Thayer Consultancy Background Brief:

ABN # 65 648 097 123

China: By Land and By Sea –
Vietnam, Japan and the UK
Carlyle A. Thayer
February 9, 2021

We request your assessment of (1) China's deployment of surface-to-air missiles near

its border with Vietnam and (2) the recent joint statement by Japan and the United
Kingdom.
Q1. According to South China Sea Chronicle Initiative, recent satellite imagery
reveals a Chinese surface-to-air missile installation about 20km from the Vietnamese
border. (see: https://twitter.com/TheSCSCI/status/1356987577354514432). Its
purpose appears to be guarding an adjacent airstrip, as well as another helicopter base
40km further north. What is the implication of this? Is it to increase pressure in the
border region or defensive in nature?
ANSWER: The deployment of surface to air missiles (SAMs) near military facilities is
standard operating procedure for armed forces, including the People’s Liberation
Army. It is defensive in nature and designed to target enemy aircraft flying at high
altitudes. According to reports, the SAMs were deployed to protect a helicopter base
being constructed nearby. The SAMs are approximately 20 kilometres from the China-
Vietnam border.
Q2. Four ministers from Japan and United Kingdom this week voiced serious
concern about the situation in the South China Sea, opposed any unilateral attempts
to change the status quo, in an apparent reference to China's maritime expansion. Is
this the signal that Japan and UK will step up their activities to challenge China’s
maritime claims in the South China Sea?
ANSWER: Yes, it is a clear message to their allies as well as China that Japan and the
United Kingdom will cooperate more closely in the post-BREXIT era. Both Japan and
the United Kingdom are treaty allies of the United States.
China’s new law on the Coast Guard, which authorizes the use of armed force and the
destruction of foreign-made structures in waters under China’s jurisdiction, has major
implications for the Japanese administered Senkaku islands claimed by China. For
several years now China has been engaged in provocative air and maritime intrusions
into Japanese waters. The new law on the China Coast Guard provides a legal pretext
for China’s first use of force in any confrontation with Japanese maritime law
enforcement agency vessels and Japanese fishermen.
Q3. UK’s HMS Queen Elizabeth is likely to be deployed to the South China Sea in its
first operational mission. If so, what message will it send to China and the region?
 2

ANSWER: The United Kingdom has a long-standing obligation to defend peninsula

Malaysia and Singapore under the 1971 Five Power Defence Arrangements that also
includes Australia and New Zealand. All five states are members of the multilateral
Commonwealth of Nations.
The current British government headed, by Prime Minister Boris Johnson, has adopted
a Global Asia policy now that the United Kingdom is no longer a member of the
European Union. Johnson wants the UK to play a global role with priority to the Indo-
Pacific region because of the importance of trade and other economic linkages. The
UK, therefore, has a vital interest in keeping the sea lines of communication through
the South China Sea free and open.
The UK has expressed an interest in joining the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-
Pacific Partnership as well as the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue Forum, or Quad, with
the United States, Japan, India and Australia.
British warships can be expected to visit the region more frequently and exercise with
friendly littoral states. In 2019, Australia’s then defence minister welcomed the
deployment more militarily capable partners, like the United Kingdom, to the region.
In recent years, the Royal Navy has deployed major warships to transit the South China
Sea to demonstrate the UK’s commitment to freedom of navigation. The UK is
underscoring its national interest by sending it largest and most powerful warship, the
HMS Queen Elizabeth aircraft carrier to the Indian Ocean and South China Sea. It can
be expected that warships from the Indian, French, Australia, the Netherlands and
United States navies will join it for part of this journey and conduct exercises with it.
The deployment of the HMS Queen Elizabeth will send a powerful signal to China that
the United Kingdom is ready to join a growing coalition of democratic like-minded
states to push back against China’s illegal maritime claims in order to protect freedom
of navigation and overflight.

Suggested citation: Carlyle A. Thayer, “China: By Land and By Sea – Vietnam, Japan
and the UK,” Thayer Consultancy Background Brief, February 9, 2021. All background
briefs are posted on Scribd.com (search for Thayer). To remove yourself from the
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Thayer Consultancy provides political analysis of current regional security issues and
other research support to selected clients. Thayer Consultancy was officially
registered as a small business in Australia in 2002.