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Volume 11, Issue 5, May 2020, pp. 476-485, Article ID: IJM_11_05_045
Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/ijm/issues.asp?JType=IJM&VType=11&IType=5
Journal Impact Factor (2020): 10.1471 (Calculated by GISI) www.jifactor.com
ISSN Print: 0976-6502 and ISSN Online: 0976-6510
DOI: 10.34218/IJM.11.5.2020.045
ABSTRACT
The main purpose of this research paper is to explore and understand the nature
of association and the possible existence of a short run and long run relationship
between US Dollar, EURO, British Pound and Japanese Yen. To find out the
relationship among currencies USD/INR, EUR/INR, GBP/INR and JPY/INR pairs are
considered. The main idea is to know how these selected indicators are related to
each other. The daily basis 2781 observations for all four variables from year 2007 to
2018 are taken into consideration. Data are collected from website of Reserve Bank of
India. The stationarity of time series is checked and differentiated as per requirement.
Johansen cointegration test to know the long run relationship between variables is
used. The result shows that there is no cointegration equation among the variables.
The short run relationship is examined with help of Vector Autoregression (VAR)
model and the short run relationship within different lags of variables has been
identified. The correlation among variables has been examined with help of
correlation matrix and Granger cause test is also used to understand the causal effect.
Key words: Cointegration, Vector Autoregression, Correlation, Currencies
Cite this Article: Rajesh Sadhwani, Cointegration Analysis of Selected Currency
Pairs Traded in Indian Foreign Exchange Market. International Journal of
Management, 11 (5), 2020, pp. 476-485.
http://www.iaeme.com/IJM/issues.asp?JType=IJM&VType=11&IType=5
1. INTRODUCTION
Considering the high volatility in currency markets it becomes very important to understand
the relationship between the different currencies. All currencies offers different level of risk
and return in certain market conditions, it performs differently from each other. This study
proposes to explore the relationship between the currencies. The paper tries to understand the
long run and short run relationship between the variables. Study considers the selected major
currencies traded in Indian financial markets. We have considered the selected four currencies
considering the ease of trading on exchanges, liquidity etc.. to all the type of hedgers, trader
such as corporates, high net worth individuals, domestic and foreign institutional investors
and all other market participants. The performance of the variables can be understood with the
help of following graph.
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
2. LITRATURE REVIEW
To understand and examine the long run relationship between the variables cointegration test
is been used by many central bankers and researchers. Jose A. Lopez (1999) examined the
cointegration between the foreign exchange rates for different time period; he concluded the
relationship between currencies changes over a period of time and relationship is also affected
by central banks activities. Cointegration analyses of exchange rates in foreign exchange
market were also checked by Chinese researcher between selected pair of currencies. He
identified the long and short run relationship among them. Recursive cointegration analysis
was used to examine the relation between foreign exchange markets by Mei-Se Chien and
other two researchers. Gupta and Agarwal in 2011 examined the correlation between the
Indian stock market and five other major Asian economies and found a weak correlation
among the stock exchanges. This proved to have benefits of diversification to institutional and
international investors. Similarly Sharma and Bodla in 2011 studied the linkages between
Indian, Pakistan and Sri Lankan stock exchanges. The outcome suggested that Indian stock
exchange Granger cause the Karachi Stock Exchange of Pakistan and the Colombo Stock
Exchange of Sri Lanka. In similar fashion Ismail Aktar has done a study on Co-movement
between Stock Markets of Turkey, Russia and Hungary. The study investigated the long run
relationship and Granger Causality between Turkish, Russian and Hungarian stock indices for
the period of January 5, 2000 to October 22, 2008. A study was done by Michalis Glezakos,
Anna Merika & Haralambos Kaligosfiris on, “Interdependence of Major World Stock
Exchanges: How is the Athens Stock Exchange Affected?” The paper investigates and
examines the short and long-run relationships between major world financial markets with
particular attention to the Greek stock exchange. Paper covered the data from 2000 to 2010
using monthly data. Murali Batareddy in 2012, Hoque in 2007 and Ibrahim 2005 found that
the US market has an impact on the Asian markets. Sam Agyei Ampomah in 2011 examined
the nature and extent of linkages among African stock markets and the relationships between
the regional and global stock markets. Prof. Ritesh Patel paper published in 2012 examined
the causal relationship among equity markets to better understand how shocks in one market
are transmitted to other markets. He also examined the causal relationship, comovement and
dependency among equity markets to understand shocks in one market are transmitted to
other markets. More recently in 2015 Thangamuthu Mohanasundaram and Parthasarathy
Karthikeyan examined thelong run and short run relationship between stock-market indices of
South Africa, India and the USA. The paper applied the granger cause test. After testing the
Granger cause relationship, the existence of a long run and short run relationship is tested.
The long run relationships among the stock market indices were analysed, following the
Johansen and Juselius multivariate cointegration test. The outcome suggested the absence of
cointegrating equation among variables. The vector auto regression suggested the short run
relationship among variables.
3. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1. Research Gap
Most of the research is carried out to study the relationship between different assets classes
and currencies of various developed countries etc... Hence we have examined the relationship
between endogenous variables in Indian context. This will be helpful for all types of
participants in Indian forex market.
3.2. Objectives
The main objective of the research is to understand the long run and short run relationship
between variables, also to check if any of it is useful to forecast other variables within the
group.
EURO GBP
100 110
90 100
80 90
70 80
60 70
50 60
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
USD YEN
70 80
65
70
60
55 60
50 50
45
40
40
35 30
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Figure 2 (a) Time plot of EURO/INR, GBP/INR, USD/INR and JPY/INR pairs at level
DEURO DGBP
4 4
3 2
2
0
1
-2
0
-4
-1
-2 -6
-3 -8
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
DUSD DYEN
3 4
3
2
2
1 1
0 0
-1
-1
-2
-2 -3
07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
Figure 2 (b) Time plot of first order differencing on EURO/INR, GBP/INR, USD/INR and JPY/INR
pairs
Further on, unit root also has been tested using Augmented Dickey Fuller test ADF test.
The output of the same has been shown below,
The optimal level of lag length is 2 and it is based on the lowest value of Akaike
informationi criterion (AIC) which is 3.3014 in our case. It is also supported by FPE values,
which are lowest at lag 2, suggest the same level of lags.
is no cointegration between the variables, to understand the short run relationship vector
autoregressin (VAR) can be used.
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