Академический Документы
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Культура Документы
Miguel
Sarmiento*
Kyubong
Cho+
Jaemyun
Leeφ
SEMINARIO
DE
ECONOMIA
BANCO
DE
LA
REPUBLICA,
BOGOTA,
D.C.
AGOSTO
15
DE
2012
*Research
in
progress.
Please
do
not
cite
or
distribute
without
permission
of
the
authors.
*Central
Bank
of
Colombia
and
Department
of
Economics
at
the
University
of
Illinois
at
Urbana-‐
φFinance Ministry of South Korea and Department of Economics at the UIUC.
Agenda
I. Introduc%on
and
mo%va%on
II. Implica%ons
of
FXI
III. Empirical
evidence
on
FXI
effec%veness
IV. The
methodological
approach
to
evaluate
FXI
effec%veness
V. Results
VI. Final
remarks
I.
Introduc%on
and
Mo%va%on
Foreign
exchange
interven%on
(FXI)
(purchases
or
sales
of
foreign
currency
in
the
FX
market)
is
the
main
tool
used
by
central
banks
in
order
to:
i. Reduce
the
excessive
exchange
rate
vola%lity.
ii. Moderate
persistent
deprecia%on
or
apprecia%on
of
the
exchange
rate
by
affec%ng
its
level
or
speed.
iii. FXI
is
mostly
employed
to
reduce
external
vulnerability
by
increasing
the
buffer
of
foreign
reserves.
I.
Introduc%on
and
Mo%va%on
Since
2004
most
emerging
economies
had
exhibited
an
increasingly
apprecia3on
of
the
exchange
rate.
i. The
fiscal
and
trade
imbalances
of
the
U.S.
and
European
economies.
ii. Interest
rates
differen%al
had
increased
capital
inflows
to
emerging
economies.
iii. Robust
economic
growth
and
macroeconomic
stability
also
had
influenced
these
capital
inflows.
FXI
and
the
foreign
exchange
rate
trend
in
selected
emerging
economies
(2004
–
2010)
fr
• When
local
interest
rates
are
higher
than
the
rates
of
return
of
the
foreign
reserves,
the
steriliza%on
creates
a
nega%ve
impact
on
central
bank
balance
sheet
(Togo,
2007).
• In
most
cases,
the
FXI
is
the
cause
or
it
is
associated
to
a
higher
vola%lity
of
the
exchange
rate
(Baillie
and
Osterberg,
1997;
Beine
and
Laurent,
2003;
Frenkel
et
al.,
2003;
Edison,
2006;
Fratzscher,
2006).
III.
Empirical
evidence
on
FXI
effec%veness
• In
some
countries
the
FXI´s
effect
on
exchange
rate
level
has
a
short
dura%on.
• Several
studies
suggest
that
the
vast
majority
of
the
effect
of
an
interven%on
on
the
exchange
rate
occurs
during
the
day
in
which
it
is
conducted,
with
only
a
smaller
impact
on
subsequent
days
(Menkhoff,
2010).
• For
instance,
one
week
dura%on
in
the
case
of
Japan
and
Australia
(Kearns
and
Rigobon,
2005)
or
about
three
weeks
in
Colombia
(Kamil,
2008;
Echavarria
et.
al.,
2009).
Evidence
on
FXI
effec%veness:
deprecia%on
and
vola%lity
3.0 10.0
2.5 5.0
2.0 0.0
1.5 -‐5.0
1.0 -‐10.0
0.5 -‐15.0
Aug-‐05
Aug-‐06
Aug-‐07
Nov-‐04
Nov-‐05
Nov-‐06
Nov-‐07
Feb-‐04
Feb-‐05
Feb-‐06
Feb-‐07
May-‐04
May-‐05
May-‐06
May-‐07
Source:
Bloomberg,
FMI,
central
banks,
and
authors
calcula%ons.
FXI
%%
change
of GDP (right) Local
c urrency
per
U.S
dollar
Jan
2 004=100
(left)
3.0 10.0
2.5 5.0
2.0 0.0
1.5 -‐5.0
1.0 -‐10.0
0.5 -‐15.0
Mexico
Australia
0.0 -‐20.0
Aug-‐04
Aug-‐05
Aug-‐06
Aug-‐07
Nov-‐04
Nov-‐05
Nov-‐06
Nov-‐07
Feb-‐04
Feb-‐05
Feb-‐06
Feb-‐07
May-‐04
May-‐05
May-‐06
• The
average
FXI
(purchases)
during
the
period
was
1,03%
of
the
GDP.
• Brazil,
Colombia,
India
and
Thailand
exhibited
more
frequent
and
higher
levels
of
interven%on.
• In
addi%on,
in
these
4
countries
also
the
exchange
rate
apprecia%on
was
more
persistent
than
in
the
other
studied
countries.
• A
permanent
deprecia%on
of
the
exchange
rate
was
presented
only
in
Australia
during
2007.
2.
The
model
ei,t = β1 + β2 FXI i,t + β3 ( ii,t – ii,t* ) + β4 EMBI i,t + β5 Pi,t M + β6 Pi,t E
+ β6 Pi,t F + Ui,t
ei,t
:
log
of
the
nominal
exchange
rate
(against
USD)
(introduced
in
first
and
second
difference
to
es%mate
the
rate
“speed”
and
pace
“accelera%on”
of
apprecia%on).
FXI i,t
:
posi%ve
change
in
the
stock
of
foreign
reserves
(purchases
of
USD)
as
a
percentage
of
GDP.
(ii,t – ii,t*):
the
difference
of
domes%c
interest
rate
and
U.S
FedFunds
interest
rate.
EMBIi,t
:
the
EMBI
spread
(or
sovereign
CDS).
Pi,t M
:
metal
and
mining
USD
index.
Pi,t E
:
CMDINRG3
index
(Bloomberg
Energy
Index).
Pi,t F
:
CMDIFBR3
index
(Bloomberg
Food
Index).
2.
The
model
implica%ons
• Under
this
approach
we
that
an
increase
in
foreign
reserves
or
purchases
of
USD
(our
FXI
proxy)
tends
to
reduce
the
rate
(speed)
and
the
pace
(accelera%on)
of
the
exchange
rate
apprecia%on.
• A
posi%ve
(and
wider)
gap
on
the
interest
rate
differen%al
will
increase
capital
inflows
which
will
increase
the
speed
and
accelera%on
of
the
exchange
rate
apprecia%on.
• Risky
economy
(higher
EMBI
spread)
s%mulates
capital
ouilows
and
tends
to
reduce
the
exchange
rate
apprecia%on.
• Indexes
of
interna%onal
metal,
energy
and
food
prices
are
introduced
as
a
way
to
control
for
high
frequency
movements
in
terms-‐of-‐trade.
3.
The
es%ma%on
process
• Because
nominal
exchange
rate
can
be
affected
by
foreign
reserves
and
at
the
same
%me,
the
laser
can
be
influenced
by
the
former,
that
simultaneity
can
cause
the
problem
of
endogeneity.
• Empirical
literature
suggests
es%ma%on
of
2SIV
model
in
order
to
deal
with
the
endogeinity
(Rigobon
and
Kearns,
2005;
Adler
and
Tovar,
2011).
• A
first
reac%on
func%on
es%ma%on
was
insufficient
(the
IV
was
no
significant)
for
our
current
data
due
to
the
lack
of
informa%on
about
FXI.
• However,
as
a
first
step,
we
use
Fixed-‐effects-‐panel-‐data
model
and
RSE,
with
the
first
and
second
difference
of
exchange
rate;
and
ini%ally
we
will
focus
on
the
pace
of
apprecia%on.
V.
Results
• As
we
expect,
es%ma%ons
do
not
detect
an
impact
of
FXI
on
the
rate
of
apprecia%on
(i.e.
endogeneity),
but
a
sta%s%cally
significant
effects
on
the
pace
“accelera%on”
of
apprecia%on
was
found.
• The
coefficient
point
es%mates
suggest
that
an
addi%onal
1
%
of
GDP
in
FXI
(about
the
average
monthly
purchases
in
the
sample)
would
lead
to
a
2%
slowdown
in
the
pace
of
apprecia%on.
• As
UIP
theory
predicts
interest
rate
differen%al
has
a
significant
effect
(reduc%on)
on
both
the
rate
and
pace
of
apprecia%on.
• M
&
M
and
Food
price
indexes
also
has
an
sta%s%cal
impact
but
with
a
small
economic
effect.
VI.
Final
Remarks
• The
literature
showed
that
due
FXI
should
be
a
sterilized
interven3on,
when
there
is
a
prolonged
interven%on,
it
leads
to
Quasi-‐fiscal-‐costs,
future
monetary
and
financial
sector
imbalances
and
unwelcome
Low-‐exchange-‐rate-‐vola%lity
effects.
• Empirical
research
recognized
that
central
bank
interven%on
policy
can
usually
be
characterized
as
“leaning
against
the
wind”:
rela%vely
low
effect
on
the
level
of
exchange
rate
and
short
length
of
the
interven%on.
• We
find
significant
effects
of
FXI
on
the
pace
(accelera%on)
of
apprecia%on,
which
is
one
of
the
main
goals
of
FXI.
1.
Model
and
Data
Improvements
We
are
working
on
a
more
detailed
data
base
on
FXI
to
improve
the
IV
process.
i. Episodes
of
FXI
(before,
during
and
a^er
financial
crisis
of
2008)
ii. Subsamples
by
region
(LAC,
Asia,
Small-‐Developed
countries)
in
order
to
find
differences
by
financial
integra%on.
iii. Studying
the
poriolio
and
signaling
channels
effects
of
the
FXI
(other
effec%veness
measures)