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Received: 21 Nov 2020; Abstract— The advent of digital transformation, also known as Industry
Received in revised form: 4.0, has brought considerable challenges to organizations from various
industries. The effects of its relevance and intensity can be observed in the
08 Jan 2021;
relations between organizations, between individuals and the first and
Accepted: 04 Feb 2021; governments with these two entities. By encompassing the intense use of
Available online: 12 Feb 2021 information and communication technologies (ICTs), it raises the need for
careful evaluation and selection of projects aimed at digitally
©2021 The Author(s). Published by AI
transforming, business processes, business models and customer
Publication. This is an open access article
experience to interact with the first two. In this sense, portfolio
under the CC BY license
management which includes the evaluation and selection of projects, has
(https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
numerous methods of analysis ranging from financial tools to strategic
Keywords— digital transformation, Industry approaches. Therefore, selection of the method directly influences the
4.0, scenarios, portfolio management, quality of the decision made, as well as obtaining the optimal portfolio of
information technology and communication projects. This study is dedicated to exploring the use of scenarios to
support the analysis and selection of digital transformation projects. This
research is qualitative, exploratory, descriptive in nature and is structured
through ground theory method (GTM) applied in 7 (seven) Brazilian
telecommunications operators. The main contribution of this study is the
proposition of a framework that integrates prospective scenarios of
evaluation and selection of projects in organizations in a structured
manner helping them to conduct their digital transformation, through the
creation of digital capabilities.
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Alexandre Caramelo Pinto et al. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, 8(2)-2021
intelligence, distributed ledgers technologies (blockchain), Thus, the objective was not to obtain at the end of this
consumerization and startups, as well as utilization of study a generalization of a statistical nature, but on the
decision tools based on scenarios that assures a path to be other hand, an analytical perspective, once the intention is
followed as well as the intermediate scenarios to be to use theories identified through various consecrated
reached by organizations (Wack, 1985; Porter, 1986; elements that will serve as a comparative support to the
Schoemaker, 1995; Chermack, Lynham and Ruona, 2001; results collected in interviews conducted with executives
Meissner and Wulf, 2013). in organizations in the telecommunications sector, with a
The objective of this work is to analyze the use of focus on network operators.
scenarios during the evaluation and selection of innovation The selection of organizations belonging to the
projects focusing on digital transformation determining telecommunications sector, which were the object of this
how they influence the trajectory of telecommunications study was based on the guidelines of the initiative of the
operators towards the desired state, and to offer a World Economic Forum (Wef, 2017a) dedicated to
theoretical and conceptual framework that integrates exploring and expand the potential of digital
prospective scenarios to the evaluation and selection of transformation in different sectors: retail, automotive,
projects. The intent is that such framework can assist these logistics, energy, telecommunications, aviation, oil & gas,
organizations to conduct their digital transformation, more media, mining, and chemicals. In figure 1, theory emerges
effectively through capability building efforts. from the data collected, which are systematically analyzed,
The relevance of this study can be perceived under the after their registration and comparison.
economic impact expected for such phenomenon in
various economic sectors. According to World Economic
Forum, digital transformation will be responsible for
injecting up to US $ 100 trillion by 2025, being that the
portion that relates to the telecommunications sector,
considering its potential to influence other interdepending
sectors (energy, logistics, automotive industry, retail, and
media) it can reach up to 10% of this total (Wef, 2017b).
II. METHOD
The GTM - grounded theory method, applied in this
study is a logically consistent set of data collection added
to analytical procedures that contribute to the development
of a theory through inductive strategies. According to
Charmaz (1996, p. 27) it offers “a set of strategies for
conducting rigorous qualitative research”, since it has a Fig.1: Adapted GTM flowchart integrated with case study
system for handling and modeling collected qualitative
materials. The theory teaches that in addition to revealing Source: Adapted from Goulding (2002) and Halaweh,
relevant conditions, it determines how the stakeholders Fidler & McRobb (2008)
involved respond to these conditions and the consequences
of their actions (Corbin & Strauss, 1990, 2001). In effect, Seventeen interviewed executives were approached
the theory that emerges as a result of grounded theory using the following strategy. Upon initial identification
application is based on the interviewees' voice, acts and from authors contact network, nine of them were pre-
experiences (Goulding, 2002). Halaweh, Fidler & McRobb qualified based on adherence to strict criteria presented in
(2008) assert that, typically, an analytical study conducted the theoretical framework. In total eighteen interview
through grounded theory observes the following steps: sessions were conducted following grounded theory
coding, concepts, categories, and emerging theory. In principles. Two executives declined to participate alluding
essence, the collection and analysis of present work took sensitive information could not be shared, totaling seven
place in parallel, and from the identification of previously executives that fit into research study objectives.
studied concepts, the researchers identified and coded the
incidents and events that were potential indicators of the
use of scenarios in the evaluation and selection of projects
aiming digital transformation.
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Alexandre Caramelo Pinto et al. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, 8(2)-2021
brainstormin
strategic PMO, projectized
g and Delphi stringent big data, IoT, cloud
organizational structure,
B2 PPMS, techniques portfolio computing, virtual
external consultancy support, H3
mobile ideation, for creation governance, reality, and artificial
HQ guidance and
of 3 future project rankings intelligence
partnerships
scenarios
strategic and tactical PMOs,
stringent
projectized organizational software defining
proof of scenario portfolio
structure, innovation centers network (SDN),
C1 concept, generation governance,
(R&D), strategic acquisitions network function
multimedi pilot supported by quarterly H3
with emphasis on new virtualization NFV),
a project, 3rd party portfolio reviews
business models and IoT, computing, and
PPMS experts influenced by
customer experience, open artificial intelligence
scenarios
innovation (hackathons)
final decision
business
investment
case,
new product development, within a steering
C2 partnership meetings,
intermediate scenarios x committee, small cloud computing,
multimedi s for brainstormin H1
project scope changes, portfolio, low IoT
a project g
inexistent PMO maturity in
developme
project
nt
management
low maturity in
software defining
partnership project
C3 inexistent PMO, product network (SDN),
s, pilot management,
multimedi meetings launched on multiplatform network function H1
project, main executive
a strategy virtualization NFV),
PPMS with nearly total
cloud computing
decision power
Source: the authors
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Alexandre Caramelo Pinto et al. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, 8(2)-2021
similarities with any other investment made in Venkatraman, Henderson & Oldach (1993)
organizations, it brings aspects that are consistent with the proposed that business strategy provides clarification
investment decision model from the perspective of within the strategic fit model, which have a multiple
Bannister & Remenyi (2000) and illustrated in the figure cross-impact. Years later, these aspects were revisited and
5 that guides some aspects of this study: endorsed with the model conceived by Earl (1995). This
fact reinforced the perspective of strategic choices,
naming them as: business strategy, information
technology strategy, organizational structure & processes
and, finally, information technology infrastructure and
processes.
In order to focus on the decision to invest in Management of ICT portfolios and projects
ICTs, taking as a parameter the decision analysis of their Portfolio management from the point of view of
investment projects, this study will contemplate the gray investment diversification and consequent dilution of its
regions of figure 5, which configure the most inherent risks, seek to optimize the effectiveness of
preponderant factors for such analysis (Venkatraman & investments in new products, new processes, and even
Henderson, 1993; Soh & Markus, 1995; Bannister & new business models (Osterwalder, Pigneur & Tucci,
Remenyi 2000). 2005). In the specific case of programs that aim is to
ICTs and new business models. digitally transform such organization, where this becomes
especially important, once these transformational or
At higher maturity stages in the use of ICTs,
strategic programs often include several component
organizations obtain results that can reconfigure not only
projects and continuous operations as taught by Archibald
their business processes, but also create business models
& Archibald (2016). Thus, the relationship between the
with value and scope proposals that are conceptually
business strategy and its interactions with the three layers
different from their original businesses (Venkatraman,
of project portfolio management (project, program, and
1994; Andal- Ancion, Cartwright & Yip, 2003;
portfolio) are evident.
Osterwalder, Pigneur & Tucci, 2005; Chesbrough, 2010;
Teece, 2010). However, as new business model projects One of the strategies frequently adopted by
bring with them a high degree of innovation and risk, they organizations that need to manage increasingly complex
need to be addressed in multiple perspectives. It is known projects distributed among its business areas, the resulting
that for most organizations, rethinking their business programs and their structuring portfolios also appear in
model while repositioning themselves in the face of the form of an organizational innovations (Hobbs, Aubry
intense technological change such as digital & Thuillier, 2008; Aubry et al., 2010; Drei & Silva.
transformation can be understood within what 2019). In this sense, project management offices known
Christensen (2013) and Tongur & Engwall (2014) call as PMO, have received special attention from
business model dilemma. organizations that recognize their maturity in the way
they manage their projects, programs and portfolios may
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Alexandre Caramelo Pinto et al. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, 8(2)-2021
depend on an organizational structure that offers of the success obtained by Royal Dutch Shell´s executive
guidance, standardization, and governance at these three and its understanding created by Schwartz (1996).
management layers. Amongst numerous PMO functions Obviously, there are innumerable views regarding the use
is an economic-financial approach, using various of scenarios for strategic planning purposes, among which
techniques such as NPV - net present value, EVA - added Porter (1986) refers to it as “partial views, internally
economic value (Chen & Dodd, 1997), IRR - internal rate consistent of what the world will be in the future and that
of return, discounted payback, where its first step is to can be chosen to limit the set of circumstances that may
scrutinize project in terms of its expenditures and occur”. Such scenarios can be subdivided into three
revenues, in order to subsequently discount cash flows at categories (feasible, probable, and desirable) according to
present value, even if the technique is combined with the Santos (2011).
use of real options (Facó, 2017; Paiva, 2017) that also Figure 8 shows the application of the environment
seek to value the decision to invest or delay project scenario technique directly to prospective technological
(Amram & Kulatilaka, 1999; Trigeorgis & Smit, 2004). trajectories as recommended by Phaal & Muller (2009).
It is also clear that, even if the project is approved and The Grumbach scenario method also allows participation
initiated, it must undergo successive scrutiny at each of experts quite common in the field of ICTs during the
phase closure, where an analysis of its performance creative process and it is supported by specific software
indicators is normally conducted. If the project is not able able to handle Bayesian networks to generate scenarios
to generate the expected results and benefits (including and probabilities.
ones related to tax relief), it may cede its place and
resources undertaken to other initiatives that will
compose a refreshed portfolio (Archer & Ghasemzadeh,
1999; Cooper, Edgett & Kleinschmidt, 2001; Itikawa &
Santiago, 2021). Archer & Ghasemzadeh (1999) proposed
a model represented in figure 7 that aims at selecting
project portfolios, where the individual analysis of
projects is shown.
Fig.7: Project portfolio selection model The selection of operators was made based on the
Source: Adapted from Archer & Ghasemzadeh (1999). licenses issued by Brazilian regulatory agency, Anatel -
national telecommunications agency, made until the first
half of 2017. In table 2 it is possible to identify the
Business decision using scenarios characterization of the sampled operators as well as the
According to Chermack, Lynham & Ruona (2001) interviewees, separated by observation group. For
when searching for the roots of planning facilitated by confidentiality and privacy reasons, each of the
scenarios, it became evident as well as several other executives interviewed was assigned a number and the
techniques and scientific discoveries, that the term was participating operators a letter followed by a number that
coined in the military environment as early as the 1940s, associates it with the observation group to which it
where the former RAND Corporation, engaged in the belongs. The proposed questions dealt with articulation of
development of armaments with great use of R&D and scenarios to understand the impact of emerging
technology, where such term was conceived as future- technologies for telecom sector, seeking to identify
now. From this point onwards, the interest of corporations techniques, procedures, software, and methodologies used
increased dramatically during following years, in the face by decision makers in their quest for optimal decision
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Alexandre Caramelo Pinto et al. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, 8(2)-2021
concerning digital transformation project portfolio. Thus, digital transformation and, therefore, where it was
through these combined questions, it was also possible to possible to identify a greater degree of integration of
identify in some cases the type of innovative strategies scenarios into the decision-making process with a great
adopted by operators as per typology proposed by preponderance of the strategic PMO positioned in higher
Freeman & Soete (2008). hierarchical levels. Executive 4 from operator B2
Comparative analysis of observation groups indicated that scenario generation process, given the mix
of technologies contained in the portfolio, can reach up to
The first observable aspect is the centrality of the
3 future scenarios. Although in this observation group,
studied phenomenon centered on actions or observations
questions about new business models have emerged, only
of the interviewed executives whose statements were
one of the executives indicated a high concern of the
identified. The second aspect, which is equally important,
organization with the business model aspect, with 60% of
is the context in which the studied phenomenon unfolds,
the projects contributing to specific objectives related to
which suggests that action and interaction strategies are
partnerships.
taken. There may also be intervening conditions that limit
or enable the action strategies defined in the context that It was possible to verify that, amongst three
can be individualized. And finally, the consequences are a observation groups, group C of the multimedia operators
product of the strategies selected by the observed was the most heterogeneous of them and one of the
organizations, in this case, the operators subdivided into reasons for this fact, lies in the aspect that the operators of
their three observation groups (Golafshani, 2003; this group, besides acting in different niches (global
Halaweh, Fidler & Mcrobb, 2008). networks and carrier operators) also had quite different
sizes. On the other hand, according to the analysis of the
In observation group A, of the fixed operators, there
data collected, in comparison with the other observation
was a lower degree of integration of scenarios into the
groups (A, fixed and B, mobile), executives of these
evaluation and selection process, while in group B, this
operators were more affected by technological trends than
element appears more present throughout the stages of the
the others, especially the C1 executive belonging to a
process. Paradoxically, in the case of observation group
global scale operation. In comparison with the other
A, of fixed operators, scenarios were cited by executives
groups, this one demonstrated in the narratives, a high
1 and 2 at a slightly higher level in comparison to
concern with future business models. One of the possible
observation group B (mobile), however, it was not
components that may have contributed to this perception
possible to detect additional evidence in the tooling,
would be linked to a greater dependence on
processes and techniques that prove effective integration
organizational assets with a high risk of commoditization
of scenarios in the evaluation and selection of projects in
(physical networks), especially in the category known as
the ICT portfolios. Another interesting finding was that
operators of operators, which, unlike operator C3, have
there was a strong concern with the digitization of
more developed digital capabilities in managed services
processes, articulating artificial intelligence and big data
via platforms that can be considered agnostic.
tools, followed by several projects and programs to
improve customer experience. Mentions to reposition In the three observation groups, it was possible to
current business model were also present, which may identify pieces of digital marketing communicated to the
suggest that these operators are more concerned with their market and shareholders, and participation in market
revenue generation capacity, especially when compared events involving digital transformation efforts and
to observation group B (mobile) in which this concern discussions. In these secondary evidences, properly
was less latent. collected over the 14-month interval, it was possible to
identify elements that emerged during the interviews,
Observation group B, of mobile operators, was the
which allowed confirmation or any inconsistency of
group with the highest number of projects dedicated to
aspects brought by the executives interviewed.
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Alexandre Caramelo Pinto et al. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, 8(2)-2021
Chief
6 C2 corporate: connectivity, new products and Technology
advanced voice IP small, services 3 small Officer -
solutions and cloud regional development projects CTO,
23 years operators: conectivity (100%) Top level
20 in PPM executive
Chief
medium, new
7 C3 corporate: connectivity, 20 small Executive
regional, multiplatform
operators: connectivity projects Officer -
operator of products and
for remote and difficult and 10 large CEO,
network digitized
25 years locations (last mile) projects Top level
operators processes
18 in PPM executive
Source: the authors
H1 H2 H3
A sample of seven operators is representative, within hand, in the case of fixed and mobile operators, where
established initial objectives for a exploratory and there is a high market concentration in Brazil, this aspect
qualitative research, draws a panorama that may not becomes less relevant for the reasons clarified by
represent in its entirety the reality of other organizations Halaweh, Fidler and McRobb (2008) where they maintain
that could have been included in the study. On the other that integrating case study with grounded theory can be
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Alexandre Caramelo Pinto et al. International Journal of Advanced Engineering Research and Science, 8(2)-2021
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