Clarkson Lumber Company Natalya Kashirina

Cashflow Forecast (in thousands) FIN 4422

1996 1997 1998

+ S(1-t) 3,242 3,858 4,591
- vS(1-t) (3,128) (3,722) (4,429)
- F(1-t) (1) (1) (1)
+ Dt - - -
either ∆wc (252) (300) (357)
- C [replacement] (31) (33) (34)
- C [expansion] (139)

Net result oper CF (171) (198) (370)

Net decision CF - - -
- NET OPERATING CF θ (171) (198) (370)

- Interest(1-t) (41) (55) (72)

- Principal pmts (120) (20) (20)
Common dividends - - -
Pref dividends - - -
Lease pmts(1-t) - - -

- Fixed financial CF (161) (75) (92)

- Net decision fin CF - - -
- DECISION + FIXED
- FINANCIAL CFs ϕ (161) (75) (92)
-
CATO (Free CF) (332) (274) (462)
Gross Debt 610 822 1,075 1,517
F 2.13 2.21 2.30 2.39
t 0.39
v 0.965
w 0.250
c 0.097
Cr (30)

GROWTH 0.19 0.19 0.19 0.19

INFLATOR 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
SALES 4,519 5,315 6,324 7,526

Total EFN 1996-1998 907

CASE I
CONTINUED GROWTH AND OPERATIONS
Income Statement 1st Qtr
1993 1994 1995 1996 1996
Net sales 2,921 3,477 4,519 1,062 5,315
cost of goods sold:
Beginning inventory 330 337 432 587
Purchases 2209 2729 3579 819
2,539 3,066 4,011 1,406
Ending inventory 337 432 587 607
Total COGS 2,202 2,634 3,424 799 4,020
Operating expenses 622 717 940 244 1,081
total expenses 2,824 3,351 4,364 1,043 5,101
EBIT 97 126 155 19 213
Interest 23 42 56 13 65
Earnings before tax 74 84 99 6 148
Tax 14 16 22 1 58
Net income 60 68 77 5 91

Balance Sheet 1st Qrtr

1993 1994 1995 1996
cash 43 52 56 53
inventory 337 432 587 607
accounts receivables 306 411 606 583
current assets 686 895 1,249 1,243
gross fixed assets
accumulated deprection
net fixed assets 233 262 388 384
TOTAL ASSETS 919 1,157 1,637 1,627
29 126
notes payable, bank - 60 390 399
notes payable, Holtz - 100 100 100
notes payable, trade - - 127 123
accounts payable 213 340 376 364
accruals 42 45 75 67
current portion-term loan 20 20 20 20
current liabilities 275 565 1,088 1,073

term loan 140 120 100 100

note payable, Holtz - 100 - -
net worth 504 372 449 454

TOTAL LIABILITIES 919 1,157 1,637 1,627

1st Qtr
w-factor: 1993 1994 1995 1996
accounts recevable/sales 0.105 0.118 0.134 0.549
inventory/sales 0.115 0.124 0.130 0.572
acnts payable (+trade)/sales 0.073 0.098 0.111 0.459
accruals/sales 0.014 0.013 0.017 0.063
working capital factor 0.133 0.132 0.136 0.599

average: 0.250

1993 1994 1995 rate:

Days in A/R 38 43 49 13%
Days in Inventory 56 60 63 6%
Days in Payalbes 35 47 54 23%

1993 1994 1995

operating exp 622 717 940
minus salary 75 80 85
total operating exp: 547 637 855
op.exp/sales 18.73% 18.32% 18.92%
average: 18.66%

cogs/sales 75.39% 75.75% 75.77%

average: 75.64%
Clarkson Lumber Company
Cashflow Forecast (in thousands)

1996 1997 1998

+ S(1-t) 3,242 3,955 4,905
- vS(1-t) (3,129) (3,817) (4,733)
- F(1-t) (1) (1) (1)
+ Dt
either ∆wc (292) (389) (523)
- C [replacement] (31) (33) (34)
- C [expansion] - - (203)

Net result oper CF (212) (285) (589)

Net decision CF - - -
- NET OPERATING CF θ (212) (285) (589)

- Interest(1-t) (41) (58) (81)

either Principal pmts (120) (20) (20)
Common dividends - - -
Pref dividends - - -
Lease pmts(1-t) - - -

- Fixed financial CF (161) (78) (101)

- Net decision fin CF - - -
- DECISION + FIXED
- FINANCIAL CFs ϕ (161) (78) (101)
-
CATO (Free CF) (372) (363) (690)
Gross Debt 610 862 1,205 1,875
F 2.13 2.21 2.30 2.39
t 0.39
v 0.965
w 0.250
c 0.097
Cr (30)

GROWTH 0.19 0.22 0.24 0.26

INFLATOR 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
SALES 4,519 5,315 6,484 8,041

Total EFN 1996-1998 1,265

CASE II
HIGH GROWTH
Clarkson Lumber Company
Cashflow Forecast (in thousands)

1996 1997 1998

+ S(1-t) 3,242 3,566 3,388
- vS(1-t) (5,156) (5,700) (5,443)
- F(1-t) (1) (1) (1)
+ Dt
either ∆wc (133) 73 (69)
- C [replacement] (31) (33) (34)
- C [expansion] - - -

Net result oper CF (2,079) (2,095) (2,160)

Net decision CF - - -
- NET OPERATING CF θ (2,079) (2,095) (2,160)

- Interest(1-t) (41) (183) (336)

either Principal pmts (120) (20) (20)
Common dividends - - -
Pref dividends - - -
Lease pmts(1-t) - - -

- Fixed financial CF (161) (203) (356)

- Net decision fin CF - - -
- DECISION + FIXED
- FINANCIAL CFs ϕ (161) (203) (356)
-
CATO (Free CF) (2,240) (2,298) (2,516)
Gross Debt 610 2,730 5,008 7,504
F 2.13 2.21 2.30 2.39
t 0.39
v 0.965 0.970 0.975 0.980
w 0.250
c 0.097
Cr (30)

GROWTH 0.19 0.1 -0.05 0.05

INFLATOR 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
SALES 4,519 5,315 5,847 5,554

Total EFN 1996-1998 6,894

CASE III
COST SQUEEZE -- COMPETITOR EVOLVES; SALES DROP; VARIABLE COSTS RISE.
Clarkson Lumber Company
Cashflow Forecast (in thousands)

1996 1997 1998

+ S(1-t) 3,242 3,339 3,406
- vS(1-t) (3,145) (3,206) (3,236)
- F(1-t) (1) (1) (1)
+ Dt
either ∆wc (40) (27) (28)
- C [replacement] (31) (33) (34)
- C [expansion] - - -

Net result oper CF 25 72 107

Net decision CF - - -
- NET OPERATING CF θ 25 72 107

- Interest(1-t) (41) (42) (40)

either Principal pmts (120) (20) (20)
Common dividends - - -
Pref dividends - - -
Lease pmts(1-t) - - -

- Fixed financial CF (161) (62) (60)

- Net decision fin CF - - -
- DECISION + FIXED
- FINANCIAL CFs ϕ (161) (62) (60)
-
CATO (Free CF) (136) 10 47
Gross Debt 610 626 596 529
F 2.13 2.21 2.30 2.39
t 0.39
v 0.965 0.970 0.960 0.950
w 0.250
c 0.097
Cr (30)

GROWTH 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.02

INFLATOR 0.04 0.04 0.04 0.04
SALES 4,519 5,315 5,474 5,584

Total EFN 1996-1998 (81)

CASE IV
SLOW GROWTH -- OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO
 New Financing Required based on Sales Growth
12.0

10.0
Financing Requirement '96-'98 (in thousands)

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0
0 0.02 0.04 0.06 0.08 0.1 0.12 0.14 0.16 0.18 0.2

Growth Rate