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ESTATE POTENTIAL
Presented by:
Marc Townsend – Managing Director
• Conspicuous consumption
• China + 1, APRC, the Stock Market and entry to WTO has put Vietnam on the radar
screen, coupled with the ML report in Feb and the Euro Money Conference in Mar 2006
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• World leaders in pepper, coffee, cashew, shoes, fish/prawns, oil & gas exports
• “If you build it, they will come” still exists but may not last much longer
• Many similarities to China in the early 90s in terms of work ethic, chaos on the
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350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
04
04
04
04
05
05
05
05
06
06
06
06
07
1/
2/
3/
4/
1/
2/
3/
4/
1/
2/
3/
4/
1/
Q
Q
Office Stock at the beginning of the quarter New supply during the quarter
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160
140
Trade Agreement
100
80
60
40
And the upward trend will continue due to:
20 • Growing demand
• Delays in new supply
0
Q1 98
Q2 98
Q3 98
Q4 98
Q1 99
Q2 99
Q3 99
Q4 99
Q1 00
Q2 00
Q3 00
Q4 00
Q1 01
Q2 01
Q3 01
Q4 01
Q1 02
Q2 02
Q3 02
Q4 02
Q1 03
Q2 03
Q3 03
Q4 03
Q1 04
Q2 04
Q3 04
Q4 04
Q1 05
Q2 05
Q3 05
Q4 05
Q1 06
Q2 06
Q3 06
Q4 06
Q1.07
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EVN
Gemadept
Pacific Place Asiana Plaza
Sailing Tower Diamond Plaza
Metropolitan
Bao Viet
Vietcombank
Me Linh Point
Petro Vietnam,
Dist. 1 E – Town 2, Tan Binh District
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Occupancy 100%
Q1/2006 Q1/2007
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Occupancy 99%
Q1/2006 Q1/2007
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Occupancy 95%
Q1/2006 Q1/2007
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Lancaster 1,600
Q 1 .2 0 0 7
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273,146
180,657 187,824
158,798
Rosaco Tower Petro VN VP Bank Tower Sacom Bank Centec Asiana Financial Tower Vietcombank
Plaza Tower
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HCMC Power
Head Office
20,000 sqm A&B Financial Tower
(10,000 sqm 25,000 sqm 100,000 sqm
for lease) 2010 2011
Gemadept Times Square
16,500 sqm 31,000 sqm
(10,000 sqm
for lease) 2010
12,000 50
40
9,000
30
P ro j ects
Condos
6,000
20
3,000
10
0 0
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Uni ts 648 0 0 0 150 0 0 124 1,234 3,418 7,644 10,37 11,47 7,270
P r oj e ct s 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 3 16 27 42 33 9
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2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
1999 2003 2004 2005 2006 Q1/07
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4 ,0 0 0 T he La nc a s t e r
US $ 3 ,4 5 0
3 ,5 0 0
3 ,0 0 0
A v a lo n
2 ,5 0 0 T he La nc a s t e r
US $ 2 ,8 0 0
US $ 2 ,0 5 0 Indo c hina P a rk
2 ,0 0 0 A v a lo n
Indo c hina P a rk T o we r
US $ 2 ,0 8 9
T o we r US $ 18 0 0
1,5 0 0
US $ 1,5 0 0
1,0 0 0 H o rizo n
H o rizo n US $ 1,3 0 0
500 US 8 5 0
-
2003 2004 2005 Q 1/ 0 6 Q2/ 06 Q3/ 06 Q4/ 06 Q 1/ 0 7
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4 ,0 0 0
3 ,5 0 0
3 ,0 0 0
T he M a no r
2 ,5 0 0 US $ 2 ,2 0 0
2 ,0 0 0
S a igo n P e a rl
US $ 1,5 0 0
1,5 0 0
S a igo n P e a rl R iv e r G a rde n
1,0 0 0 T he M a no r US $ 1,10 0 US $ 1,4 0 0
US $ 1,0 0 0 R iv e r G a rde n
500 US $ 9 0 0
-
2003 2004 2005 Q 1/ 0 6 Q2/ 06 Q3/ 06 Q4/ 06 Q 1/ 0 7
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36000 80%
27000 60%
18000 40%
9000 20%
0 0%
1994 1998 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Accumulation of 648 798 922 3226 6284 12082 22755 36909
remaining units
Acummulation of sold 0 72 100 708 2,609 6,913 12,810 19,517
units
Average ratio between 0% 9% 11% 22% 42% 57% 56% 53%
sold and available
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12,000 50
40
9,000
30
6,000
20
3,000
10
0 0
2007 2008 2009
Central Garden-D.1 Hung Vuong Plaza-D.5 Cantavil-D.2 River Garden-D.2 Capitaland Vista-D.2 Ben Thanh Orient
Plaza-D.1
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9More buyers have real needs and there will not be as many
as speculators as previously.
150%
100%
90%
70%
50% US $ 2 , 4 0 0
50% 30% 33%
20%
US $ 1 , 0 0 0 US $ 1 , 5 0 0 U$ S 7 0 0
US $ 6 8 0 3%
0%
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Phu Gia - PMH town Villa Riviera - D.2 Thu Duc Garden Home
(launched in 2001) (launched in 2004) (launched in 2005)
Phu GIa – PMH town Thao Nguyen SG-D.9 Thu Duc Garden Home-TD Villa Riviera – D.2 An Phu Dong Villa – D.12
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rt
a
k
s
ew
n
t
C
ur
rt
e)
i te
ar
az
ou
sio
CM
ou
ac
Negatives:
Co
Vi
m
Su
Pl
C
an
rC
nd
Pl
tH
ty
d
T
T
na
M
Ci
on
HB
LT
an
La
o
se
do
ell
lk
am
ce
er
9 Difficult Termination fo
Se
nc
(O
m
or
Di
ha
So
N
on
tC
at
er
Sh
m
So
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Nguyen U
4 450 $5,000 $11
Di
Thao Dien
4 400 $2,500 $6.25
Compound
Thao Dien
2 200 $900 $4.50
Villa
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Pasteur Court
Pasteur Street, February/March
228 27,531 21 - 32 2-4 bdrs
District 3, 5 minutes 2007
to CBD
The Lancaster
Le Thanh Ton February/ March
40 - 50 3,300 30 - 38 1-3 bdrs
Street, District 1, 2007
CBD
Green Hills
Lot 25, Quang
Trung Software February 2007 100 11,300 11 - 20 1-4 bdrs
Park, District 12, 40
minutes to CBD
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16,000
1000
14,000
800
12,000
600
10,000
400
8,000
200
6,000
0
2000 2007
4,000
VN index
2,000
0
2000 2007
VN Index: increased by 9.5 times Market cap: increased by 300 times
Market cap Client Logo
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FPT- Technology
Trương Gia Bình – Chairman &
1 Investment and FPT 147,125,000
General Director
Development Co.
FPT- Technology
Lê Quang Tiến – Vice Chairman &
2 Investment and FPT 106,625,000
Deputy Director
Development Co.
FPT- Technology
Bùi Quang Ngọc - Vice Chairman &
3 Investment and FPT 74,562,500
Deputy Director
Development Co.
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Eden Mall
5,000
Dist. 1
2006
An Dong Plaza
18,000
Dist. 5
Tax Plaza
14,670
Dist. 1
Parkson
17,000
Dist. 1
Thuan Kieu Plaza
21,797
Dist. 5
Zen Plaza
6,810
Dist. 1
1999
Lucky Plaza
1,366
Dist. 1
Diamond Plaza
8,000
Dist. 1
Saigon Superbowl
5,700
Tan Binh
1996
Saigon Centre
6,252
Dist. 1
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80% $120
60% $90
40% $60
20% $30
0% $0
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
CBD prime occupancy rate 100% 100% 100% 100% 98% 95% 95% 95% 94% 100% 100%
CBD prime average rents $32.40 $32.40 $32.40 $35.33 $36.67 $39.95 $43.03 $45.11 $49.21 $59.68 $80.00
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New Delhi 48
Jakarta 70
Beijing 133
S hanghai 185
Taipei 191
S ingapore 290
Bangkok 560
(S ource: CBR E )
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Q1/2006 Q1/2007
Eden Mall
106 Nguyen Hue St, Dist.1
Size: 5,000 sqm
Launch December 2006
Rents: $30 - $70 per sqm
Occupancy 90%
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11,882
Dist. 5
Times Square
12,367
Dist. 1
Sailing Tower
2,560
Dist. 1
2008
4,300
Dist. 5
Opera View
1,280
Dist. 1
(S ou r ce : CBRE )
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SAIGON PARAGON
Nguyen Luong Bang, Dist.7
Retail area: 7,984 sqm
Entertainment area: 7,016 sqm
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No. of 25.00%
Hotels ROOMS
57.50%
17.50% HOTEL ROOMS HOTELS PER
HOTEL
5 – star 3,435 10 344
4 - star 1,447 8 181
3 - star 1,903 23 83
28.05% TOTAL 6,785 41
No. of 50.63%
(Source: CBRE)
Rooms
21.33%
140.00
120.00 D1 5 Star Hotel Rates on
100.00 average range from: $77 -
80.00 $165 per night
60.00
40.00
Average % Increase from
20.00
2005
0.00
2005 2006(Est.)
5 star 108.00 128.20 5 Star - 15.76%
4 star 80.00 94.96 4 Star - 15.75%
3 star 45.00 53.42 3 Star - 15.79%
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84.00%
82.00%
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18,820
Stock as at begining of the quarter 30,000 30.00%
12,869
Vacancy Rate (%)
14,628
200,000 25,000 25.00%
30,000
20,000 20.00%
23,000
150,000
S qm
4,725
S qm
15,000 15.00%
226,681
226,681
213,812
199,184
199,184
199,184
199,184
199,184
100,000
169,184
10,000 10.00%
146,184
141,459
141,459
5,000 5.00%
50,000
0 0.00%
0 -5,000 -5.00%
2004 Q1
2004 Q2
2004 Q3
2004 Q4
2005 Q1
2005 Q2
2005 Q3
2005 Q4
2006 Q1
2006 Q2
2006 Q3
2006 Q4
2004 Q1
2004 Q2
2004 Q3
2004 Q4
2005 Q1
2005 Q2
2005 Q3
2005 Q4
2006 Q1
2006 Q2
2006 Q3
2006 Q4
32.00 30.00
28.00
30.00
26.00
28.00
US $ P S Q MP M
US $ P S Q MP M
24.00
26.00
22.00
24.00
20.00
22.00
18.00
20.00 16.00
2004 Q1
2004 Q2
2004 Q3
2004 Q4
2005 Q1
2005 Q2
2005 Q3
2005 Q4
2006 Q1
2006 Q2
2006 Q3
2006 Q4
2004 Q1
2004 Q2
2004 Q3
2004 Q4
2005 Q1
2005 Q2
2005 Q3
2005 Q4
2006 Q1
2006 Q2
2006 Q3
2006 Q4
Q3-Q4/2006: Sharp increase in Grade A & Grade B office rentals
S qm
S qm
250,000 239,022 100,000
200,000 80,000
71,000
58,000
150,000 60,000
92,900 87,500
100,000 40,000 33,000
58,000 22,350
50,000 20,000
0 0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2007 2008 2009 2010
Location:
6B Trang Tien Str., Hoan Kiem Dist., Hanoi
Developer:
Opera Business Centre JVC
Project:
3 level retail podium attached to 10 level office building
Grade A Mixed-used of Retail / Office
Completion Date & Opening Date:
Q1/2007
Leasable Area:
Land Area – 888sqm
Office GFA – 3,550sqm
Retail NLA – 1,070sqm
Opening date
CB Richard Ellis | Page 56 Q1/2007
HANOI OFFICE MARKET
PACIFIC PLACE
Location:
83B Ly Thuong Kiet St., Hoan Kiem Dist., Hanoi
Developer:
Ever Fortune Co., Ltd
Project:
18 storey Grade A Mixed-use development with 5
basements
Leasable Area:
Office: 18,500sqm GFA
Retail: Approx 8,000sqm
Condos: 22,000sqm (185 units)
Completion Date & Opening Date:
Q1/2007
Opening date
CB Richard Ellis | Page 57 Q1/2007
HANOI SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET
Supply
Hanoi Cumulative Stock of G r ade A& B S e r viced Apar tme nts
1,400
1,200 34
31 39
84
1,000 146
800
Uni t s
519
600
400
347
200
61
0
Q1 2006
Q2 2006
Q3 2006
Q4 2006
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Stock as at begining of the period New supply as at end of the period
$40.00
$20.00
0 0.00%
$10.00
-10 -1.00%
$0.00
Rose Garden
Sedona Suites
Elegant Suites
Sofitel Plaza
Pan Horizon
Mayfair
V- Tower
Daeha Complex
Co Co Village
Oriental Palace
Golden Lodge
Q4/2004
Q1/2005
Q2/2005
Q3/2005
Q4/2005
Q1/2006
Q2/2006
Q3/2006
Q4/2006
200 386
352
100
0
2007 2008 2010
Location:
49 Hang Chuoi St., Hai Ba Trung Dist., Hanoi
Developer:
Green Globe Co., Ltd.
Marketing:
CB Richard Ellis Vietnam- Exclusive Marketing
Agent
Project:
Serviced Apartment Building
15 storey building with 2 basements for parking
Completion Date & Opening Date:
Q1/2007
Leasable Area:
NLA: 5,000sqm
52 Apartments
Opening date
CB Richard Ellis | Page 61 Q1/2007
HANOI SERVICED APARTMENT MARKET
SKYLINE
Location:
4 Dang Dung St., Ba Dinh Dist., Hanoi
Developer:
Nam Hung Corporation (Nahuco)
Marketing:
CB Richard Ellis Vietnam- Exclusive Marketing
Agent
Project:
Serviced Apartment Building
23 storey building with 1 basement
Completion Date & Opening Date:
Q1/2007
Leasable Area:
NLA: 8,714sqm
88 Apartments
Opening date
CB Richard Ellis | Page 62 Q1/2007
HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET
Y-o-Y Visitor Arrivals to Vietnam
Nu mber of Fo reign Visitor A rriva ls to Vietn am
4,000,000 60.0%
3,500,000 50.0%
3,000,000 40.0%
2,500,000 30.0%
ar r i val s
2,000,000 20.0%
1,500,000 10.0%
1,000,000 0.0%
500,000 -10.0%
0 -20.0%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Number of foreign tourist arrivals y-o-y change
800 2,200
Taiwanese Japanese Tourism Business
2,000
700 French American Visitting Other
British Chinese 1,800
600
1,600
Thous.Arrivals
Thous.Arrivals
500 1,400
1,200
400
1,000
300 800
200 600
400
100
200
0 0
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
CB Richard Ellis | Page 64
HANOI HOTEL & TOURISM MARKET
Room Supply: 4,924 (5, 4 and 3 star hotels)
Number of Hotels
NU MB ER OF FOREIG N VISITOR A RRIVA LS 5-star
23.53%
4,000,000
To Vietnam To Hanoi
3,500,000
3,000,000
3-star 4-star
2,500,000
ar r i val s
61.76% 14.71%
2,000,000
1,500,000
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
48.01%
1,131
2,500
- Most of 5 and 4 star hotels
came on stream in 1990s
2,000
- No new supply over last few
R ooms
1,131
years
1,500
- Lack of quality hotel rooms
250
1,000
102
500 102
218
0
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
$140.00 100.00%
100%
$130.00
90%
$120.00 90.00%
80%
$110.00 70%
80.00%
$100.00 60%
50%
$90.00
70.00%
40%
$80.00
30%
$70.00 60.00% 20%
$60.00
10%
$50.00 50.00% 0%
Q2/2005 Q3/2005 Q4/2005 Q1/2006 Q2/2006 Q3/2006 Q4/2006 Jan- Feb- Mar- Apr- May- Jun- Jul-06 Aug- Sep- Oct- Nov- Dec-
06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06 06
Ave. Room rate Ave. Occupancy rate
30,000
2008 Inter-Continental
25,000
2007 Dan Chu Hotel
20,000
R ooms
2007
Metropole 15,000
10,000 11,076
2007 Dong Loi Hotel
5,530
5,000
4,924 6,285
2007 Hoan Kiem Hotel 4,170
0
3- to 5-star 1- to 2-star Others
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
Rooms
Actual Hotel Rooms as at 2005 Hotel Rooms Requirement as at 2020-2005
Ba Dinh 3,520
-Citimart
Hoang Mai 1,004
-Hapro Mart
Hoan Kiem 5,870
Dong Da 11,533
sqm
CB Richard Ellis | Page 69 0 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000
HANOI RETAIL MARKET
SHOPPING CENTRES
Net Ar ea and Aver age Rent of Hanoi Shopping Centr es F utur e Supply of Hanoi Shopping Centr es
Ciputra Mall
sqm sqm
$40.00 60,000
30,000
The Garden
$30.00
20,000 40,000
Viet Tower
$20.00
The Manor
Ruby Plaza
Viglacera
10,000 20,000
$10.00
0 $0.00
Opera Business
0
VKO
Trang Tien Plaza
Me Linh Plaza
Hanoi Tower
V - Tower
Vincom City
Pacific Place
Q1/2007
Q1/2007
Q1/2007
Q3/2007
Q4/2007
Q4/2007
Q1/2008
Q1/2008
2009
2010
Towers
Towers
Centre
Market highlights:
- High occupancy
- Strong & increasing demand
- Limited supply
- Increasing rental
CB Richard Ellis | Page 70
HANOI RETAIL MARKET
FUTURE PROJECTS:
9 Opera Business Centre: 6B Trang Tien Str.
GFA: 1,070sqm
Completion date: Q1 2007 CIPUTRA SHOPPING MALL
9 Pacific Place: 83B Ly Thuong Kiet Str.
GFA: 7,500sqm
Completion date: Q1/2007
9 Ruby Plaza: 44 Le Ngoc Han Str.
GFA: 3,300sqm
Completion date: Q1/2007
9 The Manor: My Dinh
GFA: 6,000sqm
Completion date: Q1/2007
9 The Garden: My Dinh
GFA: 20,500sqm
Completion date: Q1/2008
9 Viet Tower: 1 Thai Ha Str. Market Outlook:
GFA: 12,250sqm
Completion date: Q1/2008 9 WTO accession & the entry of foreign retailers
9 Ciputra Mall: Ciputra Hanoi Int’l City 9 New high- quality supply
4 levels 130,000sqm and 1 basement
9 Increasing Demand
Completion date: 2009
9 Hanoi City Complex: Lieu Giai – Dao Tan 9 New international brand-names coming to Vietnam
GFA: 50,000sqm 9 Rental rate increase for high- quality spaces
Completion date: 2010
80 80
30,000 70 70
60 60
25,000
No. of apartments
50 50
95
94
94
92
91
91
88
84
83
40 40
75
20,000
72
72
69
30 30
54
15,000 20 20
10 10
10,000 0 0
Hoan Kiem
Tu Liem
Gia Lam
Hai Ba Trung
Dong Da
Tay Ho
Ba Dinh
Thanh Xuan
Long Bien
Soc Son
Cau Giay
Hoang Mai
Thanh Tri
Dong Anh
5,000
-
Districts Hanoi City
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Year
Housing: % of apar tment
25 25
6,000
20 20
5,000
14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
15 15
29
26
26
4,000
24
24
No. of villas
10 10
15
3,000
11
5 5
6
5
4
2,000
1
0 0
Hoan Kiem
Hai Ba Trung
Dong Da
Tay Ho
Tu Liem
Gia Lam
Ba Dinh
Thanh Xuan
Long Bien
Soc Son
Cau Giay
Hoang Mai
Thanh Tri
Dong Anh
1,000
-
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Districts Hanoi City
Year
(Source: HAIDEP’study)
CB Richard Ellis | Page 72 (Source: CBRE)
HANOI RESIDENTIAL MARKET
S ale P r ice - Condos for sale F utur e S upply of Condos for sale
2,000 1,900
1,800 3,500
1,800
1,400
1,200 2,500
1,200
U S $ / s qm
2,000
1,000
U ni t s
800 800
800
1,500
600
1,000
400
200 500
0
Pacific The Manor Chelsea Hoa Binh Ciputra Golden 0
Place Park Int'l Towers Westlake 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Market Highlights:
- Foreign developers are interested in large projects
- Korean developers are very active and will be key players in future; Japanese developers
are also active
-Local developers dominate small and medium projects
20,000
9 Purchase finance
9 Infrastructure improvement
10,000
-
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
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