1. ( ) MISSION.

O/O C/JTF DEPLOYS TO AZERBAIJAN TO DETER AHURASTAN

AGGRESSION. BE PREAPARED TO DEFEAT AHURASTAN ATTACK INTO AZERBAIJAN.

BE PREPARED TO CONDUCT POST-COMBAT STABILITY OPERATIONS.

2. ( ) SITUATION AND COURSES OF ACTION

A. ( ) THE TRANSCAUCASUS/CASPIAN REGION CONTINUES TO DETERIORATE

FOLLOWING EXPLOSION DAMAGE TO THE BAKU-TBILISI-CEYHAN (BTC) PIPELINE FOR

AN ANTICIPATED TWO MONTHS; ATTACKS ON US, UK, AND CANADIAN EMBASSIES IN

BAKU. ATTACKS WERE CARRIED OUT BY AZERI FUNDAMENTALISTS, BELIEVED TO

BE MEMBERS OF THE SOUTH AZERI PEOPLES ARMY (SAPA) IN JANUARY 2017. THE

UNITED NATIONS (UN) SECURITY COUNCIL HAS AUTHORIZED A CHAPTER VI

PEACEKEEPING FORCE FOR THE NAGORNO-KARABAKH (N-K) REGION. UN HAS

DEPLOYED A BDE SIZED FORCE TO THE N-K REGION AND ESTABLISHED THE UN

INTERIM ADMINISTRATION MISSION. UN FORCES ARE COMPOSED OF FORCES FROM

ITALY, RUSSIA, GERMANY, IRELAND, AND BELIGIUM. CLASHES BETWEEN GEORGIAN

MILITARY AND ABKHAZIA MILITIA CONTINUE. US AMBASSADOR TO AZERBAIJAN (AZ)

HAS ORDERED THE DEPARTURE OF DEPENDENTS AND NON-ESSENTIAL EMBASSY

PERSONNEL FROM BAKU AS WELL AS HUMANITARIAN AND CIVIC ASSISTANCE UNITS

OPERATING IN THE COUNTRY. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT OTHER WESTERN

EMBASSIES WILL FOLLOW SUIT. MOST SIGNIFICANTLY, US NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE

ASSETS HAVE DETECTED INCREASE MOVEMENT OF SPECIAL PURPOSE FORCES

FROM AHURASTAN (AH) INTO AZ. THE GOVERNMENT OF AZERBAIJAN (GOAZ) HAS

BEEN ADVISED OF THIS INTELLIGENCE. ALL ACTIONS HAVE RESULTED IN AN

INCREASED LEVEL OF TENSION ACROSS THE REGION.

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 B. ( ) ASSIGNED AND SUPPORTING FORCES ARE IN ACCORDANCE WITH

CURRENT CJCS WARNORD REF TO EUCOM CONPLAN 4567-15

C. ( ) COMMANDER, EUCOM COMMAND HAS DEVELOPED THE FOLLOWING

COURSES OF ACTIONS (COAs)

(1) () COA 1. UNDER THE AUSPICES OF A COMBINED JOINT EXERCISE OF CONPLAN

4567-15, AN AETF HQ AND SUPPORTING LOGISTICAL ENABLERS WILL DEPLOY TO

JOA AND ESTABLISH JFACC OPERATIONS. APPROXIMATELY N+7, MEU CONDUCTS

JOINT AMPHIBIOUS EXERCISES AND SETS CONDITIONS FOR DEPLOYMENT OF

FOLLOW-ON GROUND FORCES. REMAINING FORCES MOBILIZE AND BEGIN

MOVEMENT TO JOA. AT APPROXIMATELY N+60, MEB, SBCT, IBCT, AND 1 HBCT

DEPLOY INTO THEATER, DEFEND AZ TERRITORY, AND DEFEAT AH ATTACK. ON

ORDER COALITION FORCES WILL COUNTER-ATTACK TO DESTROY AH FORCES AND

RESTORE AZ PRE-CONFLICT BORDER. UPON CONCLUSION OF HOSTILITIES,

COALITION FORCES CONDUCT PEACE AND STABILITY OPERATIONS. BE PREPARED

TO TRANSITION AND REDEPLOY.

(2) () COA2. THE MARINE EXPEDITIONARY BRIGADE (MEB) AND STRIKER BRIGADE

COMBAT TEAM (SBCT) SIMULTANEOUSLY CROSS THE AZ /GEORGIA BORDER.

DURING SHAPING OPERATIONS ESTABLISHMENT OF SPOD IN PORT P’OT’I, APOD IN

TBILISI, SF GROUP(-) CONDUCTING FID TO MOBILIZE AZ FORCES IN DEFENSE OF

BORDER AND BAKU, AND THE BUILD UP OF FIGHTER AIRCRAFT IN REGION ARE

PARAMOUNT. DURING SUSTAINMENT OPERATIONS, ONE SUSTAINMENT BDE

CONDUCTS PORT OPENING AND OPERATIONS, ANOTHER CONDUCTS THEATER

DISTRIBUTION FROM TBILISI, WHILE A THIRD CONDUCTS OVERALL FORCE

SUSTAINMENT IN GANCA. THE FLOW OF FORCES INTO AZ WILL SERVE AS A

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TRIGGER FOR ATTACK. THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD OF ATTACK ON SPOD, APOD, AND

LOC INFRASTRUCTURE WHICH WILL SLOW THE FLOW OF FORCES INTO THEATER

AND JEOPARDIZE FURTHER OPERATIONS.

3. ( ) ANALYSIS OF OPPOSING COA.