Modeling COVID to estimate time to achieving herd immunity

Alabama has 4.9 million people. To reach herd immunity at the current
predicted level of 72% immune population, 3.53 million people will need to be
immune – either from vaccine, or as a previous case (whether diagnosed or
undiagnosed/asymptomatic).

5,000,000 Positive Tests

4,500,000
Asymptomatic
4,000,000
Vaccinated
3,500,000
Estimated
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
Actual
1,000,000
500,000
-
Jan20

Mar20

May20

Jan21

Mar21

May21
Jul20

Sep20

Nov20

Graph above assumes

1. 50,000 people get a vaccine every week and that everyone gets both doses.
2. 10% of the vaccinated had a previous COVID infection
3. For all detected cases, 3 cases were missed and that those that were missed have
immunity even though they did not have a positive test.
4. Cases continue at the same rate as today
5. No assumption is made about whether immunity lasts 90 days, 180 days, or
forever…cases, undiagnosed cases, and vaccinated would all simply be considered
“immune”
6. Does not take into consideration the variants, and the vaccine effectiveness vs those
variants
7. Makes no assumptions about children, i.e., does not treat them as a separate
population with distinct transmission parameters, but rather includes them in the
general population.