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TU aa UPd Cuca ead meland N\coena ie Introduction Saape Note Key Takenways “The Cyber Threat tothe Homeland 7 Nation Stete Threats 7 Cytererime 2 Cyter Threats to US Democratic Process 9 Foreign Influence inthe Homeland an Amplifying US Socio Poitcal Division B COVID-19 nfuence Neti: —— " 2020 US Presidential Election 16 2020US Census 8 Influencing State na Local Goverment 8 CCounterintelligence and Threats to US Economic Security _ 20 COVID.19Efecison Economic Security 20 Exploiting US Academic stitutions and Rewoch Pa Ee iee ih Upied Sas Threats o US Supply Chai integrity 2B Violtons of US Trade Ls and Policies 24 “The Terrorist Threat othe Homeland 25 eee tee ad esa Foreign Terrorist Treats ay ‘Transnational Organized Criminal Threats to US Security _ 30 _Mexico-baseit Cartels 30 lice Drugs a Irregular Migration o the United States 2 Irregular Land Migration 2 Irregular Maritime Migration eS ‘The evolving Homeland threat landscape inchudes complex challenges from hostile nation-states, cyber threat acters, terrorists, transnational criminal organizations, ane emerging, infectious diseases. In this fest annual Homeland Threat ‘Assessment, we provide a strategic overview of these and other key threats, and how we anticipate their evolution through 2021 While terrorism and criminal Unreats endure, this ‘Assessment makes clea that great-power competition often, considered in terms of overseas actions and foreign policy increasingly is playing out inthe Homeland through cyber, influence, and economic means, We see the effects throughout all levels of government, industry academia, and society ‘Most recently, the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic thas presented a new set of challenges to America’s security, safety, health and prosperity. COVID-1f's impact on every traditional Homeland threat vector underscores the need 0 continually reassess existing assumptions across all domains. The (Hfects of this pandemic undoubtedly will shape the Homeland threat environment in unpredictable ways, probably for years to “Tho Department of Homeland Security's Inteligence Trnterprise (DHS IE) works every day to collet, analy2 and share {information from all soeceson the threats we deseribe in this ‘nssesement. We ensure that policymakers and operators atthe Federal, state, local tribal, and tercitoral levels as well as in the private sector —can act to keep Americ safe, secure, and resilient he officers of the DHS TE will remain vigilant and agile as we adaptto the changing threat landscape and arm our partners to do the same. ‘This Homeland Threat Assessment (HTA) was produced in ‘response to direction from the Secretary of Homeland Security 10 prepare an annal strategic forecast ofthe Homeland threat environment, Itis intended fo support policymaking, planning, ‘resource allocations, and inter-governmental partnerships. “The judgments within the HTA are those of the Department of Homeland Security Intelligence Enterprise (DHS IE), including, two US Intelligence Community elements the Office of Intelligence and Analysis and the US Coast Guard—and the intelligence elements within US Citizenship andl Immigration Services, US Customs and Border Protection, the Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, US Immigration an Customs Enforcement, the US Secret Service, the Transportation Security Administration, and the Countering Weapons of Mass Destruction Office ©The HA addresses what the DHS IE judges are top threat issues through 2021; itis nota comprehensive review of al Homeland threats, The HTA focuses on istes for which [DHS has direct policy of operational roles or equities, 4¢ As this is an unclassified document, we do not provide all the underlying reporting, details, or sourcing, However, the assessments herein are consistent with the full body of ‘classified intelligence available to DISS. «© We have included preliminary analysis of how COVIDA9 ‘will affect the Homeland; however forecasting the full scope of its effects is challenging, given myriad variables find the stage ofthe panelemic as ofthis writing, 1s TheHITA forecast period is through 2021. The cutoff date for information and analysis is 27 August 2020 Cyber & Foreign Influence ‘+ Nation-stat actor wll sustain expansive cyber

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