real wages are still lower than
subsidy in the 2006 draft budget at Rp101 trillion. before the 1997 crisis.
Although a $2.7 billion Paris Club moratorium
to support tsunami relief provides some fiscal Prospects
flexibility, the authorities must weigh the costs
of keeping domestic fuel prices low relative to The upturn in investment is a positive devel-
world prices. While the Government revised the opment that holds out the hope of increased
budget deficit target from 0.8% to 1.0% of GDP, economic growth, greater employment, and higher
Bank Indonesia has predicted that the gap will wages. To sustain the investment expansion,
be 1.1–1.5%, compared with 1.4% in 2004. The the Government needs to follow through on its
budget target could also be undermined by delays agenda to, among other things, reduce corruption,
in approving the privatization program, including improve the legal and regulatory environment for
the sale of part of the Government’s stake in investment, and support the development of infra-
Bank Negara Indonesia, the third-biggest lender structure. On the expectation that more resolute
in terms of assets. The 2005 budget anticipates action will be taken on these fronts, GDP growth
that Rp3.5 trillion will be raised through privati- is forecast to edge higher next year.
zation, but the prospects for this are increasingly Supported by a weaker rupiah, export growth
uncertain. is expected to rise in the near term and the trade
Reflecting a combination of higher inflation, surplus may edge higher. With investment picking
the need to finance dollar-denominated oil up, however, import growth is likely to continue
imports, and some speculative selling, the rupiah to outpace both the growth of exports and of
depreciated by about 10% between end-2004 and GDP. Trade and current account surpluses are
46 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
Table 2.4 Selected economic indicators, gas, and coal. Its vulnerability to the current rise
Indonesia, 2005–2006, % in global oil prices stems from low investment in
oil production and from rising oil demand that
Item 2005 2006 has been underwritten by subsidies. Failure to
ADO 2005 Update ADO 2005 Update
provide adequate incentives to the private sector
GDP growth 5.5 5.7 6.0 5.9
and to improve the business investment climate
Inflation (CPI) 5.9 7.5 5.4 7.5 has led to stagnating domestic oil production,
Current account/GDP 2.1 2.3 1.5 1.6 while the maintenance of administered fuel
Source: Staff estimates. prices at below international market levels has
encouraged rapid consumption growth and fed
back into unsustainable budget subsidies. The
forecast to decline in the medium term. The rise revised budget assumes crude oil production of
in oil prices and weakening of the rupiah also are 1.1 million barrels a day, but the current output is
likely to result in inflation staying in the 7–8% 940,000 barrels. Major investments are needed to
range in 2006, revised up from ADO 2005. prevent a further decline, though some hope may
Budgetary prospects in 2006 depend on the be seen in recent progress in drawn-out negoti-
Government’s willingness to address the current ations with ExxonMobil to develop the large Cepu
gap between the prices of domestic subsidized oil oil field. This could boost production from 2007
products and world oil. Although domestic prices or 2008.
have already been raised, they are still well below Headway is being made in the rehabili-
world levels. In late August, the Government tation and reconstruction of tsunami-affected
stated that it plans to raise fuel prices again Aceh and North Sumatra, after a slow start. A
sometime after October. Its fiscal maneuverability recent budget revision provides clearance for
and debt position may deteriorate if the rupiah the start of large-scale public spending, and the
weakens further and interest rates and the cost creation of a coordinating body to oversee the
of oil continue moving up. In the event of still process is another positive development. The
higher oil prices, budget deficits may be larger peace agreement signed between the Free Aceh
than expected, risking an end to several years of Movement and the Government on 15 August
determined fiscal consolidation. holds out significant hopes for continued
Indonesia has large resources of oil, natural political progress in Aceh.
Malaysia
Summary first. In the first half, the economy expanded by
4.9% year on year. Growth in private consumption
G
rowth has slowed from a robust 7.1% in that period was robust at 8.7%, slightly lower
seen in 2004 and is now expected to be than the year-earlier rate, while investment grew
5.1% for 2005. This downward revision by 4.5%, 1 percentage point faster than in the
from the 5.7% projected in ADO 2005 stems same period of the previous year. But public
from extended weakness in the global semicon- consumption contracted as the Government
ductor industry, softer external trade, and slack reined in expenditure. Net exports grew rapidly, in
construction activity. Higher oil prices, too, may contrast with the year-earlier period (Figure 2.5).
be negatively affecting the non-oil sector of the The services sector led the expansion on the
economy. Growth is forecast to pick up slightly supply side, growing by 5.8% in the first half, year
in 2006, lifted by an expected upturn in the elec- on year. Agriculture and manufacturing both
tronics cycle and new spending allocations under rose by about 4.5%, while mining output barely
the Ninth Malaysia Plan (2006–2010). changed and construction, which bore the brunt
Inflation rose to a 6-year high of 3.2% in June as of cuts in public spending, continued to contract.
the Government reduced fuel subsidies and raised Growth is expected to pick up a bit in the second
some nonfuel charges. For all of 2005, inflation is half as a result of the investment rebound and
forecast at 3.3%, revised up by nearly 1 percentage a forecast increase in exports, putting full-year
point from the ADO 2005 estimate, but is expected growth at 5.1%.
to ease thereafter. The trade surplus has soared, Consumer price inflation rose to a 6-year
mainly the result of a sharp slowdown in imports of high of 3.2% in June, from an average of 1.4% in
intermediate goods. The ratio of the current account 2004. Aside from price rises for some food items,
surplus to GDP is revised up for this year and next. much of the increase was a consequence of fiscal
The decision in July to adopt a managed float of revenue initiatives: reductions in fuel subsidies,
the ringgit against a basket of foreign currencies the imposition of higher duties on cigarettes
had induced a slight appreciation of the currency and liquor, and an increase in road toll charges.
against the US dollar by late August. Factors helping constrain inflation included the
As a net oil exporter, the country benefits moderating growth, intense competition in the
directly from higher global oil prices, but the retail sector, and excess capacity. Inflation is
budget still bears the weight of fuel subsidies, expected to average about 3.3% in 2005, revised
while the non-oil sector is hurt by the negative up from an ADO 2005 estimate of 2.4%.
impact of higher oil prices on costs, domestic Export growth slowed to 12% over the first
demand, and exports. 6 months of 2005 from 20% in the year-earlier
period as a result of the slowdown in global
Updated assessment demand, especially for electronic goods. Import
growth decelerated even more abruptly over the
Growth decelerated to 4.1% in the second quarter same period, to 9% from 28% in the previous
of 2005, the slowest in 3 years, from 5.8% in the year. The main drag on imports was weaker
48 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
Figure 2.5 Growth of GDP by expenditure capitalization. Targets and deadlines have been
component, Malaysia, H1 2004 and H1 2005 set for reforming the companies, and these should
%
be met in four phases over 10 years. Policies to
30 be implemented over the next 18 months aim
primarily at improving company management
20 and transparency. In the intensified fight against
10 corruption, heavy sentences have been imposed
on those found guilty. The Government has taken
0 steps to reduce the opportunities for corruption
-10 by improving systems and procedures within the
public administration.
-20 Private investment is forecast to pick up in
-30 the next 2 years, underpinned by the expected
H1 2004 H1 2005 recoveries in electronics and construction,
GDP Investment new oil-field development, and a push by the
Private consumption Net exports Government to promote services.
Public consumption
Two potential issues for the financial sector
Sources: Department of Statistics. are high household debt levels and excess supply
in the residential property market. On the first
concern, household debt has risen to about 59%
Trade surpluses are set to remain high, but of GDP, and although the possibility of a Korean-
not as large as in 2005. The current account is style consumer credit dislocation is currently
expected to register a slightly smaller surplus small, such borrowing levels could cause diffi-
of 11.1% of GDP in 2006, revised up from 8.3% culties if interest rates rise.
in ADO 2005. This will likely lead to a further On the second, a glut of residential property
buildup in foreign reserves, albeit at a slower pace. has developed in most states. For example, in the
The central bank has signaled that ringgit appre- Klang Valley near Kuala Lumpur, an estimated
ciation will be gradual, so as to avoid disrupting 79,500 housing units are expected to be built
trade and capital flows. over the next 2 years, adding significantly to the
In 2006, public investment is likely to expand area’s existing stock of 391,000. Take-up rates
as more projects under the Ninth Malaysia Plan of new housing have weakened, but the supply
get under way. The Government aims to balance pipeline is still flowing as projects are completed.
the budget in the medium term, without cutting Banks have been taking on some additional risk,
spending so much that it derails economic competing for market share by offering low initial
growth. interest rates and up to 100% financing and, while
Policies will also focus on improving the the banks in general are adequately capitalized
business and investment climate by reforming and nonperforming loans have declined overall,
government-linked companies and by cracking the nonperforming ratio for residential property
down further on corruption. Government-linked stood at 9% in June. The default rate on housing
companies play a major role in the economy and would rise if economic conditions turned out less
account for a large proportion of stock market favorable than forecast.
Pakistan
Summary growth of large-scale manufacturing, which,
accounting for almost half of value added in
A
DO 2005 forecast an improvement in GDP industry, grew by 15.4%. The rapid expansion
growth in FY2005 (ended 30 June 2005), of this subsector was underpinned by strong
based on all-time-high cotton output, an domestic demand, in turn fueled by record
expected bumper wheat crop, double-digit growth growth in private sector credit, higher incomes
in large-scale manufacturing, and rapid expansion of farmers, and stronger remittances. However,
in the telecoms and financial sectors. On the value added in generation and distribution of
downside, record private sector credit growth, electricity and gas rose at a much slower pace
strong domestic demand, and high oil prices were than in FY2004, mainly because of declines in
expected to add to inflationary pressures. High oil hydropower generation.
prices and strong economic growth were expected Agriculture recorded strong growth of 7.5%
to worsen the balance-of-payments position. in FY2005, the best in 9 years—and higher than
The GDP growth outcome for FY2005 beat forecast in ADO 2005. Production of cotton shot
expectations, with output in manufacturing and up by 45.5% to 14.6 million bales, the highest-
agriculture surprising on the upside. But because ever level. Wheat also turned in a bumper crop,
of steeper than projected increases in oil prices, showing an increase of 8.2% on the previous year.
shortages of essential food items, and strong Favorable weather, expanded agricultural credit,
domestic demand, inflation was also higher than and greater use of fertilizers were the major
forecast. As expected, the current account surplus contributory factors.
on the balance of payments turned into a deficit. Services sector growth accelerated slightly
This Update trims the GDP growth forecast for to 7.9% in FY2005. As forecast in ADO 2005,
FY2006, and raises significantly the projections telecoms expanded vigorously as new private
for inflation and the current account deficit as it companies started their operations. In some
takes into account much higher baseline oil prices. subsectors that are still small, growth was
International oil prices hit $70 a barrel in extremely rapid. For example, the number of
August 2005. Sustained, high oil prices above the mobile telephone connections surged by 150% to
baseline would pose a serious risk for the FY2006 12.5 million. Finance, strengthened by reforms
forecasts of GDP growth, inflation, the balance of and privatization over the past several years, grew
payments, and the fiscal deficit. by 21.8%. Wholesale and retail trade was the other
main growth subsector, expanding by 12.0%; it
Updated assessment benefited from robust expansion in commodity-
producing sectors, a sharp rise in imports, and
The acceleration in economic growth in FY2005 double-digit growth in exports (Figure 2.6).
was much stronger than forecast in ADO 2005. Inflation in FY2005 was higher than forecast
Indeed, at 8.4%, GDP growth was the highest in ADO 2005, with, at 9.3%, the average CPI
in two decades. All major sectors played a part. rising at its fastest in 8 years. Shortages of
Industry expanded by 10.2%, mainly due to rapid essential food items, higher housing rents, a steep
South Asia Pakistan 51
Figure 2.6 Exports and imports, Pakistan, PRs11.0 billion was also lower than last year.
FY2003–FY2005 However, as a share of GDP, the 3.2% fiscal deficit
CJMMJPO
remained essentially on target because of the
higher than expected growth in the economy.
The first two and a half months of calendar
year 2005 saw the KSE-100 index surge by 65.7%
to 10,303 on 15 March. This was driven by higher
corporate earnings, privatization of SOEs through
the stock market, a large injection of foreign
portfolio investment, and speculative buying. The
subsequent technical correction turned into a
sharp sell-off and the index declined by about 37%
to 6,467 on 27 May, before rising again to 7,450 on
30 June to establish a 41.1% gain for FY2005. The
&YQPSUT *NQPSUT extreme volatility of equity prices since January
Source: State Bank of Pakistan, available: http://www.sbp.
was due to speculation as well as to uncertainty
org.pk/ecodata/Balancepayment_BPM5.pdf, downloaded generated by the planned replacement of carryover
11 August 2005. transactions on margin financing.
The robust economic growth, strong domestic
demand, and higher oil prices pushed imports
rise in oil prices, and strong domestic demand 38.1% higher in FY2005. Higher oil prices and
(largely fed by the boom in private sector credit) volumes lifted the oil import bill by 20.4% to
all played a role. $3.8 billion. Growth of nonfood non-oil imports
FY2005’s 17.0% monetary growth was also was also buoyant, with particularly large rises
only marginally lower than growth in nominal seen in imports of machinery, chemicals, and
GDP and, together with the monetary overhang metals. On the revenue side of the account, export
from earlier years, contributed to a generally growth—though in double digits—fell short of
accommodative environment. Despite the import growth by a wide margin, resulting in
sharp upswing in inflation, the State Bank of a more than threefold widening of the trade
Pakistan only began tightening in April 2005, deficit to $4.5 billion. This, along with a sharply
raising the discount rate and the interest rate expanded deficit on the services account, turned
on 6-month treasury bills. However, the average the current account surplus into a deficit, despite
interest rate on new loans by banks showed a a 7.7% increase in workers’ remittances. However,
much smaller rise and remained negative in the current account deficit as a share of GDP was
real terms, generating strong private sector less than forecast in ADO 2005 because of higher
credit growth. To address inflationary pressures than estimated current transfers.
arising from shortages of essential commodities, The bulk of the current account deficit was
the Government focused on improving supply financed through concessionary foreign loans,
through administrative and fiscal measures. In FDI, debt forgiveness by the US, and funds
the FY2006 budget, it announced exemptions or mobilized through an Islamic bond. Disbursement
reductions in tariffs and other taxes on various of concessionary foreign loans more than doubled
essential items to reduce prices. to $2.2 billion, and actual FDI was up by 60% to
Despite the shortfall in revenues from tax $1.5 billion.
on oil, total revenues in FY2005 were higher Foreign exchange reserves held by the State
than budgeted because of a significant increase Bank of Pakistan declined by $700 million to
in nontax revenues. However, spending on $9.8 billion in FY2005, or sufficient for about
defense and for meeting contingent liabilities 5 months of imports. After depreciating by 3.6%
both saw overruns. As a result, the fiscal deficit against the dollar in the first 4 months of the
of PRs209 billion exceeded the target set in fiscal year, the exchange rate remained stable.
the FY2005 budget. The primary surplus of The benefits of the strong economy are
52 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
With fast GDP growth and even stronger India and a possible upturn in bilateral trade will
import expansion, as well as ongoing also boost growth in the medium term. Easing of
improvements in tax administration, taxes external security concerns is also likely to promote
collected by the Central Board of Revenue are foreign investment. Accordingly, it is projected
projected to grow by 17% in FY2006. However, that the high economic growth will be sustained
high oil prices are likely to have a negative fiscal in FY2007, inflation will be brought down a little,
impact of about PRs30 billion (0.4% of GDP) in the fiscal deficit will be kept below 4.0% of GDP,
the form of revenue loss due to lower petroleum and the current account deficit will be maintained
surcharges and additional subsidies to oil at 2.5–3.0% of GDP. The deficit in the current
marketing companies and refineries. This is likely account of the balance of payments represents
to be more or less offset by higher than budgeted a return to more normal circumstances for a
receipts from the US for logistics support for its developing country like Pakistan that needs net
operations in Afghanistan. Debt servicing will foreign borrowing to accelerate development. The
remain on target because of efforts in recent projected deficit can be easily financed through FDI
years that have significantly improved the debt (including privatization proceeds) and soft loans.
structure. Increases in defense expenditures are Two risks to these economic projections
also projected to be limited. However, large rises need to be mentioned. First, international oil
projected in development expenditures and in prices are continuing to rise and have been very
government servants’ salaries and pensions will volatile. If they remain at their current levels,
contribute to a higher fiscal deficit in FY2006, or go higher, projections for imports, the fiscal
though it will remain below 4.0% of GDP. deficit, and inflation may have to be revised
With sound macroeconomic fundamentals, the upward, while any negative impact on the global
Government’s pro-growth policies, an expected economy could lead to lower growth of exports.
pickup in private investment, and an increase in Second, the security situation remains uncertain.
development spending, medium-term prospects for Any deterioration could harm both domestic and
the economy look good. Improved relations with foreign investment.
Philippines
Summary 6.5% and 4.4%, respectively. Transport and
telecommunications, as well as finance, continued
G
DP growth of 4.7% is expected for 2005, to lead the services sector, with both recording
revised down from 5.0% in ADO 2005. The growth of around 10% in the first half.
main reasons are that exports have been On the expenditure side, growth in private
hit harder than foreseen by the global electronics consumption spending, though supported by
downturn and that agriculture was set back by the inflows of remittances, slowed to 4.9% from
bad weather early in the year. Investment remains 6.0% in the year-earlier period. Government
generally weak and for this reason projected GDP consumption rose by 7.1%, boosted by cash
growth for 2006 is also slightly reduced. payments for maintenance and other operating
Due to the sustained rise in oil prices interna- expenses. Capital formation, however, was dismal,
tionally and to higher food prices (on agricultural contracting by 5.5%, with spending on durable
weakness) domestically, inflation rose sharply in equipment shrinking by 7.2% in the half. The
the first 7 months of 2005. This Update revises up GDP growth forecast for all of 2005 is lowered to
by 1 percentage point the inflation forecasts for 4.7% from 5.0% in ADO 2005.
2005 and 2006. Merchandise exports rose by 3.3% to
The Government has taken determined steps $19.4 billion in the first 6 months of 2005, slowing
to repair its fiscal position with new revenue- from 9.5% for the whole of 2004. The global
raising measures and with tighter discipline on slowdown in demand for electronic products hurt
spending, which together helped bring in the exports from this important subsector, which
first-half fiscal deficit below target. However, accounts for more than half of total merchandise
political and legal challenges to new tax measures exports. Electronics exports inched up by
have disrupted their implementation and injected only 0.3% in the January–June period, a sharp
uncertainty into the fiscal consolidation process. deceleration from growth of 10.3% recorded in
January–December 2004.
Updated assessment Merchandise imports fell by 1.5% to
$21.5 billion in the first half, resulting in a 31%
GDP growth slowed to 4.7% in the first half narrowing in the trade deficit to $2.1 billion. A
of 2005 from 6.4% in the first half of 2004 sharp rise in the bill for oil imports (14% of the
and 6.0% in all of that year. First-half growth 6-month total) was offset by a fall in electronics
in gross national product also decelerated, to imports (41% of the total) as softer international
4.7%, from 6.2% in all of 2004, despite a 21.5% demand for finished information-technology
rise in remittances from overseas workers. All products reduced imports of intermediate
major sectors decelerated: agricultural output components.
(representing about 20% of GDP) stagnated, The current account surplus for the first
showing the effects of a drought early in the quarter of 2005 rose fivefold to $546 million,
year, while expansion in services (some 47% mainly a result of the higher remittances. Gross
of GDP) and industry (about 33%) slowed to international reserves reached $17.7 billion at
Southeast Asia Philippines 55
Figure 2.7 Revenue and budget balance, The main focus of government policy is
Philippines, January–July, 2004 and 2005 shoring up the fiscal position. In the first
P billion 7 months of the year, total revenues rose by 11.8%
100
while total expenditures grew by only 6.1%, or
6 percentage points below the target. Conse-
80
quently, the fiscal deficit of P82.6 billion was much
60 narrower than the target of P116.2 billion. The
40 Government reported fiscal surpluses for April
and June (Figure 2.7). The primary budget surplus
20
(excluding interest expenses) through July 2005
0 was substantial, at P92 billion, an increase of 83%
-20 from the same period in 2004.
-40 However, the sustainability of this
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul performance is questionable, since it reflects
Revenue Budget balance compressed development spending and a large
2004 2004 windfall of interest income for the Bureau of the
2005 2005 Treasury. Despite the intense focus on the need
Source: Bureau of the Treasury, available: http://www.treasury. for enhanced tax revenue, the Bureau of Internal
gov.ph/statdata/monthly/mo_corsum.pdf. Revenue and the Bureau of Customs both fell
behind in their collection targets for the first
7 months, by 3.6% and 7.8%, respectively. Also,
midyear, from $16.2 billion at end-2004, equivalent notwithstanding implementation of a revised “sin”
to 4 months of imports of goods and services and tax law early this year that increased the excise
3.2 times the level of short-term debt. tax rate on alcohol and tobacco products, the
Although economic activity slowed, inflation revenue-generating performance of these products
accelerated quickly in the first 7 months of 2005 was below expectations in the first 6 months of
from a year earlier, to 8.1%, largely the result of 2005, confirming concerns related to systemic
increases in food prices due to poor harvests and weakness in the implementation capacity of
the rise in fuel prices. The inflation estimate for revenue agencies.
the full year is revised up to 7.5%, from 6.5% In a major revenue-raising move, Congress
in ADO 2005, but this could well be exceeded if in May approved an expanded VAT law (the
recent minimum-wage rises flow through into EVAT), first, to extend VAT coverage from 1 July
broader salary increases. (to include domestic shipping and air transport,
To contain inflationary pressures, the Bangko electricity, petroleum, and doctors’ and lawyers’
Sentral ng Pilipinas in April increased its policy services) and second, to increase the rate from
interest rates by 25 basis points. In July, it raised 10% to 12% from January 2006. The law also
bank reserve requirements to reduce excess puts up the corporate income tax rate from 32%
liquidity, which it maintained was flowing into to 35% during 2006–2008, returning it to 30%
the foreign exchange market and ultimately thereafter.
contributing both to inflation and to peso However, on the day the law was to have
weakness. come into force in early July, the Supreme Court
Unemployment and underemployment suspended implementation of all of the law’s
remained at high levels, reflecting generally provisions due to a claim that some elements
weak investment. The combined unemployment were not constitutional. In early September, the
and underemployment rate rose to 34.4% in Supreme Court confirmed the law’s legality, with
April from 31.3% a year earlier. FDI approvals its implementation subject to the outcome of any
dropped by 73% in the first quarter of 2005 to appeal. These delays have cost the Government
P31.5 billion, while actual FDI inflows increased P5 billion a month in revenues.
by 173% to $417 million in the first 5 months of Implementation of the EVAT would have a
2005, albeit from a very low base. one-time impact on inflation. To mitigate this
56 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
impact, a provision was added to reduce the production and exports. Growth in 2007 is
excise tax on petroleum products. However, that expected to pick up to 5.0%, provided that the
could hinder movement toward an efficient long- global economy expands as projected and that
term energy mix. weather conditions in the Philippines allow a
Quantitative analysis indicates that the EVAT sustained, modest recovery in agricultural output.
burden will be borne proportionately less by Forecasts for inflation are revised up by
the poor, in large part because of expenditure 1 percentage point, to 7.0% in 2006 and 6.5% in
patterns, including items not subject to the tax. 2007. Although mitigated by improved weather
after mid-2005, the impact of the weaker agri-
Prospects cultural production on food prices will continue
into 2006, while the higher than expected oil
This Update lowers projected GDP growth in prices are likely to lead to demands by suppliers
2006 to 4.8% from 5.0% in ADO 2005. Investment for higher power tariffs and transport fares, and
is likely to remain weak through 2006, and by labor groups for wage increases. This would
the constrained budget position effectively create a second round of upward pressure on
rules out any major fiscal stimulus. Remit- prices. In this context, the Government faces
tances from overseas workers will continue to strong pressure to balance economic efficiency,
assist consumption, and the expected upturn in and financially remunerative product and service
the global electronics cycle will help industrial pricing, with social equity.
Southeast Asia Philippines 57
Table 2.7 Selected economic indicators, from 84% of GDP in 1999 to just over 100% of
Philippines, 2005–2006, % GDP by end-2004, leaves the economy highly
vulnerable to changes in investors’ views. Any
Item 2005 2006 fiscal slippage could attract credit downgrades and
ADO 2005 Update ADO 2005 Update
higher debt service costs. The prospects for fiscal
GDP growth 5.0 4.7 5.0 4.8
consolidation depend on the success of a range
Inflation (CPI) 6.5 7.5 6.0 7.0 of government initiatives, including tax reform
Current account/GDP 3.0 4.0 2.2 3.6 (the new taxes and improved administration of
Source: Staff estimates. the system), improved efficiency of public service
delivery and reduction of costs, debt management
to reduce the interest burden, improved financial
Administrative price caps should be avoided performance of government corporations, accel-
to minimize subsidy demands on the budget, eration of privatization (especially for the power
while nonprice, targeted redistribution tools could sector), and enhanced revenue mobilization by
be used to provide safety nets for vulnerable local governments.
consumers. The Government considers that it may be
The current account is projected to remain able to achieve a balanced budget 2 years ahead
in surplus in the next 2 years, supported by of the current target of 2010, but it may well be
remittances from overseas workers. Efforts to prudent to consider retaining the initial target,
improve the investment climate will take time to after front-loading the consolidation effort but
show results, especially since high-profile events allowing for higher development spending subse-
continue to cloud investor perceptions, including quently. While the revenue-generation efforts need
a prolonged delay in resolving the dispute over to be pursued with vigor over the next 2 years,
Manila’s new airport and FedEx’s announcement and expenditure monitored closely, retaining the
in July that it would move its Asia-Pacific regional original target would provide greater fiscal space
hub from the Philippines to the Pearl River Delta for urgent spending on public infrastructure and
in the PRC by end-2008. social sectors—all essential to long-term growth
Fiscal consolidation is the overriding prospects.
economic policy challenge, and perhaps the most Forecasts on the Philippines are subject to a
important proxy for assessing confidence in greater than usual degree of uncertainty, given
economic management and prospects. The fiscal the impact that rising global oil prices have on the
deficits and large stock of government debt, of economy (Box 2.2 above), disruptions to the tax
which nonfinancial public sector debt had grown legislation, and political uncertainty.
Thailand
Summary toll. The net result was that first-quarter growth
of 3.3% was the lowest since 2001. The economy
M
acroeconomic indicators are worse than regained some momentum in the second quarter,
were projected in ADO 2005, with high with GDP expanding by 4.4%. This reflected a
energy prices a major culprit: GDP pickup in tourism and industrial production,
growth of 4.0% or slightly higher is now forecast but there was some deterioration in consumer
for 2005, revised down sharply from the earlier confidence and business sentiment. Over the first
forecast of 5.6%; inflation has accelerated faster half, the economy expanded by 3.9%, compared
than envisaged; and the trade and current account with 6.1% in all of 2004.
balances have deteriorated much more than antic- On the supply side, the agriculture sector
ipated, and will likely record deficits for the year. contracted by 5.4% during the first half, largely
In contrast, the fiscal situation has been due to the drought, while other sectors in total
stronger than projected, allowing the Government expanded by 4.8%. Except for public services,
to introduce a supplementary budget. Subsidies which benefited from increased government
on diesel fuel were eliminated midyear, which will spending, growth in all subsectors slowed
ease any future budgetary pressures and moderate significantly, and tourism-related subsectors
oil import growth, which has been the major even registered a contraction because visitor
cause of the deteriorating trade position. Accel- arrivals fell after the tsunami. For the full year,
erated public spending, particularly on a “mega- GDP growth—now estimated at 4.0% or a touch
projects” infrastructure program over the next few better—is likely to be concentrated in export-
years, will help momentum pick up, though there oriented manufacturing, as well as in construction
is a risk that the program could strain fiscal and and services.
external balances. Growth is expected to rebound On the demand side, private consumption
in 2006, as some of the factors that constrained slowed in the first half of 2005 as uncertain
it this year recede and investment in the mega- prospects for income growth, rising fuel prices,
projects program accelerates. and higher interest rates hurt purchases of durable
goods. Household debt rose to an estimated
Updated assessment 55–60% of income. In response, some controls
were introduced to check excessive lending to
The weaker GDP performance is a result of more vulnerable income groups that could be hit
several factors: higher world oil prices, which by higher interest rates in the future. Growth of
possibly cut 2005 growth by 0.5–1.0 percentage private investment in the first half decelerated
point from the ADO 2005 forecast; a drought that to 11.7%, from 13.0% in 2004, and for 2005 as a
ran through the first half of 2005; and a larger whole will probably be around 10%.
than expected impact on tourism from the Indian To support growth, the Government accel-
Ocean tsunami in December 2004. Continued erated the disbursement of public funds. An
political unrest in three southern provinces and economic stimulus package was introduced in
a new outbreak of avian flu have also taken their July. Its main ingredients were: a 5% salary rise
Southeast Asia Thailand 59
Figure 2.8 GDP growth and inflation, Thailand, most likely continue to tighten over the remainder
1999–2006 of 2005, but overall the policy stance will remain
%
accommodative unless inflation accelerates
8
further.
7 On the fiscal front, gross revenues for the
6 first 9 months of FY2005 (which will end on
5 30 September 2005) exceeded the target by 6.5%.
4 Stronger revenues allowed the Government to
3 introduce a supplementary budget of B50 billion
2 in the second quarter, aimed at supporting
1 economic growth. As financing for many of the
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 measures in the economic stimulus package had
GDP growth Inflation
already been factored into the original FY2005
budget, any additional impact on the fiscal
Sources: National Economic and Social Development Board;
staff estimates. position was limited. The July ending by the
Government of diesel subsidies, which had cost
it B92 billion over 18 months, should help ease
for civil servants; a higher minimum daily wage; any budgetary pressures. The budget for FY2005
an increase in pensions; an additional allocation is expected to remain in balance or show a small
of B20 billion for a village fund; and tax breaks surplus.
for firms offering more benefits for low-income The performance of the external sector in
workers. Many of these measures had already the first half of 2005 was mixed: merchandise
been planned and were brought forward. The exports grew by 12.5%, faster than projected, but
stimulus package is likely to push up wage imports surged by 32.5%, much more rapidly than
costs and add to the cost impact of the ending anticipated, mainly because of higher prices for
of diesel subsidies in July. Overall, both public imported oil. In May, for example, the value of
consumption and investment are expected to crude oil imports more than doubled from a year
contribute to growth in 2005. earlier. Both the trade and current accounts dete-
The unemployment rate was estimated at a riorated markedly, posting the first large deficits
modest 2.2% at the end of April. The increase in since the Asian financial crisis. The trade deficit
minimum wages may reduce demand for labor for the first 6 months widened to $8.5 billion,
later in the year, but could also boost consumer while the current account posted a $6.2 billion
spending. Inflation rose sharply in the first deficit. The overall balance of payments recorded
7 months of 2005, mainly as a result of steeper a much reduced surplus, estimated at $330 million
prices for various food products and for trans- up to midyear. International reserves remained
portation. The CPI rose by an average 3.6% in the comfortable at $48 billion at 30 June, or more than
first 7 months of the year. In July (after the diesel four times the level of short-term debt.
subsidy was ended), the CPI jumped by 5.3% from The export outlook for the second half of 2005
the year-earlier level. is more positive. Partly, this is because the supply
Higher wage costs and the pass-through of of agricultural exports has increased as the drought
higher diesel prices will maintain inflationary eased. The baht is now also weaker than during
pressures in the second half. For all of 2005, the first half. Moreover, the elimination of fuel
consumer inflation is expected to average 4.0%, subsidies and fuel conservation measures should
revised up from the 3.5% forecast in ADO 2005, moderate import growth, and imports of items,
and higher than the 2.7% of 2004 (Figure 2.8). including steel and gold, are expected to increase
Core inflation, excluding food and energy at a slower rate because of an earlier buildup in
prices, also accelerated, which prompted the Bank inventories. Consequently, the trade and current
of Thailand to raise its benchmark 14-day repo accounts could be in surplus in the second half.
rate by 25 basis points in July to 2.75%, the sixth For the full year, the current account is expected to
increase since August 2004. Monetary policy will record a deficit of 2.4% of GDP.
60 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
G
DP growth in the first 6 months of 2005 period, as tourist arrivals rose by 24%. On the
was 7.6%, the highest first-half rate in demand side, consumption and investment
5 years. Investment grew strongly, as did were robust. Retail sales increased by 9.0% and
consumption and exports. Projected growth for all investment rose to the equivalent of about 37%
of 2005 is 7.6%, unchanged from the ADO 2005 of GDP at current prices. Consumer inflation has
forecast, and the economy is broadly on course continued to run at a fast pace: the CPI rose by
to sustain this momentum through 2006. Likely 7.5% in July from the same month in 2004. The
World Trade Organization (WTO) accession and average inflation rate for 2004 was 7.7%. Higher
an improving business environment have spurred food prices, partly a consequence of the drought
foreign investment. in some areas, and rising prices for fuels have
Inflation continues to run at a fast pace and been major causes of inflation. The forecast for
this Update revises up slightly the forecast for average inflation in 2005 is now put at 6.0%, up
2005 to 6.0%. The authorities aim to rein in rapid from 5.7% in ADO 2005.
domestic credit growth this year. Exports in the first half rose by 17.4% to
A net oil exporter, the economy benefits as $14.4 billion, helped by higher prices for crude oil
higher global oil prices push up the value of and some agricultural commodities. The country
exports and boost fiscal revenues, though this shipped out an average of $527 million of crude
fiscal gain is partly offset by government subsidies oil a month during the first half and imported
on some fuels, and by the economic opportunity $362 million of refined petroleum products for
costs of spending the gains from higher oil prices domestic use. (Viet Nam does not have refining
on these subsidies. capacity, although there is a plan to complete
a domestic refinery by 2008.) The value of oil
Updated assessment exports for the whole of 2005 is forecast to rise
by about 45% to $8.3 billion if the global oil price
Strong growth continued from 2004 in the is at around $60 a barrel. Exports of textiles,
first half of 2005, with GDP up by 7.6% year benefiting from a policy to diversify markets,
on year (Figure 2.9). The industry sector, which grew despite intensified competition from textile
covers manufacturing, mining, construction, manufacturers in the PRC and elsewhere who
and utilities, contributed 3.7 percentage points benefited from the ending of the Multifibre
to first-half growth; services, 3.0 percentage Arrangement.
points; and agriculture, including forestry Imports grew by 22% to $18.0 billion in
and fisheries, 0.9 percentage point. Avian flu the first half, outpacing export growth. This
outbreaks continued, though with little impact was a result of strong domestic demand and
on the economy, in contrast to drought, which higher prices for imported petroleum products,
affected some food crops and the coffee industry. steel, fertilizer, paper, and plastic products. The
In services, the hotel and restaurant subsector merchandise trade deficit widened to $3.6 billion
62 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
Figure 2.9 GDP and sector growth, Viet Nam, 10%, with the fiscal deficit estimated at 4.4% of
H1 2003, H1 2004, and H1 2005 GDP for 2005.
% Monetary policy has been tightened because
12 of rapid growth in domestic credit. Total bank
credit soared by 42% in 2004 after some SOEs
10 launched large investment projects financed by
8 state-owned banks. Among tightening measures
taken this year, the Government increased the
6
prime lending rate from 7.5% to 7.8% in February,
4 the first move in the rate since May 2003. In
April, the rediscount rate was raised from 5.5%
2
to 6.0% and the discount rate from 3.5% to 4.0%.
0 Prudential regulations for credit institutions were
GDP growth Agriculture Industry Services revised to limit medium- and long-term lending
H1 2003 H1 2004 H1 2005 by commercial banks to 40% of their short-term
Sources: General Statistics Office.
funds. As yet, it is not clear if the authorities are
meeting their goal to hold back domestic credit
growth to 25–30% this year.
In the financial sector, the Government
in this period. For all of 2005, the current continued its efforts to strengthen the banking
account deficit is projected at 5.6% of GDP, system. A new regulation on asset classification
unchanged from ADO 2005 and similar to the and loan-loss provisioning was issued in April to
2004 balance. The projected balance-of-payments align national rules with international standards
deficit will be financed by strong inflows of and to force banks to undertake quantitative and
official development assistance, FDI, and private qualitative assessments of their loan portfolios.
remittances. The slow progress with restructuring state-owned
Higher global oil prices raised the cost of commercial banks continued. In the fledgling
government subsidies on petroleum products capital market, a stock trading center in Hanoi
(mainly on diesel and kerosene) to an estimated was opened in March to trade stocks of smaller-
$440 million in the first half of 2005. The sized companies and to assist in handling public
authorities have increased prices of gasoline, share offerings by SOEs. It supplements the Ho
diesel, and kerosene three times so far this Chi Minh City securities trading center, which
year to reduce the cost of the subsidies and to trades just 29 stocks.
discourage the smuggling of these products out of The Government has announced that it wants
the country. 253 “equitized” (partly privatized) companies
For the full year, the subsidies are expected to list on these centers by the end of the year.
to cost $790 million, equivalent to 1.6% of GDP. Development of the secondary market in bonds is
However, the oil sector is also a major source of proceeding slowly. The Bank for Foreign Trade of
tax revenue for the Government, accounting for Viet Nam in August became the first bank in the
21% of total receipts (equivalent to 4.9% of GDP). country to conduct both bond buying and selling
The net contribution of oil to the fiscal balance activities in the domestic market.
is equal to 3.3% of GDP. Other revenue sources The Government has accelerated its efforts to
expected to improve this year, due to improved become a member of WTO by the end of 2005,
collections and the expanding economy, include revising various trade and investment laws and
VAT and corporate income tax. regulations. Likely WTO accession, this year or
Import tariff receipts, in contrast, will decline next, and an improved business environment
as Viet Nam reduces tariffs in compliance with have helped spur foreign investment, with FDI
its Association of Southeast Asian Nations trade commitments of $1.8 billion in the first half
commitments. Total government revenue is of 2005, close to the level achieved in all of
forecast to grow by 15% and total expenditure by 2004. Moody’s Investors Service upgraded the
Southeast Asia Viet Nam 63
2005
Update
Part 3
The challenge of higher oil prices
The challenge of higher oil prices
Adjusting to higher oil prices: The challenge for indeed starting to surface: inflation is creeping
developing Asia up; fuel subsidies are beginning to cast a large
shadow over fiscal prospects in some places; and
O
il prices have risen higher—again. high oil prices may become a prominent factor
Benchmark Brent crude oil prices have that will further prolong the region’s generally
averaged $53 per barrel (/bbl) in 2005 anemic investment demand—outside the People’s
through 31 August. Prices climbed toward the Republic of China (PRC)—that has prevailed since
$70 level in late August, or nearly three quarters the Asian crisis.
as high again as at the beginning of 2005. No Sustained high oil prices will require
fall in prices seems imminent: oil price futures policy responses, and the ingredients of these
for end-December 2005 and end-December 2006 responses will vary among countries. In many
delivery are about $67/bbl (Figure 3.1). These oil-importing economies, fiscal and monetary
developments were not expected. The Asian adjustments will be needed to stabilize impacts
Development Outlook 2005, released in April this on prices and output. Where oil consumption
year, assumed an average $41/bbl for 2005 and is subsidized, higher prices raise questions
$39 for 2006. about the affordability and objectives of oil
The region of developing Asia and the price subsidies. For poor countries with limited
Pacific is potentially vulnerable to high oil borrowing capacity, higher import fuel bills
prices. It is a large net importer of oil (in this could present financing difficulties. But net oil
section oil is taken to include petroleum energy exporters also face challenges. Governments
products excluding natural gas) and much of there will need to consider how best to use the
its rapidly expanding energy needs are met by
oil. Developing Asia produces about 11% of Figure 3.1 Brent futures prices,
the world’s crude oil, but consumes more than January 2004–August 2005
20% of it, and this gap is widening. Economies $/bbl
in developing Asia are nearly as oil intensive
70
in energy consumption and much less energy
efficient than most industrial countries. For 60
each unit of gross domestic product (GDP),
50
measured at market exchange rates, developing
Asia consumes nearly five times as much energy 40
as Japan and nearly three times as much as the 30
United States (US).
Despite its dependency on oil and a threefold 20
Jan Mar Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug
increase in nominal oil prices since 2003, the 2004 2005
region has performed well economically. But past December 2005 delivery December 2006 delivery
resilience does not mean that developing Asia
Source: Datastream, downloaded 1 September 2005.
is immune to high oil prices. Signs of stress are
66 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
additional revenues generated by oil and, if Figure 3.2 Brent crude oil prices, 1970–2005
higher prices persist, how to manage pressures
$/bbl
for exchange rate appreciation. Over the longer
120
term, governments across developing Asia will
need to take decisions about the role of oil in 100
meeting their country’s energy needs. Policy 80
choices need to be guided by a framework that 60
promotes greater energy efficiency and environ-
40
mental sustainability of growth.
20
This part of the Update reviews the possible
consequences and challenges presented by high 0
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
oil prices for developing Asia. After a brief review
Nominal Real (H1 2005 prices)
of why prices are high, their impact on various
economies in developing Asia is examined. Policy Sources: International Financial Statistics online database,
available: http://ifs.apdi.net/imf/ifsbrowser.aspx?branch=ROOT;
responses to structurally higher oil prices are Datastream, downloaded 1 September 2005; US Bureau of
then surveyed, including a brief discussion on Labor Statistics, available: www.bls.gov.
the risks inherent in subsidizing oil products.
The review ends by setting out key principles
for guiding policy decisions, and offering some demand since 1990. The impact of rising incomes
conclusions. on oil demand in these two Asian giants—their
income elasticity of demand for oil is thought to
Why are oil prices so high? be about 50% higher than in the rest of the world
(Verleger 2005)—has been magnified by their
Figure 3.2 shows nominal and real prices for comparatively inefficient use of energy.
Brent crude for the past three and a half decades. Despite substantial increases in oil prices,
Although oil prices continue to set new records demand remains robust. Driven by still-strong
in nominal terms, in real terms they remain well growth in the US and developing Asia, global
below the peak established in the oil shock of oil demand reached 82.8 million barrels per day
1979, having generally fluctuated within a broad (mb/d) in the first half of 2005, or an increase of
band of about $20–40/bbl. At about $60–70/bbl, 1.3 mb/d from the same period in 2004 (though
today’s prices are high compared to their historical this increase is substantially less than the surge
average, though they would have to rise by another in the first half of 2004). For the entire year,
$35–45/bbl to hit the peak of $107/bbl (in first- demand is now projected to average 83.7 mb/d.
half 2005 inflation-adjusted prices) seen during As a whole, the increase in developing Asian
the month of November 1979 at the time of the demand accounted for nearly half of global
Iranian revolution. The peak annual average price, demand expansion in 2004. Although oil demand
also in 1979, is $83/bbl (in first-half 2005 inflation- is expected to rise more slowly between 2005 and
adjusted prices), a level closer to today’s prices. The 2006, it will remain robust, with projected growth
increases in nominal oil prices seen during the in the range of 1.5–2.1 mb/d (depending on the
recent run-up have also been more modest and forecasting agency).
gradual than the earlier shocks. Shorter-run influences are also at work on
Of course, oil prices reflect underlying funda- prices. In the face of severe capacity constraints,
mental forces of demand and supply, and the refiners have joined the drive to increase
demand for oil has seen steady growth, largely operating inventory levels. In the first half of
propelled by Asia’s strong economic performance. 2005, OECD stocks rose to 54 days of forward
For example, between 1990 and 2003, for the consumption, compared with an average of
world as a whole, annual demand for oil grew at 51 days since the second half of 2002. Most
1.3%, while for the PRC and India combined it countries lifted their inventories as a consequence
expanded at 7%. Together, these two countries of tight and volatile supply. For much of 2005
have accounted for almost 40% of the growth in futures prices have exceeded spot prices, helping
The challenge of higher oil prices 67
maintain upward pressure on spot prices by prices reflects expectations of higher long-run
reducing the cost of carrying inventories. marginal production costs. Long-dated prices
Investment in refining capacity has been too also incorporate a premium linked to financial
low, and a mismatch has emerged between the risks. Actual costs are a function of project
type of refining capacity now required and what complexity, host-country policies, and a range of
is available. For some time, world oil demand other factors—including the supply of equipment
has been driven by high-quality “light” crude (oil and skilled labor—none of which is known with
of low density or containing a low wax content, much certainty. Recent reports of very large cost
which makes production and refining easier) and overruns for the Sakhalin 2 liquefied natural gas
by “sweet” crude (oil with a low sulfur content). project in Russia and the Athabasca oil sands
Recent additions to production capacity have, project in Canada vividly illustrate the financial
though, largely been in the “heavy” and “sour” risks and the difficulties of investment planning.
grades of crude, which are more difficult and Although the recent surge in long-dated oil prices
costly to refine. makes investment potentially attractive again,
This lack of investment in appropriate refining investment of current strong cash flows into new
capacity and limited substitution possibilities has oil production projects remains slow. Investors are
pushed retail prices up. Since the value “stored” delaying decisions in the face of cost uncertainty,
in a barrel of crude rises when final product and new sources of supply will come onstream
prices rise, higher retail prices also help lift crude only gradually.
prices. For example, during July and August, Higher oil prices are expected to stay for the
higher gasoline and diesel prices caused by remainder of 2005 and through 2006. A recent
refinery outages in the US caused those refineries study by Goldman Sachs projects that oil prices
still operating to bid up the price of light, sweet are likely to be sustained at over $60/bbl over
crude so that they could profit from the high the period 2006–2010 (Goldman Sachs 2005).
retail prices. After a long period of both low prices and low
In the first half of 2005, world supply investment, binding constraints are being felt
increased to 84.1 mb/d, up by 1.7 mb/d on 2004’s along the length of the supply chain. Together
level. At that time OPEC’s spare capacity had with fundamental tightness in the current crude
been reduced to about 2.2 mb/d. However, once oil supply/demand balance, there are also several
countries that are prone to supply disruptions, significant risks that could cause prices to rise
such as Iraq, Nigeria, and Venezuela, are excluded, further or to spike, including robust global
spare capacity is a meager 1.4 mb/d. Given this demand (and unpredicted surges in demand from
narrow buffer, events that threaten to disrupt a large country such as the PRC), weather- and
supply are now transmitted very quickly to prices. accident-related disruptions, and heightened
For instance, an early start of the hurricane season geopolitical uncertainties.
this year along the US Gulf Coast was the main
culprit for the price surge in July, while anxieties Why high oil prices matter
over Iran’s resumption of nuclear activities and
fears of terrorist attacks on Saudi Arabia lifted the As developing Asia consumes more oil than it
price further in early August. Hurricane Katrina produces, higher oil prices are likely to eat into
pushed up the price in early September. its income growth. By how much will depend
Looking ahead, there are proven oil reserves on the extent to which oil prices rise and how
sufficient to cover current global consumption long they remain elevated. For net oil-importing
needs for over 40 years. But investment in oil countries, the impact will depend on a range of
production, refining, and distribution infra- factors, including their oil and energy intensity
structure has been paltry following a protracted and the ease with which needed adjustments take
period of low prices through the late 1980s and place. For net oil-exporting countries, higher oil
1990s. The oil industry is now moving from an prices raise oil sector profits but these benefits
exploitation phase to an investment phase. In this are often highly concentrated and can be offset
changing environment, the rise in long-dated oil by negative effects elsewhere. To understand
68 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
possible impacts, it is useful first to look at how nominal GDP calculated at market exchange rates
developing Asia’s economies depend on oil. and for purchasing power parity-adjusted GDP
from the World Economic Outlook database of
Oil and energy dependency in Asia the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The fifth
Table 3.1 profiles developing Asia’s reliance on indicator simply divides annual oil consumption
oil in 2003. Dependency is measured in four in barrels by a country’s population.
ways, using five indicators: oil self-sufficiency; Developing Asia shows considerable diversity
intensity of oil use in energy consumption; in oil self-sufficiency (Table 3.1, “Oil self-suffi-
energy intensity of GDP, both at market and at ciency” column): several countries are net oil
purchasing power parity exchange rates; and per exporters, but many more are totally reliant on
capita oil consumption. The oil self-sufficiency oil imports. In addition, its reliance on imported
index measures oil production less consumption oil has trended up through time: in 2003, 44.7%
in relation to oil consumption. Thus a value of of oil consumption was imported, compared with
-1 signifies that a country has no oil production just about 10% in the mid-1980s (Figure 3.3).
and is totally reliant on oil imports; a positive At the subregional level, South Asia is the
number means that a country is a net exporter. most reliant on imports followed by East Asia;
The intensity of oil use in energy consumption Southeast Asia has also become a net importer
index measures the share of oil in an economy’s as Indonesia’s production has failed to keep pace
primary energy consumption. If a country relies with consumption. Central Asia and the Pacific
only on oil to produce energy, the value of the are net oil exporters, though the position of the
index is 1; if no oil is used in producing its Pacific masks the complete reliance on imports
energy, the value is 0. of all countries but Papua New Guinea (and
The third and fourth indicators show a Timor-Leste, which is not included in the Inter-
measure of the energy intensity for an entire national Energy Annual 2003 figures due to lack
economy (energy consumption divided by GDP). of data). In Central Asia, the Kyrgyz Republic and
This measure is standardized on the energy Tajikistan are highly reliant on imports.
intensity of the G7 countries. For example, a value Vulnerability to rising oil prices depends not
of 2 would mean that the country in question just on oil self-sufficiency but also on the intensity
uses twice the energy as the G7 average per with which oil is used to produce energy. In
unit of GDP. This measure is presented for both the mid-1980s, oil met about 30% of developing
0.4 4.0
0.2
3.0
0.0
2.0
-0.2
1.0
-0.4
-0.6 0.0
-0.8 -1.0
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2003 1992 1995 1998 2001 2003
Developing Asia East Asia The Pacific Central Asia
Southeast Asia South Asia
Notes: 1. The oil self-sufficiency index is oil production less consumption, divided by consumption. No domestic oil production is equal
to -1.0. 2. Prior to 1992, Developing Asia excluded countries in Central Asia. 3. Before 1992, all Pacific countries were net oil importers; in
that year, Papua New Guinea became a net oil exporter.
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy Annual 2003, available: www.eia.doe.gov.
The challenge of higher oil prices 69
Subregion/Economy Oil self- Intensity of oil Energy intensity of GDP Oil consumption per
sufficiency use in energy Nominal PPP capita (barrels)
consumption
East Asia -0.600 0.310 3.188 0.907 2.4
China, People’s Rep. of -0.361 0.250 4.259 0.877 1.6
Hong Kong, China -1.000 0.628 0.739 0.573 13.9
Korea, Rep. of -0.999 0.520 1.891 1.138 16.5
Mongolia -1.000 0.257 10.453 2.677 1.8
Taipei,China -0.991 0.457 1.939 0.971 14.8
Southeast Asia -0.277 0.546 2.684 0.821 2.6
Cambodia -1.000 0.932 0.263 0.039 0.1
Indonesia 0.074 0.507 2.624 0.801 2.0
Lao People’s Dem. Rep. -1.000 0.117 3.149 0.608 0.2
Malaysia 0.648 0.445 2.959 1.205 7.5
Myanmar -0.512 0.364 2.496 0.332 0.2
Philippines -0.957 0.550 2.125 0.446 1.5
Singapore -0.988 0.888 2.523 2.143 60.5
Thailand -0.685 0.529 2.898 0.840 4.8
Viet Nam 0.632 0.460 3.304 0.648 1.0
South Asia -0.690 0.352 3.072 0.573 0.7
Afghanistan -1.000 0.533 - - 0.1
Bangladesh -0.919 0.288 1.553 0.301 0.2
Bhutan -1.000 0.121 3.866 0.972 0.5
India -0.649 0.343 3.230 0.588 0.8
Maldives -1.000 1.000 1.610 0.480 5.0
Nepal -1.000 0.500 1.363 0.225 0.2
Pakistan -0.817 0.383 3.439 0.729 0.8
Sri Lanka -1.007 0.846 1.425 0.338 1.5
Central Asia 1.811 0.210 13.175 3.456 3.5
Azerbaijan 1.664 0.415 11.789 2.714 5.5
Kazakhstan 3.689 0.216 8.987 2.654 5.4
Kyrgyz Republic -0.819 0.121 12.863 2.570 0.8
Tajikistan -0.986 0.190 21.996 4.683 1.4
Turkmenistan 1.542 0.224 9.143 2.867 6.0
Uzbekistan 0.015 0.148 32.550 6.225 2.2
The Pacific 0.667 0.742 1.690 0.513 1.5
Cook Islands -1.000 1.000 - - 7.9
Fiji Islands -1.000 0.754 1.590 0.722 4.4
Kiribati -1.000 1.000 0.829 0.234 0.8
Nauru -1.000 1.000 - - 27.7
Papua New Guinea 2.366 0.685 1.813 0.459 1.0
Samoa -1.000 0.768 1.179 0.321 2.1
Solomon Islands -1.000 1.000 1.542 0.412 1.0
Tonga -1.000 1.000 1.324 0.282 2.9
Vanuatu -1.000 1.000 0.619 0.245 1.1
Developing Asia -0.447 0.346 3.227 0.847 1.7
Non-oil exporters -0.654 0.342 3.118 0.805 1.7
Memorandum items
G7 -0.591 0.403 1.000 1.000 18.6
Japan -0.978 0.505 0.692 0.796 16.0
United States -0.561 0.395 1.192 1.153 25.1
- = data not available, PPP = purchasing power parity.
Notes: 1. The oil self-sufficiency index is oil production less consumption, divided by consumption; a positive number indicates self-
sufficiency. No domestic oil production is equal to -1.0. 2. Intensity of oil use in energy consumption is petroleum consumption divided
by energy consumption. 3. Energy intensity of GDP, for both nominal GDP (at market exchange rates) and GDP measured at purchasing
power parity, is expressed relative to the average of the G7 countries, which is normalized to 1.
Sources: Energy Information Administration. 2005. International Energy Annual 2003. Washington, DC, available: http://www.eia.doe.
gov/iea/; IMF. 2005. World Economic Outlook April database, available: http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2005/01/data/index.htm;
World Bank. 2005. World Development Indicators online database, available: http://devdata.worldbank.org/dataonline/.
70 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
Figure 3.4 Intensity of oil use in energy consumption, into GDP have risen in Southeast Asia while
1980–2003 South Asia and the Pacific have been on a flat to
1.0 slightly declining trend. The economies of Central
Asia have also as a whole become less energy
0.8 intensive, possibly because of changes in economic
structure during their transition to being more
0.6 market oriented.
In comparing developing Asia’s energy
0.4 intensity with other countries, it matters greatly
whether GDP is measured in nominal terms at
0.2 market exchange rates or in purchasing power
parity rates. In nominal market terms, developing
0.0 Asia consumes over three times as much energy
1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2003
as the G7 per unit of output. But in purchasing
Developing Asia East Asia
Southeast Asia South Asia power terms, developing Asia is less energy
The Pacific Central Asia intensive than the G7. Only countries that are
Notes: 1. Intensity of oil use is the share of petroleum in total major oil producers or refiners, or which have very
energy consumption. Oil is sole energy source at 1.0. 2. Prior to cold winters, are more energy intensive than the
1992, Developing Asia excluded countries in Central Asia. G7 average. A “true” picture of energy intensity in
Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy
Annual 2003, available: www.eia.doe.gov. developing Asia is likely to lie somewhere between
the nominal and purchasing power parity-adjusted
GDP measures. But it is highly likely that, for
Asia’s energy needs, or much the same as in 2003 identical activities, for example power production,
(Figure 3.4). However, the oil intensity of energy developing Asia is less energy efficient than
consumption is much more pronounced in some industrial countries.
countries than in others (Table 3.1, “Intensity The last column of Table 3.1 shows per capita
of oil use in energy consumption” column). A
notable feature is that small island economies are Figure 3.5 Energy intensity of GDP, 1980–2003
highly dependent on oil for their energy needs. (‘000 BTU per unit of real GDP)
Elsewhere, oil intensity is highest in Southeast 50 140
Asia and lowest in Central Asia and the PRC, due 45
right scale
135
to their use of alternatives, such as natural gas,
40 130
hydropower, and coal.
The energy intensity of GDP (Table 3.1, 35 125
“Energy intensity of GDP” columns) is affected 30 120
by several factors, including a country’s climate, 25 115
size, and stage of development as well as whether 20 110
it produces and refines oil. Countries that have
15 105
colder climates consume more energy, other
10 100
things being equal, while countries with a large 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2003
oil contribution to GDP are likely to be more
Developing Asia East Asia
energy intensive. The energy intensity of GDP Southeast Asia South Asia
also varies with income levels: across countries, it The Pacific Central Asia (right scale)
tends to be low for the poorest but then rises with
BTU = British thermal unit.
per capita income, before tapering off at higher Notes: 1. Energy intensity of GDP is energy consumption in BTU
income levels. These features of the relationship per US$ of GDP (in 2000 prices). 2. Prior to 1992, Developing
between energy use and real output (GDP) show Asia excluded countries in Central Asia. 3. Before 1992, all
Pacific countries were net oil importers; in that year, Papua
up in divergent patterns across developing Asia New Guinea became a net oil exporter.
(Figure 3.5). East Asia has become much less Source: Energy Information Administration, International Energy
energy intensive over time but the energy inputs Annual 2003, available: www.eia.doe.gov.
The challenge of higher oil prices 71
impact on import bills of higher oil prices is Table 3.3 Export growth required to pay for a 75%
substantial. As a net oil-exporting region, Central rise in fuel prices
Asia will potentially enjoy larger net export
receipts from higher oil prices. Subregion/Economy Export offset, percentage
point change
At the country level, Mongolia and Tajikistan
seem to be the most exposed to the risk of a East Asia
China, People’s Rep. of 2.3
sharp rise in import fuel bills. Although potential Hong Kong, China 4.5
costs could be exaggerated by the data used here, Korea, Rep. of 10.5
other sources too suggest large potential impacts: Mongolia 16.5
6.8% of GDP for Tajikistan and 9.8% of GDP Taipei,China 5.3
for Mongolia (International Trade Centre 2005). Southeast Asia
Cambodia 4.5
Potential impacts are also large for the Maldives, Indonesia -9.8
Pacific island economies (except Papua New Lao People’s Dem. Rep. 11.3
Guinea and Timor-Leste), Kyrgyz Republic, and Malaysia -3.0
Singapore, ranging from 4.5% to 9.0% of GDP. Myanmar -6.8
Philippines 6.8
Pakistan, Philippines, Nepal, and Sri Lanka face Singapore 2.3
more measured impacts of about 3.0–4.5% of Thailand 5.3
GDP. For other countries, including the PRC and Viet Nam -5.3
India, potential costs are smaller but by no means South Asia
insignificant. For developing Asia as a whole, Afghanistan 6.8
Bangladesh 6.0
imported fuel costs could rise by 1.5% of GDP,
India 15.8
but this is after subtracting possible gains by oil- Maldives 8.3
exporting countries. Nepal 26.3
Another way to measure exposure to higher Pakistan 18.0
Sri Lanka 8.3
oil prices is to identify by how much exports
The Pacific
would need to grow to pay for higher import fuel
Fiji Islands 6.0
bills. The data in Table 3.3 show the percentage Papua New Guinea -5.3
point growth in exports that would be needed Average 3.0
to offset the impact of a 75% rise in the fuel
Note: Based on country averages for 2001–2003.
import bill on the trade balance. Again, it should
Source: Adapted from World Trade Organization. 2005. World
be noted that to the extent that oil import costs Trade Report. Appendix Table 7, p. 25.
have risen relative to exports since 2001–2003, the
estimates in Table 3.3 may understate the ratios
that would result from use of more recent data. might be met by a drawdown of foreign exchange
Also, this is, once more, a partial calculation and reserves. But other countries face more difficult
so impacts should be interpreted as “potential” circumstances. Countries with large external debts,
rather than likely. meager reserves, and limited borrowing capacity
The estimates in Table 3.3 bring out several could face financing difficulties.
points. For many net oil-importing Asian These estimates of the potential suscepti-
countries, the growth in exports that would bility of import bills and trade balances to higher
be needed to pay for a 75% rise in the cost oil prices omit many factors that will affect the
of imported oil is potentially large. The most eventual impacts. Oil product prices tend to move
pronounced impacts are in Mongolia and in some in step with crude prices but the correlation is not
South Asian countries. Normally, such adjustments exact. To some degree, therefore, susceptibility
would occur through a depreciation of the will depend on the particular product mix of oil
domestic currency and a shift of resources from consumption. Producers and consumers will also
nontraded to traded goods activity. Even if higher adjust to higher oil product prices, as well as to
prices were not sustained and these estimates were changes in income, exchange rates, and interest
halved, temporary financing needs could still be rates. Important indirect effects will also follow
significant. In some countries, financing needs from impacts on major trading partners and
The challenge of higher oil prices 73
Box 3.1 How higher oil prices impact on growth, inflation, and financial balances
from policy responses to changing circumstances. prices on growth that are described in Box 3.1.
Box 3.1 summarizes the different ways in which Any estimate of the impact of higher oil prices
higher oil prices can affect an economy. on growth is necessarily contingent on a large
number of assumptions about the nature of the
The Impact of higher oil prices on growth “shock,” underlying economic structures and
Numerical simulation methods are needed behaviors, and policy responses. In Table 3.4, the
to unravel the kinds of impacts of higher oil results of simulations of the impact of higher oil
74 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
Table 3.4 GDP and budget balance impacts of a rise in the oil price to $70 per barrel, 2006 (percentage points of GDP)
prices on growth and fiscal balances for selected assumed that higher oil prices start in the third
developing countries in Asia are summarized. quarter of 2005 and are sustained through the
These simulations have been conducted using the fourth quarter of 2006. All other factors are held
Oxford Economic Forecasting (OEF) model. In the constant. In reality of course, many changes occur
OEF model, higher oil prices squeeze aggregate together, so these calculations are indicative and
demand and supply for net oil importers. Balance- do not constitute forecasts.
of-payments adjustments occur through the real The simulated impacts reported in Table 3.4 are
exchange rate. Indirect impacts are captured sizable for some countries. The OEF model simu-
through the effect of higher oil prices on trading lations suggest that Philippines, Singapore, and
partners’ growth, which affects exports. Cuts in Thailand are most susceptible to slower growth if
investment may result in a smaller capital stock higher oil prices endure through 2006. All these
and permanent output losses, but growth should countries are large net oil importers, but negative
later return to its original trajectory. The model impacts on growth are mitigated by expanded
assumes that public sector savings or deficits fiscal deficits. In the Philippines and Thailand,
adjust passively to the hike in oil prices, and that fiscal deficits increase by nearly 1 percentage point
inflationary pressures are addressed through of GDP compared to the baseline. These fiscal
higher interest rates. The focus here, however, is impacts reflect automatic tax and expenditure
on possible short-run impact effects and not on adjustments as incomes and prices change, and do
more protracted adjustment processes. not take account of specific oil subsidy schemes,
In Table 3.4, the results of the “GDP growth, such as the substantial expenditures incurred over
OEF” column show percentage point differences the last 18 months in a number of countries.
in GDP growth for 2006 resulting from a $17/bbl Simulated impacts on output growth in the
hike in the price of oil over this Update’s $53/bbl PRC and India are smaller, but not insignificant.
baseline assumption, essentially a rise to $70/bbl. Although oil dependency is low in the PRC, the
The results in the “Budget balance, OEF” column model traces relatively large negative growth
show percentage point changes in government impacts through external trade. Simulated fiscal
budget deficits measured relative to GDP. It is impacts in the PRC are modest. The impact on
The challenge of higher oil prices 75
India’s GDP growth is broadly consistent with its oil and drawing on the results of an associated
dependency. In India, growth is shielded through a background paper (IMF 2005), IMF revisited
large measure of fiscal stabilization, and the public the likely impact of higher oil prices on growth.
sector deficit expands by 0.9% of GDP in response. This update occurred in a context where the
The OEF model suggests that higher oil prices impact of higher oil prices on global growth in
would substantially reduce growth in Indonesia 2004 had been muted (Box 3.2). IMF considers a
and Malaysia. Indonesia became a net oil importer temporary rise in the price of oil to $80/bbl from
in 2004, but its dependency on oil imports is still a baseline of $46. In real terms, and measured
low. As Malaysia is a net oil exporter, it benefits in terms of annual averages, prices at this level
directly from higher prices. The simulations would be close to the historical high of 1979.
suggest that any benefits accruing to oil producers For developing Asia, IMF reports that output
are significantly outweighed by indirect impacts losses could be about 0.8 percentage point of
on exports as growth slows in major trading GDP. Adjusted for differences in the scale of the
partners. These calculations assume, though, that assumed shocks, this estimate is substantially
additional fiscal revenues accruing from higher oil lower than the OEF model impacts and, indeed,
prices are added to government saving. If, instead, those of IMF (2000) and the International Energy
governments target the deficit and recycle oil Agency (2004). But when IMF assumes that
revenues, a smaller negative impact on output is higher prices are sustained over a longer period,
likely to follow. For Malaysia, the negative impact as more recent news emanating from the oil
on growth could be as small as 0.6 percentage markets would seem to suggest, impacts rise to
point of growth if the entire fiscal windfall is 1.3 percentage points of GDP.
recycled. For Indonesia, the windfall is smaller, There is clearly uncertainty about the likely
but could reduce the potential impact on growth impact of higher oil prices. Much depends on
from 1.1 to 0.9 percentage point. Again, these assumptions both about the size and duration of
calculations make no allowance for the cost of the shock, and about how various actors respond.
fuel subsidies. For example, producer behavior in the OEF model
Measured in terms of its oil self-sufficiency implies both a rapid pass-through of higher oil
and oil intensity of energy consumption, Korea is prices to final goods, and consumer adjustment to
highly vulnerable to higher oil prices (Table 3.1 changes in current income. However, competitive
above). Korea’s oil dependency and oil intensity of pressures and weaker demand growth may slow
energy profile is very similar to that of the Phil- or limit the pass-through, and if consumers
ippines and therefore it might be expected that and producers believe that higher prices will
similar impacts are likely. However, compared to be temporary, they are more likely to spread
the Philippines and other oil-dependent countries, adjustments out.
the estimated reduction in growth for Korea Despite this uncertainty, there is a consensus
is small. The reason is that the model predicts that, for developing Asia, the impact of higher
substantial import compression, showing Korean oil prices will be negative. Drawing together the
imports’ greater sensitivity to the real exchange strands of evidence presented here, it seems that
rate following the rise in oil prices. Impacts are oil prices at about $70/bbl through to the end
also moderated through more expansive fiscal of 2006 could cut growth by over 1 percentage
accommodation in Korea. point in a number of countries. Some countries
IMF (2000) has also estimated the possible in Southeast Asia and South Asia could see
impact on growth of an oil price shock. These growth trimmed by the most but there are
results have been used as a basis for imputing offsetting positive factors that vary from country
the numbers shown in the “GDP growth, IMF to country and that will influence actual growth
MULTIMOD” column of Table 3.4. For most outcomes (see Part 2 of this Update). The point
countries, the OEF and IMF estimates are broadly bears repeating that developing Asia is now better
similar, once allowance is made for the fact that positioned to absorb large shocks than it was
Indonesia is now a net oil importer. at the time of the previous oil price shocks (see
In its April 2005 World Economic Outlook, ADO 2004 Update, Part 3): external payments
76 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
positions are more secure, monetary policy is ways. For net oil importers, the challenges posed
more credible, fiscal strength is greater, and by higher oil prices will differ depending on their
economic structures are more flexible and capable macroeconomic conditions, available financial
of adjusting more quickly than before. Although resources, degree of access to international
the region’s appetite for oil continues to grow, the capital markets, impact on trading partners,
oil intensity of output is drifting lower. economic structure, and fuel-pricing policies.
In the next section, policy responses to higher For net oil exporters, structural factors will also
oil prices are considered. be important, including their oil reserves, the
ownership structure of the oil sector, oil taxation,
Policy responses to higher oil prices the government’s financial position, and the public
sector’s absorptive capacity. Matters are more
No “one size fits all” response to higher oil prices complicated still, for all countries, because there
exists. Across developing Asia, circumstances vary is often a considerable measure of uncertainty
greatly and countries need to respond in different about how long higher prices are likely to endure.
The challenge of higher oil prices 77
One small benefit of such uncertainty, though, education and health combined. Raising subsidies
is that it will generally commend a measured or reducing excise taxes as oil prices rise creates
response, which can be reversed without incurring deeper distortions, too. Subsidies underwrite
large costs. Looking to the long term, policies fuel and energy inefficiency, retard the devel-
that influence oil consumption and use must be opment and diffusion of cleaner technologies,
consistent with broader development objectives. and contribute to harming the environment. The
rent created by subsidies also encourages fuel
Oil subsidies and taxation smuggling and other illegal activities.
Many governments across developing Asia Rising fiscal deficits, driven in part by growing
directly subsidize oil products, including kerosene, fuel subsidies, have led some countries to scale
liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), and, generally down or withdraw subsidies. For example, on
to a lesser extent, diesel and gasoline. In some 12 July, having incurred fiscal costs of about
countries retail prices are openly subsidized and $2.2 billion over an 18-month period, the
in others they are regulated or controlled through Government of Thailand announced that all
state-owned distribution channels. Indirect fuel subsidies would be removed by February
subsidies are also common, and are seen where 2006, and immediately ended all diesel subsidies.
products that have a high oil content, principally Malaysia’s Government, which had earlier
electric power, are provided at prices below their suspended excise taxes on gasoline and diesel,
true cost. Even in countries where there are has now declared its intention to scrap subsidies
no open or indirect subsidies, taxation is often on these two products. Malaysia has adopted a
modest. Excise and customs taxes on oil products graduated approach and has so far lifted gasoline
are a potentially important source of fiscal revenue and diesel prices three times in 2005.
that need to be maintained at an appropriate level In Indonesia, too, diesel subsidies were cut
both for budget revenue and the proper long-term earlier in 2005, but subsequent increases in the
allocation of the country’s investment capital. In price of crude oil mean that expected budgetary
the recent run-up in oil prices, however, some costs of all subsidies have swollen and now exceed
countries have markedly reduced such taxes in an their 2005 appropriation. Other countries have
attempt to protect consumers. problems. In Bangladesh, the state-owned oil
Box 3.3 summarizes the experience of eight distributor, Bangladesh Petroleum Corporation,
countries with fuel subsidies. Subsidies in these is accumulating very large operating losses while
countries have so far limited the pass-through from the oil bill is putting pressure on foreign exchange
higher crude oil prices to the retail prices of various reserves. In India, the federal Government has
oil products and therefore to final goods. This has expressed concern about recently announced
certainly helped contain the inflationary impacts of losses at major refining and oil marketing
rising crude prices, but in the absence of detailed companies. Without doubt, similar pressures
study very little is known about exactly who are being felt in other countries that are heavily
benefits from these subsidies and by what amount. reliant on imported fuel while selling it domes-
Beyond concerns about the impact of higher tically at below imported cost.
fuel prices on the general population, the rationale Removing fuel subsidies clearly meets with
for oil subsidies and discretionary increases in formidable political resistance in some countries.
subsidies is not particularly clear. Subsidies do not But if subsidies are retained and higher oil prices
eliminate the negative effects of higher oil prices do not recede, their fiscal costs will mount. One
on potential output. Demand must still adjust approach might be to remove subsidies first on
to the deterioration in the external payments those fuel types on which the poor do not depend.
position. Subsidies also add to the fiscal burden In most countries in developing Asia, gasoline
and represent an opportunity cost (in terms of the subsidies are not provided or are relatively small,
alternative uses to which scarce fiscal resources but, equally, taxation is often relatively modest
could have been put). In Indonesia, for example, given the income levels of gasoline consumers.
the fiscal cost of oil product subsidies in 2005 Although diesel subsidies are widespread, and the
will be larger than budgetary allocations for poor do not directly consume much diesel, the
78 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
Box 3.3 (continued)
Indonesia rising subsidies. Diesel prices were gradual moves to reduce the sub-
Indonesia became a net oil also lifted by 18.5% to RM1.28 per sidies. First, the subsidy on gasoline
importer in 2004. While it imports liter, except for fishers, who will was removed in November 2004.
at market prices, state-owned Per- receive increased subsidies to offset In March 2005, diesel prices were
tamina sells petroleum products the price rise. Even as this is the raised by B3 per liter. Then, the
to consumers at subsidized prices. fourth increase since October 2004 diesel subsidy was reduced to B1.30
As of April 2005, the Government (and the third this year), prices in per liter in June and eventually
owed Pertamina about $2.6 billion Malaysia remain among the lowest removed on 12 July 2005. Never-
in fuel subsidies, putting pressure in Southeast Asia. theless, the Government still spent
on the company’s cash flow and Fuel subsidies cost the Gov- $2.2 billion in 18 months on fuel
on its ability to pay for imported ernment $1.3 billion last year, and, subsidies (about 0.9% of GDP over
petroleum products. This has despite the latest price increase, this period).
affected oil supplies to the country, are expected to cost $1.7 billion in Subsidies on diesel alone cost
which now faces petroleum 2005. In addition, tax exemptions around B300 million a day during
shortages. Recent parliamentary on gasoline will cost the Gov- the spending peak. At present, the
delays in approving the Govern- ernment an additional $2.1 billion, oil fund is more than B80 billion in
ment’s revised budget have further bringing this year’s subsidy bill to deficit. The Government still con-
delayed partial payment of fuel sub- $3.8 billion (about 2.9% of GDP). tinues to subsidize the price of LPG,
sidies to the company. at a cost of around B500 million
Even though petroleum product Nepal ($12.6 million) per month.
prices (except kerosene) were In 2003, the Government created
increased by 29% in February, an independent committee to set Viet Nam
the Government estimates that fuel prices, following heavy losses Viet Nam is Southeast Asia’s third-
the subsidy bill will balloon to at the state-owned oil monopoly, largest oil producer, though it
$12.5 billion (about 4.7% of GDP) Nepal Oil Corporation. While the spends more than half of its crude
by the end of the year if current committee was mandated to adjust export revenues on importing
crude oil prices persist. Last year, prices in line with international petroleum products since it has no
subsidies cost the Government trends, it has refrained from doing major refineries. In addition, the
$7.4 billion (2.9% of GDP). In the so, perhaps in the hope that price Government subsidizes retail prices,
absence to date of further cuts in swings will ultimately cancel them- spending about 2% of GDP on this
subsidies, government intervention selves out. The last price adjustment in 2004.
is reduced to pushing the popu- was only made in January 2005, In order to reduce subsidies and
lation to limit consumption. Car and consequently the oil monopoly curb smuggling into Cambodia
owners are also encouraged to use has been suffering losses of over and the PRC, in August 2005 the
expensive, nonsubsidized premium NRs500 million a month. In the Government, for the third time,
fuel, which currently accounts second half of FY2005, its losses increased diesel, gasoline, and
for only 4% of domestic gasoline reached $29.4 million. If domestic kerosene prices. In spite of this,
consumption. Television stations prices are not adjusted, its losses the Government is still expected to
now close at 12 midnight, in a for FY2006 may exceed FY2004’s spend about $350 million on sub-
move intended to curtail nighttime $56 million (about 0.8% of GDP). sidies in the second half of 2005.
energy consumption. In the first half, oil importers lost
Thailand $440 million, and so subsidies are
Malaysia In the wake of rising oil prices and expected to cost $790 million, or
On 1 August, Malaysia increased inflationary pressures, oil subsidies 1.6% of GDP in 2005. The Gov-
prices of premium gasoline by that draw on the oil stabilization ernment is fully covering these
6.6% to RM1.62 per liter, regular fund started on 1 January 2004. losses.
gasoline by 6.8% to RM1.58 per However, as sustained high oil
liter, and LPG by 3.6% to RM1.45 prices began rapidly to deplete Sources: National press reports,
per kilogram, in an effort to cut the fund, the Government made July–August 2005.
80 Asian Development Outlook 2005 Update
Box figure Comparison of retail fuel prices in Asia (as of November 2004, US cents per liter)
98 57 27 27 54 119
Retail fuel prices of Luxembourg = approx. minimum entrance level for 10 European Union accession countries.
Retail fuel prices in the United States = average cost-covering retail prices including industry margin, VAT, and approximately
10 US cents for the two road funds (federal and state). This fuel price, as it has no other specific fuel taxes, may be considered
the international minimum benchmark for a nonsubsidized road transport policy.
Crude oil prices on the world market (Brent at Rotterdam).
Box 3.4 (continued)
minimum level for the 10 European at that time appear to have been cost recovery in transportation fuel
Union accession countries. Only two substantially subsidized. For diesel, (including some minimal taxation)
economies—Hong Kong, China and five countries charged less than the has likely been heavily clouded since
Korea—priced around or above this indicative crude cost—Turkmenistan, then.
benchmark. Myanmar, Indonesia, Malaysia, and Across Asia, the most heavily
For gasoline, the bulk of coun- Azerbaijan. As with gasoline, all subsidized oil products are not
tries (18) charged the green line countries that did not recover crude transportation fuels but products
benchmark price or more while an costs were oil producers. It is notable such as kerosene and LPG used
additional six charged the green line that another 14 countries did not by the poor, mainly for cooking.
price excluding taxes of 10 US cents price to the green line standard, i.e., (However, data on the structure and
per liter. Whether at the margin the the bulk of countries provided sub- magnitude of these subsidies are not
green line prices would represent sidies for diesel. readily available.) Kerosene, in par-
cost recovery in a country would Since November 2004, crude ticular, is heavily subsidized in many
depend on local circumstances, prices have risen considerably, but countries, since it often accounts for
especially refining industry efficiency many of developing Asia’s govern- a significant part of poor households’
and national distribution costs. ments have not fully passed this expenditure. For example, in India
Only a small fraction of crude costs through to retail prices. They have and Nepal, kerosene absorbs about
are covered in Turkmenistan and extensively relied on increases in 2% of total household spending
Myanmar while in November 2004 direct subsidies, cuts in petroleum among the poorest urban households
Indonesia’s gasoline prices might just taxation, and losses by state-owned (UNDP/ESMAP 2005). If kerosene
have covered crude costs. Uzbekistan, petroleum companies to avoid full prices increased significantly, poor
Malaysia, and Azerbaijan covered price adjustment. Thus the very households in these countries and
crude costs, but gasoline prices mixed picture for November in elsewhere would be at risk.
smooth out the negative impacts on prices and As a consequence of foreign exchange inflows, an
potential output, and are likely to face more appreciation of the real exchange rate is likely to
difficult economic adjustments. In the absence of follow, squeezing activity in the non-oil, traded
sufficient foreign reserves or external financing goods sector—the so-called “Dutch disease.”
opportunities, a deteriorating trade balance must Sterilized intervention may slow the process
be accommodated by reductions in domestic and help contain domestic inflation, but cannot
consumption and investment. In such cases, stop it. If the increased oil income seems to be
a depreciating exchange rate will facilitate temporary, governments need to exercise caution
adjustments of domestic demand and will help about expanding expenditure programs. Even
move resources from the nontraded to the traded if the gains look like being more permanent,
goods sector. However, in poor countries with the authorities need a plan to use them over
large external debts, additional external financing a medium- to long-term horizon, integrate
assistance on a grant basis or on highly conces- them within a broader expenditure planning
sionary terms may be needed as a temporary framework, and ensure that spending decisions
measure to help fill payments gaps. pass standard tests that guard against waste.
Higher oil prices also pose challenges to net oil Oil-exporting countries may also consider
exporters. Much will depend on the distribution the benefits of making a precautionary reduction
of income gains, and whether the non-oil sector of their debts; of saving in oil stabilization funds
faces higher costs. In countries where oil revenues held in foreign currency assets (to finance future
are narrowly concentrated, the overall impact of development expenditures); and of targeting a
higher oil prices on aggregate demand may be non-oil fiscal deficit that would limit macro-
negative, but where increased oil incomes spill economic strain. These are some of the issues that
over into the broader economy, private demand the net oil exporters in Central Asia and Pacific,
may expand and generate inflationary pressures. for example, will continue to grapple with.
The challenge of higher oil prices 83
Appendix table Share in final oil consumption, 2002, selected countries, by sector and by product (%)
aOthers consist mainly of residual fuel-oil and naphtha, and small amounts of crude oil and natural gas (predominantly used by industry).
Source: International Energy Agency, available: www.iea.org.
Outlook
ASIAN DEVELOPMENT
2005
Update
Statistical appendix
Statistical notes and tables
T
he statistical appendix presents three Hong Kong, China; Lao People’s Democratic
selected economic indicators: gross Republic; Samoa; Thailand; and Democratic
domestic product (GDP) growth (A1), Republic of Timor-Leste. Some countries record
inflation (A2), and current account balance as the majority of their accounts on a fiscal year
a percentage of GDP (A3) for 42 developing basis (see figure), with some of their accounts
member countries (DMCs) of the Asian Devel- recorded on a calendar year basis.
opment Bank (ADB). The DMCs are grouped into Regional and subregional averages for
five subregions: Central Asia, East Asia, South DMCs are provided for the three economic
Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Pacific. indicator tables. Data for Afghanistan, Myanmar,
These tables contain historical data from and Nauru are excluded in the computation
2002 to 2004 and forecasts for 2005 and 2006. of subregional averages due to measurement
Update forecasts are compared with forecasts problems. Where a given year has missing data,
provided in ADO 2005. For countries where regional and subregional averages are computed
Update forecasts are not available, projections are on the basis of the available information only.
from ADO 2005. Levels of gross national income (GNI) in
Historical data are obtained from official current US$ using the World Bank Atlas method
sources, statistical publications, secondary publi- are used as annual weights to calculate the
cations, other working papers, and internal regional and subregional averages. The GNI data
documents of ADB, International Monetary were obtained from the World Bank Group WDI
Fund (IMF), and World Bank. Data in the Data Query (http://devdata.worldbank.org/data-
tables are reported either on a calendar year query/). The same weights used in ADO 2005
or fiscal year basis. The DMCs that record are applied in the computation of regional and
most of their accounts on a calendar year basis subregional averages. Data for 2003, as the most
(except government finance data, which are recent data available, are used as weights for 2004,
reported on a fiscal year basis) are: Cook Islands, 2005, and 2006. The GNI data, in current US$,
for three of the DMCs are unavailable, namely Table A2: Inflation (% per year). Except for
Cook Islands; Taipei,China; and Tuvalu. For these India, which reports the wholesale price index;
economies, weights were estimated using GDP at Kiribati and Solomon Islands, which use the retail
current prices. price index; and the Federated States of Micronesia,
The following paragraphs examine the tables which uses the implicit GDP deflator, annual
in closer detail. inflation rates presented are based on consumer
Table A1: Growth Rate of GDP (% per year). price indexes. For most DMCs, the reported
This shows annual growth rates of GDP valued inflation rates represent period averages except for
at constant market prices, factor costs, or basic Bhutan and Cook Islands, which use end-of-period
prices. GDP at market prices is the aggregation data. The data for Singapore is on a calendar year
of the value added of all resident producers at basis, yet the base year used for the computation of
producers’ prices including taxes less subsidies inflation rates is November 1997–October 1998. For
on imports plus all nondeductible value-added Sri Lanka, inflation is calculated using the new Sri
or similar taxes. Factor cost measures differ from Lanka consumer price index, which measures all-
market price measures in that they exclude taxes island price movements and uses an updated basket
on production and include subsidies. Basic price of goods with 1995–1997 as the base period. The
valuation is the factor cost plus some taxes on consumer price indexes of the following countries
production, such as property and payroll taxes, are for a given city or group of consumers only:
and less some subsidies, such as labor-related Afghanistan is for Kabul, Cambodia is for Phnom
subsidies but not product-related subsidies. Most Penh, Kiribati is for Tarawa, Palau is for Koror state,
DMCs use constant market price valuation. South Marshall Islands is for Majuro, Solomon Islands is
Asian countries predominantly use constant for Honiara, and Nepal is for urban consumers.
factor costs, including Bhutan, India, Nepal, Table A3: Current Account Balance (% of
Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, while Maldives’ GDP GDP). The values on the current account balance,
valuation is at basic prices. Among the Pacific which is the sum of the balance of trade for
countries, Fiji Islands, Solomon Islands, and merchandise, net trade in services and factor
Tuvalu employ constant factor cost valuation. income, and net transfers, are divided by GDP at
For Hong Kong, China, the computations of real current prices in US$. In the case of Bangladesh,
GDP and sector growth rates are based on volume Cambodia, Lao People’s Democratic Republic, and
indexes; GDP sector growth rates for Solomon Viet Nam, official transfers are excluded from the
Islands are based on GDP production indexes. current account balance.
Statistical appendix 89