ARTICLE IN PRESS

Teaching and Teacher Education 22 (2006) 315–326

www.elsevier.com/locate/tate

What are the problems with teacher supply?

Patrick Whitea,, Stephen Gorardb, Beng Huat Seeb
a
Department of Sociology, University of Leicester, University Road, Leicester LE1 7RH, UK
b
Department of Educational Studies, University of York

Abstract

This paper is based on our studies of teacher recruitment and retention. Using official statistics from a variety of
secondary sources, it builds on our previous work on the changing demand for teachers by exploring issues of teacher
supply in the UK. Our findings suggest there is no overall shortage of applicants to initial teacher education and training
(ITET), and the number of applicants and places are now higher than at any time since 1982. There were, however, almost
as many unsuccessful as successful applicants to ITET courses, despite some recruitment targets not being met.
Furthermore, it was not clear how these targets were set and whether they included an estimate of trainee attrition and/or
the number of successful trainees expected to enter the teaching profession. There were imbalances in the supply of
teachers, with many more female than male trainees. The majority of trainees were in their twenties, with the chances of
being offered a training place decreasing with age, despite the uneven age profile of the contemporary teaching profession.
There are important structural limitations to teacher supply, particularly in relation to the number of graduates in maths
and science subjects. Improving teacher recruitment in these areas is, thus, dependent on increasing the number of students
continuing to study these subjects in post-sixteen and higher education.
r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Keywords: Teacher recruitment; Teaching labour market; Teacher demand

1. Introduction 1998a). English Language was for the first time

Considerable media time and attention has been
devoted to the issue of teacher supply in secondary
schools in the UK, particularly from the mid-1990s
onwards, with teacher shortages apparently reach-
ing crisis point in 2000/2001 (Dean, 2001). The
number of designated ‘shortage subjects’ also
increased, and in England and Wales serious
shortages were reported in mathematics, science,
modern foreign languages and technology (Depart-
ment for Education and Employment (DfEE),
Corresponding author.
E-mail address: pkw4@le.ac.uk (P. White).
considered a shortage subject (School Teachers’
Review Body, 2001) and Estyn (the Welsh Inspec-
torate) reported additional shortages for Wales in
ICT, Welsh, geography, RE, art and music (Joint
Submission to the School Teachers’ Review Body,
2002). Furthermore, it was reported that Govern-
ment statistics showed more teachers were leaving
than entering the profession in 1999, resulting in a
net loss of 14,300 practitioners in England and
Wales (School Teachers’ Review Body, 2001). These
factors provide the basis for a ‘crisis’ account of the
problems for teacher supply.
According to The School Teachers’ Review Body
11th Report (School Teachers’ Review Body, 2002),

0742-051X/$ - see front matter r 2005 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
doi:10.1016/j.tate.2005.11.002
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
316 P. White et al. / Teaching and Teacher Education 22 (2006) 315–326
it has been argued that Government statistics do not
necessarily reveal the real scale of the problem
because of the deployment of ‘underqualified’
teachers. Concerns have been expressed that ‘in-
sufficient high-quality entrants were being attracted
in comparison to other professions’ and ‘the quality
of entrants was low in shortage subject areas’ (BBC
News, 2001; House of Commons, 1997a, p. xvi,
1997b; Report of Sir Gareth Roberts’ Review,
2002). In a survey by the National Association of
Head Teachers (NAHT), seven out of ten vacancies
in secondary schools in one London authority had
been filled by people without the necessary qualifi-
cations (Joint submission to the STRB, 2002;
Levenson, 2001), and a recent study by Roper
(2002) reported that schools were finding it increas-
ingly difficult to recruit ‘suitably’ qualified staff for
permanent posts.
The situation was, therefore, viewed as critical by
many policy-makers and practitioner bodies. Even
academics have written as though teacher shortages
are a well-established empirical phenomenon (e.g.
Bird, 2002; Grace & Lawn, 1991; Kyriacou et al.,
2002; Reid & Caudwell, 1997). Studies on teacher
shortages, both past and present, invariably point to
the difficulties of recruiting and retaining teachers as
the reasons for the prevailing problem (Hillman,
1994; Lyons, 1981; Robinson & Smithers, 1998).
The same kind of issues are apparent in other
developed countries (Ingersoll, 2001), and have been
the subject of discussion by policy-makers and
academics for some time (Shankler, 1992).
Although an increasing number of incentives
were launched to boost recruitment, they have been
viewed as neither effective nor appropriate in
tackling the current teacher supply problem (Bul-
lock & Scott, 1989; Bullock, Scott, & Thompson,
1989; Thompson, Scott, & Bullock, 1988). The five
main teachers unions accused the government of
placing an ‘inappropriate emphasis on the use of
these so-called targeted recruitment incentives’
(School Teachers’ Review Body, 2001). According
to the unions, the key cause of the problem in
recruiting and retaining teachers was the relatively
poor position of teachers in terms of salary
compared to other graduate professions.
This is the background against which our study
took place. The paper first outlines the methods used
in this study before going on to consider: the demand
for teachers; trends in the number and type of
trainees; the social composition of the student teacher
body; the role of targets; and course completion rates.
2. Method
Although the focus of our research was the
picture for teacher supply in Wales, this picture is
inextricably bound up with the picture for England
and further afield. Many of the teachers trained in
Wales teach elsewhere, and many of the teachers in
Wales were trained elsewhere. Much of the longer
term data needed to establish trends were only
available for England and Wales, or for the UK. In
general, our analysis has shown that trends for the
UK and England are similar to those for Wales,
although Wales has particular problems relating to
the recruitment of Welsh language teachers and
practitioners able to teach through the medium of
Welsh (White, See, Gorard, & Roberts, 2003).
Therefore, our findings expressed at UK, England
and Wales, and Wales levels can be seen as relevant
to a wider audience concerned with promoting
teacher supply.
This work is based on an analysis of secondary
data sources relevant to teacher recruitment and
retention. While using secondary sources has
obvious limitations and dangers (see Gorard,
2003), as does the use of any one approach, these
data represent large-scale repeated multi-faceted
national indicators that can be disaggregated into
appropriate levels and sub-groups. They can, there-
fore, provide a valuable corrective to the conclu-
sions of more localised commentaries. Data were
taken chiefly from Department for Education and
Employment (DfEE)/Department for Education
and Skills (DfES) Statistics of Education: Teachers
in England and Wales (2000, 2001, 2002a, 2002b),
the School Teachers’ Review Body Statistical
Annex (2000) and the School Teachers’ Review
Body Eleventh Report (2002). Other sources are
acknowledged as appropriate. The definitions of
terms adopted here are those used by the School
Teachers’ Review Body (2002). The use of several
sources led to some problems of incompatible scope,
geographical coverage, and definition. This high-
lights the need for more comprehensive data
collection and archiving strategies, coordinated at
a central level, in order to avoid future problems of
this type.
The nature of the data entails only very simple
analysis. The figures are for populations, and
therefore no probabilistic calculations are involved.
They are presented in graphical or tabular form to
illustrate trends over time or differences between
groups.
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P. White et al. / Teaching and Teacher Education 22 (2006) 315–326 317

3. A summary of the demand for teachers ITET graduates in their early twenties, preferably
with a PGCE qualification (Smithers, 1990).
We have described the pattern of demand for
teachers in detail elsewhere (See, Gorard, & White,
4. Trends in trainees
2004). However, as the age and sex composition of
the existing teaching population has important
4.1. The number of trainees
implications for teacher supply, it is useful to
highlight some relevant contextual factors before
Fig. 1 shows ITET enrolments in Wales by course
moving on to a detailed examination of the supply
type for the academic years 1994/95 to 2000/01. As
of teaching staff.
can be seen, throughout this period the overall
At the time of writing there are more teachers in
number of enrolments has remained relatively
England and Wales than there ever have been, while
stable, reaching its lowest point of 2180 in 1998/99
pupil numbers are set to decline over the next few
and peaking at 2360 in 2000/01. However, the
years. Over the long-term the trend for pupil:teacher
concurrent increase in PGCE and decrease in first
ratios is also downward. Future projections predict
degree enrolments means that the proportionate
a continuation of this trend (DfES, 2002a, 2002b).
difference between the two routes has changed
These figures do not seem to be likely precursors to
considerably. Whilst in 1994/95 there were 950
a crisis in teacher supply. In fact, as we show below,
enrolments on first degree ITET courses and 1330
teacher shortages appear to have been misread (and
on PGCEs, in 2000/01 there were 1530 of the latter
since we completed the work the alleged ‘crisis’ is
and only 830 of the former. Thus, the proportion of
now about teacher redundancies, Shaw & Hayes,
first degree trainees fell from 42% to 35% of all
2004). There is no overall shortage of teachers. Of
ITET enrolments over the period observed.
greater concern than the number of teacher
The Graduate Teacher Training Registry
vacancies, which is an unreliable guide to demand,
(GTTR), which administers applications to PGCE
is the social composition of the current and
courses for the whole of the UK, provides data
prospective teacher workforce in terms of sex, age,
relating to applicants to postgraduate courses. This
ethnicity, disability and qualifications.
is only available aggregated at the UK level, but
For example, the increase in teacher numbers in
includes details of applicants’ social backgrounds
recent years has predominantly been a result of an
and numbers of successful applications, both of
increase in the number of women in the profession.
which are unavailable for undergraduate ITET
Women have always outnumbered men in primary
applicants. Table 1 shows applications and accep-
schools and increased their presence in secondary
tances for PGCE courses in the UK for the years
sector from 46% of full-time secondary teachers in
1994–2002. Over this period applications rose from
1985 to 53% in 1999 (Social Trends 30, 2000). This
has important implications for teacher supply, as
2,500
women have previously been more likely to take
breaks in their career for child-rearing (but see later
2,000
discussion). More importantly, more men than
women take higher degrees in shortage subjects
such as maths, science and technology, meaning 1,500
that any increase in the number of women in
teaching is proportionately less likely to raise the 1,000
number of teachers in these subjects.
The largest proportion of the teaching profession All
500
is aged between 45 and 54 years, and applicants in PGCE
First degree
their 30s are both under-represented and less likely
0
than their younger counterparts to be offered places 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
on initial teacher education and training (ITET)
courses. Evidence from interviews with headteachers Fig. 1. Enrolments on ITET by course type, Wales, 1994/
95–2000/01. Source: NAfW/HESA. Note: The figures for 2001/02
conducted as part of a major study in the late 1980s and 2002/03 available after completion of the analysis show all
suggests that this may be because the applicants most enrolments stabilising at 2340, with the proportion at PGCE level
sought after by those making appointments were also stabilising at 64%.
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
318 P. White et al. / Teaching and Teacher Education 22 (2006) 315–326

Table 1
Percentage of accepted applicants, UK 1994–2001

Year 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Applicants 32,389 33,831 33,920 33,612 31,555 32,914 36,065 40,895 48,078
Unsuccessful 14,656 16,622 15,588 14,315 13,161 13,907 14,835 18,672 23,567
Accepted 17,733 17,209 18,332 19,297 18,394 19,007 21,230 22,223 24,511
% accepted 55 51 54 57 58 58 59 54 51

Source: Adapted from GTTR.

32,389 to 40,895. Between 1994 and 1997 the 2500

number of applications was relatively stable but
from 1998 to 2002 increased year on year, the rate of
increase also rising from each year to the next. In
the same period acceptances rose from 17,733 to
24,511 without following any particular trend,
varying between 51% and 59% over a 7-year
period. Number of acceptances were not related to
the total number of applications received.
An important point to note from these data is the
high proportion of unsuccessful applications to
PGCE courses. In 2002, 23,567 applicants were
denied places on postgraduate ITET in the UK,
representing 49% of all applicants and, as such, a
very large number of potential teachers. Unless
nearly half of all applicants are genuinely unsuitable
for training (in which case there may be a problem
with the application guidelines), this represents an
obvious area for growth (if required). If even a
proportion of these unsuccessful applicants are
suitable, in terms of any absolute criteria, then
any problems of teacher supply stem from the
number of places available for training rather than
any lack of interest in training. Unfortunately, no
data were available on the number of unsuccessful
applicants who re-apply (either to the same or
different institutions). What is evident from the data
that are available, however, is that a large number
of individuals who are interested in training to teach
are being denied the opportunity to do so. In a
climate where ‘crises’ in recruitment are often
identified, this appears an odd situation indeed. It
is not possible to say any more about this in the
absence of data disaggregated by subject (which
may well reveal that the problem is one of over-
application in some popular subject areas).
2000
1500
1000
All
500 Primary
Secondary
0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Fig. 2. First-year students on ITET courses by sector, Wales,
1996/97–2000/01. Source: HESA. Note: The figures for 2001/02
and 2002/03 available after completion of the analysis show all
enrolments stabilising at 2340, with primary enrolments declining
slightly to 1190 and secondary enrolments increasing to 1145 by
2002/03. The sizes have converged.
courses but the trend over the 4-year period shown
has been of convergence (Fig. 2). In 1996/97
secondary trainees made up less than 39% (n ¼
880/2260) of all ITET enrolments but by 2000/01
this had increased to nearly half (48%) of all new
trainees (n ¼ 1130/2360).
From 1999/00 to 2000/01, enrolment increased or
remained constant in most individual subject areas
(Fig. 3). The only exceptions were drama and
catering, both experiencing a fall in recruitment
between these years. All ‘shortage subjects’, includ-
ing sciences, maths and languages, increased their
enrolment. In the case of design-subjects enrolment
almost doubled from 70 in 1999 to 130 in 2000.
4.3. The composition of the trainee population

4.2. The type of training Between 1994/95 and 2000/01, many more
women than men enrolled on first degree ITET
In Wales, enrolments on primary ITET courses courses in Wales. In 2001, the last year for which
have consistently outnumbered those on secondary data was available, women made up 74% of all
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
P. White et al. / Teaching and Teacher Education 22 (2006) 315–326 319

Fig. 3. First-year students on secondary ITET courses by subject, Wales, 1999/00–2000/01. Source: HESA. Note: The figures for 2001/02
available after completion of the analysis show that all shortage subjects increased or retained their numbers, except for Biology (from 75
to 55) and Welsh (from 60 to 30).

enrolments. In absolute terms, there has also been a 1800

slight decrease in the number of men enrolling, with 1600
their numbers declining from 710 in 1994/95 to a 1400
low of 590 in 1999/00 before rising slightly in the
1200
next academic year. The difference between male
and female enrolments is even more pronounced 1000
when data on first degree ITET enrolments are 800
examined. In 1994/95 men made up less than 25% 600
of enrolments on first degree ITET courses, falling 400
to only 18% (n ¼ 150/830) by 2000/01. Male
200
enrolments are thus falling both in absolute and
0
proportional terms. 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
The story of PGCE enrolments in Wales is
slightly different. Whilst the proportion of men All Female Male
decreased only very slightly each year between 1994/
Fig. 4. Enrolments on PGCE ITET courses by sex, Wales, 1994/
95 and 1998/99 (from 36% to 34%), it fell to 30% in 95–2000/01. Source: NAfW/HESA. Note: The figures for 2001/02
1999/00, then remained stable for a year. As can be and 2002/03 available after completion of the analysis show that
seen in Fig. 4, which shows the enrolment frequen- male enrolments for PGCE increased to 495, and the female
cies, this change is largely due to an increase in enrolments decreased slightly to 1025.
female trainees, rather than any dramatic fall in
male entrants. Nevertheless, recent PGCE enrol- compared to only 12,153 by males, a ratio of 62:38.
ment trends have led to an increase in the The percentage of female applications increased
female:male ratio on courses of this type. This trend steadily to 68% in 2002. Thus, the general trend of a
is of concern as it is likely to perpetuate or even rise in applications over the period studied was
exacerbate the sex imbalance that currently exists in accompanied by a slight increase in the proportion
the teaching population. of female applicants.
Examined at the UK level, disaggregated by sex, Table 3 shows UK PGCE applicants disaggre-
the data for applications to PGCE courses reveal gated by sex and age, for the most up-to-date year
that many more female than male students apply for available (2001). In every age category apart from
postgraduate ITET in the UK, in line with the data ‘51+’, female applicants significantly out-numbered
for enrolments in Wales (Table 2). In 1994, for males. In all categories from ‘20–22’ to ‘29–30’ the
example, 20,236 applications were made by females proportional difference between the two sexes
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
320 P. White et al. / Teaching and Teacher Education 22 (2006) 315–326

Table 2
Percentage of female PGCE applicants (UK)

Year 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

All 32,389 33,831 33,920 33,612 31,555 32,914 36,065 40895 48078
Male 12,153 12,090 11,744 11,212 9991 10,350 11,056 12906 15169
Female 20,236 21,741 22,176 22,400 21,523 22,564 25,009 27989 32909
% female 62 64 65 67 68 69 69 68 68

Source: GTTR.

Table 3
Percentage of female PGCE applicants, by age category (UK, 2001)

Age 20–22 23–24 25–26 27–28 29–30 31–35 36–40 41–45 46–50 51+

Apps. 10,179 6883 4145 2854 2044 3807 3057 1905 804 387
Male 2375 1871 1271 1011 770 1421 1002 731 373 231
Female 7804 5012 2874 1843 1274 2386 2055 1174 431 156
% male 77 73 69 65 62 63 67 62 54 40

Source: GTTR (2001, 2002).

Note: The original data was divided into these unequal age categories.

Fig. 5. Post-graduate ITET applicants 2001 (UK), by age and outcome. Source: GTTR (2002).

decreases, becoming progressively more equal, from
one age category to the next. However, the absolute
number of applicants (of both sexes) also falls with
each advance to the next age category, meaning that
the impact of the sex balance on total application
numbers decreases with advancing age. The most
important age categories in terms of teacher supply
are the first three (20–22, 23–24 and 25–26) as they
account for 59% (n ¼ 21,207) of all applicants. It is
in these three age categories where there is the
greatest male:female imbalance. In fact, female
applicants from these youngest three categories
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
P. White et al. / Teaching and Teacher Education 22 (2006) 315–326 321

combined (20–26 years) account for 44% (n ¼ 5. Are recruitment targets being met?
15,690) of all applicants for 2001.
Younger applicants not only account for a One indication of success (or otherwise) in
disproportionate number of applications but also teacher recruitment is the extent to which the
have a more favourable acceptance rate (Fig. 5). government’s targets are met (House of Commons,
Applicants aged 51 and above actually have a 1997a, para. 13, p. vii). In 2001/02 recruitment in
greater chance of being refused a place than being England and Wales showed a significant improve-
offered one, and the odds of being accepted onto a ment on the previous academic year. Recruitment
PGCE course fall dramatically after the age of 24. rose in all subjects, with the exception of Welsh, art
In 2001, of 5954 applicants in their thirties (not and religious education (STRB, 2002). However, for
counting those who withdrew) 2273 (38%) were most subjects the intake was still below the targets
unsuccessful in their application, despite this age (Fig. 6).
group being under-represented in the profession as a The intake targets for maths, science and
whole. Unfortunately, no comparable data relating technology had previously been revised downwards,
to applications to first degree ITET courses were even though vacancies for teachers in these subjects
available. had been increasing (but note that ‘vacancies’ are a
It could be the case that older applicants tend to poor indicator of teacher demand, see: See et al.,
have lower qualifications or less desirable curricula 2004). In maths, for example, the target was reduced
vitae than younger ones. However, this might have from 2700 in 1996 to 1691 in 1997. This represented
more to do with individuals’ social and historical a drop of approximately 40%, even though only
circumstances than their suitability for teacher 66% of the previous year’s (1996) target was met.
training. As higher education institutions often And, despite this reduction, maths recruitment in
apply different entry criteria for mature applicants 1997 still only reached 63% of the new target. These
to undergraduate courses, it may be timely to reductions in targets were implemented against the
investigate the extent which similar policies are backdrop of what was then an increasing student
applied with respect to both post- and under- population in secondary schools, rising pupil:tea-
graduate ITET. The disparity between age groups, cher ratios, and increased teacher vacancies (See
in both the number of applicants and the proportion et al., 2004). The number of full-time equivalent
accepted, has implications for current and future (FTE) pupils in maintained secondary schools in
imbalances in the age profile of the teaching England and Wales had risen from 3.24 million in
profession and for teacher supply in general. 1997 to 3.5 million in 2002 (STRB, 2002) but

3500
Intake & recruitment numbers

3000 2001/02 targets

2001/02 recruitment
2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
)

PE

E
g
hs

c
ry
e

gy

y
sh

Ar

i
ph
en

nc

R
us
to
at

lo
el
ie

ra
s

m
no
W
m

hi
sc

og
ch
c
(in

ge
te
s
ge
ua
ng
la

Subjects

Fig. 6. ITET recruitment and intake targets, England and Wales, 2001/02. Source: School Teachers’ Review Body (2002).
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
322 P. White et al. / Teaching and Teacher Education 22 (2006) 315–326
projections show that the number is likely to peak at
3.56 million by the year 2005 before starting to fall
(School Teachers’ Review Body, 2001). It was not
until 2000 that intake targets for these subjects were
raised again.
Although the Department for Education and
Employment (DfEE, as it then was) published an
explanatory paper on the model and assumptions
they used in setting targets (Department for
Education and Employment (DfEE), 1998b) im-
portant questions remain about how intake targets
are set. There have been suggestions that targets
were actually based upon how many new teachers
could be afforded, rather than on actual demand
(House of Commons, 1997a, 1997b) but other
plausible explanations have also been proposed.
The considerable reduction of targets in 1996 and
1997, in the face of rising pupil numbers, was seen
by some as indicative of the lack of government
confidence in increasing the number of teachers.
Alternatively it has been suggested that this reduc-
tion was an effort to undo a ‘mistake’ made in 1995
when there was an unexplained, and perhaps
unwarranted, upward revision of targets (House of
Commons, 1997a, Vol. I, para 15). The indicative
targets for 1997, issued in 1994, appeared to be in
line with the long-term trend. And if the long-term
projection for 1997 had been considered when
targets were set for 1995, there might not have been
the controversial reductions in the following 2 years.
The consequences of this ‘short-termism’ displayed
in target-setting in the late 1990s should be a
warning of the importance of considering much
longer-term trends in the planning of teacher
demand and supply.
Nevertheless, the scale of the targets is still
challenging. To achieve the PGCE secondary maths
intake target for 2001/02, for example, would mean
recruiting nearly half of all maths students graduat-
ing in 2001 (STRB, 2001). To aim higher might not
be practicable given the attractive alternatives
available to such students (Howson, 2001). Simi-
larly, to meet PGCE targets in modern foreign
languages and RE over 40% of the UK graduate
output in these subjects would be needed each year
(Schoolsnet, 2001). A recent study by Donnelly
(2002) showed that only about 20% of science and
mathematics undergraduates seriously considered
teaching as a career. A decade ago the proportion
was about one-third. Graduate physicists are ‘more
attracted to those jobs where they can fully use and
develop their physics skills and knowledge’. They
are not attracted to the prospect of having to teach
across the sciences (Physics for Policy Makers,
2001). So the problem of attracting more teachers in
shortage areas is more than the perceived unattrac-
tiveness of teaching as a career, or poor pay, for
example.
The number of students being taught to graduate
level in several National Curriculum subjects
remains relatively low, even though graduate-level
study is now required to teach these subjects in
schools. Taking into account the fact that the
teaching profession must compete with other
industries recruiting graduates, the number entering
ITET in recent years might be considered to be
healthy. According to the Teacher Training Agency
(TTA) more than two-thirds of employers of all
types reported difficulty recruiting graduates of the
right quality between 2000 and 2001. The problem
was particularly acute among organisations recruit-
ing maths and science graduates (STRB, 2002). It
would seem that the teaching profession might not
be experiencing specific recruitment difficulties but
only those affecting graduate employers more
widely. To overcome this would, presumably,
require a dismantling of the National Curriculum,
or a weakening of the requirement for specialist
graduates in all areas, or a considerable increase in
the proportion of undergraduates in shortage areas.
According to the Higher Education Statistics
Agency (HESA), between 1997 and 2001 the total
number of graduates (including postgraduates, first
degree and other undergraduates) increased from
431,900 to 470,300 (an increase of 8.9%). In
contrast, graduations from the physical sciences,
engineering, and technology declined by approxi-
mately 10% during the same period. There are
several issues here. One is that rather than increas-
ing at the same rate as the demands of the labour
market, the number of graduates in shortage
subjects is either not rising fast enough or actually
decreasing. The second is the reluctance of these
graduates to go into teaching. The underlying
problem, however, is the difficulty in getting
students to opt for these subjects at higher levels
in school and university. The relatively small pool of
individuals continuing to study these ‘shortage’
subjects inevitably leads to fierce competition for
their expertise once they have gained qualifications
in these scarce skills.
Some commentators have argued that recruit-
ment to PGCE courses is closely related to the peaks
and troughs in new graduate unemployment, and
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
P. White et al. / Teaching and Teacher Education 22 (2006) 315–326 323

that the current teacher supply ‘crisis’ is due to high 1400

employment in the economy making it difficult to Actual Enrolments
recruit graduates (Schoolsnet, 2001). However, even 1200 Target Enrolments
Projected Completions
if overall teaching recruitment targets were met,
there would still be shortages in some regions. This 1000
is because the DfEE (as it then was) did not take
800
into consideration regional differences in its calcula-
tion of recruitment targets. According to the DfEE
600
‘the number of teachers needed, minus the number
in post and those known to be returning to teaching, 400
will give the number to be trained nationally’ (Dean,
2000, p. 4). A report by the Education Management 200
Information Exchange at the National Foundation
for Educational Research (NFER) suggested this 0
formula might be partly responsible for the con- 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
tinued teacher shortages in some regions because Fig. 7. Target and actual BEd enrolment, and completion rates,
‘such a view seems to assume that those trained Wales, 1993–1998. Adapted from: Welsh Office (1999, p. 73).
teachers will fill automatically the teaching vacan- Based on mean completion rate from 1993 to 1996 (78.75%).
cies wherever they appear. The regional data suggest
otherwise’ (p. 4).
1800
6. Completion rates 1600

In addition to the number of yearly enrolments 1400

on undergraduate and postgraduate courses, the last 1200
Departmental Report published by the Welsh Office
1000
contains information relating to teacher training
enrolments from the years 1993 to 1998, the 800
corresponding intake targets for both types of
600
course for each year, and the percentage of trainees
successfully graduating in each year. Although the 400 Target Enrolment
‘completion rates’ refer to cohorts of trainees 200
Actual Enrolments
enrolling in earlier years, it is nevertheless useful Projected Completions
information. One use for these data is to calculate 0
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
the average number of trainees successfully gradu-
ating each year, for the period under study. A Fig. 8. Target and actual PGCE enrolment, and completion
‘projected completion rate’ can then be used to rates, Wales, 1993–1998. Adapted from: Welsh Office (1999, p.
73). Based on mean completion rate from 1993 to 1996 (78.75%).
anticipate the number of successful graduates for all
years for which there is complete enrolment data,
including 1997 and 1998, but where data on
completion rates is not provided. and targets. It may be that enrolment targets are set
As can be seen, enrolment on first degree ITET with an expected ‘drop-out’ rate already factored
courses in Wales exceeded targets in every year from into the equation and such a shortfall may be
1993 to 1998 (Fig. 7). Also, the general trend both expected. Indeed, any targets must account for
for targets and actual enrolments appears to be trainee attrition if they are to be effective. However,
downward. Only once, in 1993, does the number of it is not clear whether this is the case or not, as no
trainees expected to graduate (based on the mean clear information could be found on this aspect of
completion rate of 79% from 1993 to 1998) come target-setting procedures.
close to the enrolment targets set for that year. Of In contrast to enrolments on BEd courses, PGCE
course, enrolment targets should be set with future enrolments only exceeded the targets in two (1995
graduations in mind, but it is interesting that and 1996) out of the 6 years shown in Fig. 8.
completions consistently fall below both enrolments However, the completion rates were higher than for
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
324 P. White et al. / Teaching and Teacher Education 22 (2006) 315–326
PGCE
4 yr First Degree
2 yr First Degree
3 yr First Degree
1400
1200
1000
800
600
400
200
0
1995/96 1996/97 1997/98 1998/99
Fig. 9. Students successfully completing full-time ITET courses,
by qualification in Wales 1995/96–1998/99. Source: HESA/
National Statistics SDB 81/2000. Note: 3-year courses for ITET
first degree, leading to QTS, were introduced in 1996/97.
BEd courses and, with proportionally more trainees
graduating, the number of projected graduations
almost reached the target enrolment figures in the
same 2 years. But in the remaining 4 years projected
graduations were far below enrolment targets, by as
much as 331 in 1998. The trend from 1996 to 1998
suggests a widening shortfall between target enrol-
ments and projected completions.
From this consideration of data on ITET
completions in Wales it is clear that, as is the case
with enrolments, graduates from PGCE courses
considerably outnumber their undergraduate ITET
counterparts (Fig. 9). As was discussed earlier,
PGCE students have the higher completion rate,
making the difference between the number of
completions in the two groups even more pro-
nounced. It is interesting to note, however, that in
1998/99—the first year in which students graduated
from 2-year BEd courses—the total number of
undergraduate completions was much higher than
the previous year. Instead of displacing students on
3-year courses, the introduction of 2-year BEds led
to an overall increase in the number of under-
graduate trainees. However, because every year a
large number of ITET applicants are unsuccessful,
increases of this type are likely to be the conse-
quence of higher enrolment targets and the creation
of extra training places, rather than being indicative
of greater interest amongst potential recruits to the
profession. By 2002/03 NAfW figures show a total
of 2115 successful completions, of which 67% were
PGCEs.
Table 4
PGCE and BEd completion rates (%), Wales 1993–1996
Course/year 1993 1994 1995 1996
PGCE 93 92 93 89
BEd 74 87 80 74
Source: Welsh Office (1999, p. 73).
The actual completion rates, measured in terms of
the number of trainees graduating each year as a
proportion of the cohort enrolling on the course, are
shown in Table 4. The rate for trainees on PGCE
courses is consistently higher than those on BEd
courses. This might be explained by the fact that, as
entrants to PGCEs have already completed an
undergraduate degree, individuals with a propensity
to drop out of higher education courses will not
have reached the application stage for this type of
training. More simply, it could be that PGCE
students are of a higher quality and therefore more
likely to pass the assessments. Whatever the
explanation, the differential completion rates have
implications for both target-setting and for planning
teacher recruitment more generally.
7. Conclusions
We find that there is no overall problem with
teacher supply, and similar studies in other devel-
oped countries have come to similar conclusions
(e.g. Ingersoll, 2001). As with all professions there is
competition for graduates, especially those with
degrees in maths and/or science. However, our
analysis shows there is certainly no overall shortage
of applicants to ITET, as nearly twice as many
interested individuals apply as are accepted. The
number of applicants is growing, even in shortage
subject areas and for PGCE secondary courses, and
so it is possible to increase the number of trainees
substantially. There is a steady trend away from
undergraduate ITET routes in favour of postgrad-
uate courses. PGCE trainees demonstrate a higher
overall completion rate, so this may represent an
improvement in the ‘efficiency’ of ITET, an
important point since first degree ITET is currently
losing 25% of its intake before completion.
Increased PCGE enrolments may also be in line
with the wishes of employers, who reportedly prefer
young PGCE graduates. However, their reported
preference for entrants to the profession in their
early twenties (see above) may present further
 ARTICLE IN PRESS
P. White et al. / Teaching and Teacher Education 22 (2006) 315–326
barriers to older trainees, who already have a lower
chance of being accepted on training courses. It is
the case, however, that many more of these are
female, and applicants of both sexes are most likely
to be in their twenties. The chances of being offered
an ITET place decline with age, despite an
imbalance in the age profile of the current teaching
workforce. We also found that trainees from ethnic
minority backgrounds and those with disabilities
were under-represented in training in Wales (White
et al., 2003) but the small numbers involved make it
difficult to draw firm conclusions in these areas.
The media have begun to relay the message that
the teacher supply situation may be improving.
Applications for training places have been reported
as rising (Thornton, 2003), falling school rolls have
been predicted (Arkin, 2003) and more students
have reported considering entering teaching as a
profession (Revell, 2003). As we have shown,
however, the previously reported ‘crisis’ was largely
mythical. Our re-examination of national data
demonstrates the importance for policy makers of
not reacting too hastily to reports of ‘crises’ without
examining large-scale data and considering long
term trends. It is equally important for researchers
to be aware of their potential as catalysts for
creating ‘moral panics’ and to be cautious before
making bold ‘headline grabbing’ statements. Much
of the educational research conducted in the UK is
based on evidence that is only local in its scope and
may be weakly (or even inversely) related to
national trends. We hope that future studies make
more use of publicly available secondary data to
inform their research, whatever the nature and
scope of their enquiries.
The other key limitation on teacher supply is the
number of students pursuing ‘shortage subjects’
beyond compulsory schooling. This is most relevant
for maths and science subjects, where there is
competition with other sectors of industry for a
diminishing number of graduates. This kind of
problem can be remedied in the long term by
encouraging more students to continue to study
these areas of the curriculum. How this is to be done
is another question, but it is only through addres-
sing this issue that teacher shortages in these
subjects will be ameliorated, albeit several years
down the line. In the short term the problem might
be remedied by allowing those without a named
degree in a National Curriculum subject to teach
shortage subjects. Many excellent mathematicians
(at A-level) become geographers, psychologists,
325
statisticians and economists, for example, at uni-
versity.
Target-setting appears to be one of the ‘black
arts’ of policy making. It is unclear exactly how
enrolment targets are formulated, especially with
regard to the variables considered relevant to the
calculations. Historically, targets have been unre-
lated to pupil numbers, for example, giving the
impression that they are more closely linked to what
can be afforded than what is needed. Regional
differences certainly do not appear to be deemed
important, as no account for geographical variation
is made in the DfES formula which is available. In
our full report, a large number of important factors
influencing teacher supply and demand are explored
(White et al., 2003). Some of these are not
immediately obvious (such as the absolute number
of schools) while other commonly used indicators
(such as advertised vacancies) are revealed as being
of little practical value for policy formation. What is
clear, however, is that present ITET providers are
accepting only just over half of all applicants. Are
all the other applicants to ITET really unsuitable for
training? Unless this actually is the case there are
many potential teachers being turned away at the
first hurdle. And if it is true, then it must be time to
radically revise the application guidelines for ITET.
Acknowledgements
The work described here was funded by the
ESRC Grant R42200034537, and the General
Teaching Council for Wales. We would like to
thank Jamie Lewis for his help in updating some of
the figures.
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