Computer Modeling in Business (SQQP 3033)

Individual Assignment

Prepared by:

Ahmad Haziq Bin Azman 198319

Submitted to :

Shanizan Herman Bin Mohd Radzi

Date Of Submission :

16 February 2011
Definition

Simulation

Simulation is the progression of designing a model of a real system and conducing

experiments with this model for the purpose of considerate the behavior of the system and for

evaluating various strategies for the operation of the system. Simulation of a system is the

operation of a model for the system. It is used before the system is service or a new system

that are going to be build. Reasons of using simulation is to ease the chances of failure to meet

the specification, to eradicate unforeseen bottlenecks and also to increases the performance of

the system.

System

System is a collection or group that unified to the elements to achieve some stated goal from

the company.

Model

Model is the illustration of a collection of objective or ideas in some form of entity itself.

Model is a depiction of the construction and working of some system of interest. The purpose

of model is to enable the study to estimate the effect of changes of the system.

Types of Simulation Models

In simulation models there several types of simulation methodologies such as discrete and

process ,oriented approach and so on, but we will only focus our scope on deterministic

(which is input and output variables are fixed values) or stochastic (at least one of the input

or output variables is probabilities) ,static (item is not taken into account) or dynamic (time

varying interactions among variables are taken into account).

The General Goal of Simulation Study

The use of simulation study is to makes possible the study, analysis and evaluation of

situation that would not be otherwise possible. Simulation is one or the best thing observing

the real system in operation. This is because it allow us to study the situation since we are

unable to experiment directly from the real systems. Simulation study wants to make easy for

the managers to make decision with the cheap insurance and a cost effective decision making

tools. Other than that, simulation study will also wants us to minimize the risks by letting us

discover the right decision before making the wrong one.

The Basic Concept of Simulation

The basic concept of simulation is simple to comprehend and hence often easier to validate to

management or clients than some of the analytical models. Other than that it is more credible,

it is because the behavior has been compared to that of the real system or it requires less

simplifying postulation and hence capture more of the true characteristic of the system under

study. Beside that entity can be the one of the basic concept of the simulation. Entity flows

through the system and will be process by a series of resources. Entity also can have

individual a common characteristic for all entities but with different specific value that can

differ from one entity to another. Resource is also a part of the basic concept of simulation. It

require anything that the entity needs in order to be processed. Simulation models is a

computer program which represent the logic of the system as entities with attributes arrive,

join queues to await the assignment of require resource, are processed by the resources,

released and exit the system.

Steps in Simulation Study

1) Problem Definition

Specify problems with an existing system. We begin with our analysis by get-together

information about the problem. The usual flow events will be : diagnosis of symptoms

> problem definition > system definition > model formulation.

The important aspect of the planning phase is to guarantee the certain decisive factors

have been considered.

2) System Definition

Determining the limitations and constraint to be used in defining the system and

investigating how the system work.

3) Conceptual Model Formulation

Developing a beginning model either graphically or in pseudo-code to define the

components, descriptive variables, and interaction that constitute the system.

4) Collect and process real system data

Identifying and collecting the input data needed by the model based on the system

requirement. Very time consuming and time difficult ( 1/3 of the total time are used in

studies) . In this steps also have a potential source of input such as:

a) Historical records
 b) Observational Data

c) Similar system

d) Operation estimate

e) Vendors claims

f) Designer estimate

g) Theoretical consideration

5) Model Translation

Formulating the model in an appropriate simulation language. In the addition there are

hundreds of other language are use locally to develop languages in use in companies

and university . By using the purpose of the simulation packages that is simulation

language and also application oriented simulators.

6) Verification and Validation

Verification- to create computer programs perform as expected.

Validation- the process of attainment and suitable level of confidence that the

inferences drawn are correct and appropriate to the real world system.

7) Design and Experiment

 A simulation experiment is a test or a sequence of test to make sure that the changes

are made to input variables into simulation model so that we may examine and classify

the reasons oh changes to perform as predictable.

8) Analysis and Interpretation

Representation the inferences from the data generated by the simulation runs.

9) Implementation and Documentation

Reporting the result , putting the results to used, recording the findings and

documenting the model and its use.

Simulation Applications

As we can see simulation is about how to help the decision maker to make the decision wisely

with the minimizing the risks and also without putting high budget to manage the company.

Simulation application is used for the business simulation, economic simulation, software

simulation such as Microsoft and also game simulation.

Simulation Languages

Simulation language can built using general purpose programming languages which are

familiar to the analyst, available over a wide selection or platforms and less expensive. Today

most companies are using simulation packages because it is easy to learn. There will be some

advantages using simulation packages which there will be a decrease on the programming

task, stipulation of theoretical guidance, increase the flexibility when changing the model and

less programming error.

There are 3 type simulation package :

a) Programming Language – FORTAN,C++,Visual Basic,Pascal

b) Simulation Language – Arena, AweSIM, Extend, Mirco Saint

c) Application Oriented simulator – AutoMod, FACTOR/AIM, WITNESS, Taylor II

Advantages and Disadvantages of Simulation

Advantages

• We can test a new design, layout without committing recourses to their

accomplishment.

• It allow us to identify bottlenecks in information, material and product flows and test

options for increasing the flow rates.

• It let us to find the answer on how and why certain problems occur in the system.

• Simulations let us discover the new staff policies, operating procedures, decision rules,

organizational structure, and information flow without disturbing the current

operations.
 • Simulation also allow us to gain the imminent on how a model system is actually work

and to know which variables is more vital.

• It allow us to control the time, we can work the system for a number of months or

years.

• The strength of simulation is the capability to let us discover with new and unknown

problem and to answer the “what if” question.

Disadvantages

• Simulation is something that require specialized training and great skill levels of

practitioners vary widely. The utility of the study is based on the quality of the model

and skill of the modeler.

• With a high gathering dependable input data can be time consuming and the resulting

data is sometimes highly uncertain. Simulation cannot recompense for the not enough

data or poor management decision.

 • Simulation models are input-output. They do not yield an optimal solution, rather they

serve as a tool for analysis of the behavior of a system under condition specified by

the experimenter.

Path to failure and success in conducting simulation project

Path to failure

• Failure to define a clear and achievable goal.

• Inadequate planning and underestimating the resources needed.

• Inadequate user participant.

• Writing code too soon before the system is really understood.

• Wrong mix of team skill.

• Lack of trust confidence and backing by management.

Past to success

• Have clearly defined an attainable goal.

• Have a good documentation of all planning and modeling effort.

• Be sure that there are sufficient communication channels to the sponsor and end user.
• Assure that we have all the necessary skills available for the period of the project.

• Have a clear sympathetic with the sponsor and end users as the range and goals of the

project as well as schedules.

• Have management support and have it known to those who must assist with us in

supplying information data.